歐洲互聯(lián)網(wǎng)與媒體行業(yè)這就是我所說(shuō)的音樂(lè)趨勢(shì)

1、COREEquity Research30 August 2019Internet & MediaNow thats what I call music trends,Vol. 13e to the 13th edition of our monthly music product, Now thats what I call music trends. Every month, we look at volume or revenue trends in the worlds five main music markets, France, Germany, Japan, the U

2、K and the US. We use the historical correlations among these five main markets plus Spotify charts data on UMG artists and (1) UMGs organic growth (streaming and recorded music) and (2) Spotifys revenue growth (reported and constant currency) to inform our quarterly forecasts. We have also collated

3、what we think are last months most interesting articles on the music industry.New analyses (future frequency): UMGs streaming market share among Spotifys Top 200 streams (recurring); focus on China (quarterly); focus on India (monthly).Versus last month: France is better, Germany is better, the UK i

4、s better, Japan is worse, and the US is worse.France: Year-to-July, volumes are up 9.9% in Stream Equivalent Album terms (Album + Single / 10 + Streams / 1,500) with physical volume down 7.7%, download down 21.2% and streaming up 24.1%. Year-to-June volumes were up 8.6%.Germany: Year-to-July, volume

5、s are up 12.7% in Stream Equivalent Album terms (Album + Single / 10 + Streams / 1,500), with physical down 10.9%, download down 16.7% and streaming up 37.1%. Year-to-June volumes were up 11.7%.Japan: Year-to-July, the Japanese market is up 1.3% but this is not representative of underlying trends (e

6、xplanation inside). Adjusted growth would be down 3.0%.UK: Year-to-July, volumes are up 8.7% in Stream Equivalent Album terms (Album + Single / 10 + Streams / 1,000), with volume down 20.4%, download down 26.4% and streaming up 25.8%. Year-to-June, volumes were up 8.0%.US: Year-to-July, volumes are

7、up 11.7% in Stream Equivalent Album terms (Album + Single / 10 + Streams / 1,500), with physical down 15.8%, download down 25.4% and audio streaming up 27.3%. Year-to-June, volumes were up 11.9%.UMG: The historical quarterly correlation between these five countries and UMGs organic growth in recorde

8、d revenues points to 20% growth in Q3. This is unlikely to happen however (explanations inside) nonetheless there could be some upside to our 11% recorded forecast (13% overall).Spotify: Our analysis points to 28.6% growth for Spotify in 3Q19E. This compares with our 27.4% forecast and guidance of 1

9、6-31%.INDUSTRY UPDATEEuropean MediaNEUTRALUnchangedU.S. Internet POSITIVE UnchangedEuropean Media Julien Roch+44 (0)20 3134 3323julien Barclays, UKEmily Johnson+44 (0)20 7116 0840emily.jo Barclays, UKU.S. Internet Ross Sandlerross.sa BCI, USU.S. Cable, Satellite & Kannan VenkateshwarServiceskann

10、an.venkate BCI, USInvestment SciencesBen McSkelly+44 (0)20 3555 3606ben.mcs Barclays, UKBarclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that thefirm may have aof interest that coul

11、d affect the objectivity of this report. Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts

12、with FINRA.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 25.Restricted - Internal獲取報(bào)告1、2、3、每周群內(nèi)7+報(bào)告；當(dāng)日華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)、4、行研報(bào)告均為公開(kāi)利歸原作者所有，起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)僅分發(fā)做內(nèi)部學(xué)習(xí)。掃一掃關(guān)注 回復(fù)：加入“起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)”群。Barclays | Internet & MediaEverything you need to know in one chartThe figure below summarises every rel

13、evant numerical data point in this report. The first five columns are year-to-date 2019 volume data for the five main markets (except Japan which shows revenues). The two relevant pieces of information are growth and whether trends are improving (France, Germany, UK), staying the same, or getting wo

14、rse (Japan and the US). Then we show what year-to-date volume trends imply for (1) FY19E worldwide growth (8.8%, in line with our 9.2% forecast); (2) UMG 3Q19E recorded organic growth (20.4%, above our 11.3% forecast); and (3) Spotify 3Q19E reported revenue growth (28.6%, above our 27.4% forecast).F

