財務報表分析的邏輯切入點課件

廈門國家會計學院

報表分析新思維(之一)

報表分析的邏輯切入點

黃世忠

Ph.DCPA.MBA聯(lián)系電話:0592-25777781390601696512/8/20221XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute廈門國家會計學院12/7/20221XiamenNa闡述報表分析的邏輯切入點基于M公司與GFC公司的案例分析案例分析德隆的垮臺與財務報表的預警信號中石油的經(jīng)營記錄與業(yè)績評價移動電信的輝煌業(yè)績與潛在風險本講旨在闡明報表分析的常見誤區(qū)，把握報表分析的邏輯體系研討要點與目的12/8/20222XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute闡述報表分析的邏輯切入點研討要點與目的12/7/20222X三大核心問題問題1M公司與GFC公司孰優(yōu)孰劣？孰強孰弱？問題2M公司與GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？問題3如何評價M公司與GFC公司的業(yè)績？

考倒全世界頂級MBA的難題12/8/20223XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大核心問題考倒全世界頂級MBA的難題12/7/202

經(jīng)營規(guī)模--雇員人數(shù)12/8/20224XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)營規(guī)模--雇員人數(shù)12/7/20224Xi

經(jīng)營規(guī)模--資產(chǎn)總額12/8/20225XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)營規(guī)模--資產(chǎn)總額12/7/20225Xiame

經(jīng)營規(guī)模—銷售收入12/8/20226XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)營規(guī)?！N售收入12/7/20226Xiame

經(jīng)營規(guī)模--CFFOA12/8/20227XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)營規(guī)模--CFFOA12/7/20227Xiam股票市值(Capitalization)12/8/20228XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute股票市值(Capitalization)12/7/20財務實力—凈資產(chǎn)12/8/20229XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute財務實力—凈資產(chǎn)12/7/20229Xiamen

經(jīng)營績效—凈利潤12/8/202210XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)營績效—凈利潤12/7/202210Xiamen財務數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM(2002)

項目名稱

GFC公司

M公司

倍數(shù)GFC合計M雇員人數(shù)36.535.036.8108.35.0521.45資產(chǎn)總額3,7182,9522,1928,86267613.11銷售收入1,8601,6261,7505,23628418.44現(xiàn)金流量1711862085651453.90股票市值2001963137092,5410.28股東權益68564085325400.99凈利潤17-105562780.79ROE25%-18%13%12%14%0.86新經(jīng)濟與舊經(jīng)濟的反差12/8/202211XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute財務數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM(2002)項目1.科學管理(時間和動作研究)2.成本核算和差異分析3.商業(yè)研究實驗室(科學產(chǎn)業(yè)化)(GE)4.(ROI&ROE)資本分析和資本預算5.品牌管理(P&G)6.大規(guī)模項目管理7.事業(yè)部制(GM)8.領導力開發(fā)(GE)9.產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)聯(lián)合(多公司合作組織)(Visa)10.極度分權化(自我組織)(Google)11.正式化戰(zhàn)略分析12.員工驅(qū)動問題解決法(Toyota)DuPontAnalysis13.臭鼬工廠(內(nèi)部攻堅小組)14.客戶管理15.業(yè)務流程再造

1900-2000年175項管理創(chuàng)新1.是否明顯脫離以前的管理實踐2.是否給率先創(chuàng)新的公司帶來競爭優(yōu)勢3.是否在當今的組織中留下烙印

20世紀現(xiàn)代管理的12大創(chuàng)新12/8/202212XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute1.科學管理(時間和動作研究)DuPont13.臭鼬工廠(內(nèi)凈資產(chǎn)收益率

(收入+利得)–(成本+費用+損失)實收資本+資本公積+盈余公積+未分配利潤

凈利潤ROE=凈資產(chǎn)做大分子:增收節(jié)支做小分母:光明正道:資本結構歪門邪道:虧損揮霍

ROE陷阱12/8/202213XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute凈資產(chǎn)收益率財務數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM(2003)

項目名稱

GFC公司

M公司

倍數(shù)GFC合計M雇員人數(shù)32.332.838.4103.55.718.2資產(chǎn)總額4,4853,0462,2469,77779612.3銷售收入1,8551,6421,7195,21632216.2現(xiàn)金流量762022084861583.1股票市值2182594539302,9150.32股東權益2521174348036101.32凈利潤384.95.648.599.90.49ROE15%4%1.3%6%16%0.38

