碳經(jīng)濟學深度報告清潔氫革命英高盛202224123

Goldman

Sachs

does

and

seeks

to

do

business

with

companies

covered

in

its

research

reports.

As

aresult,

investors

should

be

aware

that

the

?rm

may

have

a

con?ict

of

interest

that

could

affect

theobjectivity

of

this

report.

Investors

should

consider

this

report

as

only

a

single

factor

in

making

theirinvestment

decision.

For

Reg

AC

certi?cation

and

other

important

disclosures,

see

the

DisclosureAppendix,

or

go

to

/research/hedge.html.

Analysts

employed

by

non-US

af?liates

are

notregistered/quali?ed

as

research

analysts

with

FINRA

in

the

U.S.The

clean

hydrogen

revolutionThe

Goldman

Sachs

Group,

Inc.

Full

list

of

authors

insideMichele

Della

Vigna,

CFA+44

20

7552-9383michele.dellavigna@Goldman

Sachs

InternationalZoe

Clarke+44

20

7051-2816zoe.clarke@Goldman

Sachs

International

Note:

The

following

is

a

redacted

version

of

the

original

report

published

February

4,

2022

[144

pgs].EQUITY

RESEARCH

|

February

4,

2022

|

12:16

AM

GMT

Carbonomics

Clean

hydrogen

has

emerged

as

a

critical

pillar

to

any

aspiring

global

net

zero

path,

aiding

the

de-carbonization

of

c.15%

of

global

GHG

emissions,

we

estimate,

with

TAM

for

hydrogen

generation

alone

having

the

potential

to

double

to

c.US$250

bn

by

2030

and

reach

>US$1

tn

by

2050.

We

believe

it

is

now

time

to

revisit

the

clean

hydrogen

theme

as

policy,

affordability

and

scalability

seem

to

be

converging

to

create

unprecedented

momentum

for

the

clean

hydrogen

economy.

Policy

support

is

strengthening

globally,

with

>30

national

hydrogen

strategies

and

roadmaps

pledging

a

>400-fold

increase

in

clean

hydrogen

installed

capacity

this

decade

vs

2020

and

supportive

of

a

c.50-fold

increase

in

the

pace

of

annual

average

green

hydrogen

new

builds.

Scalability

is

already

revolutionizing

the

green

hydrogen

projects

pipeline,

with

scope

for

average

project

sizes

to

increase

100x+,

from

2MW

in

2020

to

>200MW

by

2025

and

a

GW

scale

by

2030,

leading

to

cost

de?ation

of

40%

for

electrolyzer

systems

by

2025E,

similar

to

what

has

been

observed

for

batteries

over

the

past

?ve

years.

Affordability

is

rapidly

improving

with

green

hydrogen

likely

to

be

at

cost

parity

with

grey

in

advantageous

regions

by

2025E

(US$1.5/kg

H2)

and

hydrogen

cost

parity

with

diesel

in

long-haul

heavy

road

transport

likely

as

early

as

2027E.

We

believe

clean

hydrogen

can

develop

into

a

major

global

market,

impacting

geopolitical

patterns

in

energy

supply,

and

we

examine

the

case

for

international

trade,

concluding

that

30%

of

global

hydrogen

volumes

have

the

potential

to

be

involved

in

cross-border

transport,

higher

than

for

natural

gas.

Regions

such

as

MENA,

LatAm,

Australia

and

Iberia

could

emerge

as

key

clean

hydrogen

exporters,

while

Central

Europe,

Japan,

Korea

and

East

China

could

emerge

as

key

importers.

With

US$5.0

tn

cumulative

investments

required

in

the

clean

hydrogen

supply

chain,

on

our

estimates,

we

examine

the

hydrogen

case

for

11

industrial

conglomerates

with

growing

exposure

to

the

theme

and

also

initiate

coverage

on

three

leading

hydrogen

pure-plays.AUTHORSMichele

Della

Vigna,

CFA+44

20

7552-9383michele.dellavigna@Goldman

Sachs

InternationalZoe

Clarke+44

20

7051-2816zoe.clarke@Goldman

Sachs

InternationalGeorgina

Fraser,

Ph.D.+44

20

7552-5984georgina.fraser@Goldman

Sachs

InternationalAlberto

Gandolfi+39

02

8022-0157alberto.gandolfi@Goldman

Sachs

BankEurope

SE

-

Milan

branchJerry

Revich,

CFA+1

212

902-4116jerry.revich@Goldman

Sachs

&

Co.

