上外版英語(yǔ)高級(jí)視聽(tīng)說(shuō)上冊(cè)聽(tīng)力原文

上外版英語(yǔ)高級(jí)視聽(tīng)說(shuō)上冊(cè)聽(tīng)力原文上外版英語(yǔ)高級(jí)視聽(tīng)說(shuō)上冊(cè)聽(tīng)力原文上外版英語(yǔ)高級(jí)視聽(tīng)說(shuō)上冊(cè)聽(tīng)力原文資料僅供參考文件編號(hào)：2022年4月上外版英語(yǔ)高級(jí)視聽(tīng)說(shuō)上冊(cè)聽(tīng)力原文版本號(hào)：A修改號(hào)：1頁(yè)次：1.0審核：批準(zhǔn):發(fā)布日期：Unit1PiratesoftheInternet

It’snosecretthatonlinepiracyhasdecimatedthemusicindustryasmillionsofpeoplestoppedbuyingCDsandstartedstealingtheirfavoritesongsbydownloadingthemfromtheinternet.Nowthehign-techthievesarecomingafterHollywood.Illegaldownloadingoffull-lengthfeaturefilmsisarelativelynewphenomenon,butit’sbecomingeasierandeasiertodo.ThepeoplerunningAmerica’smoviestudiosknowthatiftheydon’tdosomethingandfasttheycouldbeinthesameboatastherecordcompanies.Correspodent:“What’sreallyatstakeforthemovieindustrywithallthisprivacy”Chernin:“Well,Ithink,youknow,ultimately,ourabsolutefeatures.”P(pán)eterCherninruns20thCenturyFox,oneofthebiggeststudiosinHollywood.HeknowsthepiratesoftheInternetaregainingonhim.Correspont:“Doyouknowhowmanymoviesarebeingdownloadedtoday,inoneday,intheUnitedStates”Chernin:“Ithinkit’sprobablyinthehundredsofthousands,ifnotmillions.”Correspondent:“Andit’sonlygoingtogrow.”Chernin:“It’sonlygoingtogrow.√Somebodycanputaperfectdigitalcopyupontheinternet.Aperfectdigitalcopy,allright.Andwiththeclickofmouse,sendoutamillioncopiesallovertheworld,inaninstant.”

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Andit’sallfree.Ifthattakeshold,kissHollywoodgoodbye.Cherninrecentlyorganizeda“summit”betweenstudiomogulsandsomehighschoolandcollegekidsthepeoplemostlikelytobedownloading.Chernin:“Andwesaid,‘Let’scomeupwithachallenge.Let’sgivethemfivemovies,andseeiftheycanfindthemonline.’Andweallsataroundandpickedfivemovies,fourofwhichhadn’tbeenreleasedyet.Andthenwecamebackhalfanhourlater.Theyhadfoundallfivemoviesthatwegavethem.”Correspondent:“Eventheonesthathadn’tevenbeenreleasedyet”Chernin:“Eventheonesthathadn’tevenbeenreleasedyet.”Correspondent:“Didthesekidshaveanysensethattheywerestealing”Chernin:“Youknowit’s…it’saweirddichotomy.Ithinktheyknowit’sstealing,andIdon’tthinktheythinkit’swrong.Ithinktheyhaveanattitudeof,‘It’shere.’”TheInternetcopyoflastyear’shitSigns,starringMelGibson,wasstolenevenbeforedirectorM.NightShyamalancouldorganizethepremiere.Correspondent:“Themoviewasabouttobereleased.Whendidthefirstbootlegcopyappear”

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Shyamalan:“Twoweeksbeforeitorthreeweeksbeforeit.BeforetheInternetage,whensomebodybootleggedamovie,theonlyoutlettheyhadwastoseeittothosevendorsonTimesSquare,wheretheyhadtheboxessetupoutsideandtheysay,‘Hey,wehaveSignsit’snotevenoutyet.’Andyouwalkbyandyouknowit’sillegal.Butnow,becauseit’sthedigitalage,youcansee,like,acleancopy.It’snolongerthekindofthesleazyguyinTimesSquarewiththebox.It’sjust,oh,it’sonthisbeautifulsite,andIhavetogo,‘Click.’”Correspondent:“HowdidthosemoviesgetontheInternetHowdidthathappen”Chernin:“Throughanabsoluteactoftheft.Someonestealsaprintfromtheeditor’sroom;someonestealsaprintfromtheperson;thecomposerwho’sdoingthemusic…absolutephysicaltheft,stealsaprint,makesadigitalcopy,anduploadsit.”Correspondent:“Andthereyougo.”DigitalcopieslikethisoneofTheMatrixReloadedhavealsobeenbootleggedfromDVDssenttoreviewersoradagencies,orcirculatedamongcompaniesthatdospecialeffects,orsubtitles.Chernin:“Theotherwaythatpre-releasedmoviesendup(stolen)isthatpeoplegoto…therearelotsofscreeningsthathappeninthisindustry…Peoplegotothosescreeningswithacamcorder,withadigitalcamcorder,sitintheback,turnthecamcorderon…”

