油田規(guī)模序列法迭代法

油田規(guī)模序列法迭代法油田規(guī)模序列是按油田儲(chǔ)量從大到小排列的一個(gè)儲(chǔ)量序列大量的勘探實(shí)踐表明，在一個(gè)獨(dú)立的石油地質(zhì)體系內(nèi)，以油田規(guī)模的序號(hào)為橫坐標(biāo)，以油田規(guī)模為縱坐標(biāo)，在雙對(duì)數(shù)坐標(biāo)系內(nèi)大致形成一條直線。四、油田規(guī)模序列法世界主要含油氣地區(qū)的油田規(guī)模序列①1bbl=159L巴內(nèi)托（Pareto）定律Qm—序號(hào)等于m的油田的儲(chǔ)量Qn—序號(hào)等于n的油田的儲(chǔ)量k——實(shí)數(shù)，直線的斜率根據(jù)已發(fā)現(xiàn)油田的規(guī)模序列，可以預(yù)測(cè)尚未發(fā)現(xiàn)油氣田的儲(chǔ)量以及盆地的總資源量，這種預(yù)測(cè)方法稱為油田規(guī)模序列法四、油田規(guī)模序列法Qmin油田規(guī)模序列遞推公式總資源量其中：為最小經(jīng)濟(jì)油田最小經(jīng)濟(jì)油田指某一評(píng)價(jià)單元內(nèi)，在未來(lái)可預(yù)見開采條件下有開采價(jià)值油氣田的最小（地質(zhì)和可采）儲(chǔ)量關(guān)鍵參數(shù)：K值最大油田的規(guī)模四、油田規(guī)模序列法根據(jù)已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)的油田儲(chǔ)量序列推算出油田規(guī)模序列的k值求出最大（序號(hào)為1）油田的儲(chǔ)量Qmax根據(jù)Qmax和k對(duì)已發(fā)現(xiàn)油田的儲(chǔ)量進(jìn)行歸位求出序列中未發(fā)現(xiàn)油田的儲(chǔ)量對(duì)已發(fā)現(xiàn)油田和未發(fā)現(xiàn)油田的儲(chǔ)量求和得評(píng)價(jià)區(qū)的總資源量油田規(guī)模序列法的計(jì)算過程四、油田規(guī)模序列法1）令k=-tgθ,θ=115O-155O，以5O為步長(zhǎng)有9個(gè)k值：-tg115=2.1445-tg120=1.7321-tg125=1.4281-tg130=1.1918-tg135=1.0000-tg140=0.8391-tg145=0.7002-tg150=0.5774-tg155=0.46632)記已發(fā)現(xiàn)的t個(gè)油田的儲(chǔ)量由大到小為Q1，Q2…Qt

對(duì)于給定的k值作：1、迭代法求k值和已知油田的序號(hào)四、油田規(guī)模序列法3）根據(jù)A1，A2…At建立下面的矩陣

矩陣中行是序列A1，A2…At中的每個(gè)元素乘以某一正整數(shù)ni=1,2,3,…得到的(同一行的元素乘以不同的數(shù))，記住每個(gè)元素所乘的數(shù)四、油田規(guī)模序列法4)計(jì)算各行的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差:

