歐洲央行-歐元區(qū)的通貨膨脹與貨幣政策 Inflation and monetary policy in the euro area

Inflationand

monetarypolicyintheeuroarea

SeminaratColumbiaUniversity

?22October2024

PhilipR.Lane

MemberoftheExecutiveBoard

0

Policypath

Policyratepathandrisk-freecurveEvolutionofEurosystembalancesheet

(percentagesperannum)(trillionEUR)

RealisedDFRDec2021

Dec2022Sep2023

4.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0

Latest

202220232024202520262027

Sources:BloombergandECBcalculations.

Notes:Thecut-offdatesforthedatausedforthe€STRforwardcurvesare17December2021,16December2022,15September2023,and21October2024.

APPPEPPTLTROs

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

2020202120222023202418-Oct-24

Source:ECBCalculations.

Notes:Purchaseprogrammesarebasedonbookvalueatamortisedcost.Thelatestobservationsisfor18October2024.

1

www.ecb.europa.eu?

Euroareaeconomicoutlook

September2024staffprojections:keymacroeconomicvariables

September2024

(annualpercentagechange)

2023202420252026

2023

vs.June2024

(percentagepoints)

20242025

2026

HICP

5.4

2.52.21.9

0.0

0.00.0

0.0

HICPexcl.energyandfood

4.9

2.92.32.0

0.0

0.10.1

0.0

Compensationperemployee

5.3

4.53.63.2

0.1

-0.30.1

0.0

Unitlabourcosts

6.2

4.52.62.1

0.1

-0.20.1

0.0

RealGDP

0.5

0.81.31.5

-0.1

-0.1-0.1

-0.1

Privateconsumption

0.7

0.81.41.5

0.1

-0.4-0.3

-0.1

Governmentconsumption

1.0

1.21.11.1

0.2

0.00.0

0.0

Totalinvestment

1.2

-0.51.22.1

-0.1

-0.6-0.3

0.1

Unemploymentrate(%oflabourforce)

6.5

6.56.56.5

0.0

0.00.0

0.2

(Q4

23Q4

September2024

onQ4percentagechange)

24Q425Q426Q4

23Q4

vs.June2024

(percentagepoints)

24Q425Q4

26Q4

HICP

2.7

2.62.01.9

0.0

0.10.0

0.1

HICPexcl.energyandfood

3.7

2.92.11.9

0.0

0.3-0.1

-0.1

Compensationperemployee

4.8

4.33.33.0

0.1

-0.2-0.2

0.0

Unitlabourcosts

5.9

3.72.21.9

0.0

0.1-0.3

0.0

RealGDP

0.2

1.11.51.4

0.1

-0.40.1

-0.2

Privateconsumption

0.8

0.91.51.4

0.2

-0.80.0

-0.2

Governmentconsumption

1.6

0.41.50.9

0.3

-0.20.3

-0.2

Totalinvestment

1.5

-0.71.32.3

-0.1

-0.80.2

0.1

Unemploymentrate(%oflabourforce)

6.5

6.56.56.4

0.0

0.00.1

0.1

Source:ECBstaffmacroeconomicprojections–September2024.

Note:Revisionscalculatedbasedonroundedfigures.

2

www.ecb.europa.eu?

Euroareashort-termoutlook

Composite,manufacturingandservices

PurchasingManagers'Indices

(diffusionindex)

CompositeManufacturingServices

55.0

52.5

50.0

47.5

45.0

42.5

40.0

Output/Businessactivity

55.0

52.5

50.0

47.5

45.0

42.5

40.0

Neworders/Newbusiness

01/2405/2409/2401/2405/2409/24

Source:S&PGlobal.

Notes:Dottedlinesreferto2015-19means.Outputandneworderscorrespondto

manufacturingandcompositeandbusinessactivityandnewbusinesstoservices.ThelatestobservationsareforSeptember2024.