Correspondent:“Andrecordit.”Thisisoneofthoserecorded-off-the-screencopiesofDisney’sPiratesoftheCaribbean.Notgreatquality,butnotawfuleither.Andwhileitusedtotakeforevertodownloadamovie,anyonewithahigh-speedInternetconnectioncannowhaveafull-lengthfilminanhourortwo.

Saaf:“Well,thisisjustoneofmanywebsiteswherebasicallypeople,hackersifyouwill,announcetheirpiracyreleases.”RandySaafrunsacompanycalledMediaDefenderthathelpsmoviestudioscombatonlinepiracy.Correspondent:“Lookatthis,allthesenewmoviesthatIhaven’tevenseenyet,allhere.”Saaf:“Yep.”Correspondent:“SecondhandLionsthatjustcameout.SometimesIfeellikeI’mtheonlypersoninthiscountrywhohasneverdownloadedanything.Butmaybethereisafewothersofusoutthere.SoI’mgoingtoaskyoutoshowusKazaa,that’sthebiggestdownloadingsite,right”

Saaf:“Right.ThisistheKazaamediadesktop.Kazaaisthelargestpeer-to-peernetwork.”It’scalledpeer-to-peerbecausecomputerusersaresharingfiles

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witheachother,withnomiddleman.AllKazaadoesisprovidethesoftwaretomakethatsharingpossible.WhenwewentonlinewithRandySaaf,nearlyfourmillionotherKazaausersweretherewithus,sharingeverykindofdigitalfile.Saaf:“Audio,documents,images,software,andvideo.Ifyouwantedamovie,youwouldclickonthevideosection,andthenyouwouldtypeinasearchphrase.Andbasicallywhatthisisdoingnow,itisaskingthepeopleonthepeer-to-peernetwork,‘WhohasFindingMemo’

”Withinseconds,191computerssentananswer:“Wehaveit.”ThisisFindingMemo,crisppictureandsound,downloadedfreefromKazaaamonthbeforeitsreleaseforvideorentalorsale.Ifyoudon’twanttowatchitonalittlecomputerscreen,youdon’thaveto.Onthenewestcomputers,youcanjust“burn”itontoaDVDandwatchitonyourbig-screenTV.5.Andthat’sadaggerpointedrightattheheartofHollywood.Chernin:“WheremoviesmakethebulkoftheirmoneyisonDVDandhomevideos.50percentoftherevenuesforanymoviecomeoutofhomevideo…”Correspondent:“15percent”

Chernin:“50percentsothatifpiracyoccursanditwipesoutyourhomevideoprofitsorultimatelyyourtelevisionprofits,youareoutofbusiness.Nomovieswillgetmade.”Evenifmoviesdidgetmade,NightShyamalansaysthatwouldn’tbeanygood,becauseprofitswouldbenegligible,sobudgetswouldshrinkdramatically.Shyamalan:“Andslowlyitwilldegradewhat’spossibleinthatartform.”Rosso:“Technologyalwayswins.Always.Youcan’tshutitdown.”WayneRossoisHollywood’senemy.Theycallhimapirate,butofficiallyhe’sthepresidentofGrokster,anotherpeer-to-peernetworkthatworksjustlikeKazaa.Correspondent:“Ok,Ihavedownloadedyoursoftware.”Rosso:“Right.”Correspondent:“Ok,didIpaytodothat”Rosso:“No,it’sfree.”Correspondent:“SowhopaysyouHowdoyoumakemoney”Rosso:“We’relikeradio.Weareadvertising-supported.”Correspondent:“AndhowmanypeopleuseGrokster”

Rosso:“Tenmillion.”Correspondent:“Tenmillionpeoplehaveusedit.”Rosso:“Amonth.”Correspondent:“Everymonth,tenmillionpeople”

Rosso:“Uh-huh,uh-huh.Andgrowing.”

