基于過去7年開工行情打分模型：開工行情中賠率和勝率皆優(yōu)的8大細分領域

策略研究告級說明告大細分領域—基于過去7年開工行情打分模型日期：2023-02-19：鄭小霞執(zhí)業(yè)證書號：S0010520080007郵箱：zhengxx@：劉超執(zhí)業(yè)證書號：S0010520090001郵箱：liuchao@發(fā)生季節(jié)性春季開工行情主要是由于國內(nèi)返工復工時間具備較穩(wěn)定的勝率皆優(yōu)，性價比最高A告2告2/10正文目錄1節(jié)后至兩會結(jié)束前后的固定時期內(nèi)，市場存在季節(jié)性開工行情 32重點把握8大開工行情中賠率勝率皆優(yōu)的細分領域 5圖表12016-2022年7年間，開工行情(春節(jié)結(jié)束-兩會結(jié)束前后)，相關行業(yè)平均表現(xiàn) 4情及部分優(yōu)勢行業(yè)的具體市場表現(xiàn) 4圖表3開工相關二級行業(yè)賠率+勝率的打分模型 6圖表4基建開工相關申萬二級行業(yè)在開工季行情期間的市場表現(xiàn) 7告3告3/10場存在工行情有色金屬、機械設備、煤炭、公用事業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)、鋼鐵、交通運輸、石油石化、銀行)逐個進行春節(jié)開工表現(xiàn)復盤回顧，發(fā)現(xiàn)在每年某個固定時期內(nèi)均存在基建開工情主要原因在于：一方面春節(jié)假期后，復工返工逐步增多，生產(chǎn)建設開工情況也將整體逐；高預期，這種預期的證實或者證偽往往需要等到兩會結(jié)束前后，這樣的政開工行情期間相關行業(yè)取得絕對收益和超額收益的概率高且穩(wěn)定。我們選用準。而我們在復盤回顧過去7年開工季行情中顯示，相關行業(yè)在這段時期內(nèi)取得絕取得了正收益率，有6個年份取得了超額收益，其中平均收益率為的季節(jié)性效應，具有優(yōu)秀的勝率(發(fā)生概率)和賠率(超額收益)，因此對于市場而言這是一告4告4/10圖表12016-2022年7年間，開工行情(春節(jié)結(jié)束-兩會結(jié)束前后)，相關行業(yè)平均表現(xiàn)基準及相關一級行業(yè)1%8%1%5%4%工.7%備公用事業(yè)產(chǎn).6%石化7%5%4%Wind程圖表22016-2022年7年間，開工行情及部分優(yōu)勢行業(yè)的具體市場表現(xiàn)行情起始春節(jié)結(jié)束2016/02/152017/02/032018/02/222019/02/112020/02/042021/02/182022/02/07開工行情結(jié)束時間2016/03/212017/03/242018/03/142019/03/222020/03/052021/03/182022/03/03“兩會”結(jié)束時間2016/03/132017/03/152018/03/202019/03/152020/05/282021/03/112022/03/11萬得基準漲跌9.5%4.8%5.5%25.1%16.6%-7.0%2.4%環(huán)保收益6.3%9.2%7.8%30.1%23.9%17.9%8.2%超額-3.2%4.4%2.2%4.9%7.3%24.9%5.7%建筑建材收益12.5%10.5%9.7%27.1%30.3%-1.3%-0.3%超額3.0%5.7%4.1%2.0%13.7%5.7%-2.7%建筑裝飾收益10.7%11.8%4.9%21.3%21.8%10.1%6.9%超額1.2%7.0%-0.6%-3.9%5.3%17.1%4.4%基礎化工收益9.5%4.8%7.1%26.0%17.4%-5.8%8.9%超額0.1%0.0%1.6%0.9%0.8%1.2%6.5%有色金屬收益14.5%4.1%7.2%27.6%14.8%-2.1%16.2%超額5.0%-0.7%1.7%2.5%-1.8%4.9%13.7%告5告5/10加粗標紅數(shù)字表示該年的開工行情某行業(yè)存在超額收益領域收益率的次數(shù)越多，則配置價值越突出，越值得重點配置。