項目選擇課件

1、第二章項目選擇2022/7/30第二章項目選擇第1頁，共54頁。Project selection is the process of evaluating individual projects or groups of projects, and then choosing to implement some set of them so that the objectives of the parent organization will be achieved(項目選擇是對單個或一組項目進行評估并選擇實施對象從而實現(xiàn)母公司目標的過程). This same systematic pro

2、cess can be applied to any area of the organizations business in which choices must be made between competing alternatives(在公司運營過程中，當需要在多個競爭性方案之間進行選擇的時候，也同樣可以應用這種方法).Choosing a number of projects, a portfolio, is even more complex(選擇一個項目組合，即多個不同的項目，甚至更加復雜).第二章項目選擇第2頁，共54頁。一、項目選擇的含義項目選擇是指對單個或一組項目進行評估

3、并選擇實施對象從而實現(xiàn)公司目標的過程。如：一家制造企業(yè)可以借助評估選擇技術確定在部件組裝流程中使用哪一種設備；建筑公司可以在一組投標項目中作出最佳的選擇等。第二章項目選擇第3頁，共54頁。PM is a key person in project selection, particularly if a Request for proposal(RFP,項目建議書) was involved.In this chapter we discuss several techniques that can be used to help senior managers select projects

4、. Project selection is only one of many decisions associated with project management. To deal with all of these problems, we use decision-aiding models(決策輔助模型). This process of caving away the unwanted reality from the bones of a problem is called modeling the problem(從問題的實質中剔除不必要的因素的過程就稱為問題模型化). In

5、 other words, the idealized version of the problem that results is called a model(對問題的理想化描述就是模型). The model represents the problems structure, its form. The model can be shown with many forms, such as graphs(曲線), analogies(類比), diagrams(圖表), flow graph(流程圖), network models(網(wǎng)絡圖), and symbolic(mathema

6、tical) models. The model may be quite simple to understand, or they may be extremely complex. 第二章項目選擇第4頁，共54頁。在進行項目選擇時，常使用決策模型（decision-aiding model)（即項目選擇模型）。模型可以簡化問題，也可以展示問題結構(structure)。模型可能很容易理解，也可能非常復雜。第二章項目選擇第5頁，共54頁。二、項目選擇模型的評估標準合理選擇投資項目，對每一家企業(yè)都至關重要。公司在選擇項目模型的時候，應考慮下列標準：1、 realism(實用性).The mo

7、del should reflect the reality of the managers decision situation, including the multiple objectives of both the firm and its managers. Without a common measurement system, direction comparison of different projects is impossible. For example, project A may strengthen a firms market share by extendi

8、ng its facilities, and project B might improve its competitive position by strengthening its technical staff. Other things being equal, which is better? The model should take into account the realities of the firms limitations on facilities, capital, personnel, etc. The model should also include fac

9、tors that reflect project risks, including the technical risks of performance, cost, and time as well as the market risks of customer rejection and other implementation risks.第二章項目選擇第6頁，共54頁。1、實用性。如：項目A通過添置設備可以增加企業(yè)的市場占有率，項目B通過增加技術人員可以提高競爭地位，當其他條件相同時，哪個項目更好？（此時應充分考慮企業(yè)設備、資本、人力資源等方面的局限綜合考慮。）第二章項目選擇第7頁，

10、共54頁。2、 capability(功能性). The model should be sophisticated enough to deal with multiple time periods, simulate various situations both internal and external to the project(e.g., strikes, interest rate changes, etc.), and optimize the decision. An optimizing model will make the comparison that manage

11、ment deems important, consider major risks and constraints on the projects, and then select the best overall project or set of projects.第二章項目選擇第8頁，共54頁。2、功能性。模型的完善程度應適合多個時期，能夠模擬項目內(nèi)部和外部的各種條件，并能夠使決策最優(yōu)化。第二章項目選擇第9頁，共54頁。3、 flexibility(靈活性).The model should give valid results within the range of conditio

12、ns to be self-adjusting in response to changes in the firms environment; for example, tax laws change, new technological advancements alter risk levels, and above all, the organizations goals change.4、 ease of use(易用性).The model should be reasonably convenient, not take a long time to execute, and b

13、e ease to use and understand. It should not require special interpretation, data that are difficult to acquire, excessive personnel, or unavailable equipment. The models variables should also relate to one-to-one with those real-world parameters the managers believe significant to the project. Final

