ToExchangeRateFluctuations國際金融管理-山東

MeasuringExposureTo

ExchangeRateFluctuations10

ChapterSouth-Western/ThomsonLearning?2003Seec10.xlsforspreadsheetstoaccompanythischapter.ChapterObjectivesTodiscusstherelevanceofan MNC’sexposuretoexchangeraterisk;Toexplainhowtransactionexposurecanbemeasured;Toexplainhoweconomicexposurecanbemeasured;andToexplainhowtranslationexposurecanbemeasured.IsExchangeRateRiskRelevant?PurchasingPowerParityArgumentExchangeratemovementswillbematchedbypricemovements.PPPdoesnotnecessarilyhold.IsExchangeRateRiskRelevant?TheInvestorHedgeArgumentMNCshareholderscanhedgeagainstexchangeratefluctuationsontheirown.Theinvestorsmaynothavecompleteinformationoncorporateexposure.Theymaynothavethecapabilitiestocorrectlyinsulatetheirindividualexposuretoo.CurrencyDiversificationArgumentAnMNCthatiswelldiversifiedshouldnotbeaffectedbyexchangeratemovementsbecauseofoffsettingeffects.Thisisanaivepresumption.IsExchangeRateRiskRelevant?StakeholderDiversificationArgumentWelldiversifiedstakeholderswillbesomewhatinsulatedagainstlossesexperiencedbyanMNCduetoexchangeraterisk.MNCsmaybeaffectedinthesamewaybecauseofexchangeraterisk.IsExchangeRateRiskRelevant?ResponsefromMNCsManyMNCshaveattemptedtostabilizetheirearningswithhedgingstrategies,whichconfirmstheviewthatexchangerateriskisrelevant.IsExchangeRateRiskRelevant?OnlineApplication11/30/01ImpliedVols1

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6

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12

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YearEUR10.99.910.911.211.711.911.911.8JPY9.18.99.59.910.410.610.710.7CHF11.210.311.211.511.912.112.012.0GBP9.08.18.89.19.49.59.69.7CAD6.25.96.06.16.16.16.26.1AUD10.410.311.011.411.812.012.012.0GBPEUR8.16.97.47.78.48.78.68.5EURJPY9.39.09.710.310.811.311.411.4TypesofExposureAlthoughexchangeratescannotbeforecastedwithperfectaccuracy,firmscanatleastmeasuretheirexposuretoexchangeratefluctuations.Exposuretoexchangeratefluctuationscomesinthreeforms:TransactionexposureEconomicexposureTranslationexposureTransactionExposureThedegreetowhichthevalueoffuturecashtransactionscanbeaffectedbyexchangeratefluctuationsisreferredtoastransactionexposure（交易風險）.Tomeasuretransactionexposure:projectthenetamountofinflowsoroutflowsineachforeigncurrency,anddeterminetheoverallriskofexposuretothosecurrencies.MNCscanusuallyanticipateforeigncashflowsforanupcomingshort-termperiodwithreasonableaccuracy.AftertheconsolidatednetcurrencyflowsfortheentireMNChasbeendetermined,eachnetflowisconvertedintoeitherapointestimateorarangeofachosencurrency,soastostandardizetheexposureassessmentforeachcurrency.TransactionExposureAnMNC’soverallexposurecanbeassessedbyconsideringeachcurrencyposition（頭寸）togetherwiththecurrency’svariability（可變性）andthecorrelationsamongthecurrencies.Thestandarddeviationstatisticonhistoricaldataservesasonemeasureofcurrencyvariability.Notethatcurrencyvariabilitylevelsmaychangeovertime.TransactionExposureCurrency1981-19931994-1998Britishpound 0.0309 0.0148Canadiandollar 0.0100 0.0110Indianrupee 0.0219 0.0168Japaneseyen 0.0279 0.0298NewZealanddollar 0.0289 0.0190Swedishkrona 0.0287 0.0195Swissfranc 0.0330 0.0246Singaporedollar 0.0111 0.0174TransactionExposureStandardDeviationsofExchangeRateMovementsBasedonMonthlyDataThecorrelationsamongcurrencymovementscanbemeasuredbytheircorrelationcoefficients,whichindicatethedegreetowhichtwocurrenciesmoveinrelationtoeachother.

coefficientperfectpositivecorrelation 1.00nocorrelation 0.00perfectnegativecorrelation -1.00TransactionExposure￡Can$￥