15、IGURE 1 Forget the Top 10, this is the only chart you needFrance Vol YTDSources: GfK, RIAJ, Nielsen, BPI, BVMI, Barclays ResearchBefore Vivendi bulls get in a frenzy, there are several reasons why we believe 20% is unlikely to be the right growth rate for UMG recorded in Q3. Firstly, we note that Au

16、gust and September have tougher comps for all countries, so we do not expect July trends to be entirely representative of the quarter. Secondly, for UMG recorded music organic to be 20.4%, UMG would need 29% growth in Physical revenues assuming that (1) our streaming organic forecast of 24% is accur

17、ate (in line with the previous regression examined) (2) - 12% decline in other digital (i.e. best performance in the last two years) and (3) +19% in Licence (i.e. best performance in the last two years). On this basis, it appears that the regression is pointing to too high an organic growth rate for

18、 Q3 based on July trends. Thegreatest difference between the results of the regression formula and actuale hasbeen 6 points which would point to 14% growth in Q3. This is still better than our 11% forecast.Monthly trends for major marketsFrance2019 year-to-date (July), volumes are up 9.9% in Stream

19、Equivalent Album terms (Album + Single / 10 + Streams / 1,500) with physical volume down 7.7%, download down 21.2% and streaming up 24.1%. Year-to-June, volumes were up 8.6%. This acceleration is due to a strong July, +18%, but this is largely due to comps, +4% in 2018. The two-year run-rate has act

20、ually slowed (22% in July versus 26% in June, 25% in May and 25% in April). In 2018, volumes were up 10.8% with physical down 7.4%, download down 22.0% and streams up 35.6%.30 August 201928.6%9.9%Barclays | Internet & MediaFIGURE 2 Volume monthly trends FranceYear-on-year growth in Streaming Equ

21、ivalent Album termsSEA = Album + Single / 10 + Streams / 1,500-4%Sources: GfK, Barclays ResearchWhile 9.9% sounds positive, tradee has actually grown at a lower rate than volume inrecent periods. The figure below shows that volumes grew about 9% more than revenues in 2018 compared to a 7% gap in 201

22、7. However, in 1H19 trade revenues grew broadly in line with revenues. On this basis, industry revenues should be up around 9-10% in 2019E based on the first seven months.FIGURE 3 Volume vs. trade15.2%e France8.7.8%5.5%-2.3% 1H172H1Sources: GfK, SNEP, Barclays ResearchGermany2019 year-to-date (July)

23、, volumes are up 12.7% in Stream Equivalent Album terms (Album + Single / 10 + Streams / 1,500), with physical down 10.9%, download down 16.7% and streaming up 37.1%. This is an acceleration from Junes 11.7% thanks to a strong July driven by improvements in all formats (physical, download and stream

24、ing). Comps have been quite easy over April-July, however, therefore August should be interesting with comps getting harder. In 2018, volumes were up 1.8%, with physical down 19.8%, download down 22.5% and streams up 40.9%.30 August 2019301/172%03/170%05/178%10%07/17Barclays | Internet & MediaFI

25、GURE 4 Volume monthly trends GermanyYear-on-year growth in Streaming Equivalent Album termsSEA = Album + Single / 10 + Streams / 1,5007%3%Sources: GfK, Barclays Research12.7% growth in volume terms sounds very positive. However, similar to France, trade e has actually grown at a lower rate than volu

26、me in recent periods. The Figure below shows that volumes grew 1% more than industry revenues in FY17, 2% more in FY18 and 4% in 1H19. If we assume that the year-to-date 13% two-year volume growth rate continues then volume should be up 11% in FY19E, having been up 2% in FY18A. If we then assume tha

27、t the 4% 1H19A volume-revenue gap stays the same in 2H19E thenGermany trade revenues should be up 7% in FY19E.FIGURE 5 Volume vs. tradee GermanyVolume Trade Revenu Difference3.7%2.9%10.8%-1.9%-3.0 2H11H17Sources: GfK, BVMI, Barclays ResearchJapan2019 year-to-date (July), the Japanese market is up 1.

