DevelopmentEvaluation世界銀行經(jīng)典項目評估課程課件

Introducing

DevelopmentEvaluation

發(fā)展評估

IPDET2011Introducing

DevelopmentEvalua1WhatIsDE?

定義

Thesystematicandobjectiveassessmentofaplanned,anon-goingorcompletedproject,programorpolicy,itsdesign,implementationandresults對在實施或者完成的項目、政策的設計、實施

和結(jié)果進行系統(tǒng)的、有目的的評估Anevaluationshouldprovideinformationthatiscredibleanduseful,enablingtheincorporationoflessonslearnedintothedecision–makingprocessofbothrecipientsanddonors一個評估應該提供有用的、可信的信息，以此對捐助方和受惠方的決策提供建議。2IPDET?2011WhatIsDE?

定義ThesystKindsofEvaluations

種類Prospective---展望型assesthelikelihoodofprogramdeterminesprogramevaluabilityFormative---形成型focusonimprovedperformancebeforeandduringimplementation(project,programorpolicy)Summative---總結(jié)型focusonoutcomes(results,consequences)3IPDET?2011KindsofEvaluations

種類ProspeEvaluationandIndependence

評估和獨行性---原則Independentevaluation(OECDglossary):anevaluationcarriedoutbyentitiesandpersonsfreeofthecontrolofthoseresponsibleforthedesignandimplementationoftheevaluation評估的實施主體和人應獨立于發(fā)展評估設計和實施的人員和控制之外thecredibilityofanevaluationdependsinpartonhowindependentlyithasbeencarriedout一個評估的可信性取決于評估實施的獨立性的程度4IPDET?2011EvaluationandIndependence

評估CriteriaofEvaluationIndependence

獨立評估的標準Organizationalindependence組織機構的獨立性Behavioralindependence行為的獨立性Protectionfromexternalinfluence免于外部的影響Avoidanceofconflictsofinterest避免利益沖突5IPDET?2011CriteriaofEvaluationIndepenEvaluatorActivities

評估活動：ConsultwithmainclientandallkeystakeholdersReconstructorconstructtheoryofchangeDesigntheevaluationManageevaluationbudgetsPerformorconducttheevaluation(orcontractstafftoperformtheevaluation)IdentifystandardsforeffectivenessCollect,analyze,interpret,andreportondataandfindings6IPDET?2011EvaluatorActivities

評估活動：ConsBuildingaResults-BasedMonitoringandEvaluationSystem

建立結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測與評價體系PlanningforImprovementSelectingRealisticTargets為改善績效進行規(guī)劃——選擇切合實際的具體目標51ConductingaReadinessAssessment實施就緒度評價3SelectingKeyIndicatorstoMonitorOutcomes選擇關鍵指標監(jiān)測成效7TheRoleofEvaluations評價的作用9UsingFindings使用發(fā)現(xiàn)2AgreeingonOutcomestoMonitorandEvaluate對要監(jiān)測和評價的成效形成一致意見4BaselineDataonIndicators—WhereAreWeToday?指標的基準數(shù)據(jù)——我們現(xiàn)在處于什么情況？6MonitoringforResults結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測8ReportingFindings匯報發(fā)現(xiàn)SustainingtheM&ESystemwithintheOrganization監(jiān)測與評價體系在組織內(nèi)的持續(xù)發(fā)展10BuildingaResults-BasedMonit7ThePowerofMeasuringResults

產(chǎn)出衡量的力量/作用Ifyoudonotmeasureresults,youcannottellsuccessfromfailure如果不衡量結(jié)果，就無法區(qū)分成功與失敗Ifyoucannotseesuccess,youcannotrewardit如果看不到成功，就不能得到獎勵Ifyoucannotrewardsuccess,youareprobablyrewardingfailure如果得不到成功的獎勵，就可能會受到失敗的獎賞Ifyoucannotseesuccess,youcannotlearnfromit如果看不到成功，就無法從中汲取經(jīng)驗Ifyoucannotrecognizefailure,youcannotcorrectit如果認識不到失敗，就無法進行糾正Ifyoucandemonstrateresults,youcanwinpublicsupport如果能夠證明結(jié)果，就能贏得公眾支持8ThePowerofMeasuringResultsReasonstoDoR-BM&E

實施結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測與評價的原因Providescrucialinformationaboutpublicsectorperformance提供關于公共部門績效的重要信息Providesaviewovertimeonthestatusofaproject,program,orpolicy提供項目、計劃或政策在某段時期內(nèi)的狀態(tài)信息Promotescredibilityandpublicconfidencebyreportingontheresultsofprograms匯報計劃的結(jié)果，提高可信度，增強公眾信心Helpsformulateandjustifybudgetrequests幫助制定和論證預算要求Identifiespotentiallypromisingprograms

orpracticesbystudyingpilots通過研究試點發(fā)現(xiàn)具有潛力的計劃或做法(continuedonnextslide)(轉(zhuǎn)下頁)9ReasonstoDoR-BM&E

