麥肯錫用戶研究：歐洲消費(fèi)者如何看待電動(dòng)汽車 How European consumers perceive electric vehicles 2024

Mcsey

&company

Automotive&AssemblyPractice

HowEuropeanconsumersperceiveelectricvehicles

Astheelectric-vehiclemarketcontinuestogrowinEurope,customerexpectationsarealsoevolving.

ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyAndreasVenus,PatrickSchaufuss,andTimoM?ller,withAnna-SophieSmith,FelixRupalla,JanPaulitschek,andLauraSolvie,representingviewsfromtheMcKinseyCenterforFutureMobility.

August2024

2

Electricvehicles(EVs)arenolongeraniche

business.Theynowaccountfor16percentof

new-carsalesinEurope,upfromunder1percentin2019.Despitetheremovalofpurchasesubsidies

incertainmarkets,suchasGermanyattheendof

2023,saleshaveremainedstable.Sincethe

beginningof2024,morethan875,000newfullbatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)havebeen

soldacrossthecontinent.

AsEVgrowthcontinuestounfoldinEurope

,

automakersaredevelopingmorenuancedprofilesoftheaverageEVbuyerstheyaretargeting.Somebuyersareinnovators,orearlyadopters,whooptedforEVsyearsagoandarenowontheirsecond

orthirdpurchase.Althoughthissegmentremainsimportant,theEVcustomerbaseisalsoexpanding

toincludemoremainstreamcustomerswhohavedifferent

expectationsforEVs

.

TounderstandEuropeanconsumers’viewsonEVsandkeymarkettrends,werecentlypolled15,034

individualsinFrance,Germany,Italy,andNorway

aspartofourregularMcKinseyMobilityConsumerPulseSurvey,whichcloselymonitorsconsumer

perceptionsaboutthefutureofmobilityingeneral

(seesidebar,“Aboutthesurvey,”formoreonour

methodology).WecombinedinsightsfromthesurveywithmobilityresearchtoanalyzeEVuptakepatterns,

identifymajorconsumerconcerns,explore

perceptionsofincumbentsandnewentrants,andinvestigatetheused-EVmarket.

ElectrificationmomentumcontinuesacrossEurope

ElectrificationisattractingmuchconsumerinterestinEurope.Ofthecarbuyersinoursurveywho

havenotyetpurchasedanEV,38percentsaytheirnextvehiclewillbeelectric.Alittlelessthanhalf

ofthesepotentialbuyersplantobuyaBEV,withtherestoptingforplug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs)(Exhibit1).

Exhibit1

Manycarbuyersinourlatestsurveyareconsideringpurchasinganelectricvehicle.

Powertrainconsiderationsfornextvehiclepurchase,%ofEuropeannon-EV1ownerrespondents

Dec2022

(n=9,542)

Feb2024

(n=10,683)

Dec2021

(n=5,785)

17

27

16

10

9

21

16

22

18

12

10

22

18

23

17

12

7

23

Nextvehicleisbatteryelectric

Nextvehicleisplug-inhybridelectric

MaybuyonemorenewICEvehicleMaybuyafewmoreICEvehiclesbeforeswitchingtoanEV

DonotwanttoswitchtoEV

Maybuyonemoreusedinternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehicle

1Electricvehicle.

Source:McKinseyMobilityConsumerPulseSurveys

McKinsey&Company

3

IntenttopurchaseanEVisslightlyhigherinthe

premium-brandsegment,aswellasamongyoungerandmoreprogressiveurbancustomers,whotend

tobeenvironmentallyconscious.ButinterestinEVs

isnowexpandingbeyondthesegroups,and

thenextwaveofbuyersmayincludemoreolder

consumerswithcomparativelylowerbudgets.In

otherwords,moremainstreambuyerscouldfollowthefirstmoverswhoinitiallyadoptedEVs.As

theconsumerbaseshifts,customerexpectationsforEVswillalsoevolveandmanufacturersmust

bepreparedtomeetthem.

ThemajorconcernsofEVbuyersincludebatteryrange,costs,andcharginginfrastructure

Whilealmost80percentofEuropeancarbuyersinoursurveyexpecttogetanEVinthefuture,

22percentremainskepticalaboutthesevehicles.Oursurveysuggeststhatthemainreasons

preventingskepticsfromconsideringEVsinvolve

highpurchaseprices,theinabilitytochargeathome,andconcernaboutrealbatterydriving

range—theactualdrivingrangeforamixoftripsandconditions,comparedwithavehicle’s

advertisedcyclerangebasedontheworldwidelight-vehicletestprocedure(WLTP).

