德勤-中石化財務(wù)控制咨詢報告

石油化工股份

財務(wù)本錢分析工程方案備注:本文檔所包含的內(nèi)容屬于DQ咨詢的商業(yè)機密，其知識產(chǎn)權(quán)也歸DQ咨詢所有，任何個人與實體在未經(jīng)DQ咨詢許可的情況下不得復(fù)制與分發(fā)。二零零一年四月十日目錄DQDQ咨詢對于石化成本分析項目的理解DQ咨詢對于石油化工行業(yè)的成本分析案例介紹股東價值驅(qū)動的分析模型如何在石化一體企業(yè)中實施財務(wù)分析系統(tǒng)DQ咨詢推薦的對于石化成本分析的解決方案規(guī)劃DQ咨詢實施工具介紹問答目錄DQDQ咨詢對于中石化成本分析項目的理解DQ咨詢對于石油化工行業(yè)的成本分析案例介紹股東價值驅(qū)動的分析模型如何在石化一體企業(yè)中實施財務(wù)分析系統(tǒng)DQ咨詢推薦的對于中石化成本分析的解決方案規(guī)劃DQ咨詢預(yù)計的本階段項目實施的范圍DQ咨詢實施工具介紹問答中國石油化工股份有限公司為建立現(xiàn)代企業(yè)制度，提高企業(yè)的競爭力，建立了統(tǒng)一的財務(wù)管理信息系統(tǒng)。

（1）建立了全公司三級（決策中心、利潤中心、成本中心）統(tǒng)一標準的財務(wù)管理和會計核算網(wǎng)絡(luò)系統(tǒng)。

（2）建立了滿足中國會計準則、國際會計準則，基于財務(wù)邏輯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的總部、分（子）公司、生產(chǎn)廠三級統(tǒng)一的財務(wù)管理和會計核算體系；

（3）提高了會計信息的及時性、準確性，加強監(jiān)管能力，為決策支持提供更豐富的財務(wù)信息；

（4）支持公司總部績效考核管理體系，為領(lǐng)導(dǎo)決策提供科學(xué)、準確、快捷的服務(wù)；（5）開發(fā)符合國際會計準則和上市信息披露規(guī)則的財務(wù)管理和會計核算軟件；

（6）建立了分布式財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)庫，支持財務(wù)會計數(shù)據(jù)的實時向上復(fù)制、向下穿透查詢和網(wǎng)上在線對帳；中石化財務(wù)管理信息系統(tǒng)建設(shè)的整體目標中石化產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈與本錢管理

原油勘探

原油開采

煉油

化工生產(chǎn)

