美賽E題解法思路

1、-作者xxxx-日期xxxx美賽E題解法思路【精品文檔】E題解法思路，2018年美賽題采用氣候統(tǒng)計模型此題容易獲獎，只要在網(wǎng)上收集世界各國的GDP，人口，氣溫，降水，糧食產(chǎn)量等數(shù)據(jù)，建立統(tǒng)計回歸模型，就能解決下面的幾個問題。任務(wù)1：開發(fā)一個模型來確定一個國家的脆弱性，同時測量氣候變化的影響。您的模型應(yīng)該識別一個狀態(tài)是脆弱的、脆弱的還是穩(wěn)定的。它還應(yīng)查明氣候變化如何通過直接手段或間接影響脆弱性，因為它影響其他因素和指標(biāo)。解法思路，采用氣候脆弱性統(tǒng)計模型任務(wù)2：選擇的前10名最脆弱國家的脆弱狀態(tài)指標(biāo)確定（/fsi/data/）和確定了氣候變化可能對國家的

2、脆弱性增加。使用你的模型來顯示，如果沒有這些影響，狀態(tài)可能會更脆弱。解法思路，采用最脆弱氣候統(tǒng)計模型任務(wù)3：把你的模型運(yùn)用到另一個不在前10位的狀態(tài)來衡量它的脆弱性，看看氣候變化會以什么方式以及何時促使它變得更脆弱。確定任何明確的指標(biāo)。你如何定義一個臨界點并預(yù)測一個國家什么時候能到達(dá)它？解法思路，采用脆弱氣候統(tǒng)計模型任務(wù)4：用你的模型說明哪些國家驅(qū)動的干預(yù)措施可以減輕氣候變化的風(fēng)險，防止一個國家成為脆弱的國家。解釋人類干預(yù)的效果并預(yù)測該國干預(yù)的總成本。解法思路，采用干預(yù)氣候統(tǒng)計模型任務(wù)5：您的模型將在較小的“國家”（如城市）或更大的“國家”（如大洲）上工作嗎？如果沒有，您將如何修改您的模型？解

3、法思路，采用局部氣候統(tǒng)計模型2018 ICM問題E：氣候變化如何影響區(qū)域不穩(wěn)定？氣候變化的影響，包括增加的干旱、冰川萎縮、動植物范圍的變化以及海平面的上升，已經(jīng)開始實現(xiàn)，并因地區(qū)而異。政府間氣候變化專門委員會指出，氣候變化的凈破壞成本可能是顯著的。許多這些影響將改變?nèi)祟惖纳罘绞?，并有可能?dǎo)致社會和政府結(jié)構(gòu)的削弱和崩潰。因此，不穩(wěn)定的政府，可能導(dǎo)致脆弱的國家。脆弱的國家是國家政府不能或不愿意為其人民提供基本必需品的地方。就這個問題而言，“國家”指的是一個主權(quán)國家或國家。作為一個脆弱的國家，增加了一個國家人口遭受自然災(zāi)害、減少耕地、不可預(yù)測的天氣和氣溫升高等氣候沖擊的脆弱性。不可持續(xù)的環(huán)保措施，

4、遷移，和資源短缺，這是常見的在發(fā)展中國家，可能進(jìn)一步加劇，國弱治理（施瓦茲和蘭達(dá)爾，2003；gleditsch特性，并buhaug，2013）?？梢哉f，敘利亞和也門的干旱進(jìn)一步加劇了已經(jīng)脆弱的國家。環(huán)境壓力本身并不一定引發(fā)暴力沖突，但有證據(jù)表明，當(dāng)它與薄弱的治理和社會分裂相結(jié)合時，它能引發(fā)暴力沖突。這種融合可以提高暴力的惡性循環(huán)，通常沿潛在的民族和政治分歧（krakowka，Heimel，和加爾加諾2012）。您的任務(wù)如下：任務(wù)1：開發(fā)一個模型來確定一個國家的脆弱性，同時測量氣候變化的影響。您的模型應(yīng)該識別一個狀態(tài)是脆弱的、脆弱的還是穩(wěn)定的。它還應(yīng)查明氣候變化如何通過直接手段或間接影響脆弱性

