2025年全球私募市場展望報告

INSICHTS

JANUARY2025

PRIVATEEQUITYWIRE

GLOBALOUTLOOK2025

FOREWORD

emerging–themiddlemarketbeingone,much-

citedexample.Andtheastronomicalgrowthofcreditasanassetclasscontinues,asanexpandingpoolofcapitalstratifiesintonewtranchesandsub-segmentsacrossportfolios.

Underpinningallthesedevelopments,privatemarketscontinuetobeaneffectiveforceforchange–asinvestorsandassetmanagersalignthemselveswithglobalmegatrendssuchasdigitalisation,ageingpopulations,supply-chainredevelopment,theenergytransition,andmanyothers.

We’recertainlyexcitedtomaptheongoingevolutionoftheindustry,andwouldwelcomeasmanyinsiderperspectivesaspossibletohelpusonthisjourney.Fornow,herearesomeofthebiggestnamesinPE,generouslygivingustheirviewonwhereweare,andwhatwestandtogainin2025.

Could2025beayearofexits?Manyoftheworld’stopmanagersthinkso,astheM&Amachineryeasesbackintoaction.TheFTreportsthattheUSIPOmarketissettorally–fuelledinlargepartbyanticipatedpolicyshifts–creatingamuch-neededoutletfortheglobalassetlogjaminprivateequity(PE).

Arecord-breakingsecondarymarketisalsogreasingthedealwheels–thepressingneedforliquidityhasdispersedmuchofthestigmathatsurroundedthespace,withheightenedawarenessandsophisticationintheGP-ledsegmentpoweringunprecedentedgrowth.Mostofthecontributorstothisreporthighlightthisasarichveininthemarket.

Still,asweanticipateahealthierdeallandscape,challengesofthepastfewyearshavelefttheirlegacy.

Moremanagersarefocusedontangible,operation-basedvaluecreationstrategies.Arisingnumberofhigh-opportunitynichesare

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CONTENTS

SECTION1:MARKETOVERVIEWSECTION3:SECONDARIES

CDPQ5HOLLYPORTCAPITAL18

AMERICANSECURITIES6CLIPWAY19

FEDERATEDHERMESPRIVATEEQUITY7CHURCHILLASSETMANAGEMENT20

BRIGHTSTARCAPITALPARTNERS8CAPITALDYNAMICS21

SCHRODERSCAPITAL9

TIKEHAUCAPITAL10

SECTION4:CREDIT

NJORDPARTNERS11

PARTNERSCAPITAL23

BARINGSPRIVATECREDIT24

SECTION2:VALUECREATIONORIXCORPORATIONUSA25

BCPARTNERS13

MONTAGU14

SECTION5:MEGATRENDS

CORSAIRCAPITAL15

BLUEEARTHCAPITAL27

QUILVESTCAPITALPARTNERS16

STAFFORDCAPITALPARTNERS28

STONEPEAK29

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MARKETOVERVIEW

Howsomeoftheworld’sleadingassetmanagersand

allocatorsperceivethescopeforgrowthinprivatemarketsin

2025andbeyond

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ALBRECHTVONALVENSLEBEN

MANAGINGDIRECTOR,PRIVATEEQUITYEUROPE

CDPQ

2

024markedamixedyetimprovinglandscapeforEuropeanPE.Weexpectedachallenging

marketfollowingthedisruptionofpreviousyears,butnowseeimprovedmomentum–especiallyforcycle-testedinvestorslikeCDPQ–toaccessuniqueopportunitiesasweheadinto2025.

Thestartoftheyearwasmarkedbylimitedactivityinprivatemarketsashighinterestrates,inflation,andvaluationgapscontinuedtohamperdealmaking.Inlinewiththebroadermarket,weusedthisperiodtofocusonenhancingoperatingperformanceandcashflowgenerationinourportfolio,ensuringweweresetupforsuccesswhenconditionsimproved.

Throughthesummermonths,wesawincreasingactivityinprivatemarkets,drivenbyaneasingofmonetarypolicyacrosstheEurozoneandUK,whichhelpeddriveinvestorconfidence.In

particular,assetsinthetechnology,healthcare,andsustainability-drivensectorsattractedinterest.WewereabletocapitaliseonthisdynamicviathedivestmentofTechem,aleadingproviderofenergyefficiencyservicestothebuildingecosystem,andaninvestmentinAareon,aEuropeanSaaSproviderforthepropertyindustry,alongsideourpartnerTPG.

