財務策劃步驟和方法課件

1FinancialPlanningandForecasting1FinancialPlanningandForeca2FinancialPlansFinancialplansevaluatetheeconomicsbehindthestrategyandoperations.Theyconsistofsixsteps:Projectedfinancialstatements:toanalyzetheeffectsoftheoperatingplanonprojectedprofitsandfinancialratios.Determinethefundsneededtosupporttheplan.Forecastfundsavailability.Establishandmaintainasystemofcontrolstogoverntheallocationanduseoffundswithinthefirm.DevelopproceduresforadjustingthebasicplaniftheeconomicforecastsuponwhichtheplanwasbaseddonotmaterializeEstablishaperformance-basedmanagementcompensationsystem.2FinancialPlansFinancialplan3SalesForecastSalesforecastsareusuallybasedontheanalysisofhistoricdata.Anaccuratesaleforecastiscriticaltothefirm’sprofitability:Under-optimisticToomuchinventoryand/orfixedassetsLowturnoverratioHighcostofdepreciationandstorageWrite-offsofobsoleteinventoryLowprofitLowrateofreturnonequityLowfreecashflowDepressedstockpriceOver-optimisticCompanywillfailtomeetdemandMarketsharewillbelostSalesForecast3SalesForecastSalesforecasts4ThePercentofSalesMethodThisisthemostcommonmethod,whichbeginswiththesalesforecastexpressedasanannualgrowthrateindollarsalerevenue.Manyitemsonthebalancesheetandincomestatementareassumedtochangeproportionallywithsales.4ThePercentofSalesMethodTh5ThePercentofSalesMethod:AnExample*Denotesspontaneous,whichmeansincreasespontaneouslywithsales.Allassetsarespontaneous.Ontheliabilityandequityside,AccountsPayableandAccrualsaretheonlyspontaneousfunds.Duringthenextyear,salesincreaseby15%resultingina15%increaseinTotalAssets(4,374).Hence,theassetsideonnextyear’sbalancesheetmustgoupby15%.Also,thespontaneousfundsontheliabilitysidemustalsoincreaseby15%.5ThePercentofSalesMethod:6Example(cont’d):Thespontaneousitemsontheliabilitiessideoftheprojectedbalancesheetmustalsoincreaseby15%.6Example(cont’d):Thespontane7Example(cont’d):7Example(cont’d):8Example(cont’d):Retainedearningswillalsoincreasebutnotatthesamerateassales.The2002amountofREistheoldamountplustheadditiontoretainedearnings,whichwecalculatedintheprojectedincomestatement.SincetheTA=TLandtheTAhaveincreasedto33,534,whileTLhaveincreasedto31,406,thereareadditionalfundsneeded(AFN)of2,128ontheliabilitiesside.8Example(cont’d):Retainedear9Example(cont’d):TherearetwocategoriesofsourcesfortheAFN:Issuanceofnewstocks(equity)UsesomecombinationofdebtInthisexample,thereareinternallygeneratedfundsfrom:RetainedEarningsAccountsPayableandAccruals9Example(cont’d):Therearetw10Example(cont’d):10Example(cont’d):11FinancingFeedbacksIfthebusinessissuesnewdebtandcommonstock,thetotalamountofinterestanddividendspaidwillchange.Becauseinterestanddividendsmustbepaidwithcash,anyincreaseinthesecostswilldecreasethefundsthefirmhastoinvest—thatis,theamountofincomeaddedtoretainedearningswillbelessthanoriginallyforecasted.Whenweconsidertheeffectsoftheincreasedinterestanddividendpayments,wefindthattheAFNisactuallygreaterthanoriginallyexpected.Financingfeedbacks—thatis,theeffectsonthefinancialstatementsofactionstakentofinanceforecastedincreasesinassets—mustbeconsideredtodeterminetheexactamountofAFN.11FinancingFeedbacksIfthebu12Example(cont’d):Borrowat10%(NotesPayable).Itmeansthatnextyeartheinterestwillbe 560+(10%*2,128)Insteadofretaining1,166,thecompanyretains1,096becauseoftheinterest.Theendresultsisthatthecompanyhastoraise 2,128+70=219812Example(cont’d):Borrowat113TheAFNFormulaIntheformula,wecanuseeitheryear(2001or2002)numberstoarriveatthefinalresult.*AreferstotheTotalAssets.