3

RealGDPgrowthestimatesandrecessionprobabilities

(left-handscale:quarter-on-quarterpercentagechanges;right-

handscale:percentage)

DeeprecessionMildrecession

Mildexpansion

Robustexpansion

September2024MPE

Corporatecontactsscoring

SurveyofMonetaryAnalysts

SurveyofProfessional

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

Q32024Q42024

Forecasters

02/09/24

Sep.24GovC

07/10/24

Oct.24GovC

21/10/24Latest

Sources:Eurostat,ECBcalculationsandECBstaffmacroeconomicprojectionsfortheeuroarea(MPE),September2024.Notes:lhs:corporatecontactsscoringistheaveragescore

(rangefrom-2to2)givenbyECBstaffintheirassessmentofwhatnon-financialcompaniessaidaboutq-o-qdevelopmentsinactivity.Rhs:probabilitiesestimatedbyapanellogitmodelsinceQ11999.Deep(mild)recessiondefinedasfourconsecutivequartersbelow-0.25%

(0%)q-o-qgrowth,mild(robust)expansionasfourconsecutivequartersabove0%(0.25%).Thelatestobservationsarefor9OctoberforSPF,18Octoberforcontactsscoring,and21

OctoberforSMA.Fortherhspanel,thelatestobservationsarefor21October.www.ecb.europa.eu?

Privateconsumption

Consumersentimentand

businessservicesexpectations

(standardisedindices)

Realprivateconsumptionand

disposableincome

(quarter-on-quarterpercentagechanges)

GrossdisposableincomePrivatefinalconsumption

Model-baseddecompositionof

thechangeinthesavingrate

(percentagepointchanges)

Residuals

ConsumerconfidencemmShort-terminterestrate

Netwealth

mmOtherincome

1.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2

3

LabourincomeSavingrate

4

2

3

1

2

0

1

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-3

Consumerconfidence(ECFIN)Majorpurchases(ECFIN)

Consumeruncertainty(ECFIN)

Expectedholidaypurchases(CES)

01/2305/2309/2301/2405/2409/24

Sources:Eurostat,DG-ECFIN,ConsumerExpectationsSurvey(CES)andECBcalculations.

Notes:Consumerconfidenceandmajorpurchasesarestandardisedover1999-2019,consumeruncertaintyoverApril2019-September2024with

respecttotheaverageofQ42021,expectedholidaypurchasesoverApril2020-August2024.Thelatestobservationsforexpectedholiday

purchasesareforAugust2024andotherwiseforSeptem.uropa.eu?

Q124Q224

Q422Q123Q223Q323Q423Q124Q224

Sources:Eurostat,September2024MPEandECBcalculations.

Notes:Dataareseasonallyadjustedandinrealterms.Diamonds

correspondtotheSeptember2024MPE.Thelatestobservationsareforthesecondquarterof2024.

Sources:Eurostat,EuropeanCommissionDirectorate-GeneralforEconomicandFinancialAffairs(DG-ECFIN),andECBcalculations.

Notes:Decompositionbasedonanerror-correctionmodelforprivate

consumption,includingrealhouseholdlabourandotherincome,realnetwealth,realinterestrateandhouseholdconfidence.Realinterestratesarecomputedasthedifferencebetweenthenominalthree-month

EURIBORandhouseholdsinflationxpectationsone-yearaheadfromDG-ECFIN.

Housinginvestment

Housinginvestmentandshort-term

indicators

(index:Q12023=100,balances,diffusionindex)

Housingasagoodinvestmentand

expectedusercostofhousing

(panela:lhsbalance,percentages,rhspercentages;panelb:

102

100

98

96

94

92

Housinginvestment

BuildingandspecialisedconstructionoutputPMIhousingoutput(right-handscale)

ECbuildingandspecialisedconstructionactivity(right-handscale)

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2023

Q1

Q3

Q22024

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

Sources:Eurostat,S&PGlobal,DG-ECFIN,ECBandECBcalculations.

Notes:Thelatestobservationsareforthesecondquarterof2024forhousinginvestment,July2024forbuildingandspecialisedconstructionoutputandSeptember2024forPMIandEuropeanCommission(EC)buildingandspecialisedconstructionactivity.

5

Housingasagoodinvestment

Expectedusercostofhousing(rhs)

Levels

points)

Debtservicecosts

Capitalgains(negative)Foregoneincome

Expectedusercostofhousing

Changes(Oct.2023-Aug.2024)

46

42

38

34

30

8

7

6

5

4

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

Euroarea

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

01/2201/2301/24

Sources:Eurostat,S&PGlobal,DG-ECFIN,ECBandECBcalculations.

