春節(jié)期間風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示和節(jié)后策略建議

1、全球主要資產(chǎn)過去十年春節(jié)后首個(gè)交易日表現(xiàn)備注：考慮到2020年受疫情影響的特殊性，因此樣本中不含2020年數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Bloomberg Wind 華泰期貨研究院漲跌 美元指數(shù)道指滬深300美債10Y中債Wind有色布油金融Wind化工Wind谷物Wind軟商品倫敦黃金幅人民幣指數(shù)礦建材油料20100.68%0.00%2.81%-0.55%3.38%-0.72%-0.10%4.26%-1.17%1.31%7.20%2.12%-0.01%0.45%1.46%3.07%20110.31%-0.02%1.66%-1.18%-0.06%-1.43%-0.39%-0.18%0.00%-0.06%-1.52

2、%0.98%2.60%-1.49%1.66%2.52%2012-1.52%-0.13%-0.52%-1.73%-0.62%1.36%0.05%-0.59%-0.05%-0.07%0.71%-1.76%0.97%-0.07%-0.11%4.60%20130.30%0.04%-0.08%-1.24%-1.25%-0.30%0.11%-1.28%-2.42%-0.60%-1.29%-1.57%-0.70%0.25%-1.07%-3.45%20140.46%0.06%-0.34%0.46%0.41%0.47%0.27%0.11%-1.40%-1.22%1.47%-0.45%0.00%1.40%2.94

3、%1.35%20150.15%0.09%0.98%-1.24%-0.38%1.13%0.16%-0.31%-2.20%-0.58%-0.58%-0.22%0.18%-0.65%-0.33%-0.39%2016-0.57%-0.30%-1.43%-0.58%-1.47%0.35%0.31%-2.23%1.38%0.77%-5.24%1.19%0.59%-1.11%1.29%5.03%2017-0.09%-0.05%-0.15%-0.69%-1.04%0.38%-0.26%-0.52%-7.31%2.55%1.37%-3.66%0.79%1.16%-0.99%2.14%20180.43%0.16%

4、0.28%2.16%0.54%-0.03%0.05%-0.47%0.60%-0.32%2.84%0.25%0.30%0.14%1.66%-0.59%20191.14%0.62%-0.04%1.82%0.31%0.15%0.25%-0.94%0.52%-0.13%-1.99%-0.77%-0.32%0.72%0.31%-0.93%勝率70.00%60.00%40.00%30.00%40.00%60.00%70.00%20.00%40.00%30.00%50.00%40.00%70.00%60.00%60.00%60.00%美元兌Wind商品Wind煤焦鋼 Wind非金屬Wind油脂各大類資產(chǎn)春節(jié)

5、后首日的表現(xiàn)來(lái)看，10年期國(guó)債期貨和Wind谷物上漲概率最高，為70%；其次為軟商品、油脂油料、黃金，上漲 概率為60%。但考慮到目前人民銀行流動(dòng)性投放略偏緊、節(jié)后工業(yè)庫(kù)存累庫(kù)、冬季下游需求淡季，持倉(cāng)過節(jié)存在一定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。期間全球主要資產(chǎn)過去十年春節(jié)后五個(gè)交易日表現(xiàn)備注：考慮到2020年受疫情影響的特殊性，因此樣本中不含2020年數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Bloomberg Wind 華泰期貨研究院期間漲跌 美元指數(shù)幅人民幣指數(shù)礦建材油料2010-0.22%-0.01%2.24%0.93%1.57%1.42%0.88%2.26%-0.79%-1.69%-0.31%-0.92%1.08%0.23%0.28%-0.1

6、1%20110.77%0.01%1.55%4.56%0.26%0.01%0.38%0.40%-0.43%1.63%3.80%-0.38%0.03%1.86%-2.37%0.46%20120.14%0.08%1.11%0.08%1.00%-0.27%-0.45%0.39%0.25%1.85%5.06%4.19%1.60%1.14%1.93%-0.58%20131.24%0.12%0.05%-6.32%-2.67%1.01%0.04%-2.67%-4.27%-1.89%-3.80%-5.12%-0.01%0.55%-1.57%-1.52%2014-0.74%-0.03%1.13%3.50%-0.0

