綜合環(huán)境承載能力的定量模型

1、綜合環(huán)境承載力的定量模型白宏濤環(huán)境承載力的表征 n環(huán)境承載力是在限制因子的約束條件下發(fā)展因子閾值矢量。 n發(fā)展因子和限制因子均可表示為n維空間的矢量：ndddd,21ncccc,21發(fā)展因子發(fā)展因子限制因子限制因子環(huán)境承載力的表征 n實際上，對某種限制因子，總有若干發(fā)展因子與之相關聯(lián)，其間存在某種反映發(fā)展因子與限制因子間關系的函數(shù) if)(iiidfc 環(huán)境承載力的表征 n研究區(qū)域內的環(huán)境承載力即為不突破限制因子閾值前提下，發(fā)展變量的閾值：ndddd,21*max( )( )ddcf dc矢量表征矢量表征優(yōu)化模型優(yōu)化模型環(huán)境承載力的計算n為方便數(shù)據(jù)收集和計算，通常將人口為方便數(shù)據(jù)收集和計算，通

2、常將人口O和產(chǎn)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值和產(chǎn)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值作為發(fā)展因子的度量。優(yōu)化模型簡化為：作為發(fā)展因子的度量。優(yōu)化模型簡化為：n因此，因此，確定函數(shù)確定函數(shù) 成為分析環(huán)境承載力的關鍵所在。成為分析環(huán)境承載力的關鍵所在。n灰色預測、多元統(tǒng)計回歸分析、線性規(guī)劃灰色預測、多元統(tǒng)計回歸分析、線性規(guī)劃 12*12max()max( )(,)miimPPPOcf dcdgO P PPif分析示例n已有數(shù)據(jù)（發(fā)展變量）已有數(shù)據(jù)（發(fā)展變量）人口人口Y1（萬人）（萬人）GDPY2（十億元）（十億元）工業(yè)增加值工業(yè)增加值Y3（十億元）（十億元）總用水量總用水量Y4（百萬（百萬m3）天然氣用量天然氣用量Y5(百萬百萬m3)電力用量電力

3、用量Y6（億（億度）度）道路建設里程道路建設里程Y7（百公里）（百公里）20006.703.492.876.409.52.433.0120017.807.287.157.7222.13.023.3720029.508.177.229.1639.34.083.91200311.029.958.1612.2746.25.104.56200412.3013.0612.3512.6751.15.754.74分析示例n已有數(shù)據(jù)（限制因子）已有數(shù)據(jù)（限制因子）PM10排放量排放量X1(千噸千噸)NOx排放量排放量X2(百噸百噸)廢水排放量廢水排放量X3（百萬（百萬m3）COD排放量排放量X4(百噸百噸)生

4、活垃圾產(chǎn)生生活垃圾產(chǎn)生量量X5（萬噸）（萬噸）夜間生活區(qū)夜間生活區(qū)聲級聲級X6(分貝分貝)工業(yè)用地工業(yè)用地X7（百公頃）（百公頃）20003.37212.204.455.253.4242.31.19520013.61114.685.446.194.1642.91.72720023.89117.006.467.204.8138.51.95520034.11218.418.768.295.6346.12.93420044.41819.769.069.626.3045.83.84灰色預測法預測變量dxdtxuxxtt( )( )( )( )111110 xxueukk1110( )( )()uB B

5、B YTT ()1時間序列變化趨勢擬合預測n人口:X(k1)= 5.9999072e0.14605459knGDP：X(k1)= 4.509584e0.206546k n工業(yè)增加值:X(k1)= 4.060246e0.20736k; n總用水量:X(k1)= 5.716658e0.1671115kn天然氣消耗: X(k1)= 17.82933e0.22048kn電力消耗:X(k1)= 2.170458e0.19982k ; n道路建設:X(k1)= 2.7711618e0.1125376knPM10排放量: X(k1)= 3.171937 e 0.06594946k nNOx排放量: X(k1

6、)= 12.482121 e0.094156kn廢水排放量:X(k1)= 3.984583e0.17227404knCOD排放量:X(k1)= 4.619788e0.1461757kn生活垃圾產(chǎn)生量: X(k1)= 3.17817908e0.1381162kn生活區(qū)夜間噪聲值:X(k1)= 45.293e0.0034896k n工業(yè)用地: X(k1)= 5.667029 e0.1490649k人口Y1（萬人）GDPY2（十億元）工業(yè)增加值Y3（十億元）總用水量Y4（百萬m3）天然氣用量Y5(百萬m3)電力用量Y6（億度）道路建設里程Y7（百公里）20006.703.492.876.409.52

7、.433.0120017.807.287.157.7222.13.023.3720029.508.177.229.1639.34.083.91200311.029.958.1612.2746.25.104.56200412.3013.0612.3512.6751.15.754.74200514.4115.5714.0915.5866.947.205.444200616.6819.1517.3418.4283.458.796.092200719.3023.5321.3221.76104.010.736.818200822.3428.9426.2525.72129.713.117.63200925

