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文檔簡(jiǎn)介

ThinkAhead

TheAssociationof

Accountantsand

Financialprofessionals

inBusiness

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2024

2

Executivesummary

AccountantsandCFOsbecomemorepessimisticonglobaleconomicprospectsinQ3.

Confidenceamongaccountantsand

chieffinancialofficers(CFOs)declines.

TheACCAandIMAGlobalEconomic

ConditionsSurvey(GECS)suggeststhat

globalconfidenceamongaccountantsandfinanceprofessionalsdeclinedmoderatelyinQ3.ItisnowatitslowestsinceQ42023andslightlybelowitshistoricalaverage.1

Therewasalsoamoderatedeclineinthe

forward-lookingNewOrdersIndex,and

modestfallsintheCapitalExpenditure

andEmploymentindices(seeChart1).

Themessagecomingfromtheglobal

CFOsinourpanelwasalsomorecautious.ConfidenceamongCFOsfellmoderately,andisnowbelowitshistoricalaverage,

andtherewasasharpdeteriorationintheirassessmentofneworders(see

Chart15

).

SomerecoveryinconfidenceinNorth

America,butlargefallsinAsiaPacificandWesternEurope.ConfidenceimprovedinNorthAmerica(see

Chart2

),althoughit

recoupedlessthanhalfofitsQ2fall,and

thekeyindicatorsfortheregionlookweakbyhistoricalstandards.GrowthintheU.S.

economyislikelytoslowovercoming

quarters,butasoftlandinglooksthe

mostlikelyscenario.TherewasamarkeddeclineinconfidenceinAsiaPacific,

erasingmostofthegainsmadeearlierin2024.Concernsaboutthecontinued

weaknessoftheChineseeconomymayhaveweighedonsentiment,aswellas

fearsabouttheriskofaU.S.recession.

Thesurveywascompletedbeforethe

Chineseauthoritiesannouncedapivot

toamoreaggressivepolicystimulus.

AsharpdeclineinconfidenceintheUK

weighedheavilyontheindexforWesternEurope,amidconcernsaboutpredicted

taxrisesintheupcomingBudget.

Costconcernsremainelevated,but

indicatorsofcorporatestressarestillnotconcerning.Theproportionofrespondentsreportingincreasedoperatingcostsremainselevatedbyhistoricalstandardsinmost

regions(see

Chart5

),suggestingcentralbanksneedtoproceedquitecautiously

withmonetaryeasing,particularlygiven

eventsintheMiddleEast.Butconcerns

thatcustomersand/orsupplierscouldgo

outofbusinessremainclosetohistorical

averagesandtheproportionofglobalfirmshavingproblemsaccessingfinancehas

movedloweramideasingglobalfinancialconditions(see

Charts7and8

).

Theglobalriskssectionaskedaccountantstoranktheirtopthreeriskpriorities.

Regulatorychangewasthetopconcernforthesecondquarterrunningforrespondentsinfinancialservices,whiletheeconomy

remainedwelloutinfrontforthoseinthe

corporatesector.Bothpublicsectorentitiesandsmallandmedium-sizedpractices

(SMPs)putcybersecurityastheirtoppriority,andforthefirsttimesincetherisksurvey

started,climatechangeclaimedatopthreespot,withthepublicsectorplacingitthird.Anotherfirst-everwasWesternEurope

beingtheonlyregiontoranktalentscarcityasitshighestriskpriority.

GECSsurveypointstosomeslowingin

globalgrowthinQ3.Theglobaleconomyhasbeenquiteresilientsofarin2024,

butthelatestsurveyofaccountantspointstosomeeasingingrowthatthecurrent

juncture.Onapositivenote,theincreasedpolicystimulusshouldboosttheChineseeconomyoverthecomingmonthsand

quarters,andthemovetoratecutsby

theU.S.FederalReserve,andmanyothercentralbanks,willincreasinglysupport

globalactivity.Thatsaid,geopolitical

risksareveryelevated,withtheconflictintheMiddleEastescalating.Inadditiontopotentiallyweighingonconfidence,

anyfurtherspikeinoilpriceswould

clearlybeproblematicforcentralbanks

andconsumers.Meanwhile,significant

uncertaintyabouttheupcomingU.S.

electioncouldincreasecorporatecaution.

