國外組織行為學(xué)課件

Chapter11DecisionMakingCopyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第一頁，共七十七頁。LearningObjectivesDefinedecisionmakinganddifferentiatewell-structuredandill-structuredproblems.Compareandcontrastperfectlyrationaldecisionmakingwithdecisionmakingunderboundedrationality.Discusstheimpactofframingandcognitivebiasesonthedecisionprocess.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二頁，共七十七頁。LearningObjectives4. Explaintheprocessofescalationofcommitmenttoanapparentlyfailingcourseofaction.5. Considerhowemotionsandmoodaffectdecisionmaking.Summarizetheprosandconsofusinggroupstomakedecisions,withattentiontothegroupthinkphenomenonandriskassessment.Discusstechniquesforimprovingorganizationaldecisionmaking.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三頁，共七十七頁。WhatIsDecisionMaking?Decisionmakingistheprocessofdevelopingacommitmenttosomecourseofaction.Threethingsarenoteworthyaboutdecisionmaking:Itinvolvesmakingachoiceamongseveralactionalternatives.Itisaprocess.Itinvolvesacommitmentofresources.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四頁，共七十七頁。WhatIsDecisionMaking?(continued)Decisionmakingcanalsobedescribedasaprocessofproblemsolving.Aproblemexistswhenagapisperceivedbetweensomeexistingstateandsomedesiredstate.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五頁，共七十七頁。Well-StructuredProblemsAproblemforwhichtheexistingstateisclear,thedesiredstateisclear,andhowtogetfromonestatetoanotherisfairlyobvious.Theseproblemsaresimple,andtheirsolutionsarouselittlecontroversy.Theyarerepetitiveandfamiliarandtheycanbeprogrammed.Aprogramisastandardizedwayofsolvingaproblem.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六頁，共七十七頁。Well-StructuredProblems(continued)Programsshort-circuitthedecision-makingprocessbyenablingthedecisionmakertogodirectlyfromproblemidentificationtosolution.Theyarealsoknownasrules,routines,standardoperatingprocedures,orrulesofthumb.Theyprovideausefulmeansofsolvingwellstructuredproblems.Programsareonlyasgoodasthedecision-makingprocessthatledtotheadoptionoftheprograminthefirstplace.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第七頁，共七十七頁。Ill-StructuredProblemAproblemforwhichtheexistinganddesiredstatesareunclearandthemethodofgettingtothedesiredstateisunknown.Uniqueandunusualproblemsthathavenotbeenencounteredbefore.Theytendtobecomplexandinvolveahighdegreeofuncertainty.Theyfrequentlyarousecontroversyandconflict.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第八頁，共七十七頁。Ill-StructuredProblem(continued)Theycannotbesolvedwithprogrammeddecisions.Decisionmakersmustresorttonon-programmeddecisionmaking.Theycanentailhighriskandstimulatestrongpoliticalconsiderations.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第九頁，共七十七頁。TheCompleatDecisionMaker–ARationalDecision-MakingModelArationaldecisionmakermightuseamodelthatinvolvesasequenceofstepsthatarefollowedwhenmakingadecision.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十頁，共七十七頁。TheRationalDecisionMakingProcessCopyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十一頁，共七十七頁。PerfectRationalityPerfectrationalityisadecisionstrategythatiscompletelyinformed,perfectlylogical,andorientedtowardeconomicgain.TheprototypeforperfectrationalityistheEconomicPersonwhoistheperfect,cool,calculatingdecisionmaker.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十二頁，共七十七頁。PerfectRationality(continued)EconomicPersoncharacteristics:cangatherinformationwithoutcostandiscompletelyinformed;isperfectlylogical;andonlycriterionfordecisionmakingiseconomicgain.Theseperfectlyrationalcharacteristicsdonotexistinrealdecisionmakers.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十三頁，共七十七頁。BoundedRationalityHerbertSimonrecognizedthattherationalcharacteristicsofEconomicPersondonotexistinrealdecisionmakers.Hesuggestedthatmanagersuseboundedrationality.Boundedrationalityisadecisionstrategythatreliesonlimitedinformationandthatreflectstimeconstraintsandpoliticalconsiderations.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十四頁，共七十七頁。BoundedRationality(continued)Framingandcognitivebiasesillustratetheoperationofboundedrationality,asdoestheimpactofemotionsandmoodondecisions.Framingreferstotheaspectsofthepresentationofinformationaboutaproblemthatareassumedbydecisionmakers.Howproblemsanddecisionalternativesareframedcanhaveapowerfulimpactonresultingdecisions.