氣候變化對(duì)中國(guó)近海漁業(yè)資源的影響-Science Technology

1、氣候變化對(duì)中國(guó)近海漁業(yè)資源的影響Potential impacts of regional climate change on China fishery resourcesChen, Xue-zhong陳雪忠Director, East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fisheries Sciences 中國(guó)水產(chǎn)科學(xué)研究院東海水產(chǎn)研究所2021. 6Contents of this talk 概要1 引言 Introduction2 中國(guó)海洋氣候變化對(duì)漁業(yè)資源影響的研究與進(jìn)展 To review the p

2、otential impact of climate change on the fish & fisheries of China Seas. 3 研究中存在的問(wèn)題及研究趨勢(shì) Challenges & Prospective4 建議合作方向 Proposed cooperation？1 引言 Introduction海洋生物物種組成和地理分布格局變化明顯，近海海洋生態(tài)災(zāi)害頻發(fā)，漁業(yè)生物資源嚴(yán)重衰退等主要由全球氣候變化引發(fā)的生態(tài)問(wèn)題日益凸現(xiàn)。Ecological problems mainly caused by global climate change became apparent, i

3、ncluding significantly changed species composition and of geographical distribution patterns of marine organisms, frequently happened coastal ecological disasters and severe recession of fishery resources. 中國(guó)政府對(duì)全球氣候變化問(wèn)題高度重視，先后開(kāi)展相關(guān)研究方案。 2000年以來(lái)的受國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金與全球變化相關(guān)的工程154項(xiàng)，其中重點(diǎn)和重大工程43項(xiàng)，其它工程111項(xiàng)，合計(jì)經(jīng)費(fèi)6894萬(wàn)元

4、，與海洋相關(guān)的20項(xiàng)。 2000年以來(lái)受科技部資助的與氣候變化有關(guān)的973工程80余項(xiàng)，與海洋相關(guān)的近20項(xiàng)，僅2021年中國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)全球變化973工程公示預(yù)算達(dá)3.7億，其中支持與海洋相關(guān)的工程6項(xiàng)。The Chinese Government attaches great importance to global climate change: National Science Foundation has launched a major research project - and its regional response to global change, the Ministry o

5、f Science and Technology launched 973 Basic Research Program, and other related research projects. Since 2000, 154 projects related to global climate change were funded by nation science foundation, including 43 key and major projects, and more than 20 projects were marine lelated. Since 2000, more

6、than 80 projected related to climate change were funded by 973 Basic Research Program, nearly 20 ocean-related. In 2021, Chinese government budgeted 3.7 hundred million to fund 973 projects related to global climated change, including 6 projects marine ralated. 1 引言 Introduction2 中國(guó)海洋氣候變化對(duì)漁業(yè)資源影響研究與進(jìn)

7、展2 Impacts of climate change on the fish & fisheries of China Seas從1985年起，東海海表水溫升高達(dá)1.5 oC The East China Sea has experienced a dramatic 1.5 oC warming since 1985.2.1 SST change in the East China Sea 2.1 近海表層水溫變暖趨勢(shì) 受以全球氣候變化為主導(dǎo)因素的多重壓力脅迫的影響，近50多年來(lái)，中國(guó)近海生態(tài)系統(tǒng)發(fā)生了很大的變化。海洋生態(tài)災(zāi)害發(fā)生的頻率與種類不斷增加，除有害赤潮外，水母災(zāi)害也非常嚴(yán)重。進(jìn)一

8、步加劇了中國(guó)的海洋漁業(yè)資源衰退。 The factors, which caused the coastal ecosystem unstable, is complicated. However, global climate change was one of the factors mainly responsible for unstable ecosystem . During the last five decades, Chinese coastal ecosystem has experienced a regime shift under the multiple stres

9、ses. The increasing frequency of ecological disasters including harmful algae blooms and jellyfish outburst have been observed. These have made the recession of fishery resources in China seas intensified .2.2 對(duì)漁業(yè)環(huán)境的影響2.2 Effects on fish habitat長(zhǎng)江口主要漁場(chǎng)Red tide frequently occurred area東海赤潮分布形勢(shì)東海洋流圖Ci

10、rculation in the East China Sea研究區(qū)域：東海及其主要漁場(chǎng)East China Sea and fishing ground長(zhǎng)江口漁場(chǎng)Changjiang Estuary fishery ground舟山漁場(chǎng)Zhoushan fishery ground2.3 對(duì)東海浮游動(dòng)物的影響2.3 Effects on zooplanktonic community structure溫水種和暖溫種 (如太平洋磷蝦Euphausia pacifica 和中華哲水蚤Calanus sinicus)豐度減少; Abundances of temperate & warm tem

