畢馬威：2022年印度經(jīng)濟洞察報告(EN)

IndianEconomy

Insights

KPMGinIndia

July2022

—

home.kpmg/in

TheservicesPurchasingManagersIndex(PMI)alsorose

lowinJanuary2022,supportedbyrelaxationsinCOVID-

19restrictionsandariseindomesticdemand.

inFY21,whilethefiscaldeficitforFY23hasbeenestimatedat6.4percent.

inFebruaryandMarch2022,afterreachingasix-month

Preface—(1/2)

Thedawningoftheyear2022broughtinasenseoffreshoptimismandopportunity,evenwhileIndiaaswellastheworldcontinuetonavigateturbulence;suchastheeconomicconsequencesofthehopefully-abatingCOVID-19pandemic,risinggeopoliticalsituationsdislocatingglobalsupplychainsandunsettlingenergymarkets,inflationandglobalcurrencyinstability.However,Indiacurrentlylookssettobeonapathofrecoveryfrompandemic-induceddownturns,withthegovernment’sestimateofGDPbeing8.7percentforFY22.TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)hasslightlylowereditsgrowthforecastforFY23to8.2percent.

RecentdevelopmentsinEuropeanditsattendanteffectsonglobalenergymarkets,theCOVID-19inducedsupplylogjamsinChina,theconsequencesofinflation,andtheincreasinglyvisibleeffectsofclimatechangeliketheheatdomeoverNorthIndia,allrevealtheneedforgovernmentsandfirmstostaywatchfulandagile,andtorespondinreal-timetoincreasinglyacceleratingchangeandevolutioninthephysical,social,andeconomicenvironment.

ThegovernmentinitsrecentBudgetandotherpolicyactionshasbeenfocusingonrevivingtheeconomybyincentivisingdomesticmanufacturingandvalue-addition,asalsobyinvestingresourcesinthecreationandmodernisationofpublicinfrastructure.

Budget2022:Thefoundationforeconomicgrowthforthenext25years

TheUnionBudgetforFY23standsoutwithitscommitmentstowardsbolsteringinfrastructurecreationwithanenhancedcapexcommitmentof35.4percentoverthepreviousyearandfocusingonpolicyinitiativesforenhancingpublicprivatepartnerships(PPP)intheinfrastructurespace.Thebudgethasputforthavisionof‘AmritKaal’,anditsdominantthemesareall-inclusive

Theindicatorsandleversofgrowth

Thecurrentsofeconomicrevivalarediscernibleinthegrowthdataofkeyindicators,suchastotalGSTcollections,quantumofdigitaltransactions,coalproduction,electricitydemand,petroleumproductsconsumption,railandairpassengerandfreighttraffic,andFASTagcollections.Automobileregistrationsacrossmostcategoriesalsorecordedanupwardtrend,despitechallengesaroundsemiconductoravailability.Theagriculturesectorisalsodisplayinganupturnasincreasingcropdiversificationandmonsoonpredictionsforthisyeartendtoconvergearoundnormalcy.

growthandwelfare,technology-enableddevelopment,climateaction,energytransition,andfosteringprivateinvestments.WithanoutlayofINR20,000crore,thebudgethasintenselyfocusedoninfrastructurecreationandreplenishment,whilealsoattemptingtobringnewefficienciesparticularlythroughtheinstrumentalityofthePMGatiShaktiprogramme,encompassingsevenengines:roads,railways,airports,ports,masstransport,waterways,andlogisticsinfrastructure.ThebudgethasalsoattemptedtocorrectthedecliningtrendofprivateinvestmentininfrastructurebyproposingamorerobustPPPenvironment.Itisexpectedthatthesemeasurestakentogetherwillfostergreatereconomicvigour,ramp-upthepaceofjobcreation,andcatalyseconsumerdemand,whilealsocrowding-ingreaterprivateandforeigninvestment.

