UNCATD：2023年非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展報(bào)告：非洲融入技術(shù)密集型全球供應(yīng)鏈的潛力（概述）

EDAR2023

UNITEDNATIONSCONFERENCEONTRADEANDDEVELOPMENT

ThePotentialofAfricato

CaptureTechnology-IntensiveGlobalSupplyChains

OVERVIEW

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EconomicDevelopment

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UNCTAD/ALDC/AFRICA/2023(Overview)

ThePotentialofAfricatoCaptureTechnology-IntensiveGlobalSupplyChains

Globalsupplychains:

Turningdisruptionintoopportunity

TheEconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2023:ThePotentialofAfricatoCaptureTechnology-intensiveGlobalSupplyChainsprovidesauniqueinsightintothepotentialforincreasedintegrationintothesupplychainsinAfricabybringingtogetherknowledgeonhowAfricacanstrengthensupplychaindiversificationinhigh-knowledge-andtechnology-intensivesectors.

Inrecentyears,globalsupplychainshavecomeunderimmensepressureasaresultofunprecedentedtradeturbulence,economicuncertainty,geopoliticaleventsandnaturaldisasters.Consequently,thesesupplychainswereseverelydisrupted.Thishasledkeyplayers,suchastheseriesofmanufacturers,distributors,consignersandsooninvolvedinproducinggoodsofaparticularkindandbringingthemtomarket,tore-examinewaystostrengthensupplychainresilience.AlthoughtheintegrationofAfricaneconomiesintosupplychainsisrelativelylowcomparedwithotherregions,disruptionstosupplychainoperationshaveamorethanproportionateadverseimpactontheireconomies.

Keyplayersandstakeholdersarelookingtostrengthentheresilienceofexistingsupplychainsbydiversifyingtheirsources.ThismaycreateanopportunityforAfricaneconomiestoheightentheirinvolvementinglobalsupplychains.Forinstance,thesemiconductorsupplychain,whichinvolveshundredsofsuppliersandanintricateprocessofmanufacturingmicrochipsandothercriticalcomponentsintheelectronicsandautomotiveindustries,wasnegativelyaffectedduringthe2008–2009globalfinancialandeconomiccrisis,aswellastherecentcoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)pandemic.Otherindustriesthatcameundersupplychainpressureduringpreviousglobalshocksandenvironmentaldisasters,withassociateddifficultiesintradeandinvestment,willbethefocusofthisreport.Theseincludetheautomotive,electronics,renewableenergyandpharmaceuticalproductandmedicaldeviceindustries,whicharestrategic,emergingindustriesthatrequiretheuseofcriticalmineralsandhigh-technologymetalsformanufacturingandservices.

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EconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2023

Africa,whichboastsanabundantsupplyofrawmaterialswithutilityintheenergy,automotiveandelectronicssectors,couldprovideanopportunityforthediversificationandresilienceofglobalsupplychainsbyofferinganewregionalmarketforbusinessesandindustriesintheirquesttofurtherexpandtheirsupplychainrelationships.TheboxbelowprovidesadefinitionofsupplychaindiversificationandwhatitentailsforAfricancountries.

Asmultinationalcompaniesseektoextendtheirsupplychainsintodiverseregions,Africancountriescouldbecomepotentialsourcesofhigh-technologymineralresourcesalongshorterandsimplersupplychains,withtheaddedeffectofcontributingtothestabledevelopmentofemergingindustriesonthecontinent.Moreequalinvestor–Stateagreements,orhostgovernmentagreements,especiallyforthecriticalmineralsandmetalsthatareusedinhigh-technologyproductsandsupplychains,willbenecessarytodevelopdomesticindustriessuccessfullyandimprovethecapabilityoflocalfirmstodesign,procureormanufacturenecessarypartsandcomponentsinhigh-technology-intensivesupplychains.

