趨向在美國食品供應鏈子

TrendsintheU.S.FoodSupplyChain

Dr.KennethC.Clayton

USDAAgriculturalMarketingServiceWorldUnionofWholesaleMarkets

September19,2005

TrendsintheU..S.FoodSupplyChainIntroductionOverviewofTraditional““Competitive””SupplyChainStructureTheSupplyChainofYesteryearOverviewofEmerging““Partnership””SupplyChainStructureTheSupplyChainofTodayReasonsforChange::ChannelBlurringChangingConsumerPreferencesRetailDifferentiationRetailConcentrationGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceTechnologicalCapabilitiesChangingStructureofProductionAgricultureTheSupplyChainofYesteryearSources:BrianSilbermann,PMA,,March2005Dr.DonBowersox,MichiganStateUniversity“Competitive”StructureTraditionalsupermarketsdominatedretailmarketplaceManyshipperssoldtomanybuyersinwholesaleandretailmarkets;nolargebuyersdrovethemarketBuyerstendedtobemoretransactionandprice-oriented;notopentocooperativepartnershipswithsuppliersDailysalestransactionsweretypical“Newtechnology””equaledafaxmachineandPLUstickers“Anticipatory”supplychainsysteminplacewheresuppliersForecastproductsalesBuythecomponentsandmanufacturetheproductsWarehousetheproductsSelltheproductsproducedDelivertheproductstotheconsumerTheSupplyChainofToday“Partnership”Structure