14、ly, it should be easy to simulate the expected outcomes associated with investments in different project portfolios.5、cost(成本)Data-gathering and modeling costs should be low relative to the cost of the project and must surely be less than the potential benefits of the project. All costs should be co

15、nsidered, including the costs of data management and of running the model第二章項目選擇第10頁，共54頁。3、靈活性。即模型應根據(jù)企業(yè)可能遇到的各種情況給出正確的結果。同時，模型應具有易于調整或自我調節(jié)的能力，以適應企業(yè)環(huán)境的變化（如稅法變動、技術進步等因素）。4、易用性。即模型應易于使用和理解，數(shù)據(jù)易于獲得，而不需要花費過多的時間。5、成本性。即數(shù)據(jù)收集和建立模型的成本要低于相應的項目成本，而且還要求低于項目的潛在收益。第二章項目選擇第11頁，共54頁。三、項目選擇模型的類型兩種基本選擇模型：數(shù)學模型非數(shù)學模型第二章項

16、目選擇第12頁，共54頁。1、非數(shù)學模型（nonnumeric models)1) the sacred cow(圣牛).In this case the project is suggested by a senior and powerful official in the organization. Often the project is initiated with a simple comment such as“if you have a chance, why dont you look into,” and there follows an undeveloped idea

17、for a new product, for the development of a new market, for the design and adoption of a global data base and information system, or for some other project requiring an investment of the firms resources. The immediate result of this bland statement is the creation of a “project” to investigate whate

18、ver the boss has suggested. The project is “sacred” in the sense that it will be maintained until successfully concluded, or until the boss, personally, recognizes the idea as a failure and terminates it.第二章項目選擇第13頁，共54頁。1）圣牛（The Sacred Cow)模型。指項目首先由組織中的高層權威人士提議，然后產(chǎn)生有關新產(chǎn)品的設想、新市場的開發(fā)等工作。高層權威的提議常常直接導致項

19、目的產(chǎn)生，從此意義而言，項目是“神圣”的，在未得到滿意的結果之前，或高層已意識到該創(chuàng)意失敗需要終止該項目之前，該項目將會一直存在下去。第二章項目選擇第14頁，共54頁。2) the operating necessity(經(jīng)營需要).If a flood is threatening the plant, a project to build a protective dike does not require much formal evaluation. In other words, a firm select its project mainly according to the op

20、erating necessity.3) comparative benefit model(比較利益模型).The concept of comparative benefits is widely adopted for selection decisions on all sorts of projects. Most United Way organizations(許多社會組織) use the concept to make decisions about which of several social programs to fund. Senior management of

21、the funding organization then examines all projects with positive recommendations and attempts to construct a portfolio that best fits the organizations aims and its budget.Of the several techniques for ordering projects , the Q-Sort(Q排序) is one of the most straightforward. First, the projects are d

22、ivided into three groupsgood, fair, and pooraccording to their relative merits. If any group has more than eight members, it is subdivided into two categories, such as fair-plus(中上) and fair-minus(中下). When all categories have eight or fewer members, the projects within each categories are ordered f

23、rom best to worst. Again, the order is determined on the basis of relative merit. The rater may use specific criteria to rank each project, or may simply use general overall judgment(整體判斷方法).第二章項目選擇第15頁，共54頁。2）經(jīng)營需要模型。即項目的選擇完全是根據(jù)經(jīng)營需要來考慮，而不會過多的依靠模型來選擇。如：受洪水威脅的工廠，修建防護堤的項目就不需要過多的評估。3）比較利益模型。比較利益選擇最常見的就是

24、Q-排序模型，其中的排序就是根據(jù)相對優(yōu)點即比較利益進行的。Q-排序模型的步驟如下：第二章項目選擇第16頁，共54頁。第一步：為每位參與者準備一副卡片，每張卡片上寫上項目名稱和內(nèi)容第二步：讓每位參與者把卡片分為兩堆，一堆代表優(yōu)勢項目，另一堆代表劣勢項目（數(shù)量不必相同）第三步：讓每位參與者從每一堆卡片中抽出一些放一堆，代表中等優(yōu)勢項目。第四步：讓每位參與者從優(yōu)勢卡片中抽出一些放在一堆，代表最有優(yōu)勢的項目，再在劣勢卡片中抽出一些放一堆，代表最劣勢的項目第五步：最后，讓每位參與者考慮自己的選擇，權衡每一張卡片的擺放位置直到滿意為止。圖示如下：第二章項目選擇第17頁，共54頁。初始卡片高水平低水平高水平

