資源配置、資源錯(cuò)配與生產(chǎn)率課件

1、資源配置、資源錯(cuò)配與生產(chǎn)率中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析1資源配置、資源錯(cuò)配與生產(chǎn)率中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析1目錄資源配置與資源錯(cuò)配：一個(gè)研究前沿？資源配置的基本概念資源配置的基本原理資源配置和錯(cuò)配的實(shí)證分析可能的研究方向中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析2目錄資源配置與資源錯(cuò)配：一個(gè)研究前沿？中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析2資源配置：概念有哪些資源？勞動(dòng)力、資本（信貸、股權(quán)資本）、自然資源、知識(shí)（技術(shù)、技巧know how）、信息政府稅收、公共品、。資源稀缺性資源配置主體企業(yè)、農(nóng)民、消費(fèi)者、勞動(dòng)力（低技能、高技能勞動(dòng)力）、資本所有者、政府、第三方中介組織，。資源配置的范圍企業(yè)層面、地區(qū)層面、國(guó)家層面、國(guó)際層面靜態(tài)、動(dòng)態(tài)資源配置的機(jī)制3中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析資源配置：概念

2、有哪些資源？3中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析資源配置：基本原理計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)劃、共有產(chǎn)權(quán)、政府主導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)格、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、私有產(chǎn)權(quán)、市場(chǎng)協(xié)調(diào)、政府彌補(bǔ)市場(chǎng)失靈米塞斯與蘭格的爭(zhēng)論：自由市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)主義、市場(chǎng)社會(huì)主義的效率各種資源配置方式有效率的前提條件充分信息、充分理性、。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析4資源配置：基本原理計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析4資源配置和資源錯(cuò)配：實(shí)證分析資源再配置(Reallocation)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)改革和發(fā)展的實(shí)踐農(nóng)村改革市場(chǎng)化和國(guó)有企業(yè)改革資本市場(chǎng)、信貸市場(chǎng)與金融改革勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)人力資本深化：教育、醫(yī)療土地資源配置市場(chǎng)開放、生產(chǎn)要素地區(qū)間流動(dòng)、產(chǎn)業(yè)地區(qū)間分工和一體化政府職能轉(zhuǎn)變中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析5資源配置和資源錯(cuò)

3、配：實(shí)證分析資源再配置(Reallocati資源配置與生產(chǎn)率資源配置：生產(chǎn)函數(shù)中的投入、產(chǎn)出和全要素生產(chǎn)率新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中資源配置有效率的含義Individual production function Aggregate production functionKey assumption behind the construction of the aggregate production function is that all factor markets are perfectKey properties: ownership of factors does not matter giv

4、en that an aggregate production function exists and concavity中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析6資源配置與生產(chǎn)率資源配置：生產(chǎn)函數(shù)中的投入、產(chǎn)出和全要素生產(chǎn)資源配置與生產(chǎn)率: ConvergenceProduction functionconstant returns / concave / increasingAssumption: Capital markets are perfect, people borrow and lend as much as they want at the common going rate, r , the marg

5、inal returns to capital must be the same for everybody in the economyLogic of convergence: Poor countries should grow faster as they have higher return on the capital stock, however the reality is differentFailure of the convergence: Failure of the assumptions that underlie the construction of the a

6、ggregate productionSuggestion: Alternative approach to growth theory that abandons the aggregate production.中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析7資源配置與生產(chǎn)率: ConvergenceProductio資源錯(cuò)配: Physical capitalHigh interest rates in poor countriesShare of default risk on the level of interest rate is not so hugesuggest that people are willin

7、g to pay high interest rates for loans used for productive purpose, which suggests that the rates of return to capital are indeed high in developing countries, at least for some people.Marginal product in some firms is 50% or 100% or even more does not imply that the average of the marginal products

8、 across all firms is nearly as highAverage of the marginal rates of return across firms does not appear to be that high. This suggests a coexistence of very high and very low rates of return in the same economy.中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析8資源錯(cuò)配: Physical capitalHigh int資源錯(cuò)配: Human capitalNo evidence that returns to educa

9、tion are much higher when education is lower, although the relationship is indeed negativeTeacher salary grows less fast than GDP, and the cost of education is thus not proportional to GDPTeachers are relatively more expensive in poor countries (larger class size)Returns to one more year of educatio

10、n are therefore no higher in poor countries中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析9資源錯(cuò)配: Human capitalNo evidence資源錯(cuò)配: Human capital中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析10資源錯(cuò)配: Human capital中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析10Investment rates中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析11India: MPK 22%, (AU/AI) = 2, (yU/yI)=6.35Lucas argued, the actual rates of returns in India are much lowerLower investment-to-GDP ratio, when

11、expressed in PPP, is explained by the low relative price of consumption, relative to investment Hsieh and Klenow (2003)No correlation between government expenditure on education as a fraction of GDP and rate of returns to education Banerjee and Duflo (2005)Many instances where investments options wi

12、th very high rates of returns do not seem to be taken advantage of Goldstein and Udry (1999) (Pineapple), Duflo et al.(2003) (Fertilizer)Investment rates中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析11India:資源錯(cuò)配: Productivity gap and technologyLow TFP in poor countries not because the wrong technology but because firms are too small to be

13、nefit from the best technologies, McKinsey Global Institute (2001)資源錯(cuò)配: Externalities in human capitalTend to limit the extent of diminishing returns with respect to human capital in the production functionInvestment in the education may have negative pecuniary externalities on other Duflo (2003)中國(guó)經(jīng)

