愛(ài)立信：5G消費(fèi)者的潛力（中英雙語(yǔ)）

1、。起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)START your finance圍繞5G的四大行業(yè)神 話關(guān)于5G對(duì)消費(fèi)者價(jià)值的討論大多是由兩極分化 的觀點(diǎn)和神話所驅(qū)動(dòng)的。在本報(bào)告中，我們的 目標(biāo)是破壞神話并揭示其在消費(fèi)者現(xiàn)實(shí)中的潛 力。是否有機(jī)會(huì)根據(jù)5G的額外功能提供 高級(jí)消費(fèi)者產(chǎn)品，或者是企業(yè)和 B2B空間可能產(chǎn)生最正確機(jī)會(huì)？在全球范圍內(nèi)，電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商，行業(yè) 代表和政府利益相關(guān)者正在積極討論 5G的機(jī)會(huì)。然而，公共領(lǐng)域的大局部討論都是由 兩極分化的觀點(diǎn)和神話推動(dòng)的，例如5G將 全部關(guān)注企業(yè)而非消費(fèi)者并且沒(méi)有與 消費(fèi)者市場(chǎng)相關(guān)的真實(shí)用例。這種不確定 性讓一些人認(rèn)為4G技術(shù)已經(jīng)能夠滿足消費(fèi) 者的需求。2這引領(lǐng)了分析師和評(píng)論家 警告

2、消費(fèi)者不太可能為訪問(wèn)他們不需 要的服務(wù)而支付額外費(fèi)用。這些假設(shè) 似乎如此 對(duì)運(yùn)營(yíng)商也有所了解。迄今為止，智能手機(jī)一直是推動(dòng)移 動(dòng)寬帶技術(shù)應(yīng)用的關(guān)鍵，而普遍的假 設(shè)是它在5G時(shí)代將是相同的。3認(rèn)為5G 的潛力僅限于消費(fèi)者，行業(yè)是不確定移動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)使用的未來(lái)以及5G將 引領(lǐng)我們的地方。但并不是每個(gè)人都 被這些神話所吞噬；有些人認(rèn)為消費(fèi)者 確實(shí)是5G時(shí)代的關(guān)鍵支柱。4 回顧歷史，前幾代移動(dòng)技術(shù)的這種不確 定性和懷疑態(tài)度并不是什么新鮮事。甚 至早在2010年，人們就預(yù)測(cè)4G蜂窩網(wǎng)絡(luò) 可能不會(huì)辜負(fù)炒作。5快進(jìn)到 2019年，任何人都可以想象沒(méi)有 4G LTE移動(dòng)寬帶網(wǎng)絡(luò)？作為一項(xiàng)新興技術(shù)，圍繞5G的消費(fèi)者

3、潛力存在很多問(wèn)題?，F(xiàn)在是時(shí)候?yàn)檗q論 帶來(lái)一些深度和現(xiàn)實(shí)。本報(bào)告旨在消除 圍繞5G的四個(gè)關(guān)鍵神話：5G沒(méi)有近期的消費(fèi)者利益。5G沒(méi)有真正的用例或價(jià)格 溢價(jià)。智能手機(jī)是5G的唯一解決方案。當(dāng)前使用模式準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的5G需求。常見(jiàn)的神話用戶對(duì)他們目前的4G服務(wù)非常滿 意，對(duì)他們來(lái)說(shuō)，沒(méi)有理由需要支付 額外的費(fèi)用才能轉(zhuǎn)換到5G。電信分析師“5G的貨幣化更難。它不像2G, 3G或4G。它不會(huì) 解決消費(fèi)者的問(wèn)題。它需要更 加直接和引導(dǎo)企業(yè)用例和企業(yè) 解決方案?！斑\(yùn)營(yíng)商CT0我們不僅根據(jù)廣泛的消費(fèi)者研究而且 還根據(jù)TCT行業(yè)專家的意見(jiàn)來(lái)破壞這些 神話。誤區(qū)1 - 5G沒(méi)有短期的消費(fèi)者利益。神話2 - 5G沒(méi)

4、有真正的用例或價(jià)格溢價(jià)。神話3 -智能手機(jī)是5G的唯一解決方案。神話4 -當(dāng)前使用模式準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)需求。 s: ZdNET. C0M/TUNELY/5G-PR0CESS USE-CaseSea-Gooto to Beal-Autoto/Office :/paulbudde /blog/mobile-communications/no-quick-wins-with-5g-for-telstra/ s:/venturebeat.eom/2019/03/06/idc-5g-phones-will-grow-from-0-5-market-share-2019-to-26-in-2023/ are-