TheIndexofEightCoreIndustries(ICI)showedayearonyear(y-o-y)growthof8.4percentinApril2022.Furthermore,severalsectorsarereapingthebenefitsofthegovernment’spushtowardstheProductionLinkedIncentive(PLI)Scheme,promotinglocalmanufacturinganddevelopingglobalcompetitiveness.Thegovernmenthasestimatedafiscaldeficitof6.7percentoftheGDPforFY22,lowerthan9.2percentrecorded

Source(s):“Budget2022-2023,MinistryofFinance”,GoI,01February2022;“INDEXOFEIGHTCOREINDUSTRIESFORAPRIL,2022UPBY8.4PERCENTOVERLASTYEAR’,PIB,31May2022;“WorldEconomicOutlook(Aprilupdate),IMF,April2022;“Stateoftheeconomy”,RBI,17January2022;“ProvisionalEstimatesofAnnualNationalIncome,2021-22andQuarterlyEstimatesofGrossDomesticProductfortheFourthQuarter(JAN-MAR),2021-22”,PIB,31May2022;“MonetaryPolicyReport–April2022”,R08April2022;;“FISCALDEFICITESTIMATEDAT6.4%OFGDPIN2022-23”,MinistryofFinance,PIB,01February2022;“INDIA’S

MERCHANDISETRADE:PreliminaryDataMarch2022”,MinistryofCommerce&Industry,PIB,04April2022;“ConsumerPriceIndexNumbersOnBase2012=100ForRuralUrbanAndCombinedForTheMonthOfMarch2022”,MoSPI,12April2022;“FISCALDEFICITESTIMATEDAT6.4%OFGDPIN2022-23”,MinistryofFinance,PIB,01February2022;IHSMarkitIndiaServicesPMI,IHSMarkit;“Uniongovernmentaccountsataglance,provisionalaccountsfor2021-2022”,ControllerGeneralofAccounts,MinistryofFinance;allaccessedon20June2022

?2022KPMGAssuranceandConsultingServicesLLP,anIndianLimitedLiabilityPartnershipandamemberfirmoftheKPMGglobalorganizationofindependentmemberfirmsaffiliatedwithKPMGInternationalLimited,aprivateEnglishcompanylimitedbyguarantee.Allrightsreserved.

2

Preface—(2/2)

Insum,thenationaleconomy,incommonwithothercountries,istraversingaperiod

whererapidchangeistheonlyconstant.Duringsuchtimes,policyapproachesand

financialinstrumentsneedtobeconstantlyreinventedandrefreshed,whilefirms

Concerns&challenges

needtobeagile,flexibleandwatchfulforensuringdesirableoutcomesinthe

economy,aswellasinbusiness.

Periodsofeconomicturbulencealsocreatenewopportunities,anditisthe

expectationthatrecentpolicymeasureswillsignificantlycontributetoimproving

India’spositionasakeynodeintheglobalsupplychain,whilereinvigoratingthe

economicpulseofthecountry.

Whilevaccinationpermeationandabatingproliferationtrendsindicatethattheadverseconsequencesofthe

pandemicarewellbehindus;therippleeffectsoftheRussia-Ukrainesituationandrisinggeopoliticalunrest

betweenChinaandtheWest;continuetohavesignificanteconomicandfinancialconsequencesthatneedtobe

addressedwithdexterityandspeed.Itisamatterofsomeconcernthatglobalsupplychainsaregettingimpacted,

andthecurrencyandstockmarketsareexhibitingsignificantvolatility;whilecommodityandenergypriceshave

seenrecentsharprises.Theseverityofthisyear’ssummerhasalsoledtounprecedentedspikesindemandfor

energyleadingtoalargerdependenceoncoal,whichmighthaveimplicationsonthepaceofIndia’sambitious

energytransitioncommitments.Thesefactorshaveimpactedtheeconomyparticularlyintermsofrisinginflation,

withtheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)risingtoahighofnearly7.8percentinApril2022andstayingoverthe

ReserveBank’sthresholdforthefourthstraightmonth.

India’stradedeficitroseby87.5percentinFY22comparedwithFY21—anincrementinimportsactingasthe

primaryfactor—despitearecordriseinexports.Forinstance,merchandiseexportsexceededtheUSD40billion

markforthefirsttimeandrecordedUSD40.4billioninMarch2022,risingbyahealthy14.5percenty-o-y.

