歐洲主權(quán)債務危機

1、 1樓 發(fā)表于 2010-5-1 19:56 |只看該作者 |倒序瀏覽 |打印 本帖最后由 majer 于 2010-5-6 18:10 編輯 Europes sovereign-debt crisis 歐洲主權(quán)債務危機 Acropolis now 衛(wèi)城啟示錄 The Greek debt crisis is spreading. Europe needs a bolder, broader solutionand quickly 希臘債務危機正在蔓延。歐洲急需更加果敢全面的方案 Apr 29th 2010 | From The Economist print edition THERE co

2、mes a moment in many debt crises when events spiral out of control. As panic sets in, bond yields lurch sickeningly upwards and fear spreads to shares and currencies. In September 2008 the failure of once-stellar Lehman Brothers almost brought down the worlds banking system. A decade earlier, Russia

3、s chaotic default on its sovereign debt rocked the credit markets, felling Long Term Capital Management, a hugely profitable American hedge fund. When the unthinkable suddenly becomes the inevitable, without pausing in the realm of the improbable, then you have contagion. 許多債務危機都發(fā)展到了事態(tài)失控的一刻。隨著恐慌的出現(xiàn)，

4、債券收益率陡然暴漲，股市和匯市隨之驚慌一片。2008年9月，曾經(jīng)的明星投行雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）的倒閉幾乎將整個世界銀行體系拖下水。1998年，俄羅斯混亂的主權(quán)債務違約引發(fā)信貸市場震蕩，摧垮了盈利能力很強的美國對沖基金長期資本公司（Long Term Capital Management）。當不可思議突然變成無法避免，在不可能的世界中狂飆突進，你不可能獨善其身。 The Greek crisisor more properly Europes sovereign-debt crisislooks dangerously close to that (see article)

5、. Even as negotiators from the European Union and the IMF are haggling with the Greek government over an ever-growing bail-out package, the yield on Greek debt has ballooned: two-year bonds soared towards 20% this week. Portugals borrowing costs jumped. Spains debt was downgraded, along with Portuga

6、ls and Greeces, and Italy came worryingly close to a failed debt auction. European stockmarkets have slumped and the euro itself fell to its lowest level in a year against the dollar. 希臘危機更確切地說是歐洲主權(quán)債務危機看起來已與此近在咫尺矣。就在希臘政府與歐盟（European Union）和國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）就不斷增長的救援計劃討價還價之時，希臘債券的收益率已經(jīng)一飛沖天：2年期債券收益率本周朝著20%

7、飆漲。葡萄牙的借貸成本也有所跳漲。西班牙緊步希葡兩國后塵，遭遇債務評級下調(diào)，意大利則正為債券走向流拍而憂心忡忡。歐洲股市跳水，而歐元對美元匯率則跌至一年以來最低點。 The road into Hades 墮入地獄 It will strike some as mystifying that a small, peripheral economy should suddenly threaten the worlds biggest economic area. Yet, though it is only 2.6% of euro-zone GDP, Greece sounds three

8、warnings that reach far beyond its borders. 一個小小的外圍經(jīng)濟體能在一夜之間威脅到全球最大的經(jīng)濟區(qū)域，這看起來有點不可思議。然而，盡管GDP只占整個歐元區(qū)的2.6%，希臘身上至少有三點警示影響遠遠超出了國界。 The first is economic. Greece has become a symbol of government indebtedness. This crisis began last October when its new government admitted that its predecessor had falsif

9、ied the national accounts. It is labouring under a budget deficit of 13.6% and a stock of debt equal to 115% of GDP. It cannot grow out of trouble because of fiscal retrenchment and its lack of export prowess. It cannot devalue, because it is in the euro zone. And yet its people seem unwilling to en

10、dure the cuts in wages and services needed to make the economy competitive. In short, Greece looks bust. 首先是經(jīng)濟。希臘是政府債務過重的典型。此次危機之肇始在去年10月，新任政府承認前任對國民賬戶做了手腳，自己所接手的是占GDP13.6%的財政赤字和115%的債務存量。由于財政支出已經(jīng)削減，加上出口缺乏競爭力，新政府無法帶領希臘走出困境。由于希臘使用歐元，因而無法采取貨幣貶值措施。而希臘人民似乎也不愿為提升國家競爭力而忍受工資及公共服務縮水。簡言之，希臘看上去要破產(chǎn)。 Few, if an

