煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型：緩解社會(huì)和勞動(dòng)力影 響

1、The Coal Transition: Mitigating Social and Labor ImpactsWendy Cunningham and Achim Schmillenemail: HYPERLINK mailto:wcunningham wcunningham and HYPERLINK mailto:aschmillen aschmillenAbstractRealizing the objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change will necessitate a timely transition of the

2、global energy system out of coal, but evidence from Europe, China, and the United States shows that the coal transition can lead to massive job losses. This paper develops a comprehensive policy approach to assist affected workers and communities. Based on a conceptual framework that distinguishes b

3、etween pre-layoff planning, pre-layoff assistance and post-layoff assistance, it discusses the main instruments for mitigating social and labor impacts, in particular income support and active labor market policies. In addition, it considers the institutional context, the dynamics of change, and imp

4、lementation issues. The paper argues that while challenges resulting from the coal transition should not be minimized, the sound management of job displacements can contribute to mitigating the social consequences, strengthen morale and productivity, and improve the efficiency of structural change.J

5、EL Codes: J63, J65, Q38Keywords: Coal transition; job displacements; income support; active labor market policiesTable of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Introduction 3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Conceptual framework 6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Instruments for mitigating social and labor impacts 8 HYPERLIN

6、K l _bookmark6 Pre-layoff planning 8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Pre-layoff assistance 12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Post-layoff assistance 14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Temporary income support 14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Active labor market policies 18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Auxiliary services 24 HYPERLINK l

7、 _bookmark18 Complementary initiatives 24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Implementation considerations 25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Institutional context 25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Local context and dynamics of change 28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Other implementation considerations 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 C

8、onclusions 35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 References 37AcknowledgementsThis paper was written by Wendy Cunningham and Achim Schmillen with guidance from Jehan Arulpragasam and Philip OKeefe. It was produced as part of a cross-sectoral task on managing the multi-dimensions of coal mine closure that invol

9、ved the World Banks Climate Change Cross- Cutting Solutions Area and Energy and Extractives Global Practice in addition to the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice and resulted in the publication of the report “Managing Coal Mine Closure Achieving a Just Transition for All.” The authors thank

10、Michael McCormick for the leadership of this task and the entire cross-sectoral team for helpful comments, inputs and discussions. Thanks are also due to Indhira Santos and Elizabeth Ruppert Bulmer as editor and peer reviewer for the World Banks Social Protection and Jobs Discussion Paper series, re

11、spectively, to Bong Sun Seo for excellent research assistance, and to David Fretwell for drafting a background paper on mitigating the social impact of economic change, during enterprise restructuring and privatization. Authors names are listed in alphabetical order.IntroductionArguably, the “stabil

12、isation of the climate system in line with the Paris Agreement on climate change is impossible without the timely phase out of unabated coal from the global energy system” (Caldecott et al. 2017a, p.4). However, the transition out of coal can lead to massive job displacements. Large-scale restructur

13、ing in the coal sectors of Eastern and Western Europe, China, and the United States have resulted in hundreds of thousands of coal workers losing their jobs. HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 1 These figures do not even include the spillover job losses in industries in the coal value chain or those job losses

14、associated with the goods and services that support the coal workers livelihoods, such as local food markets or clothing vendors. Yet the social impacts of the transition out of coal can be even broader, particularly in those situations where coal companies own or finance social infrastructure, such

15、 as health clinics or primary schools. In the most extreme case, a coal mine is at the center of a mono-industry town where the entire economy revolves around it and is therefore essentially doomed once the coal mine closes.While many countries are faced with new challenges resulting from the coal t

16、ransition and there is an urgent need to achieve a “just transition for all” to realize the objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change, large-scale job losses are not themselves a new phenomenon. HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 2 There have been many episodes where economic restructuring, changing t

17、rade patterns, major cyclical downturns, and even natural disasters have eliminated a substantial number of jobs and in the process created serious dislocations for workers and their families, firms, and communities. These large-scale job losses have significant social and psychological as well as e

18、conomic consequences (cf. von Wachter et al., 2009). Mass layoffs effects on variables such as mental health and even mortality also can be significant. Moreover, Farber (1997) and von Wachter et1 For example, during the 1980s employment in coal mines in the United Kingdom fell from 237,000 to 49,00

19、0 while in Poland during the 1990s it fell from 380,000 to 150,000 and in the United States between 1980 and 2015 from 220,000 to 65,000 (cf. Caldecott et al. 2017a). While UNFCC (2016) notes that Germany had 753,000 coal sector jobs in the late 1950s but only 33,500 in 2014, according to Caldecott

20、et al. (2017b, p.27) it is “thought that around a quarter of the 2.8 million total workers in Chinas state-owned coal mining companies were laid-off” between the late 1990s and early 2000s.2 As detailed in World Bank (2017, p. 57), “the Just Transition for All concept builds on the International Tra