5、，因為它影響其他因素和指標(biāo)。任務(wù)2：選擇的前10名最脆弱國家的脆弱狀態(tài)指標(biāo)確定（/fsi/data/）和確定了氣候變化可能對國家的脆弱性增加。使用你的模型來顯示，如果沒有這些影響，狀態(tài)可能會更脆弱。任務(wù)3：把你的模型運(yùn)用到另一個不在前10位的狀態(tài)來衡量它的脆弱性，看看氣候變化會以什么方式以及何時促使它變得更脆弱。確定任何明確的指標(biāo)。你如何定義一個臨界點并預(yù)測一個國家什么時候能到達(dá)它？任務(wù)4：用你的模型說明哪些國家驅(qū)動的干預(yù)措施可以減輕氣候變化的風(fēng)險，防止一個國家成為脆弱的國家。解釋人類干預(yù)的效果并預(yù)測該國干預(yù)的總成本。任務(wù)5：您的模型將在較小的“國家

6、”（如城市）或更大的“國家”（如大洲）上工作嗎？如果沒有，您將如何修改您的模型？您提交的內(nèi)容應(yīng)包括：·一頁表，·你解不超過20頁，最多為你總結(jié)的21頁。·注：參考目錄和任何附件，不計入21頁的限制，應(yīng)該在完成解決方案之后出現(xiàn)。引用：2018 ICMProblem E: How does climate change influence regional instability?The effects of Climate Change, to include increased droughts, shrinking glaciers, changing anim

7、al and plant ranges, and sea level rise, are already being realized and vary from region to region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant. Many of these effects will alter the way humans live, and may have the

8、potential to cause the weakening and breakdown of social and governmental structures. Consequently, destabilized governments could result in fragile states.A fragile state is one where the state government is not able to, or chooses not to, provide the basic essentials to its people. For the purpose

9、 of this problem “state” refers to a sovereign state or country. Being a fragile state increases the vulnerability of a countrys population to the impact of such climate shocks as natural disasters, decreasing arable land, unpredictable weather, and increasing temperatures. Non-sustainable environme

10、ntal practices, migration, and resource shortages, which are common in developing states, may further aggravate states with weak governance (Schwartz and Randall, 2003; Theisen, Gleditsch, and Buhaug, 2013). Arguably, drought in both Syria and Yemen further exacerbated already fragile states. Enviro

11、nmental stress alone does not necessarily trigger violent conflict, but evidence suggests that it enables violent conflict when it combines with weak governance and social fragmentation. This confluence can enhance a spiral of violence, typically along latent ethnic and political divisions (Krakowka

12、, Heimel, and Galgano 2012).Your tasks are the following:Task 1: Develop a model that determines a countrys fragility and simultaneously measures the impact of climate change. Your model should identify when a state is fragile, vulnerable, or stable. It should also identify how climate change increa

13、ses fragility through direct means or indirectly as it influences other factors and indicators.Task 2: Select one of the top 10 most fragile states as determined by the Fragile State Index (/fsi/data/) and determine how climate change may have increased fragility of that countr

14、y. Use your model to show in what way(s) the state may be less fragile without these effects.Task 3: Use your model on another state not in the top 10 list to measure its fragility, and see in what way and when climate change may push it to become more fragile. Identify any definitive indicators. Ho

15、w do you define a tipping point and predict when a country may reach it?Task 4: Use your model to show which state driven interventions could mitigate the risk of climate change and prevent a country from becoming a fragile state. Explain the effect of human intervention and predict the total cost o

16、f intervention for this country.Task 5: Will your model work on smaller “states” (such as cities) or larger “states” (such as continents)? If not, how would you modify your model?Your submission should consist of:· One-page Summary Sheet,· Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maxi

17、mum of 21 pages with your summary.· Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 21-page limit andshould appear after your completed solution.References:Krakowka, A.R., Heimel, N., and Galgano, F. “Modeling Environmenal Security in Sub-SharanAfrica ProQuest.” The Geographical Bulletin, 2012, 53 (1): 21-38.Schwartz, P. and Randall, D. “An Abr