AmongprospectivebuyerswhodonotyetownaBEV,themainconcernsaboutEVsareslightlydifferentfromthosethattheEVskepticshave,especiallyhomechargingaccessbeinglessofaconcern.Highpurchasepricestoppedthelist

(37percent),followedbyinsufficientbatterydrivingrange(36percent),andbatterylifetime(35percent)(Exhibit2).Manyrespondentsarealsoconcerned

aboutincreasesinelectricitypricesandavailabilityofpubliccharginginfrastructure(28percentfor

both).Overall,sustainabilityhadaminorinfluenceonpurchasedecisions.

Thesurveyfindingssuggestthatalongerdriving

rangecouldaccelerateBEVadoptioninEurope,

sincebuyersinthisregionhavehighexpectationsfortherealbatterydrivingrange.Inoursurvey,

consumerswhowouldconsideranEVbuthavenotyetpurchasedonestatethatthedrivingrange

wouldneedtobeabout500kilometersforthemtoswitchfromaninternalcombustionengine(ICE)

vehicletoafullyelectricBEV(Exhibit3).Among

currentBEVowners,expectationsfordrivingrangeareonlyslightlylower,atabout470kilometers.

Aboutthesurvey

The2024McKinseyMobilityConsumerPulseSurveywasconductedonlineinFebruary2024.Itinvolved36,954currentmobilityusers

acrossninemarkets:Australia,Brazil,China,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,Norway,andtheUnitedStates.

IntenttopurchaseanEVisslightly

higherinthepremium-brandsegment,aswellasamongyoungerandmore

progressiveurbancustomers,whotendtobeenvironmentallyconscious.

4

Exhibit2

Topconcernsaboutelectricvehiclesincludeprice,drivingrange,andbatterylifetime.

Concernsaboutbatteryelectricvehicles(BEV),%ofEuropeannon-BEVownerrespondents(n=1,743)

price

Insu代cientdrivingrange

Concernsaboutbatterylifetime

Purchase

37

36

35

Availabilityofpublicchargingstations

Concernsaboutbatterydecommissioning

Concernsaboutbatterysafety

Fearofincreasesin

electricityprices

28

28

21

21

Needtochangetravelpatternsonlongtrips

Cannotchargeathome

Totalcostsof

ownership

20

18

16

Unclearresalevalueduetotechnology

DonotconsiderBEVstobe

verygreen

16

15

Source:McKinseyMobilityConsumerPulseSurvey,Feb2–15,2024

McKinsey&Company

Exhibit3

Prospectivebuyersofelectricvehicleshavehighexpectationsfordrivingrange.

Averageminimumdriving-rangeexpectationforbatteryelectricvehicle,1kilometers

Europeanaverage,byyear

370

356

2019

405

20202021

473

504

20222024

521

526

2024average,bycountry

Europeanaverage504

468

508

ItalyNorwayGermanyFrance

1Averagescalculatedfromrespondentswhowouldconsideranelectricvehiclebuthavenotyetpurchasedone.2019,n=3,951;2020,n=4,743;2021,n=5,785;2022,n=9,542;2024,n=9,951.Italy,2024,n=3,105;Norway,2024,n=2,749;Germany,2024,n=2,457;France,2024,n=1,640.

Source:McKinseyMobilityConsumerPulseSurveys

McKinsey&Company

5

Thesurveyfindingssuggestthat

alongerdrivingrangecouldaccelerateBEVadoptioninEurope.

AlmostallcurrentBEVownersnowhaveashorter

realdrivingrangethantheystatedtheywouldneedbeforetheirvehiclepurchase.Inoursurvey,only

42percentofexistingBEVownersinEuropeare

satisfiedorverysatisfiedwiththeircar’srealdrivingrange;forthosewhowouldconsiderswitchingbacktoICEvehicles,thispercentagefellto30percent.

What’smore,mostofthedissatisfiedrespondentsindicatethattheyarelikelytoswitchtoanICE

vehicle,ratherthansearchforanEVwithagreaterdrivingrange.

Regardingcharginginfrastructure,consumershave

concernsthatgobeyondpublicavailability.Morethan75percentofprospectiveBEVbuyersinoursurveyexpectpublicchargingtimesofunder

30minutestotaketheirremainingbatterypowerfrom20to80percent.

