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CONFIDENTIALChina’sMobileTelecomServices

IndustryOverviewGCOPracticeDevelopmentMay2002ThisreportissolelyfortheuseofFirmpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSANDREFERENCESMGMsandCSSinvolvedintherelevantstudiesincludethefollowing:TonyPerkins(BEI)StefanAlbrecht(BEI)ChipperBoulas(HKO)PeterKenevan(TOK)PerchowJosephChang(SHA)AndrewWu(HKO)HaiWu(BEI)JaneXing(HK)YiFeng(BEI)ShengFLi(SHA)YoshinobuTakanuki(TOK)GraemeHunter(JOH)JuliaYang(BEI)EricXu(BEI)JasonLiu(BEI)ShirleyChen(BEI)TheseriesofPDsincludethefollowing:#ChinaMacroeconomicEnvironment#China’sMobileTelecomServiceIndustryOverview#China’sInternetIndustryOverview#ChinaTelecomEquipmentandServicesOverview#China’sMobileHandsetSectorOverview#ChinaTelecomIndustryRegulatoryOverview#KeySuccessFactorsandCaseStudiesofMNCsEntrytoChina202PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptKEYMESSAGES1.China’smobiletelecomservicemarketishugeandfastgrowing,representingUS$21billionmarketsizein2001andUS$38billionin2005.Thismarketissupportedbytheworld’slargestsubscriberbaseat145million,alreadycomprising15%oftheworld’stotalin2001andgrowingtopotentially218millioninalowcaseor300millioninahighcaseby20052.Thecompetitivelandscapeformobileserviceshasevolvedfromasingleregulatorandoperatortotoday’sduopolyofChinaUnicomandChinaMobile,bothofwhomareunassociatedwiththeMinistryofInformationIndustries.AsecondbreakupofChinaTelecomisexpectedtoformtwolargetelecomoperators,ChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomGroup,whoarelikelytoreceivemobilelicenses.Afifthtelecomoperator,ChinaRailcom,alsohasthepotentialofreceivingathirdgenerationlicenseandbuildingamobilebusiness.Fornow,ChinaMobiledominatesthemarketwith82%valueshareand72%subscribershareandownsmuchofthehighvalueuserbase.Howeverchurnisalreadyhighandisexpectedtoincreasewithcontinuingpricingpressuresandincreasedcompetition.3.WirelessdataservicesareexpectedtogrowquicklyinChinatoamarketofpotentiallyoverUS$4billionby2005,usedby43%ofallmobileusers.Interestfromconsumersurveyshavebeenhighandoperatorsandotherplayersareactivelybuildingservicesinthemarket.WhileearlyWAPserviceshavefailedtocatchon,SMShasgrownexponentiallywithupto20billionSMSmessagesin2001.Theearlyadopterswillbemobileprofessionalsandmodernyouth,whowillrequireservicesanddevicestailoredtotheirneeds.4.Regulatorychangesloom,particularlywiththeaccessionofChinatotheWTO.WhileforeignerswillbeunlikelytosetupMVNOs,WTOwillallowgreaterparticipationofforeignersinbasicandvalueaddedservices,althoughgeographiclimitationswillexistthrough2004andChineseplayerswillberequiredtoownatleast50%oftelecomserviceventures(51%forbasicservices).Regulatoryrisksremain,withnomeanstoappealregulatordecisions,unclearinterpretationofregulationincludingWTOcommitments,andthegovernment’strackrecordofintransparentandunpredictabledecisionmaking.(SeeseparateregulatoryPDfordetails)AppendixPlayersprofiles3Gtechnologystandardschoices302PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptKEYMESSAGES1.China’smobiletelecomservicemarketishugeandfastgrowing,representingUS$21billionmarketsizein2001andUS$38billionin2005.Thismarketissupportedbytheworld’slargestsubscriberbaseat145million,alreadycomprising15%oftheworld’stotalin2001andgrowingtopotentially218millioninalowcaseor300millioninahighcaseby2005402PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt1997-2001MOBILESERVICEREVENUEGROWTHOF30%CAGRHASOUTPACEDOTHERTELECOMSERVICESECTORSANDISPROJECTEDAT16%THROUGH2005Revenues