NZ$Sk

SwFBritishpound(￡) 1.00Canadiandollar(Can$) .18 1.00Japaneseyen(￥) .45 .06 1.00NewZealanddollar(NZ$) .39 .20 .33 1.00Swedishkrona(Sk) .62 .16 .46 .33 1.00Swissfranc(SwF) .63 .12 .61 .37 .70 1.00TransactionExposureCorrelationsAmongExchangeRateMovementsThepointinconsideringcorrelationsistodetectpositionsthatcouldsomewhatoffseteachother.Forexample,ifcurrenciesXandYarehighlycorrelated,theexposuresofanetXinflowandanetYoutflowwilloffseteachothertoacertaindegree.Notethatthecorrrelationsamongcurrenciesmaychangeovertime.TransactionExposureMovementsofSelectedCurrencies

AgainsttheDollar$/100￥$/10Indianrupees$/Chineseyuan$/5Swedishkrona$/Canadian$$/Singapore$$perunitArelatedmethod,thevalue-at-risk(VAR)method,incorporatescurrencyvolatilityandcorrelationstodeterminethepotentialmaximumone-dayloss.Historicaldataisusedtodeterminethepotentialone-daydeclineinaparticularcurrency.Thisdeclineisthenappliedtothenetcashflowsinthatcurrency.TransactionExposureEconomicExposureEconomicexposurereferstothedegreetowhichafirm’spresentvalueoffuturecashflowscanbeinfluencedbyexchangeratefluctuations.Cashflowsthatdonotrequireconversionofcurrenciesdonotreflecttransactionexposure.Yet,thesecashflowsmayalsobeinfluencedsignificantlybyexchangeratemovements.EconomicExposureTransactionsthatInfluencetheFirm’sCashInflowsLocalCurrencyAppreciatesLocalCurrencyDepreciatesLocalsales(relativetoforeigncompetitioninlocalmarkets)Firm’sexportsdenominatedinlocalcurrencyFirm’sexportsdenominatedinforeigncurrencyInterestreceivedfromforeigninvestmentsDecreaseDecreaseDecreaseDecrease

IncreaseIncreaseIncreaseIncreaseImpactonTransactionsTransactionsreflectingtransactionexposure.EconomicExposureTransactionsthatInfluencetheFirm’sCashOutflowsLocalCurrencyAppreciatesLocalCurrencyDepreciatesImpactonTransactionsTransactionsreflectingtransactionexposure.Firm’simportedsuppliesdenominatedinlocalcurrencyFirm’simportedsuppliesdenominatedinforeigncurrencyInterestowedonforeignfundsborrowedNoChangeDecreaseDecrease

NoChangeIncreaseIncreaseEvenpurelydomesticfirmsmaybeaffectedbyeconomicexposureifthereisforeigncompetitionwithinthelocalmarkets.MNCsarelikelytobemuchmoreexposedtoexchangeratefluctuations.TheimpactvariesacrossMNCsaccordingtotheirindividualoperatingcharacteristicsandnetcurrencypositions.EconomicExposureOnemeasureofeconomicexposureinvolvesclassifyingthefirm’scashflowsintoincomestatementitems,andthenreviewinghowtheearningsforecastintheincomestatementchangesinresponsetoalternativeexchangeratescenarios.Ingeneral,firmswithmoreforeigncoststhanrevenueswillbeunfavorablyaffectedbystrongerforeigncurrencies.EconomicExposureAnothermethodofassessingafirm’seconomicexposureinvolvesapplyingregressionanalysistohistoricalcashflowandexchangeratedata.EconomicExposure

PCFt=a0+a1et+t PCFt = %changeininflation-adjustedcashflowsmeasuredinthefirm’shomecurrencyoverperiodt et = %changeinthecurrencyexchangerateoverperiodt

t = randomerrorterm（隨機誤差） a0 = intercept（截距） a1 = slopecoefficient（斜率相關(guān)系數(shù)）EconomicExposureTheregressionmodelmayberevisedtohandlemultiplecurrenciesbyincludingthemasadditionalindependentvariables,orbyusingacurrencyindex(composite).Bychangingthedependentvariable,theimpactofexchangeratesonthefirm’svalue(asmeasuredbyitsstockprice),earnings,exports,sales,etc.mayalsobeassessed.EconomicExposureTranslationExposureTheexposureoftheMNC’sconsolidatedfinancialstatementstoexchangeratefluctuationsisknownastranslationexposure.Inparticular,subsidiaryearningstranslatedintothereportingcurrencyontheconsolidatedincomestatementaresubjecttochangingexchangerates.TranslationExposureDoesTranslationExposureMatter?CashFlowPerspective-TranslatingfinancialstatementsforconsolidatedreportingpurposesdoesnotbyitselfaffectanMNC’scashflows.However,aweakforeigncurrencytodaymayresultinaforecastofaweakexchangerateatthetimesubsidiaryearningsareactuallyremitted.TranslationExposureStockPricePerspective-SinceanMNC’stranslationexposureaffectsitsconsolidatedearningsandmanyinvestorstendtouseearningswhenvaluingfirms,theMNC’svaluationmaybeaffected.DoesTranslationExposureMatter?Ingeneral,translationexposureisrelevantbecausesomeMNCsubsidiariesmaywanttoremittheirearningstotheirparentsnow,theprevailingexchangeratesmaybeusedtoforecasttheexpectedcashflowsthatwillresultfromfutureremittances,andconsolidatedearningsareusedbymanyinvestorstovalueMNCs.TranslationExposureAnMNC’sdegreeoftranslationexposureisdependenton:theproportionofitsbusinessconductedbyitsforeignsubsidiaries,thelocationsofitsforeignsubsidiaries,andtheaccountingmethodthatituses.TranslationExposureAccordingtoWorldResearchAdvisoryestimates,thetranslatedearningsofU.S.-basedMNCsinaggregatewerereducedby$20billioninthethirdquarterof1998alonesimplybecauseofthedepreciationofAsiancurrenciesagainstthedollar.In2000,theweaknessoftheeuroalsocausedseveralU.S.-basedMNCstoreportlowerearningsthanexpected.TranslationExposureOnlineApplicationImpactofExchangeRateExposure

