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證券研究報(bào)告持)5證券研究報(bào)告持)5月石油和化工行業(yè)景氣指數(shù)回落,俄羅斯賴氨酸工廠遭襲,MDI、VB2、賴氨酸價(jià)格持續(xù)走高重點(diǎn)公司投資要點(diǎn)評(píng)級(jí)萬華化學(xué)5.99買入華魯恒升2.963.00買入揚(yáng)農(nóng)化工579664買入中國(guó)巨石58增持新和成2增持桐昆股份0.052增持聯(lián)化科技0.750.77增持華峰化學(xué)0.570.63增持金禾實(shí)業(yè)3.027買入恒力石化0.33增持衛(wèi)星化學(xué)0910增持榮盛石化0.330.58增持東方盛虹0.086增持天賜材料2.973.51增持福斯特2.01增持新宙邦236308增持相關(guān)報(bào)告《【興證化工】基化新材料周報(bào)——華為上調(diào)2023年手機(jī)出貨量目標(biāo),中國(guó)鉀肥大合同簽(20230612-20230618)》本周化工與新材料行業(yè)回顧5月石油和化工行業(yè)景氣指數(shù)回落,降至94.95。2023年5月,石油和化工行業(yè)景氣指數(shù)回落,降至94.95,較2023年4月下降3.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn),略低于正常區(qū)間,暫處于偏冷區(qū)間;較2022年5月下降1.01個(gè)百分點(diǎn),降幅快速收窄。分行業(yè)來看,在成本端降價(jià)的影響下,石油和化工行業(yè)利潤(rùn)下滑,景氣指數(shù)回落。受出行和貨運(yùn)需求旺季支撐,燃料加工業(yè)景氣指數(shù)環(huán)比下降2.35個(gè)百分點(diǎn),在分行業(yè)中降幅最小。石油和天然氣開采業(yè)景氣指數(shù)環(huán)比下降3.11個(gè)百分點(diǎn),景氣指數(shù)回落至偏熱區(qū)間。在階段性產(chǎn)能過剩的壓力下,化學(xué)原料和化學(xué)制品制造業(yè)與橡膠、塑料和其他聚合物制品制造業(yè)景氣指數(shù)環(huán)比降幅均超過4個(gè)百分點(diǎn),景氣指數(shù)跌至過冷預(yù)警區(qū)間。俄羅斯主要賴氨酸工廠遭襲,其8萬噸產(chǎn)能停產(chǎn)。據(jù)俄羅斯新聞媒體報(bào)道,俄羅斯ZAOPrioskolie負(fù)責(zé)賴氨酸生產(chǎn)的生產(chǎn)工廠PremixPlantN°1近期遭到襲擊并起火,部分廠房受損。該區(qū)域已經(jīng)停電,絕大部分人員已經(jīng)撤離。PremixPlantN°1工廠幾乎所有員工都被疏散,已經(jīng)停止運(yùn)營(yíng),近期內(nèi)較難恢復(fù)生產(chǎn),同時(shí)現(xiàn)有庫(kù)存的貨物也無法發(fā)出。PremixPlantN°1的賴氨酸生產(chǎn)能力在2019年達(dá)到了8萬噸/年,是俄羅斯市場(chǎng)的主要賴氨酸供貨商,俄羅斯市場(chǎng)對(duì)中國(guó)賴氨酸出口需求或?qū)⒋蠓黾?,將影響中?guó)賴氨酸生產(chǎn)企業(yè)出口需求,尤其是已經(jīng)獲得俄羅斯市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入的中國(guó)賴氨酸生產(chǎn)企業(yè)。俄羅斯市場(chǎng)需按相關(guān)法規(guī)要求經(jīng)注冊(cè)后方可銷售,目前獲得俄羅斯賴氨酸注冊(cè)的中國(guó)企業(yè)有伊品生物、萬里潤(rùn)達(dá)。當(dāng)前臨近國(guó)內(nèi)氨基酸企業(yè)檢修期,行業(yè)供給減少或提振市場(chǎng)價(jià)格。建議關(guān)注:星湖科技、梅花生物。特斯拉Cybertruck交付進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)。蓋世汽車6月10日訊,特斯拉向其供應(yīng)商發(fā)布Cybertruck生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃,目標(biāo)年產(chǎn)量由25萬輛提升至37.5萬輛,將于2023年10月初開始正式生產(chǎn)。