However,importssoaredtoUSD59.1billion,markinganincreaseof20.1percentduringthesameperiod,leading

toatradedeficitofalmostUSD18.7billion.Thiswasprimarilydrivenbyhigherimportsofpetroleumproducts,

electronicgoods,andgold.

Theroadahead

ThechallengespresentedbytheRussia-Ukrainesituationhaveintensifiedtheinflationarypressureamongadvancedas

wellasemergingeconomies,impellingthemtorevisetheirinflationprojections.GivenIndia’srelianceonimportforcrude

oil,naturalgasandothercommodities,itcouldfaceafurtherspikeininflationandcurrentaccountdeficitasa

consequenceoftheseunanticipateddevelopments.

Variouscentralbanksgloballyhaveembarkedonapathofnormalisationandmonetarypolicytightening,withensuing

capitaloutflowsfromIndiaandcurrencydepreciation.TheMonetaryPolicyCommittee(MPC)oftheReserveBankof

India(RBI)hasrecentlyassessedthattheinflationoutlookposessufficientriskofunsettlinginflationexpectations,andin

anunexpectedoff-cyclemove,hashikedthepolicyreporateto4.9percentinJune2022from4.4percent.Inaddition,

theRBIalsohashikedthecashreserveratio(CRR)to4.5percent,whichwaslastseenatthislevelinSeptember2012.

Source(s):“EnhancedcapitalspendingintheBudgetwillhave3-4timesmultipliereffectontheeconomy:UnionMinisterPiyushGoyal”,MinistryofCommerce&Industry,PIB,05February2022;“MonetaryPolicyStatement,2022-23ResolutionoftheMonetaryPolicyCommittee(MPC)April6-8,2022”,RBI,08April2022;CPIPressRelease,MoSPI;“INDIA’SMERCHANDISETRADE:PreliminaryDataMarch2022”,MinistryofCommerce&Industry,PIB,04April2022,“MaintenanceofCashReserveRatio(CRR)”,RBI,4May2022;“MonetaryPolicyStatement,2022-23ResolutionoftheMonetaryPolicyCommittee(MPC)June6-8,2022”,RBI,08June2022;allaccessedon21June2022

?2022KPMGAssuranceandConsultingServicesLLP,anIndianLimitedLiabilityPartnershipandamemberfirmoftheKPMGglobalorganizationofindependentmemberfirmsaffiliatedwithKPMGInternationalLimited,aprivateEnglishcompanylimitedbyguarantee.Allrightsreserved.

3

Parameters/indicators

Source

Executivesummary(1/3)

ClickhereforaquickviewonallKPIs

Description

—TheGVAwitnessedagrowthrateof3.9percentinQ4FY22andisestimatedtohavegrownby8.1percentinFY22.

GrossValueAdded(GVA)

Link

Agriculture

—TheagriculturesectorgrowthinQ4FY22was4.1percenthigherascomparedtothepreviousyear

—Miningandquarryingandelectricitysectorsregisteredy-o-ygrowthof6.7percentand4.5percent,respectively,duringQ4FY22;however,

Industry

—InQ4FY22,theGVAoftrade,hotels,transportandcommunicationincreasedby5.3percent.Financial,realestateandprofessionalservices

Link

manufacturingdeclinedby0.2percent

increasedby4.3percent,whilepublicadministrationanddefenceservicesgrewby7.7percent.

Services

IndexofIndustrial

Production(IIP)andemployment

—IIPwitnessedanoverally-o-ygrowthof1.7percentinFebruary2022,whileitcontractedby4.7percentm-o-m,reaching132.1.

—Unemploymentratereached7.6percentinMarch2022from8.1percentinFebruary2022.

Link

Inflation

—WholesalePriceIndex(WPI)inflationreachedahighof15.1percentinApril2022from14.6percentinMarch2022.Inaddition,ConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)inflationincreasedfrom7.0percentinMarch2022to7.8percentinApril2022.

Link

—ThefiscaldeficitforFY22hasbeenestimatedat6.7percentofGDP,withtotalreceiptsofINR22.1lakhcroreandtotalexpendituresofINR37.9lakhcroreinMarch2022.Thegovernmenthastargetedafiscaldeficitof6.4percentofGDPforFY23.