LLCChao

Ji+86

21

2401-8936chao.ji@Beijing

Gao

Hua

SecuritiesCompany

LimitedNeil

Mehta+1

212

357-4042neil.mehta@Goldman

Sachs

&

Co.

LLCAjay

Patel+44

20

7552-1168ajay.patel@Goldman

Sachs

InternationalRobert

Koort,

CFA+1

713

654-8440robert.koort@Goldman

Sachs

&

Co.

LLC

Bepul

Shahab

+44

20

7774-3694

bepul.shahab@

Goldman

Sachs

InternationalIntroducing

the

GS

global

hydrogen

demand

models:

7-fold

increase

in

the

potential

addressable

market

forhydrogen

for

global

net

zeroDecoding

the

hydrogen

rainbow:

A

colorless

gas

with

a

wide

color

spectrum2530We

estimate

that

US$5.0

tn

of

investments

will

be

required

in

the

hydrogen

supply

value

chain

for

net

zeroby

2050Championing

sustainable

innovation:The

economics

of

clean

hydrogenUnlocking

green

hydrogen

cost

parity

with

grey

hydrogen

before

2030343549The

case

of

Europe:

Higher

natural

gas

and

carbon

prices

tilt

the

scale

in

favor

of

green

hydrogen

with

costparity

already

achieved

in

key

parts

of

the

regionScaling-up:The

clean

hydrogen

projects

pipeline

is

expanding

at

an

unprecedented

pace,

tracking

the

GS‘bull’

scenario

to

20255051Addressing

the

remaining

hydrogen

value

chain:

Hydrogen

conversion,

transport

and

storage

unlock

a

newinfrastructure

opportunityFrom

a

local

to

a

global

market:

We

see

scope

for

c.30%

of

global

clean

hydrogen

to

be

involved

ininternational

trade

(cross-border

transport)5561PolicyToolbox:

In

search

of

a

constructive

hydrogen

policy

and

pricing

framework

to

move

from

ambition

to

action

The

impact

of

the

rising

hydrogen

economy

on

electricity,

water

and

natural

resources

demand

Clean

hydrogen

end

markets:The

revolution

starts

with

the

transformation

of

the

existing

hydrogen

economy

Carbon

sequestration:

Carbon

capture

the

key

missing

piece

to

the

carbon

neutrality

puzzle

Appendix:

National

hydrogen

strategies

and

roadmaps

overview

Disclosure

Appendix4

February

20223Carbonomics

4

7

11

14

20

23Goldman

SachsTable

of

Contents

The

clean

hydrogen

revolution:Thesis

in

charts

PM

summary:The

global

clean

hydrogen

race

The

emergence

of

a

multi-dimensional

clean

tech

ecosystem

The

rise

of

the

clean

hydrogen

economy

Hydrogen

primer:

An

introduction

to

hydrogen,

the

most

abundant

element

in

the

universe

The

role

of

hydrogen

in

the

energy

transition:The

key

tool

for

harder-to-de-carbonize

sectors

66

69

78104116119EU'sneighbourhoodtargetSwedenOmanColombiaUKPolandChileSpainAustraliaPortugalKoreaSouthFranceNetherlandsItalyGermanyGS2.0oCNetzeroby2070scenarioGS<2.0oCNetzeroby2060scenarioGS1.5oCNetzeroby2050scenarioCarbon

abatement

cost(US$/tnCO2eq)GS

global

carbon

neutralitymodels

-

CO2

emissions(MtCO2eq)200020032006200920122015201820212024202720302033203620392042204520482051205420572060206320662069Global

hydrogen

demand

(Mt

H2)202020252030203520402045205020202025203020352040204520502020202520302035204020452050TAM

for

hydrogen

(incl

production,storage

and

transport)US$bnCurrent

hydrogen

capacitypledges

explicit

in

official

nationalhydrogen

strategies

(2030)Exhibit

1:

Clean

hydrogen

is

a

critical

pillar

to

any

aspiring

net

zeropath,

aiding

the

de-carbonization

of

c.15%

of

global

GHG

emissionson

our

estimates..Carbonomics

cost

curve

with

emissions

abatement

potential

attributedto

clean

hydrogen

indicated

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

-100

-200

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

GHG

emissions

abatement

potential

(Gt

CO2eq)Other

de-carbonization

technologiesExhibit

2:

..and

our

GS

global

net

zero

paths

(one

consistent

with1.5°C

of

global

warming,

one

consistent

with

well

below

2.0°

andone

consistent

with

2.0°)...GS

global

net

zero

models,

CO2

emissions

(incl.

