2024國際債券市場的發(fā)展與趨勢報(bào)告第四版-英文版-國際資本市場ICMA

Development

ICMA

Internationalcapital

Market

Association

TheAsianInternationalBondMarkets:

DevelopmentandTrends

FourthEdition,March2024

Researchedandwrittenby:AlexTsangandMushtaqKapasiforthePrimaryMarket;AndyHillfortheSecondaryMarket.

Dataanalysisby:AlexTsangandChristhoperMatthewforthePrimaryMarket;AndyHillfortheSecondaryMarket.

Thisreportdrawsuponnumerousinterviewswithmarketparticipants.ICMAwouldliketoacknowledgeCGIF,Citi,

CréditAgricoleCIB,GlobalXMirae,theHongKongExchangesandClearingLimited,HSBC,ICBCAsia,PingAn,S&PGlobalandStandardCharteredBank(inalphabeticalorder)fortheirsignificantcontributionstothecurrentreport,as

wellasthosewhoprovidedinsightsforthepreviouseditionsofthisreport.ICMAwouldliketoextenditsappreciationtoBloomberg,CovalentCapital,Dealogic,EquiLend,IHSMarkitandMarketAxessforprovidingthedataandanalysisusedinthisreport.IfthereisanyinconsistencyorambiguitybetweentheEnglishversionandtheChineseversion,theEnglishversionshallprevail.

SupportedbytheHongKongMonetaryAuthority

Thispaperisprovidedforinformationpurposesonlyandshouldnotberelieduponaslegal,financial,orotherprofessionaladvice.Whiletheinformationcontainedhereinistakenfromsourcesbelievedtobereliable,ICMAdoesnotrepresentorwarrantthatitisaccurateorcompleteandneitherICMA

noritsemployeesshallhaveanyliabilityarisingfromorrelatingtotheuseofthispublicationoritscontents.Likewise,dataproviderswhoprovidedinformationusedinthisreportdonotrepresentorwarrantthatsuchdataisaccurateorcompleteandnodataprovidershallhaveanyliabilityarisingfromorrelatingtotheuseofthispublicationoritscontents.

?InternationalCapitalMarketAssociation(“ICMA”),Zurich,2024.Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeanswithoutpermissionfromICMA.

TheAsianInternationalBondMarkets:DevelopmentandTrends-March20242

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary4

Introduction6

Whythereport?6

Scopeandmethodology6

AboutICMA6

PrimaryMarkets7

Macroeconomicdevelopments7

InternationalbondsgloballyandinAsia7

Arrangement9

Listing10

Dealnationality11

Debutissuance18

Green,Social,Sustainability,andSustainability-Linkedbonds20

Investorsanddistribution27

Currencyandtenor28

Digitalisationandtechnology29

SecondaryMarkets31

Marketconditions31

China37

E-trading39

Repo40

CDS42

Outlookfor202444

TheAsianInternationalBondMarkets:DevelopmentandTrends-March20243

Executivesummary

In2023,theinternationalbondmarketsinAsiacontinuedtofacechallengesonmultiplefronts,notablyhighglobal

interestrates,geopoliticaltensions,andsectoralcredit

eventsfromChina.However,amidstthesedifficulties,therewerenotabledevelopmentsandtrendsobservedwithin

themarket.

Theannualissuancevolumeofinternationalbondsfrom

Asianissuersexperiencedapartialrecovery,risingfrom

aboutUS$371billionin2022toapproximatelyUS$380

billionin2023.Thisrecoverywasprimarilydrivenby

increasedinternationalbondissuancesfromJapan,

SouthKorea,andHongKong1.China’sinternational

bondissuancesdeclinedbyapproximately12%year-

on-yeartoUS$108billionin2023fromUS$122billionin2022andUS$230billionin2021.Despitethisdecline,

Chinaremainedasignificantplayer,accountingfor29%

ofthetotalissuancevolumeandrankingsecondonlyto

Japan’sUS$115billionissuancevolume.However,the

totalregionalissuancevolumein2023remainedbelowtherecordlevelofoverUS$620billionseenin2021,asAsianissuersshowedanincreasedpreferenceforissuingbondsindomesticcurrenciesforcost-effectivenessduring2022and2023.

