城市公交系統(tǒng)中的PPP：項(xiàng)目識(shí)別和準(zhǔn)備的分析框架

1、Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark151 Acknowledgments ix HYPERLINK l _bookmark152 About the Authors xi HYPERLINK l _bookmark153 Abbreviations xiii HYPERLINK l _bookmark154 Glossary xv HYPERLINK l _bookmark155 Overview and Key Messages1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark156 Rationale1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark157 Structu

2、re 2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark158 Methodology 2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark160 How to Use This Document 2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark163 Key Messages 4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark164 Notes 6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark167 References 7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark168 PART I HYPERLINK l _bookmark168 INITIAL CONSIDERATIONS HYPERLINK l _

3、bookmark169 CHAPTER 1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark169 The Challenges of Private Sector Participation in HYPERLINK l _bookmark169 Urban Bus Systems11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark170 What is a public-private partnership in urban bus systems? HYPERLINK l _bookmark170 11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark173 The analytical framew

4、ork14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark175 The public-private partnership project cycle15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark177 Common challenges of urban bus public-private partnerships HYPERLINK l _bookmark177 16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark181 Further discussion19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark184 Notes20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark189 Refere

5、nces21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark190 CHAPTER 2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark190 Project Stakeholders and Objectives23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark193 References25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark194 CHAPTER 3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark194 Alternative Ways to Improve Urban Mobility HYPERLINK l _bookmark194 without a Public-Private Part

6、nership27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark195 Support private sector initiatives to promote user-friendly HYPERLINK l _bookmark195 technologies 28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark196 Implement punctual infrastructure-related interventions 29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark199 Use legal alternatives to enforce an improvement in bus

7、 services 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark201 References 32iii HYPERLINK l _bookmark202 CHAPTER 4 Minimum Requirements to Consider for a Public-Private HYPERLINK l _bookmark202 Partnership35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark205 Technical elements36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark206 Fiscal capacity 37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark208 In

8、stitutional and regulatory elements 38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark212 Notes 39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark219 References 39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark220 PART IITHE RISK MATRIX HYPERLINK l _bookmark221 CHAPTER 5 Managing Risk Using a Risk Matrix 43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark222 Overview and guiding principles 43 HYPERLIN

9、K l _bookmark224 Identifying project risks 44 HYPERLINK l _bookmark228 Mapping bus project risks to project functions 47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark231 Note 49 HYPERLINK l _bookmark233 References 49 HYPERLINK l _bookmark234 CHAPTER 6 Risks That Merit Special Attention 51 HYPERLINK l _bookmark235 Dealing w

10、ith incumbent operators 51 HYPERLINK l _bookmark240 Managing demand risk at the design stage 54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark244 Defining technology components 57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark246 Notes 60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark249 References 60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark250 CHAPTER 7 Allocating Functions and Assigning Ri

11、sks 61 HYPERLINK l _bookmark251 Planning 61 HYPERLINK l _bookmark258 Design 63 HYPERLINK l _bookmark264 Financing 64 HYPERLINK l _bookmark273 Construction 68 HYPERLINK l _bookmark278 Operations 70 HYPERLINK l _bookmark287 Maintenance 73 HYPERLINK l _bookmark291 Notes 75 HYPERLINK l _bookmark307 Refe

12、rences 75 HYPERLINK l _bookmark308 Topical bibliography 78 HYPERLINK l _bookmark309 CHAPTER 8 Managing Indirect Risks 83 HYPERLINK l _bookmark311 Macroeconomic risks 83 HYPERLINK l _bookmark312 Political risks 84 HYPERLINK l _bookmark314 Social unrest 84 HYPERLINK l _bookmark316 Regulatory risks 85

13、HYPERLINK l _bookmark318 Government obligations 86 HYPERLINK l _bookmark319 Early termination 86 HYPERLINK l _bookmark320 Changes in law 87 HYPERLINK l _bookmark321 Natural disasters 87 HYPERLINK l _bookmark322 Climate 87 HYPERLINK l _bookmark324 Force majeure 88 HYPERLINK l _bookmark325 Working thr

14、ough the risk matrix 88 HYPERLINK l _bookmark326 Note 88 HYPERLINK l _bookmark328 References 88 HYPERLINK l _bookmark329 Topical bibliography 90 HYPERLINK l _bookmark330 PART IIIDEFINING THE PROJECT STRUCTURE HYPERLINK l _bookmark331 CHAPTER 9 Examples of Urban Bus Project Structures 97 HYPERLINK l