TheunequaltermsofminingcontractsandexplorationlicenceshasledmanyGovernmentsinAfricatoreviewtheirmininglawsandregulationstoharnessbusinessopportunitiesfordomesticenterprisesandbetterreapthebenefitsofcapital-intensivelarge-scaleminingforinclusiveandsustaineddevelopmentintheircountries.Todate,17Africancountrieshavelocalcontentregulationsinplace,namelyAngola,Botswana,BurkinaFaso,Cameroon,C?ted’Ivoire,theDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,Ghana,Guinea,Mali,Mozambique,Namibia,theNiger,SierraLeone,SouthAfrica,theUnitedRepublicofTanzania,ZambiaandZimbabwe.InZambia,forexample,foreignsuppliersaccountforabout96percentofgoodsandservicessuppliedtomines,whereasdomesticsupplierscontributeabout4percent,mainlyinservices(catering,securityandofficemaintenance).Thisisacasethatillustratestheimportanceofsoundlocalcontentpoliciesindevelopinglocalsupplychainsandfacilitatingthecreationofbackwardlinkagesintheminingsector,forexample,generatingvalueadditionindomesticsupplysectors,creatinglocalemploymentopportunitiesortransferringtechnology.

Undersuchascenario,thepotentialupgradingofindustrialization,combinedwiththerapidwealthcreationoftherisingmiddleclassinAfrica,willstarttoofferopportunitiestodeveloplocalsupplierbases,broadenlocalproductionandincreasetheAfricanworkforceandconsumermarket.AstheinterestofpotentialinvestorsandglobalsupplierstodeepentheirfootprintacrosstheAfricancontinentiscarvedout,incentivestoinvestinandbuildpartnershipwithlocalsuppliersandcustomerswillbekey.

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Nonetheless,venturingintoAfricaasasupplychaindestinationwillrequireenormousinvestmentinadequateinfrastructure,aswellastheavailabilityofhumancapitalandtechnology.InmanyAfricancountries,thestateofinfrastructuredevelopment–transport,warehouseandotherfacilities–whichisnotyetatastandardandqualitycomparabletootherdevelopingandemergingcountries,isoneofthemainbarrierstologisticsandsupplychainsonthecontinent.However,nationalandregionalinitiativestoscaleupfinancingforinfrastructuredevelopmentandimprovelogisticsperformanceinAfrica,suchastheAfricanUnionProgrammeforInfrastructureDevelopmentinAfrica,arepromisingandcanstrategicallyenhancetheintegrationofAfricaneconomiesintoregionalandglobalsupplychains.

InspiteofthecurrentlowlevelsoftechnologyandhumancapitalinmanypartsofAfrica,whichcanbeahindrancewhengainsinproductivityandvalueaddedareconsidereddecisiveinfurtheringsupplychainsacrossthecontinent,opportunitiesareemergingthatcanovercometheselingeringriskfactors.TheyoungandgrowingpopulationofAfrica,projectedtoreach2.5billionby2050–aquarteroftheworld’spopulation–isembracingtechnologyandhasmanyadvantagesthatcanenticefirmsseekingtoexpandtheirsupplierandconsumerrelationshipsinAfrica.Theadvancementoftechnologyandinnovationonthecontinentisbeingincreasinglydrivenbyyoungentrepreneurs.TheGlobalSystemforMobileAssociationreported618activetechnologyhubsinAfricain2019,comparedwith442suchhubsbetween2016and2018.Thisgrowingtechnologyecosystemwillleveragetheinnovationandentrepreneurialmindsetandskillsthatwilleventuallyattractinvestorsandtechnology-basedsupplychainparticipatingcompanies.ByrelocatingsomeoftheirsupplychainstoAfricaorbyenteringintoapartnershipwithlocalsuppliers,thesecompanieswillthencontributetoemploymentcreation,especiallyindigital-andhigh-technology-intensiveindustriesand,hence,toincomegrowth.Astechnology-intensiveindustriestendtoofferhigherwagesandcanhaveapositivejob-multipliereffect,thepotentialofgeneratingmoreemploymentinthosesectorswillhaveundeniablebenefitsfortheworkforceandfostersustainabledevelopmentinAfrica.IntheUnitedStatesofAmerica,forexample,workersinhigh-technologyindustriesearnonaverage101.8percentmorethanworkersinnon-high-technologyindustries.FacilitatingaconduciveenvironmentforfirmsinthoseindustriestoestablishorbuildnewsupplierrelationshipsinAfricancountriescanhelpraisewagesinAfrica,whicharesetataminimumof$220permonth,comparedwithanaverageof$668intheAmericas.