實施結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)Reasons:

原因:Focusesattentiononachievingoutcomesimportanttotheorganizationanditsstakeholders著重達成對組織和利益相關者具有重要意義的成果目標Providestimely,frequentinformationtostaff向工作人員提供及時且頻繁的信息Helpsestablishkeygoalsandobjectives幫助制定關鍵的長期目標和短期目標Permitsmanagerstoidentifyandtakeactiontocorrectweaknesses允許管理者發(fā)現(xiàn)并改正不足Supportsadevelopmentagendathatisshiftingtowardsgreateraccountabilityforaidlending支持促進援助貸款問責制的發(fā)展議程10Reasons:

原因:FocusesattentioResults-BasedMonitoring

結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測—定義Results-basedmonitoring(whatwecall“monitoring”)isacontinuousprocessofcollectingandanalyzinginformationtocomparingactualresultstoexpectedresultsinordertomeasure

howwellaproject,program,orpolicyisbeingimplemented結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測（簡稱“監(jiān)測”）是一個收集和分析信息的持續(xù)過程，比較實際結(jié)果和預期結(jié)果，以衡量一個項目、計劃或政策的實施好壞情況的過程。11Results-BasedMonitoring

結(jié)果導向的Results-BasedEvaluation

結(jié)果導向的評估-定義Results-basedevaluationisanassessmentofaplanned,ongoing,orcompletedinterventiontodetermineitsrelevance,efficiency,effectiveness,impact,andsustainability結(jié)果導向的評估是對計劃中的、實施中的或已經(jīng)完成的干預措施的評價，以此判定其相關性、效率、效果、影響和可持續(xù)性。12Results-BasedEvaluation

結(jié)果導向的Comparison

比較Traditional-didtheydoit傳統(tǒng)的監(jiān)測與評估Didtheymobilizetheneededinputs?Didtheyundertakeandcompletetheagreedactivities?Didtheydelivertheintendedoutputs?Results-Based-sowhat結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測與評估Whatarethegoalsoforganization?Aretheybeenachieved?Howcanachievementbeproven?13Comparison

比較Traditional-didtTenStepstoBuildingaResults-BasedM&ESystem

建立結(jié)果導向監(jiān)測與評價體系的十個步驟TenStepstoBuildingaResult14Step1:ConductingaReadinessAssessment

步驟1:實施就緒度評價PlanningforImprovementSelectingRealisticTargets為改善績效進行規(guī)劃——選擇切合實際的具體目標51ConductingaReadinessAssessment實施就緒度評價3SelectingKeyIndicatorstoMonitorOutcomes選擇關鍵指標對成效進行監(jiān)測7TheRoleofEvaluations評價的作用9UsingFindings使用發(fā)現(xiàn)2AgreeingonOutcomestoMonitorandEvaluate對要監(jiān)測與評價的成效達成統(tǒng)一意見4BaselineDataonIndicators—WhereAreWeToday?指標的基準數(shù)據(jù)——我們現(xiàn)在處于什么情況？6MonitoringforResults結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測8ReportingFindings匯報發(fā)現(xiàn)SustainingtheM&ESystemwithintheOrganization監(jiān)測與評價體系在組織內(nèi)的持續(xù)發(fā)展10Step1:ConductingaReadiness15WhatIsaReadinessAssessment?

什么是就緒度評價？---countrydrivenUniquetomanyM&EAnanalyticalframeworktoassessagivencountry’sorganizationalcapacityandpoliticalwillingnesstomonitorandevaluateitsgoalsanddevelopmentaperformance-basedframework.是一個分析框架，用于評估受援國對于評估和監(jiān)測他的目的和實施績效框架的組織能力和政治意愿。16WhatIsaReadinessAssessment8keyquestions:

高清8個問題：WhatpotentialpressuresareencouragingtheneedfortheM&Esystemwithinthepublicsectorandwhy?公共部門具有那些潛在的壓力促使需要評估和監(jiān)測體系？WhoisadvocateforanM&Esystem?誰是建立和使用監(jiān)測與評估體系的擁護者？Whatismotivatingthechampiontosupportsuchaneffort?是什么在激勵那些擁護建立和使用監(jiān)測與評估體系的人？Whowillbenefitfromthesystem?Howmuchinformationdotheyreallywant?誰會從中受益？他們到底需要多少信息？178keyquestions:

高清8個問題：178keyquestions:

8個問題：---helpidentifythebarriersandobstacles/明確評估的意義Howwillthesystemdirectlysupportbetterresourceallocationandachievementofprogramgoals?Howwilltheorganizationthechampions,andthestaffreacttonegativeinformationgeneratedbyM&Esystem?WheredoesthecapacityexisttosupportaresultedbasedM&Esystem?HowwilltheM&Esystemlinkproject,program,sectorandnationalgoal?18IPDET?20098keyquestions:

8個問題：---helpKeyQuestionsforPredictingSuccess

預測成功的關鍵問題----舉例DoesaclearmandateexistforM&E?PRSP?Law?CivilSociety?Other?監(jiān)測與評估有明確的規(guī)定嗎？減貧戰(zhàn)略文件（PRSP）、法律、民間團體或其它？Istherethepresenceofstrongleadershipatthemostseniorlevelofthegovernment?政府最高層是否有強有力的領導？Areresourceandpolicydecisionslinkedtothebudget?資源和政策決定是否與預算相關？Howreliableisinformationthatmaybeusedforpolicyandmanagementdecisionmaking?用于政策制定和管理決策的信息的可靠性如何？Howinvolvediscivilsocietyasapartnerwithgovernment?作為政府的合作方，民間團體的參與程度如何？Aretherepocketsofinnovationthatcanserveasbeginningpracticesorpilotprograms?是否存在可作為啟動實踐或試點計劃的創(chuàng)新?19KeyQuestionsforPredictingSStep2:AgreeingonPerformanceOutcomestoMonitorandEvaluate

步驟2:對監(jiān)測與評估的成效達成一致意見

PlanningforImprovementSelectingRealisticTargets為改善績效進行規(guī)劃——選擇切合實際的具體目標51ConductingaReadinessAssessment實施就緒度評價3SelectingKeyIndicatorstoMonitorOutcomes選擇關鍵指標監(jiān)測成效7TheRoleofEvaluations評價的作用9UsingFindings使用發(fā)現(xiàn)2AgreeingonOutcomestoMonitorandEvaluate要監(jiān)測與評價的成效形成一致意見4BaselineDataonIndicators—WhereAreWeToday?指標的基準數(shù)據(jù)——我們現(xiàn)在處于什么情況？6MonitoringforResults結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測8ReportingFindings匯報發(fā)現(xiàn)SustainingtheM&ESystemwithintheOrganization監(jiān)測與評價體系在組織內(nèi)的持續(xù)發(fā)展10Step2:AgreeingonPerformanc20WhyanEmphasisonOutcomes?

為什么要強調(diào)成效Makesexplicittheintendedobjectivesofgovernmentaction(“Knowwhereyouaregoingbeforeyougetmoving”)明確政府行動的預期目標(“行動之前應該先明確目標”)Outcomesarewhatproducebenefits成效帶來效益Clearlysettingoutcomesiskeytodesigningandbuildingresults-basedM&Esystem設定清晰的成效對于設計和建立結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測與評估體系至關重要Important!Budgettooutputs,managetooutcomes!重要!

針對產(chǎn)出強調(diào)預算，針對成效強調(diào)管理！21WhyanEmphasisonOutcomes?

為Outcomes:

成效:Outcomesareusuallynotdirectlymeasured—onlyreportedon通常無法對成效進行直接衡量——只須報告Outcomesmustbetranslatedtoasetofkeyindicators必須將成效轉(zhuǎn)化為一組關鍵指標Whenchoosingoutcomes,“Donotgoitalone!”–agreementiscrucial選擇成效時，“切忌一意孤行！”——取得一致意見至關重要22Outcomes:

成效:OutcomesareusuaStep3:SelectingKeyIndicatorstoMonitorOutcomes

步驟3:選擇監(jiān)測成效的關鍵指標PlanningforImprovementSelectingRealisticTargets為改善績效進行規(guī)劃——選擇切合實際的具體目標51ConductingaReadinessAssessment實施就緒度評價3SelectingKeyIndicatorstoMonitorOutcomes選擇關鍵指標監(jiān)測成效7TheRoleofEvaluations評價的作用9UsingFindings使用發(fā)現(xiàn)2AgreeingonOutcomestoMonitorandEvaluate對要監(jiān)測與評價的成效形成一致意見4BaselineDataonIndicators—WhereAreWeToday?指標的基準數(shù)據(jù)——我們現(xiàn)在處于什么情況？6MonitoringforResults結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測8ReportingFindings匯報發(fā)現(xiàn)SustainingtheM&ESystemwithintheOrganization監(jiān)測與評價體系在組織內(nèi)的持續(xù)發(fā)展10Step3:SelectingKeyIndicato23Indicators

指標Aspecificmeasure(orsetofdata)thatindicatesprogress(ornot)towardaspecifictarget用來表明特定目標實現(xiàn)進展（或偏離情況）的一種具體的測量方法（或一組數(shù)據(jù)）Indicatorsasksthequestion:Howwillweknowsuccesswhenweseeit?指標提出這樣一個問題：當我們看到成功時如何得知這就是成功？24Indicators

指標AspecificmeasurIndicatorDevelopment

指標開發(fā)“CREAM”Claer清晰Relevant相關Economic經(jīng)濟Adequate充足Monitorable可監(jiān)測25IndicatorDevelopment

指標開發(fā)“CREMatrixforSelectingIndicators

指標選擇矩陣Indicator指標Datacollectionmethod數(shù)據(jù)收集方法Frequency&costtocollect收集頻率和成本W(wǎng)howillanalyzeandreportdata?誰負責分析和匯報數(shù)據(jù)Whowillcollectdata?誰負責收集數(shù)據(jù)Whowillusethedata?誰將使用數(shù)據(jù)Difficultytocollect收集的難度Datasource數(shù)據(jù)來源1.2.3.