25、中等水平低水平中等水平極高水平高水平低水平極低水平 Q-排序步驟第二章項目選擇第18頁，共54頁。4）專家意見模型（即Delphi模型）第二章項目選擇第19頁，共54頁。2、numeric modelsThere are two categories in numeric model, profit/profitability and scoring.1) profit/profitability(利潤/盈利能力數(shù)學模型).In practice, a larger majority of all firms using project evaluation and selection mod

26、els use profit/profitability as the sole measure of acceptability. This models are detailed as following: payback period(回收期). The payback period for a project is the initial fixed investment in the project divided by the estimated annual cash inflows from the project. The ratio of these quantities

27、is the number of years required for the project to repay its initial fixed investment(項目回收期等于項目最初的固定投資除以每年預計的現(xiàn)金流入。這個比率就是項目收回固定投資的年限). 第二章項目選擇第20頁，共54頁。2、數(shù)學模型數(shù)學模型又分為：利潤盈利能力模型評分模型第二章項目選擇第21頁，共54頁。1）利潤/盈利能力模型項目回收期（payback period)。它等于項目最初的固定投資除以每年預計的現(xiàn)金流入。即項目回收期=初始投資/（每年營業(yè)現(xiàn)金流入+折舊）應用：項目回收期應與標準投資回收期相比較進行選擇

28、。難點：每年現(xiàn)金流入不等時如何計算投資回收期？優(yōu)點：簡單缺點：未考慮貨幣時間價值舉例第二章項目選擇第22頁，共54頁。 average rate return(平均回報率). Often mistaken as the reciprocal of the payback period, the average rate of return is the ratio of the average annual profit(either before or after taxes) to the initial or average investment in the project(平均回報率

29、常常被錯誤地認為是回收期的倒數(shù)。而平均回報率是平均年利潤（稅前或稅后）與項目最初投資或平均投資的比率). 第二章項目選擇第23頁，共54頁。平均回報率（Average Rate of Return)。它是平均利潤（稅前或稅后）與項目最初投資或平均投資的比率。應用：回報率越高，項目投資價值越大。優(yōu)點：簡單缺點：未考慮貨幣時間價值舉例第二章項目選擇第24頁，共54頁。 discounted cash flow(現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)). Also referred to as the net present value method, the discounted cash flow method dete

30、rmines the net present value of all cash flows by discounting them by the required rate of return(also known as the hurdle rate, cutoff rate, and similar terms)(這種方法也稱為凈現(xiàn)值法，現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)法是用最低投資回報率（也稱為臨界報酬率等）折現(xiàn)所有的現(xiàn)金流量).第二章項目選擇第25頁，共54頁。凈現(xiàn)值（Net Present Value，NPV）。它是指用最低投資回報率去折現(xiàn)或貼現(xiàn)所有的現(xiàn)金凈流量所得到的總和。（注意凈現(xiàn)值三種結果的含義

31、）舉例如下：建設謀公司擬安裝一條生產(chǎn)線，初始設備投資125000元，設備安裝費100000元，物料投放系統(tǒng)和生產(chǎn)線調試費90000元。運輸和安裝設備需1年時間，調試整套設備又需1年時間。工程師估計從第四年開始每兩年一次的定期大修需要支出15000元，但最后1年不需進行大修。項目計劃在第三年開始生產(chǎn)。在運營的第一年因生產(chǎn)成本節(jié)約和利潤增加的總額為50000元，預計在第二年達到最大值120000元，以后幾年年如表所示。項目壽命假定為10年，10年后設備報廢的殘值為35000元。第二章項目選擇第26頁，共54頁。假設該公司要求的最低回報率為12%，估計在項目壽命周期內(nèi)的通貨膨脹率為3%。假設初始投資

32、發(fā)生在年初，其他收入支出發(fā)生在年末。根據(jù)以上資料，可以繪制如下的凈現(xiàn)值分析表（見下頁）第二章項目選擇第27頁，共54頁。年份A流入（元）B流出（元）C凈流量（元）D=（B-C）折現(xiàn)率1/（1+k+p）t凈現(xiàn)值（元）D（折現(xiàn)后）19960125000-1250001.0000-12500019960100000-1000000.8696-869601997090000-900000.7561-680491998500000500000.6575328751999120000150001050000.571860039200011500001150000.497257178200110500015