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Understandingsupplychaindiversification

InanalysingsupplychainsandthepotentialforeconomiesinAfricatointegrateintosupplychains,thereportmakesacleardistinctionbetweensupplychainsandvaluechains.Forthepurposeofthereport,theuseofthetermsupplychainsisdefinedasfollows:thesystemandresourcesrequiredtomoveagoodorservicefromasuppliertoacustomer.Incomparison,thevaluechainconceptbuildsonthistoconsiderthewayvalueisaddedalongthechain,bothtothegoodorserviceandtheactorsinvolved.Thereportfurtheroutlinesthefollowingfundamentalstepsofasupplychain,whichareproductdevelopment,sourcingprocurement,manufacturing,logistics,distributionandcustomerservice.

Thus,supplychaindiversificationtakesintoaccounttwoprincipalfactors,thatis,diversificationofthedirectsupplierbaseanddiversificationofthecustomerbase.Supplychaindiversificationisimperativetoreinforcesupplychainresilience.Thereare,therefore,plentifulopportunitiesforAfricatobenefitfromsupplychaindiversificationthroughintegrationintoboththesupplierandcustomerbases.ThepotentialbenefitsoftheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeAreathroughincreasedtradingfacilitatedbytheremovaloftariffandnon-tariffbarriers,ispoisedtoofferanadvantageforsupplychaindiversificationinAfrica.

Nonetheless,forAfricaneconomiestobenefitfromsupplychaindiversification,itisimportanttomanageexistingsupplychainvulnerabilitieseffectively.Forinstance,itwouldbeurgenttoimplementpoliciestomitigatepoorinfrastructure(transport,warehouseandotherfacilities),informality,weakinstitutionsandregulations,fragmentedmarkets,limitedsourcesofcapital,lowlevelsoftechnologyandpoliticalrisks.

Source:UNCTAD.

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Newopportunitiesforglobalsupplychaindiversityandsustainability:ThecomparativeadvantageofAfrica

TherecentcriseshaverevealedthatundiversifiedeconomiesinAfricaremainvulnerable.Forinstance,thelingeringeffectsoftheCOVID-19crisis,compoundedbyinflationaryeffectsowinginparttothewarinUkraine,saweconomicgrowthinAfricadeclineby0.8percentagepoints,from4.5percentin2021to3.7percentin2022.Integrationintosupplychains,andhencethediversificationofAfricaneconomies,wouldcreateaneconomywithbetterresiliencetoshocks.ThecomparativeadvantageofAfricaforintegrationintoglobalsupplychainscouldbeanalysedthroughfactorsinherenttothesupplychain,thatis,procurement,productionanddistribution,withthethirdfactorincludingconsumerdemand.

Procurement

Astheglobaleconomyadaptstoclimatechange,dynamicproductionprocesseswillrequirealternativeinputs,andlow-carbontechnologiesareexpectedtoflourish.Consequently,therewillbeariseinthedemandforspecificmetalswithutilityinthelow-carbontransitionandgreenmobility,forinstance,aluminium,cobalt,copper,lithiumandmanganese.Giventheabundanceoftheseminerals,inparticularkeymetalsrequiredforthelow-carbontransition,thecontinentcanrepositionitselfasasupplierofrawmaterialsforglobalsupplychains.Infact,48.1percentofglobalcobaltreservesand47.6percentofglobalmanganesereservesarelocatedinAfrica.Othermetalsandmineralsthatareimportantforthelow-carbontransitionarealsoproducedinAfrica:chromium,lithium,naturalgraphite,nickel,niobium,rareearthmetals,silver,telluriumandtitanium.

Inaddition,Africancountriesneednotonlysupplyrawmaterialsforthelow-carbontransition.Theycanalsostrengthenvaluechainsbyensuringthatrawmaterialsareconvertedintointermediateproductswithinthecontinent.Forinstance,in2022,theDemocraticRepublicoftheCongohadthelargestproductionofcopperinAfrica,1.8milliontons.Butbeyondexplorationandextraction,thecountryisapotentialdestinationforrefiningmetalproducts,whichwouldlowerthecostsoftransportingbulky,low-valueinitialextracts.