7、5%-0.30%0.04%-0.64%0.02%1.44%-0.36%0.27%-0.47%1.33%1.92%4.82%20150.97%0.23%0.86%-0.41%0.97%-1.49%-0.51%0.38%-0.63%1.81%-2.25%1.20%1.23%-0.25%1.36%-0.44%20160.68%0.07%1.15%2.96%1.89%0.23%0.00%2.34%5.44%3.35%2.07%1.44%-2.51%0.00%0.13%0.23%20170.82%0.38%0.36%0.25%2.25%0.28%-0.02%2.28%5.71%1.88%-0.30%2.

8、60%1.96%-0.63%2.41%1.08%20180.62%-0.28%0.55%1.43%2.31%0.16%0.35%-0.25%3.96%3.85%-3.08%2.91%0.15%1.16%2.77%-1.55%20190.29%0.24%3.27%2.81%-0.87%0.03%-0.21%0.67%-3.47%-3.22%6.20%-0.36%-2.56%-1.08%-0.43%1.46%勝率80.00%70.00%100.00%80.00%70.00%70.00%60.00%70.00%50.00%70.00%40.00%60.00%60.00%60.00%70.00%50.

9、00%美元兌道指滬深300Wind商品美債10Y中債Wind有色Wind煤焦鋼 Wind非金屬布油金融Wind化工Wind谷物Wind軟商品Wind油脂倫敦黃金各大類資產(chǎn)春節(jié)后5個(gè)交易日表現(xiàn)來(lái)看，做多股指勝率最高，道指和滬深300勝率分別為100%、80%；商品整體也表現(xiàn)不俗，其 中，Wind有色、非金屬建材、油脂油料勝率也高達(dá)70%。全球主要資產(chǎn)過去十年春節(jié)后二十個(gè)交易日表現(xiàn)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Bloomberg Wind 華泰期貨研究院期間漲跌 美元指數(shù)幅幣指數(shù)礦建材油料20100.30%-0.01%6.37%1.31%-0.24%1.31%1.42%0.24%1.79%-1.62%3.12%-4.

10、77%1.97%-1.06%0.18%-1.61%2011-1.55%-0.15%1.45%8.45%-5.89%0.88%1.31%-5.12%-6.89%-1.63%16.00%-12.01%-1.97%-3.92%-5.72%4.84%2012-0.56%-0.11%2.06%5.75%0.56%-0.49%-0.74%-0.36%-0.96%-1.56%11.30%4.85%2.27%-0.63%4.10%2.49%20132.09%-0.12%3.72%-8.36%-6.53%0.17%0.17%-6.11%-9.58%-6.25%-8.36%-13.36%-0.02%1.74%-6

11、.10%-0.43%2014-1.52%0.18%3.62%-1.31%-2.43%-1.85%0.51%-3.82%-6.51%-3.81%-0.48%-4.89%-0.23%1.97%5.66%6.04%20152.87%0.04%-0.20%12.80%2.37%0.39%-1.01%3.13%-2.65%2.72%-8.95%0.35%0.67%0.51%-2.14%-0.76%20160.28%-0.31%6.22%1.84%4.24%-1.90%0.21%4.99%11.99%8.29%20.62%5.42%-6.63%-0.51%0.50%2.86%20172.31%0.50%4

12、.49%1.39%2.60%-0.68%0.71%4.37%5.14%-2.35%-1.90%-4.70%3.47%-0.20%-2.04%0.93%2018-0.44%-0.57%-0.85%2.37%-3.82%0.17%1.09%-3.09%-10.15%-4.41%3.94%-1.65%-2.36%0.18%1.62%0.06%20190.76%-0.43%1.54%12.63%-2.31%0.58%-0.39%1.93%-5.87%-2.60%8.15%2.45%-1.13%-0.09%0.47%-1.04%勝率60.00%30.00%80.00%80.00%40.00%60.00%

