翰聯(lián)李俊偉-項目組合管理培訓ppt課件

1、 Project Portfolio ManagementAn Introduction李俊偉 工程管理者聯(lián)盟, MYPM.NET更多培訓資料，盡在cnshu！ContentEmergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques2The Emergence of Project Portfolio Management1952, Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT),

2、Harry Markowitz, Journal of Finance, Portfolio Selection1990, Harry Markowitz shared Nobel Prize, dominant approach used to manage risk and return within financial markets1981, F.Warren McFarian, Portfolio Approach to Information Systems, HBR, to employ a risk-based approach to the selection and man

3、agement of IT projects.1990s, a broader use of ideas of portfolio management 1998, John Thorp, The Information Paradox. Portfolio management was used to manage risk and maximize return along a number of dimensions.Present, portfolio management as central elements of good investment management3Portfo

4、lio Management, the overall pictureFocus(Strategic Planning )Source: PM Solutions, Portfolio Management, Dianne BridgesSelect(Portfolio Management)Manage(Project Management)4ContentEmergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM, Process and

5、 Techniques更多培訓資料，盡在cnshu！5The Old Philosophy about Portfolio Dont put all your eggs in one basket. Risk aversion seems to be an instinctive trait in human beings.6Return and Risk in Financial Marketexpected returnstandard deviation (%)capital appreciationgrowth of income0 6 12 18 24 30 362018161412

6、1086420incomeinflationT-billsintermediate-termgovernmentbondslong-termgovernment bondslong-termcorporate bondslarge company stockssmallcompanystocksstabilityof principal7The Role of Combining SecuritiesThe expected return of a portfolio is a weighted average of the component expected returns.更多培訓資料，

7、盡在cnshu！8The Role of Combining Securities10two-securityportfolio risk= riskA + riskB +interactiveriskThe total risk of a portfolio comes from thevariance of the components and from the relationships among the components.9The Role of Combining Securitiesexpected returnrisk betterperformance A portfol

8、io dominates all others if no other equally risky portfolio has a higher expected return, or if no portfolio with the same expected return has less risk. The point of diversification is to achieve a given level of expected return while bearing the least possible risk.10The Efficient Frontier : Optim

9、um Diversification of Risky Assetsexpected returnrisk (standard deviation of returns)impossibleportfoliosdominatedportfoliosefficient frontierThe optimal combinations result in lowest level of risk for a given returnThe optimal trade-off is described as the efficient frontier11The Efficient Frontier

10、 vs Naive Diversification As portfolio size increases,total portfolio risk, on average, declines. After a certain point, however, the marginal reduction in risk from the addition of another security is modest.total riskNon-diversifiablerisknumber of securities Naive diversification is the random sel

11、ectionof portfolio components without conducting any serious security analysis.12Risk Reduction with DiversificationNumber of SecuritiesSt. DeviationMarket RiskUnique Risk13Market or systematic risk: risk related to the macro economic factor or market indexUnsystematic or firm specific risk: risk no

12、t related to the macro factor or market indexTotal risk = Systematic + UnsystematicComponents of Risk14Two-Security Portfolios with Different Correlations = 113%8E(r)St. Dev12%20% = .3 = -1 = -115Relationship depends on correlation coefficient-1.0 +1.0The smaller the correlation, the greater the ris

13、k reduction potentialIf= +1.0, no risk reduction is possiblePortfolio Risk/Return, Correlation Effects16Structuring a Portfolio : Asset Allocationattitudetoward riskneed forreturnrealizedreturnand riskwith thepassageof timestocksbondsrealestatecashforeignequitiesPortfolioASSETCLASSESindividual choic

14、e asset class mix investment results更多培訓資料，盡在cnshu！17ContentEmergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques18What is project portfolio managementPortfolio Management is the project selection process and involves ident

15、ifying opportunities: assessing the organizational fit; analyzing the costs, benefits, and risks; and developing and selecting a portfolio. The art of project portfolio management is: doing the right thing, selecting the right mix of projects and adjusting as time evolves and circumstances unfold.19