5、 the-key-pillar-of-the-5g-era-users-will-consume-100gb-a-months s:/news/2010-ll-4g-cellular-networks-hype.html我已經(jīng)需要為我的智能手機(jī)隨身 攜帶電池組了，現(xiàn)在你想讓我在我 的手機(jī)上添加一塊厚實(shí)的卡扣，使 其具備5G功能，然后確保我有 與此卡扣兼容的手機(jī)。沒(méi)有發(fā) 生！男，32歲，紐約，美國(guó)專家見(jiàn)解我們不知道智能手機(jī)能夠做什么 已啟動(dòng)，推出。它當(dāng)時(shí)層至無(wú)法錄 制視頻，只是靜止圖像。我認(rèn)為智 能眼鏡也是如此-我們很難想象我 們最終會(huì)走向何方。未來(lái)的一個(gè)愿 景是，我們將擁有自己的元節(jié)，在 現(xiàn)實(shí)

6、世界中的數(shù)字疊加，并將通過(guò) 以下方式享受3D體驗(yàn) 我們的眼鏡。”JohanHagegSrd, ARRS的企業(yè)家， IMRSV消費(fèi)者仍然需要他們的智能手 機(jī)。你不想帶走手里拿東西的經(jīng) 駒。 索尼移動(dòng)高級(jí)經(jīng)理Mikael Dahlkv 1st200GB五分之一的人可以在5G設(shè)備上使 用200GB /月，比目前的蜂窩數(shù)據(jù) 使用量增加1。倍。50%平均而言，所有智能手機(jī)用戶中有 一半的人希望他們的移動(dòng)蜂窩數(shù)據(jù) 使用量增加超過(guò)5G。5G消費(fèi)者的潛在機(jī)會(huì)消費(fèi)者看到了5G的潛力。然而， 生態(tài)系統(tǒng)如何開(kāi)展和利用這些消 費(fèi)者現(xiàn)實(shí)仍然是個(gè)謎。誰(shuí)將籌劃 新的5G體驗(yàn)，建立伙伴關(guān)系，創(chuàng) 建新設(shè)備和捕獲結(jié)果是額外的收入

7、？新的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)播 放器，設(shè)備制造商或?qū)嶓w是否會(huì)出 現(xiàn)，或服務(wù)提供商是否會(huì)推動(dòng)這一 開(kāi)展？隨著油田的開(kāi)放，還有待觀 察誰(shuí)將獲得5G消費(fèi)者的機(jī)會(huì)。ericsson / consumerlab5G consumer potentialBusting the myths around the value of 5G forconsumersAn Ericsson Consumer & IndustryLab Insight Report May 2019Common myths“Users are very happy with their current 4G service and for them

8、 there would not be a reason to pay extra money to switch over to 5G.Telecom analystThe monetization of 5G is harder.It is not like 2G, 3G or 4G. It is not going to address consumers. It needs to be more directed and steered towards enterprise use cases and enterprise solutions/Operator CTOEricsson

9、| 5G consumer potentialKey consumerrealitiesThrough the insights provided by industry experts and consumers, we uncoverthe potential 5G holdsfor consumers.Figure 2: Four common myths around 5G for consumersMyth 1：There are no near-term consumer benefits of 5G.Myth 2:There are no real use cases for,

10、or price premium on, 5G.RealityConsumers expect 5G to offer a step change in network performance, relief from urban network congestion and more home broadband choices as near-term benefits.Half of smartphone users in South Korea and Australia, and two in five in the US, claim mobile broadband speeds

11、 are not fast enough.Urban network congestion is visible to consumers in megacities; 6 in 10 in mega/metro cities globally face most issues in crowded areas andwould like 5G to be deployed first in suchareas.Consumers expect more home broadband choices; half of those interested in 5G home wireless b

12、roadband are either dissatisfied with their existing provider or lack broadband choices.RealityConsumers see value in 5G services and expect most use cases to go mainstream within 2 to 3 years of 5Gs launch-67 percent say they are willing to payforthem.一Consumers in the US would prefer to cut the co

13、rd from cable TV and instead use streaming services via 5G; Chinese consumers expect to live in a 5G-connected smart home; and South Korean consumers would love to go shopping in mobile VR.Smartphone users say they are willingtopaya20 percent premium for 5G, and early adopters as much as 32 percent.