13、70.00%50.00%30.00%20.00%60.00%40.00%40.00%40.00%60.00%60.00%美元兌人民道指滬深300Wind商品美債10Y中債Wind有色Wind煤焦鋼 Wind非金屬布油金融Wind化工Wind谷物Wind軟商品Wind油脂倫敦黃金股指在過去十年春節(jié)后二十個(gè)交易日表現(xiàn)同樣亮眼，道指和滬深300上漲概率高達(dá)80%，10年期中債勝率也有70%；商品漲跌分化， 原油、油脂油料、黃金表現(xiàn)相對(duì)強(qiáng)勢(shì)，做多勝率為60%。備注：考慮到2020年受疫情影響的特殊性，因此樣本中不含2020年中證500指數(shù)以及創(chuàng)業(yè)板指數(shù)在過去十年春節(jié)后的首個(gè)交易日中表現(xiàn)偏強(qiáng)，上漲概率均

14、超60%；而美國(guó)、英國(guó)和中國(guó)臺(tái)灣省股市 上漲概率高達(dá)80%。全球主要股指過去十年春節(jié)后首個(gè)交易日表現(xiàn)期間漲跌上證指數(shù)深證成指臺(tái)灣加權(quán)指數(shù)幅備注：考慮到2020年受疫情影響的特殊性，因此樣本中不含2020年數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Bloomberg Wind 華泰期貨研究院滬深300中證500上證50創(chuàng)業(yè)板指巴西道瓊斯IBOVESP 工業(yè)指A指數(shù)數(shù)納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)標(biāo)普500英國(guó)富時(shí)法國(guó)德國(guó)100CAC40DAX日經(jīng)225韓國(guó)綜合恒生澳洲印度指數(shù)指數(shù) 標(biāo)普200 SENSEX30 俄羅斯RTS2010-0.49%-0.74%1.59%-0.55%0.08%-0.67%2.02%2.81%2.68%3.02%4.08

15、%4.38%3.42%3.05%2.10%0.54%3.41%0.52%4.35%2011-0.89%-1.53%-1.51%-1.18% -0.45%-1.30%-0.72%-5.35%1.66%1.38%1.02%1.59%0.44%1.90%3.34%-1.28%-1.36% 3.21%-2.38%-0.51%2012-1.47%-2.02%2.40%-1.73% -0.70%-1.82%0.75%0.73%-0.52%0.91%-0.18%-1.00%-1.68%0.63%0.30%-0.48%0.25%0.78%0.74%3.35%2013-0.45%-1.93%0.47%-1.24

16、%0.53%-1.36%1.49%-1.51%-0.08% -0.06%0.12%0.87%0.48%-0.31% 2.28%1.59%0.72%1.85%0.08%-0.72%20140.56%0.58%-0.89%0.46%1.86%-0.14%2.45%1.76%-0.34%0.07%0.16%0.51%1.15%-0.76% -3.63%-0.96%-1.81% -0.42%-0.59%1.56%2015-0.56%-1.53%1.78%-1.24% -0.08%-1.55%-0.93%2.32%0.98%1.39%0.64%0.54%2.70%2.89%3.33%1.48%-0.03

17、% 1.48%-0.44%-1.20%2016-0.63%-0.05%0.04%-0.58%0.07%-0.97%0.95%-1.23%-1.43% -0.59%-0.81%-0.41%-2.03%-0.85% -4.74%-2.90%-1.92% -2.67%-4.32%-2.57%2017-0.60%-0.47%0.08%-0.69% -0.27%-1.02%-0.50%-1.87%-0.15%0.20%0.03%0.37%-0.86%-1.66% -2.50%-0.50%-1.05% -0.88%1.92%2.30%20182.17%2.18%2.32%2.16%2.10%2.09%1.