Despiteanuncertainmacroeconomicandgeopoliticaloutlook,weanticipatetheuptickindealactivitytocontinue–andperhapsimprove–in2025.Thecombinationofsignificantaccumulateddrypowder,constructivedebtmarkets,andoptimismaroundtheIPOmarketispointingtonextyear‘unlocking’abacklogofassetsalesanddeployment.ThisisfurthersupportedbytheincreasingpressureonGPstodeliverDPIinanenvironmentofincreasingaveragehold

periods,whichwebelievewillprovideforexcitinginvestmentopportunities.

Ourfocusintheyearaheadwillbetopositionourselvesonaselectnumberofresilientassetsinthesoftware,healthcare,businessservicesandfinancialservicessectorsthataresupportedbyseculargrowthtrends–whichhasproventobeawinningstrategyforusacrosscycles,andwithwhichwehavebuiltastrongtrackrecord.

AsaminorityinvestorwithdirectinvestmentteamsandoperatingpartnersonthegroundacrossNorthAmerica,EuropeandtheAPACregion,weexpect2025toofferattractiveopportunitiesforustoactasfacilitatortounlocktransactionsontheonehand,andasavalue-addpartnerforourGPsandtargetbusinessesontheother.

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n2025,weanticipatesubstantialgrowthininvestmentopportunitiesintheindustrials

sector,supportedbyindustrialmacrotailwinds,afavourabledealenvironmentandarobustpipelineofopportunities.Fallinginterestrates–albeitnotclosetohistoricallows–andastrongdebtfinancingmarketindicatethatPEfirmsarelikelytoencounterhealthierconditionsfordealmakingthantheyhaveforseveralyears.

TRENDMAPPING

Severalmacroeconomicandindustry-specificfactorsunderpinourpositiveoutlook.

Intermsoflargertrends,USpowerdemandisprojectedtogrowforthefirsttimeinyears,withsomepointingtoacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of3%acrossresidential,commercial,industrial,andtransportationsectors.Thisexpectedreturntogrowthispartiallydrivenbythesteadyconstructionofnewdatacentres–atrendfuelled,inturn,bytheriseofartificialintelligence.Themovementpresentssignificantopportunities,notonlyfordatacentresthemselves,butalsoforancillarybusinessessuchastestingequipment,maintenanceprovidersandaftermarketparts.

Equally,theindustrialssectorislikelytobenefitfromtheongoingshiftbymanufacturerstowardsonshoringandnearshoringintheUS.

ThisisatrendthatstartedtogainmomentumduringtheCovidpandemicandhasbeenfurtheracceleratedbytheprospectoftariffsoninternationaltrade,aswellasfactorssuchasrisingtransportationcosts,areductioninleadtimesandconsumerdemandforlocallysourcedgoods.ThesehaveallcombinedtoincentiviseAmericanmanufacturerstoincreaselocalproductionratherthanrelyonpreviouslylow-costoverseasmarkets.

AlthoughbringingproductionbacktotheUSisacomplexandlong-termproject–newfacilitiesrequireextensivedesign,planning,permitting,andconstruction–webelievetherewillbegrowthin2025aseffortskickintohighergear.Wecanclearlyseethispropensitywithinourownportfolio.VibrantzTechnologies,forexample,whichproducescolourantsandadditivesforarangeofendmarkets,includingelectronics,automotiveandconstruction,isbuildinganewplantinMexicotosupportnewtechnologyitisdeveloping.Sub-sectorswithintheindustrialsspacehavetheirownspecificgrowthdrivers.Takeagriculturalchemicals,anindustrythathasfacedaprotracted

downcyclestemmingfrominflationarypressuresandaresultingdropindemand.

Asaresultofthesechallenges,wearestartingtoseelargerchemicalcompaniessellingoffnon-coreassetsandbusinessestoconcentrateon

coremarketssuchascornandsoybean.Thisrepositioningcreatesattractiveopportunitiesforinvestorswhohaveexpertiseandexperiencewithchemicals,particularlyinareasthathavebecometoonicheforthelargestplayers.