US$BillionsCAGRvs.otherindustries(1997-2001)PercentMobileFixedlinePagingCAGR30%CAGR16%

Source:DeutscheBank;McKinseyanalysis502PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt * RevenuesdonotequaltheproductofARPUassubscriberfiguresareprovidedforyearend,notaveragesubscribersduringayear.Detailedinformationonthetimingofnewsubscriptionsandchurnrequiredforthecalculationofaveragesubscribersduringagivenyearisnotavailable**AllCAGRsarecalculatedontheannounceddataSource: DeutscheBank;JPMorgan;MIIEXTRAORDINARYSUBSCRIBERGROWTHISTHEPRIMARYDRIVEROFREVENUEEVOLUTION,MORETHANMAKINGUPFORLARGEDECLINESINARPUDUETOSTIFFCOMPETITIONMobilerevenues*

$BillionsNumberofsubscribers–lowcaseMillionsCAGR30%CAGR16%CAGR83%ARPUUS$/monthCAGR-24%CAGR-7%PenetrationinitiallylowGovernmentbackingforincreasingsubscribernumbersRelativelylowfixedlinepenetrationLow-endprepaidsubscriberincreaseDriversDeclineduetoincreasedprepaidandlowerspendingbylateentrantsTariffreductionascompetitionincreasesSlightlyoff-setbyincreaseindatatrafficinlateryearsCAGR19%20823526329117161515AnnouncedEffective602PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt *05forecastuselowcase,netsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreduction**MajorEuropeancountriesinclude:UK,France,Italy,Germany,Netherlands,Spain,Sweden Source: JPMorgan;WEFA-WMM;MII;McKinseyanalysisJapanCHINAISTHEWORLD’SLARGESTMARKETINTERMSOFSUBSCRIBERS,HAVINGOVERTAKENTHEUSIN2001USMajorEuropean**countriesCAGR=30%CAGR=14%CAGR=7%NumberofmobilesubscribersMillionsCAGR=13%20002005China–lowcase*China–highcase*CAGR=22%702PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptCHINA’SMOBILESUBSCRIBERBASEISGROWINGMORERAPIDLYTHANANYOTHERMAJORMARKET,COMPRISING15%OFWORLDTOTALIN2001 * Afirca,EasternEurope,MiddleEast,Canada ** Forecastof02-05usethehighcase,netsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreduction Source: JPMorgan;Gartner2001;DeutscheBank;MerrillLynch;PiperJaffray19971998199920002001E2073004827279651,1781,3931,633100%=GlobalmobilesubscribersMillionsubscribers;percentWesternEuropeUSSouthandLatinJapanandAsiaPacificChina**Restofworld*CAGR1997-2005percent2918452847452002E2003E2004E2005E1,850802PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptCHINA’SMOBILEMARKETISPROJECTEDTOGROWSIGNIFICANTLY *02-05forecastarenetsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreduction Source: IDCreport;JPMorganreport;McKinseyanalysisNetsubscriber*additionsMillions199719981999200020012002E2003E2004E2005E–10847133-98-4711AnnualgrowthPercent1237912131516PenetrationPercent47.143.946.345.75.511.516.939.435.9LowcaseHighcaseLow–10847103-9225-13HighLowHigh1237912161923902PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt0%5%10%15%20%25%CHINA’SSUBSCRIBERBASEOF218MILLIONIMPLIESA47%PENETRATIONOFANADDRESSABLEMARKETOF460MILLIONBY2005*Lowcase,netsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreduction Source: JPMorgan;DRI;A;Literaturesearch;Analystreports;TeamanalysisIncomepercapita(US$p.a.)2001AddressablemarketNumberofmobilesubscribersImpliedpenetrationoftheaddressablemarket2005E345mn145mn42%463mn218mn*47%ChinaincomedistributionandaddressablemarketPercent1,8151,77220012005China’saddressablepopulationformobileservicesisprojectedtoincreaseby8%p.a.forthenextfiveyearsto460millionin2005Thekeyassumptionsindeterminingtheincomethresholdare:Chineseconsumerswillingtospend5-10%%oftheirincomeoncommunicationservices–higherthantheaverageof3.5-4%formoredevelopedmarketsasagreaterportionofincomeisavailablefornon-essentialgoodsasaresultofChina’srelativelylowlivingcostHalfofthisassumedspentonmobileservices(5.5%)Unicom’sprepaidARPUwilldecreasefromUSD8.3for2001toUSD8.1for2005;thereforethethresholdincomewilldropfromUSD1,815(8.3*12/5.5%)for2001toUSD1,772for2005(8.1*12/5.5%)2005Addressablemarket:35%Addressablepopulation:460mnpersons2001Addressablemarket:27%Addressablepopulation:345mnpersonsPercentofpopulation1002PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptMOBILESUBSCRIBERPENETRATIONOFLESSTHAN7%IN2000,LEAVESSIGNIFICANTROOMFORGROWTH Source: JPMorgan;IDCreport;Gartner;Literaturesearch,EIU100%199619971998199920002001E2002E2003E2004E2005EMobilesubscriberpenetrationin2000PercentItalySwedenNetherlandsUKSpainGermanyFranceUSChina**AllsubscribersDataservicesubscribers1,2181,2301,2421,2541,2651,2761,2871,2981,3091,319Aspercentageoftotalpopulation–lowcase*Millions(totalpopulation)ChinaUrban*** *02-05forecastarenetsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreduction**Penetrationovertotalpopulation***Penetrationoverurbanpopulation.0.61.012.013.415.016.41102PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptCHINA’SRICHERPROVINCESGENERALLYHAVEMORESUSCRIBERSANDAREGREATERPENETRATED…PopulationMillionsPenetrationPercent,2000SubscriberCAGRPercent,1998-2000NumberofsubscribersMillionsProvinceGuangdongLiaoningZhejiangJiangsuShandongFujianHeilongjiangShanghaiHebeiSichuanBeijingHenanAnhuiHubeiHunan Source: ChinaStatisticalyearbook,JPMorganReport,McKinseyanalysis1202PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt…WHILETHEPOORWESTERNANDINTERIORPROVINCESHAVELESSSUBSCRIBERSANDARELESSPENETRATED * Growthratefrom1999-2000 Source: ChinaStatisticalyearbook,JPMorganReport,McKinseyanalysisPopulationMillionsPenetrationPercent,2000SubscriberCAGRPercent,1998-2000NumberofsubscribersMillionsProvinceJilinGuangxiYunnanShaanxiChongqingShanxiTianjinInnerMongoliaJiangxiGansuXinjiangHainanNingxiaQinghaiTibetGuizhou1302PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptKEYMESSAGES2.Thecompetitivelandscapeformobileserviceshasevolvedfromasingleregulatorandoperatortotoday’sduopolyofChinaUnicomandChinaMobile,bothofwhomareunassociatedwiththeMinistryofInformationIndustries.AsecondbreakupofChinaTelecomisexpectedtoformtwolargetelecomoperators,ChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomGroup,whoarelikelytoreceivemobilelicenses.Afifthtelecomoperator,ChinaRailcom,alsohasthepotentialofreceivingathirdgenerationlicenseandbuildingamobilebusiness.Fornow,ChinaMobiledominatesthemarketwith82%valueshareand72%subscribershareandownsmuchofthehighvalueuserbase.Howeverchurnisalreadyhighandisexpectedtoincreasewithcontinuingpricingpressuresandincreasedcompetition.1402PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptCHINA’SMOBILEOPERATORLANDSCAPEHASEVOLVEDSIGNIFICANTLY,CULMINATINGINSECONDBREAKUPOFCHINATELECOMNomobilelicensescurrently

