TotalEnergies-世界能源展望

TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook20222TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022owthdecoupledfromtotalenergydemandandCOemissionsgrowth00GR200Powerfastestgrowingenergy,oilslowestone190180natakeoff180ddnd1160atthe160150ntensitygainsexplainingmostoftheDPandemissionssionssions130120110100Asin2000,fossilfuelsstillmakeup81%oftheenergymixin10090200020052010201520203TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022emandreboundcergydemandinvsemandreboundcergydemandinvs4%anticipatedinTEO21inoilandgasmatter‘Savegasforasafewinter’–ShorttermcoalconsumptionandCO2ontherisedinenergy-relatedCO2+2GtsioninsxNionforemergingerpromisedGylhighbecomingatopped/boeCleanCleanH2potentialonMtGreenHinEUin2030rgetstrongfiscalincentivesurityaffordabilitythroughthetransitionbuildingonNZcommitmentscountriesincludedinourscenariotargetsandNDCsofothercountriesinparticularaRussiaandIndiaTemperaturerisingby2.1-2.3°C*in2100oachhievedbasedontorebuildtheataglobalscaleTemperatureincreaselimitedto1.7°C*4TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022*AtP66,temperaturerangesascertainedbycomparingenergy-relatedCO2emissionstrajectorieswiththeIPCCAR6scenarios.**AtP50(sameasIEANZE)*Zero-emissionvehicle5TotalEnergiesEnergy*Zero-emissionvehicleMomentum:acceleratingtheramp-upofgreenermoleculesandelectronsrtswithhigherfossilfuelsdemandandhigheremissionssomoreeffortsneededunderwaymassiveroadelectrificationforLightandHeavyDutyVehiclesincreasedSAFambitionsformarineandaviationSpeedingupenduseelectrificationwithstronggrowthinRENdeploymentsskeytransitionenergyinpowerandindustrymuchlessinmobilityBiofuelsandbiogaspenetratingselectedsegments?H2potentialconfirmedwithrampupafter2030HighpolymerrecyclingobjectivesPgrowthyrowthyrRupture:howtoreachwell-below2°CdisseminationatscaleofdecarbonizationdriverstoallemergingeconomiespenergyswitchtoreduceemissionandincreaseenergyefficiencyFurtherdevelopmentofelectricity&renewables?ExtensionofroadtransportrevolutionwithhigherZEV*penetrationworldwideHigherpenetrationofnewenergycarriers(cleanH2inindustry&transport,e-fuels,biofuelsandbiogas…)Pgrowthyrowthyrnfromenttraditionalomodernenergycludingelectricity 60%nfromenttraditionalomodernenergycludingelectricity 60%2000 37%tionandyefficiencyeffortsesydemandydemand3000 71%1000PopulationGDPperPopulationGDPpercapita20192050efficiencyCAGRssinOECDprimaryenergydemand 26%PopulationGDPperPopulationGDPpercapita20192050efficiencyGlobalenergydemandgrowthofpa.from2019to2050reflects2oppositetrends:non-OECD+1.0%p.a.andOECD-0.7%p.a.onindevelopingcountriesthroughfinancingandtechnologytransfers6TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022SumofOECDandnon-OECDdemandsnotequaltototaldemandasinternationaltransport(bunkers)notreallocatedEnergyEnergytransformationOilCoalPowerOilCoalPowernergyproductionandusageissionsin5025Methanefromoil&gas*Methaneemissionsfromcoal*Methanefromagriculture,wasteCO2fromindustrialprocessesCO2fromland-usechangeOthergreenhousegases(N2O…)Globalenergy-relatedCO2emissionsin201915515PowerPower&HeatTransportIndustryRes.&Com.Otherenergyuse**AgricultureGasAgricultureAgriculture&OtherDecarbonizationofpowerandtransportarethekeyReducingmethaneemissionsisalsomandatory7TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022*Production&transportoffossilfuels**Includesenergysectorownuse,transportlosses,andenergytransformationons9Strongelectrificationofend-use~20%offinaldemand~30%rbonizationofpowersupplyTWh*ation0TWh*WhGasgoinggreenerableVinclesfleetfuelingaircraftsFfuelingaircraftsF@~45%ofdemandrityecycledbateremainingemissions~35Mt(0.1%CO2emissions)GtGt%)eleratione8TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022ExcludingRENgenerationforgreenH2ngasesincludeBiomethaneandHbutexcludingHshareforliquidefuelsproduction***Battery-ElectricVehiclesandFuel-cellElectricVehicles9TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022rs?RevolutioninTransport?Massivegrowthincleanpower?Increasedpenetrationofcleanhydrogenp4+34+321trationinChinaandNZcountries15010050201920302019203020152020202520302035204020452050LDVof19transportfinalenergydemandandCO2emissionsheprimarydecarbonizationdriverPJdMbdoildisplacedin,mainlyfor2-3wheelersdformobilitywillrequiresignificantestments?MassiveElectricVehicles(EV)penetrationsupportedbyInternalCombustionEnginesalesbanin2035inEuropeandpartoftheUS,ithambitiousEVtargetsinChinaByoffleetconvertedtoelectricityorHbasedfuelsindelsewhereChina10TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022LDV=LightVehicles(Passengercars+LightCommercialVehicles)+2-3wheelers**IncludesH2,e-fuels(H2+CO2)MMomentumUrbanvehicles(~30%ofHDVtraffic)Longhaul(~70%ofHDVtraffic)Urbanvehicles(~30%ofHDVtraffic)Longhaul(~70%ofHDVtraffic)butetotruckingdecarbonization100502019203020192030eofHDVtrafficMomentum2050,%ofkmtravelled50%150%ElecH2-based**HDVof019transportfinalenergydemandandCO2emissionsAmixofcleanenergies(electricity,hydrogenandbioenergies)requiredelectricpowertrainsleadingthewaytVehiclesoilshareuthalfoftheenergydemandby?Urbanandsomeregional/longhaulapplicationseearapidbattery-basedEVtrucksdevelopmentmoreprogressivenonethelesstakingallyforlonghaultrips11TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022Trucks+Buses+Coaches**IncludesFuelcellsandH2,e-fuels(H2+CO2)MMomentumneesehardtoabatesectorsionMomentum5025H2-based**ElectricityBiofuelsOilum50H2-based**25ElectricityBiofuels&BiogasLNGOil201920302050201920302050?Aviation:12%of2019TransportfinalenergydemandandCO2emissionssrequiredtoviationaselectricityandhydrogenwillremainlimited?Aviationtocaptureanincreasingshareofbiofuelssupplyafter2030attheeofroad?Marine:10%of2019TransportfinalenergydemandandCO2emissionsillplayakeyroleaspartoftheenergytransitionelsemethanoleammoniadeployedafterubstituteoil12TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022*SustainableAviationFuels=biofuels+e-fuels**IncludesH2,e-fuels(H2+CO2),methanol,ammonia…MMomentumPowergenerationexcludingpowerforGreenH2(Momentum)60000PowercapacitiesexcludingforGreenH2(Momentum)8000300002019203020192030OtherrenewablesBioenergy*HydroNuclearSolar&WindgasgasOilCoalwerdemandandgenerationalmostdoublingbypawithwindsolarrepresenting~90%ofnewgenerationfiredgenerationcompletephaseoutinNZcountriesggastoRENswitchgasgrowsinabsolutetermstomanagevariabilityofsolarwindanddemandseasonalityedinvestmentinnuclear600040002000SolarWindCoal200020102020203020402050citiesmultipliedbyinyearsrepresentingwercapacitiesinstartingtodecreaseinthelates?Averagepoweremissionfactorreducedby~75%by2050(netof13TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022traditionaluseofbiomasswastebiofuelsbiogasMMomentum100s100tartsdecreasingafterorMomentum50002500Othersectors*TransportRes&ComIndustryPowerGen2019203020192030Naturalgasisakeytransitionfuelgrowingby+0.2%p.a.to2050,withaplateaufromthe2030’slgastodisplacecoalinPowerandIndustryuseintransportremainsmainlyfocusedonMarine-2-2.3%p.a.50Transport50IndustryRes&ComOthersectors*2019203020192030creaseuntilearlyaturaldeclineofproducingoiluiringcontinuedinvestment14TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022gyusenonenergyuseandagricultureMMomentum60000500060000500011%300002500ctorsCleanH2balance(Momentum)300200100OtherOthersectors*PowerIndustIndustry0TransportTransport201920302201920302050NatGasandPowerdemandincludingH2(Momentum)AddedpowerdemandAddedAddedpowerdemandgasforH201920502201920502019venbyNetZerocountriesandChinastimesignificantpotentialafterTransportHusedinfuelcellsandefuelse-ammonia,e-methanol,e-jet)?BlueH2andpowergenerationmaindriversofgasdemandgrowthMtBlueHproductionwillrequireGtCCSby0reenHanimportantdriverofstrongpowerdemandgrowthtogetherwithrtandindustryxoftodayssolar&windcapacitiesdedicatedtoGreenH2by205015TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022gyusenonenergyuseandagricultureMMomentum10005002019203020192030OtherrenewablesH2-based*HeatElectricityBiofuelsBiomassBiogasgasgasOilCoalEnergy-relatedCO2emissionsbysector10TransportIndustryIndustry5Res&Com200020102020203020402050alenergymixmoreandmorediversifiedtionviacleanpowerdriverofallNZpoliciesFossilfuelssharedownfromto~45%emissionscurbedfirstandforemostfromtransporthenenduseremittingsectortoday16TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022desHefuelsHCOmethanolammoniaMMomentumWorldenergydemandandCO2emissionsenttomeetglobaltargets20001000201920302019203030Other30Solar&WindBioenergy*HydroNuclearNaturalgasOilCoal15200020102020203020402050Primaryenergydemandupbyby2050snaturalgasbothgrowingplayingkeycomplementaryroles?Energy-relatedCO2emissionsdropby~35%toreach21Gtin2050(netof~3GtCCS,mainlyinpower,blueH2andindustry)17TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022traditionaluseofbiomasswastebiofuelsbiogasMMomentum18TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022?AcloserlookatNZEcountries?Africa:apromisingenergytransitionAttheforefrontoftheenergytransitionNewNewinTEO022:Australia,UAE,SingaporeandTaiwand2000%Restofworld10520192050300200100%1000NZ2050countries201920502019205019TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022nNetZerocountriesPowergenerationcarbon-neutralby2040(netofCCS)nnaturalgastoRoadTransportcarbon-neutralby2050toelectricityorhydrogenbyElectrificationwithcleanpowerconsumptionWorldLeadingincleanH2andgreengasespenetrationgasesintotalgasesdemandZooZoomMomentumMomentumand500OtherrenewablesSolar&WindBioenergy*HydroNucleargasgasOilCoal2019203020192030Worldenergy-relatedCO2emissions4020Non-NZ2050countries(Momentum)NZNon-NZ2050countries(Momentum)NZ2050countriesnergydemandtofallbyinyearsilfuelssharefallfromalmosttolessthaninntransportandpetrochemicalsNaturalgaskeepingastrongroleinpowerandforblueH2production?After2GtofCCS,1Gtofemissionsremainingin2050rtsfarfromsufficientnonOECDcountrieswillnothappenoperationandsupportfromNZcountries20TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022odernuseofbioenergysuchasbiofuelsbiogasZooZoomtructuraltransformationdEnergyintensitygainsEnergyintensitygainsOtherrenewablesSolar&WindBioenergy*HydroNucleargasgasOilCoal201920302050GreenH4000OtherRENOff.4000Ons.wind2000 So2000BioenergyHydroNuclear NaturalgasCoal201920302050educingfossilfuelsusingbioenergyandRENtytopursueenergyefficiencyeffortsndbybyncreasedenergysecuritybeingendorsedby?Powergenerationlevel&RENcapacitiesconsistentwith2030Fitfor55esreachofEUpowergenerationbyfoldincreaseinSolarWindgenerationvorableconditionsforgreenHproductionMtby0consuming25%ofpowergeneration21TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022odernuseofbioenergysuchasbiofuelsbiogasZooZoom6%Billion5peopleWorldAfrica100020GtCO2PJ/d65years350GW6%Billion5peopleWorldAfrica100020GtCO2PJ/d65years350GW27yearsPotentialcapacity*Installedcapacityas2019110GW5%esCO2emissions1040Asof201920004%4%asasreserves10TWOilGasHydroWindOilGasHydroWindxx2xx2.5xx1.5CO2emissionsxx1.522TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022*Source:AfricanDevelopmentBank**2P+2Creserves/productionin2019ZooZoomZoom23TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022Zoomfricangpopulationaprimaryenergydemand150100502019205020192050RuptureMomentumOtherrenewablesSolar&WindModernbioenergyTraditionalbiomassHydroNuclearNaturalgasOilCoalEnergydemandgrowthof1.4%p.a.to2050izationfacilitatespartialtransitionawayfrominefficientandcleanermodernenergiesEnergymixleveragingdomesticoil&gasresources,withmodestOemissionsopmentofsolarwindandhydroEnergydemandgrowthof0.5%p.a.to2050tionoftraditionalbiomassthankstoquasiuniversaltrificationAccelerateddevelopmentofintermittentrenewablesandhydroanalmosttotalphaseoutofcoalOil&gasresourcescontinuetoplayimportantrolestosupportcandsocialdevelopment2050220502050Momentum2019000000frica000000rbanizationaricapoweraricapowerdemandbysector42CoalCoalOtherrenewablesBioenergy*WindSolarHydroNucleargasgasOil40324000Othersectors**Agriculture2579TransportIndustry2000861Res.&Com.2019205020192050RuptureMomentumnmultipliedbyinMomentumanddroandwindaccountingformorethanofthinRupturensfersfromOECDcountriesrequiredtofundcleanectstsinpowersectorgovernancealsomandatory?Powerdemandgrowthof3.6%p.a.(Momentum)&5.1%p.a.(Rupture)ingtosignificantResComexpansionaccountingforhalfofpowergrowthtoinbothscenarios24TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022Includestraditionaluseofbiomasswastebiofuels,biogas…andnonenergyuseZooZoom25TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022?Acceleratedelectrificationofdemand?AccelerateddeploymentofRENewrapupCO1020192050Rupture10005002050MomentumOtherrenewablesH21020192050Rupture10005002050MomentumOtherrenewablesH2-based*HeatElectricityBiofuelsBiomassBiogasNaturalgasOilCoal5lbelowCMomentumTransportIndustryRes&Com200020102020203020402050Rupture2020203020402050uelsbioenergiesaccountingfortwothirdsofergydemandinRupture?Almostcompletephase-outofcoal,strongreductioninoillgasandgreengases?Transportemissionsdividedby3inRupture2050(by2inMomentum)withacceleratedelectrificationionsreducedtoofcurrentlevelinRupturetum26TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022desHefuelsHCOmethanolammoniaRupturRuptureRuptureRupturebstitutionawayfromoilonaglobalscaleinlesandHDVtraffickm4002002019205020192050MomentumRuptureH2-based*ElectricityBiofuelsBiogasNaturalgasOilInRuptureoilrepresentslessthanoftransportfinalenergysalternativesarewidelydeployedinallsegmentsfuelsbiobasedandHbasedwilldrivedecarbonization.%LVfleetHDVtraffic50%RuptureMomentumRupture100%ndin%0%50%MomentumAviationMarinegdominantinalltransportmodes?50%CO2emissionsreductionin2050formarine(vs2005)andforationvs27TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022desHefuelsHCOmethanolammoniaRupturRuptureWorlddemandinIndustryandRes.&Com.6003002019205020192050RuptureMomentum400OtherrenewablesH2-based*HeaOtherrenewablesH2-based*HeatHeatElectricity200Electricity200BiomassBiogasNaturalgasBiomassBiogasNaturaBiogasNaturalOilgasCoal2019205020192050MomentumRMomentumnenabledbymultipleindepthchangesassubstitutionwhereverpossiblethengastoelectricity-AdoptionofH2forselectprocesses(ex:steelDRI,fertilizers)ndustryintriplingfromGtinMomentumtoGt?FlatRuptureRes&Comdemandby2050thankstomajorenergyefficiencygains(buildings,lighting,appliances,…)acilitatedbyurbanizationandmassivementramaticallyacceleratedfromiringtargetedsupportmechanisms28TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022desHefuelsHCOmethanolammoniaRupturRupturerationrsystemerforGreenHforGreenH6000030000201920502050Momentum201920502050MomentumCoalOtherrenewablesBioenergy*HydroCoalNuclearSolar&Windgasgas6000030000Othersectors**TransportIndustryRes.