Inlightoftheanticipatedgrowthinmergersandacquisitionsactivity,ourindustrialsteamistakingahighlyselectiveapproach,prioritisingthosebusinesseswherewethinkwehaveauniqueinvestmentangleandcanmaximisethelikelihoodofsuccess.Thisappliesnotonlytoplatformacquisitions,butalsoforadd-onsinourcorefocusareassuchasspecialtychemicals,buildingproducts,andpowerandenergytransitionaswellasnicheindustrialmanufacturingbusinesses.

Inshort,theconfluenceofmacroeconomictrendsandsector-specificgrowthdriverssuggeststhat2025willbeabusyyearforindustrials.

SCOTTWOLFF

PRESIDENT&MANAGINGDIRECTOR

AMERICANSECURITIES

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BROOKSHARRINGTON

CHIEFINVESTMENTOFFICER

FEDERATED

HERMESPRIVATE

EQUITY

T

hePEindustryisheadingintothenewyearagainstahealthiereconomicbackdrop,with

theUSdrivingglobalgrowthforward.Inflationisnolongertheproblemitwas12-24monthsago,andtheFederalReservehasalreadybeguncuttingrates.PEactivityhasfollowedsuitwithimprovingvolumesacrossdealflow,creditavailability,andexitactivity.TheuncertaintyaroundtheUSelectionisoverwithamajorstockmarketrallyonTrump’sfirstdayaspresidentelect–apromisingsign.

PEisnowamatureassetclassandinvestors

needtobedisciplinedintheircapitaldeploymentin2025inordertocontinuegeneratingexpectedreturns.In2024,valuationsandleverageappearedtohaveplateauedfromtheirpost-2021peaksandrevenuemultipleshavecomedownamidafocusonprofitabilityandcapital-efficientgrowth.The‘democratisation’ofPEwillcontinuetogathermomentumasthewealthandretailmarketofferstheindustrythelargestopportunityforraisingnewcapital.

FOCUSONRETURNS

Liquidityremainsconstrainedwithexitactivityatmulti-yearlows.Theindustryappearsmoreoptimisticfor2025,andthereisagrowingsensethatactivityisnowpickingup,withvolumesrisingandspreadsnarrowing.ThePEindustryhas

undergoneaperhapsirreversiblemindsetshiftwithregardstoreturns.Formanyyears,theinternalrateofreturn(IRR)wastheindustry’sdefaultmeasureofperformanceandsufficientinaworldwherecashwascheapandexitroutesweregenerallyopen.Inrecentyears,thepersistentdisconnectbetweenbuyersandsellersmeansthataportfolio’spapervaluemaynotcometofruition.

Thisyear,wehaveseenthatwhenLPsareevaluatingperformance,theyincreasinglywanttoknowwhethertheseassetscanberealisedattheircurrentvaluation.ManyLPsarethereforenolongerwillingtoacceptthehighestIRRasthesolemeasureofafund’ssuccess.TheDPIratio–whichmeasuresactualcashreturnsrelativeto

theinvestedcapital–willcontinuetobecomeanincreasinglysignificantmetricforinvestorsoverthenext12months.

AREASOFOPPORTUNITY

Thelowermid-marketcontinuestobeanexcitingareathatislessefficient,crowdedandintermediated,withsignificantopportunityforoperationalvalueadd–tomovetheneedleandhelpcompaniesreachscaleandrewardinvestorswithoutsizedinvestmentreturns.

Weexpecttoseeanactiveadd-onmarketinEurope,aslongerholdperiodscreateopportunitiesforGPs

tointroducemid-cycleco-investmentopportunities.Buy-and-buildstrategiesareexpectedtobeapopularvaluedriverinthepersistentlychallengingorganicgrowthenvironment.Further,weareseeinganumberofhighquality‘stranded’assetsinthepublicmarkets,particularlythosesmallerbusinessesthatstruggletoattractattentionfromequitiesinvestors.Wethereforeexpecttoseerisinginterestfromsponsors,withtake-privateopportunitiesaccountingforagreaterproportionofcapitaldeploymentin2025.