Notes:Theexpectedusercostofhousingappliesthemethodologydescribedinthe

EconomicBulletinbox

entitled"Housinginvestmentandtheusercostofhousinginthe

euroarea",using12-months-aheadexpectationsofmortgagerates,interestrateson

savingsandhousepricegrowthtomeasureexpectationsaboutdebtservicecosts,

foregoneincomeandcapitalgains,respectively.ThelatestobservationisforAugust2024.

www.ecb.europa.eu?

Businessinvestment

Investmentandcapitalgoodsindicators

(lhs:quarter-on-quarterpercentagechanges,standardised

surveys;rhs:Q22024cumulatedpercentagechangessinceQ4

2021,percentagepoints)

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

mmNon-constructioninvestment

ECconfidencePMIoutput

PMIneworders

Euroarea

Q122Q123Q324

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

IPPexcl.IEIPP

Transportequipment

Mach.andeq.excl.transportNon-constructioninvestment Non-residentialconstruction

investment

EAUSEAUS

Sources:Eurostat,S&PGlobal,DG-ECFINandBureauofEconomicAnalysis.

Notes:lhs:ThePMIisexpressedintermsofthedeviationfrom50dividedby10.EuropeanCommission(EC)confidencereferstothecapitalgoodssectorandisstandardisedover

theperiod2000-19.Euroareanon-constructioninvestmentexcludesIrishintellectual

propertyproducts.Rhs:Non-residentialconstructioninvestmentalsoincludesinvestmentbythepublicsector.Thelatestobservationsareforthesecondquarterof2024for

investmentandSeptember2024forPMIandECconfidence.

20

15

10

6

Fixedinvestment(SAFE)

5

0

(netpercentagesofrespondents)

InvestmentExpectedinvestment

Q1-24

Q2-24

Q4-23

Q3-24

Allfirms

Q1-24

Q2-24

Q4-23

Q3-24

SMEs

Q1-24

Q2-24

Q4-23

Q3-24

Largefirms

Source:SurveyonAccesstoFinanceforEnterprises(SAFE).

Notes:Barsrefertodevelopmentsovertheprecedingthreemonthsanddiamondsto

expectationsoverthenextthreemonths.Theexpectedinvestmentlineisshiftedbyoneperiodtocomparewithrealisations.Thequestiononexpectedinvestmentswasfirst

includedinthequestionnairecoveringthesecondandthirdquartersof2023.

Theobservationsrefertopilot2(Oct-Dec2023),round30(Jan-Mar2024)andround31

(Apr-Jun2024).

www.ecb.europa.eu?

Exports

Euroareagoodstradevolumes

(lhs:three-month-on-three-monthgrowth,percentages;rhs:

diffusionindex)

50

2

1

45

0

40

-1

-2

35

Extra-euroareaexportsEuroareamanufacturingGlobalimportsexcl.euroareaPMInewexportorders

01/2307/2301/2407/24

09/24

01/2307/2301/24

Sources:Eurostat,CPBandS&PGlobal.

Notes:Theunderlyingdataareseasonallyadjustedandbasedoncustomsdata.AsexportvolumedataforAugustisnotavailable,thelatestdatapointisapproximatedbydeflatingAugustvalueswithindustrialexportprices.ThelatestobservationsareforJuly2024for

globalimports,August2024forexportsandSeptember2024forPMI.

7

Servicesexports

(quarter-on-quartergrowth,percentages)

4

3

2

1

0

-1

GermanyItaly

Netherlands

Restofeuroarea

France

Spain

Ireland

Euroarea

Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42023Q12024Q22024

Source:Eurostat.

Note:ThelatestobservationsareforQ22024.

www.ecb.europa.eu?

Labourmarketdevelopments

Labourforcegrowthfromparticipationandpopulation

(year-on-yearpercentagechangesand

contributions)

Employment,unemploymentand

labourforcedevelopments

(left:year-on-yearpercentagechanges,right:

Migrationandlabourforcegrowth

(year-on-yearpercentagechangesand

contributions)

LabourforcegrowthEmploymentgrowth

mmNon-euroareanationalscontributionmmOthereuroareanationalscontributionNationalscontribution

percentagepoints)

Unemploymentrate(rhs)

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

7.0

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

Q122Q322Q123Q323Q124Jul-24Aug-24

:Eurostat.