ConfidenceamongglobalaccountantsdeclinedinQ3toitslowestsinceQ42023.

CHART1:GECSglobalindicatorsIndex

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndexSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

1Themedianisusedtocalculatetheaverages.

3

1.Globalandregionalanalysis

TherewassomerecoveryinconfidenceinNorthAmerica,butasharpfallinAsiaPacific.

Therewasawidedivergenceinthe

regionalchangesinconfidenceinQ3

(seeChart2).Thelargestrisewasinthe

MiddleEast,andthereweredecentgainsinSouthAsiaandNorthAmerica.The

improvementinthelatterwasdrivenby

quitealargeriseinU.S.confidenceafter

ahugefallpreviously.Whilelessthanhalfofthepreviousdeclinewasrecouped,it

wouldsuggestthatfearsaboutapotentialU.S.recessionmayhaveeasedsomewhat.Thatsaid,theotherkeyindicatorslook

consistentwithaslowingeconomy.

Meanwhile,therewasahugedeclinein

confidenceinAsiaPacific,wipingoutmostofthegainsmadeearlierin2024.This

mayreflectgrowingconcernsabouttheweaknessoftheChineseeconomy,fears

Confidencefellsharplyin

AsiaPacificinQ3andregisteredquitealargedeclineinWestern

Europe.TherewassomeimprovementinNorthAmericaafterthehugefallinQ2.

TheGlobalNewOrdersIndex declinedmoderatelyinQ3, drivenbyfallsinthekeyAsiaPacific,NorthAmericaandWesternEuroperegions.

abouttheriskofahardlandingfortheU.S.economy,andtherecentweakeningintheglobalmanufacturingsector.Thesurvey

wascarriedoutbeforetheannouncementofamoreaggressivepolicystimulusby

theChineseauthorities.Therewasalso

quiteamaterialdeclineinconfidencein

WesternEurope,drivenbyaverysharp

fallintheUK.Concernsabouttaxrises

intheupcomingBudgetandotherpolicy

changesappeartohavebeenakeyfactor.

ConfidenceismoderatelybelowitshistoricalaverageinNorthAmerica,

WesternEurope,andAfrica,andvery

slightlylowerinAsiaPacific.ConfidenceissignificantlyaboveaverageintheMiddleEast,andmeaningfullysoinSouthAsia.

TheGlobalNewOrdersIndexdeclinedmoderatelyinthelatestquarter(see

Chart3).ItisnowatitslowestsinceQ4

2020,albeitonlyslightlybelowitsaverageoverthesurvey’shistory.Thedeclinesin

orderswerequitebroad-basedacrossregions.ThelargestfallsoccurredinthekeyregionsofWesternEurope,North

America,andAsiaPacific,withmore

modestdeclinesinAfricaandtheMiddle

East.BuckingthetrendwasSouthAsia,

withasmallrise.Comparedwiththeir

history,newordersaremeaningfullybelowaverageinNorthAmericaandWestern

Europe,butaboveaveragebyvarying

degreesinAsiaPacific,Africa,SouthAsia,andtheMiddleEast.

CHART2:Confidence–changeoverthepastquarter/year,byregion

MiddleEast

SouthAsia

NorthAmerica

Africa

Global

WesternEuropeAsiaPacific

-30-20-1001020

Indexpoints

ConfidenceoverthepastquarterConfidenceoverthepastyear

Source:ACCA/IMA(2023–24)

CHART3:GECSOrders–changeoverthepastquarter/year,byregion

SouthAsia

MiddleEast

Africa

Global

AsiaPacific

NorthAmerica

WesternEurope

-10-5051015

Indexpoints

OrdersoverthepastquarterOrdersoverthepastyear

Source:ACCA/IMA(2023–24)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2024

4

Theproportionofglobalrespondentsreporting‘increasedcosts’waslargelyunchangedinQ3butremainselevatedbyhistoricalstandards(seeChart4).

Attheregionallevel,costpressures

increasedmateriallyinWesternEurope

(drivenbyaverysignificantriseintheUK),

roseslightlyintheMiddleEast,and

werelargelyunchangedinAsiaPacific.