28、3% including and up 4.2% excludings. The local industry body RIAJ reports monthly physical revenue and quarterly digitale on its website. It has made sense to exclude musicsince August 2018 whenlocal superstar Namie Amuro, the queen of J-Pop, retired and sold millions of her retirement DVDs. 1.3% an

29、d 4.2% are based on a forecast for 5% growth in digital revenues in 3Q19E (vs 7% YoY growth in 2Q19, 5% in 1Q19, and 16% in 4Q18).February and June data includes abnormally stronandsales as a result of one ofthe most popular Japanese boybands, Arashi, announcing they will go on a hiatus at the end o

30、f next year. Why is this important? Because Japan reports production numbers, not sales numbers and Arashis label (J Storm, not affiliated with any major label) decided to reissue30 August 2019401/17-2%-2%-2%03/1705/1707/17Barclays | Internet & Mediaall of Arashis albums in February and a best h

31、its album in June. Assuming zero growth in February and June, year-to-July the market was down -4.0% including and -3.0% excluding. We believe this is more representative of underlying trends.FIGURE 6 Monthly revenues JapanSources: RIAJ, Barclays ResearchIn 2018, the market was down 3.9%, with physi

32、cal down 9.3%, streaming up 32.6% and download down 5.0%.UK2019 year-to-date (July), volumes are up 8.7% in Stream Equivalent Album terms (Album + Single / 10 + Streams / 1,000), with physical volumes down 20.4%, download down 26.4% and streaming up 25.8%. Volumes were up 8.0% year-to-June. This acc

33、eleration comes from a strong July, +13%, which did not benefit from easier comps unlike France and Germany. In 2018, volumes were up 5.7% with physical down 20.8%, download down 26.1% and streaming up 33.5%.FIGURE 7 Volume monthly trends UKYear-on-year growth in Streaming Equivalent Album termsSEA

34、= Album + Single / 10 + Streams / 1,000Sources: BPI, Barclays ResearchWhile 8.7% growth in volume terms is solid, FY18 saw volumes grow 3% more than traderevenues (unlike 2017 where tradee grew at a higher rate than volume) and retailsales grow 6% more than trade revenues (unlike 2017 where tradee g

35、rew at a higherrate than retail sales). With volume up 8% and retail sales up 10% in 1H10, trade revenues were probably up 3-5% in 1H19.30 August 2019501/1602/1603/1604/1605/1606/1607/1608/1609/1610/16-0.5%01/1702/1703/1704/1705/1706/1707/17-14.9%-12.8%8.6%4.3%2.4%2.7%8.3%4.-0.9%5%2415.6%3.9%-12.2%9

36、.9%15.4%10.6%Barclays | Internet & MediaFIGURE 8 Volume vs. tradee UK-1.0% FY15Sources: BPI, ERA, Barclays ResearchUS2019 year-to-date (July), volumes are up 11.7% in Stream Equivalent Album terms (Album + Single / 10 + Streams / 1,500), with physical down 15.8%, download down 25.4% and audio st

37、reaming up 27.3%. This is slightly lower than the 11.9% achieved year-to-June. In 2018, volumes were up 17.7%, with physical volume down 15.7%, download down 23.6%, and audio streaming up 49.4%.FIGURE 9 Volume monthly trends USYear-on-year growth in Streaming Equivalent Album termsSEA = Album + Sing

38、le / 10 + Streams / 1,500Sources: Nielsen, Barclays Research11.7% growth in volume terms is quite strong, in our view. However, unlike 2016 and 2017, trade revenues were 4 points below volume in 1H18 and 6 points in FY18. The market grew 12.0% on a wholesale basis in FY18. Assuming a similar gap in

39、2019E, industry revenues should be up around 6%.30 August 2019608/1609/1610/16-11.1%3.7%26.4%32.6%11/1612/16-17.4%01/1702/1703/172.7%8.3%4.3%8.9%3.4%Barclays | Internet & MediaFIGURE 10 Volume vs. tradee US-1.5%1H16Sources: Nielsen, RIAA, Barclays ResearchUsing volume data to infer UMGs Q3 growt

40、hUMG organic streaming growthNew analysis: Mapping Spotify charts data to UMG artistsIn 2018, Spotifys share of the global music subscription market was 36% (Spotify reported revenues divided by IPFI worldwide streaming revenues). However, excluding TencentMusics share (since they are only present),