我們看好生產(chǎn)目標(biāo)提升后的供應(yīng)鏈彈性,受益標(biāo)的:斯迪克。中國(guó)化工品價(jià)格指數(shù)(CCPI):本周CCPI較上周下跌0.6%,較上月同%。本周漲幅較大的產(chǎn)品:TTF現(xiàn)貨,+67%;英國(guó)NBP現(xiàn)貨,+64%;日本LNG現(xiàn)貨,+35%;維生素B2(80%,國(guó)產(chǎn)),+31%,碳酸亞乙烯酯(VC),+8%。本周跌幅較大的產(chǎn)品:多晶硅(致密料),-20%;煤焦油(華東),-14%;磷礦石(30%,貴州),-13%;纈氨酸(99%,國(guó)產(chǎn)),-13%;人造石墨負(fù)極材料,張zhangzhiyang@S0190520010003吉金jijin@S0190522030003張勛zhangxun19@S0190521100002劉夢(mèng)嵐liumenglan@S0190522070006請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明行業(yè)周報(bào)請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-2-中短期投資策略23Q1主動(dòng)管理型公募基金重倉(cāng)持股中基礎(chǔ)化工持倉(cāng)市值占比5.88% (季度環(huán)比+0.57pcts,季度同比-0.78pcts),石油石化持倉(cāng)市值占比1.02%(季度環(huán)比-0.18pcts,季度同比-0.01pcts)。站在當(dāng)前時(shí)點(diǎn),化企龍頭在產(chǎn)品盈利修復(fù)預(yù)期較強(qiáng)的背景下,估值已跌至較低水平,以龍頭公司周期底部業(yè)績(jī)測(cè)算來看,該估值仍具有強(qiáng)安全邊際,化企核心資產(chǎn)配置性價(jià)比持續(xù)凸顯,建議繼續(xù)買入化工龍頭公司。重點(diǎn)推薦:中國(guó)化工產(chǎn)業(yè)格局重塑關(guān)鍵力量,萬華化學(xué)、華魯恒升、揚(yáng)農(nóng)化工等?;A(chǔ)化工:化工品價(jià)格觸底反彈,龍頭白馬充分受益。我們認(rèn)為在國(guó)內(nèi)政策刺激、需求向好背景下,化工品盈利至暗時(shí)刻已過,基礎(chǔ)化工品盈利存修復(fù)之動(dòng)力,但考慮到歷經(jīng)兩年景氣周期,中觀維度在建工程正欲投產(chǎn),化工品價(jià)格修復(fù)彈性有待驗(yàn)證,但龍頭白馬產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈一體化、規(guī)模優(yōu)勢(shì)明顯,成本領(lǐng)先,有望于價(jià)格修復(fù)過程中率先受益。重點(diǎn)推薦萬華化學(xué)、華魯恒升、龍佰集團(tuán)等。新材料:消費(fèi)電子復(fù)蘇預(yù)期,蘋果MR產(chǎn)品進(jìn)入推廣階段,重點(diǎn)關(guān)注國(guó)瓷材料、斯迪克;鋰電回收產(chǎn)業(yè)趨勢(shì),重點(diǎn)關(guān)注鋰離子電池萃取相關(guān)公司;光伏裝機(jī)增加疊加topcon需求放量,重點(diǎn)關(guān)注POE價(jià)格上行之可本周基礎(chǔ)化工品價(jià)格概況行業(yè)開工負(fù)荷下跌,聚合MDI價(jià)格上漲。根據(jù)百川資訊,供應(yīng)方面,上??扑紕?chuàng)由于原料供應(yīng)問題,裝置降負(fù)運(yùn)行,本周MDI行業(yè)開工負(fù)荷下跌,廠商控量發(fā)貨,市場(chǎng)整體供應(yīng)縮減,廠商挺價(jià)心態(tài)明確。需求方面,新能源專用車行業(yè)受出口和政策影響,對(duì)MDI需求尚可。本周下游廠商整體按需生產(chǎn),剛需繼續(xù)推進(jìn)。本周聚合MDI(華東)價(jià)格周環(huán)比上漲3.1%至16800元/噸,華東MDI綜合價(jià)差(至純苯)增厚2.8%至13575元/噸?,F(xiàn)貨縮減,TDI價(jià)格上漲。根據(jù)百川資訊和隆眾資訊,供應(yīng)方面,上海聯(lián)恒6.11開始檢修。TDI行業(yè)整體開工負(fù)荷下跌,市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)貨緊缺,供方挺價(jià)意愿濃厚。