美股-股票策略-不確定時期的股票投資策略

1、Thematicbaskets:Stocksuncertain timesCredit Suisse (Hong Kong) LimitedManish Nigam+852 2101 7067 HYPERLINK mailto:manish.nigam manish.nigamcredit HYPERLINK mailto:manish.nigam - HYPERLINK mailto:manish.nigam Vaibhav Jain+852 2101 7061 HYPERLINK mailto:vaibhav.jain vaibhav.jaincredit HYPERLINK mailto

2、:vaibhav.jain - HYPERLINK mailto:vaibhav.jain January 2019DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suissedoes and seeks to do business with companies covered

3、 in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm mayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactor in making their investment decision.uncertaintiesLowmacrovisibilitycloudingthemarketoutlook:Whilemar

4、ketshavereboundedYTD, uncertainties remain high. This raises the risk that markets remain volatile over the coming months. In our the primary concern for equity market investors relates to growth: The sharp downtick in Chinese growth in 2H18, decelerating US growth (fading tailwinds from taxbreaksan

5、drisingrates)and,continuinguncertaintyaboutthetradedispute.A hybrid approach: In this note, we use a hybrid approach (top-down screens combined withbottom-upinputs)toidentifyabasketofstocksthatwebelieveiswellsuitedtoperform amid current uncertain times. first narrow our initial list of 1,300 stocks

6、down to 100 based on ROE (over 10%) and EPS growth (two-year CAGR of 10-15%+) and then further whittle it down based on analyst inputs (on macro and valuations).CSanalystsinputsonfiveparameters:Our analysts specifically provide their scores for the shortlisted companies on the following parameters:

7、(1) sensitivity to US economic growth; (2) China economic growth; (3) exposure to the US-China tariff dispute; (4) fundamental strength of the companies business; and (5) valuations relative toapplyafiltertoo:Inadditiontousinganalystsinputs,wealsoapplyaminimum Credit Suisse CFROI threshold to arrive

8、 at our final list of 33 stocks. This final basket of stocks scores highly on quality and momentumscorecard, too.Top-down screening to narrow down to 100 names from 1,300 stocksStep1:Marketcapandliquidityfilterstoarriveatfirstshortlistof500+stocks:Out of a total coverage universe of 1,300 stocks acr

9、oss Asia Pacific, we select stocks with market cap of US$5 bn+, and 6M ADTV of US$5 mn+. In the case of ASEAN companies, we relax the criteria to include companies with slightly lower market cap andStep 2: RoE and EPS CAGR filters help us reduce the list to 100 stocks:From this list, we select compa

10、nies which offer a healthy EPS CAGR of 15%+ over 2018-20E and at least an ROE of 10%. For some countries, we relax the criteria slightly as those countries (or representative sectors) are either in a mature growth phase, or are going through a cyclical weak phase. This exercise provides us with a li

11、st of 100 stocks.diversified list of stocks: In this list of 100 stocks, 25% of stocks are from China/HongKong,followedby20%fromIndiaand10%eachfromJapanandThailand. Intermsofsectorcomposition,25%ofstocksarefromthefinancialsfollowedby 17% from 16% from consumer staples and another 13% from consumer d

12、iscretionary. asked CS analysts to rate these 100 stocks on various macro, fundamentals and valuation parameters (see next slide).Analyst inputs and HOLT threshold yielded our final basketStep 3: Analyst inputs: asked our analysts to score the companies on the below parameters and then shortlisted c

13、ompanies with a score of 18+ (out of a maximum of 25).#1: US revenue contribution: CS analysts provided scores from 5 (best placed) to 1 (most impacted) based on sensitivity to the US market. For example, a score of 5 implies 0-10% revenue exposure to US; a score of 1 implies 70-100% contribution.#2

14、: Chinese economic growth: For non-China/HK stocks, an exposure of 70-100% to China revenues led to a score of 1, while 0-10% revenue exposure earned a score of5.InthecaseofChinesestocks,analystsprovidedtheirjudgementonsensitivitytoChineseeconomicgrowth(ratherthancontributionofChinarevenues).#3: US-

15、China trade dispute: Companies exposed to the tariff dispute (for example, tech exports) scored low while those, which would not be impacted, scored#4:Fundamentalstrengthofthebusiness:Companies/sectorswhicharestructural growthstories(earlygrowthstage;strongeconomicmoat)scoredhighwhilethosewith weak