HOTSECTORS

AIdominatedtheconversationin2024,andwithPEbarelyscratchingthesurfacethisyear,thattrendwillmostlikelycontinue,althoughit’strueimpactcontinuestobedebated.Regardless,technologyandinnovationwillcontinuetopresentsomeofthemostattractiveinvestmentopportunitiesacrosstheUS.

Europewillcontinuetoleadonaddressingclimatechange,presentingasignificantinvestmentopportunitybackedupbyregulatorytailwinds,governmentsupportandinstitutionalappetite.CrossborderinvestmentinChinaremainsmuted

duetogeopoliticaluncertaintyandasaresult,othermarketsinAsiawillbenefitasaportionofthatcapitalwillflowtoIndia,Japan,andSoutheastAsia.

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SECTION1:MARKETOVERVIEW

n2024,roughlyhalfoftheworld’spopulationvotedinnationalelections,andinmany

instances,policymakerswereelectedwithamandateforchange.Astheseofficialstakeofficeandimplementtheirvariousagendas,webelieve2025willprovetobeayearofsignificantuncertaintyandvolatility.

AtBrightstarCapitalPartners,wearelong-terminvestorsinthemiddlemarket,andwebelievethecurrentenvironmentwilloffersignificantopportunitiesforthosewhocanseparatethesignalfromthenoise.

Withinourtargetrangeforinvestments,weseethreemajortailwindsheadinginto2025.First,middlemarketbusinesseshistoricallyhavedonewellinvolatiletimes–atrendweanticipatewillcontinue.It’srarelypublicised,butmiddlemarketcompaniescreatedover2millionjobsintheUSduring2007-2010,whilelargebusinessesshednearly4millionjobs,accordingtoa2011reportbyGECapitalandFisherCollegeofBusiness.Acombinationofsmallersize,shorterpathstodecisionsandcloserproximitytotheircustomerscanenablemiddlemarketbusinessestobenimble–andinthecaseoffamily-ownedbusinesses,deep

pocketsandalong-termviewcanpositionthemtogrowthroughacquisitionswhencompetitorsstruggle.

Second,thegenerationalwealthtransferwillcontinueitsinevitableascent.KnightFrankforecaststhatnearly$90tninwealthwillchangehandsintheUSaloneoverthenexttwodecades,withasimilardynamictakingplaceglobally.Yet,inBrightstar’smostrecent“PulseofFamilyBusiness”research,57%ofbusinessownersareunsureifthenextgenerationwilljointhebusiness,andjustoveronethirdsaythenextgenerationisready.Webelievethesedynamicswillfacilitateastrongpipelineofqualityfamilybusinesseslookingforapartner.

Third,increasedvolatilitycanleadmiddlemarketbusinessownerstoproactivelypursuepartnerswithextensiveoperationalexperience.Whetheritisreconfiguringsupplychainsinthefaceofpotentialtariffs,stress-testingtraderoutesinthefaceofgeopoliticaluncertaintyorassessingthepotentialimpactofAIonthebusiness,itcanbedifficultformiddlemarketbusinessestomustertheresources

toturnthesechallengesintoopportunities.Everyday,ourteamspeakstofounders,families,and

entrepreneurswhounderstandthisdynamic,andareexcitedbythepotentialofpartneringwithPEfirmsthathaveplaybooksandprocessesinplace.Themarketstatisticsbearthisout–during2008-2010,USmiddlemarketdealsaccountedforanaverageof65%ofallbuyoutsbyvalue,comparedtoanaverageof60%intheyearsfollowingto2019.Again,duringthepeakoftheCovidpandemic,middlemarketdeals’shareofallUSbuyoutvalueroseto64%,comparedtoanaverageof54%inthefouryearsfollowingaccordingtoPitchbook.

Weareparticularlyexcitedaboutthelowermiddlemarket,wherecompaniesshowrevenuesofbelow$100m.Thosebusinesseshistoricallyhaveunder-investedintechnology,andnewcapitalcansuperchargetheirreadinessforAIanddigitalisation,allowingthemtorealisetheirfullpotentialatanacceleratedpace.

In2025,welookforwardtoayearofopportunityforPEfirmswithalong-termoutlookanddeepoperationalexpertise,andaparticularlyexcitingyearforthepartnershipbetweenPEandmiddlemarketbusinesses.