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Correspondent:“Useittodownloadmusic,movies,software,videogames,whatelse”

Rosso:“Iwillassume.See,wehavenowayofknowingwhatpeoplearedownloading.”Correspondent:“That’sjustafigleaf.Youarefacilitating,allowing,helpingpeoplesteal.”Rosso:“Wehavenoideawhatthecontentis,andwhateveritis…”Correspondent:“Well,youmaynotknowthespecifics,butyouknowthat’swhatyoursite…”Rosso:“Andwecan’tstopit.Wehavenocontroloverit.”Correspondent:“Butyouarethereforthatpurpose,thatiswhyyouexist,ofcourseitis.”Rosso:“No,no,no,no,no,no.”Correspondent:“Comeon,thisisthefigleafpart.”Rosso:“No,no,no,no,no.”Shyamalan:“Heistotallyconformablewithputtingonhissiteastolenpieceofmaterial.AmIwronginthat

Ifmymoviewasbootlegged,he’dbetotallycomfortableputtingitonhissite”

Correspondent:“BecauseIhavenothingtodowithit.”Shyamalan:“Yeah,right.”Correspondent:“BecauseIjustprovidedthesoftware.”Shyamalan:“Yeah,right.So,immediately,howcanyoueverhavea

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conversationwithhim

Becausehe’stakenastolenmaterialandheistotallyfinewithpassingitaroundinhishouse.Allthese,alltheseareillegalactivities.So,I’mnot,it’sjustmyhouse,I’mnotdoinganythingwrong.”ButitisRossowhohasthelawonhisside.AfederaljudgehasruledthatGroksterandotherfile-swappingnetworksarenotliableforwhattheirdownloadersaredoing.Rosso:“Sowearecompletelylegal,andunfortunatelythisissomethingtheentertainmentindustryrefusestoaccept.Theyseemtothinkthejudge’sdecisionwasnothingbutatypo.”Thestudiosareappealingthatcourtruling.Andtheymayfollowthemusicindustryandbegintosueindividualswhodownloadmovies.Andtheyarefightingthepiratesinotherways,withadsaboutpeoplewhosejobsareatriskbecauseofthepiracypeoplelikethecarpentersandpainterswhoworkonfilmsets.Atthesametime,Hollywoodistryingtokeepcopiesofmoviesfromleakinginthefirstplace.Chernin:“Youwillveryseldomgotoanearlyscreeningofamovierightnowwhere,probablyyoudon’tnoticeuntilyoupayattention,someone’snotinthefrontofthatauditoriumwithinfraredbinocularslookingforsomebodywithacamcorder.”

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Andonceamovieisreleased,orcopiesdobegintoleak,thestudioshirepeoplelikeRandySaaftohackthehackers.Saaf:“Whatwe’rejusttryingtodoismaketheactualpiratedcontentdifficulttofind.Andthewaywedothatisby,youknow,servingupfakefiles.”It’scalled“spoofing.”SaafandhisemployeesspendtheirdaysonKazaaandGrokster,offeringupthousandsoffilesthatlooklikecopiesofnewmovies,butaren’t.Correspondent:“SoifIhadclickedonanynumberofthoseFindingNemoofferings,Icouldhaveclickedononeofyours,orsomebodylikeyou.AndwhatwouldIhavefoundaftermyhourandahalfofdownloading”

Saaf:“itmightjustbeablankscreenorsomething.Youknow,typicallyspeaking,whatwepushoutisjustnottherealcontent.”Correspondent:“Whatyouaretryingtodoismakethissoimpossible,soinfuriatingthatpeoplewilljustthrowuptheirhandsandsayit’sjusteasierformetogorentthisthing,buytheDVDorwhatever,it’sjusteasier.”Saaf:“Right.”Correspondent:“That’syourgoal.”Saaf：：“Right.”

