東盟通訊與媒體：四家電信公司結(jié)果更新

1、February 24, 2019 08:14 PM GMTASEAN Telecoms and Media | Asia PacificFour Telco Result UpdatesIndonesia mobiles continue to show signs of improvement, which in our view will allow EXCL to raise prices. Singapore telcos remains tough with deteriorating mobile metrics at Singtel and Starhub ahead of a

2、 competitor launch. Malaysia remains low growth with expensive valuations.Indonesia (EXCL, OW): We have seen multiple price rises from TLKM and ISAT in the mobile market, however limited changes from EXCL. EXCL stated on its 4Q18 conference call that a key reason for the lack of price rises has been

3、 due to Smartfren (no. 5 mobile player) being aggressive in the market. However, EXCL also stated that Smartfren (not covered) seems to be less aggressive in the market now and we believe this will allow EXCL to raise prices in 1H19.Smartfrens CEO, Merza Fachys, has also stated its current data pack

4、ages are still in promotion period, but he said there was a possibility it would adjust prices in future (Kontan, February 20, 2019). We would play this improving competitive landscape through TLKM and EXCL (both Overweight, PTs unchanged).Singapore (Singtel, EW and Starhub, UW): Singtel and Starhub

5、 reported 3QFY19 and 4Q18 results last week, which continued to show the mobile market remains tough in SG. Both operators saw mobile service revenue decelerate with mobile revenue down 6% y/y at Singtel in SG and down 15% at Starhub. This is due to increased competition ahead of TPG launch and the

6、aggressive growth of new lower priced MVNOs. Growth in SIM-only plans is also having a negative impact on revenues. This contributed to lower FY19 core EBITDA guidance at Singtel, which was stable but is now guided for a low single digit decline. Starhub cut its 2019 dividend by 44% from 16c to 9c p

7、er share. We continue to expect competition to rise in Singapore. We forecast Starhubs dividend to remain under pressure falling 12% in 2020 and maintain our Underweight but cut our PT by 9% to S$1.45. We see Singtel maintaining its FY19/20 dividend at 17.5c per share, and a FY19 5.8% dividend limit

8、s downside at Singtel, hence remain Equal-weight but cut our PT by 5% to S$3.15.Malaysia (Maxis, UW): Five mobile operators in Malaysia means the level of competition remains high resulting in Maxis delivering only +0.6% y/y mobile service revenue growth in 4Q18. This lack of growth has seen Maxis c

9、hange its strategy to become an integrated telco in 2019 and beyond, rather than focus as a mobile-only operator. This, combined with continuing low growth in mobile, saw Maxis deliver 2019e EBITDA guidance of mid single digit declines, which implies consensus EBITDA is 5% too high. We maintain our

10、Underweight on Maxis due to a lack of EPS growth and an expensive valuation. Our PT is cut 8% to RM4.50.MORGAN STANLEY ASIA (SINGAPORE) PTE.+Mark Goodridge, CFAEQUITY ANALYST HYPERLINK mailto:Mark.Goodridge Mark.Goodridge+65 6834-6251Da Wei LeeRESEARCH ASSOCIATE HYPERLINK mailto:Dawei.Lee Dawei.Lee+

11、65 6834-6510Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2019 Institutional Investor All-Asia Research Team Survey. HYPERLINK /ranking-assistance Request your ballot. ASEAN Telecoms and MediaAsia PacificIndustryViewIn-LineWHATS CHANGED? FROM:TO:Singapore Telecom (STEL.SI)Price TargetS$3.30S$3.15 S

12、tarHub (STAR.SI) Price TargetS$1.60S$1.45 Maxis Berhad (MXSC.KL) Price TargetRM4.90RM4.50Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectiv

13、ity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S.