CostpressuresfellverysharplyinSouthAsia,andtoamuchlesserextentinAfricaandNorthAmerica.

CostpressuresremainelevatedbyhistoricalstandardsinWesternEurope,Africa,Asia

Pacific,andNorthAmerica(seeChart5),suggestingthatcentralbanksenacting,orcontemplating,monetaryeasinginthose

regionsneedtotreadsomewhatcarefully.CostpressuresarearoundtheirhistoricalaveragesintheMiddleEastandSouth

Asia.ConcernsaboutcostsamongCFOsdeclinedmeaningfullyversusthepreviousquarter(seeChart6),butover60%are

stillreportingincreasedoperatingcostscomparedwithahistoricalaverageof

under50%.

Theproportionofrespondentsreportingincreasedoperating costsremainedelevatedbyhistoricalstandardsinQ3.

CostpressuresfacingbusinessesremainelevatedinWesternEurope,AsiaPacific,NorthAmerica,andAfrica.

TheproportionofCFOsexperiencingincreasedoperating costsdeclinedmateriallyinQ3 andisnowsimilartothatofthebroaderpanel.

CHART4:Concernsaboutincreasedoperatingcosts%

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

Source:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

%ofglobalrespondentsreporting‘increasedcosts’Medianoversurveyhistory

80

60

40

20

0

CHART5:Concernsaboutincreasedoperatingcosts%ofrespondentsreportingincreasedcosts

NorthAmericaWesternEuropeMiddleEastAsiaPacificSouthAsiaAfrica

Q32024.Medianoversurveyhistory

Source:ACCA/IMA(2024)

CHART6:GlobalCFOconcernsaboutincreasedoperatingcosts%ofrespondentsreportingincreasedcosts

100

80

60

40

20

0

Medianoversurveyhistory

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

Source:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2024

5

ConcernsgloballythatcustomerscouldgooutofbusinessroseslightlyinQ3,while

concernsaboutsupplierseasedagain.

NeitherofourtwoGECS‘fear’indiceslookworryingbyhistoricalstandards(seeChart7).Meanwhile,globalproblemsaccessingfinanceeasedforthesecondconsecutivequarter,withonly14%ofrespondents

reportingissuesaccessingfinance,belowthehistoricalaverageof20%.Therecentdeclinelikelyreflectstheimprovementin

globalfinancialconditionssinceautumn

2023andthebeginningofratecutsby

themajorglobalcentralbanks.Global

problemssecuringpromptpaymentalso

easedslightlyandarebelowtheirhistoricalaverage(seeChart8).

Theeasinginglobalfinancialconditions

hasbeenahelpfultailwindfortheglobal

economy,andmonetaryeasingbycentral

banks,particularlytheU.S.FederalReserve,

isclearlyverybeneficial.Nevertheless,

absentasharpslowingingrowth,interest-rate-cuttingcyclesarelikelytobequite

gradualandratesarestilllikelytoremainhighbythestandardsofthepost-GlobalFinancialCrisisperiod.Hence,firms

andhouseholdsthatlockedinverylow

interestratesinrecentyearsarelikelyto

experienceariseinborrowingcostswhentheycometorenewtheirloans.

Concernsgloballythatcustomerscouldgooutofbusinessedged upinQ3,butconcernsabout supplierscontinuedtoease. Neitherserieslooksalarmingbyhistoricalstandards.

Globalproblemsaccessing financehaveeasedquitemateriallyin2024andareclosetorecordlows.

CHART7:GECSglobal‘fear’indicesIndex

50

40

30

20

10

0

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

GECS:Indexofconcernaboutcustomersgoingoutofbusiness

GECS:IndexofconcernaboutsuppliersgoingoutofbusinessSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

CHART8:Problemssecuringpromptpaymentandaccessingfinance

%

35

30

25

20

15

10

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

GECS:Globalproblemsaccessingfinance

GECS:GlobalproblemssecuringpromptpaymentSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2024