8、.8535.5732.2930.40161.716.018.539201029.9143.7339.7335.93201.619.559.556201134.6253.7748.8942.47251.323.8710.69201240.0666.1160.1550.19313.329.1511.97201346.3681.2874.0259.32390.635.613.39201453.6599.9691.0970.11486.943.4814.99201562.09122.8112.182.86607.053.0916.78201671.86151.0137.997.93756.764.84

9、18.77201783.16185.7169.6115.80943.479.1821.01201896.23228.3208.7136.80117696.6923.512019111.4280.7256.8161.701466118.126.312020128.9345.0315.9191.101828144.229.45社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展變量預測表社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展變量預測表 PM10排放量X1(千噸)NOx排放量X2(百噸)廢水排放量X3（百萬m3）COD排放量X4(百噸)生活垃圾產(chǎn)生量X5（萬噸）夜間生活區(qū)聲級X6(分貝)工業(yè)用地X7（百公頃）20003.37212.204.455.253.4242

10、.31.19520013.61114.685.446.194.1642.91.72720023.89117.006.467.204.8138.51.95520034.11218.418.768.295.6346.12.93420044.41819.769.069.626.3045.83.8420054.71221.9611.2111.107.2846.36.57820065.03324.1313.3112.858.3646.47.63520075.37626.5215.8114.889.6046.68.86320085.74229.1318.7817.2211.0246.710.2920096

11、.13432.0122.3219.9312.6546.911.9420106.55235.1626.5123.0614.5247.113.8620116.99938.6331.4926.6916.6747.216.0920127.47642.4537.4130.8919.1447.418.6820137.98646.6444.4535.7621.9847.621.6820148.5351.2552.8041.3925.2347.725.1620159.11156.3062.7347.9028.9747.929.2120169.73361.8774.5255.4533.2648.133.9201

12、710.3967.9788.5764.1738.1848.239.35201811.1174.68105.1874.2743.8448.445.68201911.8682.05124.9385.9650.3348.653.02202012.6790.15148.4299.5357.7948.761.54社會經(jīng)濟限制因子預測表社會經(jīng)濟限制因子預測表 多元統(tǒng)計回歸分析法構建函數(shù)n以PM10排放量為例，EXCEL工具擬合n假設因變量和解釋變量主要是線性關系nMarkov模型中的誤差相互獨立n誤差服從正態(tài)分布并具有等變異性01 122yxx77 +x回歸結果討論三個問題：問題問題1：選擇的解釋變量能否

13、足以解釋因變量的變化？：選擇的解釋變量能否足以解釋因變量的變化？回歸統(tǒng)計回歸統(tǒng)計Multiple RMultiple R0.9999960.999996R SquareR Square0.9999920.999992Adjusted R SquareAdjusted R Square0.9999880.999988標準誤差標準誤差0.0100360.010036觀測值觀測值2121R2=SSR/SST殘差SSE=SST-SSR R2度量了回歸模型中解釋變度量了回歸模型中解釋變量所解釋的量所解釋的y y變異的比例（相變異的比例（相對測度）對測度）回歸結果討論三個問題：問題問題2：解釋變量與因變量

14、是否可以用線性函數(shù)來描述？：解釋變量與因變量是否可以用線性函數(shù)來描述？方差分析方差分析dfdfSSSSMSMSF FSignificance Significance F F回歸分析7 7163.0548163.054823.2935423.29354231245.1231245.14.44E-324.44E-32殘差13130.001310.001310.0001010.000101總計2020163.0561163.0561Significance F是個非常小的概率，不能拒絕是個非常小的概率，不能拒絕“因變量與至少一個解釋變量因變量與至少一個解釋變量之間存在線性關系之間存在線性關系”的假

15、設。的假設?；貧w結果討論三個問題：問題問題3：是否每個解釋變量都對因變量存在顯著影響？：是否每個解釋變量都對因變量存在顯著影響？CoefficieCoefficientsnts標準誤差標準誤差t Statt StatP-valueP-valueLower 95%Lower 95%Upper 95%Upper 95%下限下限 95.0%95.0%上限上限 95.0%95.0%InterceptIntercept0.9781990.9781990.0464380.04643821.0647821.064781.97E-111.97E-110.8778770.8778771.0785221.0785

16、220.8778770.8778771.0785221.078522Y1Y1-0.08775-0.087750.0279390.027939-3.14067-3.140670.0078110.007811-0.14811-0.14811-0.02739-0.02739-0.14811-0.14811-0.02739-0.02739Y2Y20.1535820.1535820.0852680.0852681.8011751.8011750.0949050.094905-0.03063-0.030630.3377910.337791-0.03063-0.030630.3377910.337791Y3

17、Y3-0.06564-0.065640.0613210.061321-1.07046-1.070460.3038850.303885-0.19812-0.198120.0668340.066834-0.19812-0.198120.0668340.066834Y4Y4-0.27356-0.273560.0332870.033287-8.21816-8.218161.66E-061.66E-06-0.34547-0.34547-0.20165-0.20165-0.34547-0.34547-0.20165-0.20165Y5Y5-0.01623-0.016230.0032980.003298-4

18、.92079-4.920790.000280.00028-0.02335-0.02335-0.0091-0.0091-0.02335-0.02335-0.0091-0.0091Y6Y60.2347680.2347680.0362150.0362156.4826086.4826082.06E-052.06E-050.156530.156530.3130050.3130050.156530.156530.3130050.313005Y7Y71.3191531.3191530.0505290.05052926.106726.10671.29E-121.29E-121.2099911.2099911.