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Correspondent:“DoesthatworkIsthatagoodidea”Rosso:“No.Itdoesn’twork.ImeanIdon’tblamethembutitdoesn’tworkbecausewhathappensisthatthecommunitycleansesitselfofthespoofs.”Hemeansthatdownloadersquicklyspreadthewordonlineabouthowtotellthefakemoviefilesfromtherealthing.Correspondent:“It’slikeanarmsrace(軍備競(jìng)賽）,isn’tit”

Chernin:“That’sexactlywhatit’slike.It’slikeanarmsrace.Therewillbe,youknow,they’regonnagetastepahead.We’regonnatryandgetthatstepback.”Rosso:“ButI’lltellyouonething:I’llbetonthehackers.”Correspondent:“Thattheywillbreakwhatever…”Rosso:“Thestudioscomeupwith.”Correspondent:“Thecompaniesthrowatthem.”

HollywoodknowsthatdownloadingofftheInternetisthewaymillionsofconsumerswanttogettheirentertainmentandthatisn’tgoingaway.Chernin:“Thegenerallyacceptedestimateisthatmorethat60millionAmericanshavedownloadedfile-sharingsoftwareontotheircomputers.”Correspondent:“60million.”

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Chernin:“At60millionAmericans,that’samainstreamproduct.That’snotabunchofcollegekidsor,youknow,abunchofcomputergeeks.That’sAmerica.”So,insteadoftryingtostopitentirely,thestudiosarelookingforwaystoembraceit,butgetpaidtoo.WayneRossosaysthebestwayistonegotiatesomekindsoflicensingdealwithhim.Rosso:“Ifthemovieindustryactsnowandstartsexploringalternativesandsolutionswithguyslikeme,hopefullytheywon’thaveaproblem.”Correspondent:“Whatiftheytrytobuyyou”Rosso:“I’dsellitinalheartbeat.”Correspondent:“Youwouldsell,Groksterwouldselltoamoviestudio”Rosso:“Sure,callme.”TheideaofmakingdealswithwhatPeterChernincalls“abunchofcrooks”doesn’tappealtoHollywood.Instead,Foxandotherstudioshavejustlaunchedtheirownsite,Movielink,whereconsumerscandownloadafilmforamodestfee,betweenthreeandfivedollars.Chernin:“Ithinkyouwouldlovetheideathatyoudon’thavetogotothevideostore.Youcandothis.Andthat’swhatwe’reworking

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on.Butinorderforthattobeeffective,wehavetostopprivacy,becausethemosteffectivebusinessmodelintheworldcan’tcompetewithfree.”NotthatPeterCherninisinterested,buthewon’thavethechancetobuyGrokster,atleastnotfromWayneRosso.Afewdaysago,RossoannouncedthatheisleavingGrokstertotakeoveraspresidentofanotherfile-swappingsoftwarecompany,thisonebasedinSpain.Groksterwillcontinueundernewmanagement.Unit2Aplantobuildtheworld'sfirstairportforlaunchingcommercialspacecraftinNewMexicoisthelatestdevelopmentinthenewspacerace,araceamongprivatecompaniesandbillionaireentrepreneurstocarrypayingpassengersintospaceandtokick-startanewindustry,astrotourism.Themanwhoisleadingtheracemaynotbefamiliartoyou,buttoastronauts,pilots,andaeronauticalengineers–basicallytoanyonewhoknowsanythingaboutaircraftdesign–BurtRutanisalegend,anaeronauticalengineerwhoselatestaircraftistheworld'sfirstprivatespaceship.Ashetold60MinutescorrespondentEdBradleywhenhefirstmethimalittleoverayearago,ifhisideaflies,somedayspacetravelmaybecheapenoughandsafeenoughforordinarypeopletogowhereonlyastronautshavegonebefore

TheWhiteKnightisaratherunusuallookingaircraft,builtjustforthepurposeofcarryingarocketplanecalledSpaceShipOne,thefirstspacecraftbuiltbyprivateenterprise.WhiteKnightandSpaceShipOnearethelatestcreationsofBurtRutan.They'repartofhisdreamtodevelopacommercialtravelbusinessinspace.

"Therewillbeanewindustry.Andwearejustnowinabeginning.Iwillpredictthatin12or15years,therewillbetensofthousands,maybeevenhundredsofthousandsofpeoplethatfly,andseethatblacksky,"saysRutan.OnJune21,2004,WhiteKnighttookofffromanairstripinMojave,Calif.,carryingRutan'sspaceship.Ittook63minutestoreachthelaunchaltitudeof47,000feet.Oncethere,theWhiteKnightcrewpreparedtoreleasethespaceship.

ThefierceaccelerationslammedMikeMelvill,thepilot,backinhisseat.HeputSpaceShipOneintoanearverticaltrajectory,until,asplanned,thefuelranout.

