2022年上半年全球電力洞察（英）-EMBER

Publicationdate5October2022GlobalElectricityMid-YearInsightsGlobalelectricitydemandgrowthwasmetentirelybyrenewablepowerinthefirsthalfof2022,haltingtheriseinfossilfuels.AboutThisreportgivesmid-yearinsightsintotheglobalelectricitytransition.Itanalyseselectricitydatafrom75countriesrepresenting90%ofglobalelectricitydemandandincludesprojectionsforchangesintheremainingcountries.Itcomparesthefirstsixmonthsof2022(H1-2022)tothesameperiodin2021(H1-2021)toshowhowtheelectricitytransitionhasprogressed.LeadauthorsMa?gorzataWiatros-Motyka,DaveJonesAnalysiscontributorsHannahBroadbent,NicolasFulghum,ReynaldoDizon,PhilMacDonaldLanguagesEnglish,ChineseDisclaimerTheinformationinthisreportiscompleteandcorrecttothebestofourknowledge,butifyouspotanerror,pleaseemailinfo@CreativeCommonsThisreportispublishedunderaCreativeCommonsShareAlikeAttributionLicence(CCBY-SA4.0).Youareactivelyencouragedtoshareandadaptthereport,butyoumustcredittheauthorsandtitle,andyoumustshareanymaterialyoucreateunderthesamelicence.Copyright?Ember,20223Contents04Executivesummary08Chapter1:Globalanalysis08Renewablesmetgrowingelectricitydemand,haltingcoalandgas10Powersectoremissionsmayyetsetanewrecordhighin202212Areweclosetoreachinganewtippingpoint?13Chapter2:Countryanalysis13ChinaIndia18EuropeanUnion20UnitedStates22Chapter3:The“whatif”scenario24Conclusion26SupportingmaterialsHighlights+389Changeinglobalelectricitydemand(TWh)Changeinrenewablegeneration(TWh)+5Changeinfossilgeneration(TWh)ExecutivesummaryRenewablesmetallglobalelectricitydemandgrowthTheworldisinthemiddleofanenergycrisis.Withalltheheadlines,itmighthavebeenexpectedthatcoalandgasusewouldhaveincreasedin2022.Butthatisnotwhathappened,atleastintheelectricitysector.Infact,inthefirsthalfof2022,renewablesmetallthegrowthinglobalelectricitydemand,haltingtheriseinfossilfuels.RenewablesmetallgrowthinglobalelectricitydemandGlobalelectricitydemandrose3%inthefirsthalfof2022comparedtothesameperiodlastyear;thiswasinlinewiththehistoricaverage.Windandsolarmet77%ofthisdemandgrowth,andhydromorethanmettheremainder.InChina,theriseinwindandsolargenerationmet92%ofitselectricitydemandrise;intheUSitwas81%,whileinIndiaitwas23%.02CoalandgasgenerationremainedalmostunchangedBecauserenewablesgrowthmetallthedemandgrowth,fossilgenerationwasalmostunchanged.Coaldeclinedby1%andgasdeclinedby0.05%;thesewereoffsetbyaslightriseinoil.Consequently,globalCO2powersector5emissionswereunchanged,despitetheriseinelectricitydemand.CoalintheEUrose15%onlytocoveratemporaryshortfallinnuclearandhydrogeneration.CoalinIndiarose10%becauseofasharpreboundinelectricitydemandfromthelowsearlylastyearwhentheCovid-19pandemicstruckhardest.Theseriseswereoffsetagainstfallsof3%inChinaand7%intheUS.03WindandsolargrowthdeliveredtangiblecostandclimatebenefitsThegrowthinwindandsolarinthefirsthalfof2022preventeda4%increaseinfossilgeneration.Thisavoided$40billionUSDinfuelcostsand230MtCO2inemissions.InChina,thegrowthinwindandsolarenabledfossilfuelpowertofall3%,ratherthanriseby1%.InIndia,itsloweddowntheriseinfossilfuelpowerfrom12%to9%.IntheUS,itsloweddowntheriseinfossilfuelpowerfrom7%to1%.IntheEU,itpreventedamajorriseinfossilfuelpower-withoutwindandsolar,fossilgenerationwouldhaverisenby16%insteadof6%.04Powersectoremissionsmayyetsetanewrecordhighin2022InJulyandAugusttherewasariseinglobalcoalandgasgeneration,leavingopenthepossibilitythatpowersectorCO2emissionsin2022mayyetrise