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1、Peter Pan12021/8/22A000002股票在明天還會(huì)上漲到今天為止,A000002股票出現(xiàn)三天連續(xù)上漲該股票出現(xiàn)三天連漲后,第四天也會(huì)上漲PremiseConclusion Assumption AssumptionAssumptionPremisePremiseConclusionConclusion22021/8/22A000002股票在明天還會(huì)上漲到今天為止,A000002股票出現(xiàn)三天連續(xù)上漲根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),該股票出現(xiàn)三天連漲后,第四天有80% 的情況都是上漲。這段時(shí)間該股票的運(yùn)行情況和以前第四天出現(xiàn)上漲的情況相似中國(guó)股市從來(lái)沒(méi)有規(guī)律32021/8/22Studying re

2、gularly is one factor that has been shown to improve ones performance on the SAT. Melissa took the SAT and Scored a 1500. If she studies several times a weak, Melissa can expect to improve her score.Melissa can expect to improve her score.Studying regularly is one factor that has been shown to impro

3、ve ones performance on the SAT. Melissa took the SAT and Scored a 1500. Studying several times a weak qualifies as studying regularly42021/8/22 AssumptionAssumptionPremisePremiseConclusionConclusion52021/8/22 stated pieces of information or evidence that generally provide support for the given concl

4、usion could be Facts, opinions, claims showing background telling a story Several industries have recently switched at least partly from older technologies powered by fossil fuels to new technologies powered by electricity. It is thus evident that less fossil fuel is being used as a result of the op

5、erations of these industries than would have been used if these industries had retained their older technologies. 62021/8/22PremiseConclusion AssumptionTherefore, As Therefore, As a a result, Suggests, result, Suggests, Indicates, Indicates, Accordingly, So, Accordingly, So, Consequently, Consequent

6、ly, Thus, Hence, It Thus, Hence, It follows thatfollows thatSinceSinceDue toDue toAs a result ofAs a result ofBecauseBecauseGiven thatGiven thatAsAs72021/8/22Manager: the new manufacturing process should save us time in the end,even though the first step of the five-step process will take twice as l

7、ong asit does under the old process. Far fewer of the components will be founddefective and the sole purpose of steps two and three under the old processis to weed out defective components. As a result, we should be able to eliminate two of the five steps in the existing manufacturing process.Which

8、of the following would be most useful in evaluating the claim made inthe argument?Therefore TestTherefore Test(1) X, therefore Y. If this works, Y is the conclusion.(2) Y, therefore X. If this works, X is the conclusion.X: The new process should save us time.X: The new process should save us time.Y:

9、 we should be able to eliminate two of the five steps in the Y: we should be able to eliminate two of the five steps in the processprocess.82021/8/22Curbing government spending has been demonstrated to raise the value of Curbing government spending has been demonstrated to raise the value of a a cou

10、ntrys countrys currency over time. However, many economists no longer currency over time. However, many economists no longer recommend recommend this policy. A currency of lesser value causes a countrys this policy. A currency of lesser value causes a countrys exports to exports to be more competiti

11、ve be more competitive in the international market, encouraging in the international market, encouraging domestic domestic industries industries and making the economy more attractive to foreign and making the economy more attractive to foreign investmentinvestment. .The The statements above most st

12、rongly support which of the statements above most strongly support which of the following following inferencesinferences? ?(A) Limited government spending can also lead to a reduction in A) Limited government spending can also lead to a reduction in the the national national deficit.deficit.(B) (B)

13、Curbing government spending can make a countrys exports Curbing government spending can make a countrys exports less less competitivecompetitive. .(C) Many economists now recommend higher levels of (C) Many economists now recommend higher levels of government spendinggovernment spending. .(D) (D) An

14、 increase in the value of a currency will result in reduced An increase in the value of a currency will result in reduced government spendinggovernment spending. .(E)Competitive exports indicate a-weak currency(E)Competitive exports indicate a-weak currency. .92021/8/22Curbing government spending ha

