煙草會(huì)議中歐講稿

2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer1LessonsfromCompetitveExperiencesW.A.FischerCEIBS,Shanghai

2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer2UnderstandingRivalry:

TheHeartoftheCompetitiveEquation2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer3TheNatureofEconomicInquiry ?thefocusofeconomics[fromaWestern,market-orientedperspective]haslargelybeenonhowwellaneconomyallocatesresources,givenpreferencesandtechnologies.RichardR.Nelsonespeciallywherefirmsaretheprincipalallocatingagents2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer4TheNatureofthePlayers ?economiststendtoseefirmsasplayersinamulti-actoreconomicgame...RichardR.Nelson2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer5TheNatureofRivalry Theessenceofrivalryisastrivingforpotentiallyincompatiblepositions?FredericM.Scherer ?thejockeyingforsharebyfirmswithinamarket.Besanko,Dranove&Shanley2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer6Whoarethese揻irms?andwhataretheirroles?

Somefundamentalassumptions搮anentityrunbyagentsofthecapital-owningprincipalswiththesoleobjectiveofmaximizingtheprofitsofthelatter厰RonaldDorethus,in搈odern?marketeconomy,wecanseparatemanagementfromownership...2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer7OtherUnderlyingAssumptionsprofits[surpluses]beingseenasasignalofperformanceinamarketafaithinmarketallocationofresourcesincomplexsituationsovergovernmentallocation--becausethecustomerisvotingwiththeirpurchasesthemaximizationoftheoverallsocialwelfarefunctionbytheaccumulationofnumerouspersonaldecisions--thecustomerbeingseenasbeinginthebestpositiontodeterminewhattheywant2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer8EstablishingtheArena[Amarketis]thatsetofsuppliersanddemanderswhosetradingestablishesthepriceofagood.GeorgeStigler&RobertSherwinCustomersSuppliersRivalry2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer9Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleThehistoryoftheindustrialrevolutionwasoneofeconomiesofscale.2023/10/1510TheCentralityofScaleEconomiesTheEconomicsoftheIndustrialRevolutionStaticEconomiesDynamicEconomiesCostperUnitRatedCapacityofFacilityCostperUnitCumulativeProductionofAStandardizedItemTheoretical2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer11Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleThehistoryoftheindustrialrevolutionwasoneofeconomiesofscale.Inmarketswhereconsumersarepricesensitive,largerfirmscanusetheircostadvantagetogainanappreciableadvantageoversmallerfirms.IntheUS,ithasbeenshownthatfirmsizeispositivelycorrelatedwithprofitability.However,causeandeffectarenotwell-established.Also,largersharesforsome,meanlowersharesforothers.2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer12Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleThehistoryoftheindustrialrevolutionwasoneofeconomiesofscale.Buteveninsuchanon-complexsetting,biggerwasnotalwaysbetter.Infact,instudiesintheUS,mid-century,minimumoptimalplant/firmsizeappearedtobesmallrelativetomarketsize[single-digit].2023/10/1513TheCentralityofScaleEconomiesTheEconomicsoftheIndustrialRevolutionStaticEconomiesDynamicEconomiesCostperUnitRatedCapacityofFacilityCostperUnitCumulativeProductionofAStandardizedItemTheoretical&Empirical2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer14Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleButeveninsuchanon-complexsetting,biggerwasnotalwaysbetter.OneofthelessonsoftheJapanesemanufacuringtriumphsofthelastthreedecadeshasbeentheimportanceoflearning,throughrepetitivemanufacturing,whichisdifferentthanjustbeingbiggerorsmarter.2023/10/1515TheCentralityofScaleEconomiesTheEconomicsoftheIndustrialRevolutionStaticEconomies

DynamicEconomiesCostperUnitRatedCapacityofFacilityCostperUnitCumulativeProductionofAStandardizedItemTheoretical&Empirical2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer16Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleOneofthelessonsoftheJapanesemanufacuringtriumphsofthelastthreedecadeshasbeentheimportanceoflearning,throughrepetitivemanufacturing.