16、sector dynamics (high competition, low entry barriers, etc.) scored #5:relativetohistory:Stockstradingatasignificantpremiumtohistoricalvaluations scored while those which have corrected sharply scored Step4:threshold:wechosestocksthatsportedatleasta10%CSCFROI for FY1 (or at least 8% CFROI, if the tw

17、o-year EPS CAGR was over 15%) and arrived at our final basket of 30 stocks.Valuation tableNameTickerCountrySectorCurr.Mkt6Mcap US$mnPrice (LC) TP (LC)UpsideRat2018-20EP/E 2019P/E 2020P/B 2019P/B 2020 20192020RoE 2019DY 2019HOLT CFROIFY1ANZ BankingANZ.AXAustraliaFinancialsAUD54113263015%O11.211.0NmNm

18、12.16.310.9CSL LtdCSL.AXAustraliaHealthcareAUD6513419923015%O17.028.620.217.834.91.614.9James HardieJHX.AXAustraliaMaterialsAUD527152138%O9.8Kw eichow Moutai600519.SSChinaCons. StaplesCNY12742768085025%O16.021.714.312.429.62.326.5Haitian Flavouring603288.SSChinaCons. StaplesCNY2941738212%O

19、20.837.131.424.732.71.626.6China Resources0291.HKChinaCons. StaplesHKD1132284045%O23.823.413.112.415.00.78.2China Taiping0966.HKChinaFinancialsHKD1029202838%O20.00.9NmNm10.60.611.8Ping An2318.HKChinaFinancialsHKD168430728721%O2.01.8NmNm19.53.516.8TAL EducationTAL.NChinaGlobal ServicesUSD1747313720%O

20、30.537.030.421.519.7-9.9Nari Technology600406.SSChinaIndustrialsCNY1325202423%O28.015.710.58.823.02.914.9ZTO ExpressZTO.NChinaIndustrialsUSD1311172543%O20.717.911.78.717.81.513.9Tencent Holdings0700.HKChinaTechHKD4171,09934441120%O29.629.422.27.05.422.918.023.6-22.4BaiduBIDU.OQChinaTechUSD5825316724

21、547%O18.716.015.111.313.6-15.7NetENTES.OQChinaTechUSD328924330425%O34.03.020.313.5China Gas0384.HKChinaUtilitiesHKD1628253953%O23.0ENN Energy2688.HKChinaUtilitiesHKD1129759021%O22.312.38.06.823.02.111.5Bosch Ltd.BOSH.BOIndiaCons. Disc.INR8618,53122,50021%O24.525.616.713.9Motherson SumiMOS

22、S.BOIndiaCons. Disc.INR71715120033%O25.816.71.08.8ITC LtdITC.BOIndiaCons. StaplesINR485227936029%O14.023.717.115.018.42.415.5Dabur IndiaDABU.BOIndiaCons. StaplesINR111943048012%O17.941.635.511.710.436.031.328.31.416.8HDFC BankHDBK.BOIndiaFinancialsINR80972,1102,50018%O22.122.0NmNm15.51.012.8Astra In

23、ternationalASII.JKIndonesiaCons. Disc.IDR24168,42510,80028%O14.6Nidec6594.TJapanTechJPY3512113,05519,50049%O15.82.812.210.8DBS GroupDBSM.SISingaporeFinancialsSGD4687243335%O1.21.1NmNm12.65.411.4ST EngineeringSTEG.SISingaporeMulti IndustrySGD8103.684.009%O4.64.312.411.4Cow ay021240.KSSouth

24、KoreaCons. Disc.KRW51480,30094,00017%O10.629.94.516.0LG Household051900.KSSouth KoreaCons. StaplesKRW17381,203,0001,370,00014%O12.422.313.512.618.91.017.2NCSOFT036570.KSSouth KoreaTechKRW937467,000580,00024%O48.424.92.814.6Largan Precision3008.TWTaiw anTechTWD161033,7404,30015%O1

25、2.418.416.34.03.411.519.4Advantech2395.TWTaiw anTechTWD5523127519%O18.121.015.413.823.33.315.6Thai BeverageTBEV.SIThailandCons. StaplesSGD14110.740.8414%O13.7C.P. ALLCPALL.BKThailandCons. StaplesTHB227177849%O15.77.617.916.430.02.118.4Muangthai CapitalMTC.BKThailandFinancialsTHB315476028%O

