2024年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)年度展望

2023-12-202023-12-20重要提示：本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢(xún)業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶(hù)；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。Importantnote:Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.Ourcompanywillnotconsiderrelevantpersonnelascustomersduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport;Therearerisksinthemarket,andinvestmentneedstobecautious.證監(jiān)許可【2012】669號(hào)回顧：2023年，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有所恢復(fù)，但增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)能偏弱，通脹水平偏低。經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的動(dòng)力主劉道鈺要來(lái)自防疫政策優(yōu)化。不過(guò)，由于房地產(chǎn)進(jìn)一步走弱，居民消費(fèi)信心不足、外需回落等因素，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)能偏弱，這導(dǎo)致通脹水平偏低。LiuDaoyuQualificationNo.：F3061482Review:In2023,Chinaeconomyhasrecoveredtosomeextent,butthegrowthConsultingNo.：Z0016422momentumwasrelativelyweakandtheinflationlevelremainedsubdued.Themain桂晨曦drivingforceforeconomicrecoverycomesfromtheoptimizationofCOVIDpolicies.However,duetofurtherweakeningofrealestate,insufficientconsumerconfidence,andaGuiChenxideclineinexternaldemand,Chinaeconomygrowthmomentumwasrelativelyweak,QualificationNo.：F3023159leadingtoalowlevelofinflation.ConsultingNo.：Z0013632展望：2024年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處于波浪式恢復(fù)過(guò)程之中，GDP可能增長(zhǎng)5%左右。2024年政府GDP目標(biāo)可能是5%左右，中央財(cái)政將加杠桿。住宅銷(xiāo)售可能仍偏弱，但同比降幅有望收窄。房地產(chǎn)投資增速可能維持負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，但基建增速有望提高，消費(fèi)繼續(xù)恢復(fù)，出口邊際改善。Outlook:In2024,Chinaeconomyisstillinawavelikerecoveryprocess,andGDPmaygrowbyabout5%.Thegovernment'sGDPtargetfor2024maybearound5%,andthecentralgovernmentwillincreaseleverage.Residentialsalesmaystillbeweak,buttheyear-on-yeardeclineisexpectedtonarrow.Thegrowthrateofrealestateinvestmentmaymaintainnegative,butthegrowthrateofinfrastructureisexpectedtoincrease,consumptioncontinuestorecover,andexportsaresettomarginallyimprove. 1 3 4 8 回顧ReviewIn2023,Chinaeconomyhasrecoveredtosomeextent,butthegrowthmomentumwasrelativelyweakandtheinflationlevelremainedsubdued.DuetotheoptimizationofCOVIDpolicies,China'sGDPgrew5.2%yearonyearinthefirstthreequartersof2023,significantlyhigherthanthegrowthrateof3.0%in2022.However,duetofurtherweakeningofrealestate,insufficientconsumerconfidenceamongresidents,andadeclineinexternaldemand,Chinaeconomygrowthmomentumwasrelativelyweak,leadingtoalowlevelofinflation.Theaveragetwo-yeargrowthrateofChinaGDPinthefirstthreequarterswas4.1%,lowerthanthepotentialgrowthrate.FromJanuarytoOctober,China'scoreCPIincreasedby0.7%year-on-year,atarelativelylowlevel.China:GDP:ConstantPrices:YoY%China:China:GDP:ConstantPrices:YoY:YTD50-5-10Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22Mar-236.05.04.03.02.01.00.0-1.0-2.0ChinaCPIYoY%CoreCPIYoY%Jan-13Aug-14Mar-16Oct-17May-19Dec-20Jul-22 China'sGDPgrowthratetargetin2024maybesetatabout5%forthefollowingreasons:ChinagovernmentexpectedtargetofGDPgrowthChinarealGDPgrowth*9.