本周TDI行業(yè)開工率為69%,環(huán)比下降8pcts。需求方面,下游剛需繼續(xù)跟進(jìn),消耗庫(kù)存為主。本周TDI(華東)價(jià)格周環(huán)比上漲4.3%至17000元/噸,TDI-甲苯-硝酸-燒堿價(jià)差增厚7.5%至10720元/噸。剛需補(bǔ)貨,丁辛醇價(jià)格上漲。根據(jù)百川資訊,供應(yīng)方面,山東建蘭21萬噸辛醇裝置、大慶石化丁辛醇裝置停車檢修,寧夏百川丁醇裝置低負(fù)荷運(yùn)行。本周丁辛醇行業(yè)開工負(fù)荷小幅下跌,整體庫(kù)存低位,市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)緊張,廠商挺價(jià)心態(tài)較強(qiáng)。本周辛醇行業(yè)開工率為89.76%,環(huán)比下跌1.36pcts;正丁醇行業(yè)開工率為84.76%,環(huán)比下跌1.28pcts。需求方面,下游部分廠商由于前期原料儲(chǔ)備不足,階段性剛需補(bǔ)貨,采購(gòu)積請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-3-極性較高。本周正丁醇(華東)和異辛醇(華東)價(jià)格周環(huán)比分別上漲4.4%和6.4%至7050元/噸和9200元/噸,異辛醇-丙烯價(jià)差增厚14.8%至4296元/噸。國(guó)內(nèi)檢修臨近,海外俄羅斯工廠遭襲擊停產(chǎn),蘇氨酸、賴氨酸等氨基酸價(jià)格上漲。根據(jù)百川資訊和飼料行業(yè)信息網(wǎng),供應(yīng)方面,萬里潤(rùn)達(dá)賴氨酸裝置六月份存檢修計(jì)劃,伊品生物黑龍江及內(nèi)蒙基地賴氨酸、蘇氨酸裝置預(yù)計(jì)6-7月停產(chǎn)檢修,6月初俄羅斯年產(chǎn)8萬噸賴氨酸工廠裝置因遭遇導(dǎo)彈襲擊并起火,目前已停止生產(chǎn)。此外,蘇氨酸、賴氨酸企業(yè)臨近6月氨基酸傳統(tǒng)檢修季,其主流生產(chǎn)廠家預(yù)計(jì)將陸續(xù)開啟檢修。本周蘇氨酸、賴氨酸廠商裝置開工負(fù)荷下跌,市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)貨緊張,部分廠商停報(bào)價(jià)格,在產(chǎn)廠家提價(jià)。本周蘇氨酸行業(yè)開工率為54%,環(huán)比下跌1pcts;賴氨酸行業(yè)開工率為57%,環(huán)比下跌0.5pcts。需求方面,下游整體需求穩(wěn)定,企業(yè)按照庫(kù)存消耗情況進(jìn)行采購(gòu)。俄羅斯市場(chǎng)由于意外襲擊事件對(duì)中國(guó)賴氨酸需求大幅增加,采購(gòu)積極性較高。報(bào)價(jià)方面,6月13日萬里潤(rùn)達(dá)蘇氨酸報(bào)價(jià)上調(diào)至14元/千克,98%賴氨酸外貿(mào)報(bào)價(jià)上調(diào)200元/噸,內(nèi)貿(mào)價(jià)格98%含量上調(diào)至9.7元/千克,70%賴氨酸含量?jī)r(jià)格上調(diào)至5.2元/千克。本周蘇氨酸(99%,國(guó)產(chǎn))和賴氨酸(98.5%,國(guó)產(chǎn))價(jià)格周環(huán)比分別上漲3.4%和3.5%至12.3元/千克和8.95元/千克。維生素B2價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲。根據(jù)百川資訊和博亞和訊,維生素B2由于前期價(jià)格已跌至低位,廠商出貨意愿下降,目前部分廠家已停報(bào)停簽,發(fā)貨延遲,市場(chǎng)惜售情緒濃厚,在產(chǎn)廠家提價(jià)。需求方面,下游維持剛需。6月13日海嘉諾和豐銀飼料級(jí)80%維生素B2簽單價(jià)格分別為153.00元/千克和155元/千克。本周維生素B2(80%,國(guó)產(chǎn))價(jià)格為127.5元/千克,周環(huán)比上漲30.8%。CCMP價(jià)格上漲。根據(jù)百川資訊,CCMP上游原料端價(jià)格高位維穩(wěn),成本支撐力度充足。需求方面,下游需求穩(wěn)定,剛需采購(gòu)為主,廠家上調(diào)出廠價(jià)格。本周CCMP價(jià)格為65000元/噸,周環(huán)比上漲4.8%。碳酸亞乙烯酯價(jià)格上漲。