6

NORTHAMERICA

ConfidenceimprovedsomewhatinQ3,albeit

recoupinglessthanhalfofQ2’sdecline(seeChart

9),andremainsbelowitshistoricalaverage.TheNewOrders,CapitalExpenditureandEmploymentindicesalldeclinedbyvaryingdegreesandarewellbelow

theirhistoricalaverages.Somewhatencouragingly,theproportionofrespondentsreportingincreasedoperatingcostseasedtoitslowestsinceQ12021,

whileremaininghighbyhistoricalstandards.Allin

all,whiletheincreaseinconfidenceiswelcome,thekeyindicatorsareconsistentwithsomeslowingin

theU.S.economyandsignificantcautiononbehalfofbusinesses.Butwiththejobmarketshowing

resilienceandtheFederalReservebeginningits

rate-cuttingcycle,themostlikelyscenariofortheU.S.economystilllookstobeasoftlanding.Nevertheless,giventheuncertaintyfacedbyfirmsamidtheelection,andsharplyheightenedgeopoliticaltensions,one

cannotruleoutasharper-than-expectedslowdown.

ASIAPACIFIC

ConfidencefellverysharplyinQ3,erasingmostofthegainsmadeearlierintheyear,althoughitisonlyslightlybelowitshistoricalaverage.Therewasalsoquiteameaningfuldecreaseintheforward-lookingNewOrdersIndex(seeChart10),butitremains

wellaboveaverage.ThemessagecomingfromtheCapitalExpenditureandEmploymentindiceswas

mixed.Theformerimprovedslightlyandisaboveaverage,whilethelatterfellquitematerially,but

isclosetoitsaverage.Allinall,thekeyindicatorspointtoamoredownbeatbackdropfortheregion.ThecontinuedweaknessoftheChineseeconomywaslikelyafactor,aswellasconcernsaboutthe

U.S.economyandsignsofweakeninginglobal

manufacturing.ThemovetoamoreaggressivepolicystimulusbytheChineseauthorities,subsequentto

thesurveyperiod,shouldhelpactivityintheregion,aswillfallingU.S.interestrates.TheU.S.electionandgeopoliticsremainimportantrisks.

WESTERNEUROPE

Therewasquitealargedeclineinconfidence,whichisnowatitslowestsinceQ42023(seeChart11).

SimilarlyfortheNewOrdersIndex,whichisnow

meaningfullybelowitshistoricalaverage.More

encouragingly,theCapitalExpenditureIndexedgedslightlyhigher,andtherewasadecentgaininthe

EmploymentIndex.Theformerisbelowitshistoricalaveragewhilethelatterisjustabove.Meanwhile,

theproportionofrespondentsreportingincreased

operatingcostsjumpedandremainswellaboveits

average.Muchworsethanexpected,outturnsfortheUKheavilyinfluencedtheresults.UKconfidencefellmarkedly,andtherewasameaningfuldeclineinthe

NewOrdersIndex.TheproportionofUKrespondentscitingincreasedoperatingcostsalsosoared.TheUKresultsseemtoflyinthefaceoftheimprovingdata

thisyear,bothontheactivityandinflationfront,and

likelyreflectbusinessconcernsaboutpolicychangesandtaxrisesattheBudgeton30October.

CHART9:NorthAmericaIndex

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

60

-

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndexSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

CHART10:AsiaPacificIndex

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndexSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

CHART11:WesternEuropeIndex

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2024

7

MIDDLEEAST

Confidenceintheregionimprovedquitesharplyin

Q3,asdidtheCapitalExpenditureandEmployment

indices(seeChart12),allofwhicharenowwellabovetheirhistoricalaverages.Bycontrast,therewasa

smallfallintheNewOrdersIndex,althoughitremains

aboveaverage.Thelatestresultswereclearly

encouragingandcomedespiteconflictintheregionandthefallinoilpricessincetheQ2survey.The

positiveresultslikelyreflectthecontinuedresilienceofthenon-oileconomiesinkeycountriessuchas

SaudiArabia,aswellasrisingexpectationsofeasierU.S.monetarypolicy,withmanycurrenciesinthe

regionpeggedtotheU.S.dollar.ComparedwithQ2,surveyrespondentsalsobecamemoreoptimisticontheprospectsforincreasesingovernmentspendingoverthenext12months.Onanoteofcaution,the

surveywasconductedbeforethelatestintensificationofhostilitiesintheregion,whichriskweighingon

businessandconsumersentiment,despitepushingoilpriceshigher.

