新視野大學(xué)英語第四冊-unit1B-Why-do-smart-people-do-dumb-things

./Whydosmartpeopledodumbthings?聰明人為何會做蠢事？Orthodoxviewsprizeintelligenceandintellectualrigorhighlyinthemodernrealmofuniversitiesandtechindustryjobs.Oneoftheunderlyingassumptionsofthisvaluesystemisthatsmartpeople,byvirtueofwhatthey'velearned,willformulatebetterdecisions.Oftenthisistrue.Yetpsychologistswhostudyhumandecisionmakingprocesseshaveuncoveredcognitivebiasescommontoallpeople,regardlessofintelligence,thatcanleadtopoordecisionsinexpertsandlaymenalike.傳統(tǒng)觀念將智力和思維的縝密性看作現(xiàn)代大學(xué)領(lǐng)域和科技產(chǎn)業(yè)工作的重要素質(zhì).這一價值體系所隱含的前提是,聰明人借助自己豐富的學(xué)識會作出更高明的決定.在大多數(shù)情況下,確實如此.但是,研究人類決策過程的心理學(xué)家們卻發(fā)現(xiàn)了每個人身上都常見的"認(rèn)知偏差".不管智力水平如何,這些認(rèn)知偏差都會引導(dǎo)人們作出錯誤的決定,不論他們是專家還是門外漢.Thankfullythesebiasescanbeavoided.Understandinghowandinwhatsituationstheyoccurcangiveyouanawarenessofyourownlimitationsandallowyoutofactorthemintoyourdecision-making.好在這些偏差是可以避免的.只要知道這些偏差如何及在何種情況下發(fā)生,你就能意識到自身的缺陷,并在決策過程中考慮到這些因素的影響.Oneofthemostcommonbiasesiswhatisknownasthefundamentalattributionerror.Throughthispeopleattributethefailuresofotherstocharacterflawsandtheirowntomerecircumstance,subconsciouslyconsideringtheirowncharacterstobestainless."Jenkinslosthisjobbecauseofhisincompetence;Ilostminebecauseoftherecession."Italsoleadsustoattributeourownsuccesstoourqualifications,discountingluck,whileseeingothers'successastheproductofmereluck.最常見的偏差之一就是通常所說的"基本歸因錯誤".犯這種錯誤的人會將別人的失敗歸因于性格缺陷,而將自己的失敗僅僅歸因于周遭環(huán)境,潛意識中認(rèn)為自己的性格是完美無瑕的."詹金斯丟掉了工作是因為他能力太差,我丟掉了工作則是因為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退."同樣,這種偏差也會讓我們將自己的成功歸功于自身素質(zhì)而不是運氣,而將別人的成功僅僅看作是運氣使然.Inotherwords,wetypicallydemandmoreaccountabilityfromothersthanwedofromourselves.Notonlydoesthisleadtopettyjudgmentsaboutotherpeople,italsoleadstofaultyriskassessmentwhenyouassumethatcertainbadthingsonlyhappentoothers.Forexample,youmightassume,withoutevidence,thatthepriceofyourhousewillgoupeventhough90percentofthemhavedroppedinprice,becauseyouyourselfaremorecompetent.換句話說,我們通常要求別人承擔(dān)更多的責(zé)任,而不是自己.這不僅導(dǎo)致我們心胸狹窄地對別人進(jìn)行評價,也會由于假定某種壞事只會發(fā)生在別人身上而致使我們做出錯誤的風(fēng)險評判.舉一個例子,你可能會毫無根據(jù)地假定自己的房子會升值,哪怕周圍百分之九十的房子都已經(jīng)貶值了,因為你總認(rèn)為自己的能力更強(qiáng).Confirmationbiasissometimesfoundtogetherwithfundamentalattributionerror.Thisonehastwoparts.First,wetendtogatherandrelyuponinformationthatonlyconfirmsourexistingviews.Second,weavoidorvetothingsthatrefuteourpreexistinghypotheses."確定性偏差"有時會和"基本歸因錯誤"一并出現(xiàn).這種偏差包含兩部分：第一,我們往往只收集且只依賴對我們的已有觀點起支持作用的信息；第二,我們回避或否認(rèn)那些與自己之前所持的假設(shè)相左的信息.Forexample,imaginethatyoususpectyourcomputerhasbeenhacked.Everytimeitstallsorhasalittleerror,youassumethatitwastriggeredbyahackerandthatyoursuspicionsarevalid.Thisbiasplaysanespeciallybigroleinrivalriesbetweentwoopposingviews.Eachsidepartitionstheirownbeliefsinalogic-proofloop,andclaimstheiropponentisfailingtorecognizevalidpoints.Outwittingconfirmationbiasthereforerequiresexploringbothsidesofanargumentwithequaldiligence.比如說,假設(shè)你懷疑自己的電腦受到了黑客攻擊,那么它每次死機(jī)或出個小錯,你都會認(rèn)定是由黑客引起的,而且你認(rèn)定自己的懷疑正確無誤.這種偏差在兩種敵對觀點的對抗中會起到尤其重要的作用.每一方都會把自己的觀點隔離出來,認(rèn)為其在邏輯上無懈可擊,并聲稱他們的對手忽略了某些要點.