14、濟(jì)分析12資源錯(cuò)配: Productivity gap and tec資源錯(cuò)配: Coordination failureCoordinated big push, where all industries start together, can place the country on a permanently higher level of investment and income資源錯(cuò)配: Government failureHypothesis that governments protect investors not enough or by protecting some o

15、f them excessivelyExcessive intervention, Banerjee and Duflo (2004): Small firms subsidized by government but below optimal scale while for medium firms above the cut-off the investment would be extremely profitable Property rights and legal enforcement中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析13資源錯(cuò)配: Coordination failure中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)資源錯(cuò)配: Oth

16、er issuesRole of credit constraintsProblems in the insurance marketsLocal externalities (herd behavior and investment decisions of family)Behavioral issues (vouchers for fertilizers)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析14資源錯(cuò)配: Other issuesRole of credEffect of distortions on productivityAcross-the-board inefficiency, because ever

17、yone could have chosen the wrong technology or the wrong product mixMisallocation of capital across firms: Differences in productivity across firms, either because of differences in scale, or because of differences in technology or because some entrepreneurs are more skilled than othersGoal: Set-up

18、and calibrate a simple model, to investigate whether the misallocation of capital across firms within a country can explain the aggregate puzzles中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析15Effect of distortions on produModel with diminishing returns中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析16Model with diminishing returnsModel with diminishing returns中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析17Model with

19、diminishing returnsModel with fixed costs中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析18Model with fixed costs中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析18可能的研究方向The lessons of development economics will be lost to growth if they are not brought together in an aggregate context. In other words, it is not enough to use them to loosely motivate cross-sectional growth regressi

20、on exercisesa better empirical understanding of where the most important sources of inefficiency lie and better integration of this understanding when we assess the predictions of growth theoryWe have no models that, for example, incorporate reputation-building or learning into growth theory. The sa

21、me can be said about the entire class of behavioral models of underinvestment.Finally, there is the open question of whether we gain anything by building grand models that incorporate all these different reasons for inefficiency in a single model.中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析19可能的研究方向The lessons of developm中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析20Hsieh,K

22、lenow-2009-Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析20Hsieh,Klenow-2009-MisaPreferences and Technology中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析21Preferences and Technology中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)Preferences and Technology (continued)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析22Preferences and Technology (co中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析23產(chǎn)出方面的扭曲資本投資方面的扭曲中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析23產(chǎn)出方面的扭曲資本投資方面的扭曲How to Measure TF

23、P?中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析24How to Measure TFP?中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析24中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析25中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析25Plant TFPs中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析26Plant TFPs中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析26The Different Behavior of TFP Measures中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析27The Different Behavior of TFP Sectoral TFPs中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析28Sectoral TFPs中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析28Sectoral TFPs (continued)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析29Sectoral TFPs (continued)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分Summary of Results中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析30Summ

24、ary of Results中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析30Summary of Results (continued)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析31Summary of Results (continued)Summary of Results (continued)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析32Summary of Results (continued)Summary of Results (continued)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析33Summary of Results (continued)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析34中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析34中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析35中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析35中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析36中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析36中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析37中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析37中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析38中國(guó)

25、經(jīng)濟(jì)分析38中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析39中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析39中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析40中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析40中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析41中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析41中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析42中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析42中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析43中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析43中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析44中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析44main results are the following中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析45 On average, the misallocation of factors across provinces and sectors resulted in a reduction of non-agricultural TFP of at least 20%, with the within-province

26、 distortions accounting for more than half of the total loss. TFP losses from between-province distortions were relatively constant over the entire period. Despite significant inter-provincial labour flows, the TFP loss from between-province labour market distortions remains high due to an increase

27、in the cross-province dispersion in TFP. The measure of within-province distortions declined sharply between 1985 and 1997, contributing to 0.52% nonagricultural TFP growth per year, but then increased significantly in the last ten years, reducing the non-agricultural TFP growth rate by 0.5% a year.

28、 Almost all of the within-province distortions was due to the misallocation of capital between the state and the non-state sectors, which increased sharply in recent years.main results are the followingA framework for measuring factor market distortions中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析46an economy with m provinces, indexed by

29、 i = 1, . . . ,m, and two sectors, state and non-state, indexed by j = s,n,assume that provincial GDP is a CES aggregate of goods produced in the two sectors and the aggregate GDP is a CES aggregate of provincial GDPsA framework for measuring factFactor allocation and aggregate TFP中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析47Factor all

30、ocation and aggregatEfficient allocation and TFP losses from distortions中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析48Efficient allocation and TFP l中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析49中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析49For any given allocation and the associated aggregate and provincial TFP Aand Ai, we can then measure proportional TFP losses due to distortions in the aggregate and in a pro

31、vince as follows:consider three distortions: province-specific output wedges and sector-province specific capital and labour wedges.empirical evidence on province-sector differences in returns to labour and capital and geographical differences in prices 中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析50For any given allocation and tFirms pr

32、oblem中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析51Here is a wedge between marginal cost and marginal revenue of using Yiin aggregate production. We will simply call it the output wedge of province i.Firms problem中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析51Here 中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析52中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析52中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析53中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析53中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析54中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析54Identification of wedges中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析55中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析55中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析56中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析56中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析57

33、中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析57中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析58中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析58The evolution of factor market distortions over time中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析59The evolution of factor market中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析60中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析60中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析61中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析61中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析62中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析62中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析63中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析63ConclusionDespite significant increases in factor mobility, our analysis suggests that China continues to suffer high TFP losses arising from factor market distortions. After declining during the first decade and a half of reform and contributing positively to aggregate non-agricultural TFP growth, these distortions have increased significantly si