新經(jīng)濟與舊經(jīng)濟的強烈反差12/8/202214XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute財務數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM(2003)項目盈利質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量

財務報表分析的三大邏輯切入點12/8/202215XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量財務報表分析的三大邏輯切入點12/盈利質(zhì)量收入質(zhì)量利潤質(zhì)量毛利率成長性波動性研發(fā)營銷

盈利質(zhì)量分析方法12/8/202216XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利質(zhì)量收入質(zhì)量利潤質(zhì)量毛利率成長性波動性研發(fā)營銷收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999197169016011482200023017391698160320012531691160915402002284177316231474200332218551642136420043681935170914212005398192617711498200644320731601151620075111881172515262008604

12/8/202217XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)MSF收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)12/8/202218XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)12/7/2

利潤質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999796072572000944535792001736-55-720027817-104720039538542004902835252005122-10620282006126-21-124322007141-387-25402008177

12/8/202219XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute利潤質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)MS利潤質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)12/8/202220XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute利潤質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)12/7/RivalAmountDateTimeWarner$750mMay2003SunMicro$1.95bApril2004Novell$536mNov.2004B$60mMarch2005Gateway$150mApril2005IBM$775mJune2005Total$4.221bMicrosoftSettlement

(Antitrustsuitfiledin1998,settledin2001)12/8/202221XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteRivalAmount項目名稱GMFordDaimlerChrysler200420052004200520042005銷售收入1,935.171,926.041,716.461,781.011,682.261,773.65其中:汽車1,615.461,582.211,471.281,545.151,517.191,590.82金融319.71343.83245.18235.86165.07182.83凈利潤27.89-105.5434.8719.9829.2033.70其中:汽車-1.05-130.62-1.55-39.26n.an.a金融28.0825.0850.0858.81n.an.a經(jīng)營業(yè)績:2005vs.200412/8/202222XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項目GM2006:艱難的轉(zhuǎn)折?ChryslerGroup2006OperatingLoss$152007totalLoss$29.2May15,2007soldfor$74May10,1998boughtfor$360GMFordDCXQ14.45-11.872.99Q2-33.79-2.5418.10Q3-1.15-58.005.51Q4+9.50-51.645.67Total-20.99-124.0532.272007:-$3872008Q3:-$213SEasoftheendof2008Q3GM:-599;Ford:-202008Q3-$8712/8/202223XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2006:艱難的轉(zhuǎn)折?ChryslerGrou毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)會計年度GFCM20019.2%1.8%16.1%86.3%20027.8%6.8%18.8%81.6%20038.0%6.2%19.4%81.2%20047.0%7.8%19.4%81.8%2005-2.5%5.6%17.9%84.4%20064.8%-3.9%17.1%81.1%20076.7%7.6%24.8%79.1%2008

80.8%12/8/202224XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)會計年度M公司的成本費用結構3EStrategyEmbrace,Extend,Extinguish12/8/202225XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteM公司的成本費用結構3EStrategy12/7/202R&D占銷售收入比重2006年2248家企業(yè)集團R&D占比1.1%GM2003-20053.33%;3.34%;3.47%12/8/202226XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteR&D占銷售收入比重2006年2248家企業(yè)集團成本結構與風險傳導資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)結構現(xiàn)金含量退出壁壘經(jīng)營風險財務彈性潛在損失

資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量分析方法技術風險12/8/202227XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute成本結構與風險傳導資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)結構現(xiàn)金含量退出壁壘經(jīng)營風險財資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2001)12/8/202228XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2001)1資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2002)12/8/202229XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2002)1資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2003)12/8/202230XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2003)1資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2004)12/8/202231XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2004)1資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2005)12/8/202232XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2005)1

如何解釋市凈率?13.15.55.83.40.6712/8/202233XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute如何解釋市凈率?3.40.671

品牌價值12/8/202234XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute品牌價值12/7/202234Xia

