物流與供應(yīng)鏈管理（設(shè)定服務(wù)水平）-

1、物流與供應(yīng)鏈管理、沖浪板等水上運(yùn)動裝備的設(shè)計(jì)和制造商。比恩公司的需求需側(cè)(女士紅色滑雪衫Bean公司訂貨數(shù)量與總體預(yù)期收益關(guān)系曲線 Impact of Improving Forecasts (ExampleImpact of Improving Forecasts成本/收益預(yù)測的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為了滿足即將到來的冬季對羊絨披肩的需求,塞克斯公司的采2010/11/19 Quick Response Set of actions taken by managers to reduce lead time Reduced lead time results in improved forecasts Ty

2、pical example of quick response is multiple orders in one season for retail items (such as fashion clothing For example, a buyer can usually make very accurate forecasts after the fi t week or two in a season ft th first k t i Multiple orders are only possible if the lead time is reduced otherwise t

3、here wouldnt be enough time to get the later orders before the season ends Quick Response: Multiple Orders Per Season Ordering shawls at a department store Selling season = 14 weeks Cost per handbag = $40 Sale price = $150 Disposal price = $30 Holding cost = $2 per week Benefits: Lower order quantit

4、ies availability Less overstock Higher profits 12-31 less inventory, same product Expected weekly demand = 20 SD of weekly demand = 15 12-32 Impact of Quick Response Single Order Two Orders in Season Average Ending Expect. Invent. Profit Total Order 349 69 $26,590 342 332 319 313 302 60 52 43 36 32

5、$27,085 $27 085 $27,154 $26,944 $27,413 $26,916 Service Order Ending Expect. Initial OUL Level Size Invent. Profit Order for 2nd Order 0.96 378 97 $23,624 209 209 0.94 0 94 0.91 0.87 0.81 0.75 367 355 343 329 317 86 73 66 55 41 $24,034 $24 034 201 $24,617 193 $24,386 184 $24,609 174 $25,205 166 201

6、193 184 174 166 (1在相同的周期供給水平下，在銷售季節(jié)里分兩次訂購 的預(yù)期總總訂貨量少于 次訂購的預(yù)期總訂貨量。換句話說如果允許在銷售 季節(jié)里訂購后續(xù)的第二批貨 物，那么公司就課能以更少的庫存量向顧客提供向樣的 能 庫存 向 客 向樣 產(chǎn)品供給水平。 (2如果允許分兩次訂貨，那么在銷售季節(jié)結(jié)束時(shí)需要處 理的平均庫存剩余量少 一次訂貨時(shí)的平均庫存剩余量。 (3如果允許在銷售季節(jié)分兩次訂貨，那么其利潤高于 一次訂貨時(shí)的利潤。 12-33 Forecast Improves for Second Order (SD=3 Instead of 15 Single Order Two O

7、rders in Season Average Ending Expect. Total Invent. Profit Order 292 19 $27,007 293 288 288 283 282 18 17 14 14 14 $27,371 $26,946 $27,583 $27,162 $27,268 Service Order Ending Expect. Initial OUL Level Size Invent. Profit Order for 2nd Order 0.96 378 96 $23,707 209 153 0.94 0.91 0.87 0.81 0.75 367

8、355 343 329 317 84 76 63 52 44 $24,303 201 $24,154 193 $24,807 184 $24,998 174 $24,887 166 152 150 148 146 145 12-36 6 2010/11/19 Postponement 快速反應(yīng)帶來什么問題？ Delay of product differentiation until closer to the time of the sale of the product All activities prior to product differentiation require aggr

9、egate forecasts more accurate than individual product forecasts Individual product forecasts are needed close to the time of sale demand is known with better accuracy (lower uncertainty Results in a better match of supply and demand Valuable in e-commerce time lag between when an order is placed and

