GDP與年份的的回歸分析宿遷27

1、統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué) 宿遷市歷年數(shù)據(jù)回歸分析金融一班 顧同飛 學(xué)號(hào)（1310031027）1GDP與年份的的回歸分析此圖分析運(yùn)用了拋物線模型所以SUMMARY OUTPUT回歸統(tǒng)計(jì)Multiple R0.997314541R Square 0.994636294Adjusted R Square0.993563553標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差41.20785999觀測值13方差分析dfSSMS回歸分析231489051574452.3殘差1016980.881698.0877總計(jì)123165885Coefficients標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差t StatIntercept45231292.0446022-321401814.07313X

2、Variable 1-45199.496823203.275-14.1104X Variable 211.291985630.79813914.147885生產(chǎn)總值擬合值200.65240.9246022247.03222.9839447278.26247.8895729335.59295.3791723375.93365.4527429454.2458.1102849542573.3517981655.06711.1772825826.85871.58673821064.091054.5801651320.831260.1575631522.031488.3189331706.281739.

3、0642742012.3935862308.306869=45231292.0446022-45199.49682x+11.29198563x總結(jié)：首先生產(chǎn)總值和年份的散點(diǎn)圖，歸納出回歸模型，建立模型后得出所設(shè)的的a,b,c的值，隨后求出擬合值；并作出擬合值和生產(chǎn)總值的折線圖，由上圖可知，兩數(shù)據(jù)的擬合程度較高，所以預(yù)測值可信度較高。2.GDP與財(cái)政收入的的回歸分析此圖分析運(yùn)用了拋物線模型所以SUMMARY OUTPUT回歸統(tǒng)計(jì)Multiple R0.995474736R Square0.990969949Adjusted R Square0.990149036標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差13.09027168觀測

4、值13方差分析dfSSMSFSignificance F回歸分析1206852.3206852.31207.1551.35E-12殘差111884.907171.3552總計(jì)12208737.2Coefficients標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差t StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%下限 95.0%上限 95.0%Intercept-63.519463916.500846-9.770959.31E-07-77.8277-49.2112-77.8277-49.2112X Variable 10.2556127770.00735734.744131.35E-120.239420.2718050

5、.239420.271805生產(chǎn)總值（億元）財(cái)政收入（億元）擬合值200.6511.279.236523623247.0314.3211.56236284278.2616.8717.96356285335.5919.7422.26162792375.9328.8532.57304735454.238.0752.579859454261.1775.02266122655.0692.14103.9222418826.85130.23147.83396081064.09205.76208.4755361320.83276.24274.10156031522.03333.33325.530851117

6、06.28381.94372.6275052=-63.51946391+0.255612777x總結(jié)：首先生產(chǎn)總值和財(cái)政收入的散點(diǎn)圖，歸納出回歸模型，建立模型后得出所設(shè)的的a,b,c的值，隨后求出擬合值；并作出擬合值和財(cái)政收入的折線圖，由上圖可知，兩數(shù)據(jù)的擬合程度較高，所以預(yù)測值可信度較高。3.GDP與年末存款余額的的回歸分析此圖分析運(yùn)用了拋物線模型所以SUMMARY OUTPUT回歸統(tǒng)計(jì)Multiple R0.997596673R Square0.995199121Adjusted R Square0.994762678標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差32.80233771觀測值13方差分析dfSSMSFSigni

7、ficance F回歸分析1245353124535312280.2474.16E-14殘差1111835.931075.993總計(jì)122465367Coefficients標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差t StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%下限 95.0%上限 95.0%Intercept-106.736136116.29018-6.552174.12E-05-142.591-70.8817-142.591-70.8817X Variable 10.880335380.01843647.751934.16E-140.8397590.9209120.8397590.920912生產(chǎn)總值（億元

8、）年末存款余額（億元）擬合值（億元）200.6591.7569.9031579247.03130.59110.7331128278.26158.59138.2259867335.59192.58188.6956141375.93229.36224.2083433454.2281.98293.1121935542355.71370.4056399655.06447.47469.9363579826.85607.09621.16917291064.09810.59830.01993841320.83997.811056.0372441522.031226.871233.1607221706.281

9、470.581395.36251619001565.90108622501874.01846925002094.102314=-106.7361361+0.88033538x總結(jié)：首先生產(chǎn)總值和年末存款余額的散點(diǎn)圖，歸納出回歸模型，建立模型后得出所設(shè)的的a,b,c的值，隨后求出擬合值；并作出擬合值和年末存款余額的折線圖，由上圖可知，兩數(shù)據(jù)的擬合程度較高，所以預(yù)測值可信度較高。4.GDP與城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入的的回歸分析此圖分析運(yùn)用了拋物線模型所以SUMMARY OUTPUT回歸統(tǒng)計(jì)Multiple R0.990065938R Square0.980230562Adjusted R Squar

10、e0.97843334標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差733.5040568觀測值13方差分析dfSSMSFSignificance F回歸分析12.93E+082.93E+08545.41441.01E-10殘差115918310538028.2總計(jì)122.99E+08Coefficients標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差t StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%下限 95.0%上限 95.0%Intercept3435.205351365.41549.4008231.37E-062630.9314239.4792630.9314239.479X Variable 19.6512996860.41325923.354

11、111.01E-108.74172210.560888.74172210.56088生產(chǎn)總值（億元）城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入(元)擬合值200.6546175371.738633247.0350415819.365912278.2655916120.776002355.5963726867.111006375.9372127063.418442454.281767818.82566854294688666.209781655.06109599757.385723826.851232011415.38251064.091378413705.056831320.831611916182.931521

12、522.031831118124.773011706.281884619903.024981963.2322382.926432320.2325828.44042=3435.205351+9.651299686x總結(jié)：首先建立生產(chǎn)總值和城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入的散點(diǎn)圖，歸納出回歸模型，建立模型后得出所設(shè)的的a,b,c的值，隨后求出擬合值；并作出擬合值和城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入的折線圖，由上圖可知，兩數(shù)據(jù)的擬合程度較高，所以預(yù)測值可信度較高。5.GDP與城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入的的回歸分析此圖分析運(yùn)用了拋物線模型所以SUMMARY OUTPUT回歸統(tǒng)計(jì)Multiple R0.98274801R Squ

13、are0.96579365Adjusted R Square0.962683982標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差0.094417125觀測值13方差分析dfSSMSFSignificance F回歸分析12.7686742.768674310.57772.07E-09殘差110.0980610.008915總計(jì)122.866735Coefficients標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差t StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%下限 95.0%Intercept8.1416438640.063119128.98897.61E-198.002728.2805688.00272X Variable 19.6168843205

14、5.46E-0617.623222.07E-098.42E-050.0001088.42E-05生產(chǎn)總值（億元）x城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入(元)ylnylny的擬合值y的擬合值200.6546178.4375004238.5856552145354.29978247.0350418.5253597548.6264307855577.13669278.2655918.6289134418.6793236255880.06811355.5963728.7596686718.7544314586338.71571375.9372128.8835015848.835213256872.01914454.

15、281769.0089583128.9279199737539.5665554294689.1556729719.0521700628537.04376655.06109599.3019163159.1955577439853.26098826.85123209.4189792379.3264434811231.11671064.09137849.5312637789.46723460312929.08371320.83161199.6877539799.69178875116184.16791522.03183119.8152572519.90259076119982.07221706.28188469.84405596