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十五頁，共七十七頁。CognitiveBiasesCognitivebiasesaretendenciestoacquireandprocessinformationinaparticularwaythatispronetoerror.Theyconstituteassumptionsandshortcutsthatcanimprovedecision-makingefficiency,buttheyfrequentlyleadtoseriouserrorsinjudgment.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十六頁，共七十七頁。ProblemIdentificationandFramingBoundedrationalitycanleadtothefollowingdifficultiesinproblemidentification:Perceptualdefence.Problemdefinedintermsoffunctionalspecialty.Problemdefinedintermsofsolution.Problemdiagnosedintermsofsymptoms.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十七頁，共七十七頁。ProblemIdentificationandFraming(continued)Whenaproblemisidentified,itisframedinsomeway.A$10,000expenditurecanbeframedasacostoraninvestment.Differentdecisionframescanleadtoverydifferentdecisions.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十八頁，共七十七頁。ProblemIdentificationandFraming(continued)Rationaldecisionmakersshouldbeveryself-consciousabouthowtheyhaveframedproblems.Theyshouldtryoutalternativeframes.Theyshouldavoidoverarching,universalframes.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十九頁，共七十七頁。InformationSearchTheperfectlyrationaldecisionmakerhasfreeandinstantaneousaccesstoallinformationnecessarytoclarifytheproblemanddevelopalternativesolutions.Boundedrationalitysuggeststhatinformationsearchcanbeslowandcostly.Decisionmakerscanhavetoolittleortoomuchinformation.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十頁，共七十七頁。TooLittleInformationSometimes,decisionmakersdonotacquireenoughinformationtomakeagooddecision.Severalcognitivebiasescontributetothissuchasusingwhateverinformationismostreadilyavailableandthetendencytobeoverconfident.Confirmationbiasreferstothetendencytoseekoutinformationthatconformstoone’sowndefinitionoforsolutiontoaproblem.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十一頁，共七十七頁。TooMuchInformationToomuchinformationcanalsodamagethequalityofdecisions.Informationoverloadisthereceptionofmoreinformationthanisnecessarytomakeeffectivedecisions.Informationoverloadcanleadtoerrors,omissions,delays,andcuttingcorners.Decisionmakersseemtothinkthatmoreisbetter.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十二頁，共七十七頁。AlternativeDevelopment,Evaluation,andChoiceTheperfectlyrationaldecisionmakerexhibitsmaximization–thechoiceofthedecisionalternativewiththegreatestexpectedvalue.Forthedecisionmakerworkingunderboundedrationality,alternativesolutionsandprobabilitiesofsuccessarenotallknown.Cognitivebiasesalsocomeintoplay.Peopleareespeciallyweakintuitivestatisticians.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十三頁，共七十七頁。AlternativeDevelopment,Evaluation,andChoice(continued)Peopleavoidincorporatingexistingdataaboutthelikelihoodofevents(“baserates”)intotheirdecisions.Largesampleswarrantmoreconfidencethansmallsamples.Decisionmakersoftenoverestimatetheoddsofcomplexchainsofeventsoccurring.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十四頁，共七十七頁。AlternativeDevelopment,Evaluation,andChoice(continued)Peoplearepooratrevisingestimatesofprobabilitiesandvaluesastheyacquireadditionalinformation.Theanchoringeffectillustratesthatdecisionmakersdonotadjusttheirestimatesenoughfromsomeinitialestimatethatservesasananchor.Itispossibletoreducesomeofthesecognitivebiasesbymakingpeoplemoreaccountablefortheirdecisions.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十五頁，共七十七頁。AlternativeDevelopment,Evaluation,andChoice(continued)Theperfectlyrationaldecisionmakercanevaluatealternativesolutionsagainstasinglecriterion–economicgain.Thedecisionmakerwhoisboundedbyrealitymighthavetofactorinothercriteriasuchaspoliticalacceptability.Thedecisionmakerworkingunderboundedrationalityfrequently“satisfices”ratherthanmaximizes.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十六頁，共七十七頁。SatisficingSatisficingmeansthatthedecisionmakerestablishesanadequatelevelofacceptabilityforasolutiontoaproblemandthenscreenssolutionsuntilheorshefindsonethatexceedsthislevel.Whenthisoccurs,evaluationofalternativesceases,andthesolutionischosenforimplementation.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十七頁，共七十七頁。