被忽略的“軟資產(chǎn)”Coca-ColaMicrosoft品牌價值資產(chǎn)總額股東權益品牌價值資產(chǎn)總額股東權益2001690224114651588473200269624411864167652220037052731416527966492004674314159614944748200567529416459970848212/8/202235XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute被忽略的“軟資產(chǎn)”Coca-Cola何為風險?Riskisuncertainty風險的類別經(jīng)濟風險(EconomicRisk)環(huán)境風險(經(jīng)濟條件、政治及社會環(huán)境）市場風險（市場結構、企業(yè)競爭優(yōu)勢）經(jīng)營風險（OperationalRisk)固定成本與變動成本比例財務風險（FinancialRisk)資本結構與金融市場利率營業(yè)風險BusinessRisk利潤易變性ProfitVolatility傳導傳導成本結構與風險傳導12/8/202236XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute何為風險?營業(yè)風險利潤易變性傳傳成本結構與風險傳導12/7/+5%+14%+18%

-5%-14%-18%

經(jīng)濟風險

經(jīng)營風險

營業(yè)風險

財務風險經(jīng)濟狀況政治社會環(huán)境銷售收入息稅前利潤稅后利潤市場結構競爭優(yōu)勢

風險的傳導與放大12/8/202237XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)濟狀況銷售息稅前稅后市場結構風險的傳導與放大12

XYZ公司風險評估測算表預期數(shù)

銷售收入+5%

銷售收入-5%銷售收入50,000+5%52,500-5%47,500減:變動成本19,000+5%19,950-5%18,050

固定成本20,0000%20,0000%20,000息稅前利潤11,000+14%12,550-14%9,450減:固定利息支出2,5000%2,5000%2,500稅前利潤8,500+18%10,050-18%6,950減:所得稅2,125+18%2,513-18%1,738稅后利潤6,375+18%7,537-18%5,212

風險傳導放大效應12/8/202238XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteXYZ公司風險評估測算表預期現(xiàn)金流量經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量自由現(xiàn)金流量“造血”功能自由裁量

現(xiàn)金流量分析方法12/8/202239XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量自由現(xiàn)金流量“造血”功能自由裁量廣義的自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF=經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量-資本支出用于評估還本付息和股利支付的能力狹義的自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF=經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量-資本支出-現(xiàn)金股利用于評估企業(yè)的財務彈性利用市場機遇和應對市場逆境的能力用于評估企業(yè)依靠內(nèi)部現(xiàn)金資源謀求發(fā)展的能力CFFOAvs.FreeCashFlow12/8/202240XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute廣義的自由現(xiàn)金流量CFFOAvs.FreeCash現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:G(12vs.73)200420052006FCF+53-250-197Interest120158170Principal4526461419162007CF-O:77;CF-CE:75Int.:29;P:184412/8/202241XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:G(12vs.73)20042005202005.12.13Cut30,000jobsClose9facilitiesBy2008(2005.11.21)Share$19.85(2005.12.20)Lowestin23yearsGM-不斷惡化的信用等級12/8/202242XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2005.12.13Cut30,000jobsGM-不斷

GMvs.Toyota2008.11.7GM:27TM:105212/8/202243XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteGMvs.Toyota2008.11.71誰是老大?12/8/202244XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute誰是老大?12/7/202244Xiame1.1millionofemployeescovered,pensionandhealthcareliabilitytotaled$170b,currentShortage$54bGM-不堪重負的醫(yī)療與退休債務12/8/202245XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute1.1millionofemployeescover20052004GMToyotaGMToyotaHealthCare$1,850

$200$1,528$201Pension$700$50$695$50Total$2,550$250$2,223$251GAP:$2,300GAP:$1,972醫(yī)療及退休費用對制造成本的影響12/8/202246XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute20052004汽車巨頭盈利能力差異12/8/202247XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute汽車巨頭盈利能力差異12/7/202247XiamenS&PloweredFord’sratingtoB+onJune27,2006現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:F(69vs.63)2007CF-O:171CF-CE:6012/8/202248XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteS&PloweredFord’sratingto2006年—F公司的生死之年?WayForwardTurnaroundProgram1.CutNorthAmericaWhite-collarcostsby10%2.Eliminateupto30,000Hourlyjobsandclose14Plantsby20122006.9.15Buyoutall75,000NorthAmericanfactoryworkers$140,000perworkerTotal$10.5billion12/8/202249XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2006年—F公司的生死之年?WayForward12/7

現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:C2007CF-O:191CF-CE:16412/8/202250XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:C200712/7/202250Xiamen

現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:M12/8/202251XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:M12/7/202251XiamenMicrosoft:股票期權的妙用IfyouworkforMicrosoft,Microsoftdoesnotpayyou,youhavetopayMicrosoft2003-2008166.4012/8/202252XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteMicrosoft:股票期權的妙用IfyouworkProblemChildrenStarsDogsCashCows市場成長性市場占有率高低高