AFOLU)

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

-10,000

De-carbonization

technologies

relying

on

clean

hydrogenSource:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchSource:

Emission

Database

for

Global

Atmospheric

Research

(EDGAR)

release

version

5.0,

FAO,Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchExhibit

3:

..imply

an

up

to

7-fold

increase

in

the

global

hydrogendemand

on

the

path

to

net

zero

across

industries.Global

hydrogen

demand

(Mt

H2)

under

the

three

GS

net

zero

modelsExhibit

4:

We

estimate

US$5.0

tn

of

investments

will

be

required

inthe

global

clean

hydrogen

supply

chain

to

net

zero..Investments

required

in

the

clean

hydrogen

supply

chain

for

net

zero600500400300200100

0Base

scenario

Bear

scenario

Ammonia

Iron

&

Steel

Transport

-

HDVs

(trucks,

incl

buses)

Transport

-

Shipping

Grid

blending

(heating

industrial

&

buildings)

Bull

scenarioRefiningMethanolTransport

-

LDVsTransport

-

RailTransport

-

AviationPower

generation

Bull

scenarioGlobal

net

zero

by

2050

-

1.5o

c.

6-7x

Base

scenarioGlobal

net

zero

by

2060

-

<2.0o

c.

4x

Bear

scenarioGlobal

net

zero

by

2070

-

2.0o

c.

2xElectrolysers,

$1,669CCUS,

$1,264Local

distribution

,

$638

Transport

and

global

trade,

$961Storage,

$414US$5.0trillion

cumulativeinvestments

on

the

direct

cleanhydrogen

supply

chain0Source:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchExhibit

5:

..while

TAM

for

hydrogen

generation

has

the

scope

todouble

from

US$125

bn

to

c.US$250

bn

by

2030

and

reach

>US$1

tnby

2050

(bull

scenario)TAM

for

global

hydrogen

generation,

transport

and

storage

(US$bn)

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200Current2030E2040E2050ECurrent2030E2040E2050E

GS

base

scenarioHydrogen

production

Local

distributionStorageGS

Bull

scenario

International

transport020Source:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchExhibit

6:

Policy

support

for

clean

H2

is

strengthening

globally

with>30

national

H2

strategies

and

roadmaps

explicitly

pledgingc.130GW

of

capacity

by

2030,

>400x

the

2020

level

140

120

100

80

60

40Global

targetsEU

country-specific

targetsSource:

European

Commission,

data

compiled

by

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchSource:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

Research4

February

20224Goldman

SachsThe

clean

hydrogen

revolution:

Thesis

in

chartsCarbonomicsLevelised

cost

of

hydrogen

-

LCOH(US$/kg

H2)Alkaline

electrolyzerAlkaline

electrolyzerAlkaline

electrolyzerCoal

gasification

+CCUSCoal

gasification

+CCUSCoal

gasification

+CCUSAlkaline

electrolyzerGlobal

installed

green

H2electrolysis

capacity

(GW)Coal

gasificationCoal

gasificationCoal

gasificationPEM

electrolyzerPEM

electrolyzerPEM

electrolyzerNatural

gas

SMRNatural

gas

SMRNatural

gas

SMRNatural

gas

SMRPEM

electrolyzerSMR

+CCUSSMR

+CCUSSMR

+CCUSSMR

+CCUSCumulative

installed

electrolysisgreen

H2

capacity

based

onannounced

planned

projects

(GW)BNEF

-

Weak

policyGS

Base

scenarioBNEF

-

Strong

policyBNEF

-

TheoreticalmaxHydrogen

Council

'H2for

NZ'GS

Bear

scenarioGS

Bull

scenarioClean

tech

capex

rebasedAverage

project

size

(GW)Global

installed

electrolysercapacity

(GW)CAGR

2021

to

2050

(%)IEA

SDSIEA

NZE7.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.015$/tn35$/tn55$/tnCoal

price

Coal

price

Coal

price

Gas

price

Gas

price

Gas

price

Gas

priceLCOELCOELCOELCOE$2.5/mcf

$5.0/mcf

$7.5/mcf

$10.0/mcf

$15/MWh

$30/MWh

$45/MWh

$60/MWhOpex

($/kg

H2)Fuel

(coal,

NG)

or

electricity

cost

($/kg

H2)Capex

($/kg

H2)GS

base

case

cost

of

production200180160140120100

80

60

4020

-

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Cum.