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.0201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Firstly,thepreventionofdeflationandachievinglong-runpotentialgrowthrequiresa5%growthin2024.ResearchshowsthatChina’slong-runpotentialgrowthrateisabove5%.Thisyear'ssubdueddomesticinflationreflectsabelow-potentialeconomicgrowthrate.Secondly,the2035visionthataimstoachievetheGDPpercapitaofadevelopedeconomycallsfor5%GDPgrowthnextyearandaGDPgrowthCAGRof4.73%.Consideringthatthelong-termeconomicgrowthcentretendstodecline,theaverageannualGDPgrowthratein2021-2025shouldbeabove5%.Thirdly,the5%targetratewillhelpboosttheeconomy’sconfidence.IfGDPgrowsby5%in2024,theeconomywillperformsignificantlybetterthanthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofaround4.2%in2023,helpingtoboostconfidence.Onthecontrary,atargetrateof4.5%willindicatealackofconfidenceinthepolicysettingbody.Atpresent,theimplicitdebtburdenoflocalgovernmentisrelativelyheavy.Asof2023Q3,thecentralgovernmentleverageratiowasonly22.6%,andthelocalgovernmentleverageratiowas31.2%.AccordingtotheestimationoftheBankforInternationalSettlements,theleverageratiooflocalgovernmentsisabout58%includingtheimplicitdebt.Ifthedebtofsomelocalstate-ownedenterprisesisincludedintheimplicitdebtoflocalgovernments,theleverageratiooflocalgovernmentsmaybehigher. 414.7*450414.7*450400350300250200150100500TotalHouseholdTotal*Non-financialenterprisesLocalgovernmentCentralgovernment300250200150100500Dec-01Dec-04Dec-07Dec-10Dec-13Dec-16Dec-19Dec-22Non-financialenterprisesHouseholdGovernmentTotal297.2297.2273.4228.577.7108.761.368.273.3158.291.4111.974.478.1264.4118.0ChinaDevelopedUSAJapaneconomiesDefusinglocalgovernmentdebtriskswillremainhighonthegovernment’sworkagendain2024.Supportingeconomicrecoverywillrelymoreonthecentralgovernment'sleverage.Firstly,achievingtheGDPgrowthtargetofaround5%in2024requiresthecentralgovernmenttoincreaseleverage.China'srealestateandexportsarelikelytoremainweakin2024,andachievingGDPgrowthofaround5%willrequirefurtherfiscalsupport.Secondly,thefiscaldeficitratioreaching3.8%thisyearsignalsthatthecentralgovernmentwillincreaseleverageinthefuture.OnOctober24,2023,theNationalPeople'sCongressapprovedthecentralgovernmenttoissueanadditionalonetrillionyuanoftreasurybonds,raisingthefiscaldeficitratiofrom3%to3.8%,sendinganobvioussignalofpossiblefurtherexpansionaryfiscalpolicies.Chinagovernmentexpectedtargetoffiscaldeficitrate4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%20102012201420162018202020223.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%-0.5%-1.0%TheratioofChinarealizedfiscaldeficittoGDPTheratioofChinafiscaldeficittargettoGDP199519961997199819992000200120022003Thirdly,historicalpatternsindicateahighprobabilityofincreaseintheleverageofthecentralgovernment.Thehistoricalscenariosimilartotheissuanceof1trilliontreasurybondinOctoberthisyearistheissuanceof100billionyuanoftreasurybondinAugust1998.Boththisyearand1998,Chinaeconomyfacedasituationofinsufficientdemand,adeclineinexternaldemand,anincreasedtendencyforhouseholdsavings,adeclineinthegrowthrateofmoneysupply,andlowinflation. AftertheissuanceofadditionaltreasurybondinAugust1998,thetargetofbudgetdeficitratein1999continuedtobehigherthanthelevelof1995-1997andadditionaltreasurybondwasissuedagaininAugust1999.Basedonthisexperience,afterthe1trilliontreasurybondofthisyear,thecentralgovernmentmaycontinuetoincreaseleveragein2024.2.投資InvestmentRealestateinvestmentgrowthislikelytoremainweakin2024.Intermsofinfrastructure,itisexpectedthattheissuanceof1trilliontreasurybondandthecentralleveragingupin2024willpromotethegrowthofinfrastructure.Intermsofmanufacturinginvestment,growthisexpectedtoincreaseslightlyin2024.