機(jī)械行業(yè)2024年投資策略分析報告：周期向上,資產(chǎn)出海低空經(jīng)濟(jì)人形機(jī)器人

123

1000080006000400020000150100507,79093全球油氣行業(yè)上游資本開支(億美元)WTI原油均價(美元/桶)7,310986,95094955,860956215855,8305,65073795,1104,730

4,830683,8004,490514,340434,330493,28039655702010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024E4

:/18001600140012001000800BP:WTI/2001501005050053035132837611215812016068138661411544926947181463195310212012115722618413416616316816716017516720589600192123812220109123169208154400155166173244263230244235240230196-502211622001901210201620172018201920202021202220232024E5

全球經(jīng)濟(jì)情況油氣消費需求油氣價格油服行業(yè)景氣度提升油價上漲油服開采公司資本開支增加設(shè)備商訂單兌現(xiàn)設(shè)備商采購專用件設(shè)備商業(yè)績兌現(xiàn)國際政治、大國能源戰(zhàn)略、美元匯率、國際資本等因素傳導(dǎo)至資本開支0.5-1年油氣供給情況傳導(dǎo)至設(shè)備公司2-2.5年6

設(shè)備份額專用件9%45%其他資本開支91%7

8

9

10

EPS2025EPE2025E6.622024/7/912.182024E1.342026E2024E9.092026E688377.SH603699.SH002353.SZ1.841.353.47-1.60--10.41-16.661.1414.6111.1212.349.4532.802.9511

12

250020001500100050033003000270024002100180015001200900----013

30025020015010050302520151050-5-10-15-20014

8765432107.14.43.83.73.53.53.1332.82.82.312.22011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023全球集裝箱年產(chǎn)量（百萬TEU）15

120001000080006000400020000TEUTEU50000450004000035000300002500020000150001000050001.951.9WCI-1.851.81.751.701.65201920202021202220232019202020212022202316

2021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1營業(yè)收入（億元）450.6454.5355.6365.7370.1324.0266.5339.2345.5340.2324.43yoy86.5%76.3048.7%60.323.2%35.4-17.5%32.1-17.9%33.7-28.7%9.6-25.1%8.3-7.2%18.1-6.6%21.35.0%19.021.7%50.0干貨箱銷量（萬TEU）yoy222.5%47.9%-21.5%-53.8%-55.9%-84.1%-76.7%-43.8%-36.6%77.1%150%17

收盤價2024/7/98.40EPS（元）2025EPE代碼000039.SZ公司2024E2026E2024E2025E10.502026E0.450.800.9818.678.5718

$/day60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000019數(shù)據(jù)：Clarksons、證券研究

20

60504030201001000009000080000700006000050000400003000020000100000DWT/1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

20222008/1/42011/1/42014/1/42017/1/42020/1/42023/1/421

1500001000005000001501005030/DWT19.2

19.718.3

18.5

18.3

18.5

18.717.3

17.5

17.6

17.720

16.410002011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

20221990/1/51996/1/52002/1/52008/1/52014/1/5LNG2020/1/519962001200620112016202120DWT3002001000LNG151050221996/1/5

2000/1/5

2004/1/5

2008/1/5

2012/1/5

2016/1/5

2020/1/51996200020042008201220162020

160001400012000100008000600040002000080%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2013201420152016201720182019202020212022

20231-102013201420152016201720182019202020212022

20231-102324

:::::::::::180,000,000160,000,000140,000,000120,000,000100,000,00080,000,00060,000,00040,000,00020,000,0000180,000,000160,000,000140,000,000120,000,000100,000,00080,000,00060,000,00040,000,00020,000,000030%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%25

161412108642026

6045%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%504030201000%202020212022202327

3,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050020181614121086420028

成屋銷售約占北美住房市場的90%成屋銷售環(huán)比大幅改善，同比降幅收窄:::%%800700600500400300200100060%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%100%80%60%40%20%0%29

