美國(guó)軟件業(yè)：Q4盈利指南

1、COREU.S. SoftwareThe Q4 Earnings GuideStrongQ4ResultsShouldDrivePositiveSoftwareEarningsSeason:Spending remainedhealthyinQ4andweexpectapositiveyear-endbudgetflushtodriveresultsINDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. Software POSITIVE UnchangedEquityResearch17 January2019abovestreetexpectations.TheoutlookinourVARsurvey(

2、seebelow)moderated somewhat,butwedonotethatmanyofournamesshowveryconservativeestimates fortheirnextFYandwilllikelyraiseguidance.Lookingatthispositivebackdrop,while consideringthecurrentnervousnessaroundenddemand,weshouldseeapositive sharepricereactionforthemajorityofstocksinourspaceandwouldseekexpos

3、ureto thesoftwaresegmentaroundtheQ4earningsseason.VARSurveyBetterResultsandSTOutlook,SomeModerationforLT:Oursurvey (see HYPERLINK /RSL/jsp/popupContainer.jsp?pageTitle=Barclays%20Live&logoUrl=%2FRSR_S%2Fhtml%2Fbcllogo.html%3Fdc%3D1547699167825&targetUrl=%2FRSL%2Fjsp%2Fbclwait.jsp%3F%2FBC%2FS%2Fsearc

4、h%2FUA%3FT%3D%252FRSL%252Fservlets%252Fdv.xslProcessor%253FdocviewID%253D2359575%26amp%3BDR%3DS%26amp%3BV%3DEXTERNAL%26amp%3BS%3Ddecember%2BVAR%2Bsurvey%26amp%3B%26amp%3BF%3D1%26amp%3BP%3D1 DecemberVARSurvey,1/12/19)suggestshealthyQ4softwarespending,butthe longer-termoutlookseemstobesomewhatdivergin

5、g.Lookingatindividualcompany results,wenotethatMSFTwasthemostbullish,CTXSshowedamoderationfromthe pastfewpositivequarters,andSYMCwasmixedanddispersed.Lastly,wesawpositive expectationsfornextquarter,butthelong-termspendingoutlookresponsesdiverged.FavorNamesWithLargeEstimateDiscrepanciesLikeFive9orApp

6、ian:Five9hasrevenuegrowthacceleratetothe30%levelduetopositivemixeffect(moreenterprise exposure),butQ4andFY19consensusisonlylookingataround20%growth,which seemsoverlyconservative.Similarly,consensusforAppianislookingforonly15% revenue growth in FY19 despite high-twenties growth this year and improvin

7、g underlyingmomentum.MSFT,DATADeserveSpecialAttention: WefieldedmanycallsonMSFTinthepast fewdaysduetothedelayedearningsdateannouncement.However,VARdatapoints remainupbeatandhence,solidresultscouldtriggerapositivereaction.DATAresults arestillsomewhat“messy”duetothemovetothe606accountingstandardafterQ

8、4. Weseethisasanopportunityforshareholdersthathavedonedeeperwork(seetodays HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2432057 Tableau Software: Positive Side of Transition Emerging; 606 Model Update).Insecurity,welikeRPD,CYBR,andVRNSintoearnings;highcallvolumeonSYMC. WelikeRPDintoearningsbeca

9、usewethinktheARRstrengthinprioryearscouldmean betterFY19revenueguidance.WelikeCYBRbecauseofcompetitordisruptiongiving confidencein20%revenuegrowthinFY19expecttheusualunder-promiseonFY19 EPS.WelikeVRNSbecausewethinkthismarketcangrow20%,inFY19,andthestock istradingatdiscounttoothersmid-capsecurity.SYM

10、Chasbeenahighcallvolume nameourVARsurveywasmixed,butwethinktheprobabilityofacapitaleventis higherwithfilingsup-to-date.Indesign,welikePTC;inVerticalSaaS,wethinkstreetisslightlyhighonELLI.We likePTCintothisprintbecauseitwillbethefirsttruequarterwithanintegratedgo-to- marketwithRockwellinouropinion,an