33、000900000.4323389072002970000970000.37593646220039000015000750000.3269245182004820000820000.2843233132005650000650000.247216068200535000（殘值）350000.24728652total75900036000039900018003 凈現(xiàn)值分析表第二章項目選擇第28頁，共54頁。第二章項目選擇第29頁，共54頁。從上表可看出，該項目的總現(xiàn)金流入為759000元，或者說10年中平均每年現(xiàn)金流入為75900元。項目所需總投資為315000元（忽略每兩年的大修理支出）

34、。假定用直線法折舊，則10年中每年折舊為31500元（假設不考慮殘值）。則該項目的投資回收期為：回收期=315000/（75900+31500）=2.9（年）再看該項目的凈現(xiàn)值為：18003元，是正數(shù)，表示可以接受該項目。第二章項目選擇第30頁，共54頁。 profitability index(盈利能力指數(shù)). Also known as the benefit-cost ratio, the profitability index is the net present value of all future expected cash flows divided by the initia

35、l cash investment(也稱做成本-收益比率，盈利能力指數(shù)是未來現(xiàn)金流量的凈現(xiàn)值除以初始現(xiàn)金投資). If this ratio is greater than 1.0, the project may be accepted.第二章項目選擇第31頁，共54頁?，F(xiàn)值指數(shù)法（Present Value Index)：是指投資項目的未來現(xiàn)金流入量現(xiàn)值與所需投資額現(xiàn)值之比，即：現(xiàn)值指數(shù)=未來現(xiàn)金流入量現(xiàn)值投資額現(xiàn)值現(xiàn)值指數(shù)三種結果的應用優(yōu)點：可以克服用NPV法不能用于對不同投資額方案進行比較和評價的缺點，從而使方案的評價更加合理、客觀。例如：第二章項目選擇第32頁，共54頁。現(xiàn)有兩個方案

36、，有關資料如下缺點（包括NPV）：思考？項目方案A方案B現(xiàn)金流入量現(xiàn)值（元）315004200投資額現(xiàn)值（元）300003000凈現(xiàn)值（元）15001200現(xiàn)值指數(shù)1.051.4第二章項目選擇第33頁，共54頁。 internal rate of return(內(nèi)含報酬率). If we have a set of expected cash inflows and cash outflows, the internal rate of return is the discount rate that equates the present values of the two sets of

37、flows. If At is an expected cash outflow in the period t and Rt is the expected inflow for the period t, the internal rate of return is the value of k that satisfies the following equation(note that the A0 will be positive in this formulation of the problem)(如果我們有一組預期的現(xiàn)金流入數(shù)據(jù)和現(xiàn)金流出數(shù)據(jù)，內(nèi)含報酬率IRR就是使現(xiàn)金流入現(xiàn)值

38、等于現(xiàn)金流出現(xiàn)值的折現(xiàn)率。如果At是第t期現(xiàn)金流出， Rt是第t期現(xiàn)金流入，滿足下面方程的k就是內(nèi)含報酬率（請注意：該等式中A0是正數(shù)）).第二章項目選擇第34頁，共54頁。 內(nèi)含報酬率（Internal Rate of Return，IRR). 如果我們有一組預期的現(xiàn)金流入數(shù)據(jù)和現(xiàn)金流出數(shù)據(jù)，內(nèi)含報酬率IRR就是使現(xiàn)金流入現(xiàn)值等于現(xiàn)金流出現(xiàn)值的折現(xiàn)率。如果At是第t期現(xiàn)金流出， Rt是第t期現(xiàn)金流入，滿足下面方程的k就是內(nèi)含報酬率（請注意：該等式中A0是正數(shù)）內(nèi)含報酬率公式如下：第二章項目選擇第35頁，共54頁。IRR的應用第一，在每年現(xiàn)金流入量相同情況下的應用方法：直接用插值法或查表法求解

39、公式為：每年現(xiàn)金流入量年金現(xiàn)值系數(shù)=現(xiàn)金流出量現(xiàn)值（或投資額現(xiàn)值），即年金現(xiàn)值系數(shù)=投資額現(xiàn)值/每年現(xiàn)金流入量然后，根據(jù)所求得的年金現(xiàn)值系數(shù)，利用年金現(xiàn)值系數(shù)表查表即得。第二章項目選擇第36頁，共54頁。第二，在每年現(xiàn)金流入量不等情況下的應用方法：試錯法（ trial and error method）。舉例(見下頁)優(yōu)點：?缺點：?第二章項目選擇第37頁，共54頁。The example for trial and error method is shown as following: There is a company. the company invest in a project f