根據(jù)百川資訊,碳酸亞乙烯酯由于前期價(jià)格已跌至低位,廠商利潤(rùn)較低,整體出貨意愿下降,市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)縮緊,廠商挺價(jià)意愿濃厚。本周碳酸亞乙烯酯(VC)價(jià)格周環(huán)比上漲8.3%至65000元/噸。重點(diǎn)公司:萬華化學(xué)、華魯恒升、揚(yáng)農(nóng)化工、中國(guó)巨石、桐昆股份、華峰化學(xué)、恒力石化、衛(wèi)星化學(xué)、金禾實(shí)業(yè)、新和成、國(guó)瓷材料、東材科技、昊華科技、榮盛石化、東方盛虹、福斯特、天賜材料、新宙邦等。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示:化工產(chǎn)品需求不達(dá)預(yù)期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),國(guó)際油價(jià)大幅下跌的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),環(huán)保落實(shí)不力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-4- 表目錄表1、重點(diǎn)跟蹤化工產(chǎn)品價(jià)格與價(jià)差.....................................................................-8- 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-5- 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-6- a 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-7- -8-行業(yè)周報(bào)表1、重點(diǎn)跟蹤化工產(chǎn)品價(jià)格與價(jià)差產(chǎn)品單單位更新日期本周上周周漲幅上月同期月漲幅上季度同期季度漲幅年初年內(nèi)漲幅指數(shù)中國(guó)化工品價(jià)格指數(shù)CCPI-2023/06/1642674291-0.6%440348004782%人民幣對(duì)美元匯率(中間價(jià))-2023/06/160.2%7.03561.3%6.83744.3%6.89123.4%人民幣對(duì)歐元匯率(中間價(jià))-2023/06/167.80427.66921.8%7.58292.9%7.40695.4%7.25357.6%美元指數(shù)-2023/06/16102.28103.56-0.9%-0.8%103.91S&P500-2023/06/164409.594298.862.6%4191.985.2%3970.9911.0%3895.0813.2%黃金現(xiàn)貨價(jià)美元/盎司2023/06/161959.751960.300.0%1961.601993.801852.205.8%CRB商品價(jià)格指數(shù)-2023/06/16552.93545.871.3%543.501.7%544.791.5%554.33-0.3%貨代運(yùn)價(jià)指數(shù)CFFI:中國(guó)-歐洲-2023/06/16281828180.0%3029-7.0%3422%3243貨代運(yùn)價(jià)指數(shù)CFFI:中國(guó)-北美-2023/06/16308230820.0%3257-5.4%37194101-24.8%原油WTI期貨(主連合約)美元/桶2023/06/1670.6271.29-0.9%71.8669.960.9%73.67Brent期貨(主連合約)美元/桶2023/06/1675.6775.96-0.4%75.86-0.3%75.91-0.3%78.69-3.8%WTI期貨(次月合約)美元/桶2023/06/1670.8171.44-0.9%71.941.0%73.92-4.2%Brent期貨(次月合約)美元/桶2023/06/1675.6675.84-0.2%75.8-0.2%75.50.2%78.82-4.0%WTI期貨(第12月合約)美元/桶2023/06/1668.580.6%-0.8%67.631.4%72.61-5.6%Brent期貨(第12月合約)美元/桶2023