11、y, European countries suffer from all of Greeces ills, but many scare investors. Portugal has a high budget deficit and is chronically uncompetitive. Spain has a low stock of debt, but it seems unable to restructure its economy. So too Italy, which is heavily indebted to boot. Non-euro-zone Britain

12、has let its currency fall, but its budget deficit is unnerving. 歐洲沒有哪個國家像希臘那樣問題多多，但令投資者深感不安的卻不少。葡萄牙預算赤字水平很高且長期缺乏競爭力。西班牙雖然債務存量很低，但似乎無法重組其經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)。意大利的情況和西班牙差不多，而且歐洲之靴已深深地踩入了債務泥淖之中。不屬歐元區(qū)的英國雖已將英鎊貶值，但其預算赤字也令人擔憂。 The second lesson is political. Two weeks ago, having concluded that an eventual Greek restructu

13、ring was all but inevitable, we said Europes leaders had “three years to save the euro”. We presumed that they would quickly get a proposed 45 billion ($60 billion) deal to stave off an imminent and chaotic Greek default, buying time for an orderly rescheduling and for the other weak economies to be

14、gin overdue structural reforms. We overestimated their common sense. 其次是政治。兩周前，本刊認為希臘最終難逃重組的命運，而歐洲領導人有“三年時間來拯救歐元”。我們推測他們將迅速提出一個450億歐元的計劃，以避免立刻發(fā)生混亂的希臘違約，從而為希臘有序地進行債務重新安排、以及其他疲弱經(jīng)濟體進行亡羊補牢的結(jié)構(gòu)改革贏得時間。我們高估了他們的共識。 The chief culprit is Germany. All along, it has tried to have it every wayto back Greece, but

15、to punish it for its mistakes; to support the Greek economy, but not to spend any money doing so; to treat this as just a Greek problem, when German banks and German citizens, who lend to Greece, stand to lose money too. German voters do not favour aiding Greece. But rather than explain to them why

16、it is in Germanys interest, the chancellor, Angela Merkel, has run scared of upsetting them before a big regional election on May 9th. 德國是主要障礙。它始終堅持多手抓，多手都要硬既要援助希臘，又要求希臘為其錯誤受到懲罰；既要支持希臘的經(jīng)濟，又不愿意為此支出；將此視為僅是希臘的問題，而不顧德國銀行和德國人民作為希臘的貸款人也會因此受到損失。德國選民不支持援助希臘?？偫砟藸栆参茨芟蜻x民解釋援助行動符合德國利益，唯恐在5月9日地方大選即將到來之際將其惹惱。 Pla

17、ying for time has backfired. Now the mooted rescue plan has climbed above 100 billion because no private money is available. The longer euro-zone governments dither, the more lenders doubt whether their promises to save Greece are worth anything. Each time politicians blame “speculators” (see articl

18、e), investors wonder if they understand how bad things are (or indeed that investors have a choice). Euro-zone leaders initially refused to seek IMF help because it would be humiliating. Their ineptitude has done far more than their eventual decision to call in the IMF to damage the euro. 當斷不斷，必受其害。

19、目前，討論中的救援計劃已膨脹至1000億歐元以上，因為沒有私人資金愿意參與其中。歐元區(qū)各國躑躅越久，就有越多貸款人對其承諾拯救希臘的可靠性產(chǎn)生懷疑。政客每一次對“投機者”的指責都令投資者都懷疑他們究竟是否明白事情有多糟糕（或者明白投資者可是有選擇的）。歐元區(qū)領導人起先拒絕向IMF尋求幫助，認為此舉令其蒙羞。如此舉措失當對歐元造成的傷害高出最終求助IMF之決定遠甚。 This political and economic failure leads to the third Greek warning: that contagion can spread through a large numb

20、er of routes. A run on Greek banks is possible. So is a “sudden stop” of capital to other weaker euro-zone countries. Firms and banks in Spain and Portugal could find themselves shut out of global capital markets, as investors jitters spread from sovereign debt. Europes inter-bank market could seize

21、 up, unsure which banks would be hit by sovereign defaults. Even Britain could suffer, especially if the May 6th election is indecisive. 第三點警示由政治和經(jīng)濟失策共同導致： 危機之傳染可以通過多個擴散途徑。希臘銀行可能發(fā)生擠兌。流向其他歐元區(qū)較弱國家的資本也可能“突然斷流”。隨著源自主權(quán)債務的投資者緊張情緒逐漸蔓延，西班牙和葡萄牙的公司和銀行可能將發(fā)現(xiàn)自己被排除在全球資本市場之外。由于無法弄清哪些銀行會受到主權(quán)債務違約的沖擊，歐洲銀行間市場可能陷入停頓。甚至