19、4283151.4283151.2099911.2099911.4283151.428315剔除不顯著變量的回歸結果回歸統(tǒng)計回歸統(tǒng)計Multiple RMultiple R0.9999960.999996R SquareR Square0.9999910.999991Adjusted R SquareAdjusted R Square0.9999880.999988標準誤差標準誤差0.0100890.010089觀測值觀測值2121方差分析方差分析dfdfSSSSMSMSF FSignificance FSignificance F回歸分析回歸分析6 6163.0547163.054727.1

20、7578275267003.51.4E-341.4E-34殘差殘差14140.0014250.0014250.0001020.000102總計總計2020163.0561163.0561剔除不顯著變量的回歸結果CoefficCoefficienientsts標準誤標準誤差差t Statt StatP-valueP-valueLower Lower 95%95%Upper Upper 95%95%下限下限 95.95.0%0%上限上限 95.95.0%0%IntercepIntercept t0.988990.988991 10.045560.045566 621.70

21、4721.70473.54E-3.54E-12120.891260.891262 21.086721.086720.891260.891262 21.086721.08672Y1Y1- -0.10.10820821 10.020480.020486 6- -5.25.28188189 90.000110.000116 6- -0.10.15215214 4- -0.00.06426427 7- -0.10.15215214 4- -0.00.06426427 7Y2Y20.062490.062490.005430.005434 411.500511.50053 31.61E-1.61E-080

22、80.050830.050836 60.074140.074144 40.050830.050836 60.074140.074144 4Y4Y4- -0.20.24084082 20.013200.013201 1- -18.18.2422427 73.73E-3.73E-1111- -0.20.26916913 3-0.2125-0.2125- -0.20.26916913 3-0.2125-0.2125Y5Y5- -0.00.01311313 30.001590.00159- -8.28.25755756 69.45E-9.45E-0707- -0.00.01651654 4- -0.0

23、0.00970972 2- -0.00.01651654 4- -0.00.00970972 2Y6Y60.244990.244997 70.035110.035113 36.977376.977377 76.48E-6.48E-06060.169680.169687 70.320300.320307 70.169680.169687 70.320300.320307 7剔除不顯著變量的回歸結果限制因子限制因子PMPM1010排放量與發(fā)展變量的函數(shù)關系可排放量與發(fā)展變量的函數(shù)關系可初步表示為：初步表示為：X1=0.9890-0.1082y1+0.06249y2- 0.2408y4- 0.013

24、13y5 + 0.2450y6 + 1.316y7殘差分析n線性的判斷X1與sin（yi）的殘差分析X1與sin（yi）的分析CoefficCoefficienientsts標準誤標準誤差差t Statt StatP-valueP-valueLower Lower 95%95%Upper Upper 95%95%下限下限 95.95.0%0%上限上限 95.95.0%0%IntercepIntercept t6.183866.183863 30.938400.938406 66.589756.589751 11.21E-1.21E-05054.171184.171182 28.196548.1

25、96545 54.171184.171182 28.196548.196545 5y1y11.257141.257147 71.282931.282934 40.97990.97990.343760.343766 6- -1.41.49449447 74.008764.008767 7- -1.41.49449447 74.008764.008767 7y2y2- -3.43.44954953 32.356072.356074 4-1.4641-1.46410.165250.165258 8-8.5028-8.50281.603751.603751 1-8.5028-8.50281.60375

26、1.603751 1y4y4- -0.00.07177178 81.179911.179911 1- -0.00.06086083 30.952350.952353 3- -2.62.60240243 32.458882.458882 2- -2.62.60240243 32.458882.458882 2y5y51.877731.877731.553211.553211 11.208931.208934 40.246710.24671- -1.41.45355358 85.209035.209037 7- -1.41.45355358 85.209035.209037 7- -1.81.86036034 4- -1.81.86036034 4如何處理？殘差分析n正態(tài)性檢驗當當n n不是足夠大時，利用殘差的正態(tài)概率圖來檢不是足夠大時，利用殘差的正態(tài)概率圖來檢驗誤差的正態(tài)性。驗誤差的正態(tài)性。最終的回歸結果限制因子限制因子PMPM1010排放量與發(fā)展變量的函數(shù)關系表排放量與