—GSTcollectionsreachedanewrecordlevelofINR1.42lakhcroreinMarch2022.

Government’srevenueandexpenditure

Link

Trade,FDIandforeignexchangereserves

—InQ3FY22,IndiarecordedFDIequityinflowsofUSD12billion,decreasing11.5percentfromthepreviousquarter.Further,theforeignexchangereservesreachedUSD600.4billioninthesecondhalfofApril2022,afterwitnessinganalltimehighofUSD642.0billioninOctober

2021.

Link

—Newcompanyregistrationsstoodat14,608inFebruary2022,witnessinga20percentrisecomparedwiththepreviousmonth.OutofthetotalcompaniesregisteredinFebruary2022,themajorsharecomprisedofcompaniesinbusinessservices.

—ConsumerconfidenceroseinMarch2022afterdecreasingslightlyinJanuary2022,whilethebusinessconfidenceindexdecreasedslightlyin

Q4FY22.

Link

Consumerand

businessconfidence

index

?2022KPMGAssuranceandConsultingServicesLLP,anIndianLimitedLiabilityPartnershipandamemberfirmoftheKPMGglobalorganizationofindependentmemberfirmsaffiliatedwithKPMGInternationalLimited,aprivateEnglishcompanylimitedbyguarantee.Allrightsreserved.

4

Parameters/indicators

Source

Executivesummary(3/3)

Description

—AluminiumproductionincreasedinQ3FY22andwitnessedagrowthof1.1percentcomparedwithQ2FY22,whilecopperproduction

increasedby5.1percentduringthesameperiod.

—Thepricesofaluminiumincreasedby56.8percenty-o-yinFebruary2022.Thepricesofcopperreachedanine-monthhighinFebruary

2022,whilesteelpricesalsoattainedafive-monthhighinMarch2022.

—Domestictractorsalesregistereda6percentdeclineinFY22.Fertilisersalesincreasedby20.8percenty-o-yduringMarch2022.

—TheIIPforminingstoodat123.2inFebruary2022.India’scoalproductionshowedaconsistentincreaseinH2FY22,onlyreducingmarginallyinFebruary2022.

—TheIIPforconstructionandcapitalgoodshavebothshownarecoverypostthedeclinethatwasobservedduringthesecondCOVID-19wave.

—TheIndiancapitalmarketindicesexhibitedapositivereactiontothebudgetannouncementsinFebruary2022.However,theongoing

geopoliticalsituationbetweenRussiaandUkrainehaveshownitseffectontheindices.

Aluminiumandcopper

Commodityprices

Agriculture

Link

Link

Link

Link

Link

Link

CapitalandConstructionIIP

Miningandquarrying

Financialmarkets

Governmentinitiativesandoutlook

Parameter/indicator

Description

Source

Link

—ThegovernmentandtheRBIannouncedinitiativesaimedatenhancingliquidity,creditexpansionandunveilingnewreformsandacts.

Governmentregulations

andinitiatives

Outlook—MajorfinancialinstitutionshaveforecastedIndia’seconomicgrowthinFY23intherangeof6.9percentto9.8percent.

Link

?2022KPMGAssuranceandConsultingServicesLLP,anIndianLimitedLiabilityPartnershipandamemberfirmoftheKPMGglobalorganizationofindependentmemberfirmsaffiliatedwithKPMGInternationalLimited,aprivateEnglishcompanylimitedbyguarantee.Allrightsreserved.

5

Keyindicators

—Asnapshot

Legend:

Keyindicators—Economicoverview(1/3)

BB

acktoexecsummary

Macroeconomicindicator

Q3FY21

Q4FY21

Q1FY22

Q2FY22

Q3FY22

Q4FY22

GrossValueAdded

(GVA)