26、34.44.5NmNm31.70.831.0Analysts scores on five parameters and price performanceCompanyTickerCountrySectorMkt6McapCurr. US$mnAnalysts scores (5 implies best placed)Stock performance1M3MChinaTariffFund.Valn v/s Total grow th grow th disputestrength historyscoreANZ BankingANZ.AXAustraliaFinancialsAUD541

27、135533521.012.15.1(8.6)CSL LtdCSL.AXAustraliaHealthcareAUD651343544420.011.712.635.0James HardieJHX.AXAustraliaMaterialsAUD5272524518.03.4(19.8)(29.3)Kw eichow Moutai600519.SSChinaCons. StaplesCNY1274275455322.021.411.4(11.6)Haitian Flavouring603288.SSChinaCons. StaplesCNY29415444219.011.912.631.3Ch

28、ina Resources0291.HKChinaCons. StaplesHKD11325355220.02.0(0.7)(9.7)China Taiping0966.HKChinaFinancialsHKD10295253318.0(0.2)(19.3)(37.1)Ping An2318.HKChinaFinancialsHKD1684305254319.04.8(1.3)(19.7)TAL EducationTAL.NChinaGlobal ServicesUS015.09.7(8.8)Nari Technology600406.SSChinaIndustria

29、lsCN06.411.58.5ZTO ExpressZTO.NChinaIndustrialsUS0Tencent Holdings0700.HKChinaTechHKD4171,0995353420.010.732.2(24.9)BaiduBIDU.OQChinaTechUSD582535253318.02.5(11.4)(34.2)NetENTES.OQChinaTechUSD32895353420.0(0.4)20.6(26.4)China Gas0384.HKChinaUtilitiesHKD16285455322.0(7.3)4.5

30、6.9ENN Energy2688.HKChinaUtilitiesHKD11295454422.09.815.228.0Bosch Ltd.BOSH.BOIndiaCons. Disc.INR865552421.0(5.0)(0.3)(5.5)Motherson SumiMOSS.BOIndiaCons. Disc.INR7174543420.0(7.8)0.0(39.1)ITC LtdITC.BOIndiaCons. StaplesINR48525553321.00.9(0.5)(0.6)Dabur IndiaDABU.BOIndiaCons. StaplesINR11195553119.

31、0HDFC BankHDBK.BOIndiaFinancialsINR80975555323.0(1.2)6.76.3Astra InternationalASII.JKIndonesiaCons. Disc.IDR24165554423.03.713.5(3.4)Nidec6594.TJapanTechJPY351213345318.08.6(4.8)(27.6)DBS GroupDBSM.SISingaporeFinancialsSGD46875443.5521.54.04.8(8.0)ST EngineeringSTEG.SISingaporeMulti IndustrySGD81035

32、45421.0Cow ay021240.KSSouth KoreaCons. Disc.KRW5145553321.05.7(4.3)(17.8)LG Household051900.KSSouth KoreaCons. StaplesKR0NCSOFT036570.KSSouth KoreaTechKRW9375544422.0(1.4)14.09.8Largan Precision3008.TWTaiw anTechTWD1610343.544.53.519.519.716.5(1.3)Advantech2395.TWTaiw anTechTWD553435419

33、.010.012.1(1.9)Thai BeverageTBEV.SIThailandCons. StaplesSG027.618.4(20.4)C.P. ALLCPALL.BKThailandCons. StaplesTHB22715554423.012.021.2(3.4)Muangthai CapitalMTC.BKThailandFinancialsTHB3155554423.0(1.0)(4.5)17.9 ReviewCFROI is more than twice that of the marketCFROI well above cost of cap

34、ital: An aggregate view of the basket suggests that on a bottom-up basis, the analyst team has identified a group of companies with a CFROI well above that of the market and cost of capital. These companies have done so while also generating above-average asset growth.Aggregate CFROI Profile(Researc

35、hBasketnetassetweighted)Aggregate CFROI Profile(Asia Pacific ex Japan HOLT net asset weighted)Source: Credit Suisse HOLTFavourable profile on the HOLT ScorecardThe Scorecard uses three composite alphafactorstodiscerntheOperationalQuality of a firm, the market sentiment of its stock (Momentum),andthe