Variedpreferencesforvehiclefeaturesandpurchases

Oursurveyalsolookedatvehiclecharacteristics

andpurchasepreferencesthatareunrelated

toelectrification,andituncoveredsomeimportantdifferencesbetweenpotentialEVbuyersand

thosestickingwithtraditionalICEcars.First,EVbuyersplacehigherimportanceonadvanced-

driver-assistancesystems(ADAS)withincreasingdegreesofautonomy(forexamplehands-off

drivingassistancefeaturesathighwayspeedor

fullyautonomousparkingpilots)andcomprehensive

in-carconnectivityofferings.Thispreference

ischaracteristicofyounger,moretech-enthusedbuyers,andmanycustomersinthissegment

maypreferEVsbecausetheyviewthemashaving

moreinnovativetechnologythantraditionalcars.

Second,25percentofprospectiveEVbuyersshowhighinterestinbuyingtheirnextcaronline.Interestwasgreatestinthepremiumsegment(34percent).

ICEbuyersandtraditionalcaradherentsdo

shareonecharacteristic,however.Inbothgroups,83percentsaythattheywouldnotbuyanEV

withouttakingatestdrive,indicatingthatthisstepremainsacriticalpartofthepurchasejourney.

TheEVtransitionisfullyunderway

TheEVtransitioninEuropeisfullyunderway,andoursurveyfindingshighlightthreetrendsthatmayinfluencefutureadoptionrates:

—awillingnesstoswitchbacktotraditionalICEvehiclesinasmallshareofEVowners

—theemergenceofseveralnewmarketentrants,includingChineseautobrandsandother

foreignOEMs,offeringawiderangeofnewmodelsthatarealreadyattractinginterestamongEuropeancustomers

—thetendencyfornew-EVcarsalestoscalemorequicklythanused-EVsales

AminorityofcurrentEVownerswouldconsiderswitchingbacktoICEvehicles

Whiletheoveralloutlookforelectrificationispositive,oursurveyrevealsthat19percentofcurrentEV

ownersinEuropesaytheyarelikelyorverylikelytoswitchbacktoatraditionalcombustionengine

attheirnextpurchasebecauseoftheircurrentEV

6

ownershipexperience(Exhibit4).Thisisareality

check,butitmustbeconsideredincontext.Globally,29percentofEVownersinoursurveysaytheyare

verylikelytoswitchbacktoanICEvehicleattheir

nextpurchase,soEuropeansarelesslikelytoreverttotraditionalcarsthanpeopleinotherregions.

ThereasonsforswitchingbacktoanICEvehiclearemultilayeredandsomewhatinterlinked.Inour

survey,thetopissuesrelatetothefollowingfactors:

—Totalcostofownership.Today,45percentof

Europeancarownersarekeepingtheircurrentvehiclesforlongerperiodsbecauseoftheir

financialsituation.ForEVowners,40percentindicatethattheyneedtotradedownwith

theirnextvehicleforthesamereason.SurveyrespondentsalsoexpressconcernthatselectedsubsidiesforEVsarebeingreducedor

eliminatedinsomeEuropeanmarkets.OftheEVownerswhoareconsideringaswitchback

toICEvehicles,41percentsaythatthecostofEVownershipistoohigh.(Theirreturnto

ICEvehiclescouldoccurshortly,sincetheyareclosertobuyingtheirnextvehiclethanother

respondents,and40percentareplanningtopurchaseavehiclein2024.)Iftheydo,they

mayfindthattheresidualvalueoftheircurrentEVislowerthanexpectedandthatdemand

forusedEVsisrelativelylowcomparedwiththatfortraditionalcars.

—Underdevelopedpubliccharginginfrastructure.Inoursurvey,40percentofcurrentBEV

ownersinEuropestatethatthenumberofpublicEVchargepointsisinsufficient.Onlyabout

10percentofBEVownersfeelthatthecurrent

charginginfrastructureisreadytomeetfuture

demand;anadditional50percentfeelthatitcanmeetcurrentneedsbutbelievethattherewill

notbeenoughpublicchargingstationsifmoreEVshittheroad.

—Impactonlong-distancetravel.Inoursurvey,29percentofrespondentssaytheyare

concernedabouttheimpactofchargingonlonger-distancetrips.Ingeneral,longertripsinafullbatteryEVrequireownerstochangetheirtravelpatternsslightly,whichmayseemdisruptiveorstressful;somemayhaveto

beginplanningtheirchargingstopsbeforeatripbegins,especiallyonunknownroutes.SomeEVownersfeelthatsearchingfor

freeandworkingchargepointsisdisruptive,

Exhibit4

NineteenpercentofEuropeanelectric-vehicleownerssaytheyarelikelyorverylikelytoswitchbacktoatraditionalcombustionenginevehicle.