2.1

5.7

18.1

8.3

4.7

3.9

Agricultural

4.1

2.8

2.2

3.2

2.5

4.1

Miningandquarrying

-5.3

-3.9

18.0

14.5

9.2

6.7

Manufacturing

8.4

15.2

49.0

5.6

0.3

-0.2

Construction

6.6

18.3

71.3

8.1

-2.8

2.0

Electricity,gas,watersupplyandutilityservices

1.5

3.2

13.8

8.5

3.7

4.5

Trade,hotels,transportandcommunication

-10.1

-3.4

34.3

9.6

6.3

5.3

Financial,realestateandprofessionalservices

10.3

8.8

2.3

6.1

4.2

4.3

Publicadministration,defenseandotherservices

-2.9

1.7

6.2

19.4

16.7

7.7

Numbersarey-o-ypercentchange

Macroeconomic

indicator

Unit

Q3FY21

Q4FY21

Q1FY22

Keyhighlights

Q2FY22

Q3FY22

Q4FY22

Employmentunder

MGNREGS

Million

-12.7

7.6

14.5

-5.6

-18.2

7.1

TotalGSTcollections

INRlakh

crore

21.3

9.5

-5.3

2.4

13.6

6.1

Foreignexchangereserves

USD

million

7.1

-0.3

5.3

4.7

-0.8

-2.5

Totalreceipts

INRlakh

crore

35.1

1.9

-3.0

0.5

19.3

-31.8

Totalexpenditure

INRlakh

crore

20.7

53.6

-33.3

-1.5

10.1

42.7

Foreigndirect

investmentequity

inflows

INR‘000

crore

-9.4

-62.5

117.5

-22.3

-10.3

NA

Numbersareq-o-qpercentchange

Macroeconomic

indicator

Unit

Q3FY21

Q4FY21

Q1FY22

Q2FY22

Q3FY22

Q4FY22

Unemploymentrate*

Percent

7.5

6.6

9.7

7.4

7.5

7.4

WPIinflationpercent(allcommodities)*

Percent

1.6

4.9

12.0

11.3

14.3

13.9

CPIinflationpercent(Combined)*

Percent

6.4

4.9

5.6

5.1

5.0

6.4

Numbersareaverageofthreemonths

—India’sGVAincreasedby3.9percentduringthefourthquarterofFY22comparedwiththepreviousyear,asa

resultofimprovingeconomicactivity

—India’sfuturegrowthtrajectorywillbedeterminedbyrecoveryinprivateconsumption,coolingdownofinflationand

positivechangesintheglobalgeopoliticaloutlook.Governmentinitiativessuchasspendingonpublic

infrastructureviavariousinitiativesislikelytoboosteconomicgrowth.

Highgrowth

Hugedecline

*Note:Q2FY21referstoJul2020toSep2020;percentchangeiscalculatedincomparisontofiguresfrompreviousquarters;QuarterlyWPIandCPIarecalculatedasanaverageofthethreemonths;WPIandCPIinflationtargetsareconsideredas5percentand4percentrespectively,withanallowedvarianceof2percentoneitherside,colourcodinghasbeendonebasisthat;Forunemploymentrate,differentshadesofredindicateslevelofunemploymentratei.e.darkredindicateshigherunemploymentandviceversa

?2022KPMGAssuranceandConsultingServicesLLP,anIndianLimitedLiabilityPartnershipandamemberfirmoftheKPMGglobalorganizationofindependentmemberfirmsaffiliatedwithKPMGInternationalLimited,aprivateEnglishcompanylimitedbyguarantee.Allrightsreserved.

7

Keyindicators—Services(2/3)

BB

acktoexecsummary

Sector

Indicator

Unit

Keyhighlights

Q3FY21

Q4FY21

Q1FY22

Q2FY22

Q3FY22

Q4FY22

Services

PMI*

Index

53.4

54.2

47.2

52.4

57.3

52.3

Imports

USD

billion

4.7

6.9

-5.9

11.2

12.3

NA

Exports

3.4

5.1

3.3

3.3

10.9

NA

Indexisaverageofthreemonths;Import-exportareinq-o-qpercentchange

—Whiletheservicessectorremainedintheexpansionzone,concernsregardinganotherwaveofCOVID-19hadanegativeimpactontheoutlookofthesector

—Further,theinternationaldemandforIndia’sserviceshaswitnessedarevivalwiththeopeningoftheeconomyandarapidvaccinationdrive.