Yet,learning,especiallywhenbasedonrepetition,comeswiththeriskofrigidityifthefocusistoo-muchonconsistentcost-reduction.2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer17TheImportanceofMarketMaturityempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfaculty ?nearlyonehalfoftherevenuesgeneratedbythe11mostsuccessfulfirms?camefrommaturemarkets.However,77percentofrevenuesfor15oftheleastsuccessfulfirmscamefrommaturemarkets.Capon,Farley&Hoenig2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer18but,marketsarechanging;

theyarenolongerclassicalnorsimple2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer19TheHistoryofCompetitionwasmarkedbysuccessiveIndustrialRevolutions2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer20Tomorrow抯Markets

willbecharacterizedby:*Increasinglydemandingcustomers*Anemergingglobalarena*Anamalgamationofmarketsandresourcepools[EU,NAFTA,etc.]*Theappearanceofadversarialtrade*Neo-Kondratieffiantechnologychanges*Thequickeningoftheproductlife-cycle*Theemergenceoftheknowledge-basedinformationeconomy*Anacceptanceofneworganizationalformats[Alliances,jvs,wofes,etc.]2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer21TheDeathofFirms

Adyingcompanydoesnotlead;itfollows.Itislosingmarketshare,itislosingcapabilities,ithasthewrongsetofcompetencies,itisdemoralized,itsactivitieshavelittleimpact.Infact,allarounduswecanobservecompaniesthatareinastateworsethandeath-theyhavejoinedthelivingdead,aware(ornot)thatwhatevertheydomakeslittledifferencetotheirsituation,andyettheyfeelcompelledtokeeponacting,producing,carryingon. Deathismostoftenalongdrawnoutaffair.Evenwithineptmanagement,itstilltakesalongtimetodestryalargecompanywithoncestrong,ifcurrentlyobsoletecapabilities. Deathisnostrangertotheranksofoncepowerfulmanufacturingcompanies.Everyindustryhasitsshareofthedead,aswellastheterminallyillandthewalkingwounded.TomVollmann:2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer22DeathSignalsofthenon-competitivestayingleveloffallingbehindthecompetitionriskaversionbureaucracylosingcapabilitieserosionofwhatwereoncedistinctivecompetenciesinternalfocusingofcorporateattentionlimitedknowledgeofthecustomerpanicdecisionstoreduceshort-runcostsnotdevelopingpeople? TomVollmann2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer23InHyper-competitiveMarketsSuchasthosecharacterizingglobalmarketsinthelate20thcentury,thatarefilledwith搒urprises?1.theabilitytonavigatefromoneproductgenerationtoanotheristhebasisforsustainedcompetitiveadvantage.ThinkaboutWang!2.greatorganizationsarenecessarytoproducegreatproducts(morethanonce),whilegreatproductsdonotguaranteegreatorganizations.3.揌ighreturnsarenotsustainableinaparticularmarket,buttheprocessofgeneratinghighreturnscanbesustainable.