比比比告6告6/10比圖表3開工相關二級行業(yè)賠率+勝率的打分模型二級行業(yè)平均收益率超額收益率打分性價比二級行業(yè)平均收益率超額收益率打分性價比次數(shù)(勝率)次數(shù)(勝率)水泥16.0%7.9%613.9房屋建設9.9%1.8%56.8非金屬材料16.0%7.8%512.8普鋼11.6%3.5%36.5環(huán)保設備15.9%7.8%512.8農(nóng)化制品10.2%2.1%46.1專業(yè)工程14.9%6.8%612.8油服工程10.2%2.1%46.1工程咨詢14.8%6.7%612.7化設備10.0%1.8%45.8環(huán)境治理14.6%6.5%612.5工程機械9.1%1.0%45.0金屬新材料14.6%6.4%612.4橡膠8.9%0.8%44.8燃氣13.6%5.5%611.5玻璃玻纖9.9%1.7%34.7冶鋼原料14.3%6.2%410.2房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)9.3%1.2%34.2裝修裝飾12.5%4.3%59.39.1%1.0%34.0基礎建設12.1%4.0%59.0焦炭8.7%0.5%33.5通用設備10.9%2.8%68.8航空機場8.6%0.5%33.5裝修建材10.9%2.7%68.7物流7.4%-0.7%43.3航運港口11.8%3.7%58.7鐵路公路7.3%-0.8%32.2塑料12.7%4.6%48.6軌交設備7.0%-1.2%38專用設備11.0%2.9%57.9化學纖維7.0%-1.2%20.8工業(yè)金屬11.9%3.7%47.7城商行4.6%-3.6%3-0.6化學原料11.6%3.4%47.4煉化貿(mào)易5.1%-3.1%2-1.1化學制品9.5%1.4%67.42.4%-5.8%2-3.8特鋼10.2%2.0%57.0股份銀行2.1%-6.0%1-5.0煤炭開采11.9%3.8%36.8性價比=賠率+勝率告7告7/10圖表4基建開工相關申萬二級行業(yè)在開工季行情期間的市場表現(xiàn)基準漲跌9.5%4.8%5.5%25.1%16.6%-7.0%2.4%水泥收益漲跌17.5%15.7%9.9%22.0%32.2%6.4%8.4%超額收益8.0%11.0%4.3%-3.1%15.7%13.4%6.0%非金屬材料收益漲跌4.9%10.5%17.6%23.3%21.9%8.0%25.3%超額收益-4.6%5.8%12.1%-1.8%5.3%15.1%22.9%環(huán)保設備收益漲跌6.6%3.7%11.8%35.0%28.5%22.1%3.6%超額收益-2.9%-1.0%6.2%9.9%12.0%29.1%1.2%專業(yè)工程收益漲跌7.0%15.9%7.2%29.7%25.3%10.8%8.4%超額收益-2.5%11.1%1.6%4.6%8.7%17.8%6.0%工程咨詢收益漲跌14.4%4.3%10.6%27.4%25.3%12.3%9.5%超額收益4.9%-0.4%5.0%2.3%8.8%19.3%7.1%環(huán)境治理收益漲跌6.3%9.7%7.4%29.6%23.2%17.3%8.9%超額收益-3.2%4.9%1.9%4.5%6.7%24.3%6.5%金屬新材料收益漲跌13.4%9.1%11.7%31.5%16.2%12.3%7.7%超額收益4.0%4.3%6.2%6.4%-0.4%19.4%5.3%燃氣收益漲跌9.7%6.7%10.3%36.9%10.6%8.0%13.1%超額收益0.2%1.9%4.8%11.8%-6.0%15.0%10.6%冶鋼原料收益漲跌19.0%6.8%-1.1%22.3%8.7%32.0%12.4%超額收益9.5%2.1%-6.7%-2.8%-7.8%39.0%10.0%裝修裝飾收益漲跌17.0%12.7%4.6%26.1%13.1%9.5%4.2%超額收益7.5%7.9%-1.0%1.0%-3.5%16.6%1.8%基礎建設收益漲跌9.8%10.6%3.7%19.6%26.8%9.7%4.7%超額收益0.3%5.8%-1.8%-5.5%10.3%16.7%2.3%通用設備收益漲跌7.0%7.0%9.1%31.6%20.6%-3.1%3.9%超額收益-2.5%2.3%3.6%6.5%4.0%4.0%1.5%裝修建材收益漲跌10.5%8.3%10.2%32.3%28.3%-5.5%-8.1%超額收益1.0%3.6%4.7%7.2%11.8%1.5%-10.5%航運港口收益漲跌3.5%9.7%6.0%30.0%6.2%11.6%15.6%超額收益-6.0%4.9%0.5%4.9%-10.4%18.6%13.2