Sector

Indicator

Unit

Q3FY21

Q4FY21

Q1FY22

Q2FY22

Q3FY22

Q4FY22

Financial

services

UPI

transactions

INRlakh

crore

30.0

14.1

12.5

24.0

24.6

10.7

PE

investments

USD

million

-9.6

-16.6

15.8

107.7

-1.5

-26.1

Transport

Railway

passengers

booked

Million

388.9

126.2

-47.8

68.8

50.6

NA

Airpassengersbooked

Million

111.1

24.8

-53.6

71.7

69.0

-15.6

Airfreight

volume

‘000

tonnes

19.6

1.7

-4.4

8.1

4.7

-8.1

Railfreight

volume

Million

tonnes

15.3

7.5

-6.4

-3.0

9.6

NA

Fasttag

collections

INRcrore

24.1

22.9

-7.0

21.2

12.7

10.9

E-waybills

generated

Million

19.9

6.2

-22.5

29.2

4.1

4.8

Telecomandentertainment

NumberoftotalactivesubscriberswithpayDTHoperators

Million

0.4

-2.0

0.4

-1.4

NA

NA

Numbersareq-o-qpercentchange

Highgrowth

Hugedecline

Legend:

*Note:Q2FY21referstoJul2020toSep2020;QuarterlyPMIcalculationshavebeendonebytakingaverageofthevaluesfromtheconstitutingmonths;PMIindexabove50hasbeenconsideredpositiveandbelow20hasbeenconsideredhighnegative

?2022KPMGAssuranceandConsultingServicesLLP,anIndianLimitedLiabilityPartnershipandamemberfirmoftheKPMGglobalorganizationofindependentmemberfirmsaffiliatedwithKPMGInternationalLimited,aprivateEnglishcompanylimitedbyguarantee.Allrightsreserved.

8

Legend:

Sector

Indicator

Unit

Q3FY21

Q4FY21

Q1FY22

Q2FY22

Q3FY22

Q4FY22

Manufacturing

PMI

Index

57.2

56.9

51.5

53.8

56.3

54.3

Imports

USD

billion

21.2

19.7

-3.6

16.2

13.5

NA

Exports

2.1

18.1

6.2

8.2

3.9

NA

Keyhighlights

Indexisaverageofthreemonths;Import-exportareinq-o-qpercentchange,

—ManufacturingPMIreacheda10-monthhighinNovember2021,afterwhichitcontractedslightly

—InFY22,India’smerchandiseexportsreachedandall-timehighofUSD418billionfromUSD292billioninFY21.

Keyindicators—Industry(3/3)

BB

acktoexecsummary

Sector

Indicator

Unit

Q3FY21

Q4FY21

Q1FY22

Q2FY22

Q3FY22

Q4FY22

Energy

Consumptionofpetroleumproducts

‘000tonnes

19.3

-0.4

-12.6

1.3

11.1

2.8

Consumptionof

naturalgas

Million

cubic

meter

0.5

-2.9

4.9

4.7

-3.1

NA

Electricitydemand

Billionunits

-6.3

5.6

2.7

7.5

-11.7

8.1

Automotive

Two-wheeler

registrations

Thousand

39.0

-11.1

-36.1

37.1

18.4

-11.7

Three-wheeler

registrations

Thousand

32.5

37.8

-59.4

129.4

30.0

3.1

Commercialvehicleregistration

Thousand

71.0

24.8

-42.6

56.9

5.3

21.1

Passengervehicleregistration

Thousand

52.8

0.4

-41.3

56.3

-2.5

5.2

Steel

Crudesteel

production

Million

tonnes

7.4

1.8

-7.6

8.6

2.7

6.0

Cement

Cementproductionindex

Index

140.4

166.0

146.1

148.1

152.5

NA

Agriculture

Tractorsales

Thousand

9.9

-6.2

-4.3

-3.6

4.5

-18.8

Fertilisersales

Million

tonnes

-1.2

-29.5

-4.8

28.0

0.0

-18.5

Miningandquarrying

Valueofmineral

production

INR‘00

crore

75.3

54.5

24.4

3.9

-11.4

NA

Coalproduction

Million

tonnes

38.6

29.2

-37.0

0.5

28.7

26.1

Indexisaverageofthreemonths;Numbersareq-o-qpercentchange

Highgrowth

Hugedecline

Note:Q2FY21referstoJul2020toSep2020;“India’sQ3manufacturingoutlookperksup,highproductioncostsworrying:FICCIbelow20hasbeenconsideredhighnegative

survey”,TheFederal,30January2022;QuarterlyPMIcalculationshavebeendonebytakingaverageofthevaluesfromtheconstitutingmonths;PMIindexabove50hasbeenconsideredpositiveand