lastquoteisfrom:Capon,Farley&Hoenig2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer24EarlyLessonsfromInSearchofExcellenceExcellentfirmsarecharacterizedby(amongotherthings:BiasforActionClosetotheCustomerAutonomy&EntrepreneurshipFocusSimpleform,LeanstaffPeters&Waterman2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer25MorerecentfindingsfromEuropeExcellentEuropeanfirmsarecharacterizedby(amongotherthings):Devolvingleadership(withoutlosingcontrolordirection)Drivingradicalchange(intheentirecorporatesystem,not justinitsparts)ReshapingcultureDividingtorule(winningtherewardsofsmallnesswhile stayingorgrowinglarge)Keepingthecompetitiveedge(inaworldwheretheoldways ofwinningnolongerwork)AchievingconstantrenewalRobertHeller2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer26DeterminantsofFinancialPerformancecompetinginrelativelyconcentratedmarketswithhighermarketsharecompetingingrowingmarketshighinvestmentindevelopingnewproducts&serviceshighinvolvementsinmarketsoutsideofUSlowdebtlevelsanentreprenurialatmosphereempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfacultyCapon,Farley&Hoenig2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer27ComparingHigh&LowPerformersempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfacultyHigh-PerformingHigh-ShareFocusedInnovatorsconcentratecapitalinvestmentingrowinginternationalmarketsgeneratenewproductsfromhighR&DbudgetsarehighlyverticallyintegratedhavelittlediversificationhavelowdebthighlyspecializedintheirorganizationHigh-PerformingFocusedWorldConsumeristsfocuslessinternationallyspendheavilyonadvertisinghavelowdebtdiversificationalmostnonexistentCapon,Farley&Hoenig2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer28ComparingHigh&LowPerformersempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfacultyLow-PerformingDiversifiedIndenturedIndustrialistsspendlittleonR&DwerefrequentlyinvolvedinmergersconductedunderduressarehighlydiversifiedhavehighdebtonlyaverageoninternationalinvestmentCapon,Farley&Hoenig2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer29NavigatingResources&InformationInformationComplexityHighLowResourceScarcityLowHighLawrence&DyerDevelopmentPathsforaTypicalIndustry2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer30thiswillmeanchangingthewaysinwhichwedobusiness2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer31DimensionsofTransformationSpeedFastSlowScopeBroadNarrowDoingDifferentThingsDoingtheSameThingsBetterTurnaroundTransformationReengineeringContinuousImprovementSource:TomVollmann2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer32and,changingthebusinesseswedo2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer33IndustryRestructuringasValueMigration

MarketValueisameasureofthepowerofabusinessdesigntocreateandcapturevalue.AdrianJ.Slywotzky Customersmakechoicesbasedontheirpriorities.Thosechoicesdeveloppotentialvalueforthebusinessesfromwhichtheybuy.Atanygiventime,thepatternofthosechoicesallocatesvaluetovariousbusinessdesigns.Ascustomers?prioritieschangeandnewdesignspresentcustomerswithnewoptions,theymakenewchoices.Theyreallocatevalue.Thesechangingpriorities,andthewayinwhichtheyinteractwithnewcompetitors?offerings,arewhattrigger,enable,orfacilitatetheValueMigrationprocess.

AdrianJ.Slywotzky

2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer34ValueMigrationtodayinChina?..ThefirmsthatarewinningintheChinamarketarethosethatcontroltheirvalue-chains,especiallydown-streamfrommanufacturing!Buildingbrandsmakesthedifferenceincompetingonfactorsotherthanprice:brand&customerservicerequiresvalue-chaindiscipline.Nationalbrandsarebeingbuilttoday,asinthepast,byvalue-chaincontrol.2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer35inChina,valuemigrationresultsin...Focusingsolelyontransportcostsmayignore75%ofthedistributioncosts.InChina,nearly2/3ofdistributioncostscomesinproductloss&damage,andtheassociatedinventorycosts.Customerservice&accountsreceivablebothbenefitfromvalue-chaincontrol.BusinessChina12/07/982023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer36IndustryRestructuring&ValueMigrationValueMigrationisnotnew.ValuemigratedawayFord抯verticallyintegrated,single-car-focusedbusinessdesigntowardGM抯price-ladderedbusinessdesigninthe1920s.Itmovedfromgrocerystorechainstosupermarketsinthe1930s,fromfragmentedmerchandiserstonationalcataloguesalesinthe1890s(Sears),andtonationalmerchandisechainsinthe1920s(Searsagain).AdrianJ.Slywotzky TherearealwayswinnersandlosersintheValueMigrationprocess.2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer37WeMustRe-etablishtheArena [thereisabigdifferencebetween]definingcompetitorsas搕hosecompaniesthatdothesamethingthatwedo厯[and]definingthem[instead]asthosebusinessdesignsthatcustomerscanchoosefrominsatisfyingtheirpriorities.AdrianJ.Slywotzky[Where]abusinessdesignisthetotalityofhowacompanyselectsitscustomers,defines&differentiatesitsofferings,definesthetasksitwillperform?configuresitsresources,goestomarket,createsutilityforitscustomersandearningaprofitfromthatactivity.2023/10/15WilliamA.Fischer38TheBroader