14、 However, higher internet speed alone wont be enough: 4 in 10 high-spenders expect new apps and services from their5G plan.Ericsson | 5G consumer potentialMyth 3:Smartphones are the only solution for5G.Myth 3:Smartphones are the only solution for5G.Myth 4:Current usage patterns accurately predict fu

15、ture demand. 5G“Ming 所 5GRealitySmartphones alone are unlikely to drive 5G adoption.Consumers themselves predict massive changes in future usage on 5G, with video consumption set to peak.Of those who have a recent iPhone model, 43 percent doubt whether the form factors and features of todays smartph

16、ones can best take advantage of5G.Current smartphones should evolve; 4 in 10 expect foldable screens, holographic projection and 360-degree cameras as features on upcoming 5Gdevices.Globally half of all consumers agree that smartphones will still exist but that we will all be wearing augmented reali

17、ty (AR) smart glasses in the next five years.Three hours more video content will be consumed on mobile devices weekly when away from home, of which one hour will be on AR/VR glasses in a 5G future. Half of all users expect their mobile cellular data usage to increase significantly on 5G, and 1 in 5

18、could see an increase of lOtimes, with usage of 200GB per month.For6 in 10,5G-connected home robotswill be a status symbol, while 4 in 10 expect access to 5G in the carto be asimportantasfuel efficiencyand engine powerin the next 5years.主要的消費(fèi)現(xiàn)實(shí)通過(guò)行業(yè)專家和消費(fèi)者提供的見(jiàn)解，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了消費(fèi)者 可能的5G持有量。圖2:消費(fèi)者對(duì)5G左右的四個(gè)常見(jiàn)神話神話1：

19、5G沒(méi)有近期的消費(fèi)者利益。神話2:5G沒(méi)有真正的用例或價(jià)格溢 價(jià)。現(xiàn)實(shí)消費(fèi)者希望5G能夠改變網(wǎng)絡(luò)性能，緩解城市網(wǎng)絡(luò)擁 塞，提供更多家庭寬帶選擇作為近期優(yōu)勢(shì)。-韓國(guó)和澳大利亞的智能手機(jī)用戶中有一半，美國(guó)有五分 之二，聲稱移動(dòng)寬帶速度不夠快。-大城市的消費(fèi)者可以看到城市網(wǎng)絡(luò)擁堵;全球大型 /地鐵城市中有6%的人在擁擠的地區(qū)面臨大多數(shù) 問(wèn)題，并希望首先在這些地區(qū)部署5G。-消費(fèi)者期望更多的家庭寬帶選擇;對(duì)5G家庭無(wú)線寬帶感興 趣的人中有一半要么對(duì)他們現(xiàn)有的提供商不滿意，要 么缺乏寬帶選擇?，F(xiàn)實(shí)消費(fèi)者看到5G服務(wù)的價(jià)值，并期望大多數(shù)用例在 5G推出后的2至IJ3年內(nèi)成為主流- 67%的人表示他 們?cè)敢?/p>

20、支付這些費(fèi)用。-美國(guó)的消費(fèi)者更愿意從有線電視上切斷電源線，而 是通過(guò)5G使用流媒體服務(wù);中國(guó)消費(fèi)者希望住在一 個(gè)5G連接的智能家居中;韓國(guó)消費(fèi)者喜歡在移動(dòng)VR 中購(gòu)物。-智能手機(jī)用戶說(shuō)他們?cè)敢飧跺X5G優(yōu)惠20%,早期采用者優(yōu)惠32%。然而，僅憑較高的 互聯(lián)網(wǎng)速度是不夠的：十分之四的高消費(fèi)者期望從他 們的5G計(jì)劃中獲得新的應(yīng)用和服務(wù)。cOd15%41%59%Expert insights“Does it make good business sense to put fiber into every cottage in Lapland? No, but fixed access based o

21、n mobile could make good business sense. But cities will be based on a mixture of technologies and hybrid solutions/Vesa-Pekka Nikula, Executive Vice President of Production, ElisaEricsson | 5G consumer potentialThe consumer wallet for 5G apps and servicesAdvantages of 5G include improved speed, low