14、 affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.Key TablesExhibit 1: Summary table of 4Q18 re

15、sultsCompany4Q18 vs ConsensusKey Highlights / GuidanceRatingSingTelMissKey numbers: Rev was up 1% y/y at S$4,626m, 1.4% above cons. EBITDA (ex-associates) fell 11% y/y to S$1,190m. Assoc profit fell 33% y/y to S$371m. Underlying NPAT fell 28% y/y to S$679m, below cons est by 9%.Lowered guidance: EBI

16、TDA to decline low single digit (vs stable), ICT rev to increase by low single digits (vs mid), Amobee EBITDA to be slightly negative due to Videology.EWStarHubMissKey numbers: 4Q18 rev fell 10% y/y, to S$619.5m, missing consensus by 2%. EBITDA fell 22% y/y, to S$111m, and missed consensus by 11%. N

17、PAT fell 70% y/y, to S$15.4m, and underlying NPAT was S$42mn (vs consensus S$41mn).Guidance for 2019: Expects service rev to be stable to a decline of 2% y/y. Expects service EBITDA margin to be 26-28% (before SFRS16). Expects capex to be 11-12% of total revenue. Targets quarterly DPS of 2.25c or to

18、tal of 9c for FY19 (vs MS est of 12c), and payout 80% earnings.UWXL AxiataMissKey numbers: 4Q18 revenue +1% y/y to Rp6tn, inline withconsensus. EBITDA +11% y/y to Rp2.4tn, but beat consensus by 1%. NPAT loss of Rp3.2tn was due to one-off accelerated depreciation due to lower 2G traffic. Excluding th

19、is one-off, normalized net profit= Rp 58bn.Guidance for 2019: revenue growth inline or better than market, high 30% EBITDA margin, Rp7.5tn capexOWMaxisMissKey numbers: 4Q18 Rev RM2.4bn, +3% y/y, beat consensus 7%. EBITDA RM769m, -26% y/y, 26% below consensus. NPAT RM266m, - 51% y/y, impacted by one-

20、off expenses of Rm250mn.Guidance for 2019: Low single digit decline in service rev, mid single digit decline in EBITDA, base capex of RM1bn and growth capex ofRM1bn over 3yrs, OCF in line with 2018UWSource: Company Data, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 2: Adjustments to FY19-21 EPS and target pricesF

21、Y19eOldFY20eFY21eFY19eNewFY20eFY21eFY19eEPS changesFY20eFY21eTarget PriceOldNewSingTel19.521.924.118.720.021.8-4.2%-8.7%-9.4%S$3.30S$3.15StarHub092.1%-2.4%-7.9%S$1.60S$1.45XL Axiata86.5170.6202.138.7117.3168.3-55.3%-31.3%-16.7%Rp3,000Rp3,000Maxis23.523.424.020.619.519.9-12.4%-1

22、7.0%-17.3%RM4.90RM4.50Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates; Maxis numbers are EPS adjusted, differ from MW metricsOrder of PreferenceExhibit 3: Order of Preference TableMW Ticker TH TickerAISADVANC.BK ADVANC.BKDTACDTAC.BK DTAC.BKSarana Menara Nusantara TOWR.JKTOWR.JKLink NetLINK.J

23、K LINK.JKTelkom IndonesiaTLKM.JK TLKM.JKXL AxiataEXCL.JK EXCL.JKAxiataAXIA.KL AXIA.KLNetLink NBN TrustNETL.SI NETL.SIGlobeGLO.PS GLO.PSIntouchINTUCH.BK INTUCH.BKIndosatISAT.JK ISAT.JKM1 LimitedMONE.SI MONE.SITelekom MalaysiaTLMM.KL TLMM.KLTower BersamaTBIG.JK TBIG.JKSingapore TelecomSTEL.SI STEL.SID

24、igiDSOM.KL DSOM.KLMaxisMXSC.KL MXSC.KLTRUETRUE.BK TRUE.BKPLDTTEL.PS TEL.PSStarHubSTAR.SI STAR.SI Stock ratingOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWEWEWEWEWEWEWUWUWUWUWUWMarket Cap (USD mn)Daily Trading Volume (USD mn) Current price (in local currency)17,02731.21783,6579.9482,9441.08109370.34,32027,31526.03,8702,0183.22

25、,6509,5985.34.302,3072.70.804,8452.11,8905,62312.954.501,3981.63,610.001,4292.92.062,8575.63.091,4340.64,440.0036,97241.73.068,9924.54.7010,9062.55.75,74417.25.354,4961.91,080.002,0633.31.61Target Price225508305,9004,2003,0004.300.902,200502,2502.062.504,2003.153.804.504.901,0001.45% Upside(Downside

