大二上課件國際金融第一講

PAGEPAGE244 易量：1992年1萬億美元，2007年3

“Globalizationiswhena?nanciallystrappedsubprimemortgageholderinStocktonsuddenlydefaults,dumpshousekeysinmailbox,andthenvanishes–andthe$300,000defaultshowsuponthebalancesheetofaside-streetbankinShanghai,Singapore,TokyoorLondonLawrenceG.McDonaldandPatrickRobinson,AColossalFailureofCommonSense:TheInsideStoryoftheCollapseofLehmanBrothers,CrownBusiness,page161.controversycontroversyImportsofautomobiletheriseinU.S.importsofautomobiletiresfromChina2004-2008.Withrisingimports,U.S.tireproductiondecreasedandsomeU.S.tireworkerslosttheirjobs.Theunionfiledapetitionseekingtemporaryimportprotection,andtheinvestigationconcludedthatthesurgeoftireimportsfromChinawasharmingtheU.S.industry.PresidentObamahadthefinaldecisionaboutwhattodo.Herethecontroversygetsmoreinteresting.ThePresidentcouldusethelawtoraisetariffsagainsttireimportsfromChina,butshouldhe?Keythemesforthecourseariseinthiscase.Helpingsomedomesticgroups(U.S.tiremakersandworkers)harmsotherdomesticgroups(U.S.tirebuyers).And,thebasicconclusionisthattheloserslosemorethanthewinnerswin.PresidentObamadidimposehighertariffs,andmostofthepredictedeffectsdidseemtoHowever,thedeclineintireimportsfromChinaledlessanincreaseindomesticproductionandemploymentandmoretoanincreaseintireimportsfromothercountries.And,itappearsthattheChinesegovernmentretaliatedagainstU.S.exportsofchickenandautopartstoChina.Overall,theUnitedStatesandChinalostsomeofthemutualgainsfrominternationaltrade.controversycontroversyChina’sFromthemid-1990sto2005,theChinesegovernmentmaintaineda?xedexchangerateoftheyuantotheU.S.dollar.AsChina’stradesurplusincreasedandtheChinesegovernmentcontinuallyhadtoentertheforeignexchangemarkettobuydollarsandsellyuantokeeptheexchangeratesteady,theUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionincreasinglycomplainedaboutthe?xedrate.In2005theChinesegovernmentbegantoallowgradualincreasesintheexchange-ratevalueoftheyuan.Inmid-2008,inresponsetotheworseningglobalcrisis,theChinesegovernmentrevertedtoa?xedexchangerate.Then,astheChineseeconomyresumeditsrapidgrowthandChina’sgovernmentcontinuedtoamassinternationalreservesthroughitsinterventiontodefendthe?xedexchangerate,foreignpressuresreemerged.Inmid-2010China’sgovernmentagainbegantoallowgradualappreciationoftheyuan.InthecontroversyoverChina’sexchangeratepolicy,wecanseemanyoftheissuesthatwewillexamineinthefollowingchapters，includingthemeasurementandmeaningofacountry’sbalanceofpayments(includingitstradebalance),governmentpoliciestowardtheforeignexchangemarketandhowagovernmentdefendsa?xedexchangerateagainstmarketpressurefortheexchangeratevaluetochange,foreign?nancialinvestmentsandtheroleofcurrencypoliticalpressuresthatcanplacelimitsonhowlongacountrywitha?xedexchangeratehowexchangeratesaffectnotonlyacountry’stradebalance,butalsoitsnationalmacroeconomicperformance(includingproduction,employment,andin?ation).controversycontroversyGlobal?nancialItbeganintheUnitedStates,whichhadexperiencedacreditboomandabubbleinhouseprices.Asthehousepricebubblebegantode?atein2006,anincreasingnumberofmortgageswentintodefault.Furthermore,?nancialinstitutionsbecamereluctanttolendtoeachother,becausepotentiallendersbecameworriedthattheborrowinginstitutionsmayholddodgyassetsthatmadeitmorelikelythattheycouldnotservicetheirdebtsintheWiththefailureofLehmanBrothersinSeptember2008,short-term?nancialmarketsandlendingamong?nancialinstitutionsfroze,andthecrisisenteredamuchworsephase. Thecrisisshowsacontroversialdownsidetoglobalization.Problemsinonesector(housing)inonecountrycanspreadtomuchoftherestoftheworld,throughlossesontheirforeigninvestmentsandthroughdeclinesininternationaltradeingoodsandservices.GeneralEconomicNewsandTheTheFinancialTheWallStreetTheNewYorkNewsCNNFinancialBusinessTheWashingtonStayStayInformedonGlobalTheBRICsThePIIGSoftheTheOECD(30TheG20TheWorldTheInternationalMonetaryFundBankforInternationalSettlementsTheUnitedStayStayInformedonGlobalMajorCurrenciesoftheWorldandExchangeMajorStockMarketMajorGlobal/OffshoreFinancialMajorCommodities(oil,MajorInterestLevelsoftheThreeMajorIndexes(Dow,S&P500,NAS)UnemploymentIn?ation國際收支平衡表（balanceofpayment項(xiàng)目B.3.10003.270703.403.50000［例1］甲國企業(yè)出口價(jià)值100萬美元的設(shè)備，借：資本流出100貸：商品出口100借：本國在外國銀行的存款100貸：商品出口100 ［例5］甲國某企業(yè)在海外投資所得利潤150萬借：進(jìn)口50官方儲(chǔ)備25對(duì)外長期投資75貨：海外投資利潤收入150 貿(mào)易差額（trade經(jīng)常賬戶各項(xiàng)目在國際收支中具有舉足輕重的地位，因此它被視為衡量國際收支平衡與否的vs. 官方結(jié)算差額（of?cialsettlements基本平衡（basicbalance）：經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目加上長期資本流CA+CAP+OSB=0或者CA+CAP=-如果官方不做任何調(diào)整，那就要求：CA=-根據(jù)引發(fā)國際收支失衡的原因，可以將國際Y=CY=C+I+G+X-CA=X- 當(dāng)NFP=0Y=C+I+G+X-M當(dāng)NFP=0們常稱之為"國內(nèi)吸收"(domesticabsorption),以A表示,即:A=C因此,CA=Y-CA=NIIP-NIIPY=C+I+G+X-MX-M=Sp-I+T-G=(Sg+Sp)-I=S-CA=(Sp-I)+(T-Chart2.China’sCurrentAccountBalancesbyCategories,1997-2008(US$Chart3.ChinaGoodsTradeSurplusbyCategories,1997-2007(US$C