OfallAsianinternationalbondsintheprimarymarket,theshareofissuancearrangedwithinAsiagrewfromabout

10%in2006to30-40%overthepastfouryears.HongKongconsistentlymaintaineditspositionastheprimary

locationforarranginginternationalbondissuancesfrom

Asianentities.In2023,however,itarrangedslightlyfewerissuancesthantheU.S.,primarilyduetoadeclinein

Chineseinternationalissuance.Intermsoflistinglocations,SingaporeandHongKongcontinuedtobetheregion’s

toptwomostpopularchoicesforlistingAsianinternationalbondsin2023,atrendthathaspersistedsince2011.

TheissuancevolumeofinternationalsustainablebondsbyAsianissuersexperiencedsignificantgrowthin2021,approachingUS$100billion.Thevolumestabilisedat

aboutUS$80billionin2022and2023.Chineseissuersretainedtheirleadingpositioninissuinginternational

sustainablebondsin2023,accountingforapproximately26%ofthetotalissuancevolume.JapanandKoreawerealsoprominentissuingcountries,collectivelycontributingtoanaverageof40%oftheannualissuancevolume

between2019and2023.HongKongwitnesseda

remarkableincreaseinissuancevolumein2023,doublingyear-on-yeartoapproximatelyUS$16billion.

Intermsofcurrencydistribution,internationalbonds

issuedbyAsianissuerscontinuedtobepredominantly

denominatedinG3currenciesin2023.Approximately70%ofthetotalissuancewasdenominatedinUSD,followedbyabout11%inRMBandapproximately9%inEUR.Yen-

denominatedissuanceonlyaccountedforabout1%.

Effortstopromotedigitalisationandinnovative

technologiesinAsia’sbondmarketsgainedtraction

in2023.Theseinitiativesaimedtoenhanceefficiencyandimprovemarketinfrastructure,facilitatingsmootheroperationsandtransactions.

Inlinewiththeprimarymarket,secondarymarketactivitiesandvolumessawasteadyincreaseinactivityfrom2020

tomid-2022buthavebeenindeclineleadingto2023,

particularlywithrespecttonon-financialissuers.Partly

thiscanbeattributedtochangingmarketconditions,withhigheryieldsandwideningcreditspreads.However,the

mostsignificantwasthestrongcorrelationbetweenprimaryissuanceandsecondaryactivity.ParticipantsalsopointedtotherelativedeclineofChineseinternationalissuance,

alongwithvolatilityspilloversintothewiderAsiamarket,

whichwasalsoreflectedinthenotabledeclineinsecondarymarketactivityinbondswithChinacountryofrisk.

TheChinaoffshoremarketcontinuedtosetthetonefor

theAsiainternationalmarketmorebroadly,andwhileitsshareoftheoverallmarkethasdecreased,thetravailsofthepropertysectorhaveweighedheavilyonbothspreadsandliquidity.SupportfromthePeople’sBankofChina

(“PBoC”)support,however,appearedtohavecreatedsomestabilitytowardtheendof2023.

1Forpurposesofthisresearchreport:(1)“HongKong”means“HongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegionofthePeople’sRepublicofChina”;(2)“China”,“MainlandChina”and“onshore”meansthePeople’sRepublicofChinaexcludingHongKong,MacauSpecialAdministrativeRegionandTaiwan;and(3)“offshore”means“non-PRC”.

TheAsianInternationalBondMarkets:DevelopmentandTrends-March20244

Participantsreportedacontinuedpushacrossthemarkettotradingonvenues,ratherthantraditionalvoice(or

message)basedtransactions.Thiswasparticularlythe

caseforsmallertradesizesandmoreliquidcredits,wherealgorithmic(or“algo”)pricegenerationandorderflow

werebecomingincreasinglycommon.Themostused

e-tradingprotocolremainedRequest-for-Quote(“RFQ”).However,participantsconfirmedagrowingadoptionof

otherprotocols,inparticularAll-to-All(“A2A”)andPortfolioTrading(“PT”).