30%987654321025020015010050030

40%30%20%10%0%3-4年3-4年3-4年3-4年3-4年3-4年3-4年-10%-20%-30%31:::::::108:302520151040%30%20%10%0%6-10%-20%-30%4%%%:::::30%3002001000%::20%10%0%-100-10%-20%32沃爾瑪庫存同步下行，銷售同比上行亞馬遜庫存同步下行，銷售同比上行60%40%20%0%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-10%家得寶庫存同比持平，但高于銷售增速勞氏庫存、銷售跌幅相近40%50%40%30%20%10%0%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-10%-20%33

PE2024/7/926.022024E1.730.631.430.132025E2.090.961.660.232026E2.431.170.000.302024E15.0423.689.082025E12.4515.547.832026E10.7112.75-002444.SZ301260.SZ605259.SH2285.HK14.92---12.9919.86152.7786.3566.2034

2023年我國工業(yè)縫紉機(jī)產(chǎn)量占比60%2023年我國工業(yè)縫紉機(jī)產(chǎn)量560萬臺/-11%2023年縫制機(jī)械規(guī)模以上企業(yè)營收約286億元yoyyoy12000.60.50.40.30.20.104003503002502001501005037250%40%30%20%10%0%342100047%630325324316100033%700286840275265800

72469720%40%6815605606004002000526-2%-6%-0.1-11%-0.260%-17%-23%-0.3-0.4-0.5-10%-20%-37%02014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

20232016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

202335

yoyyoyyoyPPI::yoyyoy25%20%15%10%5%140120100800%10.80.60.40.20-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%60400%20-0.2-0.4-0.60-5%-10%36

yoyyoy2024

1-4yoy40.035.030.025.020.015.010.05.00.40.30.20.1080%60%40%20%0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%23.1%34.331.528.924.624.923.923.623.322.122.522.120.118.75.7%0.5%-20%-40%-60%0.0%-0.1-0.2-5.0%-10.0%0.0-4.3%-6.0%37-8.4%

70605040302010060.5455.0252.9441.5236.0835.2120182019202020212022202338

%%%YOYYOY9500%30%25%20%15%10%5%140001200010000800060004000200000.60.50.40.30.20.1090%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%79%1200075%74%74%72%24%72%71%110001050070005000

500024%5%19%19%7%17%9%17%11%14%-0.1-0.2-0.311%5006507008002%4%3004004000%2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021201520162017201820192020202139

40數(shù)據(jù)：Wind、證券研究

YoY%YoY

%100,000300%250%200%150%100%50%90,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-0%-50%-100%41

挖機(jī)內(nèi)銷（萬臺）挖機(jī)外銷（萬臺）內(nèi)銷YoY（%，右軸）外銷YoY（%，右軸）403530252015105120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%02006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024E

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E42

yoyyoyyoy-4.4%yoy-25.3%2.6%17.0%34.1%27.9%0.9%-4.8%4.8%yoyyoy53.8%127.0%111.4%66.9%78.4%85.4%33.5%17.6%-6.6%5.3%12.6%0.2%47.3%3.0%-5.1%4.6%2023011044321450255781877216809157661260613105142831455714924166981237612608249801882217824-33.1%-12.4%-31.0%-23.5%-18.5%-24.1%-29.7%-27.5%-32.6%-29.0%-37.0%-1.0%18.5%-41.2%-2.3%0.3%6.0%343711492138999513659260985112566962636769748476255421583715188107828518-58.5%-32.6%-47.7%-40.7%-45.9%-44.7%-44.7%-37.7%-40.5%-40.4%-48.0%24.0%57.7%-49.2%9.3%700699581167992591021796687494743680207788744090736955677197928040930620230120230220230320230420230520230620230720230820230920231020231120231220240120240220240320240427844515752158775132447135543699367532663536326038143397598649331924338958874510375830252598262325832289238223172547223744353503-39.2%-13.2%4.1%26.5%15.8%-17.2%-13.9%0.3%10.3%16.8%34.1%26.3%30.9%-36.4%-26.3%-22.3%86011261634136713741446956107610929771154943126711601551143020230220230320230420230520230620230720230820230920231020231120231220240120240220240320240420240534.0%10.9%8.9%21.0%-0.7%-13.8%-17.2%-24.8%-14.9%-19.8%-15.3%-0.7%-32.0%-16.2%-13.2%-8.9%4.7%13.1%26.2%17.5%35.9%-26.9%-21.8%-16.1%13.3%29.2%43202197.0%38.2%61.3%54.5%55.7%104.3%202260.0%24.9%72.8%73.0%83.1%54.8%2023-4.0%11.5%41.6%35.1%62.4%23.9%130.4%16%24M1-2-19.1%24M1-3-17.9%24M1-4-16.7%200%150%100%50%-5.1%22.2%21.3%39.9%-6.8%57.8%-16.4%34.5%11.1%25.1%21.7%0.1%9.9%7.8%16.5%4.1%67.5%-8.9%65.1%1.1%0.3%8.4%10.3%8.5%0.6%31.7%-10.1%73.8%-0.3%22.1%21.1%0%68.3%28.0%93.2%140.4%73.8%25.1%12.6%12.7%63.5%14.5%56.0%-6.2%7.2%-50%22.1%24.9%12.1%65%yoy70%60%50%40%30%20%10%yoy5045403530252015105600500400300200100062.3%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%37%30%30.2%18%7.17%11%8%5%1%