ANDREWWEINBERG

FOUNDER&CEO

BRIGHTSTAR

CAPITAL

PARTNERS

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NILSRODE

CHIEFINVESTMENTOFFICER

SCHRODERSCAPITAL

2

025presentsapromisinglandscapeforprivatemarketinvestments,withfavourable

cyclealignmentsofferingreturnandincomepotential.

Amidgeopoliticaltensions,privatemarketsarekeyforportfolioresilience,anddespitepoliticalchanges,weforeseethetrendtowardsdecarbonisationcontinuingwithprivatemarketsplayingapivotalrole.

Buyoutvaluationshavedeclinedinthepastthreeyearswhilestockmarketshaveseenstrongrallies,insomecasesreachingrecordhighsin2024.Takentogether,thisenhancestherelativeattractivenessofprivateequityinvestments.Meanwhile,acorrectioninfundraisinghasbeenmostpronouncedforventurecapitalandsmalltomid-sizedbuyouts,makingthesesegmentsparticularlyappealingfornewinvestments.

Smallandmid-marketbuyoutsbenefitfromdirectsourcingfromfoundersandfamilies,andentrymultiplesthatremainmorethanfourtimesEBITDAbelowlargebuyouts.Additionally,thesmallandmid-marketrepresentsamorethan10timeslargerinvestmentuniversethanlargebuyouts.Thisbringsmoreopportunitiestocapturea‘complexitypremium’,whichreferstothepotentialtocapturehigherreturnsbyusingmanagerskilltoexecuteoncomplexandnuancedinvestmenttheses.

Venturecapitalhasundergoneahealthycorrectioninfundraising,followingtheexuberanceobservedduringthepandemic.Ontheotherhand,dealopportunitiesarebeingdrivenbytheriseofartificialintelligence(AI),withtheshareofventureinvestmentsinthissectorrisingfrom2%in2022toanestimated15%in2024.Wefindearly-stageAIopportunitiesparticularlyattractive,asvaluationsforlater-stageroundshaveincreasedsignificantlyin2024andarenowjust20%belowtheir2021peak.

Continuationfundspresentacompellingopportunityforaccessingprivateequity,duetolowcompetitionfromotherexitopportunitiesandhighdemandforliquidityfrominvestorsasdistributionsremainbelowhistoricaverages.

Onceasmallersegmentofthesecondariesmarket,continuationfunds–alsoknownasGP-ledsecondaries–nowcomprisearoundhalfoftheannualmarketvolume.Weexpectthisstronggrowthtopersistasmorefundmanagersleveragecontinuationfundstoextendholdperiodsandprovidenewcapitaltosupporthigh-qualitycompanies,whileprovidingvaluableliquiditysolutionstoexistinginvestors.

Inanincreasinglyvolatileeconomicandgeopoliticallandscape,privatemarketsdemonstrateuniqueresilienceduetotheirstructuralandstrategic

characteristics,differentiatedriskpremiaandlong-termconsiderations.Theseassetsofferabufferagainstpublicmarketfluctuations,providingstabilityamidpotentialmarketshocks.

Moreover,thankstoconcentratedinvestments

insectorsunderrepresentedinpublicmarkets,suchas,forexample,healthcare,renewableinfrastructure,disruptivetechnologyandmicrofinance,privatemarketsofferdifferentiatedexposuresthatprovidepositiveportfoliodiversification.Thissectormixenablesinvestorstocaptureuncorrelatedgrowth,furtherinsulatingagainstcyclicalrisks.

PEshoneduringcrisesofthelast25years,andhasdeliveredtwicetheoutperformanceinchallengingconditions.Amongotherthings,thisresiliencearisesfromadifferentindustrysectormixcomparedtopublicequities,andlong-termcapitalstructuresthatallowfundmanagerstoholdinvestmentsandcontinuetodeploythroughmarketdisruptions.Crucially,unlikepublicequities,PEavoidsdailypricefluctuations,offeringmorestablevaluationsbasedonassetfundamentals.

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A

sweenter2025,thePElandscapepresents

amixofopportunitiesandchallenges,shapedbymacroeconomicconditions,sector-specificdynamicsandgeopoliticaldevelopments.