15、s been demonstrated to raise the value of Curbing government spending has been demonstrated to raise the value of a a countrys countrys currency over time. However, many economists no longer currency over time. However, many economists no longer recommend recommend this policy. A currency of lesser

16、value causes a countrys this policy. A currency of lesser value causes a countrys exports to exports to be more competitive be more competitive in the international market, encouraging in the international market, encouraging domestic domestic industries industries and making the economy more attrac

17、tive to foreign and making the economy more attractive to foreign investmentinvestment. .The The statements above most strongly support which of the statements above most strongly support which of the following following inferencesinferences? ?(A) Limited government spending can also lead to a A) Li

18、mited government spending can also lead to a reduction in reduction in the national the national deficit.deficit.(B) (B) Curbing government spending can make a Curbing government spending can make a countrys exports countrys exports less competitiveless competitive. .(C) Many economists now recommen

19、d higher levels of (C) Many economists now recommend higher levels of government spendinggovernment spending. .(D) (D) An increase in the value of a currency will An increase in the value of a currency will result in reduced result in reduced government spendinggovernment spending. .(E)Competitive e

20、xports indicate (E)Competitive exports indicate a weak a weak currencycurrency. .F F)Government Government investment investment can make a countrys can make a countrys exports less competitive.exports less competitive.超超出出前提討論范圍前提討論范圍超出前提討論范圍超出前提討論范圍偷換概念偷換概念因果倒置因果倒置因果倒置因果倒置102021/8/22 Increases in

21、the level of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) in the human bloodstream lower bloodstream-cholesterol levels by increasing the body capacity to rid itself of excess cholesterol. Levels of HDL in the bloodstream of some individuals are significantly increased by a program of regular exercise and weight

22、reduction. Which of the following can be correctly inferred from the statements above?A.Individuals who are underweight do not run any risk of developing high level of cholesterol in the bloodstream.B.Individuals who do not exercise regularly have a high risk of developing high level of cholesterol

23、in the bloodstream late in life.C.Exercise and weight reduction are the most effective methods of lowering bloodstream cholesterol levels in humans.D.A program of regular exercise and weight reduction lowers cholesterol levels in the bloodstream of some individuals.E.Only regular exercise is necessa

24、ry to decrease cholesterol levels in the bloodstream of individuals of average weight.112021/8/22The average fuel efficiency of vehicles sold nationwide during the period 2000-2004 was 25 miles per gallon; the corresponding figure during the period 1995-1999 was 20 miles per gallon. The national ave

25、rage price of gasoline during the period 2000-2004 was $2 per gallon; the corresponding figure during the period 1995-1999 was $1.60 per gallon.The statements above, if true, best support which of the following conclusions?(A) The average fuel efficiency of vehicles sold nationwide should reach 30 m

26、iles per gallon for the period 2005-2009.(B) The national average price of gasoline during 1997 was lower than the corresponding price during 2003.(C) Rising gasoline prices lead consumers to purchase more fuel-efficient cars.(D) Between the two described time periods, the national average fuel effi

27、ciency and the national average gasoline price both increased at roughly the same rate.(E) Consumers spent more money on gasoline during the period 2060-2004 than during the period 1995-1999.122021/8/22Logic fallacies132021/8/22In certain congested urban areas, commuters who use public transportatio

28、noptions, such as trains and subways, spend approximately 25 percent lesstime in transit, on average, to reach their destinations than commuters whotravel by car. Even individuals who drive their entire commute in carpoollanes, which are typically the least congested sections of roadways, stillspend

29、 more time, on average, than commuters who use trains and subways.The statements above, if true, best support which of the following assertions about commuting in the congested urban areas mentioned above?(A) Waiting in traffic accounts for approximately 25 percent of the commuting time for individu

30、als who drive to their destinations.(8) Walking between a subway or train station and ones final destination does not, on average, take longer than walking between ones car and ones final destination.(C) Using carpool lanes does not, on average, reduce driving time by morethan 25 percent.(D) Individ