?2022KPMGAssuranceandConsultingServicesLLP,anIndianLimitedLiabilityPartnershipandamemberfirmoftheKPMGglobalorganizationofindependentmemberfirmsaffiliatedwithKPMGInternationalLimited,aprivateEnglishcompanylimitedbyguarantee.Allrightsreserved.

9

Economic

performance

9.9

7.5

8.1

4.2

Economicoverview(1/2)

Backtoexecsummary

TheGVAgrewby3.9percentinQ4FY22,withminingandquarrying,andpublicadministration,defenceandotherservicesectorsleadingthegrowth

GVA(Y-o-Ypercentagechange),majorsectorsFY21FY22

11.5

3

11.5

11.1

12.6

3.32.2

-0.6

-4.8

-5.5

-3.6

-8.6

-7.3

-20.2

Public

Construction

Financial,Real

Mining&Quarrying

Manufacturing

Electricity,Gas,

OverallGVA

Agriculture,

Administration,

Estate&

WaterSupply&

Forestry&

Trade,Hotels,

Transport,

Defence&Other

ProfessionalServices

otherUtility

Fishing

Communication,

Services

Services

etc.

GVAquarterlygrowth

(Y-o-Ypercentagechange)

18.1

5.7

8.3

3.43.7

2.1

4.73.9

-5.9

-21.4

3Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22

AgriculturalGVAquarterlygrowth

(Y-o-Ypercentagechange)

6.8

4.1

3.4

2.5

2.8

4.1

3.2

3.2

2.2

3

3Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22

Keyhighlights

—India’sGVAisestimatedtohavegrownby8.1percentinFY22aftershrinkingby4.8percentinFY21,owingtogrowthwitnessedinalleightsectors

—ThegrowthcontinuedinQ4FY22,withGVAregisteringay-o-yincreaseof3.9percent,drivenmainlybyminingandservicessectors

—TheagriculturesectorgrowthinQ4FY22was4.1percenthigherascomparedtothepreviousyear

—InFY22,theagricultureGVAwitnessed3.0percenty-o-ygrowth.Theagriculturesectorhasreceivedadigitalpushintheformofannouncementssuchaskisandronesinunionbudget2022

—TheRussia-Ukrainesituationhasalso

createdashortageofagriculturalcommoditiessuchaswheatintheglobalmarket,forwhichthetwocountriesareamajorsource.

Note:FY22representstimeperiodofApril2021toMar2022;Q1FY22representsperiodofApril2021toJune2021andQ4FY21representsperiodofJanuary2021toMarch2021;ValuesforGVAcorrespondtoQuarterlyEstimatesofGVAatBasicPricesfor2021-22(at2011-12Prices);OtherServicesinPublicAdministration,Defence&OtherServicesincludesEducation,Health,Recreation,andotherPersonalServices

Source(s):ProvisionalEstimatesOfAnnualNationalIncome2021-22AndQuarterlyEstimatesOfGrossDomesticProductForTheFourthQuarter(Jan-Mar),2021-22,MinistryofStatistics&ProgrammeImplementation,31May2022;“ProvisionalestimatesofAnnualNationalIncome,2020-21andQuarterlyestimates(Q4)ofGrossDomesticProduct,2020-21”,PIB,MinistryofStatistics&ProgrammeImplementation,31May2021;“ProvisionalEstimatesofAnnualNationalIncome,2020-21andFourthQuarter(Q4)of2020-21”,MinistryofStatistics&ProgrammeImplementation;“UnionBudget2022:Techpushforagrisector”,IndiaNews,2February2022;”Farmsectorprojectedtogrowat2.6%inQ3FY22,downfrom4.1%ayearago