16、Portfolio Management is: Defining goals and objectives clearly articulate what the portfolio is expected to achieveUnderstanding, accelerating, and making tradeoffs determine how much to invest in one thing as opposed to something elseIdentifying, eliminating,minimizing, and diversifying risk select

17、 a mix of investments that will avoid undue risk, will not exceed acceptable risk tolerance levels, and will spread risks across projects and initiatives to minimize adverse impactsMonitoring portfolio performance understand the progress that the portfolio is making toward the achievement of the goa

18、ls and objectivesAchieving a desired objective have the confidence that the desired outcome will likely be achieved given the aggregate of investments that are made20Portfolio Management is NotDoing a series of project specific calculations and analyses, such as return on investment, benefit-cost an

19、alysis, net present value, payback period, rate of return, and then adjusting them all to account for risk. these are project specificCollecting after-the-market information on projects to produce a report that the organization hopes will satisfy some organizational reporting requirement.21The benef

20、its of Portfolio ManagementHaving a structure in place to select the right projects and immediately remove the wrong projectsPlacing resources where it matters, reducing wasteful spendingLinking portfolio decisions to strategic direction and business goalsEstablishing logic, reasoning, and a sense o

21、f fairness behind portfolio decisionsEstablishing ownership amongst the staff by involvement at the right levels22ContentEmergence of Project Portfolio Management (PPM)Portfolio Management in Financial MarketOverview of PPM PPM, Process and Techniques23Project Portfolio Management, Process & Techniq

22、ue Four stepsProject Evaluation MatrixEvaluation Criteria Examples24Step 1: Define the PortfolioFirst, establish the overall portfolio mission. This mission statement will be used to initially determine what projects are in or out of the portfolio.The mission statement can be simple, like:The Intran

23、et Portfolio covers all projects to be deployed on the corporate intranet.25Step 2: Gather the ProjectsNow, gather all the projects together that you think might be in the portfolio. This may not be the list you already have. Some projects, including duplicate efforts, may be underway in other parts

24、 of the organization.26Step 3: Begin WeedingOnce the project list is established, begin weeding the list down. Remove projects that:Are duplicate efforts. Here is an opportunity to save money by pooling two or more efforts into a single project.Do not meet the mission area. Some projects may be unde

25、r your wing but do not fit in the mission area. Remove them from your portfolio and place them elsewhere.27Step 4: Begin EvaluatingOnce the portfolio list is set, begin evaluating each project to determine what the overall portfolio will look like.Using the four-quadrant matrix here, evaluate the pr

26、ojects against two major criteria:What are the potential risks in implementing this project?What are the potential benefits in implementing this project?28QuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject BenefitsLowHighHighProject Evaluation Matrix29Using the MatrixThe matrix is used as a

27、 scoring tool to map projects against the evaluated level of risk and the evaluated potential beneficial impact of a project.Projects are evaluated on both risk and benefit from low to high using a series of questions and scores.Projects are then evaluated in the worksheet and decisions made for inc

28、lusion and balancing the portfolio.30QuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProject RiskProject BenefitsLowHighHighMatrix Decision RegionsProjects to remove from the portfolioProjects to keep in the portfolio更多培訓資料，盡在cnshu！31Evaluation CriteriaThe Evaluation Matrix uses two basic criteria: Risk and

29、 Benefit.Five sample risk areas:Risk of Completion On Time (Schedule Risk)Risk of Managing Multiple Organizations (Organizational Risk)Risk of Technologies Used for the Application (Technological Risk)Risk of Not Proceeding with the Project (Risk of Not Doing It)Projects Implementation and Maintenan

30、ce CostsFive sample benefit areas:Number of potential groups or users needing applicationProjects Impact on Cross-Functional ActivitiesProjects Impact on Improving Internal CultureProjects Impact on Improving External Customer ServiceEstimated Benefit/Cost Ratio (Potential Savings or Profits)32Risk Assessment Scorecard- illustrationRisk CategoryWeighted Scale ExampleLow Risk Project ScoreHigh Risk Project