Source: Literaturesearch;EIUPyramid;IndustryreportsChinaTelecomChinaUnicomBecamethesecondmobilenetworkoperatorinmid1994However,ChinaTelecomasthesoleproviderofbothbasicandwirelesstelephonyservicesmadeitdifficultforUnicomtogrowChinaUnicomChinaRailcomChinaUnicomMinistryofPostsandTelecommunicationsCreatedin1994whenformerMPTseparatedintoregulatoryandoperatingfunctionsChinaTelecomownershiptransferredtoMinistryofFinance,withregulatoryfunctionsplacedinthenewMinistryofInformationIndustries(MII)ChinaTelecomChinaMobile(CMCC)ChinaTelecomChinaMobile(CMCC)Underthegovernment’santi-monopolyplan,inthe1sthalfof1999,ChinaTelecomwassplitinto4operatingcompanies:CTfixed,ChinaMobile,CTPaging,CT

SatelliteThechangebecameofficialonApril20,2000Priorto1994,theMPTactedastheregulatorandsoleoperatoroftelecommunicationsIn1993,announcementwasmadetoseparateoperatingandregulatoryfunctionsalongwiththeestablishmentofa2ndoperatorGreatWallEstablishedin1995toharnessPLA’sradiospectrumThecompanyundertakes“theCDMAproject”atthedirectionofthegovernmentGreatWallDuetogovernmentcommitmenttoseparatePLAfromcommercialactivities,GreatWalldissolvedwithdecisiontotransferCDMAassetstoChinaUnicommadeinOctober2000(transferyettobecompleted)2ndlargestfixedlinenetworkEstablishedDecember2000OfferslimitedGSMserviceoverit’srailwaynetworkPre1994RegulatorandOperator1994to1999VirtualMonopoly1999To2002Deregulation/Breakup2002andbeyond2ndbreakupandfuturelandscapeChinaNetcomEstablishedinSept.1999withinternetbackboneLikelylicensewinnerJitongJitongSetupin1994todevelopdatacommunicationserviceBegantoofferVoIPservicesLeadingplayerinvoiceoverIPChinaNetcomGroupChinaRailcomChinaTelecombrokenupintoNorthandSouthwithCTNorthmergingwithChinaNetcomandJitongtobecomeChinaNetcomGroupChinaTelecomSouthcontinuesoperationasChinaTelecomOperatingCDMAlocalloopservicesinseveralcitiesChinaMobileunaffectedbysecondbreakup,survivingproposaltomergeitwithJitong,givenconcernsaboutconsequencesofforcedmergersforpubliclylistedcompaniesChinaUnicomunaffectedbysecondbreakup,survivingproposaltomergeitwithRailcomWhileGreatWallCDMAassettransferhasyettobecompleted,UnicomwillbecomefirstmajoroperatorintheworldwithbothCDMAandGSMservices,withlaunchofitsownCDMAnetworkin2002Operatorbiddingfor3Glicense,withopennesstowardsadoptingChina’s3Gstandard,TD-SCDMA1502PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt Source: Literaturesearch;industryinterviewsBeforeAfterCTbreak-upMOSTRECENTBREAK-UPOFCHINATELECOMTOLEADTOALANDSCAPEOF5OPERATORSCOMPETINGACROSSBOTHMOBILEANDFIXEDLicensesLicensesAnnouncementonNovember26tomergeJitongwithChinaNetcomandChinaTelecomNorthernunitCompetitionwillincreaseasmergedtelecomgiantsobtainlicensesforcomprehensivetelecomoperations,includingFixed-linephoneMobilephoneInternet-relatedservicesOriginalplantomergeChinaMobilewithJitongandChinaUnicomwithChinaRailcom,metwithstrongdissentfromthecapitalmarketswhosawthisasanaffronttoChinaMobileandChinaUnicom’sgovernanceaspubliclyheldcompaniesMobileMobileFixedMobile(GSM-R)FixedFixedFixedFixedGROUPChinaTelecomNorthChinaTelecomSouthMobileFixedMobileFixedMobileFixedMobileFixedChinaRailcomChinaRailcomMobileFixedHavelicense1602PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptPROFILESOFCURRENTANDLIKELYFUTUREPLAYERSChinaassetsMobilestrategyCurrentpartnershipsLicenseprospects*Stilltobedecided~96millionmobilesubscribers~30millionmobilesubscribersServicescovering