EmploymentgrowthisbasedonnationalaccountsdataandlabourforcegrowthandtheunemploymentratearebasedonLabourForceSurveydata.ThelatestobservationsareforQ22024for

0.0

Working-agepopulationcontributionParticipationratecontribution

--Labourforcegrowth

Labourforcegrowth

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Q1-Q2-Q3-Q4-Q1-Q2-Q3-Q4-Q1-Q2-22222222232323232424

Q1-Q2-Q3-Q4-Q1-Q2-Q3-Q4-Q1-Q2-22222222232323232424

SourceNotes:

Source:Eurostat.

Note:ThelatestobservationsareforQ22024

Source:Eurostat.

Note:ThelatestobservationsareforQ22024.

8

employmentgrowthandAugust2024fortheunemploymentrateandlabourforcegrowth.

www.ecb.europa.eu?

Labourmarketoutlook

PMIemploymentNowcastofthejobvacancyrate

(diffusionindex)(percentages)

CompositeConstruction

ManufacturingServices

56

54

52

50

48

46

44

Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24

Source:S&PGlobal.

Notes:Avalueof50indicatestheneutralthresholdbetweenexpansionaryterritory(>50)andcontractionaryterritory(<50).ThelatestobservationsareforSeptember2024

9

Jobvacancyrate

----Forecastfromearningscalls(mean)

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

Q1-23Q2-23Q3-23Q4-23Q1-24Q2-24Q3-24Q4-24

Sources:NLAnalyticsandEurostat.

Notes:Mean(reddashedline)andthemin-maxrange(greyarea)offorecastsofthejobvacancyrateobtainedwithseveralMIDASregressions.ThelatestobservationsareforQ22024forthejobvacancyrate.ForecastsareuptoQ42024.

www.ecb.europa.eu?

Recentinflationdevelopmentsandshort-termoutlook

Headlineinflation,coreinflationandECB

staffprojections

(annualpercentagechanges)

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

RealisedHICP

oHICPSeptember2024ECBstaffprojectionsRealisedHICPX

HICPXSeptember2024ECBstaffprojections

202120222023202420252026

Sources:Eurostat,andSeptember2024ECBstaffprojections.

Notes:HarmonisedIndexofConsumerPrices(HICP)referstoheadlineinflationand

HICPXtoHICPexcludingfoodandenergy.RealisedHICPandHICPXareatamonthlyfrequency,andHICPandHICPXprojectionsareataquarterlyfrequency.Thelatest

observationsareforSeptember2024.

10

Short-termforecastsforHICPandHICPX

(annualpercentagechanges)

Consensus(7October2024)◆HICP/HICPX

Regressionforestmean(17October2024)Regressionforestmedian(17October2024)

September2024ECBstaffprojections

Fixingsexcludingtobacco(17October2024)

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

HICP

09/2412/2403/2506/25

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

HICPX

09/2412/2403/2506/25

Sources:Eurostat,September2024ECBstaffprojections,ConsensusEconomics,BloombergandECBcalculations.

Notes:QuantileRegressionForestestimatesarefrom

Lenza,MoutachakerandParedes

(2023)

.TheHICPfixingsareobservedmarketprices.Thelatestobservationsarefor

September2024.

www.ecb.europa.eu?

Servicesinflation

PCCIservices

(annualpercentagechanges)

Services

PCCIservices

7

6

2

1

01/2205/2209/2201/2305/2309/2301/2405/2409/24

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Note:ThelatestobservationsareforSeptember2024.

Servicesinflationmomentum

(annualpercentagechangesandannualisedpercentage

changes)

Servicesyear-on-year

Servicesthree-month-on-three-monthServicesmonth-on-month

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

01/2403/2405/2407/2409/24

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Note:Themonth-on-monthratesandthethree-month-on-three-monthratearecalculatedfromseasonallyadjusteddataandarethussubjecttorevisions.ThelatestobservationsareforSeptember2024.

11

www.ecb.europa.eu?

Measuresofunderlyinginflation

Measuresofunderlyinginflation

(annualpercentagechanges)

HICPX

HICPXXDomestic

HICPexcl.unprocessed

foodandenergy

HICPexcl.energySupercore

PCCI

PCCIexcl.energy

Standardmeasures

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Adjustedmeasures

4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5

Difference

01/2310/2309/24

01/2310/2309/2401/2310/2309/24

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Notes:TheadjustedmeasuresabstractfromenergyandsupplybottleneckshocksusingalargeSVAR,see

Banbura,BobeicaandMartínez-Hernández,(2023)

,“Whatdrivescore

inflation?Theroleofsupplyshocks”,ECBWorkingPaper,No2875.ThelatestobservationsareforSeptember2024.