產(chǎn)品銷售成本核算/管理生產(chǎn)成本管理

成

本銷

售成

本全方位成本管理采夠成本股東價值驅(qū)動的分析模型指標運作價值管理需要以下三個核心局部有效地運作價值管理戰(zhàn)略超前的戰(zhàn)略領(lǐng)先的地位系統(tǒng)流程管理準確的指標準確的尺度價值衡量需要有一整套指數(shù)EVAisaregisteredtrademarkoftheSternStewartCompany…最可靠的衡量指數(shù):股東回報率TotalShareholderReturn(TSR)投資資本的現(xiàn)金流回報Cashflowreturnongrossinvestedcapital(CFROI)加權(quán)平均的資本本錢Weighted-AverageCostofCapital(WACC)可持續(xù)的資產(chǎn)增長率SustainableAssetGrowthRate未來現(xiàn)金流量的凈現(xiàn)值Netpresentvalueoffuturecashflows(NPVorDCF)是否在創(chuàng)造價值?表現(xiàn)如何?什么是最低投資回報?如何衡量增長?公司的價值?需要衡量的對象....股東回報率TSR衡量上市公司的價值增長為什么TSR是衡量價值增長的最好指標股東回報率TSR定義TSR=(市場差價+分紅)/價格=(2+1)/10=30%12110股價t=0分紅股價t=n反映了公司最終擁有者的回報率用作各投資機構(gòu)的積分卡不受會計操作的影響全面表達獲利率和和增長率是高層管理者持股分配的根底股票價格分紅獲利率和增長率驅(qū)動股價股東回報率(TSR)衡量分析指數(shù)投資者回報TSR定義投資資本的現(xiàn)金流回報CFROI可持續(xù)增長自由現(xiàn)金流投資資本的現(xiàn)金流回報CFROI全面衡量公司業(yè)績當上市公司擁有以下特征時，較為適合使用CFROI:常年限的固定資產(chǎn)(平均超過15年)具有大量固定資產(chǎn)固定資產(chǎn)非常陳舊或非常新具有大型投資模板和行為益處CFROI定義跨國家，跨行業(yè)，跨時間比較不受資產(chǎn)的年限和組合的影響全面使內(nèi)部決策和外部資本市場的表現(xiàn)掛鉤提供投資工程的回憶審計與資本本錢可直接比較資產(chǎn)年限營運資本總現(xiàn)金流動量總投資額CFROI=IRRonabusinessCFROI計算結(jié)果(1999年)542406446,06822,29210,4119,36948,140564216312141383891NetIncomeDepreciationInterestExpenseMinorityInterestGrossCashFlowNetWorkingCapital+Land+Investments=NonDepreciatingAssetsNetFixedAssetsAccum.Depr.*InflationAdjustment*GrossInvestment資產(chǎn)年限=20營運資本+土地Sinopec1999($millions)Source:DCAnalysis,CompanyfinancialstatementsCFROI=IRR=6.1%48,1404,0796,068*DCEstimatesPeers?CostofCapital?PlanCFROI?IRR：內(nèi)部收益率592707396,66622,89710,5999,53949,7011926*2322*814*110*5172*NetIncomeDepreciationInterestExpenseMinorityInterestGrossCashFlowNetWorkingCapital+Land+Investments=NonDepreciatingAssetsNetFixedAssetsAccum.Depr.*InflationAdjustment*GrossInvestment資產(chǎn)年限=20營運資本+土地Sinopec2000($millions)Source:DCAnalysis,CompanyfinancialstatementsCFROI=IRR=8.6%49,7015,1726,666*DCEstimatesPeers?CostofCapital?PlanCFROI?CFROI計算結(jié)果(2000年)IRR：內(nèi)部收益率PositiveSpreadBusinessNeutralSpreadBusinessNegativeSpreadBusinessDiscountRate:WACCIncreaseCFROIHoldCFROI GrowAssetsErodeCFROI GrowFasterIncreaseCFROIThenGrowIncreaseCFROIReduceReinvestmentDivestorLiquidateCFROI%StrategiesforValueCreation任何業(yè)務(wù)都可創(chuàng)造價值–但需要按不同的情況設(shè)定戰(zhàn)略Note:thisappliestobusinessunitsaswellascorporationsoverall市場是如何設(shè)定股價的?CFROIAssetSizeFadeNetCashFlows1+DiscountRateSharePriceAssetGrowth=Investors評估使用表現(xiàn)指標和貼現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流量GrossInvestmentSustainableGrowthPVCashFlowExistingAssetsPVCashFlowFutureInvestmentTotalEconomicValue-MarketValueofDebt1)EquityValue34236-102633210-12687205231)ST<,minorityinterest2.2%$49,701m8.2%10%$mil$29.83/shareFadeRateDiscountRate7.0%CFROISinopec,Fiscal2000estimate的股價是由CFROI和增長決定的RealAssetGrowthRate(%)CFROI(%)15.7417.1117.814.230.70

29.8328.628.246.5243.2340.0612.2Sinopecequityvalue(fiscal2000)BaseCaseWhatisitworthifweimprove?Note:GrowthonlyimprovesvalueifCFROIimprovesto“positivespread〞如何在一體企業(yè)中實施財務(wù)分析系統(tǒng)CEO/BoardBusinessUnitsOperationsHowdoIinfluenceSharePrice?Whatisthebestwaytoallocatemycapital?HowdoIimproveexecution?Determinewherevalueisbeingcreated/destroyedAllocatecapitallikeaportfoliomanagerImplementaconsistent&planningprocesslinkedtoKPI’sandcomp.CommunicatetothemarketinalanguagetheyrespondtoFundManagersShareholdersHowdoImaximizeshareholderreturns?Realizemaximumvalueforshareholders-TSR股價和運營的聯(lián)接LinktoKPIs各種價值指標的波動直接影響股價ValueSinopecCFROI1.1%AssetLife20yearsAssetTurns0.36GrossPlantAssetTurns0.44NetCashFlowAssetGrowth0.46%FadeRate10%/yearSizeDifferential-.72LeverageDifferential+.57GrossCashFlow2.394AdjustedGrossAssets48,002Non-Dep.Assets6,666OperatingMargin16.2%SalesGrowth-??%COGSasa%ofSales78.1%SG&Aasa%ofSales5.6%InventoryTurns3.98A/RTurns9.11CFROIVariabilityHighPloughbackLowtoAverageCountryDiscountRate6.5%1+WACC=UnitVolumePriceRealisationLinktoKPIsValueDriversprovidethedirectionandKPIsprovidethefeedback.Amulti-tiersystemofmeasuresisoptimal,withthemostaccurate(andusuallycomplicated)usedbythefinancedepartment.Fromthereon,simplificationandcontrollabilityofKPIsiscriticalastheyaredrivenbroadlyanddeeplythroughouttheorganisationRevenueGrowthOperatingMargins/ExpensesWorkingCapitalAssetProductivity