Stillclimbinglikeaspentbullet,Melvillhopedtogainasmuchaltitudeaspossibletoreachspacebeforetheshipbeganfallingbacktoearth.Bythetimethespaceshipreachedtheendofitsclimb,itwas22milesoffcourse.Butithad,justbarely,reachedanaltitudeofjustover62miles—theinternationallyrecognizedboundaryofspace.

ItwasthenewsRutanhadbeenwaitingfor.FallingbacktoEarthfromanaltitudeof62miles,SpaceShipOne'stiltingwing,arevolutionaryinnovationcalledthefeather,causedtherocketplanetopositionitselfforarelativelybenignre-entryandturnedthespaceshipintoaglider.

SpaceShipOneglidedtoaflawlesslandingbeforeacrowdofthousands."AfterthatJuneflight,IfeltlikeIwasfloatingaroundandjustonceinawhiletouchingtheground,"remembersRutan."Wehadanoperablespaceplane."

Rutan's"operablespaceplane"wasbuiltbyacompanywithonly130employeesatacostofjust$25million.Hebelieveshissuccesshasendedthegovernment'smonopolyonspacetravel,andopenedituptotheordinarycitizen."Iconcludedthatforaffordabletraveltohappen,thelittleguyhadtodoitbecausehehadtheincentiveforabusiness,"saysRutan.

DoesRutanviewthisasabusinessventureoratechnologicalchallenge?

"It'satechnologicalchallengefirst.Andit'sadreamIhadwhenIwas12,"hesays.

Rutanstartedbuildingmodelairplaneswhenhewassevenyearsold,inDyenuba,Calif.,wherehegrewup."Iwasfascinatedbyputtingbalsawoodtogetherandseehowitwouldfly,"heremembers."AndwhenIstartedhavingthecapabilitytodocontestsandactuallywinatrophybymakingabettermodel,thenIwashooked."

He'sbeenhookedeversince.Hedesignedhisfirstairplanein1968andflewitfouryearslater.Sincethenhisairplaneshavebecomeknownfortheirstunninglooks,innovativedesignandtechnologicalsophistication.

Rutanbegandesigningaspaceshipnearlyadecadeago,aftersettingupsetuphisownaeronauticalresearchanddesignfirm.Bytheyear2000,hehadturnedhisdesignsintomodelsandwastestingthemoutsidehisoffice.WhenIgottothepointthatIknewthatIcouldmakeasafespaceshipthatwouldflyamannedspacemission--whenIsay,'I,'notthegovernment,ourlittleteam--ItoldPaulAllen,'Ithinkwecandothis.'Andheimmediatelysaid,'Gowithit.'"PaulAllenco-foundedMicrosoftandisoneoftherichestmenintheworld.Hisdecisiontopump$25millionintoRutan'scompany,ScaledComposites,wasthevoteofconfidencethathisengineersneededtoproceed.

"Thatwasaheckofachallengetoputinfrontofsomepeoplelikeus,wherewe'retold,'Well,youcan'tdothat.Youwannasee

Wecandothis,"saysPeteSebold.

WorkonWhiteKnightandSpaceShipOnestartedfouryearsagoinsecret.Bothaircraftwerecustommadefromscratchbyateamof12engineersusinglayersoftoughcarbonfabricgluedtogetherwithepoxy.Designedtobelight-weight,SpaceShipOnecanwithstandthestressofre-entrybecauseoftheradicalwayitcomesbackintotheatmosphere,likeabadmintonshuttlecockorabirdie.

Heshowed60Minuteshowitworks.

"Featheringthewingiskindofadramaticthing,inthatitchangesthewholeconfigurationoftheairplane,"heexplains."Andthisisdoneinspace,okay

It'sdoneafteryouflyintospace."

"Wehavedonesixreentries.Threeofthemfromspaceandthreeofthemfromloweraltitudes.Andsomeofthemhaveevencomedownupsidedown.Andtheairplanebyitselfstraightensitselfrightup,"Rutanexplains.

BySeptember2004,Rutanwasreadyforhisnextchallenge:anattempttowina$10millionprizetobethefirsttoflyaprivatelyfundedspacecraftintospace,anddoittwiceintwoweeks.

"AfterwehadflowntheJuneflight,andwehadreachedthegoalofourprogram,thenthemostimportantthingwastowinthatprize,"saysRutan.