如果矩陣的第m行的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差小于給定的誤差EP(EP=0.01-0.05)時(shí),則有:四、油田規(guī)模序列法即有:此時(shí)的m即為已發(fā)現(xiàn)的最大油田在油田規(guī)模序列中的序號(hào),矩陣的第m行可以作為油田規(guī)模序列的預(yù)測(cè)模型5)把預(yù)測(cè)模型中的每個(gè)元素bmi除以Ai,得到已發(fā)現(xiàn)油田在規(guī)模序列中的序號(hào)(所乘的數(shù)):四、油田規(guī)模序列法6)求出最大油田的儲(chǔ)量7）根據(jù)最大油田的儲(chǔ)量預(yù)測(cè)出評(píng)價(jià)區(qū)油田規(guī)模序列中各油田的儲(chǔ)量四、油田規(guī)模序列法8）求出評(píng)價(jià)區(qū)總資源量Qmin四、油田規(guī)模序列法一般假定，評(píng)價(jià)區(qū)最大油田(或前幾個(gè)最大油田)已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)。第1、2、3、4、5…此時(shí)可以根據(jù)前幾個(gè)序號(hào)油田的儲(chǔ)量求出評(píng)價(jià)區(qū)油田規(guī)模序列的k值和規(guī)模序列根據(jù)規(guī)模序列對(duì)已知其它油田進(jìn)行歸位，并求出評(píng)價(jià)區(qū)的預(yù)測(cè)油田的資源量將已知油田的儲(chǔ)量與預(yù)測(cè)油田的儲(chǔ)量相加，得到評(píng)價(jià)區(qū)的總資源量2、擬合法求k值四、油田規(guī)模序列法四、油田規(guī)模序列法序號(hào)油田名稱區(qū)塊名稱發(fā)現(xiàn)年度探明儲(chǔ)量