1%9.6%2023-2%-4%-3%-6%-6%0%-5.6%20200-10%-10%201920212022數(shù)據(jù)：中國工程機(jī)械協(xié)會、證券研究

/%/%1906.3%70702.3%65401.3%70403.6%60403.6%2120.2%7300064011001230920%%%%%%%%%%%%%%10.9%8010.2%3510.9%354.9%1051.7%820.6%3053515.0%206.5%456.5%11.4%438.9%373.3%407705002.6%5.8%208.6%307.4%488.0%55516004554601.3%900.3%126.5%9510.4%8812.0%21/601060527013.2%42019.8%3252.6%1629.0%3738.3%3166.0%2.0%1552.9%70006.0%4.6%2.3%7.1%45/20244yoy5.6%2024

1-4121960.8yoy20243yoy2023348867.4yoy2023100.0%2024

1-4100.0%32938.93713.3988.27.4%28588.93173.1937.94.5%17.6%7.7%2.4%10313.44081.7-26.0%-11.8%30.3%26.5%-1.3%2.7%-16.7%-22.7%67.1%18.1%-9.8%-2.6%13.6%43101.714517.529138.728452.687041.649402.1153695.012.4%4.2%8.5%3.3%-23.7%4.4%4.6%2625.62974.18469.15157.014168.810732.510420.229187.517761.557225.53463.72772.87915.84978.115636.233.1%12.4%28.3%6.9%8.4%8.8%40.6%-0.9%10.5%6.5%8.2%8.5%24.9%14.2%44.1%23.9%14.6%46.9%19.1%13.5%4069.43548.15853.54.3%5.4%14581.216600.821242.43.6%40.3%13.9%1889.71196.33001.0-52.9%-57.0%-49.0%40313.142318.357512.05.9%67.9%-3.2%11.6%12.1%16.5%12.0%13.6%17.4%+12.6%3036.53312.17.5%7535.4-31.7%-6.9%1564.5724.1-15.5%-19.9%34068.537639.67.5%9.8%6.2%9.4%-14.7%11426.074.2%10.8%864.465.4%2151.6-3.6%253.8-29.0%6177.92.2%1.8%1.8%976.7800.31335.51336.1423.31103.3828.075.8-15.9%4.4%4363.12692.75026.46342.41760.73054.93489.8259.6-10.3%-2.3%2.6%961.1404.1703.4672.6180.9130.8458.248.6-5.6%-2.2%14268.68274.715301.817923.55957.17510.712659.91107.1-1.0%-3.4%28.4%-8.7%2.5%4.1%2.4%4.4%5.1%1.7%2.2%3.6%0.3%3.6%2.2%4.1%5.2%1.4%2.5%2.9%0.2%13.0%-16.6%-23.8%78.5%-25.1%-22.9%-20.4%-12.6%-23.4%35.9%-27.0%-28.4%7.4%-8.4%51.2%-14.6%-18.2%51.0%5.8%-9.1%46