BytheBostonConsultingGroupin1968

波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)12/8/202253XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteProblemChildrenStarsDogsCashStars(現(xiàn)金明星)

–PLC處于高速成長階段，市場占有率很高且仍呈上升趨勢–銷售收入和現(xiàn)金流量有很高的增長潛力–獲利豐厚，但現(xiàn)金流量不很充裕波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)12/8/202254XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteStars(現(xiàn)金明星)波士頓矩陣(TheBostonCashCows(現(xiàn)金奶牛)市場占有率很高PLC處于成熟階段產(chǎn)品維持成本較低現(xiàn)金性收入很高經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量十分充裕波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)12/8/202255XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteCashCows(現(xiàn)金奶牛)波士頓矩陣(TheBostoDogs(現(xiàn)金瘦狗)PLC處于衰退階段

市場占有率很低或不斷下降經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量入不敷出產(chǎn)品需要大量維持支出Isyourproductstartingtoembarrassyourcompany?波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)12/8/202256XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteDogs(現(xiàn)金瘦狗)IsyourproductstarProblemChild(問題小孩)PLC處于高速成長階段，但市場占有率很低產(chǎn)品維持需要大量資金支出經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量可能出現(xiàn)負數(shù)未來潛力充滿不確定性Problemchildren–worthspendinggoodmoneyon?波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)12/8/202257XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteProblemChildProblemchildren

股票市場表現(xiàn)12/8/202258XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute股票市場表現(xiàn)12/7/202258XiameMicrosoft的崛起1975年4月BillGatesandPaulAllen創(chuàng)立了MicrosoftMicrosoftstaffphotofromDecember7,1978.Fromlefttoright:

Top:SteveWood,BobWallace,JimLane.

Middle:BobO'Rear,BobGreenberg,MarcMcDonald,GordonLetwin.

Bottom:BillGates,AndreaLewis,MarlaWood,PaulAllen

IPOinMarch13,1986,raising$61mTodate,totalcapitalraisedismorethan$62.8b12/8/202259XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteMicrosoft的崛起1975年4月BillGates

BillGates的”裸捐”WarrenBuffettdonated$37billion,mainlytotheBill&MelindaGatesFoundation+$5012/8/202260XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteBillGates的”裸捐”WarrenBuf誰是美國高科技的最大功臣?

中美經(jīng)濟改革的不同價值取向12/8/202261XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute誰是美國高科技的最大功臣?中美經(jīng)濟改革的12/7/2022三大邏輯切入點盈利質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量收入質(zhì)量利潤質(zhì)量毛利率高低成長性退出壁壘潛在損失經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量自由現(xiàn)金流量波動性資產(chǎn)結構現(xiàn)金含量”造血“功能自由裁量研發(fā)營銷報表分析三大邏輯切入點12/8/202262XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大盈利質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量收入質(zhì)量利潤質(zhì)量毛利率高低成長性盈利質(zhì)量與資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量相互背離案例NPLRatio2005:4.62%;2006:4.04%NPLRatio2001:27.51%;2002:22.49%撥備覆蓋率2001:16.80%2002:22.09%撥備覆蓋率2005:80.55%;2006:96.00%12/8/202263XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利質(zhì)量與資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量相互背離案例NPLRatioNPLRa盈利質(zhì)量與資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量相互背離案例類別名稱XYZ銀行20022001正常貸款11,5568,935關注貸款2,5202,558不良貸款4,0854,360其中:次級6571,089可疑1,5542,344損失1,874927貸款合計18,16215,853貸款準備903681貸款類別計提比例正常1%關注2%次級25%可疑50%損失100%12/8/202264XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利質(zhì)量與資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量相互背離案例類別第一次不良貸款剝離Carved-outOrCoveredout?12/8/202265XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute第一次不良貸款剝離Carved-out12/7/202BankAMCNPL(￥billion)工行華融407.7農(nóng)行長城345.8中行東方267.4建行信達373.0合計1,394.0《財政部關于中國銀行和中國建設銀行所持金融資產(chǎn)管理公司債券本息有關問題的通知》（財金[2004]87號），從2005.1.1起，如果東方和信達不能全額向BOC和CCB支付債券利息或按期兌付本金，MOF將給予資金支持NPLtransferredtoAMC12/8/202266XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteBankAMCNPL(￥bil414億元可疑類貸款227億元核銷沖銷貸款2787億元可疑類貸款2460億元損失類貸款4590億元可疑類貸款交行2004.6中行和建行2004.6工行2005.5;2005.6信達信達四大AMC