Despitethechallengesofrecentyears,whichsawreducedvolumeinbothprimaryissuanceandsecondarytrading

intheAsiainternationalbondmarket,intervieweesare

broadlyoptimisticfor2024,notingthatwearealready

beginningtoseesignsofapick-up.Chinawillremaina

criticalpartoftheequation,andthemarkethopeisthat

thePBoCwillbeabletostabilisethepropertysectorwhilealsostimulatingeconomicgrowth.Meanwhile,lowerUSyieldscouldseemoreAsiancorporatescomingbackto

theinternationalmarket.

TheAsianInternationalBondMarkets:DevelopmentandTrends-March20245

Introduction

Whythereport?

ICMApublishedthefirsteditionofTheAsianInternationalBondMarkets:DevelopmentandTrendsinMarch2021andreleasedthesecondversionandthirdversionin

2022and2023respectively.Thisfourtheditionofthe

reportaimstoprovideglobalmarketstakeholderswith

anupdatedoverviewofthemarketdynamicsoftheAsianinternationalbondmarketsandincludesananalysisof

salientmarketeventsthroughtheendof2023.

Scopeandmethodology

ThefocusofthisreportistheinternationalbondmarketinAsia2,meaningdebtsecuritiesissuedinamarket

outsidetheissuer’shomejurisdiction,whichcouldbeintheEuro,globalorforeignmarkets,withoutnecessarilydependingonwhetherabondisclearedoninternationalcentralsecuritiesdepositories(“ICSDs”).Thisresearchcoversnotonlythetrendsinprimaryissuanceinthe

internationalbondmarketsbutalsosecondarymarketstructuresandtrendsinrecentyears.

Inthisreport,ICMAcombinesquantitativedataanalysiswithqualitativeinputfromselectedmarketparticipants.Thequantitativedataistakenfromavarietyof

sourcesnotedwithintherelevanttextandcharts.The

qualitativenarrativesweresynthesisedfrominterviews

withinvestmentbanks,investors,tradingvenues,and

marketinfrastructures(alistofparticipatinginstitutions

isprovidedintheacknowledgements).Interviewswere

conductedfromJanuarytoMarch2024.ICMAisgratefultotheHongKongMonetaryAuthority(“HKMA”)fortheirsignificantsupportinthequantitativedatacollectionandanalysis,aswellasforguidanceinsettingtheoverall

themesinthisreport.

AboutICMA

Forover50yearsICMAanditsmembershaveworkedtogethertopromotethedevelopmentoftheinternational

capitalandsecuritiesmarkets,pioneeringtherules,

principlesandrecommendationswhichhavelaidthe

foundationsfortheirsuccessfuloperation.Inpursuitofitsobjectives,ICMAbringstogethermembersfromallsegmentsofthewholesaleandretaildebtsecurities

markets,throughregionalandsectoralmember

committees,andfocusesonacomprehensiverange

ofmarketpracticeandregulatoryissueswhichimpactallaspectsofinternationalmarketfunctioning.ICMA

prioritisesthreecorefixedincomemarketareas–

primary,secondary,repoandcollateral:withtwocross-cuttingthemesofsustainablefinanceandFinTechand

digitalisation.ICMAcurrentlyhasover620membersactiveinallsegmentsofinternationaldebtcapitalmarketsin68jurisdictionsglobally.Amongourmembersareprivateandpublicsectorissuers,banksandsecuritiesdealers,assetandfundmanagers,insurancecompanies,lawfirms,

capitalmarketinfrastructureprovidersandcentralbanks.ICMAisanot-for-profitassociation(“Verein”)undertheSwissCivilCode.TheAssociationisheadquarteredin

Zurich,withofficesinLondon,Paris,BrusselsandHongKongandregisteredintheZurichCommercialRegister.

2ThedefinitionofAsiamaydifferovertimewithrespecttotheinclusionorexclusionofcertainfrontiermarkets.Pleaserefertothefulldefinitionsattheendofthereport.

TheAsianInternationalBondMarkets:DevelopmentandTrends-March20246

PrimaryMarkets

Macroeconomicdevelopments

Apartfrommarketdynamicsandgeopoliticalfactors,theglobalinterestrateenvironmentplayedafundamentalrolein

shapingtheAsianinternationalbondmarketsin2023.Inparticular,overthecourseof2023,theFedFundsrate(upper-band)washikedto5.50%(from0.25%inMarch2022),theECBMainRe-financingRateto4.50%(from0%inJune

2022)andBOEBankRateto5.25%(from0.1%inDecember2021)3.Globalinterestratesremainedatratherhighlevelsthroughouttheyear,withtheaverage10-yeargovernmentbondyields4stayingatabout2.70%foryear-end20235.Thehigh-interestrateenvironmentresultedinhigherborrowingcostsforAsianissuersintheAsianinternationalbondmarkets,whichcauseddomesticmarketstoberelativelymoreattractiveforfinancingorre-financing.WiththecontinualadoptionofmonetaryeasingpoliciesbyChinaandJapanincomparisontothemajoradvancedeconomiesintheWest,the

persistentinterest-ratedifferentialscontinuedtoimpactAsianissuers’calculationswhendeterminingthecurrencymixforbondissuance.

Onthedemandside,institutionalandprofessionalinvestorsinAsiasoughthigher-yieldinginstrumentsinresponsetothehighinterestrateenvironment.However,theirriskappetiteremainedlowunderanincreasinglycomplicatedgeopoliticallandscape(includingheightenedtradetensions,politicaluncertaintiesandregionalconflicts),whichwasreflectedby

theircontinualpreferencesforinvestment-gradebondsoverhigh-yieldbondstoseekbetterrisk-adjustedreturns.TheunresolvedsituationofChina’spropertymarketdownturnanditsspilloverstotheeconomyalsorenderedinvestors

cautiousaboutaddinghigh-yieldbondsfromcertainsectorstotheirportfolios.

Despitethesepressures,Asiacontinuedtoseeresilienceinsustainablebonds(green,social,sustainabilityandsustainability-linkedbonds)aswellasinnovationsindigitalbonds.

InternationalbondsgloballyandinAsia

Foranyjurisdiction,theinternationalbondmarketusuallydevelopsafterissuersbecomeseasonedintheirdomesticcapitalmarkets.Unlikelocalcurrencybondsinthedomesticmarket,internationalbondsaremostlysoldonlyto

institutionalinvestorsandindividualprofessionalinvestors.

Reasonsforraisingfundsthroughinternationalbondsincludebutarenotlimitedto,meetingforeigncurrencyfunding

needs,managingfundingcostsandstructure,diversifyingfundingchannelsandinvestorbase,andraisingprofileintheinternationalmarkets.Forinvestors,internationalbondmarketsareawaytoobtainexposuretoemergingmarketcreditswithouttheneedtoestablishaccesstoindividualdomesticmarketsormanageforeignexchangerisksassociatedwithlocalcurrencies.Investingininternationalbondsmayalsohelpwithportfoliodiversificationandyieldenhancement,

especiallyinemergingmarketssuchasAsia.

TheAsianinternationalbondmarkethasexperiencedsignificantgrowthoverrecentyears.Between2006and2021,

issuancevolumeofinternationalbondsfromAsianissuersgrewatanannualrateofabout11%onaverage,higherthanthatoftheAmericas,EMEAandOceania(Figure1).AnnualissuancevolumepeakedataboutUS$626billionin2021.Althoughtheissuancevolumedeclinedconsiderablyin2022and2023,theaverageissuancevolumeoftherecenttwoyearswasstillhigherthantheaverageofUS$334billionbetween2006and2023.