*Lreferstothesumofallspontaneousliabilities(AccountsPayableandAccruals).70AFN13TheAFNFormulaIntheformul14StepsinFinancialForecastingForecastsalesProjecttheassetsneededtosupportsalesProjectinternallygeneratedfundsProjectoutsidefundsneededDecidehowtoraisefundsSeeeffectsofplanonratiosandstockprice14StepsinFinancialForecasti15ForecastingsalesReviewpastsales(fivetotenyears).Youcanuseaveragegrowthratebutitmaynotgiveyouacorrectestimate.Useregressionslopetocomputegrowthrate.Considerchangesineconomy,marketconditions,etc.Impropersalesforecastcanleadtoseriousfinancialplanningissues.15ForecastingsalesReviewpast16Aftersalesforecasting,whatisnext?ForecasttheCOGS(acertain%ofsales).Inventorynumberswillchangewithsales.A/R(considercreditpolicychanges)willchangeandsowillA/R.Accordingly,cashandcashequivalentswillchange.16Aftersalesforecasting,wha17SalesforecastingandlongertermassetsandliabilitiesDotheyneedtobechangedaswellalongwithsales?Depends.Existingproductioncapacityrelativetothenewsalesprojections.17Salesforecastingandlonger18ReadytopreparetheincomestatementStartwithforecastedsalesProjecttheCOGSAssumingchangesinlongertermassetsandliabilities,forecastdepreciationandinterestexpenses(assumptionsrequiredforinterestrates/COC,etc.)ComputeEBIT.18Readytopreparetheincome19ReadytopreparetheBalanceSheetDeterminethenewlevelofassets(bothshort-termandlongerterm).Separatethemasoperatingassetsandlongtermassets.Forecastliabilities(currentaswellaslongerterm).Isanycommonstockorpreferredstocktobeissued?Ifso,takeintoaccountthechangesinthesenumbers.19ReadytopreparetheBalance20AdditionalfundsneededForecastedassetsandliabilitiesmaynotperfectlymatch.ThedifferenceisbecauseofAFNoradditionalfundsneeded.AFNistherequiredassetsminusthespecifiedsourcesoffinancing.20AdditionalfundsneededForec21HowwouldincreasesintheseitemsaffecttheAFN?Highersales:Increasesassetrequirements,increasesAFN.Higherdividendpayoutratio:Reducesfundsavailableinternally,increasesAFN.(More…)21Howwouldincreasesinthese22HowwouldincreasesintheseitemsaffecttheAFN?Higherprofitmargin:Increasesfundsavailableinternally,decreasesAFN.Highercapitalintensityratio,A*/S0:Increasesassetrequirements,increasesAFN.Paysupplierssooner:Decreasesspontaneousliabilities,increasesAFN.22Howwouldincreasesinthese23ProjectingProFormaStatementswiththePercentofSalesMethodProjectsalesbasedonforecastedgrowthrateinsalesForecastsomeitemsasapercentoftheforecastedsalesCostsCashAccountsreceivable(More...)23ProjectingProFormaStateme24Itemsaspercentofsales(Continued...)InventoriesNetfixedassetsAccountspayableandaccrualsChooseotheritemsDebtDividendpolicy(whichdeterminesretainedearnings)Commonstock24Itemsaspercentofsales(C25SourcesofFinancingNeededtoSupportAssetRequirementsGiventhepreviousassumptionsandchoices,wecanestimate:RequiredassetstosupportsalesSpecifiedsourcesoffinancingAdditionalfundsneeded(AFN)is:Requiredassetsminusspecifiedsourcesoffinancing25SourcesofFinancingNeeded26ImplicationsofAFNIfAFNispositive,thenyoumustsecureadditionalfinancing.IfAFNisnegative,thenyouhavemorefinancingthanisneeded.Payoffdebt.Buybackstock.Buyshort-terminvestments.26ImplicationsofAFNIfAFNis27HowtoForecastInterestExpenseInterestexpenseisactuallybasedonthedailybalanceofdebtduringtheyear.Therearethreewaystoapproximateinterestexpense.Baseiton:DebtatendofyearDebtatbeginningofyearAverageofbeginningandendingdebtMore…27HowtoForecastInterestExp28BasingInterestExpenseonDebtatEndofYearWillover-estimateinterestexpenseifdebtisaddedthroughouttheyearinsteadofallonJanuary1.Causescircularitycalledfinancialfeedback:moredebtcausesmoreinterest,whichreducesnetincome,whichreducesretainedearnings,whichcausesmoredebt,etc.More…28BasingInterestExpenseonD29BasingInterestExpenseonDebtatBeginningofYearWillunder-estimateinterestexpenseifdebtisaddedthroughouttheyearinsteadofallonDecember31.Butdoesn’tcauseproblemofcircularity.More…29BasingInterestExpenseonD30BasingInterestExpenseonAverageofBeginningandEndingDebtWillaccuratelyestimatetheinterestpaymentsifdebtisaddedsmoothlythroughouttheyear.Buthasproblemofcircularity.More…30BasingInterestExpenseonA31EquationAFNversusProFormaAFNEquationmethodassumesaconstantprofitmargin.Proformamethodismoreflexible.Moreimportant,itallowsdifferentitemstogrowatdifferentrates.31EquationAFNversusProForm32Summary:HowdifferentfactorsaffecttheAFNforecast.Excesscapacity:lowersAFN.Economiesofscale:leadstoless-than-proportionalassetincreases.Lumpyassets:leadstolargeperiodicAFNrequirements,recurringexcesscapacity.32Summary:Howdifferentfacto33EconomicValueAdded(EVA)EVA=(OperatingIncome)x(1-T) -WACCx(CapitalEmployed)ChangesinRatiosPerformanceDebtRiskwillleadtochangesinEVA.33EconomicValueAdded(EVA)EV演講完畢，謝謝觀看！演講完畢，謝謝觀看！35FinancialPlanningandForecasting1FinancialPlanningandForeca36FinancialPlansFinancialplansevaluatetheeconomicsbehindthestrategyandoperations.Theyconsistofsixsteps:Projectedfinancialstatements:toanalyzetheeffectsoftheoperatingplanonprojectedprofitsandfinancialratios.Determinethefundsneededtosupporttheplan.Forecastfundsavailability.Establishandmaintainasystemofcontrolstogoverntheallocationanduseoffundswithinthefirm.DevelopproceduresforadjustingthebasicplaniftheeconomicforecastsuponwhichtheplanwasbaseddonotmaterializeEstablishaperformance-basedmanagementcompensationsystem.2FinancialPlansFinancialplan37SalesForecastSalesforecastsareusuallybasedontheanalysisofhistoricdata.Anaccuratesaleforecastiscriticaltothefirm’sprofitability:Under-optimisticToomuchinventoryand/orfixedassetsLowturnoverratioHighcostofdepreciationandstorageWrite-offsofobsoleteinventoryLowprofitLowrateofreturnonequityLowfreecashflowDepressedstockpriceOver-optimisticCompanywillfailtomeetdemandMarketsharewillbelostSalesForecast3SalesForecastSalesforecasts38ThePercentofSalesMethodThisisthemostcommonmethod,whichbeginswiththesalesforecastexpressedasanannualgrowthrateindollarsalerevenue.Manyitemsonthebalancesheetandincomestatementareassumedtochangeproportionallywithsales.4ThePercentofSalesMethodTh39ThePercentofSalesMethod:AnExample*Denotesspontaneous,whichmeansincreasespontaneouslywithsales.Allassetsarespontaneous.Ontheliabilityandequityside,AccountsPayableandAccrualsaretheonlyspontaneousfunds.Duringthenextyear,salesincreaseby15%resultingina15%increaseinTotalAssets(4,374).Hence,theassetsideonnextyear’sbalancesheetmustgoupby15%.Also,thespontaneousfundsontheliabilitysidemustalsoincreaseby15%.5ThePercentofSalesMethod:40Example(cont’d):Thespontaneousitemsontheliabilitiessideoftheprojectedbalancesheetmustalsoincreaseby15%.6Example(cont’d):Thespontane41Example(cont’d):7Example(cont’d):42Example(cont’d):Retainedearningswillalsoincreasebutnotatthesamerateassales.The2002amountofREistheoldamountplustheadditiontoretainedearnings,whichwecalculatedintheprojectedincomestatement.SincetheTA=TLandtheTAhaveincreasedto33,534,whileTLhaveincreasedto31,406,thereareadditionalfundsneeded(AFN)of2,128ontheliabilitiesside.8Example(cont’d):Retainedear43Example(cont’d):TherearetwocategoriesofsourcesfortheAFN:Issuanceofnewstocks(equity)UsesomecombinationofdebtInthisexample,thereareinternallygeneratedfundsfrom:RetainedEarningsAccountsPayableandAccruals9Example(cont’d):Therearetw44Example(cont’d):10Example(cont’d):45FinancingFeedbacksIfthebusinessissuesnewdebtandcommonstock,thetotalamountofinterestanddividendspaidwillchange.Becauseinterestanddividendsmustbepaidwithcash,anyincreaseinthesecostswilldecreasethefundsthefirmhastoinvest—thatis,theamountofincomeaddedtoretainedearningswillbelessthanoriginallyforecasted.Whenweconsidertheeffectsoftheincreasedinterestanddividendpayments,wefindthattheAFNisactuallygreaterthanoriginallyexpected.Financingfeedbacks—thatis,theeffectsonthefinancialstatementsofactionstakentofinanceforecastedincreasesinassets—mustbeconsideredtodeterminetheexactamountofAFN.11FinancingFeedbacksIfthebu46Example(cont’d):Borrowat10%(NotesPayable).Itmeansthatnextyeartheinterestwillbe 