/06/1674.3873.860.7%74.62-0.3%74.040.5%77.95-4.6%WTI現(xiàn)貨美元/桶2023/06/1670.6271.29-0.9%71.8669.960.9%73.67Brent現(xiàn)貨美元/桶2023/06/1675.4675.260.3%75.81-0.5%74.61.2%77.45-2.6%Dubai現(xiàn)貨美元/桶2023/06/1673.3175.9-3.4%75.06-2.3%74.973.99-0.9%Cinta現(xiàn)貨美元/桶2023/06/1669.8272.54-3.7%71.38-2.2%71.96-3.0%73.69-5.3%美國(guó)原油鉆井?dāng)?shù)口2023/06/16552556-0.7%575-4.0%593-6.9%618%美國(guó)商業(yè)原油庫(kù)存千桶2023/06/164671244592051.7%467624481180-2.9%42064611.0%Brent-WTI期貨主連合約價(jià)差美元/桶2023/06/165.054.67426.2%5.955.020.6%WTI主連合約-次月合約美元/桶2023/06/16--0.08---0.25-Brent主連合約-次月合約美元/桶2023/06/160.01-91.7%0.06-83.3%0.41-97.6%-WTI主連合約-第12月合約美元/桶2023/06/162.04-34.4%2.74-25.5%2.33%1.0692.5%Brent主連合約-第12月合約美元/桶2023/06/161.29-38.4%1.244.4%1.87-30.9%0.7474.6%三地原油簡(jiǎn)單10天平移均價(jià)美元/桶2023/06/1672.7473.40-0.9%73.36-0.8%75.47-3.6%78.20-7.0%煉油中國(guó)92#汽油(鎮(zhèn)海煉化)元/噸2023/06/1690689127-0.6%90210.5%9365-3.2%9466-4.2%中國(guó)0#柴油(鎮(zhèn)海煉化)元元/噸2023/06/1675357585-0.7%74900.6%7805-3.5%7895-4.6%美國(guó)87#汽油美分/加侖2023/06/16249250-0.3%2461.3%255-2.4%2432.3%美國(guó)柴油(紐約)美美分/加侖2023/06/162492404.0%2403.8%269-7.4%316-21.0%歐洲ARA柴油(CIF)美元/噸2023/06/167286954.6%6984.3%784888亞洲柴油(新加坡)美元/桶2023/06/168892-3.8%9097-9.3%13-21.6%92#汽油新加坡FOB美元/桶2023/06/168790-3.6%88-0.8%94-7.4%860.7%含硫0.05%柴油新加坡FOB美元/桶2023/06/169092-2.3%9198-8.4%07%航空煤油新加坡FOB美元/桶2023/06/168891-2.5%9096-7.9%09%新加坡石腦油FOB美美元/桶2023/06/1655.98-6.9%61.20-8.5%69.02%65.53%日本石腦油CFR美元/噸2023/06/16531568-6.5%588-9.6%647%630%請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-9-行業(yè)周報(bào)美分/加侖2023/06/165760-5.5%64%76-24.9%73-21.9%液化氣(華東)元/噸2023/06/1645504700-3.2%5000-9.0%5830-22.0%5630%丙烷(華東冷凍丙烷(華東冷凍CFR)美元/噸2023/06/16488499-2.2%530-7.9%575612-20.3%丁烷(華東冷凍CFR)美元/噸2023/06/16443489-9.4%525%575-23.0%627-29.3%正丁烷(山東正丁烷(山東)元/噸2023/06/16437840864750-7.8%5090%4894%基礎(chǔ)油(150SN,東北)元/噸2023/06/16900090000.0%90000.0%9200-2.2%9200-2.2%1120#溶劑油(華東)元/噸2023/06/1669007150-3.5%7600-9.2%7800%7250-4.8%混調(diào)高硫180CST(華東)元/噸2023/06/164750480048505180-8.3%5630%558