RiskyDecisionMakingChoosingbetweendecisionalternativesofteninvolvesanelementofrisk.Whenpeopleviewaproblemasachoicebetweenlosses,theytendtomakeriskydecisions.Whenpeopleframethealternativesasachoicebetweengainstheytendtomakeconservativedecisions.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十八頁，共七十七頁。RiskyDecisionMaking(continued)Itisimportanttobeawareofwhatreferencepointyouareusingwhenyouframedecisionalternatives.Framingaproblemasachoicebetweenlossescancontributetoafoolishlevelofrisktaking.Learninghistorycanmodifypreferencesfororagainstrisk.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十九頁，共七十七頁。SolutionImplementationDecisionmakersareoftendependentonotherstoimplementtheirdecisions,anditmightbedifficulttoanticipatetheirabilityormotivationtodoso.Implementationproblemsoftenoccurwhenthosewhomustimplementadecisionarenottheoneswhomadethedecision.Cross-functionalteamscanhelppreventthesekindsofimplementationproblems.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十頁，共七十七頁。SolutionEvaluationTheperfectlyrationaldecisionmakershouldbeabletoevaluatetheeffectivenessofadecisionwithcalm,objectivedetachment.Theboundeddecisionmightencounterproblemsatthisstageoftheprocess:JustificationHindsightCopyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十一頁，共七十七頁。JustificationSubstantialdissonancecanbearousedwhenadecisionturnsouttobefaulty.Topreventsuchdissonance,decisionmakerssometimesavoidcarefulevaluationsordevotetheirenergytotryingtojustifyafaultydecision.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十二頁，共七十七頁。SunkCostsThejustificationoffaultydecisionsisbestseenintheirrationaltreatmentofsunkcosts.Sunkcostsarepermanentlossesofresourcesincurredastheresultofadecision.Sincetheseresourceshavebeenlostduetoapastdecision,theyshouldnotenterintofuturedecisions.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十三頁，共七十七頁。EscalationofCommitmentPeopleoften“throwgoodresourcesafterbad,”actingasiftheycanrecoupsunkcosts.Thisprocessisknownasescalationofcommitmenttoanapparentlyfailingcourseofaction.Escalationofcommitmentreferstothetendencytoinvestadditionalresourcesinanapparentlyfailingcourseofaction.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十四頁，共七十七頁。EscalationofCommitment(continued)Itcanhappenevenwhenthecurrentdecisionmakerisnotresponsibleforprevioussunkcostsandcanoccurincompetitiveandnon-competitivesituations.Groupsaremorepronethanindividualstoescalatecommitment.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十五頁，共七十七頁。EscalationofCommitment(continued)Reasonsforescalationofcommitment:Dissonancereduction.Socialnormforconsistentbehaviour.Motivationtonotappearwasteful.Thewaytheproblemisframed.Personality,moods,andemotions.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十六頁，共七十七頁。PreventingEscalationofCommitmentEncouragecontinuousexperimentationwithreframingtheproblem.Setspecificgoalsfortheprojectinadvancethatmustbemetifmoreresourcesaretobeinvested.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十七頁，共七十七頁。PreventingEscalationofCommitment(continued)Placemoreemphasisinevaluatingmanagersonhowtheymadedecisionsandlessondecisionoutcomes.Separateinitialandsubsequentdecisionmaking.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十八頁，共七十七頁。HindsightTheevaluationofdecisionsisalsoinhibitedbyfaultyhindsight.Hindsightreferstothetendencytoreviewthedecision-makingprocessthatwasusedtofindwhatwasdonerightorwrong.Itoftenreflectsacognitivebias.Itisthetendencytoassume,afterthefact,thatweknewallalongwhattheoutcomeofadecisionwouldbe.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十九頁，共七十七頁。Hindsight(continued)Anotherformoffaultyhindsightisthetendencytotakepersonalresponsibilityforsuccessfuldecisionoutcomeswhiledenyingresponsibilityforunsuccessfuloutcomes.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十頁，共七十七頁。HowEmotionandMoodAffectDecisionMakingStrongemotionsfrequentlyfigureinthedecisionmakingprocess.Emotionscanhelpdecisionmakingbutstrongemotionscanalsobeahindrance.Moodaffectswhatandhowpeoplethinkwhenmakingdecisions.Moodhasthegreatestimpactonuncertain,ambiguousdecisionsofthetypethatareespeciallycrucialfororganizations.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十一頁，共七十七頁。