18、88%3.76%0.28%0.93%0.20%0.53%2.79%0.99%2.75%-0.31%1.47%1.88%-0.99%4.51%20191.36%3.06%0.72%1.82%2.53%1.11%3.53%-3.52%-0.04%0.61%0.12%1.55%-0.10%-1.49% -2.19%-1.03%0.76%3.38%-0.20%-0.82%勝率30.00%30.00%80.00%30.00% 60.00%20.00% 66.67% 50.00% 40.00% 80.00%80.00%80.00%60.00% 50.00% 60.00%30.00%50.00% 70.00

19、%40.00%50.00%全球主要股指過去十年春節(jié)后五個(gè)交易日表現(xiàn)備注：考慮到2020年受疫情影響的特殊性，因此樣本中不含2020年數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Bloomberg Wind 華泰期貨研究院20101.12%1.07%-0.08%0.93%4.95%-0.44%0.98%2.24%2.51%2.69%4.12%3.05%1.78%0.34%0.06%1.68%1.66%1.71%1.94%20113.58%6.00%-4.63%4.56%5.16%3.76%5.34%-2.22%1.55%1.93%1.56%1.33%0.93%3.00%4.60%-2.97%-2.48%3.76%1.40%-2.

20、30%20120.49%-0.31%6.10%0.08%2.03%-0.16%5.21%4.66%1.11%4.27%2.24%3.01%3.20%5.66%0.75%1.15%3.22%0.27%5.17%8.63%2013-4.86%-6.25%0.52%-6.32%-1.67%-7.78%1.91%-3.08%0.05%-1.00%-0.15%1.15%1.56%0.13%2.09%3.49%-1.86%0.94%-0.86%-2.46%20143.21%3.76%0.06%3.50%4.61%3.43%-0.73%1.20%1.13%2.85%1.99%1.85%3.18%2.38%-

21、3.15%-0.73%0.59%2.31%-1.49%0.05%20150.50%-1.64%0.80%-0.41%3.51%-1.98%3.56%1.32%0.86%1.65%0.35%-0.13%2.42%3.53%4.60%2.04%-0.33%1.29%1.57%2.51%20163.49%5.05%3.25%2.96%5.57%1.87%5.44%2.34%1.15%3.24%2.01%1.75%0.53%1.10%-5.07%-0.08%-0.01%-0.47%-3.69%0.01%20170.76%1.30%1.51%0.25%1.73%-0.39%1.48%-1.85%0.36

22、%1.06%0.49%0.95%-0.84%-1.74%-2.55%-0.85%0.65%-0.12%2.24%-0.04%20181.88%3.80%3.78%1.43%4.67%0.24%6.49%2.17%0.55%1.81%0.56%0.25%3.01%0.78%4.32%0.23%1.08%2.99%0.08%3.26%20192.45%5.75%1.33%2.81%4.85%0.71%6.81%-0.34%3.27%2.87%2.55%3.08%2.67%1.07%0.54%-0.33%-0.11%3.47%-1.81%-2.78%勝率90.00%70.00%80.00%80.00

23、%90.00%50.00%88.89% 60.00%100.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%70.00%50.00%50.00%80 %60.00%60.00%期間漲跌上證指數(shù)深證成指幅臺(tái)灣加權(quán) 指數(shù)滬深300中證500上證50國(guó)內(nèi)主要股指在過去十年春節(jié)后的五個(gè)交易日內(nèi)上漲概率較大，做多勝率普遍在70%以上；美國(guó)、歐洲、日本、中國(guó)臺(tái)灣省股市 均大概率上漲。巴西創(chuàng)業(yè) IBOVE 道瓊斯工業(yè) 納斯達(dá)英國(guó)富時(shí)法國(guó)板指SPA指指數(shù)克指數(shù)100CAC40數(shù)標(biāo)普500德國(guó)DAX日經(jīng)韓國(guó)綜合恒生225指數(shù)指數(shù)澳洲印度 標(biāo) 普 SENSE200X30俄羅斯RTS全球主要股指過

