互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險承擔(dān)的影響基于動態(tài)面板GMM模型的實證分析

OverviewofthisartWiththerapiddevelopmentofinformationtechnothewideapplicationoftheInternet,Internetfinance,asanumberofusers,whichhasaprofoundimpactontherisktoftraditionalfinancialinstitutionssuchascommercialbanks.ThepurposeofthispaperistoexploretheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking,aordertoprovideusefulreferencecommercialbanks'riskmanagement.ThispaperwillelaboprocessandimpactmechanismofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risktaking.ThroughacomparativeanalysisoftheindirectimpactofInternetfinanceonrisk-taking,layingaThispaperwillbuildadynamicpanelGMMmodeltobanks'risk-takingbyquantitativeanalysis.Intheprocessofmodelconstruction,variouscontrolvgovernancestructureofbanks,etc.,toensuretheaccuracyandBasedontheresultsofempiricalputforwardcorrespondingpolicysuggestionsandmeasureshelpcommercialbankopportunitiesbroughtbyInternetfinance.Thisarticlewillalsoreflectonandlookforwardtresearch,inordertoprovidereferenceandinspirationforoncommercialbanks'risk-takingthrouenlightenmentandsuggestionsfor二、文獻綜述risktaking.Inrecentyears,academiahasconductedalotofresearchontheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking.ThesestudiesexploredthemechanismconsequencesofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks’Internetfinancehasincreasedtherisktakingmarketshare,therebyincreasingtheirrisk-taking.Theandincreasedtheriskexposureofbanks.另一方面，也有學(xué)者認為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險承擔(dān)具有正面影響?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)金融通過技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和模式創(chuàng)新，為商業(yè)銀行提供了更多的風(fēng)險管理工具和手段。商業(yè)銀行可以通過與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的合作，提高自身的風(fēng)險管理水平，降低風(fēng)險承擔(dān)。同時，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展也促進了金融市場的競爭，推動了商業(yè)銀行的改革和創(chuàng)新，提高了其風(fēng)險抵御能力。Ontheotherhand,somescholarsbelievethfinancehasapositiveimpactonbanks.Internetfinanceprovidesmfinance,commercialbankscanimprovetheirfinancialmarket,promotedthereformandinnovationofcommercialbanks,andimprovedtheirr聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險承擔(dān)的影響。這種模型能夠有效地控制內(nèi)生性問題，提高估計的準(zhǔn)確性。通過對歷史數(shù)據(jù)的分析，學(xué)者們發(fā)現(xiàn)互Internetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-takinestimationaccuracy.ThroughtheanalysisofhistoricalscholarsfoundthatthedevelopmentofInternethaveasignificantimpactonthebanks,butthedirectionandextentofthisimpactvariedwithTheimpactofInternetfinanceoncommercrisk-takingisacneedstofurtherexpInternetfinanceandcommercialbanks,andhowtopromotethecoordinateddevelopmentofInternetfinanceandcommercialbanksonthepremiseofensur本文采用動態(tài)面板GMM(GeneralizedMethodofMoments)模是一種基于矩估計的面板數(shù)據(jù)分析方法，它通過構(gòu)造樣本矩，并利用樣本矩的線性組合對參數(shù)進行估計，具有較好的小樣本特性和穩(wěn)健性。在動態(tài)面板模型中，我們引入了被解釋變量的滯后項作為解釋變量，以控制可能存在的動態(tài)效應(yīng)和內(nèi)生性問題。financeoncommercialbanks'risk-taking.Theconstructssamplemomentsandestimamodel,weintroducethelaggedtermofthedependentvariableastheexplanatoryvariabletofinancialdevelopmentindex,commercialbanks'risktakingInternetFinanceResearchCenterofPekingUniversity,whichcomprehensivelyconsidersvariousaspectsofInternetfinance,includingInternetpayment,onlincrowdfunding,etc.,andishighlyauthoritativeandrepresentative.Theriskbearingindicatorsofcnon-performingloancomprehensivelyreflecttheriskbearinglevelofcommercialvariablestoeliminatetheimpactofddata.Intermsofmodelsetting,weseltothemodeltoensureitsapplicabilityandByusingthedynamicpanelGMMmodel,combinedwithin-depthanalysisoftheimpactofInternetfinancecommercialbanks'risktaking,withaviewtoprovidingusefulreferenceandenlightenmentforthehealthydevelopmentofChina'sfinancialmarketdataofmajorcommercialbanksinChina.Intermsofvariableselection,therisktakingofcommercialbanksistakenasexplanatoryvariable,andthedevtime,aseriesofcontrolvariablesthatmayaffecttherisktakingofbanks,suchasbanksize,capitaladequacyratio,profitabilityandliquidity,arecontrol為了更準(zhǔn)確地捕捉互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險承擔(dān)的動態(tài)影響，本研究采用動態(tài)面板GMM模型。該模型能夠處理面板數(shù)據(jù)中的內(nèi)生性問題和動態(tài)效應(yīng)，使估計結(jié)果更為穩(wěn)健。