21、de Union Confederations (ITUC) concept of a Just Transition. () The Just Transitionfor All complements this concept by also envisioning the reform of labor and socialpolicy andinstitutions to ease the disruption facedby a wide range of people directly and indirectly affected by the transition toward

22、 cleanenergy, as well as to support them in their post-transition jobs and lives.”al. (2009) show that some types of workersfor instance, women, older workers and the less- educatedmay suffer disproportionate costs from job displacements (cf. Box 1 for a discussion of gender aspects of coal mine clo

23、sure). In addition to that, large-scale job displacements resulting from coal mine closure tend to be geographically concentrated, so they can have significant impacts on entire communities and local and regional economies can be left with few economic opportunities (cf. vom Berge and Schmillen, 201

24、5); laid-off workers often lack the skills or geographic proximity to easily transfer to sectors that are growing; and providing adequate support can be expensive. Because of the personal and social costs involved in a large-scale job loss, governments have implemented a range of measures to financi

25、ally compensate displaced workers, assist them in finding re-employment, or both. Careful diagnosis and programming based on international experience can create opportunities in even the direst situation. They can mitigate the costs of large-scale labor displacement and support workers in finding pr

26、oductive re-employment that will have long-run benefits, both for the individuals involved and for the broader economy.Box 1 Gender Aspects of Coal Mine ClosuresMining sector restructuring affects the welfare of women in multiple ways through loss of coal industry employment, increased burden of dom

27、estic responsibilities when men lose their employment, intra-household tensions, and the impact of migration induced by mine closure. For example, Poland Miners Social Package in response to the 1998-2001 mine closures initially only covered underground workers, who were only men. A stakeholder work

28、shop in 2001 revealed that womens employment had been directly affected by the mine closure, but they did not benefit from the package since they were surface, rather than underground, workers. In response, a new social package was introduced that included 3.6 months severance payments for surface w

29、orkers. The Romanianmine restructure during 2002-2005 foundthat nearly 50 percent of laid-off workers were female. Further, women likely fill many of the spillover jobs that serve coal mine producers and their families. Women tendto be over-represented inwholesale andretail, owning small shop, small

30、 restaurant, andperforming various other services. Thus, their job loss may be overlookedif the focus is only on coal producers.Women also respond differently to job loss and redeployment. Sometimes, women tendto be comfortable with a larger set of job options while men commonly identify with a more

31、 limited set of job options. For example, in response to economic shocks in Argentina, women more easily moved into alternative activities to supplement household incomes while men were frequently willing only to take jobs in their own narrow occupation. Also, women tend to be responsive to a wider

32、range of active labor market policies: according to impact evaluations, their post-training employment probabilities and wage gains exceed those of men, they have a higher incidence of usage of employment services, and they are a better credit risk than men when borrowing to start their own small bu

33、sinesses.Sources: Authors based on Geldstein (1999), Attanasio et al. (2015) and Strongman (2017)History has shown that effective management of the social and labor aspects of coal mine closures can make the difference between a smooth and a conflict-filled, and perhaps failed, transition (cf. Calde

34、cott et al. 2017a). While proven instruments exist that can mitigate the social and labor consequences of coal mine closure, even many of the most advanced countries have failed in managing the coal transition. The key question is how to ameliorate the short-term negative impact of adjustment on ind

35、ividual workers, while at the same time recognizing that jobs are created by private sector investment and a growing economy, not by social protection and labor services. Lessons from past coal transitions, as well as lessons from managing the social and labor aspects of economic and natural shocks

36、affecting various sectors, can answer this question and provide clear guidance to prepare for a new wave of transition away from coal. As emphasized by UNFCC (2016, p. 20), “in many ways the transition to a green economy will pose challenges similar to those of earlier transitions caused by technolo

37、gical revolutions, globalization and rapid changes in world markets.”This paper summarizes experiences and best practices for local and national governments to support structural change and assist workers and communities affected by large-scale job displacements, including coal transitions. To this

38、end, it considers a wide range of past adjustment episodes caused by either the coal transition or a multitude of other shocks affecting various sectors that resulted in significant worker dislocation to develop a comprehensive policy approach to address the job displacements that are bound to arise

39、 from future industry-wide shocks or realignments, including future coal transitions.By incorporating lessons learned from a multitude of shocks affecting various sectors, this paper contributes to the emerging literature on managing social and labor impacts of the coal transition, with an emphasis

40、on developing country contexts. This literature has already summarized some important lessons learned from past coal transitions (or sometimes energy transitions). For example, OECD (2016) reviews the experiences of the closure of thermal power plants in Canada, Italy, Australia and elsewhere as wel