22、er latency, increased capacityand greaterflexibility.The question is, will consumers eventually pay for these?The industry seems to be trying to identify the key real-world use cases that will attract consumers. We specifically looked into the use cases involving consumers being asked if they would

23、be willing to pay extra for these as part of their 5G mobile subscription plan. Our research assessed consumers interest and asked what they would be willing to pay, as well as when they think the use cases will go mainstream. Consumers willingness to pay should be interpreted as a stronger measure

24、of their interest in 5G-enabled services. However, it should not be interpreted as a prediction of how much they will pay for a certain service. The end result is a consumer roadmap to 31 different applications and services/use cases, spread across 6 usecase categories: entertainment, enhanced mobil

25、e broadband (eMBB), gaming and AR/VR applications, smart home and fixed wireless access, automotive, and shoppingand immersive communications.Aconsumerusecaseroadmapto5G Smartphone users predict that most applications and services will go mainstream within 2 to 3 years of 5Gs launch and an average 6

26、7 percent of all smartphone users were willing to pay for relevant apps and services that they were interested in. This differs across markets; in the US, for example, consumers expect this to happen within one year of launch, while in markets like Germany and Finland it is around two and a half yea

27、rs or more.The 5G mobile subscription use case roadmap suggests three phases of 5G adoption. Home wireless broadband and premium smartphone experiences that allow content to be downloaded in seconds are expected to go mainstream within one year of 5G launch, and draw high interest and willingness to

28、 pay from consumers. The idea of moving away from traditional cable TV and opting for an ultra-high-definition TV service (5G TV) bundled with 5G home wireless broadband is most sought after by 74 percent of users in oursurvey globally. A similar proportion of smartphone users globally are intereste

29、d in a 5G hot zone service that offers ultra-high speeds and reliability in demanding locations like airports, shopping streets and office spaces.Figure 6: A consumer use case roadmap to 5G80%80%50%AutomotiveEntertainmentGaming and AR/VR eMBBSmart home (FWA)Shopping and immersive communicationsTimel

30、ine to go mainstreamWillingness to payLowestHighest(47%)(79%)01 AR windshield02 AR window03 Autonomous cars04 See-through cars with 5G05 5G in-car entertainment06 VRcinema07 Best seat event experience08 Diorama09 VR passenger entertainment10 5G augmented events11 Arbitrary viewpoint video12 4K 360-d

31、egree action cam13 AR maps14 AR/VR learning15 VR cloudgaming16 Multiplayer AR gaming17 Low latency cloud gaming18 Gigabytes in seconds19 5G hot zones20 5G TV215G home wireless broadband22 Health wearable23 Home sensor service24 5G early alarm system25 Connected robot26 Sensor-enhanced entertainment2

32、7 Real-time translations28Virtual tactile shopping29 Dronedelivery30 3D hologram calling31 5G facial recognition paymentBase: Smartphone users aged 15-69 in Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Belgium, China, Canada, Chile, France, Finland, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Saudi Arabia, South Ko

33、rea, Singapore, Thailand, Uruguay, the UAE, the UKand the US Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab, 5G consumer potential (May 2019)Expert insightsloyalty and attraction is the game for us. At an early stage, 5G technology would be especially appealing to early adopters, who have the ability to positively in

34、fluence the rest of the industry/Salim Kouidri, Vice President, Engineering and Operations (New York), T-Mobile USThe challenge for every mobile operator is the consistency of experience. For a guaranteed quality of experience we will be able to charge a premium. For services that require low latenc

35、y we will be able to charge a premium. For 5G as a pure bearer alone? Harder/Derek McManus, COO, Telefonica UKTf and when we can provide a lower latency service for our customers, there is definitely a premium they are willing to pay for it. Think of VR; if the latency goes beyond 10 milliseconds, p

36、eople start feeling nauseous. In certain services, lower latency is a must. There is definitely a value in providing lower latency and customers will be willing to pay some of that value back to us, I am positive about it.”Vesa-Pekka Nikula, Executive Vice President, Elisa FinlandService-based prici

37、ng where the consumers buy a package that includes all the mobile data necessary for a specific use case is likely to come for consumers. It is too early to say how this will develop into a 5G world.wBerit Svendsen, former head, Telenor Scandinavia, and CEO, Telenor Norway“I already need to carry ba

