標普指數(shù)1927-2013歷年收益率

1、Retur ns by yearPage 1Retur ns by yearUpdated on#Customixed Geometric risk premium estimatorWhat is your riskfree rate? LTEstimates of risk premiumsEn ter your start ing year1929are providedat the bottom(Value of stocks in starti ng year:143.81116Value of T.Bills in starting year:103.08Value ofbonds

2、 in start ing year:100.83547Estimate of risk premium based on your in puts:4.22%Annual Retur ns on Inv estme nts in：Compo un ded Valueof $ 100Y ear:3&P 30month T.B10-year T. Bon:StocksT.BillsT.Bonds1928#3.08%0.84%$ 143.81$ 103.08$100.841929#3.16%4.20%$ 131.88$ 106.34$105.071930#P 4.55%4.54% :$ 9

3、8.75$ 111.18$109.851931#2.31%-2.56%$ 55.46$ 113.74$107.031932#r 1.07%8.79% :$ 50.66$ 114.96$116.441933#0.96%1.86%$ 75.99$ 116.06$ 118.601934#r 0.32%7.96%$ 75.09$ 116.44$128.051935#0.18%4.47%$ 110.18$ 116.64$133.781936#0.17%5.02%$ 145.38$ 116.84$140.491937#P 0.30%1.38% n$ 94.00$ 117.19$142.431938#0.0

4、8%4.21%$ 121.53$ 117.29$148.431939#r 0.04%4.41%$ 120.20$ 117.33$154.981940#0.03%5.40%$ 107.37$ 117.36$163.351941#r 0.08%-2.02% :$ 93.66$ 117.46$160.041942#0.34%2.29%$ 111.61$ 117.85$163.721943#0.38%2.49%$ 139.59$ 118.30$167.791944#10.38%2.58%$ 166.15$ 118.75$172.121945#0.38%3.80%$ 225.67$ 119.20$178

5、.671946#P 0.38%3.13%$ 206.65$ 119.65$184.2619475.20%0.57%0.92%$ 217.39$ 120.33$185.9519485.70%r 1.02%1.95% :$ 229.79$ 121.56$189.581949#1.10%4.66%$ 271.85$ 122.90$198.421950#1.17%0.43%$ 355.60$ 124.34$199.271951#P 1.48%-0.30%T$ 439.80$ 126.18$198.6811952#1.67%2.27%$ 519.62$ 128.29$203.191953#P 1.89%

6、4.14% :$ 513.35$ 130.72$ 211.611954#0.96%3.29%$ 783.18$ 131.98$218.571955#:1.66%-1.34% :#$ 134.17$215.6519567.44%2.56%-2.26%#$ 137.60$210.79from 1928, over the last of this table.Page 2Retur ns by year1957#3.23%6.80%$ 999.05$ 142.04$225.111958#P 1.78%-2.10% :#P $ 144.57$220.391959#3.26%-2.65%#$ 149.

7、27$214.5619600.34%P 3.05% :11.64%#:$ 153.82$239.531961#2.27%2.06%#$ 157.30$244.461962#2.78%5.69%#$ 161.67$258.381963#P 3.11%1.68% :#:$ 166.70$262.741964#3.51%3.73%#$ 172.54$272.531965#:3.90% :0.72% :#:$ 179.28$274.491966#4.84%2.91%#$ 187.95$282.471967#4.33%-1.58%#$ 196.10$278.011968#r 5.26% d3.27% :

8、#$ 206.41$287.111969#6.56%-5.01%#$ 219.96$272.7119703.56%r 6.69% :16.75% :#$ 234.66$318.411971#4.54%9.79%#$ 245.32$349.571972#3.95%2.82%#$ 255.01$359.421973#P 6.73% d3.66% n#$ 272.16$372.571974#7.78%1.99%#$ 293.33$379.981975#P 5.99% 13.61%#$ 310.90$393.681976#4.97%15.98%#$ 326.35$456.611977#5.13%1.2