41、 Spotifys global market share is 40%,therefore we think Spotify is representative enough for their trends to be extrapolated to streaming overall.Consequently, we unveil a new analysis, in collaboration with our Investment Sciences team, where we map the major labels artists to Spotifys Top 200 char

42、ts data in order to see if this is a good leading indicator of their streaming revenue growth. We do this by scraping the artists from the major labels (and their sub-labels) websites. Where an artist appeared on more than one majors list, a manual check is performed. The Figure below shows that the

43、 major labels share of the Spotify Top 200 charts artists (dark blue) is broadly in line with their total reported streaming market share (light blue, calculated as reported streaming revenues converted in US$ divided by 2018 IPFI worldwide streaming revenues).30 August 201974.2%51.8%Barclays | Inte

44、rnet & MediaFIGURE 11 Major labels market share - FY18Universal MuSource: Company data, IFPI, Barclays Research. Note: We map 20 sub-labels (of which 8 areUniversal Music labels) and 818 artists (of which 334 are Universal artists). The mapping is not exhaustive but we believe it is a good repre

45、sentation of labels artists.That said, there are several reasons why this may not translate perfectly. First, the aforementioned caveat that we are only using the Top 200 songs, which may not be representative of UMG artists performance as a whole. Second, Spotifys royalty payments are subject to mi

46、nimum guaranteed amounts. We would expect these to only be triggered in highly discounted markets (e.g. where Spotify offer free trials or low ARPU subscriptions to gain market share), rather than in well established markets like the US; it is still possible that this could distort the relationship

47、between streaming revenues and the labels number of streams. Third, the timing of royalty payments may mean that a labels Q1 streaming revenues do not relate perfectly to their share of total streams in Q1, for example.Caveat aside, the next Figure shows the evolution of UM arket share among Spotify

48、s Top 200 streams in Spotifys 62 countries. The monthly market share has been quite volatile on a month-to-month basis but is broadly stable overall, and July saw a big decreaseyear-on-year (2018 had Drake). analysis in the next section.We take this market share into account in our regression30 Augu

49、st 20198Barclays | Internet & MediaFIGURE 12 UMG market share of Spotifys Top 200 streams34%32%30%28%26%Sources: Spotify, Barclays Research.Based on five main markets and UMGs share of Spotify Top 200 streamsUsing the overall streaming volume growth rates in France, Germany, Japan, the UK and th

50、e US (as we have done in previous editions) and our newly calculated market share for UMG artists among Spotifys Top 200 streams across Spotifys 62 countries, we examine the historical quarterly correlation between these six variables (five market growth, one market share) and UMGs quarterly organic

51、 revenue growth. We use a non-negative least squares regression to ensure that the coefficients are logical (e.g. so there is not an inverse relationship between streaming growth and UMG revenues). The regression points to 24.6% streaming growth in Q3 based on July trends, which is in line with our

52、forecast of 24.0%.FIGURE 13 UMG quarterly organic streaming growth versus main markets and Spotify50%45%40%35%30%25%20%Sources: GfK, RIAJ, Nielsen, BPI, BVMI, Spotify, company data, Barclays ResearchThis regression replaces our previous regression attempts which looked at the UMG streaming growth ve

53、rsus streaming market growth in the five main countries. The R2 was good (0.86) but some of the coefficients were negative, i.e. illogical.UMG recorded music organic growthFor UMG overall recorded organic, we examine the historical quarterly correlation betweenoverall volume growth in France, German

54、y, UK and US, quarterly tradee growth inJapan, UMG artists share of the Spotify Top 200 charts and UMGs organic growth in930 August 2019Jan-171Q17AMar-172Q17AMay-17Barclays | Internet & Mediarecorded music (six variables, five market growth figures and one market share figure). Again, we use a n

55、on-negative least squares regression to ensure the coefficients are logical. For Q3, the regression points to 20.4% recorded music organic growth for UMG based on July trends. This is significantly above our forecast of 11.3%. Before Vivendis bulls get overexcited, we see several reasons why 20% is unlikely to be the right growth rate. Firstly, we note that August and September have tougher comps for all countries, so we do not expect July trends to be entirely representative of th