40、or 120000 yuan( one-time investment), the duration of the project is 4 years. The estimated annual cash inflows are 30000 yuan, 40000 yuan, 50000 yuan, and 35000 yuan, respectively. Assume that the expected lowest rate of return for investment is 10%. Question: how does the company make decision for

41、 investment by IRR? we can use the trial and error method to solve the problem. In order to understand this method, we will list a table(see the following page)第二章項目選擇第38頁，共54頁。 yearAnnual cash inflow( yuan )First trial and error(8%)Second trial and error(12%)Third trial and error(10%)Discount facto

42、rPresent valueDiscount factorPresent valueDiscount factorPresent value 1 2 3 4The total present value of cash inflowMinus: the present value of investmentNet cash flow300004000050000350000.9260.8570.7940.7352778034280397002572512748512000074850.8930.7970.7120.63626790318803560022260116530120000(3470

43、)0.9090.8260.7510.683272703304037550239051217651200001765第二章項目選擇第39頁，共54頁。作業(yè)假設某項初始投資為6000元，在第一年末流入現(xiàn)金2500元，第二年末流入現(xiàn)金3000元，第三末流入現(xiàn)金3500元。計算：該項投資的報酬率是多少？ （要求至少試錯3次） 如果資金的成本為10%時，該 項投資的NPV是多少？第二章項目選擇第40頁，共54頁。2）評分模型為了克服盈利能力模型的一些缺陷（因為他們往往只考慮單一標準），可以使用多個標準來評估項目，即評分模型。評分模型分為：評分標準未加權的評分模型和評分標準要加權的評分模型評分標準未加權的

44、評分模型（如0-1評分模型，略）第二章項目選擇第41頁，共54頁。加權評分模型（Scoring Model）其公式為：其中： Si為第i個項目的總得分 Sij為第i個項目的第j個標準的得分 Wj為第j個標準的權重。第二章項目選擇第42頁，共54頁。加權評分模型舉例汽車選購例子 A. 購車標準和權重外觀剎車舒適運行成本買價操作穩(wěn)定性437510750.100.070.170.120.240.170.12總計410.99第二章項目選擇第43頁，共54頁。有關汽車的選購標準、測量信息和數(shù)據(jù)來源外觀 主觀判斷，個人剎車 剎車距離，60-0mph，汽車雜志舒適 主觀判斷，30分鐘道路測試運行成本 年保險

45、費加汽油費買價 經(jīng)銷商價格操作 標準障礙賽的平均速度穩(wěn)定性 消費者報告的評分，修理頻率數(shù)據(jù)第二章項目選擇第44頁，共54頁。 C. 汽車運行測試結果打分標準 分數(shù)12345外觀剎車舒適度運行成本買價操作穩(wěn)定性很差大于165很差大于2.5大于32.5小于45很差差165-150差2.1-2.526-32.545-49.5差一般150-140一般1.9-2.121-2649.5-55一般好140-130好1.6-1.917-2155-59好很好小于130很好小于1.6小于17大于59很好第二章項目選擇第45頁，共54頁。備選車Alternatives 標準和權重（ Criteria and wei

46、ghts）外觀Appearance(0.10)剎車Braking(0.07)舒適度Comfort(0.17)運行成本Cost, operating(0.12)買價Const, original(0.24)操作Handling(0.17)穩(wěn)定性Reliability(0.12)總分sijwjLeviathan 8nuevoeEconMaxivanSporticar 100Ritzy 30030.1=0.3030.1=0.302 0.1=0.205 0.1=0.504 0.1=0.401 0.07=0.073 0.07=0.211 0.07=0.074 0.07=0.285 0.07=0.354

47、0.17=0.682 0.17=0.344 0.17=0.683 0.17=0.515 0.17=0.852 0.12=0.245 0.12=0.604 0.12=0.482 0.12=0.242 0.12=0.241 0.24=0.244 0.24=0.963 0.24=0.722 0.24=0.481 0.24=0.242 0.17=0.342 0.17=0.341 0.17=0.175 0.17=0.854 0.17=0.683 0.12=0.364 0.12=0.483 0.12=0.362 0.12=0.245 0.12=0.602.233.232.683.103.36 D. 備選車的綜合加權評分表第二章項目選擇第46頁，共54頁。四、項目建議書（即項目設想和初選）項