3DatafromBloomberg

4Countriescover:Australia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Ireland,Italy,Japan,Netherlands,Portugal,Spain,Sweden,theUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates.

5DatafromTradeweb

TheAsianInternationalBondMarkets:DevelopmentandTrends-March20247

Figure1:GlobalInternationalBondIssuance-byRegion(DealNationality6)

1%1%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

52%

51%

51%

44%

43%

47%

43%

44%

63%

66%

67t%

3%

3%

2%

4%

4%

6%

9%

7,000,000

6,000,000

5,000,000

InMillionsofUS$

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

0

41%

42%

42%

41%

10t%

10%

61%

54%

11%

7%

58%

8%

8%

10%

11%

8%

7%

50%

47%

44%

48%

2%

39%

41%

39%

40%

34%

40%

36%

46%

30%

32%

46%

47%

44%

28%

200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

AmericasAsia

EMEA

Oceania

Supranational

Source:ICMAanalysisusingDealogicdata(January2024)

Reviewingtheglobalinternationalbondmarketssince2006,internationalbondissuancefromissuersintheAmericasandEMEAhasbeenaccountingforabout90%oftotalissuancevolumeonaverage.Amongthetwotopregions,therehasbeenageneraldeclineintheshareofEMEAissuancefromaboutabove60%tocloseto40%inrecentyears,

whiletheshareofbondswithissuerslocatedintheAmericashasgrownfrombelow30%tonowcloseto50%.DespiteasignificantincreaseintheshareofAsianissuancefromlowsingledigitsin2006tohighsingledigitsin2023,the

percentageisstillsmallcomparedtothatoftheAmericasandEMEA.

Amongstallbondissuance(includingdomesticandcross-border)fromAsianissuers,internationalbondissuanceonlymadeupabout7%in2006.InternationalbondissuancefromAsianissuersstartedtopickupin2012andaccountedfor12%-20%from2019to2023(Figure2).Comparedwiththeworld’saverageofabove35%inthemostrecentfouryears,thepercentageofinternationalbondissuanceamongallbondissuancefromAsianissuershasremainedlow.

6ByDealogic’sdefinition,“dealnationality”referstothejurisdictioninwhichmostoftheborrower’sbusinessestakeplace.Throughoutthisreport,boththewords“nationality”and“region”aredefinedwiththesamemeaningasdealnationality,unlessotherwisespecified.

TheAsianInternationalBondMarkets:DevelopmentandTrends-March20248

Figure2:PercentagesofInternationalBondIssuanceoverTotalIssuancefromGlobalandAsianIssuers

50

45

40

35

30

%

25

20

15

10

5

0

200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

WorldAsia5per.Mov.Avg.(World)5per.Mov.Avg.(Asia)

Source:ICMAanalysisusingDealogicdata(January2024)

Inthecontextoftheinternationalbondmarkets,participantsandoperationsoftencovermultiplejurisdictions,and

geographicalanalysisoftenpresentsmethodologicalissues.Thispaperaimstopresentmultipleperspectiveson“where”abondtransactiontakesplace,inthespiritofprovidingamorenuancedpictureofoverallregionalmarketactivity.The

analysisfirstcoversthelocationofarrangement,secondlythelocationofthelisting,andsubsequentlytheissuer’smajorplaceofbusiness(the“dealnationality”).

Arrangement

Bankintermediariesandarrangershelptoensurethatissuershaveaccesstoarangeofinvestorsbothdomesticallyand

internationallyandachieveoptimalpricingintheprimarymarket.Arrangersalsoaimtofacilitatebothastableinvestorbaseaswellassecondaryliquidityforpricediscovery,forthebenefitoftheirclientissuers.Bondarrangingactivitiesinclude

originationandstructuring,book-building,legalandtransactiondocumentationpreparation,andsaleanddistribution.