15、_bookmark333 Model 1: Bundled private finance and operation of buses 97 HYPERLINK l _bookmark339 Model 2: Unbundling fleet provision and operation 101 HYPERLINK l _bookmark342 Model 3: Private provision of bus rapid transit infrastructure, HYPERLINK l _bookmark342 bundled or unbundled 104 HYPERLINK

16、l _bookmark345 Model 4: Private finance and operation of electric buses 107 HYPERLINK l _bookmark349 Notes 111 HYPERLINK l _bookmark356 References 111 HYPERLINK l _bookmark357 CHAPTER 10 Selecting Funding Sources and Financing HYPERLINK l _bookmark357 Instruments 113 HYPERLINK l _bookmark358 Structu

17、ring a projects capital 113 HYPERLINK l _bookmark360 Public financing instruments 115 HYPERLINK l _bookmark363 Private financing instruments 117 HYPERLINK l _bookmark366 Funding sources 123 HYPERLINK l _bookmark368 Setting up subsidies 127 HYPERLINK l _bookmark369 Notes 129 HYPERLINK l _bookmark374

18、References 129 HYPERLINK l _bookmark375 CHAPTER 11 Defining the Essential Elements of a Bus Projects HYPERLINK l _bookmark375 Concession Contract 131 HYPERLINK l _bookmark377 Technical elements 131 HYPERLINK l _bookmark380 Institutional and regulatory elements 134 HYPERLINK l _bookmark382 Economic a

19、nd financial elements 137 HYPERLINK l _bookmark384 Notes 139 HYPERLINK l _bookmark388 References 139 HYPERLINK l _bookmark389 Appendix A Lessons Learned from International Experience 141 HYPERLINK l _bookmark418 Appendix B Assessing the Value for Money of a Public-Private HYPERLINK l _bookmark418 Pa

20、rtnership 165 HYPERLINK l _bookmark419 Appendix C Tools to Aid Decision-Making 169Boxes HYPERLINK l _bookmark178 The rise and fall of the bus rapid transit PPP 16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark180 A public-private partnership: Three reasons why 18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark237 Interacting with incumbent operators

21、: Lessons from around the world 52 HYPERLINK l _bookmark239 International lesson for dealing with incumbent operators 53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark241 Improving demand modeling using survey results 54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark243 International lessons for managing demand risk at the design stage 57 HYPERLINK

22、 l _bookmark245 International lessons for defining technology components 59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark252 International lessons for acquiring land 62 HYPERLINK l _bookmark256 International lessons for managing stakeholders 63 HYPERLINK l _bookmark259 International lessons for changing the scope of work 6

23、4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark261 International lessons for managing environmental and social risks 64 HYPERLINK l _bookmark266 International lessons for managing financial risk 65 HYPERLINK l _bookmark267 International lessons for managing financial closure risk 65 HYPERLINK l _bookmark268 International l

24、esson for managing affordability risk 66 HYPERLINK l _bookmark269 International lessons for managing fare evasion and cash risk 67 HYPERLINK l _bookmark270 International lessons for managing financial coordination risk 68 HYPERLINK l _bookmark274 International lesson for managing construction delay

25、risk 69 HYPERLINK l _bookmark275 International lessons for managing component interface risk 69 HYPERLINK l _bookmark277 International lesson for handling completion and commissioning risk 70 HYPERLINK l _bookmark281 International lessons for achieving quality and level of service 71 HYPERLINK l _bo

26、okmark282 International lessons for reducing congestion 72 HYPERLINK l _bookmark283 International lessons for handling repayment 72 HYPERLINK l _bookmark284 International lesson for ensuring adequate fuel supply 73 HYPERLINK l _bookmark285 International lesson for using other infrastructure 73 HYPER

27、LINK l _bookmark288 International lessons for maintaining a fleet 74 HYPERLINK l _bookmark290 International lesson for maintaining infrastructure 74 HYPERLINK l _bookmark313 International lessons for minimizing political risks 84 HYPERLINK l _bookmark315 International lessons for managing social unr

28、est risk 85 HYPERLINK l _bookmark317 International lesson for managing regulatory risks86 HYPERLINK l _bookmark323 International lessons for managing climate risks88 HYPERLINK l _bookmark421 C.1Questions to ask when considering an urban bus public-private HYPERLINK l _bookmark421 partnership170Figur

29、es HYPERLINK l _bookmark161 O.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark161 The four stages of the public-private partnership project cycle HYPERLINK l _bookmark161 3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark174 1.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark174 Delivery models, by the degree of risk and cost transferred to HYPERLINK l _bookmark174 the privat