11、perate species, such as Euphausia pacifica, Calanus sinicus have decreased;暖水種的數(shù)量等豐度增加; Abundances of warm water species have increased;總生物量顯著降低。 Total biomass and abundances of zooplankton have decreased.案例1 對(duì)太平洋磷蝦的影響case 1 effects on Euphausia pacifica Table Yearto-year variation in abundance of E

12、uphausia pacifica in spring of northern East China Sea年份Year日期data站位數(shù)stations平均表溫ST平均底溫BT最大豐度MA豐度 Abundance 出現(xiàn)率OF% 19595.11-152817.3216.7814.00 1.91 55.561974May917.3416.987.83 1.64 77.7820024/25-5/22719.53 19.08 4.51 0.36 25.93 20035/1-5/112318.9518.15 0.30 0.02 13.04 20045/8-6/33718.3417.420.69 0.

13、045.41 20054/27-5/183718.9017.240.00 0.00 0.00 20065/13-6/33717.8216.790.38 0.01 2.70 20075/20-5/2820 18.9317.250.00 0.00 0.00 North retreat of its distribution and decrease in abundance.note: ST, surface temperature; BT, bottom temperature; A: average abundance (individuals/m3)案例2 對(duì)中華哲水蚤的影響case 2 e

14、ffects on Calanus sinicus中華哲水蚤是中國(guó)近海的主要優(yōu)勢(shì)種。在全球變暖的背景下，春季高豐度維持時(shí)間大幅縮短，最高豐度從1959年時(shí)的6月提前至2005年時(shí)的5月，這代表了廣溫性暖溫種對(duì)全球變暖響應(yīng)的重要特征。Calanus sinicus was the predominant zooplankton in East China Sea. Its abundance decreased greatly because of sea warming, particular in spring. The ending of maximum abundance of the

15、sp. is earlier (in May) than used to be (in June), which expected to be have negative effects on the larvae and juvenile of some commercially important species. 2.4 對(duì)魚類回游路線的影響2.4 Effects on fish migration在厄爾尼諾發(fā)生年份，黑潮暖流勢(shì)力增強(qiáng)，冬季加劇了黑潮對(duì)東海大陸架的入侵，導(dǎo)致帶魚越冬場(chǎng)向東海近海移動(dòng)。When El Nino occurred, the Kuroshio Current w

16、ould be strengthened, which made the over wintering ground of hairtail inhabiting in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea swift to the offshore of East China Sea.Longitude Latitude SST黑潮入侵陸架Kuroshio intrusionhairtail厄爾尼諾 2000年冬季El Nino， winter of 2000春冬秋夏橈足類是小黃魚稚幼魚的主要餌料 。 5-6月，小黃魚稚幼魚群體與中華哲水蚤高豐度區(qū)域重疊.中華哲

17、水蚤分布Distribution pattern of Calanus sinicus圖例 越冬洄游 產(chǎn)卵洄游 越冬場(chǎng) 產(chǎn)卵場(chǎng) 索餌場(chǎng) 東、黃、渤海小黃魚的洄游路線Migration routes of the small yellow croaker in the Bohai, Yellow, East China Seas 2.4 春夏之交浮餌料游動(dòng)物數(shù)量變化對(duì)小黃魚漁場(chǎng)的潛在威脅 2.4 Effects on fish migration小黃魚逐月分布圖 monthly distribution of small yellow croaker 春spring然而，魚類種群變動(dòng)機(jī)制非常復(fù)雜

18、。經(jīng)歷了上世紀(jì)60年代對(duì)小黃魚(Pseudosciaena polyactis )滅絕性捕撈后，70年代小黃魚產(chǎn)量下降明顯。隨后在70年代，在國(guó)家有力的保護(hù)措施下，該魚種資源量逐漸恢復(fù)。在資源恢復(fù)過(guò)程中，受全球變暖影響明顯的東海種群和黃海南部種群資源恢復(fù)很快，但在北方寒冷水域的種群，例如渤海種群、日本海種群等資源量恢復(fù)不明顯。在東、黃海，現(xiàn)有小黃魚的資源量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)50年代。已經(jīng)成為繼帶魚之后，東黃海產(chǎn)量第二大的經(jīng)濟(jì)品種。有關(guān)小黃魚種群恢復(fù)機(jī)制正在研究中。The dynamics of small yellow croaker stocks are complicated. In the 198

19、0s, overfishing led to depletion of the small yellow croaker stock in the East China Sea. To protect the fishery resource, China government has then practiced summer fishing moratorium system in the East China Sea annually. An evident increased was observed in the catches of small yellow croaker in