36、relativeattractivenessof the current stock price (Valuation).A comparison of the basket to the market suggests that on a bottoms up basis the research team has been able to identify stocks thatgenerallyhavefavourablecharacteristicson the Scorecard.ThecharttothelefthighlightsthatOperational Qualityan

37、dMomentumarewellaheadofthat of the market. While appears to be more expensive, this is generally the priceone pays for stocks with these strong fundamental characteristics.Portfolio: Research Basket equal weighted Benchmark: MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan weighted by market cap. This benchmark was chose

38、n given that only one Japanese name is included in basket. Source: Credit Suisse HOLTValuation premium over broader market has narrowed significantlyHOLT P/E (x)HOLT P/E premium (%)Note : HOLT P/E multiples are net asset weighted. Source: Credit Suisse HOLTThe chart on the left further compares the

39、P/E multiple of the basket to the broader market. With the sharp share price correction, P/E has fallen from 29.3x in Jan-2018 to 21.7x Relative to the broader market, the valuation premium of the basket now stands at 27%, narrower than its ten-year median of 34%and peak Jan-2018 premium of 52%, sug

40、gesting thatthegroupofcompaniesnowtradesmore cheaply than is typical.Quality at any price and eCAP companies are well represented in the basketeCAP eCAP eCAPeCAP eCAP eCAPClassifying the companies along our investment styles, one fifth of the companies are in Quality at any Price, which are companie

41、s with higher CFROI and stronger revisions compared to peers. These stocks typically also trade at a premium.alsonotethatalmostathirdof the portfolio consists of eCAP companies; these are companies that have the best track record of maintaining high and persistent economic returns over time.Across t

42、he database of over 20,000 companies, only around 6- 8% of our companies are as eCAP or Quality at anyPrice.Note: eCAP is a HOLT acronym for empirical competitive advantage period. To earn an eCAP award, a firm must generate CFROI equal to or above 8% for five years, have low CFROI volatility, and s

43、how low decay (or mean-reversion) in profitability. List is sorted in market cap order. Source: Credit Suisse HOLT.Basket names ranked by HOLT Overall Scorecard SCOREThe basket has above-average characteristics on the Scorecard which equally weights the three alpha factors. Those names that do score

44、 poorly generally have above- average Quality characteristics, but less support from or Momentum.6951NameCountrySectorAnalystQualityMomentumValuation ScorecardInvestment Style Ltd94963094At Any SouthKorea TechSoyun71995693Style An Zhou964664 93 Style 6951 Yan9580aySouth Korea Disc.A-Hyung807293Style

45、91Best Group LtdSingapore 57508088Style Ltd98744587Style AdvantechLtd. anTech96802886At Any Tech 76 29 91 85 Ashish 95 76 36 83 At Any Zhou 57 39 82 79 Style Ltd Arnab 74 69 51 78 Style Astra Disc. Andri Ngaserin 23 96 60 72 RestructuringALL Warayut98502570Style LtdAustraliaHealthcareGretel81852166A

46、t Any AtulSethi8996266At Any &603288.SS 89801765 At Any LG & Healthcare 051900.KS South Korea A-Hyung 81 46 44 64 Style ANZ Group ANZ.AX Australia Jarrod 35 60 57 52 Style Arnab 86 71 19 52 At Any Singapore Industry 69 62 16 43 At Any Bosch Ltd. Disc. 40 84 27 41 Style Tencent Tech 92 20 23 41 Trap

47、Industries Australia 96 21 30 40 Trap Motherson Systems Disc. 48 27 52 36 Style eichow Ltd 600519.SS 77 4 59 36 Express 85 25 26 36 Trap Largan an Tech 88 17 36 36 Trap TAL Group TAL.N Services 63 78 4 34 At Any 6594.T Tech Akinori 81 26 16 26 Trap Beverage 80 2 48 23 Style Tech 87 9 11 19 Trap Reso

48、urces 6 11 15 0 Worst 15byQualityScoreNameC.P. ALL PCLLtd 15byQualityScoreNameC.P. ALL PCLLtd AnAdvantech Co., Ltd. Nari Technology HDFC BankChina Gas Holdings Ltd Tencent HoldingsHaitian Flavouring & Food Muangthai Capital PCL Largan Precision NetEDabur IndiaZTO ExpressRICCountrySectorAnalystCPALL.