30、e sector14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark176 1.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark176 Key elements of the public-private partnership project cycle, by HYPERLINK l _bookmark176 stage HYPERLINK l _bookmark176 15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark230 5.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark230 Risk categories and project functions48 HYPERLINK l _book

31、mark334 9.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark334 Model 1: The private financing and operation of buses98 HYPERLINK l _bookmark340 9.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark340 Example of arrangements for financing a private bus operator HYPERLINK l _bookmark340 101 HYPERLINK l _bookmark341 9.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark341 Model 2:

32、Private financing and operation of buses with separate HYPERLINK l _bookmark341 contracts for fleet provision and bus operations102 HYPERLINK l _bookmark343 9.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark343 Model 3: Private finance of both infrastructure and buses using HYPERLINK l _bookmark343 unbundled contracts105 HY

33、PERLINK l _bookmark347 9.5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark347 Model 4: Arrangements for financing a private bus operator HYPERLINK l _bookmark347 with electric buses 108 HYPERLINK l _bookmark361 10.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark361 Simplified representation of a capital stack115Photos HYPERLINK l _bookmark197 Bus-on

34、ly lanes of shared roads in Madrid, Spain 30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark198 Exclusive, physically segregated lane for bus rapid transit in HYPERLINK l _bookmark198 Buenos Aires, Argentina 30Tables HYPERLINK l _bookmark172 1.1Components of an urban bus project, by function and typical type of provision, HY

35、PERLINK l _bookmark172 public or private 13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark191 Elements of stakeholder analysis: Stage 1: Planning vs. Stage 3: Structuring HYPERLINK l _bookmark191 and Tendering 23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark192 Examples of the objectives and restrictions of key stakeholders 24 HYPERLINK l _bookmar

36、k200 3.1Substantive differences between a concession and an authorization 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark225 Categories and types of direct risk, organized by project stage 45 HYPERLINK l _bookmark226 Definition of direct project risks 46 HYPERLINK l _bookmark227 Categories and types of indirect risk 47 HY

37、PERLINK l _bookmark229 Definition of indirect risks 48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark238 B6.1.1 Examples of engagement with incumbent operators 52 HYPERLINK l _bookmark365 10.1Summary of the World Bank Groups instruments 122 HYPERLINK l _bookmark378 Remuneration arrangements and incentives 132 HYPERLINK l _b

38、ookmark383 Situations affecting economic equilibrium 138 HYPERLINK l _bookmark392 Lessons learned from the Metropolitano bus rapid transit project HYPERLINK l _bookmark392 in Lima, Peru 142 HYPERLINK l _bookmark393 Lessons learned from the Transantiago bus rapid transit project in HYPERLINK l _bookm

39、ark393 Santiago, Chile 144 HYPERLINK l _bookmark394 Lessons learned from the TransMilenio bus rapid transit project in HYPERLINK l _bookmark394 Bogot, Colombia 145 HYPERLINK l _bookmark397 Lessons learned from the Metrobs bus rapid transit project in HYPERLINK l _bookmark397 Mexico City, Mexico 147

40、HYPERLINK l _bookmark398 Lessons learned from the Ecova bus rapid transit project in HYPERLINK l _bookmark398 Monterrey, Mexico 148 HYPERLINK l _bookmark399 Lessons learned from the Acabs bus rapid transit project in HYPERLINK l _bookmark399 Acapulco, Mexico 150 HYPERLINK l _bookmark400 Lessons lear

41、ned from the Metrocali bus rapid transit project in HYPERLINK l _bookmark400 Cali, Colombia 151 HYPERLINK l _bookmark401 Lessons learned from the SYTRAL integrated public transportation HYPERLINK l _bookmark401 system in Lyon, France 152 HYPERLINK l _bookmark402 Lessons learned from the DART Phase I

42、 bus rapid transit project in HYPERLINK l _bookmark402 Dar es Salaam, Tanzania153 HYPERLINK l _bookmark405 Main characteristics of Metrobs-Q corridors in Quito, Ecuador154 HYPERLINK l _bookmark406 Lessons learned from the Metrobs-Q System in Quito, Ecuador155 HYPERLINK l _bookmark407 Lessons learned

43、 from the Avanza Zaragoza concession in Zaragoza, HYPERLINK l _bookmark407 Spain156 HYPERLINK l _bookmark408 Lessons learned for urban mobility in Port-au-Prince, Haiti157 HYPERLINK l _bookmark409 Lessons learned from the TransOeste bus rapid transit project in HYPERLINK l _bookmark409 Rio de Janeir