當(dāng)前住宅銷(xiāo)售偏弱是由于購(gòu)房需求被透支、居民風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好低迷、房?jī)r(jià)預(yù)期 Thecurrentweakresidentialsalescausedbyfactorssuchas,overdrawnofhousingdemand,lowriskappetiteofresidents,pessimistichousingpriceexpectations.Thetypicalperformanceisthatsomeresidentsreducetheirholdingsofrealestate,andtheincreaseinthesupplyofsecond-handhousingleadstoanincreaseintheirtransactionvolumeandacontinuousdeclineinhousingprices,whichrestrainshousingpriceexpectationsandpurchasesentiment,andthusrestrainsnewhomesales.Intermsofstatistics,sinceOctober2021,thelistingpriceindexofsecond-handhousinginTier2citieshastrendeddown12%.Inthefirstthreequartersof2023,thetransactionfloorspaceofsecond-handhousingin16citiesincreasedby32%y-o-y,significantlyhigherthantheYoYgrowthrateofthefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30largeandmedium-sizedcities,whichwas-7%.Transactionfloorspaceofsecond-handhousesin16citiesYoY Transactionfloorspaceofnewlybulithousesin30citiesYoY*100*806040200-20-40-60-80Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Aug-23圖9：二手房成交面積與出售掛牌價(jià)指數(shù)403530252050Dailytransactionfloorspaceofsecond-handhousesin15cities:MA7 Second-handhousingsaleslistingpriceindexofsecondtiercities,rightaxis10000squaremeters195190185180175170165Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23 Residentialsalesarelikelytoremainweakin2024,buttheyear-over-yeardeclineisexpectedtonarrow.Duetotheoverdrawnhousingdemand,thisroundofrealestateadjustmentmaylastlonger.Residents'riskappetitehasrecoveredslowlyaftertheoptimizationofCOVIDpolicies,butmaybedifficulttoreturntonormallevelsin2024,meaningthathomesalescouldremainweakin2024.However,theincreaseinsecond-handhousingtransactionsyearonyearthisyearsuggeststhatthereasonabledemandforhousingmayberesilient.Inaddition,thepolicylevelmayfurtherincreasethesupportforhousingdemand.Weexpecttheyear-over-yeardeclineinresidentialfloorspacesoldtobesignificantlynarrowerin2024,andperhapsevenflatyear-over-year.2024年房地產(chǎn)投資增速可能維持負(fù)增長(zhǎng),但房屋竣The2024realestateinvestmentgrowthratemaymaintainnegativegrowth,buthousingcompletionisexpectedtoexpand.Housingconstructiontakesabout3yearsafterthestartoftheconstructionprocess.Inthelast2years,theareaofnewconstructiondeclinedsignificantly,anditslaggedeffectwillleadtoayear-on-yeardecreaseinthehousingconstructionareain2024,andthegrowthrateofrealestateinvestmentwillalsomaintainnegative.Althoughthelowconstructiondatasince2022willdragdowncompletionvolumein2024,webelievethatthestockofcompletionisstillnotfullydigested,thefirsthalfofnextyear'sdemandforcompletionshouldnotbeoverlypessimistic.Weexpectthatthegrowthrateofcompletedhousingareain2024maybelowerthanthisyear,butitcanstillmaintainpositive. 20-10-20-30-4020-10-20-30-40-50-60FloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldYoY% FloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedYoY% InvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentYoY%(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)Feb-19Nov-19Aug-20May-21Feb-22Nov-22Aug-23AccumulatedfloorspaceofbuildingsunderconstructionYoY% AccumulatedfloorspaceofbuildingscompletedYoY%(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)5Feb-19Dec-19Oct-20Aug-21上半年的實(shí)物工作量相對(duì)可觀。萬(wàn)億國(guó)債主要支持災(zāi)后恢復(fù)重建和提升防災(zāi)減2024年中央財(cái)政加杠桿，新增資金可今年11-12月份萬(wàn)億國(guó)債就會(huì)全部發(fā)Intermsofinfrastructure,the1trilliontreasurybondandincreaseinleverageofcentralgovernmentwillpromoteinfrastructuregrowth,andthephysicalworkloadin2024H1isrelativelyconsiderable.The1trillionyuantreasurybondmainlysupportspost-disasterconstructionanddisasterreliefcapabilities,whichwillsignificantlydrivethegrowthofinvestmentinwaterconservancy,environmentandpublicfacilitiesmanagementnextyear.In2024,thecentralgovernmentwillincreaseleverage,andthenewfundsmayalsobemainlyinvestedininfrastructure.The1trillionyuantreasurybondwillbecompletelyissuedinNovemberandDecemberthisyear.Thereisalagof1-3monthsbetweentheissuanceofbondsandtheiruse.Thebondisexpectedtobringaboutaconsiderablephysicalworkloadin2024H1. ProductionandSupplyofElectricity,GasandWater