26、)26%4%2%37%9%13%0%12%16%-8%-38%0%-19%-5%3%-19%-21%-8%-7%-10%P/E 18e17.9xNM16.4x11.6x20.0 x30.2x35.7x42.2x13.6x14.4xNM15.8x17.0 x18.3x16.4x23.1x24.9xNM11.1x13.6xP/E 19e16.5x17.7x15.7x10.2x17.4x68.5x30.9x36.4x13.0 x13.6xNM20.8x20.0 x15.4x15.3x24.5x27.5xNM12.7x15.6xEV/EBITDA 18e9.1x5.3x8.8x6.2x6.4x4.3x

27、6.4x11.4x6.2x10.1x4.3x7.7x4.9x9.7x8.8x12.4x12.7x8.2x5.1x6.6xEV/EBITDA 19e8.5x6.7x9.2x5.5x6.0 x4.5x6.1x11.0 x6.0 x11.5x5.2x8.6x5.6x9.7x8.7x13.0 x13.6x8.2x4.9x6.9xDividend Yield 18e4.0%0.0%4.3%4.3%3.8%0.0%2.2%6.0%5.5%5.0%0.0%5.0%3.2%3.8%5.7%4.2%3.5%0.0%6.0%9.9%Dividend Yield 19e4.1%0.0%4.5%4.9%4.3%0.4

28、%2.6%6.1%5.4%5.0%0.0%3.3%2.7%4.5%5.7%4.1%3.5%0.0%5.4%5.6%CAGR 2017-20eRevenues6%0%8%11%5%5%3%2%5%-12%-4%-5%-1%10%1%1%-1%7%3%-2%EBITDA6%-3%7%11%3%9%3%2%9%3%-9%-4%-3%11%-1%2%-6%8%2%-4%EPS8%46%12%11%3%NM11%15%9%1%NM-13%-18%30%0%1%-12%NM-11%-15%DPS6%12%20%11%3%NM20%4%7%6%-100%-16%-26%14%-11%2%0%NM-9%-23

29、%MS vs ConsensusEBITDA 18e0%4%-1%0%1%0%-2%21%-1%-1%-6%-3%0%3%-4%2%-5%-4%-3%-2%EBITDA 19e1%-5%-4%2%-1%-1%-1%5%-4%4%-2%-3%-1%6%-4%-1%-4%-1%-2%-4%EPS 18e-2%0%7%-1%-2%213%2%27%3%-2%NM-9%18%19%0%4%-10%-98%-6%-6%EPS 19e1%0%-2%-2%-3%-54%-6%18%1%4%NM-18%-1%22%7%-4%-6%-132%-16%-8%Source: Company Data, Morgan

30、 Stanley Research estimates, Thomson Reuters; Priced as at February 22, 2019Singapore Telecom Investment ThesisWe maintain our Equal-weight rating and cut our price target to S$3.15 (was S$3.30): Singtel is facing a new fourth entrant in Singapore as well as weakness inIndia with Bharti. We cut our

31、2019-21 EPS by -4% to -9% to reflect Singtels lower EBITDA guidance and we also incorporate consensus forecasts for Bharti into ourExhibit 4: The market is capturing the competitive risk in Singapore from TPG by applying a small discount vs. its long-term historical averageEV/EBITDA Multiple10model.

32、 New entrants, combined with increasing leverage, are likely to shift Singtels9focus toward debt repayment and away from boosting its dividends. We have now8seen this play out with Singtels dividend guidance being flat for the next two years.765We see little risk to Singtels dividend in FY19/20 henc

33、e a 5.8% dividend remainsattractive and limits further downside in the stock price. We prefer Thailand and4Singtel (ex-associates)Long Term Average EV/EBITDA = 6.7x+1 sd-1 sdIndonesian telcos for Asian emerging market exposure and Hong Kong for Asian developed market exposure.Investors watching pote

34、ntial competition from TPG carefully and now the market is applying a 6x 2020e EV/EBITDA multiple, vs. its long-term average ofMay-08 Aug-09 Nov-10 Feb-12 May-13 Aug-14 Nov-15 Feb-17 May-18 Aug-19Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Exhibit 5: We see no growth in Singtels dividend