ThatprizewastheAnsariXPrize–anextraordinarycompetitioncreatedin1996tostimulateprivateinvestmentinspace.

Thefirstofthetwoflightswaspiloted,onceagain,byMikeMelvill.

September'sflightputMelville'sskillandtrainingtothetest.Ashewasclimbingoutoftheatmosphere,thespacecraftsuddenlywentintoaseriesofrolls.

Howconcernedwashe?

"Well,IthoughtIcouldworkitout.I'mveryconfidentwhenI'mflyingaplanewhenI'vegotthecontrolsinmyhand.IalwaysbelievedIcanfixthisnomatterhowbaditgets,"saysMelville.

SpaceShipOnerolled29timesbeforeheregainedcontrol.Theremainderoftheflightwaswithoutincident,andMelvillmadethe20-minuteglidebacktotheMojaveairport.ThelandingonthatSeptemberafternoonwasflawless.BecauseRutanwantedtoattemptthesecondrequiredflightjustfourdayslater,theengineershadlittletimetofindoutwhathadgonewrong.Working12-hourshifts,theydiscoveredtheydidn'tneedtofixthespacecraft,justthewayinwhichthepilotsflewit.Forthesecondflight,itwastestpilotBrianBinnie'sturntoflySpaceShipOne.

Thespaceshipflewupwardonaperfecttrajectory,breakingthroughtospace.

Rutan'sSpaceShipOnehadflowntospacetwiceintwoweeks,capturedtheXPrizeworth$10million,andwonbraggingrightsoverthespaceestablishment."YouknowIwaswonderingwhattheyarefeeling,'They'beingthatotherspaceagency,"Rutansayslaughing."Youknow,quitefrankly,Ithinkthebigguys,theBoeings,theLockheeds,thenay-saypeopleatHouston,Ithinkthey'relookingateachothernowandsaying'We'rescrewed!'Because,I'lltellyousomething,Ihaveahellofalotbiggergoalthantheydo!""Theastronautssaythatthemostexcitingexperienceisfloatingaroundinaspacesuit,"saysRutan,showingoffhisownplans."ButIdon'tagree.Aspacesuitisanawfulthing.Itconstrainsyouandithasnoisyfansrunning.Nowlookoverhere.It'squiet.Andyou'reoutherewatchingtheworldgobyinwhatyoumightcalla'spiritualdome.'Well,that,tome,isbetterthanaspacesuitbecauseyou'renotconstrained."Healsohasavisionforaresorthotelinspace,andsaysitallcouldbeaccomplishedintheforeseeablefuture.Rutanbelievesitisthedawnofanewera.

Heexplains,"Ithinkwe'veprovennowthatthesmallguyscanbuildaspaceshipandgotospace.Andnotonlythat,we'veconvincedarichguy,averyrichguy,tocometothiscountryandbuildaspaceprogramtotakeeverydaypeopletospace."That"richguy"isRichardBranson,theEnglishbillionairewhoownsVirginAtlanticAirlines.Bransonhassigneda$120milliondealwithRutantobuildfivespaceshipsforpayingcustomers.Named"VirginGalactic,"itwillbetheworld'sfirst"spaceline."Flightsareexpectedtobeginin2008."Webelievebyflyingtensofthousandsofpeopletospace,andmakingthataprofitablebusiness,thatthatwillleadintoaffordableorbitaltravel,"saysRutan.

Rutanthinksthere"absolutely"isamarketforthis.

Withticketsinitiallygoingfor$200,000,themarketislimited.Nevertheless,VirginGalacticsays38,000peoplehaveputdownadepositforaseat,and90ofthosehavepaidthefull$200,000.

ButRutanhasanothervision."Thegoalisaffordabletravelabovelow-Earthorbit.Inotherwords,affordabletravelforustogotothemoon.Affordabletravel.ThatmeansnotjustNASAastronauts,butthousandsofpeoplebeingabletogotothemoon,"hesays."I'dliketogo.Wouldn'tyou"

ByHarryRadliffe

United3For300years,theseahasbeenclosinginonNewOrleans.Asthecoastalerosioncontinues,itisestimatedthecitywillbeoffshorein90years.Eveningoodweather,NewOrleansissinking.AsthecitybeginswhatislikelytobethebiggestdemolitionprojectinU.S.history,thequestionis,canweorshouldweputNewOrleansbacktogetheragain?