11、dthemacroquestionstillremainsadebate. TechinvestorswanttobuyELLIs3Qmiss,butwethinkstreetisslightlyhighonFY19 revenueweareatlowsingledigitgrowth.Forafulllistofourratings,pricetargetand earningschangesinthisreport,pleasesee tableonpage2.U.S. SoftwareRaimo Lenschow, CFA+1 212 526 2712 HYPERLINK mailto:

12、raimo.lenschow raimo.lenschow BCI, USSaket Kalia,CFA+12125268465 HYPERLINK mailto:saket.kalia saket.kalia BCI, USPree Gadey+1 212 526 3156 HYPERLINK mailto:pree.gadey pree.gadey BCI, USDavid Rainville+1 212 526 9318 HYPERLINK mailto:david.rainville david.rainville BCI, USMohit Gogia+1 212 526 1053 H

13、YPERLINK mailto:mohit.gogia mohit.gogia BCI, USDavid Fisher+1 212 526 7126 HYPERLINK mailto:david.fisher david.fisher BCI, USAndrewThomas+12125268081 HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.w.thomas andrew.w.thomas BCI, USMichaelMaguire+1 212526-8682 HYPERLINK mailto:michael.maguire michael.maguire BCI, USCapitalIn

14、c.oneofdoesandseekstodoinitsresearchAsabeawarethatthe mayhaveaofthattheofconsiderthisasonlyafactorinmakingtheirPLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 51.Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)C

15、ompanyRatingOld NewPrice15-Jan-19OldPriceNew%ChgEOldPSFY1NewE)%ChgEOldPSFY2NewE)%ChgU.S. SoftwarePosPos HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=APPN Appian Corporation (APPN)EWEW31.0529.0031.007-0.55-0.55-0.33-0.33- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=AVYA Avaya Holdings Corp (AVYA)EWEW15.

16、6720.0020.00-3.413.29-43.423.42- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=CSOD Cornerstone OnDemand Inc. (CSOD)UWUW53.1348.0048.00-0.810.75-71.201.20- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=MSFT Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)OWOW105.01121.00121.00-4.334.3914.985.011 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY

17、?ticker=NOW ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW)OWOW188.35235.00235.00-2.332.33-3.093.05-1 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=SWI SolarWinds Corporation (SWI)EWEW15.9716.0017.0060.580.58-0.760.76- HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=VRNS Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS)EWEW52.2274.0061.00-180.120.12-0.

18、430.43-Source:BarclaysResearch.SharepricesandtargetpricesareshownintheprimarylistingcurrencyandEPSestimatesareshowninthereportingcurrency. FY1(E):CurrentfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.FY2(E):NextfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.StockRating:OW:Overweight;EW:EqualWeight;UW:Underweight;RS:R

19、atingSuspended IndustryView:Pos:Positive;Neu:Neutral;Neg:NegativeCONTENTS HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 EARNINGSCALENDAR5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 VALUATIONANDPRICEPERFORMANCE6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 ANSYS,INC.(UW/POS,PT$171)8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 APPIAN (EW/POS,PT$31)9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 AVAYA (EW/POS

20、,PT$20)10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 CARBONITE (EW/POS,PT$38)11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 CERIDIAN (EW/POS,PT$36)12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 CHECKPOINTSOFTWARETECHNOLOGIES(EW/POS,PT$120)13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 CITRIX (EW/POS,PT$116)14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 CORNERSTONE (UW/POS,PT$48)15 HYPERLINK l _bookmar

21、k10 CYBERARK (EW/POS,PT$89)16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 ELLIEMAE(EW/POS,PT$66)17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 FIREEYE (EW/POS,PT$20)18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 FIVE9 (EW/POS,PT$46)19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 FORTINET (EW/POS,PT$90)20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 LOGMEIN (OW/POS,PT$113)21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 M

22、ICROSOFT (OW/POS,PT$121)22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 MIMECASTLTD.(OW/POS,PT$44)24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 MOBILEIRON (UW/POS,PT$5)25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 NUANCE (OW/POS,PT$20)26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 PAYCOM (EW/POS,PT$151)27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 PLURALSIGHT (OW/POS,PT$34)28 HYPERLINK l _bookma