Buyersseekingmorelong--termrelationshipswithsupplierstoensuresteadierpricing,supplyavailability,greaterqualitycontrolTraditional““cultural””dividebetweenprocurementandmarketing//merchandisingdepartmentsdisappearingaslong-termsupplyrelationshipstakeprecedenceovershort-termpricenegotiationsTechnologicalcapabilitiesallowsuperiorexchangeofdatabetweenfoodsuppliersandbuyers,whichpermitsmoreprecisemonitoringandcalculationsofsalestransactionsanddemandrequirementsTheSupplyChainofToday“Real-time””informationexchangepermitsmovementtowardso-called“responsive”businessmodel,wherebysuppliersFirstselltheirproductsBuythecomponentsandmaterialsnecessarytoproducetheproductsManufacturetheproductsanddelivertocustomerUnderthefullyresponsivebusinessmodel,thereisnoinventory.Thesystemworkssoquicklythatretailerscansellproductstoconsumersthattheretailerhasnotevenhadtopayforyet..Forfoodproducts,growingverticalintegrationofU.S..productionagriculture——includingcommoditiessuchasproduce—increaseopportunitiesforstrategicalliancesacrossthesupplychainOccurringagainstbackdropofgrowingdiversityofretailvenueswherefoodproductsaremarketedtoconsumers,includingawayfromhomeReasonsforChangeChannelBlurringReasonsforChangeChannelBlurringConsumersarerejectingtraditionalsupermarketsinfavorofalternativefoodretailoutlets:Traditionalgrocerychannelhasexperienceddeclineseveryyearsince1995In2004,theaverageU.S..householdmade69tripstotraditionalsupermarketsorgrocerystores,comparedto92tripsin19952004markedthefirstyearthattraditionalsupermarketsorgrocerystoresexperiencedlessthan100%householdpenetrationTraditionalgrocerystoresrepresented52%ofthenation’sgroceryandconsumablesalesin2004,downfrom81%in1994Shareisforecasttoslipto46%by2009ReasonsforChangeChannelBlurringSupercenters,,dollarstoresbiggainersinpastfewyears::Supercentershavegainedthemostintermsofnumberofaverageannualshoppingtrips(27persurveyedhouseholdin2004,,comparedto15in1999))17%ofsurveyedcustomersnowreportthatsupercentersaretheirprimaryfoodshoppingvenueDollarstoreshavegainedthemostintermsofhouseholdpenetration67%ofsurveyedhouseholdsvisitedadollarstorein2004,,comparedto52%in1999Nontraditionalfoodsellers,,includingsupercenters,,dollarstores,,andwholesaleclubs,,represented32%ofgroceryandconsumablesalesin2004,,upfrom9%in1994––expectedtoriseto39%%by2009Sources:ProgressiveGrocer,,April2004FMI,,May2004ReasonsforChangeChannelBlurringDirect--to--consumermarketingoutletsgainingtractionValueofdirect--to--consumersalesgrew37%between1997and20022%ofsurveyedfoodshoppersnowindicatethatfarmersmarketsaretheirprimaryfoodshoppingvenueFarmersmarketsreportedtohavenearlya4%marketshareoftheorganicfoodmarketSources:OrganicTradeAssociation2004ManufacturersSurvey2002CensusofAgricultureReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesTheaverageshoppershopsat2..2storeseachweektoobtainalltheiritems,,andthefactthattheyarewillingtogotodifferentstorestopurchasevariousitemssuggeststhatsupermarketsaremissinganopportunitytocapturemoreconsumerdollarsbydeliveringandcommunicatingagreaterselectionandvaluetotheirshoppers..─PhilLempert,,SupermarketGuru((2002)ReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesGrowingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoodsOrganicfoodsU.S..salesoforganicfoodgrewfrom$$3..5billionin1997toreachmorethan$10billionby2003$4.3billionor42%%oftotalorganicsalesin2003consistedofproduceitemsAveragegrowthrateof18%projectedbetween2004-2008,,comparedwithgrowthof2%%to3%%fortheconventionalfoodindustrySource::OrganicTradeAssociationReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesGrowingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoods(continued)Locally-grownfoodsLargeincreasesindemandforlocalfoodsacrossallrestaurantcategories.73%ofAmericanssayitisimportanttoknowwhetherfoodisgrownorproducedlocallyorregionallyMorethan75%%ofconsumerssurveyedin2003insevenMidwesternstatesandthemetropolitanBostonandSeattleareaschose““grownlocallybyfamilyfarmers”astheir##1choiceforproduceorproductsSources:RoperPublicAffairs,IowaStateUniversityTheNationalRestaurantAssociationReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesSource::TrendsinU.S..ProduceMarketing,Dr.RobertaCook,Univ.ofCADavis,April2005,basedonACNielsenfiguresGrowingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoods(continued)Convenience-orientedfoodsSalesoffreshcutsaladsatsupermarketsincreasedfrom$$197millionin1993to$$2.5billionin2003ReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesGrowingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoods(continued)Ready-to-eat//takeoutfoodsManyconsumers,whennoteatingout,arebringingpreparedmealshome..Almostone-third(31%))saythat,atleastonceaweek,theyeatmealsathomethatwerenotpreparedathomeCloseto10%saytheybringhometakeoutfoodthreeormoretimeseachweekMoretake--outfoodbeingpurchasedatsupermarkets27%oftakeoutfoodpurchasedatsupermarketsin2004,comparedto19%%in2003Source::FMI2004TrendsreportReasonsforChangeRetailDifferentiationConsumersarebecomingmorepolarizedandfragmentedasagroup..Thedifferencesinproductandshoppingpreferencesbetweenyoungandold,richandpoor,marriedandsingle,,Caucasianandethnic,urbanandexurban,arebecominggreater..Theseconsumersarelookingforproductsandservicesthatareauthenticanduniquetotheircommunities.─DeloitteResearch(quotedinProgressiveGrocer,Feb.15,2005)ReasonsforChangeRetailDifferentiationInresponsetochangingconsumerdemands,retailersarebecomingmorefocusedonspecificmarketsegmentsNewstoreconstructionin2003wasprimarilydrivenbytarget-marketfocusedstores.Overall,,12.6%%ofcompaniesthatrespondedtoFMI’’sstoredevelopmentsurveyoperatedatleastonetarget-marketfocusedstore.Ofthese:44.4%offeredgourmetformatsandnearlyone-thirdofferedHispanic-orientedornatural//organicformatsThemajorityoperatedsmallerchainsof11to100stores36.4%ofthetarget-marketfocusedstoresscheduledtoopeninthenextyearwereHispanic--orientedformats,45..5%werenatural/organicoutlets,and18.2%%weregourmetoutletsReasonsforChangeRetailDifferentiationDemandforvarietydrivingexpansionofretailproducedepartmentsStronggrowthinretailproducestockkeepingunits((SKUs))providescompetitiveadvantagetosuppliers——suchasspecialtywholesalers——whocandeliverbroadvarietyofproduceitemstoretailbuyersSource::FreshTrack2001,CornellUniversityReasonsforChangeRetailConcentrationReasonsforChangeRetailConcentrationDwindlingsupermarketloyaltyleadstosluggishprofitsTotalsalesatU.S..supermarketsin2004rose4.2%above2003.WhendeflatedbytheFMI’ssupermarketpriceindex,,actualgrowthwasjust0.89%──belowtheaverage1%increaseinpopulationIn2003,althoughsalesgrowthatthetoptensupermarketchainsgrew2.7%,overallfoodsalesgrowthactuallyincreased5.8%duringthesametimeperiod,,demonstratingtherelativeweaknessofthetraditionalsupermarketsector..Source::U..S.CensusBureauReasonsforChangeRetailConcentrationConsolidationofretailsupermarketscontinuestointensifyGrocerySalesMarketShareTopU.S.FoodRetailers1992-2004Sources:USDA/ERS,1992-2003,FMI2004FMI((2004salesstatistics)Top20foodretailersinU.S.responsiblefor68%%ofretailgrocerysales,95%ofsupermarketsalesTop4foodretailersinU.S..responsiblefornearly39%%ofgrocerysales,,54%ofsupermarketsalesReasonsforChangeRetailConcentrationHighlycompetitiveleadingtoaggressivecostsavingandheightenedqualitycontrolthroughoutthesupplychainMorethan80%%ofsurveyedretailersrevealedthattheydemandedmoreservicesfromtheirsuppliersthantheydidin199374%ofsurveyedproduceshippersreportedincreaseddemandfromtheirretailbuyers.Toppingthelistwere:TheprovisionofprivatelabelproductsCategorymanagementservicesElectronicdatainterchangecapabilityGreateremphasisbeingplacedonpreciseinventorymanagementthroughcollaborativerelationships,dataexchangewithsuppliersSources:WillardBishopConsulting,June2000NationalFoodandAgriculturalPolicyProjectPolicy(NFAPP)BriefingPaper,,ArizonaStateUniversity,,March2001ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceAway-from--homefoodconsumptioncontinuestoincreaseIn2003,about$$949billionworthoffoodwassuppliedbythefoodmarketingsystem.Foodservicefacilitiessuppliedabout$$445billionofthistotalforon-premiseorimmediateconsumption,the2ndhighestlevelinrecenthistory.70%ofshopperseattheireveningmealoutatleastonceaweekProduceconsumptionhasbeensignificantlyboostedbytheaway-from-homemarketPercapitaconsumptionofvegetablesincreasedbyabout25%between1980--82and2000--02..Morethan30%%offreshonions,freshmarkettomatoes,mushrooms,,sweetpeppersandgarlicareusedinfoodserviceSource::USDAEconomicResearchService;FMI,June2004ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceAway-from--homefoodconsumptioncontinuestoincrease(continued)ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceImplicationsofaway-from-homeconsumptiontrendsRapidgrowthinimportanceoffoodservicesegmenttowholesaleindustry1987:8%ofwholesaleproducesalesgeneratedbyfoodservicecustomers((comparedto38%%forretail))1997:21%%ofwholesaleproducesalesgeneratedbyfoodservicecustomers((comparedto35%forretail)2002:Surveyedspecialtyfoodandproducedistributorsreportthatfoodservicecustomersaccountfor45%ofsales2005:Foodserviceshareofspecialtydistributorsalesprojectedtoriseto48%