onanMNC’sValue

E(CFj,t) = expectedcashflowsincurrencyjtobereceivedbytheU.S.parentattheendofperiodt E(ERj,t) = expectedexchangerateatwhichcurrencyjcanbeconvertedtodollarsattheendofperiodt k = weightedaveragecostofcapitaloftheparentTransactionExposureEconomicExposureIsExchangeRateRiskRelevant?PurchasingPowerParityArgumentTheInvestorHedgeArgumentCurrencyDiversificationArgumentStakeholderDiversificationArgumentResponsefromMNCsTypesofExposureTransaction,Economic,andTranslationExposuresChapterReviewChapterReviewTransactionExposureTransactionExposureto“Net”CashFlowsTransactionExposureBasedonCurrencyVariabilityTransactionExposureBasedonCurrencyCorrelationsTransactionExposureBasedonValue-at-RiskChapterReviewEconomicExposureEconomicExposuretoLocalCurrencyAppreciation&DepreciationEconomicExposureofDomesticFirms&MNCsMeasuringEconomicExposureSensitivityofEarnings&CashFlowstoExchangeRatesChapterReviewTranslationExposureDoesTranslationExposureMatter?CashFlowPerspectiveStockPricePerspectiveDeterminantsofTranslationExposureExamplesofTranslationExposureImpactofExchangeRateExposureonanMNC’sValue謝謝觀看/歡迎下載BYFAITHIMEANAVISIONOFGOODONECHERISHESANDTHEENTHUSIASMTHATPUSHESONETOSEEKITSFULFILLMENTREGARDLESSOFOBSTACLES.BYFAITHIBYFAITH一本萬利工程1、背景驅(qū)動2、盈利策略3、選菜試菜4、價值創(chuàng)造5、完美呈現(xiàn)6、成功面試7、持續(xù)改造（一）、一本萬利工程的背景驅(qū)動

1、什么是一本萬利

2、餐飲時代的變遷菜單經(jīng)驗的指導方針運營市場定位的體現(xiàn)經(jīng)營水平的體現(xiàn)體現(xiàn)餐廳的特色與水準溝通的工具餐廳對顧客的承諾菜單承諾的六大表現(xiàn)1、名字的承諾2、質(zhì)量的承諾3、價格的承諾4、規(guī)格標準的承諾5、外文翻譯的準確6、保證供應(yīng)的承諾

1、顧客滿意度餐廳價值、價格、合理感、愉快感、安心感、美味感、便利感、滿足感、有價值感、喜悅感、特別感2-2、初期投資餐廳面積、保證金、設(shè)備投資、店鋪裝潢、器具用品投資、制服選定、菜單制作2-1、開業(yè)準備廚具、供應(yīng)商選定、設(shè)計、用品選定、餐廳配置、員工訓練、餐廳氣氛、促銷方式3、經(jīng)營數(shù)據(jù)營業(yè)額、客流量、成本率、人均消費、顧客回頭率、出品速度、人事費用菜單內(nèi)容決定決定相關(guān)相關(guān)決定決定決定決定以菜單為導向的硬件投資

1、餐廳的裝修風格2、硬件設(shè)施服務(wù)操作3、餐廳動線4、餐具與家俬5、廚房布局6、廚房設(shè)備菜單設(shè)計正果1、能誘導顧客購買你想讓他買的餐點2、能迅速傳達餐廳要表達的東西3、雙贏：顧客喜歡、餐廳好賣餐廳時代的變遷食物時代硬體時代軟體時代心體時代食物食品饑食飽食品質(zhì)挑食品味品食品德懼食體驗人們正在追尋更多的感受，更多的意義更多的體驗，更多的幸福（二）盈利策略1、組建工程團隊2、確定核心價值3、確定盈利目標4、確定客單價5、設(shè)計盈利策略6、確定核心產(chǎn)品誰來設(shè)計菜單？產(chǎn)品=做得出來的物品商品=賣得出去的物品商家=產(chǎn)品具備商品附加值物（什么產(chǎn)品）+事（滿足顧客何種需求）從物到事從食物到餐飲從吃什么到為什么吃產(chǎn)品本身決定一本，產(chǎn)品附加值決定萬利從生理到心理從物質(zhì)到精神從概念到五覺體驗創(chuàng)造產(chǎn)品的五覺附加值體驗何來