31、uals who commute via public buses spend approximately 25 percent more time in transit than those who commute using public trains or subways.(E)Subways and trains are available in the majority of congested urban areas.142021/8/22152021/8/22(A) Viewers are more interested in sports and weather than in

32、 personal interest stories.(B) The programming content of Nighttime News is more closely aligned with the interests of the overall audience than is the content of World News.(C) Some World News viewers liked the new Nighttime News programming better than they liked the World News programming.(D) The

33、re are other possible causes for an increase in the number of viewers of Nighttime News, including a recent ad campaign that aired on many local affiliates.(E) The quality of World News will remain constant even if Nighttime News improves.For several years, Nighttime News attracted fewer viewers tha

34、n World News,which broadcasts its show at the same time as Nighttime News . Recently,the producers of Nighttime News added personal interest stories andincreased coverage of sports and weather. The two programs now have aroughly equal number of viewers. Clearly, the recent programming changespersuad

35、ed viewers to switch from World News to Nighttime News.Which of the following is an assumption on which the author relies?162021/8/22(1) bridge a gap between any premise and the conclusion, and(2) support/ strengthen/validate the conclusion.PremiseConclusion Assumption172021/8/22The local university

36、 recently hired a new soccer coach. Although she has several years worth of coaching experience and is a diligent student of the game, she was never a member of a collegiate soccer team. For this reason, the new coach will be unable to build a successful program.The argument above is based on which

37、of the following assumptions?(A) The local university should have hired a former collegiate soccer player as its new coach.(B) Coaching experience is one of the most crucial factors for coaching success.(C) The previous coach at the university was dismissed due to her lack of success(D) To build a s

38、uccessful soccer program as a coach, one must be a former collegiate soccer player.(E) The university does not plan to provide the new coach with the resources necessary to build a successful program. 緊跟緊跟結(jié)論,不能轉(zhuǎn)移話題重心結(jié)論,不能轉(zhuǎn)移話題重心182021/8/22緊跟結(jié)論緊跟結(jié)論When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession, p

39、eople tend to spendless money on discretionary purchases. Therefore, the perceived threat ofrecession decreases the willingness of people to purchase products that theyregard as optional or luxury goods.The argument above assumes that _(A) there are more luxury goods available after a recession is f

40、orecast(B) recently, the threat of recession has been increasingly publicized as newsperiodicals have grown more pervasive(C) most people do not regularly read news periodicals(D) peoples perception of the threat of recession increases when newsperiodicals begin forecasting a recession(E) the people

41、 who spent the most money before a recession was forecastwere among those who curtailed their spending after the recession becameapparent192021/8/22緊跟結(jié)論緊跟結(jié)論P(yáng)remiseConclusion AssumptionNews periodicals publish the forecast of a recessionPeople spend less money on discretionary itemsTherefore, the per

42、ceived threat causes people to spend less moneyAs a result, peoples perception of the threat of a recession increases As a result, peoples perception of the threat of a recession does not does not increases Negating any correct assumption will destroy the argument 202021/8/22緊跟結(jié)論緊跟結(jié)論Sam is currently

43、 the deputy mayor of Geneva County. Therefore, Sam should be the next mayor of Geneva when the current mayor retiresWhich of the following is an assumption on which the author relies?Imagine two possible answer choices:(A) Sam is the most honest person in the whole county.(B) The deputy mayor is alw

44、ays the best person to become the next mayor when a current mayor retires.Sam is NOT NECESSARILY the most honest person in the whole county.The deputy mayor is NOT NECESSARILY the best person to become the next mayor when a current mayor retires.212021/8/22Always. only. all: insert Not necessarily.