23、rk22 PTC (OW/POS,PT$114)29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 RAPID7 (OW/POS,PT$41)30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 SERVICENOW (OW/POS,PT$235)31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 SOLARWINDS (OW/POS,PT$17)32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 SYMANTEC (EW/POS,PT$23)33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 TABLEAU (OW/POS,PT$137)34 HYPERLINK l _bookmar

24、k28 TALEND (OW/POS,PT$70)36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 TERADATA (UW/POS,PT$34)37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 VARONISSYTEMS,INC.(EW/POS,PT$61)39EARNINGS CALENDARFIGURE 1Q4 2018 Earnings CalendarMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFriday21-Jan22-Jan23-JanCTXS Earnings PTC Earnings24-Jan25-Jan28-Jan29-JanSAP Earnin

25、gs30-JanNOW Earnings CHKP Earnings31-JanSYMC Earnings1-Feb4-Feb5-FebDATA Earnings PAYC Earnings6-FebFTNT Earnings FEYE Earnings7-FebRPD Earnings8-Feb11-Feb MIMEEarningsVRNSEarnings12-Feb CSOD Earnings13-FebPS Earnings14-Feb TLNDEarningsCYBREarnings15-Feb18-Feb19-Feb20-Feb21-Feb APPN Earnings22-FebSo

26、urce: Refinitiv, Barclays ResearchVALUATION AND PRICE PERFORMANCEFIGURE 2Valuation TableCategoryCompanyRatingCurrentpricePricetargetMarketCapUSD ($,mn)2019EP/E2020E2019EEV/Sales2020E2019EEV/FCF2020ELarge capIntuitEW209.9922357,21830.5x26.4x8.2x7.4x26.3x22.6xMicrosoftOW105.38121818,38122.4x19.6x5.8x5

27、.3x19.5x17.2xOracleEW48.0655183,44513.5x12.6x4.8x4.7x11.5x10.6xSAPOW102.25125122,39318.1x16.4x4.1x3.8x25.7x23.6xEnterpise SaaSAnaplanOW28.73304,106nmnm12.6x9.9xnmnmAppianEW31.02312,142nmnm7.7x6.5xnmnmCeridianEW36.87365,41177.4x44.6x7.1x6.2x81.7x55.5xCoupaEW68.83714,760nmnm14.3x11.7xnm89.2xCornerston

28、eUW53.44483,43144.5x33.8x5.9x5.1x38.5x29.4xFive9EW45.82462,97569.8x45.1x9.5x8.0 xnm57.2xLogMeInOW87.391134,67214.9x13.3x3.8x3.5x11.8x10.8xPaycomEW131.381517,71539.9x31.3x10.9x8.8x38.7x30.3xSalesforceOW148.54172117,70654.0 x44.6x7.3x6.2x35.5x29.0 xServiceNowOW189.5923537,03962.1x44.4x10.7x8.4x37.1x28

29、.5xWorkdayEW165.3415039,576nm81.2x11.2x9.1x95.3x82.1xBig DataElasticOW72.43856,452nmnm19.6x15.2xnmnmMongoDBOW74.051084,752nmnm12.9x9.7xnmnmSplunkOW116.7913618,62774.5x55.4x8.3x6.8x48.1x37.4xTableauOW117.8813710,82976.5x49.4x7.1x5.9x53.1x31.2xTalendOW39.01701,196nmnm4.5x3.8xnmnmTeradataUW42.86345,261

30、27.2x19.2x2.3x2.2x22.3x20.9xInfrastructureAvayaEW15.68201,7774.7x4.5x1.3x1.3x9.8x8.9xCitrixEW107.0511614,80517.7x15.8x4.7x4.4x14.9x13.8xMobileIronUW4.575540nm62.8x2.1x1.9x19.5x13.3xPivotalEW16.80234,915nmnm5.4x4.4xnmnmRed HatOW175.3316632,12745.3x39.2x8.0 x6.9x27.3x23.2xSolarWindsEW16.20175,18721.5x