35、 for the next two years20c6.7x: Singapore is 25% of Singtels value, and mobile accounts for 30% of Singapores revenue. Hence, Singtel is now only facing a competitive risk to 8% of its valuation, vs. previously 23% when TPG (covered by Andrew Mcleod) was going to launch as a 4th mobile player in Aus

36、tralia, although it still plans to launch in Singapore this year. We and the market now apply an implied 6.2x 2020e EV/EBITDA multiple to these two businesses. We think this 7% discount captures this competitive risk.18c 16c 14c 12c 10c 8c 6c 4c 2c cNo growth expected in Singtels dividend for FY19/2

37、0: We believe Singtels balance sheet leverage has risen as a result of: 1) spectrum payments (Australia and Singapore); 2) acquisitions (Turn in February 2017, Airtel Africa October 2018); 3) Optuss network expansion into regional areas; and 4) future spectrum auctions in Australia. This has seen Si

38、ngtel allocate its FCF to paying down debt, which means it is guiding for a flat dividend of 17.5c per share for the next two years. Our S$3.15 price target implies a FY19e dividend yield of 5.8%, which is a premium to its long- term average (2006-18) of 4.7%. We note that our bull case of S$3.85 ca

39、ptures Singtel increasing its dividends at 4% CAGR FY18-20, where we assume competition is less intense than expected.Singtels valuation now reflects its declining ROIC profile. Singtels FY19e P/E is20182019e2020eSource: Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates.Exhibit 6: Singtels ROIC is lower than gl

40、obal peers yet trades at a slight premium on PE multiples 15.2x 15.1x5.8%10%4.8%7.4%P/E (FY19)ROIC (FY19)Dividend Yield (FY19) (ex- Special Div)15.2x vs. its 12-year average of 16.6x. We think this reflects our declining ROICforecast for Singtel, with 2019e ROIC falling to 7.4% from 10.9% in 2017. T

41、his 7.7% 2019e ROIC is below that of global telcos average at 10%.Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (“Morgan Stanley”) is acting as financial advisor to Vodafone Group Plc and Vodafone International Holdings B.V. (together “Vodafone”) in relation to the proposed merger of Vodafone India Limited

42、s shareholding in Indus Towers Limited into Bharti Infratel Limited, as announced on 25 April 2018.Vodafone may pay fees to Morgan Stanley for its financial services. Please refer to the notes at the end of the report.SingtelGlobal TelcosSource: Thomson Reuters, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates

43、.Risk-Reward: Singapore Telecom (STEL.SI, EW, PT S$3.15)Competition looms, with fourth entrant in Singapore but priced inWhy Equal-weightFourth entrant in Singapore limits longer- term group EBITDA growth, although valuation reflects risk.Diversified asset portfolio across developed and emerging mar

44、kets helps to soften the earnings risk from new entrant in Singapore.While a lack of dividend growth is a concern, a 5.8% FY19e dividend yield reflects the above risks.Key Value DriversSource: Thomson Reuters, Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Price TargetS$3.15Base case scenario, using the average

45、of three methodologies: P/E, EV/EBITDA-based SOTP, and DCF.BullS$3.8517x bull case F20e EPS of S$0.24Incumbent Singtel continues to dominate market share in local and regional markets through its associates:This leads to wireless and fixed-line EBITDA margin expansion five points above our base case

46、 expectations. Associates earnings growth with stable FX puts Singtel in a favorable position, with exposure to rapidly expanding ASEAN telco markets. Revenue share lost to the fourth telco is smaller than expected in Singapore. This allows Singtel to grows its dividend at 4% FY18-20.BaseS$3.1516x b

47、ase case F20e EPS of S$0.20Near-term headwinds driven by intense competition in key markets following a fourth entrant in Singapore: Singtel (Singapore) loses share, driven by a new fourth entrant in the market. We remain positive on strength from associate Telkomsel, but associate dividend growth s

48、lows through 2019-21. Flat dividends from FY18-20 in view of the need to delever.BearS$2.80 x bear case F20e EPS of S$0.18De-rating, as fourth entrant expands and dividend is cut: Intense competition in Singapore and Australia leads to value destruction through data price cuts. A stronger domestic c