模型設(shè)定如下：InordertomoreaccuratelycapturethedynamicimpactofRisk_it=a+β1*IFT_it+β2*BankSize_itCapitalRatio_it+β4*Profitabi+β6*Risk_it-1+e_itRiskit=a+β1*IFT.it+βCapitalRatio_it+β4*Profitability_it+β5*Liquidity_it+β6*Risk其中，Risk_it表示第i家銀行在第t年的風(fēng)險承擔(dān)水平，IFT_itCapitalRatioit、Profitability_it、Liquidity_it分別表示第iithbankinyeart,IFT_itreferstothedevelopmentdegreeofinternetfinanceoftheithbCapitalRatio_it,Profitability_it,Liquidity_itrefertotheprofitabilityandliquidityoftheithbankinyeart,Risk_it-1referstotherisk-takingleveloftheit (1)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融發(fā)展程度對商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險承擔(dān)具有顯著影響。(1)ThedevelopmentofInternetthedevelopmentofInternetfinancewillsignificantlyincreasethelevelofrisktakingofcommercialbanks.ThismaybebecausetherapiddevelopmentofInternetfinancehas(2)在控制變量中，銀行規(guī)模和資本充足率對商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險承擔(dān)具有顯著的負向影響，而盈利能力和流動性對商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險承擔(dān)的影響則不顯著。這表明，較大的銀行規(guī)模和較高的資本充足率有助于降低商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險承擔(dān)水平。ratiocanhelpreducetherisk-takinglevelofcommercial(3)動態(tài)面板GMM模型的估計結(jié)果還顯示，上一期的商業(yè)銀行alsoshowthatthepreviousperiod'slevelofcommercialbankrisk-takinghasasignificadevelopmentofInternetfinancewillincreasethelevelofrisktakingofcommercialbanks.Therefore,inthecontextoftherapiddevelopmentofInternetfinance,commercialbanksshouldstrengthenriskmanagementandimproveriskpreventiontheoccurrenceandspreadof五、結(jié)果討論impactofInternetfinanceoncommercialbanks'risk-taking,wefindthatthedevelopmentofInternetfinancehasindeedhadacertainimpactoncommercialbanks'risk-taking.T行的風(fēng)險承擔(dān)。這主要源于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的靈活性和創(chuàng)新性，使得部分資金從商業(yè)銀行轉(zhuǎn)向互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融平臺，導(dǎo)致商業(yè)銀行的信貸規(guī)模和市場份額受到一定沖擊。同時，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融產(chǎn)品的高收益率吸引了大量投資者，進一步加劇了商業(yè)銀行的資金流失，從而增加了hasincreasedtherisktakingofcommercialcommercialbankstoInternetcommercialbanks.Atthesametime,thefurtherintensifyingthecapitaldrainofcommercialbanks,然而，從長期趨勢來看，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展對商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險承金融推動了商業(yè)銀行的數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型和創(chuàng)新發(fā)展，使其能夠更好地適應(yīng)市場變化和客戶需求；二是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展促進了金融市場的競爭，推動了商業(yè)銀行提高風(fēng)險管理水平和服務(wù)質(zhì)量；三是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融與商業(yè)銀行的深度融合，為商業(yè)銀行提供了新的業(yè)務(wù)增長點和盈利模式，有助于降低其風(fēng)險承擔(dān)。malong-tefofcommercialbanks.Thisismainlyreaspects:First,Internetfinancehaspromotedthenablingthemtobetteradapttomarketchanneeds;Second,thedevelopmentofInternetfinancehaspromotedbankstoimprovetheirriskmanagemcommercialbankshasprovidedcommercialbankswithnew我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)不同類型的商業(yè)銀行在面臨互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融沖擊時，風(fēng)險承擔(dān)的變化存在差異。國有大型商業(yè)銀行由于其雄厚的資本實力和廣泛的市場份額，能夠更好地應(yīng)對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的挑戰(zhàn)，降低風(fēng)險承擔(dān)。而中小型商業(yè)銀行由于規(guī)模較小、抗風(fēng)險能力較弱，在面對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融沖擊時，風(fēng)險承擔(dān)可能會有所增加。Wealsofindthatdifferenttypesofcommercialbankshaveshocks.LargestacapitalstrengthandbroadmarkHowever,smallandmedium-sizedcommercialbanks,duetotheir互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險承擔(dān)的影響具有雙重性。在短期內(nèi)，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的興起可能會增加商業(yè)銀行的風(fēng)險承擔(dān)；但從長期來看，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的發(fā)展有助于推動商業(yè)銀行的數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型和創(chuàng)新發(fā)展，降低其風(fēng)險承擔(dān)。因此，商業(yè)銀行應(yīng)積極應(yīng)對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的挑戰(zhàn)，加強風(fēng)險管理和業(yè)務(wù)創(chuàng)新，以實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。TheimpactofInternetfinanceonrisk-takingistwofold.financemayincreasetherisktakingofcommercialbankHowever,inthelongrun,thedevelopmentofInternetdevelopmentofcommercialbanksandreducetheir