10、 when customer receives the order (this delay is expected by the customer and can be used for postponement Higher profits, better match of supply and demand 12-38 延遲策略： 1、延遲策略是指將產(chǎn)品的差異性延遲到接近產(chǎn)品銷售時(shí) 才發(fā)生。 集中預(yù)測、預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性比單個產(chǎn)品的高 2、延遲策略可以成為增加贏利能力的 個有效管理杠桿 2、延遲策略可以成為增加贏利能力的一個有效管理杠桿 3、延遲策略的最大益處來自于供給與需求的匹配水平的 提高。

11、4、采用延遲策略的產(chǎn)品成本要比不采用延遲策略的產(chǎn)品 成本高。 5、延遲策略對于那些銷售多種產(chǎn)品、產(chǎn)品的市場需求量 較大且互不影響的公司頗有價(jià)值 案例分析一： 貝納通公司是一家生產(chǎn)針織服裝的公司，它可以采用二 種方式生產(chǎn)服裝。第一種：先對棉紗進(jìn)行染色，然后再 編織成衣。第二種：先編織成衣，然后進(jìn)行染色零售價(jià) P=50 美元。第一種方法成本 20美元 第二種方法 P 50 美元 第 種方法成本 c=20美元，第二種方法 c=22美元，殘值s=10美元。生產(chǎn)周期為 20 周，需求均值 為1000，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為500 問題：延遲策略的收益增加量？ Value of Postponement: Benett

12、on For each color Mean demand = 1,000; SD = 500 For each garment Sale price = $50 Salvage value = $10 Production cost using Option 1 (long lead time = $20 Production cost using Option 2 (uncolored thread = $22 紅色針織衫的市場需求量服從均值3100,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差 為800的正態(tài)分布，其他三種顏色的針織衫的市 場需求服從均值為300，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為200的正態(tài)分布 。 零售價(jià) P=50 美元 第一種方

13、法成本 c=20美元，第二種方法 c=22美 元 殘值s=10美元 問題：延遲策略的收益增加量？ What is the value of postponement? Expected profit increases from $94,576 to $98,092 12-41 7 2010/11/19 Value of Postponement with Dominant Product Color with dominant demand: Mean = 3,100, SD = 800 Other three colors: Mean = 300, SD = 200 Expected pr

14、ofit without postponement = $102,205 Expected profit with postponement = $99,872 案例分析三： 問題： 1、能否采用量身定做的延遲策略，即對于不確 定的 市場需求，公司采用延遲策略進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)，而對于 確定市場 需求，公司采用成本更低的生產(chǎn)方式進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)？ 2、如果存在這樣的策略，如何進(jìn)行定量分析？ 3、如何通過EXCEL表格來仿真這些策略 12-43 Tailored Postponement: Benetton Produce Q1 units for each color using Option 1 and QA

15、 units (aggregate using Option 2 Results: Q1 = 800 QA = 1,550 Profit = $104,603 Tailored Sourcing A firm uses a combination of two supply sources One is lower cost but is unable to deal with uncertainty well The other is more flexible, and can therefore deal with uncertainty, but is higher cost The

16、two sources must focus on different capabilities Depends on being able to have one source that faces very low uncertainty and can therefore reduce costs Increase profits, better match supply and demand Tailored postponement allows a firm to increase profits by postponing differentiation only for pro

17、ducts with the most uncertain demand; products with more predictable demand are produced at lower cost without 12-45 postponement 12-46 Tailored Sourcing Sourcing alternatives Low cost, long lead time supplier Cost = $245, Lead time = 9 weeks Tailored Sourcing Strategies Fraction of demand from over

18、seas supplier 0% 50% 60% 100% Annual Profit $37,250 $51,613 $51 613 $53,027 $48,875 High cost, short lead time supplier Cost = $250, Lead time = 1 week 12-47 12-48 8 2010/11/19 Tailored Sourcing: Multiple Sourcing Sites Characteristic Primary Site Secondary Site Low Low Low Low Dual Sourcing Strategies Strategy Primary Site Secondary Site Stable demand Predictable, large batch products Older stable products Manufacturing High Cost Flexibility High (Volume/Mix Responsiveness High Engineering Support 12-49 High Volume based Fluctuation dual sourcing P