31、18.4x7.3x6.5x16.7x14.6xVMwareOW144.2016861,39121.6x19.3x6.4x5.8x17.1x15.5xVertical SaaS*CarboniteOW28.07381,02315.7x13.9x2.5x2.4x12.1x9.7x*Ellie MaeEW68.94662,47036.2x36.8x4.7x4.5x41.5x30.4x*NuanceOW15.20204,47013.0 xnm3.2xnm15.9xnm*PluralsightOW28.15343,693nmnm12.2x9.3xnm59.7xDesign tools*AdobeOW24

32、1.95304119,79430.5x23.9x10.7x9.1x26.7x22.2x*AnsysUW157.1317113,52027.6x25.4x9.3x8.6x25.3x22.9x*AutodeskOW135.3016629,98243.6x29.6x9.5x7.6x23.6x21.5x*PTCOW87.4211410,45445.4x30.7x7.9x6.8x32.7x22.1xSecurity*Palo AltoOW201.3026319,92934.6x29.4x5.5x4.7x15.4x12.9x*CyberArkEW77.22892,89436.3x30.6x6.5x5.6x

33、22.8x21.0 x*FireEyeEW16.10203,214nm58.2x3.4x3.2x42.9x34.5x*FortinetEW72.349012,71033.7x28.5x5.4x4.8x17.6x14.0 x*Check PointEW104.4312016,61017.2x15.9x6.2x5.9x11.3x10.8x*Rapid7OW35.59411,670nm90.1x5.1x4.2xnm30.5x*SecureWorksUW16.40151,326nmnm2.2xnm29.0 xnm*SymantecEW19.742312,96911.9xnm3.2xnm10.8xnm*

34、ZscalerEW44.15425,909nmnm19.3x14.9xnmnm*MimecastOW33.26442,08878.9x45.6x5.1x4.3x42.5x31.7x*VaronisEW50.34611,637nm62.6x5.1x4.2x44.7x32.7xSource: Barclays Research, Refinitiv. Stock prices as of January 16, 2019CoveredbyUSSoftwareAnalystSaketKaliaBarclays|U.S.Barclays|U.S.SoftwareFIGURE 3YTD Price Pe

35、rformance20%17January2019715%10%5%0%(5)%(10)%(15)%Source:Refinitiv,Priceas15%10%5%0%(5)%(10)%(15)%Source:Refinitiv,PriceasofPreviousDaysMarketCloseAnsys EllieMae Avaya LogMeIn Ceridian PaloServiceNowOracle Talend Autodesk VMwareS&P500CyberArk Microsoft Workday CheckPointRedHat MobileIronMimecast ANS

36、YS, INC. (UW/POS, PT $171)Street Expecting 10% Revenue Growth in FY19; Reminder We Transition Fully to ASC 606Bothweandthestreetareonthesamepageintermsofexpecting10%revenuegrowth nextyearonthebackofsimilarYTDorganicconstantcurrencyACVgrowthandbullish expectationsonDiscoveryLive.Itiswortharemindertha

37、tFY19willfullyadoptASC606, puttingallofconsensusonthesameaccountingstandard,andpotentiallydrivingmore quarter-to-quartervolatilityinrevenueandmargins.Astrongleasequarterwillleadtheoutperformanceonthetopandbottomlinein 4Q.Wemodelrevenue/EPSof$362M/$1.47tothemidpointofASC606guidanceand thinkthiscouldb

38、ebeatablewithastrongleasequarter.Onthe3Qcallweheard commentaryaboutastrongpipelineandthatmulti-yearleasedealsinlargeraccounts areheavilyskewedto4Q.Onabeat,wethinkmarginswillalsobenefitasmuchofthe revenuewillflowtothebottomlinemaskinghighersalescommissionsandincreased hiring.Morequalitativecommentary

39、onDiscoveryLivewillbeimportant.Thebullsonthis namerightfullypointtoDiscoveryLiveandhowitcanhelpdemocratizesimulationand expandANSSsshareintoabroaderTAM.PTCwillbebroadlyofferingDiscoveryLiveto itsCreoCADbaseintheMarchquarter(ANSSF1Q,andPTCsF2Q),sowedonot expectanyfinancialimpactfromDiscoveryLivebutwe