不良貸款二次剝離12/8/202267XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2787億元2460億元交行中行和建行工行信達信達四大AMC年度凈利潤CFFOA19989,876-17,191199912,308-21,248200017,844-53,57620013,610-2,59420022,280-84,8072003-18,683-15,54420041,98245,3002005-69,60021,6002006-71,86616,413年度凈利潤比例調(diào)整前17,844調(diào)整后6,99539.2%調(diào)整額10,84960.8%調(diào)整原因?qū)⒃嬋腴L期待攤費用和在建工程的R&D，作為重大會計差錯進行調(diào)整

“紙面富貴”的D公司2004:S26.3;NI(A)-641;2005:S15.6;NI(A)-7.112006:S21.42004:NIoverstatedby3719,30finedbyCSRS12/8/202268XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute年度凈利潤CFFOA19989,876

樂極生悲的四川長虹凈利潤20010.891.762.412004-36.812004Q1-Q3CFFOA-3.1212/8/202269XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute樂極生悲的四川長虹凈利潤2004Q1-Q312/權責發(fā)生制會計管理當局動機盈利質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量分析資產(chǎn)負債質(zhì)量核心盈利可持續(xù)性、成長性、現(xiàn)金流量調(diào)整與調(diào)節(jié)應計制向現(xiàn)金流動制的轉(zhuǎn)換確認和計量資產(chǎn)、負債、股東權益決策財務契約設計估值與投資信貸分析財務風險評估審計風險評估差錯歪曲報表失真問題報表分析緯度報表分析用途財務報表分析的邏輯切入點12/8/202270XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute權責發(fā)生盈利質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量資產(chǎn)負債核心盈利調(diào)整與調(diào)節(jié)確認和計量三大報表的功能區(qū)分資產(chǎn)負債表利潤表現(xiàn)金流量表從“德隆系”的垮臺看證券監(jiān)管的誤區(qū)基于新疆屯河的案例分析德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/8/202271XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大報表的功能區(qū)分德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/7/2022現(xiàn)金流量表的“妙用”經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量投資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量籌資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量造血功能抽血功能輸血功能現(xiàn)金流量表—經(jīng)常被忽略的報表12/8/202272XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量表的“妙用”經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量投資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金IPO的條件3年連續(xù)盈利上市前一年末的凈資產(chǎn)比率不低于30%SEO的門檻配股：ROE不低于6%增發(fā)：上一年的ROE不低于10%ST或退市的標準ST：連續(xù)兩年虧損，或NAPS低于1元退市：連續(xù)三年虧損復市的條件恢復盈利以利潤表和資產(chǎn)負債表的監(jiān)管導向12/8/202273XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteIPO的條件以利潤表和資產(chǎn)負債表的監(jiān)管導向12/7/2022

項目名稱2001年末2002年末2003年末2004年末流動資產(chǎn)173,190281,349139,354163,402長期投資98,33978,10188,11448,081固定資產(chǎn)134,618245,025143,305171,191無形及其他資產(chǎn)23,62127,5469,73311,676

資產(chǎn)總計429,768632,021380,506394,350流動負債278,007426,140217,752311,522長期負債6,70642,83548,51443,459少數(shù)股東權益56,60962,0472,5923,378股東權益88,446100,999111,64835,991L&SE總計429,768632,021380,506394,350

德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/8/202274XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項目名稱2001年末2002年末中國電信的運營資本20072006200520042003固定資產(chǎn)339,331346,805351,938349,713341,576其他非流動資產(chǎn)25,99327,86028,70129,47129,391現(xiàn)金及銀行存款20,55622,44518,86314,60318,199其他流動資產(chǎn)22,12421,76121,58219,83920,278資產(chǎn)合計408,004418,871421,084413,626409,444流動負債138,537157,629157,707152,284149,630非流動負債47,09553,59377,199100,007102,744負債合計185,632211,222234,906252,291252,374股東權益222.372207,649186,178161,335157,070負債與股東權益合計408,004418,871421,084413,626409,444運營資本-95,857-113,423-117,262-117,842-111,153運營資本—中國移動+52,68+22,16112/8/202275XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國電信的運營資本2007200620047,459185,084-34,924德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/8/202276XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute20047,459185,084-34,924德隆項目名稱2001年2002年2003年2004年主營業(yè)務收入76,726194,351217,379109,765主營業(yè)務利潤25,87272,13878,55029,980營業(yè)利潤3,8247,6135,357-29,177加：投資收益4,2354,9929,824-37,839補貼收入5654,887407472營業(yè)外收入317411345106減：營業(yè)外支出1565564781,958利潤總額8,78517,34715,456-68,397減：所得稅-5222,374168179少數(shù)股東損益4,2413,7093,361-746加：未確認投資損失