12

Impactofpastshockslinkedtoenergyandglobalsupplychainbottlenecks

(percentagepoints)

EnergyGlobalsupplychain

PCCIDomestic

1.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2

06/2203/2312/2309/24

1.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2

06/2203/2312/2309/24

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Note:Impactcomputedbasedon

Bańbura,BobeicaandMartínez-Hernández,(2023)

.ThelatestobservationsareforSeptember2024.

www.ecb.europa.eu?

GDPdeflatorandprofitdevelopments

GDPdeflator

(annualpercentagechangesandpercentagepoint

contributions)

UnitlabourcostsUnitprofits

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

UnitnettaxesGDPdeflator

Q12022Q32022Q12023Q32023Q1202420242026

Sources:Eurostat,September2024ECBstaffprojectionsandECBcalculations.

Notes:Unitnettaxesreflecttaxesminussubsidies.Whenthecontributionofsubsidiesonproductsislargerthanthecontributionofindirecttaxes,theunittaxcontributionturns

negative.ThelatestobservationsareforQ22024.

Profitindicatorsfromsurveys

(averageofsurveyscores)

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

PastimpliedprofitmarginsFutureimpliedprofitmargins

Q12022Q32022Q12023Q32023Q12024Q32024

Source:CorporateTelephoneSurvey(CTS).

Notes:Thescoreiscalculatedassellingpricescore-0.5xinputcostscore-0.5xwagescore.Pastandfuturesellingandinputpricescoresrefertodevelopmentsinthepreviousandnextquarters.ThelatestobservationsareforQ32024.

13

www.ecb.europa.eu?

Wagepressures

EuroareawagetrackerWagetrackerscenarios

(annualpercentagechanges)(annualpercentagechanges)

ECBincludingone-offsIndeed

Wagetrackers

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

03/2303/2403/25

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

202120222023

Wagegrowthin2024

agreementsbysigningdate

ofpreviouscontract

202120222023

Sources:CalculatedbasedonmicrodataonwageagreementsprovidedbytheDeutsche

Bundesbank,BancodeEspa?a,theDutchemployerassociation(AWVN),OesterreichischeNationalbank,BankofGreece,Bancad’Italia,BankofIrelandandBanquedeFrance.

Notes:Left-handside:One-offpaymentsarespreadover12monthsfromtheagreeddisbursement.Right-handside;12-monthstructuralwagegrowthforcontractssignedin2024dependingonthe

yearofsigningofthepreviouscontract.ThelatestobservationsareforMarch2025forthewagetrackerandSeptember2024fortheindeedtracker.

14

Coverageforforecastscenarios(rhs) Coverageforactivecontracts(rhs)ECBwagetracker

ScenarioQ22024

ScenarioHICP+PROD

ScenarioHICPX+PROD

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Negotiatedwages(SeptemberMPE)

50

40

30

20

10

0

06/2412/2406/2512/25

Notes:Theforecastscenariostakesectorswithcontractsexpiringafterthecurrentdateandassumesthatnewcontractsareconcludedwithastructuralwageincreaseperyearbasedonafullpass-throughofprojected(SeptemberMPE)HICPorHICPXinflationandproductivitygrowth(scenariosHICP+PRODandHICPX+PROD),oratthesamerateof

wageincreaseobservedforcontractssignedinQ22024(Scenario:Q22024).The

forward-lookingtrackeronlyconsidersactiveagreements.Allscenariosincludeone-off

paymentssmoothedover12months.ThelatestobservationsareforDecember2w..ecb.europa.eu?

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

<1.91.9-2.1>2.1

Sources:SPF,SMAandECBcalculations.

Notes:Theverticalaxisshowspercentagesof

respondents,thehorizontalaxisshowstheHICP

inflationrate.Longer-terminflationexpectationsrefertofourtofiveyearsahead.ThelatestobservationsareforQ42024.