&Com.2019205020192050RuptureMomentumtioninRupturelargerthantotalpowerodaynRupturenaturalgasstillrequiredtomanageofrenewableenergiessdeploymentofenergystorageieselectrolysersflexiblepowerplantsandgridexpansion?Powerdemandacceleratingat2.5%p.a.to2050(vs.2%p.a.inMomentum),withRes.&Com.andIndustrydemanddoublingbytureandinrepresentingalmostonethirdofrdemandtoday29TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022Includestraditionaluseofbiomasswastebiofuels,biogas…eandagricultureRupturRupturetonaturalgasandpowerdemandinCleanH2balance500400300200100 ~470Othersectors*Res.&Com.PowerIndustryTransport0201920502201920502050ingHRuptureH2500~totalAsian25005000demandtodayorH6000030000~halfworldpower6000030000MomentumRupture2019205020192050Hproductiontakingoffafterdrivesupelectricity&gasdemandwithCCSdevelopmentryarethemainusersofcleanHdownandinfrastructuremustbebuiltupinordertosupportpHbecomesasignificantgrowthdriverfornaturalgasdemandstartingPowerforGreenH2pushesuppowerdemandCAGRfrom2.5%/ytoyuntil30TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022Otherenergyuse,non-energyuseandagricultureRupturRupture2050Momentum20302050Momentum2030OM201920192050Momentum2030OMdetor6000GasforblueH20003Othersectors**TransportRes&0003IndustryPowerGen6000CleanHydrogenBiomethane30003000NaturalGas***NaturalGasNatgasplaysitsroleasakeytransitionenergyinallsectorsoproduceblueH?Allgasescombinedgrowing~1%/yto2050naturalgasmakingofworldndininRuptureinMomentum31TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022*Forhydrogen:volumetricequivalenceofnaturalgasinenergyterms;H2supplyforliquide-fuelsproductionisexcludedusenonenergyuseandagriculture***CCS-abatednaturalgasdemandexcl.theportionusedtoproducehydrogenthroughSMR+CCSRupturRupture3232TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022Rupture1005010050ectorort2019205020192050MomentumRuptureE-fuelsinTransportBiofuelsinTransportTransportIndustry,Res&com…2010MarineAviationRoad2019205020192050MomentumRupturetilbeforereachingMbdinuptureinorethanofTransportpturebiofuelsandefuels?DecarbonizationofTransportwillrelyonmassivedevelopmentofSustainableLiquidFuels(biofuelssupplementedafter2030bye-fuels)formarineandaviationsectorswillrequireloymentduringthisdecadetomeetlongtermdemandnergyDemandustainablegrowthforall200010002019205020192050RuptureMomentumOtherrenewablesSolar&WindBioenergy*HydroNucleargasgasOilCoalMomentum2000WorldRestoftheworld1000NZ2050countries200020102020203020402050Rupture2020203020402050Rupturedisplayingamodestenergydemandgrowthto2%/yCoalusedividedbyinyearsoilusebyalmostwhilenaturalgasgelyabatedbyCCSremainingstablekeyinpowerindustryandforblueH2)ddemandmultipliedbygrowingtomorethanoftherymixbyenariosensuringaccesstotrieswithincreasinglivingstandards33TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022traditionaluseofbiomasswastebiofuelsbiogasRupturRuptureEndUSERSSUPPLIERSCCS~3GtWorldenergy-relatedCO2emissionsEndUSERSSUPPLIERSCCS~3GtexpectfromnonOECDCCSNBSneededforNetZeroEnergy-relatedCO2emissions3015CCS~6,515DAC**,NBS…2050Momentum2050Momentum2050RuptureEnergy-relatedCO2emissionsabatementsNZcountriescommitmentsMomentumChinandiaOtherAsiaRoWRupture?AllsectorshugelydecreasingCO2emissionsinRupture2050(PowerIndustryResComandTransportvs19)CSmainlyinpowergenerationandindustrylizedtechnologiessuchasDACaswellnsrequiredtolowerresidualemissionsGtNature-BasedSolutions**DirectAirNature-BasedSolutions**DirectAirCapture?NZ2050countries’pledgesdecreasing2050emissionsby3Gt,requiringstrongabatementsfromnon-OECDcountries?Asiarepresents70%ofcumulativeabatementsneededtoescenarioeshNetZerogloballyRupturRuptureLowcarbonPower3000Electricitynetworks20001000Low-carbonpower(Solar,Wind,ESS*andElectrolysers1000Oil&Gas2015202020302015202020302050ilGasdevelopmentsarerequireduntilatleastthemidentingmaintenancespendingtosatisfycustomerdemandmsrequirementandelectrolyserdeploymentlowstmentisestimatedtodoublebyandtotriplebytworksinvestmenttobecomeaslargeasinlowcarbonpoweredinsolaronshorewindkm2Onshorewind(~5500GW):300000–600000km2SolarPV(~15000GW):200000–300000km2totallandsurface~40%Low-densityvegetation<1%LandforRENealitiesLandrichcountriesegUSChinachallengemaybeverylong-tothedemandcentersLandconstrainedcountriesegEuropestrongpublicsupportorquired35TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022Energy-StorageSystemsRupturRuptureRupture+:howtoreach1.5°CrsappliedontheRupturescenariofromonwards?Industry:fossilenergyconsumptionin2050halved,replacedbycarbon-freendbioenergyforpetrochemicals?Transport:10%moreLDVsswitchtocarbon-freeelectricityin2040;20%morestandAfrica?ResCom:fossilenergyconsumptionhalvedin2050,replacedbycarbon-freety?Power:furtherincreaseincarbon-freeelectricitygeneration;coalcompletelyompowergenerationin?CCS:7,6GtCO2in2050,consistentwithIEANZEEnergy-relatedCO2emissions3015MomentumRuptureRupture+20502015202020252030203520402050Meeting1.5°C*requiresanotherstep-changesinenergysupply&demand,drivenbyregulation,technologyandbehavior36TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022AtP50RuptureRupture+20001000100OtherrenewablesSolar&Wind50Bioenergy*HydroNuclearNaturalgasOilCoalRuptureIEANZERupture+2050Rupture2050Rupture+2050IEANZE20152020202520302035204020452050higherinthanininRuptureasinRuptureignificantlytoMbdinclosetoIEANZEMbdbutwithaverydifferenttrajectorylectricityandlowcarbonHincreaseshareintransportpushinguppowergenerationforgreenH37TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022raditionaluseofbiomasswastebiofuelsbiogasRuptureRupture+Energy-relatedCO2emissions~500-550GtCO2~200GtCO2tobecapturedby2100EnergyrelatedCOemissionsreachnetzeroaround2050Overshoottobecapturedfrom2050to2100roughly200GtCO2(+/-confidenceinterval)consistentwithCIPCCscenariosContinuedContinuedcleantechR&DrequiredtoreachNet-Zerotargets38TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022*C1=limitwarmingto1,5°C(>50%)withnoorlimitedovershootRuptureRupture+39TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022口Theshort-termtrajectoryofglobalenergydemandisnotgoingintherightdirection.Moreeffortsareneededtodecarbonizewhileensuringaffordability口Thecurrentcrisisisanopportunitytoincreaseandanchorenergyefficiencymeasures,whicharecriticaltoachievetheParisagreementves口IntheOECD,theelectrificationofend-userdemandisastructuralevolutionthathelpsreduceemissionsandincreaseenergyefficiency.ncleanpowerandelectricalgridsisessentialforthesuccessofthiselectrification口Innon-OECDcountries,inparticularinAfrica,switchingawayfromtraditionalbiomasstomodernenergywillimproveenergyefficiencywhiledardsandeconomicdevelopmenttogrowingpopulations口Naturalgasplaysakeyroleintheenergytransition:itensuresfirmpowertocomplementrenewablesandreplacescoalinallsectorsoffinalitsgrowthwillbeaccompaniedbycarboncaptureandmethaneemissionscontrolsolutions口H2andSustainableLiquidFuelsarepromisingdecarbonizationdriversbutwillnotscaleupbefore2030;inthemeantime,renewablediesellldevelop口Thecurrentdecadeisdecisive:investmentinlowcarbonpowermustdoubleto2030toreach1.5T$/year.Meanwhile,investmentinnewoilsrequireduntilatleastthemidstosatisfycustomerdemandeveninawellbelowCscenario40TotalEnergiesEnergyOutlook2022AppendixationWorldprimaryenergydemand(PJ/d)MOMENTUMRUPTURE2019Coal444Oil518Naturalgas385Nuclear83Hydro42Solar11Wind14Bioenergy*156Otherrenewables13Total1665Worldpowergeneration('000TWh)2019Coal10Oil1Naturalgas6Nuclear3Hydro4Solar1Wind1Bioenergy*1Otherrenewables0Total27203020402050CAGR19/50