SOUTHASIA

ConfidenceregisteredadecentincreaseinQ3–itisnowatitshighestlevelsinceQ32022andaboveitshistoricalaverage.Therewasalsoa

smallimprovementintheNewOrdersIndex,which

remainsaboveitsaverage(seeChart13).There

weresolidgainsinboththeCapitalExpenditureandEmploymentindices.Theformerisaboveitshistoricalaverage,whilethelatterisatit.Meanwhile,the

proportionofsurveyrespondentsreportingincreasedoperatingcostsfellsharplyandisnowatitshistoricalaverage.Overall,thekeyindicatorsareconsistent

withaquitepositivebackdropforSouthAsia.The

region’slargesteconomy,India,shouldcontinuetobetheworld’sfastestgrowingmajoreconomyin

both2024and2025.Itshouldbenefitfromstrong

infrastructureinvestmentbythegovernment,fast

growthintheservicessector,andthecontinued

diversificationofinternationalsupplychains.Thejobmarketremainsanareaofsomeweaknessthough.

AFRICA

Allthekeyindicesdeclinedbyvaryingdegreesin

Q3(seeChart14).TheConfidenceandNewOrdersindicesbothregisteredquitesmallfalls.Theformerisbelowitshistoricalaverage,whilethelatteris

aboveit.TheCapitalExpenditureIndexrecorded

amodestdecline,buttherewasalargerretreatintheEmploymentIndex.Bothindicesarebelowtheirhistoricalaverages,butnotsignificantly.Meanwhile,theproportionofrespondentsreportingincreased

operatingcostseasedinQ3whileremainingelevated

byhistoricalstandards.Inflationremainsamajor

issueintheregion,althoughtheimprovingpictureinsomecountriesisallowingcentralbankstoreducepolicyrates.MonetaryeasingbytheU.S.Federal

Reserveshouldproveveryhelpfulbyreducing

currencydepreciationpressures,butgeopoliticaldevelopmentsremainamajorrisk,giventheir

potentialimpactoncommodityprices.

CHART12:MiddleEastIndex

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndexSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

CHART13:SouthAsiaIndex

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndexSource:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

CHART14:AfricaIndex

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

8

2.ChiefFinancialOfficers(CFOs)

ConfidenceamongCFOsfallsinQ3,amidabigdeclineinneworders.

TheindicesreportedinthissectionreflectthesurveyresponsesofCFOswhoarepartofourbroaderglobalpanelofaccountantsandfinanceprofessionals.

ConfidenceamongCFOsrecordeda

moderatedeclineinQ3andisnowslightlybelowitshistoricalaverage.TheNew

OrdersIndexfellsharply,though,andiswellbelowaverage(seeChart15).TheConfidenceIndexforCFOsisjustbelowthatofthebroaderpanel(accountants,

auditors,etc.,aswellasCFOs),whiletheNewOrdersIndexismeaningfullylower.

TheCapitalExpenditureIndexforCFOs

fellmoderatelyafteraverylargegain

previously(seeChart16).Itremainsbelowitshistoricalaverage,althoughithasbeenmateriallyloweronseveraloccasionssinceRussiainvadedUkraine.Itremainslower

thantheindexforthebroaderpanel,but

notsignificantly.TheEmploymentIndex

increasedmoderatelyandisaboveits

average(seeChart16)andwellabove

thatofthebroaderpanel.Meanwhile,the

proportionofCFOsexperiencingincreasedoperatingcostsdeclinedbyalmost10

percentagepointsbutremainselevatedbyhistoricalstandards(see

Chart6

).

Allinall,thelatestresultsfromCFOspointtosomeincreaseincautioninQ3,and

areconsistentwithsomeslowinginglobalgrowth.Thelargefallintheproportionof

CFOsreportingincreasedoperatingcostsisawelcomedevelopment,nonetheless,

andpointstoaninflationarybackdropthatisbecomingmoreconducivetoareductioninthemagnitudeofcentralbanks’policy

restraint.Thatsaid,withcostconcerns

remainingonthehighsidehistorically,

policymakersstillneedtotreadcarefully.

ConfidenceamongCFOsdeclinedinQ3,andtherewasaverysharpfallintheNewOrdersIndex.

ThemessagefromtheCapital ExpenditureandEmploymentindiceswasmixed,withtheformerdecliningandthelatterrising.