AROBUSTENVIRONMENTFORM&A

AtTikehauCapital,weanticipateastrongyearforM&AactivitywithinPE,supportedbyseveralconvergingfactors.Manyfundsareholdingsignificantlevelsofundeployedcapital,ordrypowder,creatingasubstantialreservoirofliquidityforacquisitions.Atthesametime,recordlevelsofportfolioassetsrequiremonetisationtoprovidedistributionstoLPs.Combinedwithamorefavourablemacroeconomicenvironment,characterisedbydecreasinginterestratesandstableinflationexpectations,theconditionsfordealmakingarerobust.AddingtothispositiveoutlookistherelativestabilisationofthegeopoliticallandscapefollowingtheUSpresidentialelectionandareductioninglobaluncertainty.

STRATEGICGROWTHSECTORS

CertainsectorsinEuropestandoutasparticularlypromisingforPEinvestment,reflectingstrategicprioritiesoutlinedintheDraghiReport.Decarbonisationandtheenergytransitionremainhighontheagenda,withopportunitiesto

improveenergyavailabilityandefficiencyacrossthecontinent.Investmentsinrenewableenergy,storageandrelatedtechnologiesareexpectedtoattractsignificantcapitalasEuropeintensifiesitseffortstomeetsustainabilitygoals.Similarly,thedefencesectorispoisedforgrowth,drivenbyhigherdefencebudgetsinmajorEuropeannations.EveninascenariowhereconflictsinUkraineandtheMiddleEastcometoanend,increaseddemandforadvanceddefencetechnologiesandaerospacesolutionswillsustainactivityinthissector.Meanwhile,thetechnologysectorisexpectedtoexperiencesignificantinflowsasEuropeworkstoclosethetechnologygapwiththeUSandChina.Investmentsinareassuchasartificialintelligence,automation,anddigitalinfrastructurepromisetoenhanceproductivityandcompetitivenessacrosstheregion.

AtTikehauCapital,thesetrendsaligncloselywithourPEfocusareas.Historically,wehavefocusedonsectorssuchasdecarbonisation,aerospace,anddefenceandcybersecurity,allofwhicharepositionedtobenefitfromfavourablemacroeconomicandgeopoliticalconditions.

CONSUMER-DRIVENSECTORS

Notallsectorsareexpectedtothrivein2025.Luxuryandautomotivecompanies,particularlythosewithsignificantexposuretoEuropean

consumers,faceheadwinds.SofteningconsumerdemandwithinEurope,coupledwithpotentialdisruptionsinUSdemand,coulddampenperformance.Furthermore,thesesectorsaregrapplingwithcompetitivenesschallengesasproductsfromtheUSandChinagainmarketshare.ThesedynamicsunderscoretheimportanceofselectiveandstrategicinvestmentdecisionsasPEplayersnavigateayearofcontrastingfortunesacrossdifferentindustries.

THEYEARAHEAD

Lookingahead,2025offersalandscapewithsignificantopportunityforPEfirmspreparedtoleverageavailablecapital,adapttoshiftingtrendsandinvestinhigh-potentialsectors.ByaligningourinvestmentswithEurope’sstrategicprioritiesandfocusingontransformativesectors,TikehauCapitalremainscommittedtodeliveringvaluewhilecontributingtoeconomicresilienceandinnovation.AsPEcontinuestoplayapivotalroleinshapingtheglobaleconomy,theyearaheadpromisestobebothdynamicandtransformative,underscoringtheneedfordisciplinedyetforward-lookinginvestmentstrategies.

ROBERTOQUAGLIUOLO

DEPUTYHEADOFPRIVATEEQUITY

TIKEHAUCAPITAL

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ARVIDTROLLE

CO-FOUNDERANDPARTNER

NJORDPARTNERS

B

etween2009and2022,PEandthebroadermarketenjoyedaperiodofprosperitydriven

bylowinterestrates,whichprovidedcheapfinancing,multipleexpansion,andaliquidM&Amarket.Thisenvironmentofferedarelativelyhighcertaintyoftransactions,enablingPEfirmstocapitaliseonfavourableconditionsforgrowthandprofitability.However,overthelastcoupleofyears,thelandscapehasshifteddramaticallyduetoaconfluenceofeconomicandgeopoliticalfactors.

TheCovidpandemicandsubsequentlockdownstriggeredaseriesofeconomic