1,229凈利潤5,06611,26211,926-66,601德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/8/202277XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項目名稱2001年2002項目名稱2001年2002年2003年2004年經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金-19,61848,84527,726-41,910投資活動的現(xiàn)金流入3,72228370,39315,232其中:收回投資3,180069,94815,100投資收益506000投資活動的現(xiàn)金流出55,91351,884173,16724,909投資活動的凈現(xiàn)金流-52,19151,601-102,774-9,676籌資活動的現(xiàn)金流入156,569212,677327,95262,126其中:借款137,244212,467324,97358,968籌資活動的現(xiàn)金流出75,651143,361289,02050,596其中：償還債務67,830123,278270,33240,802

支付股利和利息7,82119,89717,3419,733德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/8/202278XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項目名稱2001年2002德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/8/202279XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?12/7/202279Xiamen德隆的死因既不是被郎咸平“搞死”的，也不是被監(jiān)管部門“整死”的而是自己“搞死”的戰(zhàn)略管理的失誤理財策略的失誤短借長用“造血”功能不足，靠“輸血”維持，且不懂得“節(jié)制”初步啟示證券監(jiān)管出現(xiàn)方向性“偏差”CSRC和兩個SE都不關心現(xiàn)金流量表，CPA也不例外理性回歸牢記理財學中的“萬有引力定律”Cashisking!CashFlowStatementisakingwithoutcloth!

簡短結論12/8/202280XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute德隆的死因簡短結論12/7/202280X燃料工業(yè)部石油管理總局(1950.4)石油工業(yè)部(1955.7)燃料化學工業(yè)部(1970.6)石油化學工業(yè)部(1975)石油工業(yè)部(1978)中國石油天然氣總公司(1988.9)中國石油天然氣集團公司(1998.7)中國海洋石油總公司(1982.2)中國石油化工總公司(1983.7)

中國石油化工行業(yè)的沿革12/8/202281XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute燃料工業(yè)部石油管理總局(1950.4)石油工業(yè)部(1955.2000.4上市—200億2005.9增發(fā)—196億1999.11.5重組中石油(0857.HK)股價周線圖發(fā)行40億A股,發(fā)行價16.70元，募集688億元股份比例%國有股157986.28H股21111.53A股402.19合計1830100.012/8/202282XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2000.4上市—200億1999.11.5中石油(0857中石油上市以來股價表現(xiàn)發(fā)行價格1.26vs.16.7巴菲特撤退?12/8/202283XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油上市以來股價表現(xiàn)發(fā)行價格巴菲特撤退?12/7/202中石油業(yè)績因何突出?--業(yè)績角度2008Q3S:8537NI:98712/8/202284XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績因何突出?--業(yè)績角度2008Q312/7/20中石油業(yè)績因何突出?–稅收角度2008Q3188312/8/202285XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績因何突出?–稅收角度2008Q312/7/20中石油業(yè)績因何突出?–資產(chǎn)結構角度2008Q3TA:10594;FA:693512/8/202286XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績因何突出?–資產(chǎn)結構角度2008Q312/7/2中石油業(yè)績因何突出?

–財務狀況角度2008Q3TA:11227;SE:7853DR:30.05%DR:28.07%12/8/202287XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績因何突出?–財務狀況角度2008Q3DR:12/中石油業(yè)績因何突出?–現(xiàn)金流量角度2008Q3OA:1499;IA:-1196;FA:-26912/8/202288XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績因何突出?–現(xiàn)金流量角度2008Q312/7/中石油業(yè)績因何突出?—自由現(xiàn)金流量角度2008Q3:19712/8/202289XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績因何突出?—自由現(xiàn)金流量角度2008Q3:197中國石油業(yè)績報告(可控與不可控因素分析)油價影響?EVA影響?改制影響?中石油業(yè)績因何突出?12/8/202290XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國石油油價影響?EVA影響?改制影響?中石油業(yè)績因何突出?