Sources:1987and1997datafromUSDA/ERS,2002and2005datafromCornellUniversityCensusofWholesaleTradeFreshTrack2003((Cornell,,PMA)ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceDemandsforservicebyfoodserviceoperatorstemperdesirefordirectprocurementfromgrowersTwo--thirdsoffoodserviceoperatorssurveyedbyCornellUniversityin2003—andmorethanthree-quartersofcasualdiningoperators—expecttoincrease““theirdirectcontactwithgrower//shippers””toplanproductionofspecificproduceitems/varietiesDespitesignsofinterestinestablishingmoredirectgrowercontact,foodserviceoperatorsexpressequalorgreaterpreferencetoreceivingthefollowingservicesfromdistributorsratherthangrower/shippers:PricequotesMarketreportsAvailabilityof““opportunisticbuys”PackagecustomizationCost-basedanalysisFoodsafetyassuranceQualityinspectionsSources:CornellUniversity,FreshTrack2003ReasonsforChangeGrowingImportanceofFoodserviceSpecialtyproducedistributorshavethecompetitiveedgeinmeetingfoodservicedemandsforvariety,,quality,,flexibilityLargemajorityofsurveyedfoodserviceoperatorsexpecttoincreasenumberoffresh,pre-cut,and“healthy”produceitemstheypurchase,,includingitemsfor““centeroftheplate””entreesSpecialtydistributorstypicallyhandlemoreproduceSKUsthanbroadlinedistributors(whosupplyfoodandnon-fooditems)—377SKUs,onaverage,comparedto310forbroadlinedistributors.Specialtydistributorsplacemoreemphasisonhandling““unique”producevarieties,,“pre--ripened”fruits,andtoalesserdegree,organicproductsWhenselectingasupplierofpre-cutproduce,foodserviceoperatorsindicatedthat“frequent”and“flexible”deliveryschedulesmatteredmost——givingadistinctadvantagetofirmsthatcanprovidethesetailoredservicesSources:CornellUniversity,FreshTrack2003ReasonsforChangeTechnologicalCapabilitiesReasonsforChangeTechnologicalCapabilitiesNewtechnologies,suchastheGlobalDataSynchronizationNetwork((GDSN),,allowelectroniccommunicationof““real-time”databetweenfirms,,facilitatingcategorymanagementandefficientsupplyreplenishmentForproducttracking,RadioFrequencyIdentification(RFID)tagscanprovidemoredetailed,,accurate,andfrequentdatamessagesthanbarcodes

ReasonsforChangeTechnologicalCapabilitiesCurrenttechnologicalprioritiesWhensupermarketbuyerswereaskedwhichareaswillyourcompanytestorlaunchaprogramin2005,theyresponded:DataSynchronization,28%%in2005,,comparedto18%in2004RFID,21%in2005,comparedto3%in2004Nearlyhalfoffoodserviceoperatorssurveyedin2003alreadyrankedelectronicdatainterchangecap