40、thinkanythingqualitativewill behelpfultoreinforcethebullcaseonthenewproduct.Street is on the same page about 10% revenue growth next year; but worth rememberingwewilltransitionfullytoASC606.Bothweandtherestoftheare onthesamepagefornextyear,expectingabout10%revenuegrowthonthebackof similarYTDorganicc

41、onstantcurrencyACVgrowth.ButitisworthareminderthatFY19 willfullyadoptASC606(nomoreASC605comparisons)whichhastwoconsiderations:1)Leasewillberecognizedasbothlicenseandmaintenanceina50/50splitwiththe licenseportionrecognizedupfrontandmaintenancerecognizedratably;2)thiscould resultinmorequarter-to-quart

42、ervolatilitybecausethereareperiodsofstronger business/seasonality/renewalforlease.ThegoodthingiswewillhaveFY18fory/y comparability,butstillthefulltransitiontoASC606isworthareminder.FIGURE 4Barclays Research vs. Consensus estimates Ansys$, mBarclaysConsensusDifferenceBarclaysConsensusDifference4Q184Q

43、181Q191Q19License166.4117.9Maintenance & Services193.1195.9Deferred Revenue Add-Back2.50.0Total Revenue362.0364.8(1)%313.8315.3(0)%Gross profit, non-GAAP328.0325.41%280.7282.3(1)% margin90.6%89.2%89.4%89.5%Operating Profit, adjusted159.3161.8(2)%141.3141.9(0)% margin44.0%44.3%45.0%45.0%Net income, a

44、djusted126.7128.2(1)%111.9112.2(0)%EPS, adjusted$1.47$1.49(1)%$1.30$1.31(0)%Source: Barclays Research, RefinitivAPPIAN (EW/POS, PT $31)Conservative Setup, Expecting FY19 Guidance Above Street ExpectationsWewouldexpectAppiantodeliverabeatacrosstheboardinQ4basedonanachievable sequentialsetup.Moreimpor

45、tantly,focuswillbeonFY19guidanceandwenotethatStreet consensusforFY19revenuegrowthstandsat15%vs.FY18Eguidanceof26%atthe midpoint.Whilewerecognizetheexpecteddecelerationinprofessionalservicesgoing forward,webelievethecurrentStreetexpectationsseemconservativeandwouldexpect managementsinitialFY19guidanc

46、etobeaboveconsensusexpectations.Wecontinueto believethatthecurrentvaluation(6.5xCY19ESales)remainsfairrelativetothegrowth prospects(midtohigh-teens)andhighermixofprofessionalservices(44%oftotalrevenue forFY18E).WearerevisingourestimatesforsubscriptionrevenueslightlythroughFY20, whichleadstoournewPTo

47、f$31(was$29)basedonourSOTPvaluation.ToughComps,butAchievableSequentialSetup:Appianwillseesomewhattough comps this quarter with subscription and total revenue growth of 42% and50% respectively last year (highest for FY18). However, the sequential setup seems achievablewithourq/qestimatesof7%subscript

48、ionrevenuegrowthand2%total revenuegrowth(vs.12%and8%historicalaverage,respectively).Also,despitethe meaningfulbillingsoutperformanceinQ3,wewouldexpectbetterthanexpected billingsgrowth(Streetandourexpectationsof11%)thisquarterbasedonthelarge deltabetweenourq/qestimate(17%)andhistoricalaverage(49%).De

49、clining Margins Due to Growth Investments: We model operating margins to declineto-18%(vs.-9.7%lastyear).Thisisdrivenbythegrowthinvestmentsthe companyhasdiscussedinsalescapacityandR&DthroughFY18.However,weexpect someupsidevs.expectationsbasedonthecompanystrackrecord.SOTPValuationLeadstoour$31PT:Give

50、nthecompanyshighermixofprofessional servicesvs.subscriptionrevenue,weuseasumofthepartsanalysisasourvaluation methodology.Wemodelthesubscriptionbusinesstosustainhigh20stolow30s revenuegrowththroughFY20,anduse8xCY20revenueforsubscriptionbusiness.We use4xCY20revenueforservicesbusiness,whichleadstoourPT