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Production

ThecostofproductionisanimportantfactorinthediscussionoftheintegrationofAfricaintosupplychains,andofthepossibilityforfirmstomoveentireproductionprocessestotheregion.Forexample,sincedistanceplaysanimportantroleincoststhroughtransportationandotherdistributioninfrastructure,thecostofproductionessentiallymustcompensatefordistance,andviceversa.Thus,asurveyofcurrentfactorinputsintotheproductionprocessprovidesaclearpictureofwhereAfricancountriesstand,whatgapsexistandwhatneedstobedonetobridgethosegaps.

Thereportanalysesfactorsofproduction(capital,labour,humancapitalandtotalfactorproductivity)andfindsthatcapitalhasbeenakeydriverofoutputgrowthsince2003.Nextcomeslabour,followedbyhumancapital,whosecontributionhasremainedlargelyunchanged.Bycontrast,thecontributionoftotalfactorproductivitytooutputgrowthduringthattimehasbeendismal,andinsomecaseshasdeclined,signallingagapinproductivityanduseoftechnology.Consequently,whilelabourisabundant,Africancountriesshouldimplementpoliciesthatensureincreasedskillsandtheabilitytoinnovateandusetechnologyintheproductionprocess,aswellasintheoverallsupplychainsystem,whichcanalsohaveapositiveeffectonwagesandincome.Inaddition,aproductivityanalysiscarriedoutinthereportshowsthatareallocationofresourcesbetweenandwithinsectorshasnotalwaysbeenefficientfortheAfricancountriesinthesample.Thus,policiesthatencourageefficientallocationoffactorinputsshouldbeimplemented.

Distribution

Withinthesupplychain,distributionisperhapsthemostprolificand,therefore,dynamicfeature.Thelogisticsaspectofdistributionisalsoanimportantpartofprocurementandproduction.In2018,forexample,performanceofAfricancountrieswasconsiderablylower(2.46)thantheglobalaverage(2.87),asmeasuredbytheWorldBanklogisticsperformanceindexonascaleofonetofive,withonebeingthelowest,andfive,thehighest.Nonetheless,whencomparedwithpastperformance,improvementhasbeenmarginal.Inaddition,thebestperformingcategoriesweretimeliness,andtrackingandtracing,bothanindicationofincreasedinvestmentinsoftinfrastructure,suchastheInternetandmobiletelephones.Whileitisimportanttoinvestininformationandcommunicationstechnologyinfrastructure,itisimperativethatAfricancountriesmaintaininvestmentsinhardinfrastructurethatreducethecostoflogisticsinthesupplychain.

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Hardinfrastructure,suchasports,roadsandrail,havetendedtolagbehind.Forinstance,investmentinAfricanportsisoftenmadeonanas-needs-basis,whichleadstooperationalinefficiencyattheports.Therearelessthan70operationalports,manyofwhicharepoorlyequippedanduneconomical,withdelaystwoorthreetimesabovetheglobalaverage.ItisthereforeadvisablethatAfricancountriesencourageinvestmentsinhardinfrastructure,includingfromtheprivatesector,toimproveefficiencyandcapacitythatwouldensurethatmorevalueisgainedbytradingandparticipatinginsupplychainsinAfrica.

Tradepoliciesandincentives

Africancountriesareengagedinvarioustradeagreementsaimedatstrengtheningtradeandenhancingproductivityanddiversification.TheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeAreahasthepotentialtomeetthesegoalsandtofostercontinentalandregionalintegration,stimulateintra-Africantradeandharmonizetheheterogeneityoftraderulesacrossregionaleconomiccommunitiesandunderregionaltradeagreements.InadditiontotheAgreementEstablishingtheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea,Africancountrieshavejoinedpreferentialtradeagreementswithotherregionsorcountries.TheAfricanGrowthandOpportunityAct,establishedbytheUnitedStates,issuchanagreement,anditcangenerateacomplexdynamicgainbyfacilitatingopportunitiesfornewfactorsofproduction,includingcapital.OtherpreferentialschemesandeconomiccooperationpartnershipsinthecontextofSouth–Southcooperation,whicharecontributingtothegrowthoflocalindustryandimprovingintra-Africantrade,canalsoboostglobalsupplychains.OnesuchcooperationinitiativeistheSilkRoadEconomicBeltand21stCenturyMaritimeSilkRoad,alsoknownastheBeltandRoadInitiative,whichfacilitatesaccesstofinancingforpublicandregionalinfrastructuredevelopmentprojectsinAfricaandcontributestoimprovingskills,innovationandtechnologythroughitsvarioustrainingandtransferoftechnologyprogrammes.