26MatrixforSelectingIndicatorDevelopingIndicators

指標的建立Developyourownindicatorstomeetyourneeds建立滿足自己需要的指標Developinggoodindicatorsusuallytakesmorethanonetry建立好的指標通常要進行多次嘗試Arrivingatfinalindicatorswilltaketime建立出最終的指標要花費一定的時間Stateallindicatorsneutrally–not“increasein…”or“decreasein…”用中性詞語描述所有的指標，而非“在……增長了……”或“在……下降了……”之類的表達Pilot,Pilot,andPilot!試點，試點，再試點！27DevelopingIndicators

指標的建立DevDevelopingSetofOutcomeIndicatorsforOnePolicyArea:Education

為教育這一政策領域開發(fā)一套成效指標1.%ofGrade6studentsscoring70%orbetteronstandardizedmathandsciencetests1.六年級學生在標準化的數(shù)學和自然科學考試中得到70分或以上成績的人數(shù)比例2.%ofGrade6studentsscoringhigheronstandardizedmathandsciencetestsincomparisontobaselinedata2.六年級學生在標準化的數(shù)學和自然科學考試中成績高于基準數(shù)據(jù)的人數(shù)比例1.%ofeligibleurbanchildrenenrolledinpre-schooleducation

1.城市適齡兒童接受學前教育的比例2.%ofeligibleruralchildrenenrolledinpre-schooleducation2.農(nóng)村適齡兒童接受學前教育的比例Targets:具體目標:

Baselines:基準:Indicators:指標:Outcomes:成效:2.Primaryschoollearningoutcomesforchildrenareimproved2.提高兒童小學學習的成效1.Nationschildrenhaveimprovedaccesstopre-schoolprograms1.使全國有更多的兒童加入學前教育計劃28DevelopingSetofOutcomeIndiStep4:GatheringBaselineDataonIndicators

步驟4:收集指標的基準數(shù)據(jù)PlanningforImprovementSelectingRealisticTargets為改善績效進行規(guī)劃——選擇切合實際的具體目標51ConductingaReadinessAssessment實施就緒度評價3SelectingKeyIndicatorstoMonitorOutcomes選擇關鍵指標監(jiān)測成效7TheRoleofEvaluations評價的作用9UsingFindings使用發(fā)現(xiàn)2AgreeingonOutcomestoMonitorandEvaluate對要監(jiān)測和評價的成效形成一致意見4BaselineDataonIndicators—WhereAreWeToday?指標的基準數(shù)據(jù)——我們現(xiàn)在處于什么情況？6MonitoringforResults結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測8ReportingFindings匯報發(fā)現(xiàn)SustainingtheM&ESystemWithintheOrganization監(jiān)測與評價體系在組織內(nèi)的持續(xù)發(fā)展10Step4:GatheringBaselineDat29BaselineDataand

Sources

基準數(shù)據(jù)及來源Baselinedata:Measurementtofindoutwherearewetoday?基準數(shù)據(jù)：明確我們現(xiàn)在處于什么情況的測量結(jié)果Primarysource::gatheredspecificallyfortheproject主要來源：專門為項目收集的數(shù)據(jù)Secondarysource::collectedforanotherpurpose,butcanbeusedfrom:withinorganization,government,internationaldatasources,etc.cansavemoneybutbecarefultoensurethatitistrulytheinformationyouneed次要來源：為其它目的收集的數(shù)據(jù)，但也可以使用來源：組織內(nèi)部、政府和國際數(shù)據(jù)來源等可以節(jié)約資金，但要注意確保這些信息是你真正需要的30BaselineDataandSources

基準數(shù)PossibleSources

可能的數(shù)據(jù)來源Writtenrecords書面記錄Individualsinvolvedwiththeintervention參與干預措施的個人Thegeneralpublic公眾Trainedobservers訓練有素的觀察員Mechanicalmeasurements機械測量Geographicalinformationsystem地理信息系統(tǒng)31PossibleSources

可能的數(shù)據(jù)來源WritteConversation

with

concerned

individuals與相關人員交談CommunityInterviews社區(qū)訪談Field

visits實地調(diào)研Reviewsofofficialrecords(MISandadmindata)查閱官方數(shù)據(jù)