Transport,StorageandPost(two-yearaverage(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)%%01trilliontreasurybondmajorinvestmentarea1.Reconstructionafterdisaster2.Keyfloodcontrolprojects3.Naturaldisasteremergencyresponsecapacityimp4.Otherkeyfloodcontrolprojects5.Constructionandrenovationofmanagementofso6.Urbandrainageandwaterloggingprevention7.Constructionofcomprehensivepreventionandco8.Highstandardfarmlandconstructioninnortheast此外，地方隱性債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)化解工作的推進(jìn)以及土地出讓金收入降幅收窄也這意味著土地出讓金收入降幅也有望顯著收窄，其對(duì)基建投資的拖累Inaddition,theadvancementoflocalimplicitdebtriskmitigationprocessandthenarrowingofthedeclineinlandrevenuearealsoconducivetothegrowthofinfrastructureinvestment.Thisyear,localdebtriskadverselyimpactedlocalfiscalexpenditure.Steadyprogresswillbemadeindefusinglocalimplicitdebtrisksin2024,whichwillhelplocalgovernmentsincreasesupportforinfrastructureinvestment.Whilerealestateremainsweakin2024,thedeclineinresidentialfloorspacesoldisexpectedtonarrowsignificantly.Thismeansthatthedeclineinlandrevenueisalsoexpectedtobesignificantlynarrowed,anditsdragoninfrastructureinvestmentwillbereduced. CumulativepublicfiscalexpenditureYoY CentralgovernmentcumulativefiscalexpenditureYoY LocalgovernmentcumulativefiscalexpenditureYoY30.020.010.030.020.010.00.0-10.0-20.0*Jan-19Oct-19Jul-20Apr-21Jan-22Oct-22Jul-23Cumulativeincomefromthetransferofstate-ownedlanduserights,YoY Cumulativenationalgovernmentfundexpenditures,YoY80.080.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0-20.0-40.0-60.0Mar-15Mar-17Mar-19Mar-21Mar-23Inthemanufacturingsector,thegrowthrateofmanufacturinginvestmentisexpectedtoincreaseslightlyin2024.Inthefirst10monthsof2023,manufacturinginvestmentgrew6.2%yearonyear,2.9percentagepointslowerthanthatin2022.Oneimportantreasonisthatthedeclineinmanufacturingprofitsin2023H1widenedsignificantly.Manufacturingprofitsarecloselyrelatedtothepriceofindustrialgoods.Since2023H2,theyear-on-yeardeclineinPPIhasnarrowedsignificantly;Theyear-on-yeardeclineinmanufacturingprofitsalsonarrowedsignificantly.ManufacturingprofitsturningpositiveinAugustandSeptember.Nextyear,thecentralgovernmentwillincreaseleveragetofurtherpromotetherecoveryofeconomicgrowth,andtheoverallperformanceofindustrialproductpricesandmanufacturingprofitsislikelytobebetterthanthisyear,whichisconducivetotherecoveryofmanufacturinginvestmentgrowth.Year-on-yeargrowth4030200-10-20-30-40-50 Cumulativeprofitofmanufacturingindustry,YoYTheproducerpriceindex,YoY%Jan-15Mar-16May-17Jul-18Sep-19Nov-20Jan-22Mar-23MonthlyandcumulativtotalmanufacturingpMonthlymanufacturingprofitYoY%50 CumulativemanufacturingprofitYoY%50(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)4030200-10-20-30-40-50Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-233.消費(fèi)Consumption2023年最終消費(fèi)支出對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)率回升，前三季度累計(jì)同比貢獻(xiàn)率年居民消費(fèi)意愿和收入均在漸進(jìn)修復(fù)，但距疫前水平仍有較In2023,thecontributionoffinalconsumptionexpendituretoGDPgrowthrebounded.Inthefirstthreequarters,thecumulativeyear-on-yearcontributionrateoffinalconsumptionexpenditurereached83.2%,makingitthepillarofeconomicgrowth.Itshouldbenotedthatconsumptionrecoveryisagradualprocess.Althoughpeople'sconsumptionwillingnessandincomearegraduallyrecoveringin2023,thereisstillalargegapfromthepre-pandemiclevel.0.750.700.650.600.550.750.700.650.600.55Finalconsumptioncontributiontowards%150100500-50-100-150-200-250 中國(guó):GDP當(dāng)季同比貢獻(xiàn)率:最終消費(fèi)支出PercentageoffinalconsumptionGDPcontribution中國(guó):對(duì)GDP當(dāng)季同比的拉動(dòng):最終消費(fèi)支出(右軸)FinalconsumptionGDPcontribution(RHS)%97531-1-3-5%Marginalpropensityofconsumption%202020202022歷史均值(2013-2019)201920212023Q1Q2Q3Q42023年以來(lái)社零增速總體趨于回升，商品零售和餐飲收入均在回暖。