Opportunitiesforgreeningsupplychains

Withinproductionanddistributionprocesses,Africaoffersseveralopportunitiesforgreeningsupplychainsandshrinkingthecarbonfootprintofcompanies.Forinstance,thegreenhydrogenpotentialofAfricaopensupopportunitiesfordecarbonizingsupplychains,whichisbecomingarequirementforcompaniestocurbtheirgreenhousegasemissions.Acompany’semissionscanbesignificantlyimprovedbychoosingsuppliers

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oflower-carbonmaterialsorrelocatingitsenergy-intensiveindustries,suchassteelandchemicalindustries,tolow-costcountriesforrenewableandgreenhydrogenpower.OtheradvantagesofsupplychainexpansionintoAfricaincludeopportunitiestotapintoitsrenewableenergypotential,whichcanlowerproductioncostsandlessenrelianceonfuel-basedenergy.Asoneoftheworld’slargestuntappedsourcesofsolarenergy,Africacan,forexample,lendadvantagesinthesolarpowersupplychain,whichcanpromotethedevelopmentofrenewableenergytechnologiesonthecontinentandfacilitatetheintegrationofAfricaneconomiesintoglobalsupplychains.

High-technology-intensivesupplychainsand

industries:ResettingAfricanmarketsandbusinessesformobilityandscale

Whilesupplychainshavecomeunderconsiderablestrainowingtotheaforementionedcrises,someindustriesaremoreexposedtoglobalshocksthanothersandarethusincreasinglyrelevantforgeographicdiversification.ThissectionfocusesontheintegrationofAfricaintomedium-andhigh-technology-intensivesupplychainsbytakingadvantageofitsnaturalendowments,withsuchglobalsupplychainintegrationlikelytopavewayfortheregion’sindustrializationandsustainabledevelopment.Emphasisisplacedontheautomotive,electronics,renewableenergytechnologyandmedicaldeviceindustriesandsupplychains,asthesearesectorsthatcanbevulnerabletoglobalshocks(forexample,theCOVID-19pandemic,tradedisputesandgeophysicalevents)andwhichrequiremorediversifiedgeographicfootprintstoensureundisruptedaccesstosuppliersandbuyers.Africacanprovidesuchalternativeaccesstoinputsandcomponentsforthesetechnology-intensivesupplychains.

AutomotiveIndustry

Theautomotiveindustryisparticularlyvulnerabletosupplychaindisruptions,aswitnessedduringtheCOVID-19crisis.Whiletheregistrationofnewvehiclesremainslow,withover80percentofvehicleregistrationspertainingtousedvehicles,Africahasthepotentialtoraiseitsvehicledemandnearlytenfoldby2030.Nonetheless,newvehicleproductionremainslow,atabout1.2percentoftheglobaltotal.VehicleproductionisdominatedbySouthAfrica,Morocco,AlgeriaandEgyptinthatorder,whileotherAfricancountrieshaverelativelysmallassemblyplantswithminimalvalueaddition

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(Angola,Ethiopia,Ghana,Kenya,Lesotho,MozambiqueandNamibia).InMorocco,increasedvehicleproductionhasbeenunderpinnedbyinvestmentininfrastructure,proximitytotheEuropeanmarketandpoliciesgearedtowardsstrengtheningthevehiclemanufacturingsector.

AsupplychainmappingapproachshowsthatwhileAfricancountriesremainlargelydependentontheimportofautomotivepartsandcomponentsfromoutsidethecontinent,thereisroomforgreaterregionalsupplychainintegration.Inparticular,themanufactureofnon-specificpartsandcomponents(so-calledtier2)providesthemostviableproductionoptionsformostAfricancountries.Theyarelesstechnologyandknowledgeintensivethantier1suppliers(manufactureandsupplymodulesandsystemsreadyforvehicleassembly),andoftenrepresentthenextprocessingstagethatrequiresabundantmetalsasinputsdemandedbyarangeofmanufacturingsectors.Hencetheseareessentialcomponentsforachievingsupplychaindiversification.Theidentificationoffeasibleexportdiversificationopportunitiesthatcouldfillrecentgapsintheregionalsupplychainsuggeststhatcountrieswithalreadyexistingcapabilitiescantakeontheproductionoflarger,morecomplexautomotivepartsandcomponents.Inaddition,clusteredproductioninspecialeconomiczonescouldstrengtheneconomiesofscaleandbenefitfromjointinfrastructureandfinancing.