Shareofcurrentelectric-vehicleownersreportingthattheyarelikelyorverylikelytoswitchbacktoaninternalcombustionenginevehicleinthefuture,bycountry,%

Globalaverage

(n=8,993)

29

Europeanaverage

(n=4,348)

19

Germany

(n=968)

24

France

(n=875)

18

Norway

(n=1,519)

18

Italy

(n=986)

15

Source:McKinseyMobilityConsumerPulseSurvey,Feb2–15,2024

McKinsey&Company

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AquarterofprospectiveEVbuyers

showhighinterestinbuyingtheirnextcaronline.

with26percentreportingthatthismakestravelmorestressful.Formillennialsandownerswith

children,theneedtofindchargepoints,combinedwithpotentialalterationstolongtravelroutes,

mayfeelparticularlyburdensome.Thesegroups

maythereforebemorelikelytoconsiderswitchingbacktoanICEvehicle.

Whenaskedwhatvaluestheyseekinacar,EV

ownerswhoconsiderswitchingbacktoICEvehiclesplacemorevalueonhavingpracticalvehiclesthat

allowthemgreaterindependencewhenplanningroutes.Thesefactorsmayoutweighthepositive

ecologicalbenefitsofEVs.Infact,onlyabouthalfofthosewhoconsiderswitchingbacktoICEvehiclesstatethatsustainabilityconcernsareguidingtheirbehavior,comparedwithwellover60percentofEVownerswhointendtostaywithelectrictechnology.EVownerswhoconsiderreturningtotraditional

carsarealsothreetimesmorelikelytostatethatvehicleaccelerationanddriverperformancedidnotmeetexpectations,comparedwiththosewhodonotplantoswitchback.

NewBEVmarketentrantsareattractingcustomerinterest

NewplayersareenteringEuropeanEVmarkets.

Inthepastthreeyearsalone,morethan35new

OEMshavestartedsellingbatteryelectricvehiclesinEurope,andmanymorehaveannounced

market-entryplans.Intotal,OEMshaveannouncedthatover400newEVmodelswillhitthe

European

market

overthenextthreeyears.Manynewmarket

entrantshaveestablishedautobrandsinAsiaorNorthAmerica,andseveralhomegrownChinesebrandshavealsoenteredthemarketrecently.

Prospectivebuyersareincreasinglyconsidering

non-Europeanbrands,andoursurveyshowsthatEVownersarebroadeningtheirconsideredsetof

brandsforpurchase.EuropeanbrandssuchasBMW,Mercedes-Benz,Renault,andVolkswagenarestillthemostpopular,with51percentofEVowners

statingthattheyarelikelytopurchasefromthem.SoutheasternAsianbrandssuchasHyundai,KIA,

andToyotawereinsecondplacewith39percent,followedbyAmericanbrandssuchasCadillac,

Rivian,andTesla(30percent)andChinesebrandssuchasBYD,LiAuto,NIO,andXpeng(27percent).

ThenewentrantsofferBEVmodelsinvarious

vehiclesegments,andmanycatertotheaverage

potentialEVbuyer’sneedformorerealdriving

rangeandfastercharging.Someofthenewmodelsalsoofferinnovativecarfeatures,includingthose

thatenhanceinteriorcomfort,entertainment,andin-cardigitalexperiences.Ifconsumersviewthe

newbrandspositivelyandadoptthem,domesticautobrandscouldfacechallenges.

Customers’willingnesstobuyanemergingbranddiffersbycountryandsegment(Exhibit5).Inthe

premium-brandsegment,forinstance,33percentofEuropeanrespondentsconsideringEVsstate

thattheywouldbeopentopurchasinga

Chinese

brand

inthefuture.GiventheEuropeanUnion’srecentdecisiontoimposetariffsonimportedEVsfromChina,itisstilluncertainhowsuccessful

suchnewEVbrandswillbeinEurope.

InsightsonChinesebrands

ComparedwithAmericanbrandsandotherAsianbrands,ChineseOEMshaverelativelylowname

8

Exhibit5

Europeansarewillingtoconsiderelectric-vehiclebrandsfrommultipleregions.