Installed

capacity

from

projects

pipeline

(feasibility,

FID,

construction)

Cum.

Installed

capacity

from

all

projects

under

consideration

(incl.

concept

projects)

Bull

scenarioGlobal

net

zero

by

2050

-

1.5o

Base

scenarioGlobal

net

zero

by

2060

-

<2.0o

Bear

scenarioGlobal

net

zero

by

2070

-

2.0oSource:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchExhibit

9:

..representing

a

>200-fold

increase

to

2030,

and

ac.20%-30%

CAGR

to

2050Global

installed

electrolyzer

capacity

under

various

scenarios

and

vs

GSglobal

hydrogen

models

(GW)Source:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchExhibit

10:

Europe

leads

the

planned

green

hydrogen

projectspipeline

in

the

near

term,

with

Australia,

LatAm

and

MENA

scalingup

notably

post

2025ECumulative

installed

electrolysis

capacity

based

on

announced/plannedgreen

hydrogen

projects32%29%24%40%36%32%28%24%20%12,00010,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

020501043220-100

80

60

402025202620302027

2028

2029

Asia

Middle

East

Other

N.A

Africa

2021

2022

2023

2024EuropeAustraliaUnited

StatesLatin

America2-yr

moving

average

project

sizeSource:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchExhibit

12:

..unlocking

cost

parity

of

green

with

grey

hydrogen

asearly

as

2025-26E

in

advantageous

regions

(low

RES

cost)Levelized

cost

of

hydrogen

(US$/kg

H2)

for

grey,

green

and

blue

H2Source:

BNEF,

IEA,

Hydrogen

Council,

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchExhibit

11:

Scale

brings

cost

de?ation

and

we

estimate

that

thecost

of

electrolyzers

can

fall

by

c.40%

by

2025E,

similar

to

what

weobserved

for

batteries

over

?ve

years..Cost

per

kW

capacity

for

electrolyzers,

renewables,

batteries

(per

kWh)

120

100

80

60

40

20

020202021202920302022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

Solar

PV

cost

per

GW

(rebased

to

2010)

Onshore

wind

cost

per

GW

(rebased

to

2010)

Offshore

wind

cost

per

GW

(rebased

to

2010)

Batteries

cost

per

kWh

(rebased

to

2015)

Alkaline

cost

per

kW

(rebased

to

2020)

PEM

cost

per

kW

(rebased

to

2020)Source:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchSource:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

Research4

February

20225Goldman

SachsExhibit

7:

We

see

green

hydrogen

as

the

key

de-carbonizationsolution,

bene?ting

from

the

growth

and

cost

de?ation

inrenewable

power…Levelized

cost

of

hydrogen

production

(US$/kg

H2)

CarbonomicsExhibit

8:

..and

the

industry

is

growing

at

a

remarkable

pace

withannounced

green

hydrogen

projects

across

the

globe

trendingabove

our

base

case..Global

installed

green

H2

electrolysis

capacity

from

projects

announcedcompared

to

GS

scenariosLevelised

cost

of

production

ofhydrogen

-

LCOH

(US$/kg

H2)NG:

US$2.5/mcfNG:

US$7.5/mcfHydrogen

price

at

the

pump

forcost

parity

with

diesel

trucks($/kg

H2)NG:

US$2.5/mcfNG:

US$7.5/mcfLCOE:

US$15/MWhLCOE:

US$30/MWhLCOE:

US$45/MWhLCOE:

US$60/MWhLCOE:

US$75/MWhNG:

US$12.5/mcfNG:

US$17.5/mcfNG:

US$12.5/mcfNG:

US$17.5/mcfAverage

annual

RES

capacityadditions

for

green

hydrogen

(GW,bars)%

of

annual

RES

capacityadditions

(green)Base

caseBase

caseBear

caseBear

caseBull

caseBull

caseAverage

annual

incremental

demand(kt)Alkaline

Dominant

techGS

bull

caseGS

base

caseGS

bear

caseAlkaline

Dominant

techGS

bull

caseGS

base

caseGS

bear

casePEM

Dominant

techGS

bull

caseGS

base

caseGS

bear

casePEM

Dominant

techGS

bull

caseGS

base

caseGS

bear

caseSOEC

Dominant

techGS

bull

caseGS

base

caseGS

bear

caseSOEC

Dominant

techGS

bull

caseGS

base

caseGS

bear

caseSOEC

Dominant

techGS

bull

caseGS

base

caseGS

bear

caseSOEC

Dominant

techGS

bull

caseGS

base

caseGS

bear

caseAverage

annual

incremental

demand

asa

%

of

current

global

production

foreach

mineral

(%)Alkaline4.03.02.01.00.06.05.0Grey

H2

-

SMRCapex

OpexBlue

H2

-

SMR

+

CCUS

Green

H2

-

Alkaline

Fuel/electricity

Carbon

tax

-

$100/tnCO2Current

EU

gas

price

environment7.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.09.08.02.02.53.03.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.06.57.07.5Diesel

price

per

gallon

(US$/gl)Long-term

FCEV

TCOCurrent

FCEV

TCOSource:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchExhibit

15:

The

rise

of

the

green

hydrogen

economy

calls

for

almostone

third

of

global

renewable

capacity

additions

from

2030E..Average

annual

RES

capacity

additions

for

green

H2

and

as

a

%

ofglobal

annual

average

RES

capacity

additionsSource:

Company

data,

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchExhibit

16:

..and

can

cause

up

to

c.

5%/18%

growth

in

incrementalaverage

annual

demand

for

nickel/PGMs

and

a

multi-fold

increasefor

iridiumAverage

annual

incremental

demand

for

speci?c

metals

and

mineralsused

in

electrolyzers35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%140120100

80

60

40

20

02021-302030-35RES

capacity

required%

of

annual

additions1000%100%10%1%0%0%100.0

10.0

1.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0Nickel

Zirconium

Platinum

IridiumNickel

PEMelectrolysersZirconiumLanthanum

Yttrium

SOEC

electrolysersSource:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchSource:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchExhibit

17:

We

see

potential

for

c.30%

of

the

global

hydrogen

market

to

be

involved

in

international

tradeSource:

Compiled

by

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

Research4

February

20226Goldman

SachsExhibit

13:

The

unique

dynamic

in

Europe

with

historically

high

gasand

carbon

prices

is

already

leading

to

green

H2

cost

parity

withgrey

across

key

parts

of

the

region

(LCOE

<US$50/MWh)Levelized

cost

of

hydrogen

-

LCOH

(US$/kg

H2)

CarbonomicsExhibit

14:

Clean

hydrogen

at

the

pump

can

reach

cost

parity

withdiesel

for

heavy

duty

long-haul

trucks

as

early

as

2027E

on

ourestimates

(TCO

basis)Hydrogen

price

at

the

pump

for

cost

parity

with

diesel

for

HDTsEU'sneighbourhoodtargetSwedenOmanColombiaUKPolandChileSpainAustraliaPortugalKoreaSouthFranceNetherlandsItalyGermanyGlobal

hydrogen

demand

(Mt

H2)2020Current

hydrogen

capacitypledges

explicit

in

official

nationalhydrogen

strategies

(2030)20252030203520402045205020202025203020352040204520502020202520302035204020452050PM

summary:

The

global

clean

hydrogen

race

Clean

hydrogen

has

emerged

as

a

critical

pillar

to

any

aspiring

net

zero

path,

and

policy,

affordability,

and

scalability

are

converging

to

create

unprecedented

momentum

for

the

clean

hydrogen

economy

Clean

hydrogen

has

emerged

as

a

critical

pillar

to

any

aspiring

global

net

zero

path,

aiding

the

de-carbonization

of

c.15%

of

global

GHG

emissions

on

our

estimates,

and

we

leverage

our

global

GS

net

zero

models

(one

consistent

with

1.5°C

of

global

warming,

one

consistent

with

well

below

2.0°

and

one

consistent

with

2.0°)

and

Carbonomics

cost

curve

to

construct

three

global

hydrogen

scenarios.

Our

global

GS

hydrogen

models

are

developed

on

a

sectoral

basis,

and

include

a

modeling

of

the

technological

mix

and

activity

for

each

of

the

potential

hydrogen

end

markets

on

the

path

to

net

zero.

