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美賽論文最終版

Introduction

SincethefirstcaseofCOVID-19wasreportedinWuhan,ChinainDecember2019,thevirushascausedworldwidefearandpanic.Theeffectsofthispandemicincludewidespreadillness,death,economicdecline,andsocialdisruption.Thevirusspreadsrapidlyamongindividuals,primarilythroughdropletsorclosecontactwithinfectedpeopleorcontaminatedsurfaces.TolimitthespreadofthevirusanddecreasetheimpactofCOVID-19,governmentsworldwidehaveencouragedormandatedsocialdistancingmeasures,includinglockdowns,schoolclosures,andworkingfromhome.Inthispaper,weexploretheeffectsofsocialdistancingmeasuresonthespreadofCOVID-19intheUnitedStatesandproposeanoptimalsocialdistancingstrategyforpolicymakers.

Methods

Weusedamodelbasedoncompartmentalepidemiologythatdividesapopulationintosusceptible,exposed,infected,andrecoveredclasses,incorporatingsocialdistancingmeasures(SDMs)asacontrolvariable.WeanalyzedtheeffectsofvariousSDMsonthecumulativenumberofcases,dailynewcases,andtheeffectivenessofdifferentinterventiontiming.WeadjustedthemodelparameterstofitthedatafromtheUnitedStatesfromMarch1toSeptember30,2020,andransimulationsonabiweeklybasisfromOctober1,2020,toMay31,2021.

Results

OurmodelsimulationsindicatethatSDMssignificantlyreducethespreadofCOVID-19,andtheoptimalSDMstrategyistoimplementearlyandstrictmeasuresforashortperiod.Startingearly,suchasimplementingSDMswhenthenumberofcasesreaches20permillioninhabitants,canreducethepeaksizeandtotalnumberofCOVID-19casesbyapproximately80%.AnearlierstartofmeasurescanreducethenumberofCOVID-19deathsbyalargermargin,sincedeathsarecausedbycumulativeinfections.FortheUnitedStates,wesuggestthefollowingSDMstrategyfromNovember2020toMay2021:(1)graduallyreducethedailycontactsby20%whenthenumberofcasesroseto50permillioninhabitants;(2)implementmorestrictSDMswhenthenumberofcasesreached200permillioninhabitants;and(3)graduallyremoveSDMswhenthenumberofcasesdroppedbelow50permillioninhabitants.Underthisstrategy,thetotalnumberofCOVID-19casescanbereducedbyapproximately60%comparedtonoSDMs,withminimaleconomiclosses.

Conclusion

OurstudysuggeststhatsocialdistancingmeasuresareeffectiveinreducingthetransmissionofCOVID-19,andtheoptimalSDMstrategyshouldbeimplementedearly,strictly,andforashorttime.WeproposeafeasibleandeffectiveSDMstrategyforpolicymakerstocontrolthespreadofCOVID-19whilebalancingtheeconomicandsocialimpacts.Ourmodelcanbeusedt

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