Shareofprospectiveelectric-vehicle(EV)buyersinEuropeconsideringanEVbrandforfuturepurchase,bybrandregion,%

BrandregionEurope

SoutheasternAsiaNorthAmerica

China

Europeanaverage

(n=9,951)

51

39

30

27

France

(n=1,640)

46

33

24

24

Italy

(n=3,105)

Norway

(n=2,749)

Germany

54

54

35

47

29

32

27

35

(n=2,457)

49

37

23

33

Source:McKinseyMobilityConsumerPulseSurvey,Feb2–15,2024

McKinsey&Company

recognitioninEurope.Inoursurvey,55to80percentofEuropeanrespondentshadneverheardofthem.Consumerswhoweremorelikelytoknowabout

ChinesebrandsincludedexistingEVowners,youngerpeople,anddriversofpremiumcars.Wedecided

toinvestigatethesebrandsmorethoroughlyby

conductinginterviewswithmorethan500Europeancustomersduringtheirvisitstoacarclinicearlier

thisyear;weaskedabouttenChineseEVmodels.

Thisallowedustogatherqualitativefeedback

frompotentialEVbuyersastheyevaluatedChineseEVmodels.Wealsogainedinsightsabouttheir

viewsonotherbrandsintheprocess.

BothoursurveyandcarclinicresearchsuggestthatEuropeanconsumerperceptionsofChinesebrandsareoftendifferentfromtheirperceptionsofdomesticbrands.Forinstance,consumersviewdomestic

brandswithprideandconsiderthemtobesafe,welldesigned,highquality,comfortable,andtrustworthy.Consumersalsovaluetheestablisheddealerand

servicenetworksfordomesticbrands,asthey

provideconvenientcustomerproximity.IfcustomersarepurchasinganEVforthefirsttime,theymight

feelmoreconfidentgoingwithaknownbrandfrom

anestablisheddomesticOEM,especiallyif

theyhaveexperiencewithICEvehiclesfromthesamecompany.

Incontrast,surveyrespondentstendtobeskepticalaboutproductqualityanddatasecurityfornew

marketentrantbrandsfromChina,althoughtheydoperceivethemasofferinggoodvalueforthemoney.Thecustomersweinterviewedatcarclinicshad

similarconcernsaboutChinesebrands,butafter

seeingthevehiclesinperson,theywerealso

impressedbytheirinnovativefeaturesand

cutting-edgetechnologies,suchascomfortableinteriors,voiceassistants’conversational

intelligence,andhigh-endmultimediaofferingswithadvancedsoundanddisplays.Asmore

EuropeanconsumersgetdirectexperiencewithChinesebrands,theycoulddevelophigher

expectationsforthein-vehicleexperience,

includingcomfortableseatingandsmart-vehiclefeatures,inallcars.ThosewhopurchaseEVs

mayparticularlyappreciatein-vehicletechnologiesbecausetheymayoftenusethemwhentheir

vehiclesarecharging.

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Oursurveyalsoshowedthatconsumershad

specificpriceexpectationsforEVs,whichcouldaffecttheiradoptionrates.WithChinesebrands,forinstance,consumersgenerallyexpectthe

purchasepricetobelowerthanthatofsimilar

offeringsfromdomesticbrands.Inoursurvey,abouthalfofEuropeanrespondentssaythattheywould

onlyconsiderpurchasingaChineseEVifitspricewasatleast15percentbelowthatofasimilar

domesticmodel.RoughlyaquarterofEuropean

respondentssaytheywouldseekapriceadvantageofupto10percent,andonly25percentwould

notrequireapriceadvantage.

Customerviewsofusedelectricvehicles

Theused-carmarketisanotherpieceinthechain

forfurthersustainedEVadoptionthroughoutEurope.WhileEVsaccountedformorethan15percentof

new-carsalesinthisregionin2023,theyrepresentedlessthan2percentofused-carsales.

Inoursurvey,31percentofprospectiveEVbuyerssaytheyarelikelyorverylikelytoconsiderausedEVfortheirnextvehiclepurchase—upfromabout25percentinDecember2021(Exhibit6).For

thosecustomersstillskepticalaboutEVs,themainconcern—citedby49percentofrespondents—was

unclearbatterydegradationoveravehicle’slifetime.Otherconcernsrelatetohighprices(33percent),

unclearmaintenanceandrepairavailability

(26percent),andfearofmissingoutonthelatestEVtechnology(13percent).

Manyrespondentsalsociteunclearresalevalue

asanissue—anunderstandablefinding,givenhowrapidlyEVtechnologyisevolving.Inoursurvey,

20percentofBEVownerssaytheyareconcernedaboutretailvalue,comparedwithonly10percentofpros