41、l of a nuclear power plant in California while Caldecott et al. (2017a) summarize lessons from detailed case studies of the coal transition in the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the Appalachian region of the United States. Similarly, Sheldon et al. (2018) foc

42、us on the coal sector in Australia,the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the United Stated and the Ruhr region in Germany (also covered by Galgoczi 2014) as well as steelworks in Australia and Singapores move from low-wage low-tech to high-wage high-tech manufacturing in the late 1970s. HYPERLINK l _

43、bookmark4 3 Another key contribution of this paper is its predominant focus on developing and emerging economies and these countries specific challenges such as comparatively low technical capacity and limited fiscal space. In contrast, most of the relevant literature has dealt with the coal transit

44、ion in developed countries.The rest of this paper is structured as follows: Section 2 introduces a conceptual framework for the processes of divestiture of labor, irrespective of whether one considers the coal sector or other industries. Section 3 discusses the main instruments for mitigating social

45、 and labor impacts during pre-layoff planning, pre-layoff assistance, and post-layoff assistance. Section 4 elaborates on considerations regarding select implementation issues including the institutional and local context and the dynamics of change. Section 5 concludes.Conceptual frameworkWhether on

46、e considers the coal sector or other industries, following Fretwell (2017), processes of divestiture of labor can be grouped into three major phases: Pre-layoff planning, pre-layoff assistance and post-layoff assistance. Pre-layoff planning is the process of (i) collecting information to identify th

47、e extent and nature of the social and labor challenge (i.e., identification of workers to be affected by divesture decisions, impacts on auxiliary social services, and assistance needs); (ii) reviewing relevant labor regulations and the social protection system; and(iii) setting up of institutions a

48、nd partnerships to support workers transitions and beginning a communications campaign. Pre-layoff assistance is intended to prepare workers for impending layoffs and includes (i) giving notice of dismissal to affected workers; (ii) providing information regarding assistance options; and (iii) imple

49、menting services such as worker profiling and skill audits to understand individual skills and assistance needs, as well as job counseling and placement services. Post-layoff assistance is the most active and costly phase and encompasses3 On the policy level, ILO (2015) has issued a set of non-bindi

50、ng guidelines for a just transition covering social protection and active labor market policies, among other areas, while UNFCCC (2016) has issued a technical paper that providesguidance on how to approachthe issue of a just transition at the national level.Complementary initiativesthe provision of

51、temporary income support and implementation of active labor market policies to individual displaced workers and potentially a wider group of beneficiaries. If necessary, the phase also involves the deployment of social programs that help ensure that displaced workers and their families have continue

52、d access to health, education, and similar services.Source: Authors partly based on Fretwell (2017)Consider auxiliary servicesImplement active labor market policiesProvide temporary income supportPost-layoff assistanceBegin provision of certain servicesInform workers of assistance optionsGive pre-la

53、yoff noticePre-layoff assistanceSet-up institutions and partnerships and begincommunicationsReview labor regulations affecting labordivesture and the social protection systemIdentify workers to be affected by thedivestiture process, impacts on auxiliary social services and potential needs for assist

54、ancePre-layoff planningFigure 1 Stylized process of divesture of laborThe three phases in the process of divestiture of labor should ideally be addressed in a sequential fashion. However, in practice they may overlap. In some cases, the first two phases may not be addressed in-depth if layoffs begin

55、 quickly with little forward planning, which can in particular occur in cases of a sudden shock to a sector: Caldecott et al. (2017a) emphasizes that coal mine closures often happen quickly and without forewarning, leaving stakeholders little choice but to catch up with reality (also cf. Section 4 f

56、or a discussion of the dynamics of change). In parallel to the three phases of labor divesture, complementary initiatives beyond the realm of social protection and labor initiatives for directly displaced workers and their families should alsobe considered such as efforts to promote local economic d

57、evelopment and environmental rehabilitation (cf. Figure 1 for a stylized depiction of the process of divesture of labor).Instruments for mitigating social and labor impactsPre-layoff planningThe first step in the process of labor divesture is to identify which workers will lose their jobs. Very ofte

58、n divestiture comprises the total closure of a coal mine or other plant, but there are also instances of partial closures. In the case of a partial closure, after having defined the new business plans regarding markets, products and volumes, the organization and utilization of labor must be defined

59、to reach the desired efficiency. In order for the coal mine to become at least as productive as its competitors, organization and employment levels should be compared with the situation in competitor mines to provide an indication of staffing needs. Next, an analysis of the skills and competencies o

60、f the existing personnel must be performed. Whenever possible, personnel meeting the new requirements should be selected from the existing staff. It might be possible to retrain some staff, including educating managers to undertake new management responsibilities. In some cases, new staff or manager