一家企業(yè)以服務(wù)為舞臺以商品為道具，讓消費者完全投入的時候，體驗就出現(xiàn)了PART01物=你的企業(yè)賣什么產(chǎn)品+事=能滿足顧客何種需求？確定核心價值理念核心價值理念1、賣什么樣的菜2、賣什么樣的氛圍？3、如何接待顧客？賣給誰？賣什么事？賣什么價？企業(yè)目標的設(shè)定1、理論導向的目標設(shè)定2、預算3、制定利潤目標費用營業(yè)額虧損區(qū)利潤區(qū)臨界點變動費用總費用營業(yè)額曲線費用線X型損益圖利潤導向的目標設(shè)定確定目標設(shè)定營業(yè)收入=固定成本+目標利潤1-變動成本率-營業(yè)稅率例：A餐廳每月固定成本40萬，變動成本50%，營業(yè)稅率5.5%，目標利率每月8萬，問A餐廳的月營業(yè)收入：月營收入=（40+8）÷（1-50%-5.5%）=48÷0.445=108萬測算損益平衡點保本線=固定成本1-變動成本率-營業(yè)稅率例：A餐廳保本線=40÷（1-50%-5.5%）

=40÷0.445

=90萬定價的三重意義2、向競爭對手發(fā)出的信息和信號1、是利潤最大化和最重要的決定因素3、價格本事是價值的體現(xiàn)定價由此開始1、評估產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)的質(zhì)量2、尋求顧客價值與平衡點3、以價值定義市場確定客單價盈利占比策略

占比策略內(nèi)部策略銷售占比占比策略內(nèi)部策略10%40%10%20%20%（三）、選菜試菜1、ABC產(chǎn)品分析2、產(chǎn)品的確定（食材、口味、烹調(diào)、餐飲）3、成本的確定ABC分析策略毛利率營業(yè)額CBACABBACCCAA營業(yè)額C毛利A優(yōu)化、提升增加銷售雙A雙贏ABC顧客商品漲價保留虧本商品刪營業(yè)額A毛利C顧客超額、成本過高有意義的保留無意義的刪除雙C雙輸菜單內(nèi)容選擇的標準因素成本設(shè)備廚師技術(shù)操作空間菜系風格吻合度品質(zhì)可控度原料供應(yīng)顧客喜好菜單協(xié)議度（銷售目標、顏色、口味、造型、營養(yǎng)等）產(chǎn)品類別確定的四個方面1、按食材確定比例2、按口味確定比例3、按烹飪確定比例4、按餐飲確定比例

（無酒精飲品、含酒精飲品比例）框架依據(jù)操作依據(jù)目標依據(jù)成本依據(jù)試口味成本操作第一次試菜的內(nèi)容精確的成本核算—五個關(guān)鍵詞1、凈料率（一料一控、一料多檔）2、調(diào)味料成本（單件產(chǎn)品、批量產(chǎn)品）3、燃料成本4、統(tǒng)一計量單位5、標準食譜成本卡試口味餐具造型色彩第二次試菜的內(nèi)容四料構(gòu)成表1、符合思想審定2、符合目標審定3、符合定位審定4、符合框架審定四平構(gòu)成表(四)、創(chuàng)造價值1、定價策略的確定2、提升雙A核心產(chǎn)品的附加值3、增加更多的顧客選擇性顧客會記住的價格最低價人均消費熱門暢銷品商品較多的價格帶最高價產(chǎn)品價格和觀念價值永遠是不一樣的，體驗經(jīng)濟時代出售的不是產(chǎn)品價格，而是觀念定價與確定價格的區(qū)別確定價格產(chǎn)品、服務(wù)主導思路確定一個易于銷售的價格由企業(yè)根據(jù)成本以及和其他企業(yè)的比較確定定價基于顧客的價值私立評估價值、確定等級在顧客和企業(yè)的來往過程中確定企業(yè)定價三大策略1、薄利多銷策略2、相對穩(wěn)定價格策略3、高價位價格策略提升產(chǎn)品附加值的“十大絕招”三好七增名字好賣相故事服務(wù)選擇文案時間體驗健康推廣感覺“附加值”提升產(chǎn)品附加值的