22、英國也可能難逃牽連，特別是若5月6日的選舉不能產(chǎn)生決定性結(jié)果的話。 What then is to be done? The mounting crisisand the fact that Greece will almost certainly not pay everybody back on timewill renew some calls to abandon it. That would spell chaos for Greece, European banks and other European countries: the effect would indeed be L

23、ehman-like. Hence the necessity, even at this stage, of a show of financial force, linked to the construction of a stronger firewall between Greece and Europes other shaky countries. The priority for European policymakers is to do the same as governments eventually did with the banks: to get ahead o

24、f the crisis and to convince investors that they will spend whatever is necessary. 那么人們可以做什么呢？不斷惡化的危機以及希臘幾乎肯定無法按時償付全部債權(quán)人之事實會讓任其自生自滅的聲音重現(xiàn)。這意味著希臘、歐洲銀行、歐洲各國都將陷入混亂：其影響正如初雷曼兄弟之倒閉。因此，即使事態(tài)已發(fā)展到當前階段，顯示金融力量仍是絕對必要的，這與在希臘與其他搖搖欲墜的歐洲國家之間建立一道防火墻息息相關。歐洲政策制定者的當務之急與政府在雷曼兄弟倒閉時對銀行的最終做法完全一樣：先危機之動而動，并使投資者相信其在必要之時絕對不會有所吝惜

25、。 and the expensive way back 回頭之路代價沉重 The economics starts with the politics. Europe will not stem this crisis unless its decision-making apparatus is overhauled and Germany radically changes its tune. Mrs Merkel needs to go on German television and explain to her people what is at stakelaying out h

26、ow much Germany has gained from the euro and what it has to lose from a cascade of chaotic sovereign defaults. Germans need to understand the risks to their banking system and their prosperity. They need to understand that stemming Greeces debt crisis is less an act of charity than of self-interest.

27、 However unfair it seemsand the frugal Germans are as furious about the profligate Greeks as the rest of the world was about bankersa bail-out is justifiable on the same logic: doing nothing would cost them even more. 經(jīng)濟隨政治之動而動。若決策機制不能徹底改善，或者德國的態(tài)度不能有根本轉(zhuǎn)變，歐洲就無力阻擋此次危機。默克爾應該通過電視向其人民分清利害辨明德國已從歐元中得到獲益幾多，

28、又將在這一連串混亂的主權(quán)違約中損失幾何。德國人民需要明白其銀行體系和國家繁榮面臨何種風險。他們需要明白阻止希臘債務危機并非做善事，而是為自己著想。不論多不公平勤儉節(jié)約的德國人民對驕奢淫逸的希臘人出離憤怒，正如世界人民對銀行家出離憤怒一樣同理可證救助希臘正是明智之舉：什么都不做只會令他們損失更重。 The resolve cannot stop at Germanys borders. Financial markets have no idea who is in charge. Europes Byzantine decision-making structure does not help

29、 but Germany needs to ensure that decisions are reached fast, that Europe speaks with one voiceand that co-ordination with the IMF is smooth. As a way to convince financial markets that the political weather has changed, the euro zone should set up a single crisis-management committee, with the powe

30、r to take decisions. 德國不應該成為救助決心的障礙。金融市場無法決定應該由誰出頭。歐洲的拜占庭式?jīng)Q策結(jié)構(gòu)于事無補，但德國需要確保決策迅速做出，確保歐洲以一個聲音說話并確保以與IMF精誠合作。為使金融市場相信歐洲政治風向已有所變動，歐元區(qū)應該成立一個單一的危機管理委員會來統(tǒng)領決策權(quán)。 Political resolve wont work unless the underlying economics make sense. The first test of this is the Greek package. In return for fiscal and struct

31、ural adjustments that give the economy a hope of stabilising its debts, this must provide enough money to prevent a forced default. Up to better to err by offering too much. But 150 billion may be needed over the next three yearsthe firebreak between Greece and the other embattled sovereigns of the

32、euro zone is even more important. In economic terms, that should not be too hard to justify. Despite their problems, no a it has in the greatest danger, but is country other than Greece is manifestly bust. Portugal better history of fiscal adjustment which, under plausible assumptions, could allow i