()YoY50004500400035003000250020001500100050040.56%40%800700600500400300200100023.38%13.69%24.62%13.58%18.60%21.51%20%19.89%2.20%10.…16.13%-2.45%5.55%0%-2.26%-16.35%-0.90%2434-5.53%-12.37%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%-120%2327

2306-35.68%1820

186020271915184016791630

15901620151814161330

13001219108098886902004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

202347

48

EPSPE2024/7/915.306.562024E0.710.650.592.143.741.471.790.662025E0.920.770.722.544.371.752.050.892026E1.13-2024E21.5510.0912.5819.6914.2612.4810.6416.002025E16.638.522026E13.54-600031.SH000425.SZ000157.SZ601100.SH603338.SH603298.SH600761.SH000528.SZ7.420.872.89-10.3116.5912.2110.499.298.5314.58-42.1453.3518.3519.0410.562.052.321.178.958.219.0311.87-4950

億航智能中國小鵬匯天中國峰飛航空中國Joby

AviationVOLANT美國2021VE2S電動有人6Lilium德國所屬國家布局時間美國2021Joby

S4電動無人42014EH216-S電動2020陸地航母電動2017盛世龍電動2015Lilium

Jet電動代表產(chǎn)品動力模式操作模式無人有人無人有人載客量（位）速度（km/h）24-556<=130200200330235<=30051

我國民用無人機(jī)市場規(guī)模（億元）我國軍用無人機(jī)市場規(guī)模（億元）低空經(jīng)濟(jì)市場規(guī)模（億元）yoy我國無人機(jī)整體市場規(guī)模yoy12000100008000600040002000040%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%1064514001200100080060040020000.4534%0.433%40%34%90859228%30%0.350.334%808627%670324%0.250.25060202324%24%753781117419%29129%684369790.1564778590.10.050599554097%492941981560%202120222024E2025E2026E2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

202152

53

2021.012022.122023.052023.032023.102022-20352025202.2023—20252025102025

eVTOLeVTOL2023.102023.1120352023-20352023.122023.1250%2023.122024.012024.022023.122024.031eVTOL202722024.0320302024-2030

EPSPE2025E17.9314.9221.76-2024/7/912.5511.7912.8425.9410.4411.682024E0.540.620.49-2025E0.700.790.59-2026E0.870.96-2024E23.2419.0226.20-2026E14.4312.28-002967.SZ603308.SH002085.SZ688070.SH001696.SZ600580.SH-------0.560.890.631.030.711.1818.6413.1216.5711.3414.709.9056

57

58

59

15%35%10%15%25%60

15%7%8%48%22%61

,6~1590%1/3,/6000r/min2m/s10000rad/s21μm,10262

0.9%0.9%9.4%RollvisGSA54%28.0%RexrothEWELLIX9.4%9.4%14.0%46%CR528.0%CMC63國家和地區(qū)德國主要產(chǎn)品應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域Rexroth上銀科技五洲新春長盛軸承GSA直線導(dǎo)軌、滾珠/軋制滾柱絲杠、電動缸、直線運動模組汽車-線性傳動技術(shù)中國臺灣

滾珠絲杠、直線導(dǎo)軌、軸承、末端效應(yīng)器汽車-轉(zhuǎn)向系統(tǒng)中國中國瑞士瑞士滾珠絲杠、軸承及配件、精密機(jī)械及零件滾珠絲杠、潤滑軸承汽車-轉(zhuǎn)向/駐車/電子剎車等汽車、軍工、數(shù)控機(jī)床等航空航天、鋼鐵冶金、軍工航空航天、鋼鐵冶金、軍工直徑范圍5-245mm、導(dǎo)程范圍0.5-50mm