一是In2023,theretailsalesgrowthratetendedtorebound,withbothretailsalesandrestaurantrevenuespickingup.Firstly,theemploymentofagriculturalhouseholdscontinuestoimprove,favoringthegrowthofconsumptioninthemiddleandlow-incomegroups,andprovidingastimulustotheoverallemploymentandconsumption.Secondly,severalresidents'burdenreliefpoliciesfacilitatedtheredistributionofwealth,wealtheffectboostedconsumption.Thirdly,policiespromotingconsumptionofdurablegoodssuchasautomobilesarealsocontinuingtointensify.撐項(xiàng)。尤其是可選和服務(wù)相關(guān)消費(fèi)將發(fā)力明顯，企業(yè)消費(fèi)或亦開(kāi)始漸進(jìn)修復(fù)。Weexpectcontinuousrecoveryofretailsalesin2024withanannualgrowthrateofaround6%.Weexpectthethreesupportingfactorsforretailsalestomaintainitscoursein2024,releasingthepotentialofhouseholdconsumptionandsupportingeconomicgrowth.Inparticular,weexpectdiscretionaryandservice-relatedconsumptionwillbethemaindriverforconsumption,andenterpriseconsumptionmayalsobegintograduallyrepair.RetailSalesYoY%(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0-10.0-15.0-20.020.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0 圖22：工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)降幅開(kāi)始收窄%China:IndustrialEnterprises:TotalProfits:YoY:YTD%China:State-holdingIndustrialEnterprises:TotalProfits:YoY:YTDChina:PrivateIndustrialEnterprises:TotalProfits:YoY:YTD60YoY:YTD40200-20-40-602018/022019/022020/022021/022022/022023/02CommodityRetailYoY% IncomeofCateringIndustryYoY%(twoorfouryearaveragegrowthratein202120.0 15.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0-30.0Feb-19Nov-19Aug-20May-21Feb-22Nov-22Aug-23圖23：居民收入增速與城鎮(zhèn)調(diào)查失業(yè)率（%）86420QuarterlyResidentsIncomeYoY%(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023) QuarterlyUnemploymentRate%(rightaxis)6.05.85.65.45.25.04.84.64.44.24.0Dec-18Sep-19Jun-20Mar-21Dec-21Sep-22Jun-234.出口ExportIn2023,exportssignificantlydraggedeconomicgrowth.Asof2023Q3,thecontributionratioofnetexportstocumulativeGDPYoYwas-13.0%,thelowestlevelsincethepandemic.Country-wise,theshareofIndia,Africa,andLatinAmericainChina'sexportsrose,whiletheshareofEurope,theUnitedStates,andASEANfell.Commodity-wise,exportsofautomobiles,ships,andhouseholdappliancescontinuedtoperform,whileexportsofmechanicalandelectricalequipment,electricequipment,textileandclothing,shoes,andfootwearproducts,whichaccountedforahighproportion,fellsignificantly. .出口金額(美元):當(dāng)月同比◆出口數(shù)量指數(shù):當(dāng)月同比Export(Quantity)%changeExport(Quantity)%changeYoY25changeYoY2050-5-10-15-20Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23圖25：中國(guó)對(duì)外出口中印度、拉美、非洲等份額抬升%Chinaexportstructure,bycountry(7MMA)歐盟拉丁美洲印度東盟美國(guó)歐盟拉丁美洲印度東盟非洲俄羅斯USAfricaUSAfricaRussiaIndiaASEANLatiniAmerica219630In2024,China'sexportisexpectedtopickupslightly,reachingaprojectedannualgrowthrateof3%.Ononehand,SouthKorea,Vietnam'sexportsbottomingoutindicatesthatWesterncountries’electronics,textilesandotherconsumptionbegantopickup.Recently,U.S.furniture,computersandelectronicsnewordersrebounded,furnitureandhomefurnishingsandapparelwholesalersretailgrowthratehasalsobottomedout.Ontheotherhand,