Under

all

three

of

the

global

hydrogen

demand

paths,

the

bull,

base

and

bear,

global

hydrogen

demand

increases

at

least

2-fold

on

the

path

to

net

zero:

from

2-fold

in

the

bear

scenario

to

7-fold

in

the

bull

scenario.

Meanwhile,

policy

support

is

strengthening

across

the

globe,

with

>30

national

hydrogen

strategies

and

roadmaps

released

pledging

a

>400-fold

increase

in

clean

hydrogen

installed

capacity

this

decade

compared

to

2020

and

supportive

of

a

c.50-fold

increase

in

the

pace

of

annual

average

green

hydrogen

new

builds.We

estimate

US$5.0

trillion

of

cumulative

investments

in

the

clean

hydrogen

supplychain

will

be

required

for

net

zero,

while

the

TAM

for

hydrogen

generation

alone

hasthe

potential

to

double

by

2030E

(to

US$250

bn)

and

reach

>US$1

tn

by

2050EInvestments

in

the

hydrogen

industry

have

already

started

to

in?ect

notably

higher,particularly

in

production

technology

deployment.

Focusing

on

the

direct

supply

chain

ofclean

hydrogen,

encompassing

investments

required

for

its

production

(electrolyzersand

CCUS

for

green

and

blue

hydrogen,

respectively),

storage,

distribution,

transmissionand

global

trade,

we

estimate

that,

in

aggregate,

US$5.0

tn

of

cumulativeinvestments

in

the

direct

clean

hydrogen

supply

chain

will

be

required

to

net

zero.We

note

this

is

solely

capex

investments

in

the

direct

supply

chain

of

clean

hydrogenExhibit

18:

Our

GS

global

hydrogen

models

point

to

remarkablegrowth

in

the

hydrogen

market,

with

hydrogen

demand

increasingat

least

2-fold

and

up

to

7x

on

the

path

to

net

zero..Global

hydrogen

demand

(Mt

H2)

under

the

three

GS

net

zero

modelsExhibit

19:

..and

policy

support

is

strengthening

across

the

globe,with

>30

national

H2

strategies

and

roadmaps

explicitly

pledgingc.130

GW

of

capacity

by

2030,

>400x

the

2020

level200100

0600500400300Base

scenario

Bear

scenario

Ammonia

Iron

&

Steel

Transport

-

HDVs

(trucks,

incl

buses)

Transport

-

Shipping

Grid

blending

(heating

industrial

&

buildings)

Bull

scenarioRefiningMethanolTransport

-

LDVsTransport

-

RailTransport

-

AviationPower

generation

Bull

scenarioGlobal

net

zero

by

2050

-

1.5o

c.

6-7x

Base

scenarioGlobal

net

zero

by

2060

-

<2.0o

c.

4x

Bear

scenarioGlobal

net

zero

by

2070

-

2.0o

c.

2x20

0806040140120100Global

targetsEU

country-specific

targetsSource:

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

ResearchSource:

European

Commission,

data

compiled

by

Goldman

Sachs

Global

Investment

Research4

February

20227Goldman

SachsCarbonomicsTAM

for

hydrogen

generation

(incl.storage

and

transport

for

futureyears)

US$bnScalability

unlocks

affordability:

Scalability

is

already

revolutionizing

the

industry,unlocking

economies

of

scale

and

cost

de?ationGreen

hydrogen

is

the

ultimate

de-carbonization

solution,

in

our

view,

bene?ting

fromthe

growth

and

cost

de?ation

in

renewable

power.The

total

installed

electrolyzercapacity

for

green

hydrogen

production

was

only

around

0.3

GW

by

the

end

of

2020

butthe

industry

is

moving

at

a

remarkable

pace,

with

the

current

projects

pipelinesuggesting

an

installed

electrolysis

capacity

of

close

to

80

GW

by

end-2030,

includingprojects

currently

under

construction,

having

undertaken

FID

(?nal

investment

decision)and

pre-FID

(feasibility

study),

and

assuming

projects

meet

the

guided

start-up

timeline.If

we

were

to

consider

projects

in

earlier

stages

of

development

(pre-feasibility

studystage,

‘concept’

projects),

then

this

?gure

would

go

close

to

120

GW,

tracking

our

‘bull’hydrogen

scenario

in

the

near

term.

Scalability

is

already

revolutionizing

the

greenhydrogen