%塑料收益漲跌8.9%7.1%5.4%38.6%32.4%-4.5%1.1%超額收益-0.6%2.3%-0.2%13.4%15.8%2.5%-1.3%專用設備收益漲跌8.9%9.1%6.9%30.7%22.9%-9.1%7.8%超額收益-0.6%4.3%1.4%5.6%6.4%-2.1%5.3%工業(yè)金屬收益漲跌12.6%1.0%-0.6%26.4%14.4%9.9%19.2%超額收益3.1%-3.7%-6.1%1.3%-2.2%16.9%16.7%化學原料收益漲跌8.9%4.4%6.5%31.7%15.4%0.7%13.3%超額收益-0.6%-0.4%1.0%6.6%-1.2%7.7%10.9%化學制品收益漲跌9.2%6.1%8.3%26.0%18.1%-5.9%5.0%超額收益-0.3%1.4%2.8%0.9%1.6%1.1%2.6%特鋼收益漲跌13.3%-0.8%-0.1%33.0%22.8%0.1%3.0%超額收益3.8%-5.6%-5.7%7.9%6.3%7.1%0.5%告8告8/10煤炭開采收益漲跌14.1%4.2%-0.8%14.9%11.2%14.1%25.8%超額收益4.6%-0.6%-6.3%-10.2%-5.4%21.1%23.4%房屋建設收益漲跌12.2%7.9%0.8%10.2%17.3%8.5%12.4%超額收益2.7%3.2%-4.8%-14.9%0.7%15.5%10.0%普鋼收益漲跌10.9%2.0%-1.7%16.2%12.8%30.0%11.3%超額收益1.4%-2.8%-7.3%-8.9%-3.7%37.0%8.8%農(nóng)化制品收益漲跌3.9%2.8%7.9%22.5%20.3%-0.1%14.1%超額收益-5.6%-2.0%2.4%-2.6%3.8%7.0%11.7%油服工程收益漲跌2.1%-2.6%8.1%25.6%4.5%5.0%28.8%超額收益-7.4%-7.3%2.6%0.5%-12.1%12.1%26.4%自動化設備收益漲跌7.8%11.8%13.9%30.5%17.9%-14.4%2.2%超額收益-1.7%7.1%8.4%5.4%1.4%-7.4%-0.2%工程機械收益漲跌12.4%14.8%2.5%30.8%25.5%-17.9%-4.2%超額收益2.9%10.0%-3.0%5.7%8.9%-10.9%-6.6%橡膠收益漲跌7.2%4.1%7.7%24.4%17.0%-4.0%6.0%超額收益-2.3%-0.7%2.2%-0.7%0.5%3.0%3.6%玻璃玻纖收益漲跌6.5%2.2%6.1%35.8%26.2%-9.4%1.5%超額收益-3.0%-2.5%0.6%10.7%9.6%-2.4%-0.9%房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)收益漲跌7.3%3.0%1.2%23.0%18.5%9.7%2.5%超額收益-2.2%-1.8%-4.4%-2.1%1.9%16.7%0.1%收益漲跌7.4%2.4%6.0%17.9%8.9%12.2%9.1%超額收益-2.1%-2.3%0.5%-7.2%-7.7%19.2%6.7%焦炭收益漲跌2.6%-4.0%2.8%25.9%13.2%4.0%15.9%超額收益-6.9%-8.8%-2.7%0.8%-3.3%11.1%13.5%航空機場收益漲跌3.3%6.8%3.9%21.1%11.1%10.6%3.7%超額收益-6.1%2.1%-1.7%-4.0%-5.5%17.6%1.2%物流收益漲跌6.0%2.5%7.7%26.0%13.4%-6.9%3.4%超額收益-3.5%-2.3%2.2%0.9%-3.1%0.1%1.0%鐵路公路收益漲跌9.7%3.3%3.3%14.8%6.8%6.1%7.3%超額收益0.2%-1.5%-2.3%-10.3%-9.7%13.2%4.9%軌交設備收益漲跌6.6%4.9%2.7%12.5%13.4%5.1%3.5%超額收益-2.9%0.2%-2.8%-12.6%-3.2%12.1%1.1%化學纖維收益漲跌8.4%2.2%5.3%27.5%13.3%-15.6%7.8%超額收益-1.1%-2.6%-0.3%2.4%-3.3%-8.6%5.4%城商行收益漲跌9.9%-0.7%-1.0%11.4%6.7%3.0%2.7%超額收益0.4%-5.4%-6.6%-13.7%-9.9%10.0%0.3%煉化貿(mào)易收益漲跌13.3%-2.2%3.4%16.8%8.4%-