33、ts debt to stabilise at a manageable level. Spain and Italy could be made insolvent by a long period of high interest rates. But none has the near-inevitability of Greece. 政治決心能否湊效取決于救援方案是否符合經(jīng)濟原理。第一個考驗是希臘的救援計劃。若希臘能做出財政和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整以重燃穩(wěn)固債務之希望，作為回報，就必須為其提供足夠但寧可失之慷慨。1500的資金以防止被迫違約。今后三年所需資金可能高達億歐元從經(jīng)濟的角度看，更重要的考驗

34、是在希臘和其他陷入困境的歐元區(qū)國家之間建立隔火帶。這很容易理解。那些國家盡管各有各的問題，但沒有一個像希臘那樣在劫難逃。葡萄牙的情況是最危險的，但有著良好的財政調(diào)整歷史記錄，因此，在一些合理假設條件下，其債務或能在一個可控水平上穩(wěn)固下來。西班牙和意大利盡管可能在長時期的高利率下 走向破產(chǎn)，但都不像希臘那樣不可挽回。 Europes policymakers must make those distinctions clearer. The vulnerable economies must step up the reforms they need to rein in deficits an

35、d boost growth. Portugal, especially, needs maintain to has the tools European Central Bank should demonstrate that it The action. create governments should pre-emptively there liquidity even if is panic. Euro-zone rs incompetence, Europes leadeliquidity lines. Thanks to extraordinary inter-governme

36、ntal that for paying it began. They are Greek have almost ensured that the rescue failed before today. 歐洲決策者需要分清其中的差別。疲弱經(jīng)濟體必須加快所需改革的步伐以控制赤字并刺激增長。葡萄牙尤其需要采取行動。歐洲央行必須證明，即使是在恐慌產(chǎn)生的情況下，它仍擁有維持流動性的工具。歐元區(qū)各國政府必須未雨綢繆，建立政府間流動性渠道。由于歐洲領導人舉措嚴重失當，救助希臘的行動在開始之前便已幾乎注定失敗?，F(xiàn)在他 們正在為此付出代價。 ，但是搜不到梗概，不知道和內(nèi)容有沒有聯(lián)系，Acropolis no

37、w關于標題：有個連續(xù)劇叫，Apocalypse 也不知道該劇的標準譯名。不過有部電影叫Now，中文名現(xiàn)代啟示錄 ”拿掉。，只好把“衛(wèi)城”“現(xiàn)代內(nèi)容跟本文標題還算貼切，故采納之。為了保留 0 0 0 收藏0 分享sometimes naive 3樓 發(fā)表于 2010-5-3 09:25 |只看該作者 Harry1028： Few, if any, European countries suffer from all of Greeces ills, but many scare investors. 歐洲沒有哪個國家像希臘那樣有如此之多的問題，但有多個國家 令投資者感到不安。 = 歐洲幾乎沒有哪

38、個國家像希臘那樣問題多多，但令投資者深感不安的卻不少。 Hence the necessity, even at this stage, of a show of financial force, linked to the construction of a stronger firewall between Greece and Europes other shaky countries. 因此，即使事態(tài)已發(fā)展到當前階段，顯示金融力量仍是絕對必要的，這與在希臘與其他搖搖欲墜的歐洲國家之間建立一道防火墻息息相關。 = 因此，即使事態(tài)已發(fā)展到當前階段，顯示能夠在希臘與其他搖搖欲墜的歐洲國家之間

39、建立一道堅固防火墻的金融實力是尤為必要的。 （回到題目，這個firewall大概就該像曾經(jīng)的Apocalypse吧，真是“雅典衛(wèi)城今安在”，咳咳） When the unthinkable suddenly becomes the inevitable, without pausing in the realm of the improbable, then you have contagion. 當不可思議突然變成無法避免，在不可能的世界中狂飆突進，你不可能獨善其身。 = 當不可思議的事情突然變成無法避免，若無法控制這種突變，經(jīng)濟危機就爆發(fā)了。 Contagion: The spreadin

40、g of an economic crisis from one geographical area to another. 經(jīng)濟危機 點評回復 引用 舉報 返回頂部 4 樓 Somers 發(fā)短消息 發(fā)表于 2010-5-3 09:27 |只看該作者 “和女兒一起學英語”： 加為好友 “Apocalypse Now，中文名現(xiàn)代啟示錄，內(nèi)容跟本文標題還算貼切”： 當前在線 Somers 這片是科波拉的，背景是越戰(zhàn)。 積累 185 點 感覺是引希波戰(zhàn)爭的典故。 現(xiàn)金 1332 GBP 本周之星 神諭說，只有木墻才能抵擋波斯人，大多數(shù)人認為“木墻”是衛(wèi)城外圍的木制柵欄， 0 次那個誰誰誰（這幫人名字