9、9%#$ 343.09$462.5019786.51%6.93%-0.78%#$ 366.87$458.901979#9.94%0.67%#$ 403.33$461.981980#11.22%-2.99%#$ 448.58$448.171981#14.30%8.20%#$ 512.73$484.911982#r 11.01%:32.81% 1#$ 569.18$644.041983#8.45%3.20%#$ 617.26$664.6519846.15%9.61%13.73%#$ 676.60$755.921985#P 7.49%25.71% :#$ 727.26$950.291986#6.04

10、%24.28%#$ 771.15$1,181.0619875.81%:5.72% :-4.96% :#$ 815.27$1,122.471988#6.45%8.22%#$ 867.86$1,214.781989#8.11%17.69%#$ 938.24$1,429.721990#P 7.55% n6.24%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$1,518.871991#5.61%15.00%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$1,746.7719927.49%:

11、3.41% :9.36% :#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$1,910.3019939.97%2.98%14.21%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$2,181.7719941.33%3.99%-8.04%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff$2,006.431995#P 5.52%23.48%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf T

12、f T7ff$2,477.551996#5.02%1.43%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$2,512.941997#:5.05% :9.94% :#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$2,762.711998#4.73%14.92%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$3,174.951999#4.51%-8.25%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7

13、ff Tf Tf T7ff$2,912.882000#5.76%16.66%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$3,398.032001#3.67%5.57%#if if if if if if if if if T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$3,587.372002#1.66%15.12%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$4,129.652003#1.03%0.38%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf

14、T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$4,145.152004#1.23%4.49% :#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$4,331.3020054.83%3.01%2.87%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$4,455.502006#4.68%1.96%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$4,542.8720075.48%4.64%10.21%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff

15、ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$5,006.692008#1.59%20.10% 1#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$6,013.10 12009#0.14%-11.12% :#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$5,344.652010#0.13%8.46%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$5,796.9620112.10%0.03%16.04% :#ff ff ff

16、 ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$6,726.522012#0.05%2.97%#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$6,926.402013#0.07%-9.10% :#ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff ff T7ff Tf T7ff Tf Tf T7ff$6,295.79Risk PremiumArithmetic AverageStocks - T.BiStocks - T.Bo1928-2013#3.57%5.21% 丁7.93%6.29%1964-201

17、3#5.11%6.97%6.18%4.32%2004-20139.10%1.56%4.69% :7.55%4.41%Risk PremiumnGeometric AverageStocks - T.BiStocks - T.Bo1928-20139.55%3.53%4.93%6.02%4.62%1964-20139.89%5.07%6.56% :P4.83%3.33%2004-20137.34%1.54%4.27%5.80%3.07%Page 5Retur ns by yearPage 6Retur ns by yearms f he bottom oStocks - BilStocks -

18、BorHistorical risk premium40.73%42.98%-11.46%-12.50%-29.67%-29.66%-46.15%-41.28%1-9.71%-17.43%149.02%48.13%-1.51%-9.15%46.57%42.27%131.77%26.93%I-35.64%-36.72%29.21%25.07%-1.14%-5.51%1-10.70%-16.08%-12.85%-10.75%18.84%16.88%I!124.68%22.57%118.65%16.45%35.44%32.02%:;-8.81%-11.56%14.63%4.28%4.68%3.75%

19、117.20%13.64%29.63%30.38%22.20%23.97%116.48%15.88%-3.10%-5.35%51.60%49.27%i30.94%33.93%I4.88%9.70%Page 7Retur ns by year-13.69%-17.25%41.94%45.82%8.80%14.70%-2.71%-11.30%6.11%124.37%24.58%6.62%-11.59%-14.51%5.97%19.50%20.93%6.36%112.91%12.69%6.53%:8.50%11.68%6.66%1-14.81%-12.88%6.11%119.47%25.38%6.5

20、7%5.55%7.54%6.60%1 I-14.80%-3.23%6.33%1-3.12%-13.19%5.90%:9.68%4.43%5.87%14.80%15.94%6.08%1i-21.03%-17.97%5.50%1-33.68%-27.89%4.64%i31.01%33.39%5.17%118.86%7.85%5.22%-12.11%-8.27%4.93%一 j 一 -. -0.42%7.29%4.97%18.58%17.85%5.21%120.52%34.72%5.73%-19.00%-12.90%5.37%丄9.41%-12.40%5.10%13.89%19.14%5.34%-3.47%-7.59%5.12%23.75%5