51、of$31.FIGURE 5Barclays Research vs. Consensus Estimates Appian$, mnBarclaysConsensusDifferenceBarclaysConsensusDifference4Q184Q181Q191Q19Billings75.275.5(0)%55.656.5(2)%Software and Subscriptions31.631.50%33.633.60%Support1.51.51%1.31.4(7)%Professional Services22.822.70%27.224.113%Total Revenue55.95

52、5.80%62.258.96%Gross profit, non-GAAP35.936.0(0)%38.837.92% margin64.3%64.5%62.5%64.4%Operating profit, adjusted(10.0)(9.8)nm(6.4)(7.5)nm% margin(18.0)%(17.6)%(10.3)%(12.7)%Net income, adjusted(10.2)(10.0)nm(6.1)(7.4)nmEPS, adjusted(0.16)(0.16)nm(0.09)(0.12)nmAVAYA (EW/POS, PT $20)IncreasedDetailPro

53、vided;EyesTurnTowardsExecutionAtitsInvestorDayinDecember,Avayaprovidedincreaseddetailintoitspathtowardstop- linegrowthin2019.Now,ourfocuswillbeontheexecutiononthispathtogrowth,asthe companycontinuestobuildatrackrecordofconsistencyinearnings.Weexpect1Q earningstoberelativelyin-linewithconsensus,butwi

54、llbewatchingforcloudrevenue growthratesandfurthercommentaryontheintegrationofSpoken.Afterpositivegrowthin on-premlicensesinFY18,wewilllookingtoseeifthatgrowthcanbemaintainedinFY19. Finally,wefeelmovingpartsinoperatingexpenseswillresultinminimaloperatingmargin expansion.Withthelong-termtargetsprovide

55、dduringtheInvestorDayandincreasedcolor ontherevenuebreakdownbetweencloudandon-prem,weareupdatingourmodelfor Avaya.Weremaininwait-and-seemodeatthistime,andreiterateourEqualWeightrating andPTof$20.SpokenandtheCloud:Managementhasindicatedthatthemajorityofcloudgrowthin 2019willbecomingthroughpubliccloud

56、,drivenbytheacquisitionofSpoken CommunicationsinJanuary.WithSpoken,thecompanynowhasanunderlyingcloud platformandaclearermigrationpathforcustomerstopubliccloud.For1Q,weagain willbefocusingoncommentarysurroundingtheintegrationprocessofSpokenwith existingapplications.CloudistheprimarygrowthleverforAvay

57、a,sothisguidancewill beessentialtounderstandingthecompanyspathtopositivegrowthafteryearsof revenuedeclines.Weexpecttotalcloudgrowthof15%y/yforthequarter.ContinuedExecutioninOn-PremLicenses:Whilethecompanyhasemphasizedits focusonthecloud,italsohasseenareturntogrowthinon-premlicenses.For1Q,we expecton

58、-premProductRevenue,(lessCloudandInnovation)togrow1.6%,primarily drivenbythislicensegrowthasthecompanycontinuestomoveawayfromhardware revenue.R&D Increase Cancels Out SG&A Improvements: During the 4Q earnings call, managementindicatedastep-upinR&Dto$225mninFY19.However,thisshouldbe offsetbyadecrease

59、inSG&Afromon-timecostsrelatedtotherestructuringand companyacquisitions.Therefore,weanticipateminimaloperatingmarginexpansionin 1Q19.FIGURE 6Barclays Research vs. Consensus Estimates Avaya$, mnBarclaysConsensusDifferenceBarclaysConsensusDifference1Q 191Q 192Q 192Q 19Total Revenue769.5763.31%758.9761.

60、1(0)%Gross profit, non-GAAP481.1476.31%469.3470.7(0)% margin62.5%62.4%61.8%61.9%EBITDA191.1191.3(0)%167.3183.3(9)% margin24.8%25.1%22.0%24.1%Net income, adjusted92.797.5(5)%74.992.6nmEPS, adjusted0.820.88(7)%0.660.83nmCARBONITE (EW/POS, PT $38)FY19 Upfront Drag Could BottomNotmanyinvestorsarepayinga