Mobiletelephones

Theelectronicsindustry,especiallythemobiletelephonesupplychaincancatchtheeyeofmanypotentialinvestorsandcompaniesthatarepursuingthediversificationoftheirsupplychainsandexploringAfricaasaneworalternativedestination.MostofthemineralsandmetalsthatgointotheproductionofsmartphonescanbesourcedwithinAfricancountries.Forinstance,thecontinenthaslargereservesofcobalt,copper,graphite,lithium,manganeseandnickel,whichareusedintheproductionoftelephonebatteries,circuitboardsandothercomponents.Theabundanceoftheseresourcesalsoprovidesvastopportunityforstrengtheningregionalsupplychainsinmobilephoneproductionfromprecursorproduction.Theproductionofcathodeprecursors(nickel-manganese-cobaltoxides),amainingredientinthemanufactureofbatterycomponents,cancontributetohighervaluecaptureinthebatteryindustryandintegrationintotheelectronicsandmobiletelephonesupplychain.Itisestimatedthatbuildinga10,000-tonprecursorfacilityintheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,forinstance,couldcost$39million,whichisthreetimeslessthanwhatitwouldcostforasimilarplantinacountrywithouttherequirednaturalresourcesorproximitytocountrieswherethosemetals

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canbesourced.Inadditiontoitslargereservesofcobalt,representingabout70percentofglobalsupply,theDemocraticRepublicoftheCongocoulddevelopaprecursorplantbyprocuringnickelfromMadagascarandshippingitthroughMozambiqueortheUnitedRepublicofTanzaniaorprocuringadditionalmanganesefromneighbouringcountryGabon.

TheseregionalprocurementandproductionopportunitieswillbefacilitatedundertheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeAreaandstrengthenedbyincreasedinfrastructureinvestment.SeveralAfricancompanies,suchastheMaraGroupinRwanda,OnyxinSouthAfricaandVMKintheRepublicoftheCongo,haveemergedintheprecursordevelopmentmarket,inadditiontoTranssion,theleadingChinesemobilemanufacturerinAfrica.DevelopingmobiletelephonesupplychaincapacitiesinAfricacanunlockfurtherpotentialintheelectronicssupplychainandopenupmarketopportunitiestowardstheproductionoftablets,laptopsandhigh-performanceservers,anddatastoragesolutions.ThesearekeygoodsandservicesthatarepredictedtobeinincreasingdemandbythegrowingconsumermarketinAfrica,includingelectroniccommerceandothertechnology-basedservices.

Solarpanels

Solarpanelmoduleassemblyisalucrativeareaforinvestment,giventhehighgrowthoftherenewableenergysectoronthecontinent.Between2000and2020,thelevelofrenewablesinvestmentinAfricaroseatanannualaveragerateof96percent,owingtotheregion’svastsolarenergypotential.Yet,thecontinentcontinuestosufferfromsignificantinvestmentgaps,receivingabout2percentofglobalinvestmentsinrenewableenergy.Theproductionofsolarphotovoltaicpanelsislimited,withsomeopportunitiesmaterializinginEgypt,MoroccoandSouthAfrica.Despitetherapidgrowthofsolarhomesystems,systemsinAfricaaretinycomparedwiththeircounterpartsindevelopedcountriesandrequirebatteriesandchargecontrollerstoensurestableoutput.Assemblyofthesolarfield,whichmustbeperformedatthesite,offerssignificantlocalmanufacturingpotential.Asmanycomponentinputs,suchasballjoints,bearingsandcables,areusedbyotherindustries,thesepartsofferopportunitiesforalreadyestablishedcompaniestoachievelateraldiversificationofcustomers.NotallcountriesinAfricamightbeabletoproducesolarpanelsfortheirmarketbuttheadditionalemploymentgenerationthroughprojectdevelopmentandadvisoryservices,installationandrepairservicescanbesubstantialandshouldattractgreater