560+(10%*2,128)Insteadofretaining1,166,thecompanyretains1,096becauseoftheinterest.Theendresultsisthatthecompanyhastoraise 2,128+70=219812Example(cont’d):Borrowat147TheAFNFormulaIntheformula,wecanuseeitheryear(2001or2002)numberstoarriveatthefinalresult.*AreferstotheTotalAssets.*Lreferstothesumofallspontaneousliabilities(AccountsPayableandAccruals).70AFN13TheAFNFormulaIntheformul48StepsinFinancialForecastingForecastsalesProjecttheassetsneededtosupportsalesProjectinternallygeneratedfundsProjectoutsidefundsneededDecidehowtoraisefundsSeeeffectsofplanonratiosandstockprice14StepsinFinancialForecasti49ForecastingsalesReviewpastsales(fivetotenyears).Youcanuseaveragegrowthratebutitmaynotgiveyouacorrectestimate.Useregressionslopetocomputegrowthrate.Considerchangesineconomy,marketconditions,etc.Impropersalesforecastcanleadtoseriousfinancialplanningissues.15ForecastingsalesReviewpast50Aftersalesforecasting,whatisnext?ForecasttheCOGS(acertain%ofsales).Inventorynumberswillchangewithsales.A/R(considercreditpolicychanges)willchangeandsowillA/R.Accordingly,cashandcashequivalentswillchange.16Aftersalesforecasting,wha51SalesforecastingandlongertermassetsandliabilitiesDotheyneedtobechangedaswellalongwithsales?Depends.Existingproductioncapacityrelativetothenewsalesprojections.17Salesforecastingandlonger52ReadytopreparetheincomestatementStartwithforecastedsalesProjecttheCOGSAssumingchangesinlongertermassetsandliabilities,forecastdepreciationandinterestexpenses(assumptionsrequiredforinterestrates/COC,etc.)ComputeEBIT.18Readytopreparetheincome53ReadytopreparetheBalanceSheetDeterminethenewlevelofassets(bothshort-termandlongerterm).Separatethemasoperatingassetsandlongtermassets.Forecastliabilities(currentaswellaslongerterm).Isanycommonstockorpreferredstocktobeissued?Ifso,takeintoaccountthechangesinthesenumbers.19ReadytopreparetheBalance54AdditionalfundsneededForecastedassetsandliabilitiesmaynotperfectlymatch.ThedifferenceisbecauseofAFNoradditionalfundsneeded.AFNistherequiredassetsminusthespecifiedsourcesoffinancing.20AdditionalfundsneededForec55HowwouldincreasesintheseitemsaffecttheAFN?Highersales:Increasesassetrequirements,increasesAFN.Higherdividendpayoutratio:Reducesfundsavailableinternally,increasesAFN.(More…)21Howwouldincreasesinthese56HowwouldincreasesintheseitemsaffecttheAFN?Higherprofitmargin:Increasesfundsavailableinternally,decreasesAFN.Highercapitalintensityratio,A*/S0:Increasesassetrequirements,increasesAFN.Paysupplierssooner:Decreasesspontaneousliabilities,increasesAFN.22Howwouldincreasesinthese57ProjectingProFormaStatementswiththePercentofSalesMethodProjectsalesbasedonforecastedgrowthrateinsalesForecastsomeitemsasapercentoftheforecastedsalesCostsCashAccountsreceivable(More...)23ProjectingProFormaStateme58Itemsaspercentofsales(Continued...)InventoriesNetfixedassetsAccountspayableandaccrualsChooseotheritemsDebtDividendpolicy(whichdeterminesretainedearnings)Commonstock24Itemsaspercentofsales(C59SourcesofFinancingNeededtoSupportAssetRequirementsGiventhepreviousassumptionsandchoices,wecanestimate:RequiredassetstosupportsalesSpecifiedsourcesoffinancingAdditionalfundsneeded(AFN)is:Requiredassetsminusspecifiedsourcesoffinancing25SourcesofFinancingNeeded60ImplicationsofAFNIfAFNispositive,thenyoumustsecureadditionalfinancing.IfAFNisnegative,thenyouhavemorefinancingthanisneeded.Payoffdebt.Buybackstock.B