41、我一個都記不住）力排眾議，指出 獎勵譯文“木墻”是海軍的隱喻。 次0 稍好？”岌岌可危的衛(wèi)城 在線時間“大概翻譯成 1287 小時 最后登錄 2011-4-5 閱讀權(quán)限100 主題31 精華1 帖子1190 積分 113 注冊時間 2009-12-13 原創(chuàng)譯作 34 篇 版主 UID 82064 帖子 1190 積分 113 注冊時間 2009-12-13 原創(chuàng)譯作 34 篇 點評回復 引用 舉報 返回頂部 shirley11201 5樓 發(fā)短消息發(fā)表于 2010-5-3 18:35 |只看該作者 So too Italy, which is heavily indebted to boot

42、. 加為好友 這個boot指的是意大利的那個靴子形的國土嗎？深陷入靴子 當前離線shirley11201 / 自己的債務危機中。是的話這里寫的就太妙啦！ 積累2 點 現(xiàn)金 204 GBP 本周之星 0 次 獎勵譯文 0 次 在線時間 95 小時 最后登錄 2011-2-14 閱讀權(quán)限 10 主題 7 精華 0 帖子 50 積分 17 注冊時間 2008-5-3 原創(chuàng)譯作 篇10 經(jīng)濟學人 UID 39106 帖子 50 積分 17 注冊時間 2008-5-3 原創(chuàng)譯作 篇10 點評回復 引用 舉報 返回頂部 6樓 levp 發(fā)短消息 發(fā)表于 2010-5-3 23:23 |只看該作者 深陷入靴

43、子/自己的債務危機中。是的話這里寫的就太妙啦 加為好友 深有體會 當前離線 levp 積累 0 點 現(xiàn)金0 GBP 本周之星 0 次 獎勵譯文 次0 在線時間 小時0 最后登錄2010-5-4 閱讀權(quán)限10 主題0 精華0 帖子1 積分0 注冊時間2010-5-3 原創(chuàng)譯作 0 篇 新人 新人, 積分 0, 距離下一級還需 2 積分 UID 100836 帖子1 積分0 注冊時間2010-5-3 原創(chuàng)譯作 0 篇點評回復 引用 舉報 返回頂部 7majer 樓 發(fā)短消息 發(fā)表于 2010-5-3 23:37 |只看該作者 回復 3# Somers 加為好友 當前離線 majer 改正的地方就不

44、說了，就說沒改的地方 積累 Hence the necessity, even at 4 點this stage, of a show of financial force, linked to the construction 現(xiàn)金 of a stronger firewall between Greece and Europes other shaky countries. 1295 GBP 因此，本周之星 即使事態(tài)已發(fā)展到當前階段，顯示金融力量仍是絕對必要的，這與在希臘與其他搖搖欲墜的歐洲國家之間建立一 0 次道防火墻息息相關。 獎勵譯文 次0 因此，即使事態(tài)已發(fā)展到當前階段，顯示能夠在

45、希臘與其他搖搖欲墜的歐洲國家之間建立一道堅固防火墻的金融實力 在線時間是尤為必要的。 1221 小時 最后登錄 我在這里傾向于link修飾2011-4-4 show。因為這時候要的是一種姿態(tài)，使人能夠重振信心。閱讀權(quán)限 翻譯的時候耍了個小聰明，我這樣說，link既可以修飾show，也可以修飾forece。（不過我覺得要是100 修飾force的話沒必要中間加個逗號） 主題 When the unthinkable suddenly 146 becomes the inevitable, without pausing in the realm of the improbable, then you have contagion. 精華 1 當不可思議突然變成無法避免，在不可能的世界中狂飆突進，你不可能獨善其身。 帖子 當不可思議的事情突然變成無法避免，756 若無法控制這種突變，經(jīng)濟危機就爆發(fā)了。 積分 Contagion: 237 The spreading of an economic crisis from one geographical area to another. 經(jīng)濟危機 注冊時間 2007-6-8 Contagion這個釋義里的關鍵詞是 原創(chuàng)譯作spreading，因此是危機的傳染162 篇