,followinglastyear’sall-timehigh.ThishappenedbecauseChina’shydrosurplusturnedintodeficitduetorecorddroughts,andheatwavesstruckacrosstheworld,pushingupelectricitydemand.Wearegettingclosertoatippingpoint,wherecleanelectricity-ledbywindandsolar-willmeetallfutureelectricitydemandgrowth,andthusfossilfuelpowergenerationpeaks.Renewablegenerationgrowthhasmatchedglobalelectricitydemandgrowthbefore;in2015and2019.Butwhenwearethere,thatisonlythebeginning.Theelectricitysectorshouldbequicklyreducingemissions.Thefactthatwe’restillatorclosetorecordhighsshowshowmuchmorequicklytheelectricitytransitionneedstohappen.6Windandsolarareprovingthemselvesasaneffectivesolutionastheworldfacesescalatingclimateimpacts,energyinsecurityandeconomicinstability.Theyarebringingdowncosts,andimprovingsecurity.““Windandsolarareprovingthemselvesduringtheenergycrisis.Thefirststeptoendingthegripofexpensiveandpollutingfossilfuelsistobuildenoughcleanpowertomeettheworld’sgrowingappetiteforelectricity.”“Wecan’tbesureifwe’vereachedpeakcoalandgasinthepowersector.Globalpowersectoremissionsarestillpushingall-timehighswhentheyneedtobefallingveryquickly.Andthesamefossilfuelspushingusintoaclimatecrisisarealsocausingtheglobalenergycrisis.”“Wehaveasolution:windandsolararehomegrownandcheap,andarealreadycuttingbothbillsandemissionsfast.”Ma?gorzataWiatros-MotykaSeniorElectricityAnalyst,EmberChapter1:GlobalanalysisGlobalelectricitytrendsinthefirsthalfof2022Renewables,drivenbywindandsolar,metalltheriseinglobalelectricitydemand.Thereforecoalandgasgenerationwereunchanged.However,powersectoremissionsmayyetsetanewrecordhighin2022.It’suncertainifwehavereachedthepointthattheriseincleanpowermeetsalltheriseinelectricitydemand,thereforehaltingtheriseinfossilfuelsinthepowersector.Renewablesmetgrowingelectricitydemand,haltingcoalandgasGlobalelectricitydemandrose3%,inlinewiththehistoricaverage.Globalelectricitydemandincreasedby389TWh(+3%),inlinewithaveragehistoricaldemandgrowthfor2010-2021.Totalglobaldemandreached13,393TWhinthefirsthalfof2022,upfrom13,004TWhinthesameperiodlastyear.9Renewablesgrowth(wind,solar,hydro)metalloftheelectricitydemandgrowth.Globalrenewablesgenerationincreasedby416TWh,slightlyexceedingthegrowthinglobalelectricitydemandof389TWh.Intotal,renewablesgenerated28%ofglobalelectricityinthefirsthalfof2022(3,802TWh),upfrom26%(3,387TWh)inthesameperiodlastyear.Windandsolarmet77%ofthisdemandgrowth.Windandsolararenowbeingbuiltatscaleincountrieswhereelectricitydemandisgrowingthefastest:inChina,windandsolargenerationmet92%ofitselectricitydemandrise;intheUSitwas81%,whileinIndiaitwas23%.Windgenerationroseby175TWh(19%)globallyinthefirsthalfof2022,whilesolarincreasedby125TWh(25%).Intotal,solargenerated5%ofglobalelectricityinthefirsthalfof2022(619TWh),whilewindgenerated8%(1,102TWh).10Mostoftheriseingenerationcanbeattributedtotheincreaseininstalledcapacity.However,theriseingenerationisalittlehigherthanwewouldexpectduetocapacityincreasesalone(solarcapacityin2021grewby19%andwindby13%).Othercontributingfactorsareweatherconditions(forexampleespeciallylowwindinQ1-2021inChinaandtheEU),thetimingofcapacityadditions,andtheriseinhigheroutputoffshorewind.Hydrogenerationmettheremainingriseinelectricitydemand.Hydrogenerationincreasedby6%(+116TWh),risingfrom1,965TWhinthefirsthalfof2021to2,081TWhinthesameperiodthisyear.Thegrowthincapacitywaslessthanhalfofthis.Therefore,themajorityofthehydrogenerationrise-unlikeforwindandsolar-wasduetofavourableweatherconditions.Inparticular,thepoorhydroconditionsseeninthefirsthalfoflastyearinChina,TurkeyandBrazilwerenotrepeatedthisyear.Coalandgasgenerationwerealmostunchanged.Becauseincreasedelectricitydemandwasmetfromrenewables,therewasnoneedforadditionalgenerationfromfossilfuels.Globallyfossilgenerationchangedonlyby+4TWh,from7998TWhinthefirsthalfof2021to8002TWhinthesameperiodthisyear.Coalfellby36TWh(-1%),gasby1TWh(-0.05%),whileotherfossilfuels(mainlyoil)increasedby42TWh(+14%).Consequently,globalCO2powersectoremissionswereunchanged,despitetheriseinelectricitydemand.Powersectoremissionsmayyetsetanewrecordhighin2022Despitethehaltinfossilgenerationinthefirsthalfof2022,coalandgasgenerationincreasedinJulyandAugust,asshowninthegraphbelow.ThishappenedbecauseChina’shydrosurplusearlyin2022turnedintodeficitbyAugustasaseveredroughthitthehydro-richprovinceofSichuan,andheatwavesstruckacrosstheworld,pushingupelectricitydemand.NucleargenerationisstilldownconsiderablyinEurope,duetooutagesinFranceandGermanclosures.Ourlatestyear-to-dateestimatesforJanuarytoAugustshowa1%(+63TWh)riseincoalpoweranda1.6%(+63TWh)riseingaspoweraswellasariseofoilgenerationof14%(+57TWh)comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.ThisriseinfossilgenerationledtoglobalpowersectorCO2emissionsincreasingby1.7%(133Mt)duringJanuarytoAugust,comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Consequently,itishanginginthebalancewhetherfossilgeneration-andtotalpowersectorCO2emissions-willrisetosetanewrecordthisyear.Areweclosetoanewtippingpoint?Havewereachedthepointthattheriseincleanpowermeetsalltheriseinelectricitydemand,thereforehaltingtheriseinfossilfuelsinthepowersector?Thishashappenedtwicebefore-in2015and2019(seegraphbelow)-whichwerebothyearsofbelow-averagedemandgrowth.TherisesinJulyandAugustmakeitlesslikelyitwillhappenin2022,butitwillcertainlybeclose.Aswindandsolaraddmoregenerationeveryyear,thattippingpointgetscloser.However,electricitydemandgrowthwillalsobeincreasing,aselectrificationofheating,transportandindustrypicksupthisdecade,meaningwewillneedevenmorecleanelectricityeveryyear.Butfora1.5degreepathway,it’snotenoughtostopfossilgenerationrising.TheIEANetZeroreportshowspowersectoremissionsneedtomorethanhalveby2030,andreach“netzero”by2040,tenyearsaheadoftherestoftheglobaleconomy.Chapter2:CountryanalysisMid-yearinsightsbycountryInChina,theriseinwindandsolargenerationalonemet92%ofitselectricitydemandrise;intheUSitwas81%,whileinIndiaitwas23%.ChinaGrowthinrenewablesandmuteddemandhelpedChina’scoalfallinH1-2022Windandsolargenerationmet92%ofChina’selectricitydemandriseinthefirsthalfof2022.However,thiswasagainstthebackdropofmutedelectricitydemandgrowth.Alargehydroreboundmeanttotalrenewablesmore-thancoveredtheriseinelectricitydemandleadingtoadeclineincoalgeneration.However,bytheendofAugust,coal’sfallinH1-2022hadbeenwipedout.Windandsolargenerationmet92%ofChina’selectricitydemandriseinthefirsthalfof2022.Windroseby65TWh,andsolarroseby47TWh,meeting92%ofthe122TWhriseinelectricitydemand.China’sriseinwindgenerationwas37%ofthetotalglobalincreaseofwindgeneration,andforsolaritwas38%.Electricitydemandgrowthwasmuted.China’selectricitydemandgrewby3%inthefirsthalfof2022comparedtothesameperiodlastyear,andevenwentintoreverseinAprilandMayduringthedeepestlockdowns.Thisisslowerthantheaveragehistoricaldemandgrowthfor2010-21of7%.Hadelectricitydemandgrowninlinewiththetrend,windandsolarwouldhavecoveredasmalleramountoftheriseinelectricitydemand.Alargehydroreboundmeanttotalrenewablesmore-thancoveredtheriseinelectricitydemandleadingtoadeclineincoalgeneration.Hydroreboundedfromverypoorconditionsinearly2021.Hydrogenerationroseby21%,comparedtoanestimatedincreaseincapacityofabout4%.Coal’sfallinH1-2022hadbeenwipedoutbytheendofAugust.Thehydrosituationturnedfromboomtobust,withextensivedroughtacrossthehydroregionofSichuaninAugust.Extensiveheatwavesalsopushedupelectricitydemand;electricitydemandinAugustwas12%higherthaninAugust2021.Asaresult,coalincreasedby111TWhinJulyandAugustcomparedtolastyear,cancellingoutthe79TWhfallincoalpowerseenduringthefirstsixmonthsoftheyear.IndiaIndia’scoalpowerroseasrenewablesgrowthonlypartiallymetthereboundinelectricitydemandinH1-2022InIndia,thegrowthinwindandsolargenerationmet23%oftheriseinIndia’selectricitydemandinthefirsthalfof2022.Thiswasincontextofastrongreboundinelectricitydemandfromthepandemiclowsin2021.InJulyandAugust,electricitydemandgrowthcalmed.Windandsolargenerationmet23%oftheriseinIndia’selectricitydemandinthefirsthalfof2022.Windgenerationincreasedby4TWh(+13%)andsolarby12TWh(+35%).UnlikeChina,theEUandtheUS,mostofIndia’srisewasinsolar,ratherthanwindgeneration.Electricitydemandrebounded.India’selectricitydemandreboundedbyasizable10%.Thisishigherthantheaverage2010-21growthof7%.Itwasmainlyduetothecountry’seconomyreboundingfromanintensepandemicperiodseeninQ2of2021,whichsawverylowelectricitydemand.Hadelectricitydemandgrowninlinewiththetrend,windandsolarwouldhaveobviouslycoveredalargeramountoftheriseinelectricitydemand.Coalgenerationroserapidly,necessitatedbyaspikeinelectricitydemandpost-pandemic.India’scoalgenerationroseby10%inthefirsthalfof2022comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.TheroleofgasinIndia’selectricitymixhasfurtherdiminished.Gasgenerationfellby31%inthefirsthalfof2022comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.Thismeantgasgenerationwasonly1.78%(14TWh)ofIndia’stotalelectricitygenerationinthefirsthalfof2022.ElectricitydemandgrowthsloweddowninJulyandAugust.Thissloweddowntheriseincoalpower.EuropeanUnionWindandsolarroseintheEUbutatemporarydeclineinhydroandnuclearledtoabriefuptickincoalIntheEU,hydroandnucleargenerationdeclinedsignificantly.Windandsolargenerationrose,enoughtomeethalfofthenuclearandhydroshortfall.Coalgenerationwasalsoneededtorisetocoverthetemporaryshortfall.IntheEU,hydroandnucleargenerationdeclinedsignificantly(-91TWh)inthefirsthalfof2022,mostlyduetotemporaryreasons.Hydrogenerationfellby25%(-47TWh)comparedtothesameperiodlastyearduetotheworstdroughtinEuropein500years.Thiswilllikelybouncebacknextyearifhydroconditionsnormalise.Nucleargenerationfellby12%(-43TWh)duetoFrenchoutagesandGermanplantclosures.EDFforecasttheirnucleargenerationwillrisefrom280-300TWhin2022to300-330TWhin2023and315-345TWhby2024.Windandsolargenerationroseby45TWh,enoughtomeethalfofthenuclearandhydroshortfall.Windgenerationroseby14%(+26TWh)andsolarby25%(+19TWh).Coalgenerationneededtorisetocoverthetemporaryshortfall.Whenthefallinhydroandnuclearisnettedagainstariseinwindandsolargenerationandaslightfallindemand,theremainingsupplyshortfallwas27TWh.Thiswasmetbya17%(+15TWh)riseinhardcoalgenerationanda12%(+12TWh)riseinlignitegeneration.Gasgenerationremainedalmostflatat+1%(+2TWh).Inthefirsthalfof2022,coalstillonlyprovided16%oftheEUelectricitymix;thisrepresentsasignificantreductionfrom2015wherecoalmadeupaquarteroftheEU’selectricityproduction.ThesamepatternhascontinuedintoJulyandAugust.FrenchnuclearpowersetnewlowsinAugust,andthehydrosituationisonlyjustbeginningtorecover.20UnitedStatesWindandsolargrewtomeetrisingelectricitydemand,preventingabigriseinfossilgenerationWindandsolargenerationmet81%oftheriseintheUnitedStates’electricitydemandinthefirsthalfof2022.Windgenerationincreasedby25%(+48TWh)andsolarby28%(+22TWh).Therestoftheelectricitydemandwasmetbyasmallriseinhydrogeneration(+12TWh),andasmallriseinfossilgeneration(+13TWh).Therewasaspurtinelectricitydemandgrowth.The4.2%increaseinelectricitydemandseeninthefirsthalfof2022,whichresultedfromanincreaseineconomicactivity,wasmuchhigherthanthe11-yearaverageincreaseof0.5%.Fossilgenerationroseby1%intheUS-however,coalpowerstillfell,asgasgenerationtookmarketsharefromcoal.Gasincreasedby5.6%(+40TWh)andcoalfellby7%(-27TWh)inthefirsthalfof2022comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.TheswitchfromcoaltogascontinuedintoJulyandAugust.BytheendofAugust,theyear-to-datechangeswerecoaldown9.2%andgasup6.6%.Chapter3:The“whatif”scenarioWindandsolararealreadychangingtheglobalpowesystemWhatiftherewasnoriseinwindandsolarinH1-2022?Insteadofflat-lining,fossilpowergeneration-andthereforeglobalpowersectorCO2emissions-wouldhaverisenbyaround4%andresultedinanincreasedfuelbillof$40billionUSD.TheriseinwindandsolarpowerstoppedourneedformorefossilfuelgenerationGlobally,windandsolargenerationroseby299TWh.Hadtheynotrisen,thisgenerationwouldprimarilyhavebeenmetwithcoalandgas.Thatwouldhavepusheduptotalglobalfossilgenerationby4%andincurred$40billionUSDinfuelcostaloneand203MtCO2emissionsinthefirsthalfof2022.Wecanalsoapplythisbasic“whatif”logictocountries.Thisshowsthatwindandsolarhadthefollowingimpacts:yChina:Enabledfossilfuelpowertofall3%,ratherthanriseby1%yIndia:Sloweddowntheriseinfossilfuelpowerfrom12%to9%yUS:Sloweddowntheriseinfossilfuelpowerfrom7%tojustyEU:Preventedamajorriseinfossilfuelpower-withoutwindandsolar,fossilgenerationwouldhaverisenby16%insteadof6%.23CalculatingthecostsavingBecauseweknowhowmuchwindandsolarreducetheneedforfossilfuels,wecanalsoestimateamonetaryvalueofthesavingsinfuelcosts.Weassume$240/tonneofcoal.ThisistheaverageAustraliaexportpriceforthefirsthalfof2022.At40%coalpowerplantefficiency,andnotransportorcarboncosts,thatcalculatesto$96perMWh.Weassume$22/MBtugasaverageprice.ThisistheQ1/Q2straightaveragepriceforTTF,AsiaspotandHenryHubpricesfromIEA.At50%gaspowerplantefficiency,andnotransportorcarboncosts,thatcalculatesto$151perMWh.Weassumeasplitofathirdgasgenerationandtwo-thirdscoalgeneration,roughlyinlinewiththeoverallglobalelectricitymix,givingaweightedaveragepriceof$133/MWh.Soifthe299TWhgeneratedbywindandsolargenerationwasinsteadgeneratedbyfossilfuelgeneration,thatwouldhaveincurred$40billionUSDinfuelcostaloneinthefirsthalfof2022.ConclusionApathwayoutofmultiplecrisesWindandsolarareprovingthemselvesasaneffectivesolutionastheworldfacesescalatingclimateimpacts,energyinsecurityandeconomicinstability.Bringingdowncosts,andimprovingsecurityOuranalysisshowsinthefirsthalfof2022,fortheyear-on-yearincreaseinwindandsolaralone,countriessavedpaying$40billionUSDoncoalandgas.Formanycountries,thismeantimprovingnationalsecurity,byreducingtheirimportbillbybillionsofdollars,muchofwhichwouldhavebeenpaidtocountriesthatarefuellingglobalinstability.Ascoalpricesh