(管理信息系統(tǒng)和管理數(shù)據(jù))Participant

Observation參與式觀察Keyinformant

interviews與關鍵知情者面談FocusGroupInterviews焦點組訪談Questionnaires問卷調(diào)查PanelSurveys專門小組調(diào)查Census統(tǒng)計調(diào)查Field

experiments現(xiàn)場試驗

Informal/LessStructuredMethods非正式性/結(jié)構性較差的方法

MoreStructured/FormalMethods更具結(jié)構性/正式的方法One-Time

Survey一次性調(diào)查Direct

observation直接觀察32Field

visitsParticipant

ObserComparisonofmajordatacollectionmethods

主要數(shù)據(jù)收集方法的比較CharacteristicReviewofprogramrecordSelf-administeredquestionnaire自行操作的interviewRatingbytrainedobservercostlowmoderateModeratetohighDependsonavailabilityoflowcostobserversAmountoftrainingrequiredfordatacollectorssomeNonetosomeModeratetohighModeratetohighCompletiontimeDependsonamountofdataneededmoderatemoderateShorttomoderateResponserate響應速度High,ifrecordscontainneededdataDependsonhowdistributedGenerallymoderatetogoodhigh33IPDET?2009ComparisonofmajordatacolleContinuingExample,DevelopingBaselineDataforOnePolicyArea:Education

開發(fā)基準數(shù)據(jù)：以教育為例1。47%in2002scored70%orbetterinmath.50%in2002scored70%orbetter

1.2002年在數(shù)學和自然科學考試中取得70分或以上成績的學生比例分別為47%和50%2.Mean%scorein2002forGrad6studentsformathwas68%,and53%forscience2.2002年六年級學生數(shù)學和自然科學平均成績分別為68分和53分1.75%urbanin1999

1.1999年城市兒童接受學前教育的比例為75%2.40%ruralin2000

2.2000年農(nóng)村兒童接受學前教育的比例為40%1.%ofGrade6studentsscoring70%orbetteronstandardizedmathandsciencetests1。六年級學生在標準化的數(shù)學和自然科學考試中得到70分或以上成績的人數(shù)比例2.%ofGrade6studentsscoringhigheronstandardizedmathandsciencetestsincomparisontobaselinedata2.六年級學生在標準化的數(shù)學和自然科學考試中成績高于基準數(shù)據(jù)的人數(shù)比例1.%ofeligibleurbanchildrenenrolledinpre-schooleducation

1.城市適齡兒童接受學前教育的比例2.%ofeligibleruralchildrenenrolledinpre-schooleducation2.農(nóng)村適齡兒童接受學前教育的比例Targets:具體目標:Baselines:基準:Indicators:指標:Outcomes:成效:2.Primaryschoollearningoutcomesforchildrenareimproved2.提高兒童小學學習的成效1.Nationschildrenhaveimprovedaccesstopre-schoolprograms1.使全國有更多的兒童加入學前教育計劃34ContinuingExample,DevelopingStep5:PlanningforImprovements—SettingRealisticTargets

步驟5:為改善績效進行規(guī)劃

——設定切合實際的具體目標PlanningforImprovementSelectingRealisticTargets為改善績效進行規(guī)劃——選擇切合實際的具體目標51ConductingaReadinessAssessment實施就緒度評價3SelectingKeyIndicatorstoMonitorOutcomes選擇關鍵指標監(jiān)測成效7TheRoleofEvaluations評價的作用9UsingFindings使用發(fā)現(xiàn)2AgreeingonOutcomestoMonitorandEvaluate對要監(jiān)測和評價的成效形成一致意見4BaselineDataonIndicators—WhereAreWeToday?指標的基準數(shù)據(jù)——我們現(xiàn)在處于什么情況？6MonitoringforResults結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測8ReportingFindings匯報發(fā)現(xiàn)SustainingtheM&ESystemWithintheOrganization監(jiān)測與評價體系在組織內(nèi)的持續(xù)發(fā)展10Step5:PlanningforImproveme35Targets:

具體目標:---量化Atargetisaspecifiedobjectivethatindicatesthenumber,timingandlocationofthatwhichistoberealized.特定的目標，表面需要實現(xiàn)的數(shù)量、時機、位置。36Targets:

具體目標:---量化AtargetisIdentifyingExpectedorDesiredLevelofImprovementRequiresTargets

需要具體目標來確定期望或理想的改善程度Baseline

Indicator

Level指標的基準水平Desired

Levelof

Improvement預計的改善水平Assumesa

finiteand

expectedlevelofinputs,activities,andoutputs假設投入、活動和產(chǎn)出的期望水平是給定的Target

Performance具體的績效目標Desiredlevelofperformancetobereachedwithinaspecifictime特定時期內(nèi)所要達到的預定績效水平+=37IdentifyingExpectedorDesireCaution:

請注意:Ittakestimetoobservetheeffectsofimprovements,therefore:BerealisticwhensettingtargetsAvoidpromisingtoomuchandthusprogrammingyourselftofail需要一定時間才能看到改進效果，因此：設定具體目標時要切合實際避免過多承諾，以免使自己陷于失敗38Caution:

請注意:IttakestimetoContinuingExample,SettingPerformanceTargetsforOnePolicyArea:Education

設定具體目標：以教育為例1.80%by2006inmath-7%by20061.2006年之前在數(shù)學和自然科學考試取得70分或以上成績的學生比例要分別達到80%和70%2.MeanMathtestscorein2006is78%--meansciencescorein2006is65%2.2006年數(shù)學和自然科學平均成績分別要達到78分和65分1.85%urbanin20061.2006年城市兒童接受學前教育的比例要達到85%2.60%ruralin20062.2006年農(nóng)村兒童接受學前教育的比例要達到60%1.47%in2002scored70%orbetterinmath.50%in2002scored70%orbetter1.2002年在數(shù)學和自然科學考試中取得70分或以上成績的學生比例分別為47%和50%2.Mean%scorein2002forGrad6studentsformathwas68%,and53%forscience2.2002年六年級學生數(shù)學和自然科學平均成績分別為68分和53分1.75%urbanin19991.1999年城市兒童接受學前教育的比例為75%2.40%ruralin2000

2.2000年農(nóng)村兒童接受學前教育的比例為40%1.%ofGrade6studentsscoring70%orbetteronstandardizedmathandsciencetests1.六年級學生在標準化的數(shù)學和自然科學考試中得到70分或以上成績的人數(shù)比例2.%ofGrade6studentsscoringhigheronstandardizedmathandsciencetestsincomparisontobaselinedata2.六年級學生在標準化的數(shù)學和自然科學考試中成績高于基準數(shù)據(jù)的人數(shù)比例1.%ofeligibleurbanchildrenenrolledinpre-schooleducation

1.城市適齡兒童接受學前教育的比例2.%ofeligibleruralchildrenenrolledinpre-schooleducation2.農(nóng)村適齡兒童接受學前教育的比例

Targets:具體目標:

Baselines:基準:Indicators:指標:Outcomes:成效:2.Primaryschoollearningoutcomesforchildrenareimproved2.提高兒童小學學習的成效1.

Nationschildrenhaveimprovedaccesstopre-schoolprograms1.使全國有更多的兒童加入學前教育計劃39ContinuingExample,SettingPeStep6:MonitoringforResults

步驟6:結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測PlanningforImprovementSelectingRealisticTargets為改善績效進行規(guī)劃——選擇切合實際的具體目標51ConductingaReadinessAssessment實施就緒度評價3SelectingKeyIndicatorstoMonitorOutcomes選擇關鍵指標監(jiān)測成效7TheRoleofEvaluations評價的作用9UsingFindings使用發(fā)現(xiàn)2AgreeingonOutcomestoMonitorandEvaluate對要監(jiān)測和評價的成效形成一致意見4BaselineDataonIndicators—WhereAreWeToday?指標的基準數(shù)據(jù)——我們現(xiàn)在處于什么情況？6MonitoringforResults結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測8ReportingFindings匯報發(fā)現(xiàn)SustainingtheM&ESystemWithintheOrganization監(jiān)測與評價體系在組織內(nèi)的持續(xù)發(fā)展10Step6:MonitoringforResults40Results-BasedMonitoring

結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測Results-basedmonitoring(whatwecall“monitoring”)isacontinuousprocessofcollectingandanalyzinginformationtocomparingactualresultstoexpectedresultsinordertomeasure

howwellaproject,program,orpolicyisbeingimplemented結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測（簡稱“監(jiān)測”）是一個收集和分析信息的持續(xù)過程，比較實際結(jié)果和預期結(jié)果，以衡量一個項目、計劃或政策的實施好壞情況的過程。41IPDET?2009Results-BasedMonitoring

結(jié)果導向的Results-BasedEvaluation

結(jié)果導向的評估Results-basedevaluationisanassessmentofaplanned,ongoing,orcompletedinterventiontodetermineitsrelevance,efficiency,effectiveness,impact,andsustainability結(jié)果導向的評價是對計劃中的、實施中的或已經(jīng)完成的干預措施的評價，以此判定其相關性、效率、效果、影響和可持續(xù)性。42IPDET?2009Results-BasedEvaluation

結(jié)果導向的DifferencebetweenResults-BasedMonitoringandEvaluation

結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測和評價之間的區(qū)別Monitoringisfocusedontrackingevidenceofmovementtowardstheachievementofspecific,predeterminedtargets.監(jiān)測注重于跟蹤取得預定的具體目標的進展證據(jù)。Evaluationtakesabroaderviewofanintervention,consideringnotonlyprogresstowardstatedgoals,butalsothelogicoftheinitiative,aswellasitsconsequences.評價對干預措施進行更廣泛的考量，不僅考慮實現(xiàn)預定目標的進展情況，還考慮措施的邏輯及其后果。Bothareneededtobeabletobettermanagepolicy,program,andproject為能更好地管理政策、計劃和項目，二者都需要。43DifferencebetweenResults-BasKeyTypesofMonitoring