44、o, Brazil158 HYPERLINK l _bookmark410 Lessons learned from the business collaboration agreements HYPERLINK l _bookmark410 in Medelln, Colombia160 HYPERLINK l _bookmark411 Lessons learned from the business collaboration agreements HYPERLINK l _bookmark411 in Singapore 161 HYPERLINK l _bookmark420 Sta

45、keholders objectives and restrictions template 169 HYPERLINK l _bookmark422 Risk matrix template 173 HYPERLINK l _bookmark423 Template for listing funding sources and financing instruments, HYPERLINK l _bookmark423 by component 173 HYPERLINK l _bookmark424 Essential elements of an operation concessi

46、on contract 174 HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 AcknowledgmentsThis report is the result of a joint initiative of the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) and the World Banks Transport and Digital Development and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practices.This report w

47、as prepared by a World Bank team led by Alejandro Hoyos Guerrero (senior transport specialist) and comprising Abel Lopez Dodero (senior transport specialist), the Castalia Advisory Group (including Andrew Losos and Diego Recinos), Bernardo Weaver (infrastructure finance consultant), Andrs Gmez-Lobo

48、(transport policy consultant), Guillermo muoz Senda (transport planning consultant), max Hamrick (consultant), Fayre makeig (edi- tor), and Licette moncayo (program assistant). The work was published under the leadership of Nicols Peltier-Thiberge (practice manager) and vivien Foster (chief economis

49、t, Infrastructure vice-Presidency).The report draws on background papers, case studies, and additional contri- butions prepared by the aforementioned team and the following contributors: Inteligencia Pblica (including Liliana Estrada and marco Cancino), Heritage Capital, Felipe Targa (senior urban t

50、ransport specialist), Cesar vargas (senior executive structured finance, CAF), Fabian vignettes (consultant), Antonio Huerta (transport finance consultant), Roberto Abraham vargas (transport director, BANOBRAS), Barbara Almorejo (transport concessions legal consul- tant), and Blanca Domine (transpor

51、t consultant).Incisive and helpful advice and comments were received from Shomik mehndiratta (practice manager), Pankaj Gupta (chief upstream officer, IFC), Camila Rodrguez Hernndez (regional upstream lead, infrastructure and energy, Latin America, IFC), Luciana Guimaraes (PPIAF program officer), Da

52、niel Benitez (senior transport economist), Cecilia Briceo-Garmendia (lead economist), Bianca Bianchi Alves (senior urban transport specialist), and Roger Gorham (senior transport economist).The team wants to thank viviana Tobn Jaramillo, former transport director at Area metropolitana del valle de A

53、burra, for useful input about the projects undertaken in medelln, Colombia.ixThe team is thankful for the peer reviewers detailed review and insightful comments. Peer reviewers included Arturo Ardila Gmez (lead transport econ- omist), Rob Pilkington (senior urban finance specialist), Philippe Neves

54、(senior infrastructure specialist), Navaid A. Qureshi (chief industry specialist), and Leonardo Can Rubiano (senior urban transport specialist).This work was made possible by the financial contribution of PPIAF, HYPERLINK / , and the Korea Green Growth Trust Fund, HYPERLINK http:/www鈥/? http:/www HY

55、PERLINK http:/www鈥/? . HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 About the AuthorsAlejandro Hoyos Guerrero is a senior transport specialist in the World Banks Transport and Digital Development and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practices. He joined the Bank in 2012 and works on urban transportat

56、ion projects mainly in the Latin America and the Caribbean Region. Hoyos Guerrero is passionate about how to maximize the sustainability and impact of transportation projects from various perspectives, including design and implementation of national urban transportation programs, structur- ing of me

57、tro and bus rapid transport projects and reform of bus systems, private participation in urban transportation, intelligent transport systems, and electric buses as well as the challenge of maximizing the sustainability and impact of transportation projects. He holds an LLm and a BA in economics from

58、 Carlos III University of madrid, and an mA in international business administration that was funded by ICEX.Abel Lopez Dodero is a senior transport specialist at the World Bank in the mexico City office. He joined the Bank in 2013 and has devoted considerable effort toward improving its knowledge b

59、ase on the implementation of urban transportation projects. He manages a portfolio of projects, mainly within the Latin America and the Caribbean Region, and provides technical support to other regions. Lopez Doderos primary areas of expertise include analyzing the impacts of informality in the prov

60、ision of urban transportation, and infrastructure finance. He holds a BA in economics from Universidad Cristobal Colon in mexico; mAs in economics and in planning and development for devel- oping countries from the Universidad de las Americas Puebla and the University of Sheffield, respectively; and