#半煉石蠟(華南)元/噸2023/06/16870087000.0%85501.8%81506.7%85002.4%重交瀝青(華南)元/噸2023/06/16373037300.0%37050.7%3965-5.9%3955-5.7%改改性瀝青(華南)元/噸2023/06/16480048000.0%47750.5%5125-6.3%5075-5.4%國(guó)內(nèi)主營(yíng)汽油出廠價(jià)-原油價(jià)差美元/噸2023/06/16220.71227.44-3.0%12289.04-23.6%273.81%國(guó)內(nèi)主營(yíng)柴油出廠價(jià)-原油價(jià)差美元/噸2023/06/16133.02138.47-3.9%135.50194.28-31.5%178.45-25.5%國(guó)內(nèi)主營(yíng)成品油價(jià)-原油價(jià)差美元/噸2023/06/16110.50113.86-3.0%145.86-24.2%137.92%國(guó)際汽油市場(chǎng)價(jià)-原油價(jià)差美元/噸2023/06/16275.84276.55-0.3%263.934.5%294.52-6.3%234.3717.7%國(guó)際柴油市場(chǎng)價(jià)-原油價(jià)差美元/噸2023/06/16178.89148.0520.8%150.0319.2%236.32-24.3%-49.6%國(guó)際成品油市場(chǎng)價(jià)-WTI原油價(jià)差美元/噸2023/06/16157.64147.317.0%142.0711.0%182.84%199.62-21.0%國(guó)際成品油市場(chǎng)價(jià)-Brent原油價(jià)差美元/噸2023/06/16137.94129.096.9%126.47159.64%180.04-23.4%新加坡FOB汽油價(jià)-Brent原油價(jià)差美元/噸2023/06/16133.55157.78%137.94-3.2%187.54-28.8%105.8126.2%新加坡FOB柴油價(jià)-Brent原油價(jià)差美元/噸2023/06/1673.3786.01%78.21-6.2%-43.6%175.48-58.2%新新加坡FOB航空煤油價(jià)-Brent原油價(jià)差美元/噸2023/06/16104.77119.92%117.56%160.58-34.8%235.03-55.4%美灣WTI321價(jià)差美元/桶2023/06/1629.7028.045.9%26.7611.0%34.68%30.58-2.9%美灣Brent321價(jià)差美元/桶2023/06/1624.8224.0822.7630.03%25.94-4.3%亞洲Minas321價(jià)差美元/桶2023/06/1614.42-4.5%15.38-6.3%19.69-26.8%15.83-8.9%中東Dubai321價(jià)差美元/桶2023/06/1612.6413.4513.41-5.8%18.73-32.5%18.64-32.2%中國(guó)瀝青開工率%2023/06/1641.98-4.8%41.501.2%48.07%38.768.3%美國(guó)煉廠開工率%2023/06/1693.7095.80-2.2%92.001.8%88.605.8%79.6017.7%美國(guó)HenryHub期貨(主連合約)美元/MMBtu2023/06/162.552.358.5%2.5918.5%3.72-31.4%英國(guó)NBP現(xiàn)貨(遠(yuǎn)期合約)便士/Therm2023/06/16102.56753.0%6362.7%102.250.2%50-31.7%美國(guó)HenryHub現(xiàn)貨美元/MMBtu2023/06/162.052.1-2.4%2.3%2.083.77-45.6%美國(guó)N.Y.Hub現(xiàn)貨美元/MMBtu2023/06/161.361.401-2.9%4-2.9%1.84%2.586-47.4%美元/MMBtu2023/06/1613.3663.7%7.9168.9%12.526.7%17.39-23.2%德國(guó)GPL現(xiàn)貨美元/MMBtu2023/06/162322.651.5%22.641.6%22.754.0%氣TTF現(x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