38、ttery packs with me for my smartphone, now you want me to add a chunky piece of snap-on to my phone to make it 5G capable and then ensure I have a phone that is compatible with this snap-on. Not happening!Male, 32, New York, USExpert insightsWe had no clue what the smartphone would be able to do bac

39、k when it was launched. It couldn/t even record video back then, just still images. I think it is the same thing with smart glasses - we have a hard time visualizing where we will end up. One vision of the future is that we will have our own metaverse, a digital overlay on the real world, and will e

40、njoy the 3D experiences through our glasses/Johan Hagegard, Entrepreneur in AR/MR, IMRSVConsumers will still want their smartphones. You dont want to take away the experience of having something in your hand.”Mikael Dahlkvist, Senior Manager, Sony Mobile200GBOne in five could use 200GB/month on 5G d

41、evices, a lOx increase from current cellular data usage.50%On average, half of all smartphone users expect their mobile cellular data usage to increase over 5G.The 5G consumer potential opportunityConsumers see the potential in 5G. However, how the ecosystem will develop and capitalize on these cons

42、umer realities remains a mystery. Who will curate new 5G experiences, forge partnerships, create new devices and capture additional revenue as a result? Will new internet players, device makers or entities emerge, or will service providers drive this development? With the field opening up, it remain

43、s to be seen who will harvest the 5G consumer opportunity.誤區(qū)3:智能手機(jī)是5G的唯一解決方案。26 N&work ova,/ 5G 風(fēng)0*勺 丫小essfu，y X.一一一仍四M航. 現(xiàn)實(shí)僅智能手機(jī)不太可能推動(dòng)5G 的采用。神話4:當(dāng)前使用模式準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)需 求。消費(fèi)者自己預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)5G的使用會(huì)發(fā)生巨大變化，視頻消 費(fèi)揩到達(dá)峰值。一在那些擁有近期iPhone型號(hào)的用戶中，有43%的人 懷疑當(dāng)今智能手機(jī)的外形和功能是否能最好地利用5GO-當(dāng)前的智能手機(jī)應(yīng)該開(kāi)展;4人中有4人希望可折疊屏 幕，全息投影和36()度攝像頭成為即將推出的5G設(shè)備

44、 的特色。全球一半的消費(fèi)者都認(rèn)為智能手機(jī)仍然存在，但我們 將在未來(lái)五年內(nèi)佩戴增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)(AR)智能眼鏡。-每周離家時(shí)移動(dòng)設(shè)備將消耗3小時(shí)以上的視頻內(nèi)容， 其中5小時(shí)未來(lái)的AR / VR眼鏡將耗費(fèi)1小時(shí)。-所有用戶中有一半希望他們的移動(dòng)蜂窩數(shù)據(jù)使用量 在5G上顯著增加，五分之一的用戶可以看到增加 10倍，每月使用200GB。-對(duì)于1。個(gè)中的6個(gè)，5G連接的家用機(jī)器人將成為狀 態(tài)符號(hào)，而1。個(gè)中的4個(gè)預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)5年內(nèi)，車內(nèi)5G 的燃料效率和發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)功率同樣重要。專家見(jiàn)解將光纖放入拉普蘭的每個(gè)小屋 都具有良好的商業(yè)意義嗎？ 不，但基于移動(dòng)設(shè)備的固定訪 問(wèn)可以做到良好的商業(yè)意識(shí)。但城市將基 于混合技術(shù)和混合解決方案。Elisa生產(chǎn)執(zhí)行副總裁Vesa-Pekka Nikula適用于5G應(yīng)用和服務(wù) 的消費(fèi)者錢包5G的優(yōu)點(diǎn)包括提息速度，降低延遲，增加容 量和更大的靈活性。問(wèn)題是，消費(fèi)者最終會(huì)為這些付費(fèi)嗎？該行業(yè)似乎正試圖找出吸引消費(fèi)者的關(guān) 鍵現(xiàn)實(shí)用例。我們特別調(diào)查了涉及消費(fèi) 者的用例，詢問(wèn)他們是否愿意為這些用 戶支付額外費(fèi)用作為其5G移動(dòng)訂閱計(jì)劃 的一局部。我們的研究評(píng)估了消費(fèi)者的 興趣，并詢問(wèn)他們?cè)敢庵Ц妒裁?，以?何時(shí)支付他們認(rèn)為用例將成為主流。消費(fèi)者的支 付意愿應(yīng)該被解釋為更有利于