歷史學(xué)專業(yè)英語(yǔ)07-Counterfactual_history

1、編輯pptCounterfactual historyDr Mark J Crowley編輯pptKey questions Are counterfactual claims avoidable? Is it a good method of historical inquiry? Can it be considered as serious history?編輯pptTypes of counterfactuals Use different models to predict outcomes “miracle” and “plausible” counterfactuals “his

2、torical consistency” Quantitative methods dont often work編輯pptThe approach Good reasoning (can be grounded in FACT) Bad reasoning (imagination) Implicit suggestions編輯pptNiall Ferguson how are we to distinguish between probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? . We should consider plausi

3、ble or probable only those alternatives which we can show on the basis of contemporary evidence that contemporaries actually considered.”編輯pptExamples If only the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinands driver had met a well-meaning man in the Sarajevo street in June 1914.no First World War, no Hitler, n

4、o Stalin, no nuclear weapons, no Sarajevo crisis (1990s)“ Simon Schama 編輯pptExamples every historian who has set out to deal with the causes of the Civil War . has implicitly or explicitly presumed what would have happened to slavery if some events had unfolded in a way that was different from the a

5、ctual course.” Robert Fogel編輯pptProblems Conclusions based on models rather than evidence History does not have enough information at all times編輯pptWhy use counterfactual? Try to see an alternative path Try to predict the future Answer “what if” questions Establish causal effects編輯pptWhere is it use

6、d? Counterfactual used in many disciplines: Political science Psychology History Philosophy Computer science編輯pptConclusion speculations that are to be judged by their creativity operating under the constraints of professional expertise. In straight history, we have what is a straightforward answer, even if it is