HowEmotionandMoodAffectDecisionMaking(continued)Researchonmoodanddecisionmakingrevealsthat:Peopleinapositive(negative)moodtendtorememberpositive(negative)information.Peopleinapositive(negative)moodtendtoevaluateobjects,people,andeventsmorepositively(negatively).Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十二頁，共七十七頁。HowEmotionandMoodAffectDecisionMaking(continued)Peopleinagoodmoodtendtooverestimatethelikelihoodthatgoodeventswilloccurandunderestimatetheoccurrenceofbadevents.Peopleinabadmooddotheopposite.Peopleinagoodmoodadoptsimplified,shortcutdecision-makingstrategies,morelikelyviolatingtherationalmodel.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十三頁，共七十七頁。HowEmotionandMoodAffectDecisionMaking(continued)Peopleinanegativemoodarepronetoapproachdecisionsinamoredeliberate,systematic,detailedway.Positivemoodpromotesmorecreative,intuitivedecisionmaking.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十四頁，共七十七頁。RationalDecisionMaking–ASummaryTherationaldecision-makingmodelprovidesagoodguideforhowmanydecisionsshouldbemade.Itprovidesonlyapartiallyaccurateviewofhowtheyaremade.Forcomplex,unfamiliardecisions,therationalmodelprovidesaprettygoodpictureofhowpeopleactuallymakedecisions.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十五頁，共七十七頁。RationalDecisionMaking–ASummary(continued)Organizationaldecisionmakersoftenfollowtherationalmodelwhentheyagreeaboutthegoalstheyarepursuing.Organizationaldecisionmakersoftenshort-circuittherationalmodel.Trueexpertsinafieldoftenshort-circuittherationalmodel,usingtheirintuitiveknowledgebasetoskipstepslogically.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十六頁，共七十七頁。PerfectlyRationalDecisionMakingContrastedwithBoundedRationalityCopyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十七頁，共七十七頁。SummaryofCognitiveBiasesinDecisionMakingCopyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十八頁，共七十七頁。GroupDecisionMakingManyorganizationaldecisionsaremadebygroups,especiallywhenproblemsareillstructured.Whyusegroupsfordecision-making?Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十九頁，共七十七頁。WhyUseGroups?DecisionQualityGroupsorteamsshouldmakehigher-qualitydecisionsthanindividuals.DecisionAcceptanceandCommitmentAgroupdecisionwillbemoreacceptabletothoseinvolved.Thisisespeciallyimportantingettingadecisionimplemented.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十頁，共七十七頁。WhyUseGroups?(continued)DiffusionofResponsibilityTheabilityofgroupmemberstosharetheburdenofthenegativeconsequencesofapoordecision.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十一頁，共七十七頁。DoGroupsActuallyMakeHigher-QualityDecisions?Isthefrequentuseofgroupstomakedecisionswarrantedbyevidence?Groupsshouldperformbetterthanindividualswhen:thegroupmembersdifferinrelevantskillsandabilities,aslongastheydonotdiffersomuchthatconflictoccurs;somedivisionoflabourcanoccur;memoryforfactsisanimportantissue;andCopyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十二頁，共七十七頁。DoGroupsActuallyMakeHigher-QualityDecisions?(continued)individualjudgmentscanbecombinedbyweightingthemtoreflecttheexpertiseofthevariousmembers.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十三頁，共七十七頁。DisadvantagesofGroupDecisionMakingTimeThetimeittakestomakeadecisionincreaseswithgroupsize.ConflictDecisionqualitycantakeabackseattopoliticalwranglingandinfighting.Groupswillmakebetterdecisionswhenmembersfeelpsychologicallysafe.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十四頁，共七十七頁。DisadvantagesofGroupDecisionMaking(continued)DominationWhenmeetingsaredominatedbyasingleindividualorasmallcoalition.Dominationisnotlikelytoleadtogroupacceptanceandcommitment.Ifthedominantpersonismisinformed,thegroupdecisionislikelytobeineffective.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十五頁，共七十七頁。GroupthinkThecapacityforgrouppressuretodamagethementalefficiency,realitytesting,andmoraljudgmentofdecision-makinggroups.Unanimousacceptanceofdecisionsisstressedoverqualityofdecisions.Victimsofgroupthinkoperateinanatmosphereofunrealitythatshouldleadtolow-qualitydecisions.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十六頁，共七十七頁。Groupthink(continued)Factorsthatcancausegroupthinkinclude:Highgroupcohesiveness.Strongidentificationwiththegroup.Concernforapprovalfromthegroup.Isolationofthegroupfromothersourcesofinformation.Promotionofaparticulardecisionbythegroupleader(thisappearstobethestrongestcause).Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十七頁，共七十七頁。GroupthinkSymptomsIllusionofinvulnerabilityRationalizationIllusionofmoralityStereotypesofoutsidersPressureforconformitySelf-censorshipIllusionofunanimityMindguardsCopyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十八頁，共七十七頁。WhatCanPreventGroupthink?Leadersmustavoidexertingunduepressureforaparticulardecisionoutcomeandconcentrateongooddecisionprocesses.Leadersshouldestablishnormsthatencourageandrewardresponsibledissent.Outsideexpertsshouldbebroughtinfromtimetotimetochallengethegroup’sviews.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十九頁，共七十七頁。HowDoGroupsHandleRisk?Dogroupsmakedecisionsthataremoreorlessriskythanthoseofindividuals?Willthedegreeofriskassumedbythegroupsimplyequaltheaverageriskpreferredbyitsindividualmembers?Groupdecisionscaninvolveriskyandconservativeshifts,andtheyoccurinawidevarietyofsettings.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十頁，共七十七頁。HowDoGroupsHandleRisk?(continued)Ariskyshiftisthetendencyforgroupstomakeriskierdecisionsthantheaverageriskinitiallyadvocatedbytheirindividualmembers.Aconservativeshiftisthetendencyforgroupstomakelessriskydecisionsthantheaverageriskinitiallyadvocatedbytheirindividualmembers.Whatdetermineswhichkindofshiftoccurs?Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十一頁，共七十七頁。HowDoGroupsHandleRisk?(continued)Akeyfactorappearstobetheinitialpositionsofthegroupmembersbeforetheydiscusstheproblem.Groupdiscussionseemstopolarizeorexaggeratetheinitialpositionofthegroup:Somewhatconservativemembersexhibitaconservativeshiftwhentheydiscusstheproblem.Somewhatriskymembersexhibitariskyshiftafterdiscussion.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十二頁，共七十七頁。TheDynamicsofRiskyandConservativeShiftsforTwoGroupsCopyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十三頁，共七十七頁。HowDoGroupsHandleRisk?(continued)Twomainfactorsexplaintheoccurrenceofriskyandconservativeshifts:Groupdiscussiongeneratesideasandargumentsthatindividualmembershavenotconsideredbefore.Groupmemberstrytopresentthemselvesasbasicallysimilartoothermembersbut“evenbetter.”Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十四頁，共七十七頁。HowDoGroupsHandleRisk?(continued)Ifthispolarizationresultsfromthesensibleexchangeofinformation,itmightactuallyimprovethegroup’sdecision.Ifitresultsfromone-upmanship,itmightleadtolow-qualitydecisions.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十五頁，共七十七頁。ImprovingDecisionMakinginOrganizationsOrganizationaldecisionmakingcanimproveifdecisionmakersfollowmorecloselytherationaldecision-makingmodel.Eachofthefollowingtechniqueshasthisgoal:TrainingdiscussionleadersStimulatingandmanagingcontroversyTraditionalandelectronicbrainstormingNominalgrouptechniqueTheDelphitechniqueCopyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十六頁，共七十七頁。TrainingDiscussionLeadersTheactionsofdiscussionleaderscan“makeorbreak”thedecision.Theuseofrole-playingtrainingtodeveloptheleadershipskillsofdiscussionleaderscanincreasethequalityandacceptanceofgroupdecisions.Peoplelearnavarietyofskillsindiscussionleadertraining.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十七頁，共七十七頁。StimulatingandManagingControversyThereareavarietyofwaystostimulatecontroversyindecision-makinggroups:Incorporatingmemberswithdiverseideasandbackgrounds.Formingsubgroupsto“teartheproblemapart.”Establishingnormsthatfavourtheopensharingofinformation.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十八頁，共七十七頁。StimulatingandManagingControversy(continued)Thesetacticsmustbemanagedcarefullytoensurethatopenconflictdoesnotoccur.Adevil’sadvocatecanbeappointedtoidentifyandchallengetheweaknessesofaproposedplanorstrategy.Thecontroversypromotedbythedevil’sadvocateimprovesdecisionquality.Tobeeffective,theadvocatemustpresenthisorherviewsinanobjective,unemotionalmanner.Copyright?2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十九頁，共七十七頁。TraditionalBrainstormingBrainstormingisanattempttoincreasethenumberofcreativesolutionalternativestoproblemsbyfocusingonideagenerationratherthanevaluation.Itwasoriginallyconceivedasagrouptechnique.Researchhasshownthatindividualsworkingalonetendtogeneratemorei