45、or Some . not in place of All.(B) Tomatoes are always red.LEN: Tomatoes are NOT NECESSARILY always red.Never. none, not one. not once: change to At least one or at least once.(D) Not one player was late for practice.LEN: AT LEAST ONE player was late for practice.Some, a few, several: change to No or

46、 None. (Notice that this may sound extreme)(A) Some cats purr when you pet them.LEN: NO cats purr when you pet them.Sometimes, on Occasion, often: change to Never. (Notice that this may sound extreme)(A) Cats sometimes purr when you pet them.LEN: Cats NEVER purr when you pet them.At least, at most.

47、more than, less than: change to the mathematically opposite term.(C) She has at least three different job offers.LEN: She has LESS THAN THREE different job offers.222021/8/22232021/8/22緊跟結(jié)論緊跟結(jié)論For several years, Nighttime News attracted fewer viewers than World News,which broadcasts its show at the

48、same time as Nighttime News Recently,the producers of Nighttime News added personal interest stories andincreased coverage of sports and weather. The two programs now have aroughly equal number of viewers. Clearly, the recent programming changespersuaded viewers to switch from World News to Nighttim

49、e News.Which of the following is an assumption on which the author relies?(A) Viewers are more interested in sports and weather than in personal interest stories.(B) The programming content of Nighttime News is more closely aligned with the interests of the overall audience than is the content of Wo

50、rld News.(C) Some World News viewers liked the new Nighttime News programming better than they liked the World News programming.(0) There are other possible causes for an increase in the number of viewers of Nighttime News, including a recent ad campaign that aired on many local affiliates.(E) The q

51、uality of World News will remain constant even if Nighttime News improves.242021/8/22Assumptions can serve to fill in a logic gapAssumptions can establish the feasibility of the premises of the argumentAssumptions can eliminate alternate paths to reach a given conclusionCategories of AssumptionSidne

52、ys get-rich-quick scheme is sure to succeed. He will buy Sidneys get-rich-quick scheme is sure to succeed. He will buy undervalued properties undervalued properties in foreclosure. Then he will resell the in foreclosure. Then he will resell the properties to properties to a local real estate a local

53、 real estate developer and generate large developer and generate large fits.Undervalued Undervalued properties exist in foreclosure properties exist in foreclosure and easily and easily can be found can be found and purchased by Sidney.and purchased by Sidney.252021/8/22Assumptions can se

54、rve to fill in a logic gapAssumptions can establish the feasibility of the premises of the argumentAssumptions can eliminate alternate paths to reach a given conclusionAssumptions can eliminate alternate causes for a given conclusion.Categories of AssumptionA magazine published an article proclaimin

55、g that one can get a A magazine published an article proclaiming that one can get a promotion by promotion by playing golf with ones boss. Kevin concludes that the playing golf with ones boss. Kevin concludes that the best way for him best way for him to get to get promoted is to take golf lessons a

56、nd join his promoted is to take golf lessons and join his bosss country clubbosss country club. .There There are no other better ways to gain a are no other better ways to gain a promotion than promotion than to play golf to play golf with ones boss.with ones boss.262021/8/22Assumptions can serve to

57、 fill in a logic gapAssumptions can establish the feasibility of the premises of the argumentAssumptions can eliminate alternate paths to reach a given conclusionAssumptions can eliminate alternate causes for a given conclusion.Categories of AssumptionScientists have discovered that people with Elme

58、rs disease have Scientists have discovered that people with Elmers disease have elevatedelevatedlevels of elastomer in their blood.levels of elastomer in their blood.The scientists concluded that a person without Elmers The scientists concluded that a person without Elmers disease but disease but wi

59、th elevated with elevated levels of elastomer in the blood is likely to develop levels of elastomer in the blood is likely to develop Elmers disease Elmers disease in the in the future.future.Correlation but not causationElmers disease is not the cause of the elastomer Elmers disease is not the caus

60、e of the elastomer levelslevels272021/8/22Economists have noticed that countries with more developed cultures ofEconomists have noticed that countries with more developed cultures ofentrepreneurship entrepreneurship and risk-taking have higher and risk-taking have higher economic economic growth rat

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