業(yè)績飆升的動因2007接替率原油:1.104天然氣:3.23812/8/202291XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute業(yè)績飆升的動因2007接替率12/7/2022原油價格走勢圖(2000-2008)2008.10.31收盤$67.812008.7.11最高$147.2712/8/202292XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute原油價格走勢圖(2000-2008)2008.10.31收盤

“暴利稅”(300億)政府的重大決定(2006.3.26)《國務院關于開征石油企業(yè)收益特別金的決定》、財政部《石油收益特別金征收管理辦法》

原油價格

稅率$40-$4520%$45-$5025%$50-$5530%$55-$6035%$60以上40%12/8/202293XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute“暴利稅”(300億)政府的重大決定(2EVAvs.NI–中石油

EVA=NOPAT–ICxWACC或EVA=凈利潤-凈資產(chǎn)×資金成本率12/8/202294XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteEVAvs.NI–中石油

EVA=NOPAT–IC資本成本導致經(jīng)營業(yè)績銳減EVAvs.NI–中石化(2002)12/8/202295XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資本成本導致EVAvs.NI–中石化(2002)12/ValueCreationValueDestructionEVAvs.NI–四川長虹(2002)12/8/202296XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteValueValueEVAvs.NI–四川長虹(200CNPCvs.PC

的比較及涵義資產(chǎn)總額股東權益銷售收入稅后利潤少數(shù)股東損益2000集團股份6,5654,3203,9392,1763,4512,453197546522001集團股份6,7514,6274,0892,9063,4352,413151455832002集團股份7,3614,8314,5043,1673,7922,444236469942003集團股份8,0835,3174,9693,5664,7533,038371696802004集團股份9,1376,0995,9544,2525,7073,8867251,0291382005集團股份11,6027,7817,4755,4376,9375,5221,0611,3961672006集團股份14,0908,685n.a6,1768,6856,8901,2991,49488.2%(1,318)2007集團股份15,9909,641n.a7,15110,0078,3501,3451,43486.3%(1,238)12/8/202297XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteCNPCvs.PC的比較及涵義資產(chǎn)總額股東權益銷售收入項目名稱SinopecGroupSinopec資產(chǎn)總額6,2024,608負債及少數(shù)股東權益4,2922,744股東權益1,9101,864主營業(yè)務收入6,3425,906凈利潤105323銷售利潤率1.69%7.00%凈資產(chǎn)收益率5.49%17.32%SINOPEC少數(shù)股東損益165有何涵義？中石化集團vs.中石化股份的比較及涵義12/8/202298XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項目名稱SinopecGroupSinoPetroChinavs.ExxonMobile2006.12.312008.10.3112/8/202299XiamenNationalAccountingInstitutePetroChinavs.ExxonMobile2006PetroChinavs.ExxonMobile項目名稱200220032004200520062007銷售收入--PC--EM2,4932,0093,1042,3713,9742,9125,5223,5906,8903,6558,3503,903稅后利潤--PC--EM4741157192151,0672531,3963611,4943951,434406資產(chǎn)總額--PC--EM5,0091,5265,5701,7436,3851,9537,7812,0838,7212,1909,9412,421凈資產(chǎn)--PC--EM3,2437463,6698994,4301,0185,4371,1125,4371,1127,1511,2183.412.071.781.2412/8/2022100XiamenNationalAccountingInstitutePetroChinavs.ExxonMobile項目名稱PetroChinavs.ExxonMobile項目名稱200220032004200520062007銷售利潤率--PC--EM19.01%5.72%23.16%9.06%27.07%8.69%25.28%10.06%21.68%10.81%17.17%10.40%資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率--PC--EM0.511.360.591.450.661.580.781.780.841.710.891.70財務杠桿系數(shù)--PC--EM1.542.051.521.941.441.921.431.871.411.921.391.99凈資產(chǎn)收益率--PC--EM14.93%15.95%20.77%25.48%25.73%26.36%28.19%33.49%25.68%35.49%21.34%34.50%DebtRatio-2007PC:28%EM:50%12/8/2022101XiamenNationalAccountingInstitutePetroChinavs.ExxonMobile項目名稱

DuPont分析體系凈資產(chǎn)收益率的分解

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