StimulateSalesEconomicDevelActivitiesExpandserviceterritory

ManageCostFuelusageWageRates

ManageCashBilling/CollectionCycleFuelandStockInvestment

ReturnonCapitalAssetAvailabilityAssetUtilisationCashFlowInvestment財務(wù)回報價值驅(qū)動KPIs%RevNewProducts%RevNewMarketsAverageheatrate%CostReductionInventoryTurnsReceivableTurnsEquivalentAvailabilityCapacityFactor方向反響戰(zhàn)略我們該觀注什么?我們?nèi)绾稳プ?如何知道我們做得對?KPI被用于監(jiān)督運作，反響于目標設(shè)立什么是目標?LinktoKPIsXXXPECChemicalsMarketingRefiningUpstreamStrategyfocusedoncompetitivepositionandnewproductsCostcontrol,capacityutilization,newproductdevelopmentandproductlinemanagementStrategyfocusedoncompetitivepositionPricing,regionalshiftsandformateconomicsarekeydriversManysmallbetsValuedrivenbycustomerstrategy,storeeconomicsandgrowthStrategyfocusedonflexibilityversusefficiencyLockedintoLPMindset?Find“outofbox〞optionsCostcontrolandthroughputarekeyshort-termvaluedriversStrategyfocusedoninvestmentoptionsFieldversusnewgeographyinvestmentandexplorationcostsversussuccessratearekeydriversManybetsValuedrivenbypriceinvestmentstrategyandoperatingeffectivenessProductlineTSR,PlantCFROIBUTSR&StationCFROIProjectIRRandrefineryCFROIBUTSR&projectIRRMetricsimplemented按不同的事業(yè)部特性確定價值衡量指標LinktoKPIs%GrossInvestmentCFROI102030405060708090100-5051020GasExploration6.0ChemicalsRefiningandMarketingCostofCapital15各類投資工程的審核從劃分事業(yè)部起始GrowthProjectsCFROIImprovementProjectsCFROIImprovementProjects:Assetmanagement%ofGrossInvestment%AvgCFROIinPlan102030405060708090100-505101520253035Chemical1ExplorationGas1Chemical2Gas2Gas3MarketingRefining6.0CostofCapitalChemical3Chemical4而事業(yè)部進一步按業(yè)務(wù)類型細化石油開采事業(yè)部市場零售煉油舉例：細分后的不同結(jié)果LinktoStrategyCleaningSuppliesHouseholdProductsChemicalAdditivesFertilizersSpecialtyPlastics產(chǎn)品市場零售工業(yè)商業(yè)政府直銷MajorMarketMinorMarketNocurrentmarket舉例(續(xù))：按銷售渠道進一步細化市場零售事業(yè)部LinktoStrategy利潤表:銷售利潤管理費用利息折舊稅務(wù)資產(chǎn)負債表:應(yīng)收帳款存貨固定資產(chǎn)應(yīng)付帳款負債可獲取可獲取按人力分配按負債額分配預(yù)定年限D(zhuǎn)ivisionrate按產(chǎn)品可獲取特殊區(qū)分按銷售本錢按負債/權(quán)益會計科目表預(yù)計流程而進一步將資產(chǎn)分配到各市場單位可深入分析投資回報率LinktoStrategy102030405060708090100-10-5051015202530商業(yè)直銷零售工業(yè)政府CFROI%%GrossInvestmentWACCConsolidatedCFROI渠道獲利率分析揭示了渠道的強弱LinktoStrategySampleStoresCFROISiteKeep?KeepFixCloseStrongWeakWeakStrongStoresweregroupedfornextstepsCostofCapital6.0%Cons.CFROI17.0%-5051015202530Management而零售渠道的進一步細分可揭示各零售點的強弱LinktoStrategyPrice/OrderOrderSize01234560102030405060708090100Problemorders而工業(yè)渠道注重于挖掘擴展能使之盈利的顧客LinktoStrategyCommercialDirectSalesRetailIndustrialGovernmentCustomerGroupGoodbusiness,butlimitedgrowthGenerallyignored,profitablebutunexciting