LifehasbeenreturningtohighanddrylandonBourbonStreet,buttofindthemonumentalchallengefacingthecityyouhavetovisitneighborhoodsyouhaveneverheardof.OnLizardiStreet,60MinutestookawalkwiththemeninchargeoffinishingwhatKatrinastarted.

CorrespondentScottPelleyreports.

BeforeKatrina,"Therewouldbenoiseandactivityandfamiliesandpeople,andchildren,and,youknow,Ihaven'tseenachildinamonthhere,"saysGregMeffert,acityofficialwho,withhiscolleagueMikeCentineo,istryingtofigureouthowmuchofthecitywillhavetobedemolished.

Meffert,whoisinchargeofcityplanning,saysitis"verypossible"upto50,000houseswillhavetobebulldozed.Rightnow,mostofthehomesinthecityareuninhabitable.

Meffertfacesadifficulttask.Everytimehegoestoahousesitehere,hesays,"It'sonemoreknifeinmethatsays,'Shedidanotherone.Shedidanotherone,'"explainsMeffert,"she"meaningHurricaneKatrina.

Whenyouwalkthroughtheseneighborhoodsandyouseethehouses,yougetasenseofthepainoftheindividualfamilies.Butyoudon'tgetasenseofwhathashappenedtothecityofNewOrleansitself.

Itisestimatedthattherewere200,000homesinNewOrleans,and120,000ofthemweredamagedbytheflood.

ThepartofthecityknownasthelowerNinthWardreceivedsomeoftheheaviestflooding.Thehousesaresplinteredblockafterblockafterblock,almostasifthecityhadbeencarpet-bombedinwar.

Meffertsaysthatbeforethestorm,NewOrleanshadapopulationof470,000-480,000people.Realistically,hethinksthathalfofthoseresidentswon'tbecomingback.

Thepossessionsofthousandsoffamilies,thestuffcollectedoverlifetimesissuddenlygarbage,clawedupintomountainsincityparks.Withsomuchgonealready,shouldNewOrleanspickuprightwhereitwas?

"WeshouldbethinkingaboutagradualpulloutofNewOrleans,andstartingtorebuildpeople'shomes,businessesandindustryinplacesthatcanlastmorethan80years,"saysTimKusky,aprofessorofearthsciencesatSt.LouisUniversity.

KuskytalksaboutawithdrawalofthecityandexplainsthatcoastalerosionwasthrownintofastforwardbyKatrina.Hesaysby2095,thecoastlinewillpassthecityandNewOrleanswillbewhathecallsa"fishbowl."

"BecauseNewOrleansisgoingtobe15to18feetbelowsealevel,sittingoffthecoastofNorthAmericasurroundedbya50-to100-foot-tallleveesystemtoprotectthecity,"explainsKusky.

HesaysthecitywillbecompletelysurroundedbytheGulfofMexicojust90yearsfromnow.

SincethisstoryairedonNov.20,therehasbeenconsiderablediscussionaboutwhetherNewOrleansreallyissinking,includingonCBSNews'blog,PublicEye.

"That'stheprojection,becausewearelosinglandontheMississippiDeltaatarateof25to30squaremilesperyear.That'stwoacresperhourthataresinkingbelowsealevel,"saysKusky.

Thatprocesscouldonlybeslowed,intheory,bymassiverestorationofwetlands.Inthemeantime,whileKusky'sadviceistoheadforthehills,someNewOrleansresidentsarehopingtoheadhome.

VeraFultonhaslivedmostofher81yearsonLizardiStreetandreturnedtoherhomerecentlyforthefirsttimesincebeingevacuated.

"Whentheysay'storm,'Ileave.Ican'tswimandIcan'tdrinkit.SowhatIdo,Ileave,"saysVera,whohaslostherhometotwohurricanes.

Veraisintentoncomingback."Idon'thavenootherhome,whereI'mgoing"

ThreegenerationsofFultons,Vera'ssonIrvinJr.,hiswifeGayandtheirsonIrvin,3rd,livearoundLizardiStreet.

Irvinsayshishouseis"justflat"andhedidn'thaveinsurance.

That'sthedilemma.Theonlythingtheyhaveleftislandpronetodisaster.Theywanttorebuild,andthecityplanstoletthem.

AtVera'shouse,MikeCentenio,thecity'stopbuildingofficial,told60Minuteshomescangoup