49、urrency reduces associates SGD earnings, resulting in a three-point reduction in EBITDA margins versus our base case expectations.Capex/sales ratio ticks up, and Singtel multiples fall one point, and dividends fall 4% p.a. through 2020, based on a 15% cut in 2019.Singapore mobile revenue market shar

50、e (a+1ppt change in market share yields a +0.4% change in F2019 EPS, we estimate).Australia mobile revenue market share (a+1ppt change in market share yields a +2.1% change in F2019 EPS, we estimate).Regional FX rates (a +1% appreciation in blended regional associates FX rates yields a+0.5% change i

51、n F2019 EPS, we estimate).Capex/sales ratio (a +1% change in F2019 capex yields a -3.9% change in 2019 FCF, we estimate).Risks to Achieving Price TargetUpside:Fourth entrant in the Singapore mobile market takes longer than expected to build a network.Mobile ARPU growth, driven by strong data monetiz

52、ation amid rational pricing.DownsideData monetization trends in Indonesia deteriorate impacting dividends from associate Telkomsel.Expected spectrum auctions in Australia in FY20 result in higher-than-expected prices, affecting FCF and dividends.Financial SummaryExhibit 7: Singtel Financial SummaryY

53、ear Ending March 312018 2019e 2020e 2021e Year Ending March 312018 2019e 2020e 2021e Income StatementBalance Sheet S$ mn S$ mnMobile communications5,7375,6475,5375,338Cash525465142584Data and Internet3,4363,4933,5843,630Short term investments23232323Managed services (ICT)2,4472,5242,7072,883Trade an

54、d other debtors5,0355,1225,1655,185National telephone1,0841,000928862Inventories398354357361Sale of equipment2,4152,4372,3762,354Other Current Assets-Business solutions (ICT)561572583595Total Current Assets5,9815,9635,6886,153International telephone-Pay television369343322303Intangibles2,8792,7282,5

55、742,420Digital Businesses1,1131,2611,3901,531Net PP&E11,80112,22212,71812,765Fibre rollout & maintenance-Associated Companies2,0062,1422,1422,142Others106288288288JV companies12,78312,70112,78413,125Group Operating Revenue17,26817,56517,71517,783LT Investments198198198198Deferred tax assets360360360

56、360Selling and administrative2,4803,2083,3433,424Other non-current assets1,1561,1561,1561,156Traffic expenses1,6161,4851,4071,376Total Non-Current Assets42,27342,59743,02343,256Staff costs2,7402,7532,8352,927Total Assets48,25448,56048,71149,409Cost of sales5,2405,0375,0225,012Repair and maintenance3

57、68391394397Trade and other creditors5,2344,9504,9995,051Others33333333Current Income tax351351351351Group Operating Expenses12,47612,90613,03413,168Borrowings2,7082,7082,7082,708Total Current Liabilities8,2938,0098,0588,110EBIT5,2624,4024,6825,057Group EBIT Margin30%25%26%28%Borrowings8,6079,0078,70

58、78,107Group EBITDA5,0514,9795,0014,935Deferred income tax520520520520Group EBITDA Margin29%28%28%28%Deferred Gain358358358358Other Income259320320320Other Non-Current Liabilities822822822822Share of Associates PBT2,4611,6921,9822,436Total Non-Current Liabilities10,30710,70710,4079,807Net Finance Exp

59、ense345269269253Total Liabilities18,60018,71618,46517,917PBT4,9174,1334,4134,803Taxation1,3441,1041,1711,262Share Capital4,1274,1274,1274,127Profit after tax3,5733,0293,2413,542Share Premium-Minority interests(21)(20)(20)(20)Retained Earnings25,55225,74226,14427,390Exceptional items (post-tax)1,880-

60、Other reserves(51)(51)(51)(51)Net Income1,7153,0493,2613,562Minority Interest26262626Group Net Margin10%17%18%20%Shareholders Equity29,65429,84430,24631,492EPS (S$ Cents)10.518.720.021.8Liabilities and shareholders equity48,25448,56048,71149,409DPS (S$ Cents)17.517.517.514.2Special Dividend (S$ Cent