研磨級滾柱絲杠直徑范圍5-245mm、導(dǎo)程范圍0.1-50mm

研磨級滾柱絲杠Rollvis直線導(dǎo)向類（成型/精密導(dǎo)軌、直線軸承）、滾珠/滾柱絲

醫(yī)療設(shè)備、自動化生產(chǎn)線、非道路機(jī)杠、電動缸、直線模組

械和其他通用設(shè)備精密滾珠絲杠副、精密滾動直線導(dǎo)軌副、高速精密電主軸

數(shù)控機(jī)床、軍工設(shè)備、核電裝備、航Ewellix瑞典中國博特精工精密機(jī)械主軸單元、X-Y

精密雙坐標(biāo)工作臺、精密主軸等高精度滾柱絲杠副、大型滾珠絲杠副、滾動導(dǎo)軌副行星滾柱絲杠、電動缸空航天等數(shù)控機(jī)床南京工藝新劍傳動中國中國汽車、軌道交通、機(jī)器人數(shù)控機(jī)床、自動化裝備、機(jī)器人、新能源汽車、醫(yī)療器械等行業(yè)數(shù)控機(jī)床、自動化裝備、機(jī)器人等汽車、機(jī)器人等貝斯特中國高精度滾珠/滾柱絲杠副、高精度滾動導(dǎo)軌副等恒立液壓五洲新春中國中國滾珠絲桿、重載滾珠絲桿、行星滾柱絲桿電動缸等絲杠螺母軸承組件、滾珠絲杠等64EPSPE收盤價（2024/7/9）核心部件公司代碼公司名稱評級2024E

2025E

2026E

2024E

2025E

2026E002050.SZ601689.SH603728.SH300354.SZ603662.SH688322.SH688279.SH002896.SZ603667.SH301368.SZ603009.SH601100.SH300580.SZ300718.SZ603040.SH000837.SZ688577.SH002520.SZ003025.SZ300809.SZ19.2057.2337.6432.1022.5525.5199.6126.4714.8842.5116.5242.1414.0212.7618.327.010.962.470.511.081.30-0.362.330.630.71-1.153.250.711.421.55-0.042.970.770.98-1.344.000.851.811.810.273.730.93-20.0023.1773.8029.7217.3516.70

14.3317.61

14.3153.01

44.2822.61

17.7314.55

12.46---執(zhí)行器和電機(jī)傳感器-----UW-70.86

-637.75

94.48驅(qū)控芯片減速器42.7542.0220.96-33.54

26.7134.38

28.4615.18------0.202.140.671.041.550.140.590.06-0.302.540.861.301.840.210.830.13-0.452.891.09-82.6019.6920.9312.2711.8250.0755.9260.83-55.07

36.7116.59

14.5816.30

12.86絲杠類設(shè)備類9.829.96-2.210.301.10-8.29-33.38

23.3739.75

29.9932.993.65----28.08---11.7019.09-0.590.720.8732.3626.51

21.946566

50045040035030025020015010050100%80%60%40%20%0%20018016014012010080120%100%80%60%40%20%0%yoy60-20%-40%40-20%-40%0200PCPC67yoyyoy

yoy30002500200015001000500400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%MateXs

2Watch4ProMagic

V2Magic

Vs214ProiPhone15

Pro&ProMaxAppleWatch

Ultra&Ultra2OPPOFindN2Galaxy

S24

UltraGalaxy

Warch5

Pro0%OPPO0-50%68

AIAIAIPixel

8Gemini//AI//iPhone15

Pro&ProMaxGalaxy

S24Pura70Apple

IntelligenceGPT-4o/AISiri/AI/AI///“Genmoji”Gemini/////AI////Magic

6////14UltraMiLM///AIOPPOvivoFindX7AIX100////21

PROFlyme

AlAI/AIAI/AI/AIAce

3V/69

AIPC2024Captions

AI520Build

2024Copilot+PCAI

PCSnapdragon

XElite

XPlusAIRecall

Cocreator

Live2024622AI

HubX

EliteZen5IntelCOMPUTEX

2024COMPUTEX

2024CES2024AI

PC

Lunar

LakeAI

PCGPU

NPUCopilot

50

TOPS

AITensorRT-LLM

AIAMDAMDZen5AIRyzenAI