WellmanagedValuemature

ThoughttobeprofitableGoodrelationshipswithcustomers

ProblemareaNecessaryevilPriorView10%increaseingrowthdoublesvalue“Hiddenjewel〞-re-addressedmarketingstrategyResultsbelowpeersinregionThroughputidentifiedaskeyvaluedriverSiteacquisitionmodelre-doneAssetintensitythekeyFocusonraisingCFROISignificantproblemareaPostVBMViewMaintainAggressivegrowthplansSiteimprovementprogramNewstoreformat

EvaluateaccountsindividuallyFocusonvaluablecustomers

FocusonimprovingCFROIExpandintootherproductsPossibleexitNextSteps分析的結(jié)果引起顯著的戰(zhàn)略變化LinktoStrategyCorporateOfficeInternal“CapitalMarket〞BU1BU2BU3ProjectLifeOutlayProjectLifeOutlayCashFlowCashFlowProjectProjectInternalViewInvestorsExternal“CapitalMarket〞Stock1Stock2Stock3ExternalViewAccountingDataSharePriceIncomeStatementBalanceSheetEPS,ROE,ROCECFROIGrowthWACCFadeCFROICashFlowGrossAssets

AssetLifeCFROI既用于外部投資，也由于內(nèi)部管理CFROIRevenueCostsOperatingProfitTaxProfitandLossStatementWorkingcapitalFixedAssetsLiabilitiesDebtEquityBalanceSheetCFROI汲取了利潤表和資產(chǎn)負債表中的各類數(shù)據(jù)(1)CFROI汲取了利潤表和資產(chǎn)負債表中的各類數(shù)據(jù)(2)RevenueCostsOperatingProfitTaxProfitandLossStatementOperatingMarginGrossMarginExpenseMarginSellingcostsAdmincostsOverheadcostsOthercostsRawMaterialcostsRefiningCostsOverheadcosts方案驅(qū)動預(yù)算8.2%8.7%8.7%ActualBudgetKey16.2%16.5%CFROIOperatingMarginAssetTurnover22.1%23.5%GrossMargin5.6%5.0%ExpenseMargin65.2%60.5%RawMaterialRefiningCosts4.0%3.5%SellingCostsAdminCosts.87.90FixedAssets12.014.0WorkingCapital8.010.0Receivables18.020.0Inventory75%80%UtilisationRate10%12%Maintenance0.738.7%0.8017.3%16.7%1.0%1.0%驅(qū)動預(yù)算三個主要方面ProvidesafinancialprothebusinessforcommunicationandanalysisNon-financialmanagersbroughtintovalueequationSummarymeasuresbrokendownintopartsforgreaterfocusGraphicallydisplaysacomparisonofperformancestandardsActualversusbudgetCurrentversushistoricSinopecperformanceversus“bestpractice〞Relationshipscanbeusedfor“whatif?〞analysis:10%Improvementin:ResultsinCFROIChangeof:Revenue1.7%CostofGoodsSold2.1%OperatingCosts4.4%OverheadCosts1.1%AFAFinancialInvestmentAeltusInvestmentMgmt.,Inc.AlexBrownCapitalAlliedInvestmentAdvisorsAllianceCapitalMgmt.Corp.AmericanCenturyAmericanCenturyInvestmentAtlanticCapitalMgmt.AtlasCapital,L.P.ArdenGroup,Inc.,TheAuchincloss&Lawrence,Inc.BPAmerica,Inc.BTRCapitalManagement,Inc.Bahl&GaynorInvestmentCounselBankofAmericaBayIsleFinancialBoys,Arnold&CompanyCambiarInvestmentInc.CanyonPartnersInc.CapitalResearchCo.CapitalTechnologyCastleRockPartnersChaseInvestmentCounselCorp.CitibankCliffordAssociatesColumbiaManagementCo.CompositeResearch&ManagementCompu-ValInvestmentsCrabbeHusonGroup,Inc.Cramblit&Carney,Inc.CreeksideInvestmentManagementCrestwoodAssetManagementDavisSelectedAdvisors,L.P.DavisSkaggsInvestmentMgmt.DeanWitterIntercapitalInc.DelawareInvestmentAdvisors,Inc.EagleGlobalAdvisorsEatonCorporationEdwardJones&Co.EnrightFinancialConsultantsEquinoxCapitalManagementEveans,Bash,Magrino&Klein,Inc.FarmersInsuranceGroupofCompaniesFirstNationalBank,SWOhioFlemingCapitalManagementFrontierInvestmentManagementCo.FrostNationalBankGMG/SenecaCapitalManagementGEMLandCompanyGeneralAccidentInsuranceCo.GeneralMotorsInv.Mgmt.Corp.GlobeFlexCapitalGoefen&Glossberg,Inc.GreenleafCapitalManagementGriesFinancialCorp.Guardian,TheHGKAssetManagement,Inc.Hotchkis&WileyHowardHughesMedicalInstituteHughesInvestmentManagementCo.HutchensInvestmentManagementInvestmentAdvisors,Inc.InvestmentCounselors,Inc.JanusJohnsonInvestmentCounsel,Inc.Jurika&Voyles,Inc.,InvestmentMgmt.KPMInvestmentManagement,Inc.KalmarInvestments,Inc.KanawhaCapitalManagementKempnerCapitalManagement,Inc.KennedyCapitalManagementKunathKarrenRinne&Atkin,Inc.LegacyCapitalManagementLeggMasonCapitalMgmt.,Inc.LeonardManagementGroupLockheedMartinCorpLoganCapitalManagement,Inc.LutherKingCapitalMgmt.LutheranChurch,TheMcMurreyInvestmentAdvisors,Inc.MercantileTrustMeridianInvestmentCompanyMerrillLynchAssetManagementMesirowFinancialMississippiValleyAdvisorsMontagManagementNationalCityBankNikeSecuritiesL.P.NoroianCapitalManagementNorwestCapitalAdvisorsNWQInvestmentManagementCo.OppenheimerCapitalOppenheimerFunds,Inc.OppenheimerManagementPacificAllianceCapitalParnassusFund,ThePeregrineCapitalManagementPhilipV.SwanAssociatesPioneeringManagementCorp.PlazaInvestmentManagers,Inc.PrudentialMutualFundInvestmentPSAFinancialPutnamCompanies,Inc.RCMCapitalManagement,LLCRMInvestmentManagement,Inc.RichardBlum&AssociatesRoberts,Glore&Co.RobertsonStephens&Co.RogerH.Jenswold&Co.,Inc.Roulston&Company,Inc.SalomonBrothersAssetManagementSandHillAdvisors,Inc.SchneiderCapitalSCICapitalManagementScholtz&CompanySecuritiesManagement&ResearchSeligman,J.W.&Co.,Inc.SentinelTrustCo.SMCCapitalManagementSheffieldInvestmentManagementShields/AllianceSignetAssetManagementSmithBarneyInvestmentAdvisorsSorosFundManagementSovereignAdvisors,Inc.SpearsBenzakSalomon&FarrellSperoSmithInvestmentAdvisers,Inc.StaffordTradingStandardPacificCapitalLLCStarBankStarbuck,Tisdale&AssociatesStateofNewJerseyStateStreetResearchSteinRow&FarnhamSterlingLtd.StonebridgeCapitalManagementInc.StoneleighInvestmentCounselingStrongCapitalManagement,Inc.Sturdivant&Company,Inc.SummitInvestmentManagementSunLifeofCanadaTigerAssetManagementT.RowePriceTexasCommerceBankTRUSCOCapitalManagementTrustCompanyoftheWestUSAAInvestmentManagementCo.VARetirementSystemW.D.Hutchinson&AssociatesWashingtonInvestmentAdvisorsWeiss,Peck&GreerInvestmentsWellingtonManagementCompanyWoodsideAssetManagementFidelityInvestmentsInvescoCapitalManagement.在美國使用CFROI的財務(wù)機構(gòu)AeltusInvestmentManagement,Inc.AMPInvestmentsAustraliaAmericanExpressAssetManagementIntlAXA–SunLifeInvestManagementService*BOEAssetManagementBFGBankAGBankersTrust–JapanBaringInternationalBritishAerospacePensionInvestmentCIS–Co-operativeInsuranceSocietyCSAssetManagementCapitalGroupCompanies,Inc.CitibankGlobalAssetManagementDEKA–DeutscheKapitalanlagegesellschaftDresdnerRCMCapitalManagementDresdnerRCMGlobalInvestorsAsia,Ltd.DeutscheMorganGrenfelAssetManagementEquitilinkFidelityInvestmentServicesFirstStateFundManagersLtd.,AustraliaFlemingInvestmentManagementGartmoreInvestmentManagement*GIC–GovernmentofSingaporeInvestmentGIMGeneralInvestmentManagementB.V.GlobeFlexCapitalHSBCAssetManagementHongKongLtd.HSBCAssetManagementJapan,KKHypovereinsbankIBJ–IndustrialBankofJapanINVESCOAssetManagementInvescoGTAssetManagementPLCIOOFFundsManagementJanusJardineFlemingInvestmentJuliusBaerAssetManagementLabouchere&Co.PrivateBankingLibertyAssetManagementLimitedLingohr&PartnerAssetManagementM&GGroupMarathonAssetManagement