over180citiesLargestnationaltelecomnetworkcovering2,000

citiesFirstoperatortointroduceinternetaccesscards,andannouncedon-lineshoppingcardtobelaunchedin2001Internetbackbonecovering17majorcitiesStartedIPphoneservicesinJanuary20002ndlargestnetworkinChina;coveringallmajorcities(>500cities)Betechnologyleader,thuseagertoenter3GFocusonhigh-endcustomersTrialingGPRSwith7vendorsStronglysupportingWAPShiftingattitudesontechnology,nowfirstplayertocoverbothGSMandCDMAFocusingattentionondevelopingCDMAnetworksTrialingGPRSwith4vendorsCompeteonserviceofferingwithexistingoperators,leveraginggovernmentandsupplierexpertiseActivewithWLLandlocalmobilityGostraightto3GifpossibleObtainmobilelicenseasquickaspossibleregardlessoftechnologystandardRolloutwirelessdataservicesevenifitmeanstakingGSM/GPRSfirstMayfocusinitiallyonGZ,BJ,SHLikelyintendsfollowing2-tierstructureObtain3Glicensetotargethigh-endusersUse2GPHStotargetvoicesubscribersVodafoneHPHutchisonKDDISKTelecomTelstraAT&TJapanTelecomBritishTelecomNewsCorporationGoldmanSachsSingTelNoneExistingExistingCurrentplayersChinaMobileChinaUnicomLikelyfutureplayersChinaTelecomChinaNetcomChinaRailcom * Governmentlikelytogrant2licenses;undecidedwhen,andwhattype;nonetobeawardedin2001 Source: PiperJaffrey;MerrillLynch;Literaturesearch1702PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptOTHERPLAYERSUNLIKELYTOATTAINMOBILELICENSES

Source: GoldmanSachs;EIUPyramid;McKinseyanalysisCenturyMobileJitongForeignJVEntrantsNewtelcosWhotheyareBasisforentryObstaclesConsortiumof10enterpriseswhohavejoinedtogethertotrytosetupmobileenterpriseSetupin1994todevelopdatacommunicationservicesPotentialJVsinvolvingforeigncompaniesNewplayersexpandingintotelecomSomegovernmentcontactsOriginallyconsideredtakeoverofGreatWall’sassetsOwns70%ofVoIPmarketGovernmenthasindicateddesiretoseemultipleoperationswithmultipleserviceofferingsGovernmentmaybepressuredtoshowmarketprogressandWTObenefitsForeignoperatorsandentitieseagertoinvestDesiretoenterwirelessgivenopportunitiesandconvergence

oftechnologiesGreatWallassetsmovedtoChinaUnicomNocurrentdiscussionregardingmobileservicesobservedLowcapabilitytoutilizemobilespectrumifallocatedWTOagreementsdonotrequirethatnewtelecomlicensesbeissuedtonewentrantsNationwidepresenceofforeigninvestmentnotpossibleforinitial3yearsunderWTOMIIwilllikelylimittheinfluenceofotherministriesontheirturf(e.g.,blockingSARFTentryintoInternet)1802PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.pptEXISTINGANDPOTENTIALMOBILEOPERATORSHOLDBROADBUTDIFFERENTCOMPETITIVEPOSITIONINGSANDSERVICEOFFERINGSBasicservicesChinaMobileChinaUnicomChinaTelecomChinaNetcomMobilevoiceserviceMobiledataserviceIPMultimediaservice

MobilevoiceserviceMobiledataserviceIPMultimediaserviceLocalcallDLDIDDPaging

IPMultimediaserviceLocalcallDLDIDD

WebhostingNetworkelementleaseandsale

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FaxVoicemailCallerIDCallwaitingSMSVPN

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VPNIDCISDN/DDNEDIISPE-mail

DatacommunicationPublicmultimediaservices

Source: 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