49、BK ThailandWarayut China Australia ChinaTaiw an600406.SS ChinaTech TechZhou Yan Ashish 603288.SS ChinaConsumer Staples Michael ShenZTO.Nan ChinaTechTechAtul Sethi Pauline ChenConsumer Staples Arnab MitraIvy Ji989896969695959492898988878685Momentum50742146808076962080961797125Valuation25 4530 64 28 5

50、136302317236111926HOLT Scorecard70 8740 9386 9383 9441 Investment Style Style Style Trap StyleAt Any StyleAt Any At Any TrapAt Any At Any TrapQuality Trap Quality At Any PriceQuality Trap66654115byMomentumScoreNameNCSOFTMuangthai Capital PCL China Gas Holdings Ltd Astra InternationalCSL Ltd Bosch Lt

51、d.Advantech Co., Ltd. Nari Technology& TAL Group Ltd ayDabur IndiaITC LtdRICCountrySector Analyst Soyun Atul Sethi Andri Gretel Gloria YanTAL.N 2688.HKUtilitiesAshish A-Hyung ChoQuality7189 9423 814096958963959880 8674MomentumValuation036570.KS South Korea Tech2395.TWAustralia Taiw anHealthcare Tech

52、Industrials969696858480808078767472716923060212728 5117436 6919 51HOLT Scorecard 9366 94 93Consumer Staples Michael Shen34021240.KS South Korea Consumer Disc.DABU.BO IndiaArnab Arnab 9152 78Investment StyleStyle At Any At Any Restructuring At Any StyleAt Any StyleAt Any At Any At Any StyleBest At An

53、y Style569987836586667215by15byScoreNameChina TaipingGroup Ltd ayCountrySector TechSingapore021240.KS South Korea Consumer Disc.Analyst Zhou A-Hyung ChoQualityMomentum 7629573957508072Valuation91828069 Scorecard85798891Investment Style Style StyleBest NCSOFTMotherson Systems LtdNari Technology Thai

54、BeverageENN Energy Holdings LtdLG Household & Healthcare036570.KS South Korea TechMOSS.BO IndiaDisc.Soyun ShinConsumer Staples Arnab Mitra Gloria YanConsumer Staples Nicholas Teh051900.KS South Korea Consumer Staples A-Hyung Cho 71 4874 95809881992769802744656525151484544 9336 9323 8764Style Style S

55、tyle Style Style StyleStyle78Ping An2318.HKChinaFinancialsCharles Zhou96466493Style NeutralAstra InternationalASII.JKIndonesiaConsumer Disc.Andri Ngaserin23966072RestructuringKw eichow Moutai Co., Ltd600519.SSChinaConsumer StaplesMichael Shen 7745936ContrarianANZ Banking GroupANZ.AXAustraliaFinancia

56、lsJarrod Martin35605752Style NeutralCompaniesAdvantechFactoring innewSRPsolutionRating:OUTPERFORM|NT$275(19%potentialupside)Analyst:Thompson INVESTMENT THESIS: We expect Advantech sales growth to accelerate in the next three years driven by Industrial IoT SRP solutions. Overall, we expect 2018-21 sa

57、les to accelerate to 13% CAGR from 7.5% in 2014-17 with OPM reaching a high of around 17% in 2020. OUR VIEW: SRP solutions are vertical-specific industrial IoT solutions designed to expedite project deployment and enhance data analytics. We expect SRP solutions to see accelerating sales growth as pr

58、oject deployment times are shortened and stronger-than-expected operating leverage through software licensing. CATALYSTS: Introduction of new vertical-specific Industrial IoT SRP solutions and adoption bycustomers. VALUATION: We came away more optimistic with newly launched SRP solutions after 2018

59、Advantechs IoT co-creation Summit in China. We model NT$275 on a 25x P/E multiple. Our multiple is slightly above the three-year average of 23x, reflecting accelerating growth.Comments on key parameters EXPOSURE TO MACRO GROWTH CONCERNS: 2018 Advantech sales growth of 10% YoY outpaced an overall 8%

60、YoY sales decline of Taiwan IPC industry, largely due to share gains and several IPC projects in North America and Europe. With Advantechs efforts on System Ready Packages (SRP) marrying its embedded platforms (computing, networking, gateways, edge devices)Note: Priced as of 25-Jan-2019. Source: Com