Althoughmanyfactorsinfluencethelocationofarrangementforbonds(suchasthecredibilityofafinancialcentre’sfinancialregulatorysystem,thedegreeofjudicialindependenceandtheenforceabilityofcontractswhenlegalandoperationalrisksofexecutingbondissuanceareconcerned),thelocationofthemandatedleadingbanks(andtheirteamsofprofessionalsacrossfunctionsofinvestmentbanking,trading,legal,andoperations)isultimatelydeterminative.

Lookingatthemainlocationofarrangement7forinternationalbondissuancefromAsianissuers,thedynamicsevolved

fromtheU.S.andtheU.K.accountingforacombinedshareofabout80%in2006toabout45%in2023,mostlydueto

theriseofAsianfinancialcentresascentresforinternationalbondtransactions.Morespecifically,theshareofAsia-basedarrangementsgrewfromabout10%in2006to30–40%overthelastfouryears(withthesharessurpassingthecombinedsharesoftheU.S.andU.K.).

Before2010,mandatesforinternationalbondissuancefromAsianissuersweremostlygrantedtoUK-basedandUS-

basedbanks.Since2010,bankslocatedinAsia,especiallyinHongKong,havesecuredanincreasingshareofinternational

7Foranalyticalpurposes,abondisarrangedinalocationifithostsmostofthearrangingactivities,whereinmorethan50%oftheleadbanksofadealarebased.Iftwo

jurisdictionstieforadeal,bothjurisdictionswillbeattributedbytakinganaverageofthenominalamountofthebond.Fordealshavingnoemergenceofdominantjurisdictions,theyareclassifiedunderthecategoryof“consortium”.Asakeynote,ICMAfollowsthe“LeadBankNationality”classificationbyDealogicduringtheanalysis.

TheAsianInternationalBondMarkets:DevelopmentandTrends-March20249

bondissuancefromAsianjurisdictions.ThegrowthofAsia-basedarrangementshaslargelycorrelatedwiththeriseof

HongKongasaglobaloffshoreRMBbusinesscentreandhubforChineseinternationalissuance.BankslocatedinHongKong,equippedwithexperiencenavigatingthroughpracticesoninternationalbondissuanceandtheabilitytodistributetoglobalinvestorbases,arenormallyperceivedtobeenjoyingcloserbankingrelationshipswithChineseissuers.Overthelastdecade,HongKonghasconsistentlyrankedasthenumberonelocationforarranginginternationalbondissuance

fromAsianissuers8,exceptin2023whereHongKong(with23%)arrangedslightlylessissuancethantheU.S.(with26%),primarilyduetoadeclineinChineseinternationalissuance.

Figure3:InternationalBondIssuanceinAsia(DealNationality)-ByMainLocationofArrangement

700,000

600,000

500,000

InMillionsofUS$

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

France

HongKong

(China)

Japan

SingaporeTaiwan

(China)United

Kingdom

UnitedStatesOther-Asia

Other-restoftheworld

ConsortiumUnknown

Source:ICMAanalysisusingDealogicdata(January2024)

Listing

Thelistingofabondonanexchangeintheoryfacilitatesvisibilityandtradingonthesecondarymarket,justaswith

equities.Inpractice,listedbondsintheAsianinternationalbondmarketaretradedoff-exchangequitecommonly,asis

thecaseintherestoftheworld.Between2006and2023,mostinternationalbondissuancefromAsianissuers(about

74%byvolumeonaverage)waslisted.WhiletherearemultiplereasonsastowhyAsianissuerswouldliketohavetheirinternationalbondissuancelisted,oneofthekeyreasonsisthatlistedsecuritiesarepreferredbyinternationalinstitutionalinvestorsbecauseofincreasedtransparencyondealdocumentation,requirementsonongoingdisclosures,enhanced

governanceprovidedbythelistingapprovalprocess,andthepotentialforamoreliquidsecondarymarketforon-

exchangetrading.Whilesomefundmanagersaremandatedtoinvestonlyinlistedsecurities,someinvestorsonlyinvestininternationalbondslistedondomesticexchangesasconstrainedbytheirinvestmentlimits.

Fromanissuer’sperspective,thechoi