監(jiān)測的主要類型ResultsMonitoring結(jié)果監(jiān)測

ImplementationMonitoring

(MeansandStrategies)實施情況監(jiān)測

(手段和策略)Outcomes成效Impacts/goal影響Results結(jié)果Inputs投入Activities活動Outputs產(chǎn)出Implementation實施情況LongtermIntermediateeffect44KeyTypesofMonitoring

監(jiān)測的主要類SuccessfulMonitoringSystems

成功的監(jiān)測體系Tobesuccessful,everymonitoringsystemneedsthefollowing:每個成功的監(jiān)測體系都需要：Ownership所有權Management管理Maintenance維護Credibility可信度45SuccessfulMonitoringSystems

Step7:TheRoleofEvaluations

步驟7:評估的作用PlanningforImprovementSelectingRealisticTargets為改善績效進行規(guī)劃——選擇切合實際的具體目標51ConductingaReadinessAssessment實施就緒度評價3SelectingKeyIndicatorstoMonitorOutcomes選擇關鍵指標監(jiān)測成效7TheRoleofEvaluations評估的作用9UsingFindings使用發(fā)現(xiàn)2AgreeingonOutcomestoMonitorandEvaluate對要監(jiān)測和評價的成效形成一致意見4BaselineDataonIndicators—WhereAreWeToday?指標的基準數(shù)據(jù)——我們現(xiàn)在處于什么情況？6MonitoringforResults結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測8ReportingFindings匯報發(fā)現(xiàn)SustainingtheM&ESystemWithintheOrganization監(jiān)測與評價體系在組織內(nèi)的持續(xù)發(fā)展10Step7:TheRoleofEvaluation46EvaluationMeansInfoon:

評估提供下列信息：Strategy戰(zhàn)略Whetherwearedoingtherightthings我們是否在做正確的事Rationale/justification原理/理由Cleartheoryofchange清晰的變革理論Operation操作Whetherwearedoingthingsright我們是否在正確地做事Effectivenessinachievingexpectedoutcomes達到預期成效方面的效果Efficiencyinoptimizingresources優(yōu)化資源方面的效率Clientsatisfaction客戶滿意度Learning學習Whethertherearebetterwaysofdoingit是否有更好的方法Alternatives替代方法Bestpractices最佳實踐Lessonslearned經(jīng)驗教訓47EvaluationMeansInfoon:

評估提供BriefIntroductiontoTheoryofChange

變革理論簡述Theoryofchangeisarepresentationofhowanorganizationorinitiativeisexpectedtoleadtotheresultsandidentificationofunderlyingassumptionsbeingmade.變革理論體現(xiàn)了一個組織或一項倡議是如何按照預期計劃產(chǎn)生結(jié)果的并確定背后的基本假設。48BriefIntroductiontoTheoryoWhyUseaTheoryofChange

為什么要使用理論變革

Visuallyshowshowtheinterventionissupposedtoworkandflawsinlogic直觀地體現(xiàn)計劃的干預的邏輯流程。Assumptionsandpotentialinfluencesidentifiedmayindicateriskstotheachievementofintendedresults假定的、潛在影響能夠明確實現(xiàn)預期結(jié)果的風險。Providesquestionsforanevaluation為評估提出問題Helpsbuildacommonunderstandingoftheinterventionandexpectationsamongstakeholders幫助利益各方對干預和預期建立一個普遍認識。49IPDET?2011WhyUseaTheoryofChange

為什么ConstructingaTheoryofChangeWhatknowledgeunderliestheintervention?Whatisthelogicoftheintervention?Whatarethekeyassumptionsbeingmade?Whatarepotentialinfluencesoperatinginthecontextoftheintervention?50IPDET?2011ConstructingaTheoryofChangResultsChain

結(jié)果鏈條Inputs(Resources)ActivitiesOutputsOutcomes

(Intervening)

Outcomes

Impacts

(LongerTermGoal)AreaofControlInternaltotheOrganizationOutputsReachDirectBeneficiariesAreaofInfluenceExternaltotheOrganizationExternalFactors51ResultsChain

結(jié)果鏈條Inputs(ResoTheoryofChangeModel–舉例

TrainingHighQualityEvaluationsUsefulInformationBetterDecisionsBytrainingWeshouldget

betterdecisions52TheoryofChangeModel–舉例TrStep8:ReportingFindings

步驟8:匯報發(fā)現(xiàn)PlanningforImprovementSelectingRealisticTargets為改善績效進行規(guī)劃——選擇切合實際的具體目標51ConductingaReadinessAssessment實施就緒度評價3SelectingKeyIndicatorstoMonitorOutcomes選擇關鍵指標監(jiān)測成效7TheRoleofEvaluations評價的作用9UsingFindings使用發(fā)現(xiàn)2AgreeingonOutcomestoMonitorandEvaluate對要監(jiān)測和評價的成效形成一致意見4BaselineDataonIndicators—WhereAreWeToday?指標的基準數(shù)據(jù)——我們現(xiàn)在處于什么情況？6MonitoringforResults結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測8ReportingFindings匯報發(fā)現(xiàn)SustainingtheM&ESystemWithintheOrganization監(jiān)測與評價體系在組織內(nèi)的持續(xù)發(fā)展10Step8:ReportingFindings