所以,要克服"確定性偏差",就要以同樣的努力認(rèn)真探究論點的正反兩面.Similartoconfirmationbiasistheoverconfidencebias.Inanidealworld,wecouldbecorrect100percentofthetimewewere100percentsureaboutsomething,correct80percentofthetimewewere80percentsureaboutsomething,andsoon.Inreality,people'sconfidencevastlyexceedstheaccuracyofthosejudgments.Thisbiasmostfrequentlycomesintoplayinareaswheresomeonehasnodirectevidenceandmustmakeaguess-estimatinghowmanypeopleareinacrowdedplaza,forexample,orhowlikelyitwillrain.Tomakemattersworse,evenwhenpeopleareawareofoverconfidencebias,theywillstilltendtooverstatethechancesthattheyarecorrect.Confidenceisnoprophetandisbestusedtogetherwithavailableevidence.Whenwitnessesarecalledtotestifyinacourttrial,theconfidenceintheirtestimonyismeasuredalongwithandagainsttheevidenceathand.與"確定性偏差"相類似的是"過度自信偏差".在一個理想的世界,當(dāng)我們百分之百地確信某件事時,我們就百分之百地正確；當(dāng)我們百分之八十地確信某件事時,我們就百分之八十地正確,以此類推.但在現(xiàn)實中,人們的信心卻大大超過了其判斷的準(zhǔn)確度.在一個人缺乏直接證據(jù)而必須要作出某種猜測的情況下,這一偏差就最有可能起作用,比如,估計一個擁擠的購物廣場有多少人,或下雨的可能性有多大.更糟糕的是,即使人們意識到自己有過度自信的偏差,他們還是會高估自己的正確率.光靠自信是無法進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測的,只有在切實證據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,自信才能發(fā)揮最大的作用.當(dāng)法庭傳喚目擊者出庭作證時,對他們證詞的信任度是通過已經(jīng)獲取的相符或相反的證據(jù)來度量的.Theavailabilitybiasisalsorelatedtoerrorsinestimation,inthatwetendtoestimatewhatoutcomeismorelikelybyhoweasilywecanrecountanexamplefrommemory.Sincetheretentionandretrievalofmemoriesisbiasedtowardvivid,sensational,oremotionallychargedexamples,decisionsbasedonthemcanoftenleadtostrange,inaccurateconclusions.憑借回憶某一例證的難易程度來推測哪種結(jié)果更可能出現(xiàn).由于記憶的留存和重拾會因為事件的生動與否、震撼程度和情感觸動程度的不同而產(chǎn)生偏差,那么,基于這些記憶所作出的決定也往往會是奇怪或不準(zhǔn)確的結(jié)論.Inactionthisbiasmightleadsomeonetocancelatripto,forexample,theCanaryIslandsbecauseofareportthatthebiggestplanecrashinhistoryhappenedthere.Likewisesomepeoplemightstopgoingoutatnightforfearofassaultorrape.在具體行為中,這種偏差可能會使某人取消比如前往加那利群島的行程,因為有報道說,史上最慘重的空難就發(fā)生在那里.同樣,人們也可能因懼怕遭到人身侵犯或者強(qiáng)暴而不敢再在晚上出門.Repellingtheavailabilitybiascallsforanempiricalapproachtoaparticulardecision,onenotbasedontheobscuredrealityofvividmemory.Ifthereisalowincidenceofdisaster,likeonlyoneoutof100,000planelandingsresultsinacrash,itissafetoflytotheCanaryIslands.Ifoneoutofonemillionpeoplewhogooutisassaulted,itissafetogooutatnight.要排除"可得性偏差",就必須在作某一具體決定時,以實證方法所取得的證據(jù)為依據(jù),而不是以與現(xiàn)實不太相符的某個鮮明的記憶為依據(jù).如果災(zāi)難的發(fā)生率很低,比如飛機(jī)著陸過程中墜毀的可能性只有十萬分之一,那么飛往加那利群島就仍是安全的.如果人們外出只有百萬分之一的幾率遭到人身侵犯,那么夜晚出行也就仍是安全的.Thesunkcostfallacyhasaperiodicapplicationandwasfirstidentifiedbyeconomists.Agoodexampleofhowitworksisthecasinoslotmachine.Gamblerswithahighthresholdforriskputmoneyintoaslotmachinehopingforabigreturn,butwitheachpullofthelevertheylosesomemoneyplayingtheodds.Iftheyhavebeenpullingthelevermanytimesinarowwithoutsuccess,theymightdecidethattheyhadbetterkeepspendingmoneyatthemachine,ortheywillhavewastedeverythingtheyalreadyputin."沉沒成本謬誤"也時有發(fā)生,它最初是由經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家發(fā)現(xiàn)的.其作用機(jī)理最好的例證就是賭場老虎機(jī).賭徒們冒著高風(fēng)險,把錢投入老虎機(jī),期望能夠得到很大的回報,但隨著一次次拉動拉桿,他們也一次次把錢賭輸了.如果他們多次連續(xù)拉動拉桿而沒有一次成功,他們可能會決定最好還是繼續(xù)把錢投入老虎機(jī),否則他們之前投入的成本就悉數(shù)浪費了.Thetruthisthateverypulloftheleverhasthesamewinningprobabilityofnearlyoneinatrillion,regardlessofhowmuchmoneyhasbeenputinbefore-thepreviousplaysweresunkcosts.而事實是,不論他們之前投入了多少錢,每一次拉動拉桿的成功幾率都同樣是極小的——之前投入的那些即為沉沒成本.Ineverydaylifethiscanleadpeopletostayindamagingsituationsbecauseofhowmuchtheyhavealreadyputin,stuckontheerrone