20、East China Sea. In the meanwhile, the small yellow croaker stocks in Bohai Sea and East Sea (Sea of Japan) have not recovered. In the East China and Yellow Sea, the stocks of small yellow croaker increased significantly, even higher than in the 1950s. Studies on he recovery mechanisms of the species

21、 is in process. 2.4 對(duì)魚類回游路線的影響2.4 Effects on fish migration Annual variations of small yellow croaker catch in China, Japan and KoreaCatch / thousands tonesYearChinaJapan Korea2001-2021年中國(guó)近海捕撈產(chǎn)量(萬(wàn)噸) Catches of fisheries from the China seas (unit: 10 thousands tons)2.4 對(duì)魚類回游路線的影響2.4 Effects on fish m

22、igration3 研究中存在的問(wèn)題及研究趨勢(shì) 3 Challenges & Prospective魚類生活史復(fù)雜，多具有回游習(xí)性。 Life histories of fish was complicated, most of them are migrated species.大范圍、逐月的漁業(yè)資源調(diào)查資料不易獲得 Monthly data on large scale of fish and fishery is difficult to obtained. 其他因素，尤其是捕撈對(duì)魚類產(chǎn)生的影響難以剔除； Effects of fishing on the fish and fisher

23、ies is not easy to excluded.3 存在的問(wèn)題及研究趨勢(shì) Challenges & Prospective1全球變暖和環(huán)流時(shí)空演變特征 分析我國(guó)近海水動(dòng)力環(huán)境對(duì)EL Nino事件和北太平洋振蕩PDO的響應(yīng)。 2全球變暖在形成主要漁場(chǎng)中作用和地位 進(jìn)一步分析全球變暖對(duì)魚類餌料生物關(guān)鍵數(shù)量、魚類洄游、集群等的影響。3近海全球變暖對(duì)漁場(chǎng)變遷影響的評(píng)估 評(píng)估近海環(huán)境變暖對(duì)漁場(chǎng)、漁期變動(dòng)、餌料數(shù)量和漁業(yè)資源變化的影響。4東黃海漁情預(yù)報(bào)工作 結(jié)合全球變暖趨勢(shì)，開(kāi)展東、黃海漁情中期預(yù)報(bào)。Effects of global warming on temporal and spatial

24、 evolutions of ocean circulation Analyzing the influence of EL Nino and PDO on hydrodynamic environment of China seas. impacts of global warming in forming the fishing grounds Analyzing the effects of global warming on the abundance of key food organisms of fishery species, migratory pattern and agg

25、regate behavior of specified species.Assessment of influence of global warming on fishing grounds Analyze how the fishery species and their food organisms in fishing grounds respond to the variation of ocean currents. Forecast work of fishing condition in the Yellow and East China Seas Making medium

26、-range forecasting of fishing condition by forecasting model.3 存在的問(wèn)題及研究趨勢(shì) Challenges & Prospective 4 建議雙方合作的課題 proposed cooperation1全球大洋性主要捕撈魚類資源對(duì)全球氣候變化的響應(yīng) 基于全球大洋性主要捕撈魚類資源的時(shí)空分布模式以及進(jìn)行資源重心變化的時(shí)空分析，分析海溫、葉綠素、海流等環(huán)境因子進(jìn)行主要變化模態(tài)，研究大型食魚性魚類與氣候環(huán)境因子的時(shí)間序列變化，分析魚類資源變化的生態(tài)特征，分析研究生態(tài)特征變化驅(qū)動(dòng)因子，并在此根底上解析主要魚類對(duì)全球氣候變化的響應(yīng)方式、過(guò)程和

27、機(jī)制。1 Effects of global climate change on oceanic commercially important species Spatial-temporal distribution patterns of oceanic commercially important species；Ecological characteristics of fish habitat in Pacific Ocean; Key ecological factors that regulate the changes in fishing ground; Different

28、mechanisms of these oceanic species Response to global climate change. 4 建議雙方合作的課題 proposed cooperation2太平洋磷蝦的種群變動(dòng)機(jī)制及其對(duì)全球變暖的響應(yīng) 太平洋磷蝦主要分布在太平洋東、西沿海，是魚類重要餌料生物。在太平洋西部東海分布區(qū)南界正向北移動(dòng)。在氣候變暖環(huán)境下，太平洋磷蝦地理分布的向北飄移對(duì)漁場(chǎng)餌料根底有重要的影響，建議就此主題分別在東、西太平洋兩岸開(kāi)展合作研究。2Population dynamics of Euphausia pacifica , and its response mechanisms to global climate change (in theory). Euphausia pacifica was widely distribution in the coastal areas of the Pacific. The species was import food for some fishes. For the impact of climate change, the sp. has north retreat of East China Sea. The potential effect of the changes in geog