步驟53AnalyzingandReportingData

數(shù)據(jù)的分析與匯報Givesinformationonthestatusofprojects,programs,andpolicies提供項目、計劃和政策的狀態(tài)信息Providescluestoproblems提供問題線索Createsopportunitiestoconsiderimprovementsinthe(projects,programs,orpolicy)implementationstrategies為考慮改進（項目、計劃或政策）實施策略創(chuàng)造機會Providesimportantinformationovertimeontrendsanddirections提供某段時間內(nèi)發(fā)展趨勢和方向方面的重要信息Helpsconfirmorchallengetheoryofchangebehindtheproject,programorpolicy幫助確證或質(zhì)疑項目、計劃或政策背后的變革理論54AnalyzingandReportingData

數(shù)PresentingData

呈報數(shù)據(jù)Presentmostimportantdataonly只呈報最重要的數(shù)據(jù)Useanappendixoraseparatereportfordetailedtechnicaldata使用附件或單獨報告來呈報詳細的技術數(shù)據(jù)Usevisualpresentations(charts,graphs,maps)toillustrateandhighlightkeypoints使用有形的呈報形式（圖表、圖形、地圖）來說明和突出關鍵數(shù)據(jù)Avoid“datadumps”避免出現(xiàn)“數(shù)據(jù)傾倒”55PresentingData

呈報數(shù)據(jù)PresentmoStep9:UsingFindings

步驟9:使用發(fā)現(xiàn)PlanningforImprovementSelectingRealisticTargets為改善績效進行規(guī)劃——選擇切合實際的具體目標51ConductingaReadinessAssessment實施就緒度評價3SelectingKeyIndicatorstoMonitorOutcomes選擇關鍵指標監(jiān)測成效7TheRoleofEvaluations評價的作用9UsingFindings使用發(fā)現(xiàn)2AgreeingonOutcomestoMonitorandEvaluate對要監(jiān)測和評價的成效形成一致意見4BaselineDataonIndicators—WhereAreWeToday?指標的基準數(shù)據(jù)——我們現(xiàn)在處于什么情況？6MonitoringforResults結(jié)果導向的監(jiān)測8ReportingFindings匯報發(fā)現(xiàn)SustainingtheM&ESystemWithintheOrganization監(jiān)測與評價體系在組織內(nèi)的持續(xù)發(fā)展10Step9:UsingFindings

步驟9:使56TenUsesofResultsFindings

結(jié)果的10個用途Respondstoelectedofficials’andthepublic’sdemandsforaccountability回應官員和公眾對問責機制的要求Helpsformulateandjustifybudgetrequests幫助制定和論證預算要求Helpsinmakingoperationalresourceallocationdecisions幫助進行可用資源分配決策Triggersin-depthexaminationsofwhatperformanceproblemsexistandwhatcorrectionsareneeded引發(fā)對存在的績效問題和所需的改進進行深入研究Helpsmotivatepersonneltocontinuemakingprogramimprovements有助于激勵工作人員對計劃進行持續(xù)性改進(continuedonnextslide)(轉(zhuǎn)下頁)57TenUsesofResultsFindings

結(jié)TenUsesofResultsFindings(cont.)

結(jié)果的10個用途(續(xù))Monitorstheperformanceofcontractorsandgrantees監(jiān)測訂約人和受讓人的績效Providesdataforspecial,in-depthprogramevaluations向特殊而深入的計劃評價提供數(shù)據(jù)Helpsprovideservicesmoreefficiently更有效地提供服務Supportsstrategicandotherlong-termplanningefforts(byprovidingbaselineinformationandlatertrackingprogress)（通過提供基準信息和事后進展跟蹤）加大戰(zhàn)略性的和其它長期性的規(guī)劃力度Communicatesbetterwiththepublictobuildpublictrust更好地與公眾進行溝通，從而建立公眾信任58TenUsesofResultsFindings(NineStrategiesforSharingInformation

信息共享的九個策略Empowerthemedia授權媒體Enact“FreedomofInformation”legislation制定“信息自由”法InstituteE-government建立電子政務系統(tǒng)Addinformationoninternalandexternalinternetsites在內(nèi)部和外部網(wǎng)站上增添信息Publishannualbudgetreports發(fā)布年度預算報告Engagecivilsocietyandcitizengroups使民間團體和市民群體參與進來Strengthenparliamentaryov