Inflationexpectations

Distributionoflonger-terminflationexpectations

Euroareainflation-

(percentagesofrespondents)

SPFQ42024SPFQ32024SMAQ42024SMAQ32024

linkedswaprates

(percentagesperannum,index)

ECBConsumer

ExpectationsSurvey

(annualpercentagechanges)

Firms’expectations

abouteuroareainflation

(percentagesperannum)

2.75

2.50

2.25

2.00

1.75

Euroarea5y5yILS

expectationcomponent

Euroarea5y5yILS

Aug-23Apr-2421-Oct

Sources:LSEG,BloombergandECBcalculations.

Notes:Premia-adjustedforwardinflation-linkedswaps(ILS)ratesareanaverageofestimatesfromtwoaffinetermstructuremodelsasinJoslin,SingletonandZhu(2011)appliedtoILSratesnon-adjustedforthe

indexationlag;seeBurbanetal.(2022).Thelatest

——Perceptionofpastinflation

——Inflationexpectationsoneyearahead——InflationexpectationsthreeyearsaheadHICP

10

8

6

4

2

0

Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Sep-24

Sources:EurostatandECBCES.

Notes:TheseriesrefertothemedianvalueforCES.ThelatestobservationsareforSeptember2024forHICPandAugust2024fortherest.

observationsarefor21October2024.15

6

5

4

3

2

AllfirmsSMELargefirms

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-23

Jun-24

1-yearahead

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-23

Jun-24

3-yearahead

Dec-23

Mar-24

Jun-23

Jun-24

5-yearahead

Sources:SurveyontheAccesstoFinanceofEnterprises(SAFE)andECBcalculations.

Notes:Survey-weightedmedianoffirms’expectations

abouteuroareainflationinoneyear,threeyearsandfiveyearsrespectively.ThelatestobservationsareforJune2024.

www.ecb.europa.eu?

Risk-freeratesandinflationexpectations

€STRforwardcurve

(percentagesperannum)

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

RangeofESCBmeasuresofi*

€STRforwardcurveadjustedfortermpremia(latest)€STRforwardcurve(latest)

€STRforwardcurve(preSeptemberGovC-11Sep24)Realised€STR

SMAmedian(Oct24)

SMA25th-75thpercentiles

2023202420252026Dec-26

Sources:Bloomberg,SMAandECBcalculations.

Notes:ThebarsdepictthemedianofresponsestotheOctoberSMAsurveyonexpectationsoffuturedepositfacilityrates.Surveysareadjustedforan€STRvs.depositfacilityratespread.Modelestimatesarebasedontwoaffinetermstructuremodels,withandwithoutsurveyinformationonrateexpectations(bothvariationsofJoslin,SingletonandZhu(2011)),andalowerboundtermstructuremodelfollowingGeigerandSchupp(2018)incorporatingsurveyinformationonrateexpectations.Therangeforthe(nominal)neutralratei*isbasedonESCBestimates.Thelatestobservationsarefor21October2024.

16

Marketandsurvey-basedeuroarea

inf(li)ns

ILS

SPF

SMA

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

SepGovCLatestSepGovCLatest

20252026

Sources:ECB,LSEGandECBcalculations.

Notes:Market-basedexpectationsareaverageexpectedmonthlyyear-on-yearinflationratesfor

thegivenyearbasedontwoaffinetermstructuremodels;seeBurban,V.etal(2022),

"Decomposingmarket-basedmeasuresofinflationcompensationintoinflationexpectationsand

riskpremia",EconomicBulletin,Issue8andGr?nlund,J?rgensenandSchupp(2024).SepGovC

refersto11September2024forILSexpectation,September2024forSMA,andQ32024forSPF.

Thelatestobservationsare21October2024forILSexpectations,October2024forSMA,Q4

2024forSPF.www.ecb.europa.eu?

Lendingratesforfirmsandhousingloans

LendingratesforfirmsLendingratesforhouseholds

(percentagesperannum)(percentagesperannum)

6

5

4

3

2

1

NewbusinessvolumesOutstandingamounts

Jan-22Sep-22May-23Jan-24Aug-24

Source:ECB.

Notes:Interestratesonnewbusinessareequivalenttotheindicatorforthetotalcostofborrowingforfirms,whichiscalculatedbyaggregatingshort-termandlong-termratesonnewbusinessusinga24-monthmovingaverageofnewbusinessvolumes.Thelatest

observationsareforAugust2024.

17

6

5

4

3

2

1