24、去十年春節(jié)后二十個(gè)交易日表現(xiàn)備注：考慮到2020年受疫情影響的特殊性，因此樣本中不含2020年數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：Bloomberg Wind 華泰期貨研究院20101.64%0.39%6.13%1.31%5.61%1.15%#DIV/0!4.52%6.37%8.74%7.85%9.87%9.07%8.76%7.26%5.80%5.44%6.80%8.83%13.26%20117.18%9.61%-4.35%8.45%11.56%7.88%5.06%0.24%1.45%0.53%1.09%0.28%-1.39%-0.27%2.44%-3.65%0.97%1.18%2.32%6.03%20125.20%6

25、.95%10.03%5.75%13.31%2.91%17.93%5.83%2.06%6.35%3.83%3.61%4.38%7.18%10.05%3.59%6.45%1.58%7.08%15.08%2013-6.33%-8.91%0.26%-8.36%-3.81%-9.85%3.75%-2.78%3.72%1.73%2.82%3.60%5.33%5.11%12.62%1.82%-2.94%3.00%-0.29%-3.30%20141.30%-2.91%2.97%-1.31%3.79%-1.21%-2.24%-0.32%3.62%5.55%4.62%3.82%5.67%1.81%0.85%1.7

26、8%3.03%4.97%4.95%-11.83%201513.69%9.24%2.12%12.80%19.20%9.75%24.48%1.72%-0.20%1.95%-0.42%1.76%7.03%10.19%9.60%4.07%-1.55%1.89%-3.34%-1.60%20161.69%-3.21%7.98%1.84%-2.74%5.26%-7.73%22.29%6.22%8.83%7.56%4.99%6.95%5.87%0.71%2.80%4.73%3.82%0.41%16.49%20172.24%3.14%2.58%1.39%3.39%-0.39%1.81%-0.51%4.49%3.

27、64%3.71%3.08%1.98%1.78%0.84%0.91%1.51%1.85%4.08%-5.48%20182.56%5.26%5.66%2.37%6.51%0.78%11.12%1.72%-0.85%2.82%0.49%-2.43%1.44%-0.24%1.07%2.61%2.95%1.87%-2.99%2.03%201913.43%21.86%3.12%12.63%22.16%7.44%30.14%-2.55%1.54%1.99%1.35%1.20%4.22%2.48%1.14%-3.00%1.07%5.82%0.55%-2.61%勝率90.00%70.00%90.00%80.00

28、%80.00%70.00%77.78%60.00%80.00%100.00%90.00%90.00%90.00%80.00%100.00%80.00%80.00%100.00%70.00%50.00%跌幅指數(shù)期間漲 上證指數(shù) 深證成指 臺(tái)灣加權(quán) 滬深300 中證500上證巴西PA指數(shù)50 創(chuàng)業(yè)板指 IBOVES 工業(yè)指數(shù)500道瓊斯 納斯達(dá)克 標(biāo)普英國(guó)富時(shí)法國(guó)指數(shù)100CAC40德國(guó)DAX 日經(jīng)225韓國(guó)綜合 恒生指數(shù) 澳洲標(biāo)普 指數(shù)200印度 SENSEX 30俄羅斯RTS國(guó)內(nèi)主要股指在過去十年春節(jié)后的二十個(gè)交易日內(nèi)上漲概率較大，勝率同樣普遍在70%以上；除巴西和俄羅斯外，海外股市同樣 大面積飄紅。春節(jié)期間重大事件提示及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析日期國(guó)家數(shù)據(jù)日期國(guó)家數(shù)據(jù)2月10日歐盟歐洲央行行長(zhǎng)拉加德參加經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人研討會(huì)2月15日日本第四季度GDP(初值):同比(%)2月11日美國(guó)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾發(fā)言2月16日歐盟2月歐元區(qū):ZEW經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣指數(shù)2月12日美國(guó)2月密歇根大學(xué)消費(fèi)者現(xiàn)狀指數(shù)2月17日英國(guó)1月CPI:同比(%)2月12日美國(guó)2月密歇根大學(xué)消費(fèi)者預(yù)期指數(shù)2月17日美國(guó)1月PPI:最終需求:同比:季調(diào)(%)2月12日美國(guó)美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室將公布最新的十年預(yù)算報(bào)告2月17日美國(guó)1月零售和食品服