CHART15:GECSglobalindicators–CFOsIndex

40

20

0

-20

-40

Medianoversurveyhistory

-60

-80Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

ConfidenceIndexOrdersIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

CHART16:GECSglobalindicators–CFOsIndex

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Medianoversurveyhistory

Q32014Q32016Q32018Q32020Q32022Q32024

CapitalExpenditureIndexEmploymentIndex

Source:ACCA/IMA(2014–24)

9

3.Theultimateyearofnationalelectionsandgeopoliticaluncertainties

Whileaccountantsaroundtheworld

againrankedmacroeconomicsasthehighestriskpriorityoverall,differencesacrosssectorspaintedatellingstory

abouthowtheprofessionismakingsenseoftoday’slandscape.

Worldwide,morevotersinhistorywill

haveheadedtothepollsbytheendof

2024,withatleast64countries,plus

theEuropeanUnion,holdingnational

elections,theresultsofwhichmayproveconsequentialforyearstocome.With

intensifyingconflictsintheMiddleEast

andthewarbetweenRussiaandUkraine,responsestotherisksectionofourthird-quarter2024(Q32024)GECSreport

revealhowchallengingithasbecomeforfinancialprofessionalstounderstandtheeconomicimpactsofthisunprecedentedcombinationofrisks.

Byregion,NorthAmericahadthelargest

proportionofrespondentstorank

‘economicinflation,recessionandinterestrates’astheirtopriskpriorityforQ32024.

Answerstotheopen-endedquestion,‘whatdoyoufeelisthemostunderestimatedriskfacingyourorganisation?’illustratethe

degreeofemergingthreatsfacing

businessesintoday’spoly-crisisenvironment.U.S.respondentspointedtoarangeof

scenariosfromtradetariffstochanging

cybersecurityreportingrequirementsandartificialintelligence(AI)laws.Afinancialmanagerfromamanufacturerinthe

Midwestsaid:‘theimplicationsofthesearehardtomeasure’.Othersalsoshowed

growingconcernsabouttheshortageof

skills,notleastintheaccountancy

profession.AcontrollerfromanotherU.S.

manufacturerrepliedmorecandidlyabout

blindspotswithinherowncompany,sayingthat‘thebiggestriskstomyorganisationareinternal.Withnoconsistentinternalcontrols

orcentralisedriskassessment,Ibelievetherearethingshappeningthatcould

causeirreparabledamageinthefuture’.

‘Bearish’isthebestwaytodescriberisk

surveyresponsesfromtheUK,which

accentuatedwhatACCA’schiefeconomistwroteintheprevioussectionaboutfallingconfidencedespitelong-awaitedeconomicgrowth.‘Themostunderestimatedriskforusisthereductionincharitabledonations

ifthenewgovernmentincreasestaxes’,

saidanACCAmemberfromthenot-for-

profitsector.Thisrespondentalsosaidthatthebiggestimpacttheeconomyhadon

hisbusinesswas‘scalingbackinvestmentincapitalprojectsandstaff’.

Mostrespondentsexpressedconcerns

abouttheupcomingBudgetspeech.One

saidthatthemostunderestimatedriskwas‘uncertaintyaroundchangestotaxation

andemploymentlawandhowthatimpactsrecruitment,whichisalreadydifficult.Iworryhowwewillbeabletoprovideacceptablelevelsofsupportforourcustomers’.

Responsesfromthoseworkingatsmall-to-medium-sizedenterprises(SMEs)

alsostruckchordsabouttheincreasing

riskoverloadandthinningcapacity.Onecommentedhow‘highertaxationand

increasedworkers’rightsarehittingsmallbusinessemployershard’whileanother

ACCAmemberadded,‘Ihaveneverseensuchuncertaintysincequalifying’.

Respondentsfromthecorporatesector

rankedmacroeconomicsasthehighestriskpriority,butresponsesfromaroundtheworld

showedhowinterconnectedeverythingis.Forexample,oneACCAmemberin

Australia,notedthe‘increasingpossibilityofaglobalAI-triggeredcrash’whilealsosuggestingthatautomationwillhelp

eliminateinefficiencies.Afinancedirector

atatransportationcompanyin

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