(萬(wàn)t)lnmlnQlnm回歸m回歸m歸位1榆樹林油田樹81978473208.46210.52171.684912榆樹林油田樹32197846680.69318.44850.53341.704723升平油田升平(葡)197724481.09867.80301.08552.961034榆樹林油田38637.72711.15053.159745榆樹林油田徐2197816181.60947.38891.43974.219656升平油田升22197714861.79187.30381.51254.538267榆樹林油田東16197812021.94597.09171.69405.441178榆樹林油田升36-樹10319788622.07946.75931.97847.231189榆樹林油田樹1019786882.19726.53382.17138.7694910榆樹林油田東1219786242.30266.43622.25489.53331011榆樹林油田樹20619785672.39796.34042.336710.34741112榆樹林油田升4619785512.48496.31172.361210.60391213徐家圍子油田徐119764372.56496.07992.559512.92951314榆樹林油田升4819782842.63915.64902.928218.69331815徐家圍子油田徐1419761692.70815.12993.372229.14262916榆樹林油田77264.78753.665139.06033917榆樹林油田升3919781152.83324.74493.701540.50854018榆樹林油田樹1511978872.89044.46593.940251.42885119榆樹林油田升371978652.94444.17444.189665.99476520榆樹林油田東181978582.99574.06044.287072.75137221榆樹林油田升381978563.04454.02544.317174.96827422榆樹林油田升181978533.09103.97034.364278.58377823榆樹林油田東151978483.13553.87124.448985.53548524榆樹林油田升2011978423.17813.73774.563295.88579525榆樹林油田升341978243.21893.17815.0419154.759215426榆樹林油田肇深51978153.25812.70815.4439231.3487231選取探明序列中前15個(gè)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行擬合，可以得到K值和規(guī)模序列。假定最大油田已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)，即4732萬(wàn)噸。根據(jù)規(guī)模序列對(duì)已知油田進(jìn)行歸位。并預(yù)測(cè)未發(fā)現(xiàn)油田的規(guī)模。擬合K值油田規(guī)模序列法四、油田規(guī)模序列法-K=-1.169序列油田規(guī)模1473224668324484226951618614867120288629688106241156712551134371828429169391204011551876565725874567853854895421542423115探明序列預(yù)測(cè)序列（一）序列油田規(guī)模序列油田規(guī)模序列油田規(guī)模序列油田規(guī)模序列油田規(guī)模14398.2041113.396664.999343.5311733.2815367.3442110.246763.869442.9911832.9516340.6543107.256862.769641.9411932.6317317.3444104.416961.709741.4412032.3119278.6545101.707060.679840.9412132.0020262.434699.127159.689940.4612231.6921247.884796.667357.7710039.9912331.3922234.764894.317555.9710139.5212431.1023222.874992.067655.1110239.0712530.8124212.065089.917754.2810338.6312630.5225202.185285.887952.6710438.2012730.2426193.115383.998051.9010537.7712829.9627184.785482.188151.1610637.3512929.6928177.095580.438250.4310736.9513029.4330163.375678.768349.7210836.5513129.1631157.225777.148449.0310936.1513228.9032151.505875.598647.7011035.7713328.6533146.145974.108747.0611135.3913428.4034141.136072.658846.4311235.0313528.1635136.436171.268945.8211334.6613627.9136132.016269.929045.2311434.3113727.6837127.856368.639144.6511533.9613827.4438123.926467.379244.0811633.6213927.21四、油田規(guī)模序列法公式：預(yù)測(cè)序列（二）序列油田規(guī)模序列油田規(guī)模序列油田規(guī)模序列油田規(guī)模14026.9816422.4318719.2421016.8014126.7616522.2718819.1221116.7014226.5416622.1118919.0021216.6114326.3216721.9619018.8821316.5214426.1116821.8019118.7721416.4314525.9016921.6519218.6521516.3414625.6917021.5019318.5421616.2514725.4917121.3619418.4321716.1714825.2917221.2119518.3221816.0814925.0917321.0719618.2121915.9915024.8917420.9319718.1022015.9115124.7017520.7919817.9922115.8215224.5117620.6519917.8922215.7415324.3217720.5120017.7822315.6615523.9617820.3820117.6822415.5815623.7817920.2520217.5822515.5015723.6018020.1120317.4822615.4215823.4318119.9820417.3822715.3415923.2518219.8620517.2822815.2616023.0818319.7320617.1822915.1816122.9218419.6020717.0823015.1016222.7518519.4820816.9916322.5918619.3620916.89注：根據(jù)大慶局提供的資料，本區(qū)最小經(jīng)濟(jì)油藏規(guī)模為15萬(wàn)噸。四、油田規(guī)模序列法四、油田規(guī)模序列法探明：23288預(yù)測(cè)：11500.05合計(jì)：34788.05探明油田個(gè)數(shù)：26個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)油田個(gè)數(shù)：205個(gè)合計(jì)：231個(gè)油田規(guī)模序列法的有關(guān)問題油田規(guī)模序列法是一種簡(jiǎn)便而實(shí)用的資源預(yù)測(cè)方法，有許多成功的例子在盆地資源量計(jì)算中，采用油田規(guī)模序列，而在運(yùn)聚單元級(jí)資源量計(jì)算中應(yīng)采用油藏規(guī)模序列合理進(jìn)行油田或油藏單元的劃分是該方法應(yīng)用的關(guān)鍵數(shù)學(xué)計(jì)算的結(jié)果要經(jīng)過地質(zhì)分析的認(rèn)可四、油田規(guī)模序列法油田規(guī)模序列法適用于一個(gè)完整的、獨(dú)立的石油地質(zhì)體系完整獨(dú)立的石油地質(zhì)體系是指油氣生成、運(yùn)移、聚集及以后演化都是在體系內(nèi)進(jìn)行的，與外界沒有聯(lián)系因此，盆地、坳陷、凹陷、含油氣系統(tǒng)、油氣運(yùn)聚單元都是這樣的石油地質(zhì)體系，都可以使用油田規(guī)模序列法油田規(guī)模序列法的使用條件四、油田規(guī)模序列法油藏規(guī)模序列法—迭代法已發(fā)現(xiàn)油氣藏規(guī)模序列圖序號(hào)油田名稱區(qū)塊名稱發(fā)現(xiàn)年度探明儲(chǔ)量

(萬(wàn)t)lnmlnQ1榆樹林油田樹81978473208.46212榆樹林油田樹32197846680.69318.44853升平油田升平(葡)197724481.09867.80304榆樹林油田38637.72715榆樹林油田徐2197816181.60947.38896升平油田升22197714861.79187.30387榆樹林油田東16197812021.94597.09178榆樹林油田升36-樹10319788622.07946.75939榆樹林油田樹1019786882.19726.533810榆樹林油田東1219786242.30266.436211榆樹林油田樹20619785672.39796.340412榆樹林油田升4619785512.48496.311713徐家圍子徐119764372.56496.079914榆樹林油田升4819782842.63915.649015徐家圍子徐1419761692.70815.129916榆樹林油田77264.787517榆樹林油田升3919781152.83324.744918榆樹林油田樹1511978872.89044.465