股票交易常識基本分析綜述(16個doc1個共).ppt

1、Will Chinese Stock Markets Mirror the Behaviour of the NASDAQ?-Where is the solution?Christopher Poll Chairman,Greater China Consultancy Ltd.,3 QUESTIONS RAISED HOW TO DEFINE A “WELL REGULATED MARKET”? WHAT RELEVANCE A PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO? IF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS ARE A STABILISING FACTOR FOR THE STO

2、CK MARKET, WHY ARE DEVELOPED MARKETS SO VOLATILE?HOW TO DEFINE A “WELL REGULATED MARKET”?The Financial Markets are Dynamic Business is “Proactive” But Regulators are “Reactive” not “Proactive The System of Regulation and Enforcement can never be completely Flexible and Dynamic Importance of Fiduciar

3、y ResponsibilityFinancial Infrastructure MAIN FACTORS FOR FUNDSGovernmentFinancialPolicemenInstitutional ManagersCentred aroundPublicInvestors23GovernmentRegulators and Central BankFinancial Policemen are advisors to(Follow and abide by Rules & Regulations)InvestorsInstitutionalQuoted CompaniesA

4、ccountants- Pensionson Stock MarketLawyers- Insurance Co.(life)and- Mutual FundsPrivatised IndustriesMerchant BanksPrivate InvestorPreviously NationalisedCommercial Banks- Direct- IndirectStock MarketPRIVATE SECTORLawyersAccountantsInvestmentBankersStockBrokersCommercialBanksConflict of Interest?Con

5、flict of Interest Who is the client? Who are the Financial Policeman Responsible to? Can Regulation be Protect with Financial Policemen being Proactive?INVESTORSInstitutionalPrivatePensionsInsuranceMutual FundsInvestorsConfidence=InvestorsEducationConfidenceEducationInvestorsInvestorProtection/Confi

6、denceTransparencyEducationInformation/ReportingAnalysisAccuracy of DataDisclosureTimelinessCompetetion = Accountability Easier and more effective enforcement. Increased efficiency reduces costs. Improved flexibility of the infrastructure to respond effectively and competitively.Efficient Infrastruct

7、ureTransparencyAccountabilityLeads to:A Chinese Tailor Made Solution for theChinese Fund IndustryInvestorsbehaviourStock InvestorsFund InvestorsSecuritiesDealersBrokersSecuritiesInvestmentAdvisorsFundManagersSecuritiesExchangeOTCFuturesExchangeSEC/CSRCCBC/PBCWHAT RELEVANCE A PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO?Chi

8、nese QuotedStocks CorporateProfits?NASDAQCorporate Profits?Confidence$1995 - 2000C$IF CONFIDENCE IS LOWTHEN MONEY FLOW IS MINUTECONFIDENCE$IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGHTHEN MONEY FLOW IS LARGEWhat is the Criteria For Investing?1. What do you think is the most important influence on the stock market in China

9、 today? The historic balance sheets and profit and loss accounts of the quoted companies- 6 The future prospects for corporate earnings-10 Government policy-62 Govt. investigation into mal practices15 The overall economic growth of the Chinese economy-27 Chinas entry into the WTO-82. How do you as a

10、n investor analyse the fair value of the companies you buy & sell? Bypriceearningsratio-35 Byrelationshiptonetassetvale-5 Bythelatestrumour-58 Bythebusinesssectorthecompanyisinvolvedin-21 Bymultipleofsalesrevenue-93. What do you think should be the average prospective price earnings ratio for no

11、n-technology stocks? under15times-0 15to25times-18 above25-1104. What do you think should be the average prospective price earnings ratio? under15times-0 15to25times-1 25to50-16 over50-1115. How do you measure investment risk? Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestock-31 Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestockm

12、arket-42 Byestimatingtheaccuracyofdisclosedinformation-16 Byestimatingtheriskoffraud-17 Byanalysinghistoricreturns-13 Bycomparingwithandadjustingforariskfreemeasuresuchasadepositrate-8At what level do you think the Shanghai A share market will be on 31st December 2001? most think it will be above 25

13、00 Today it is 2140At what level do you think the Shanghai B share market will be on 31st December 2001? mostthinkitwillbeabove200 Todayitis183IF INSTITUTIONAL FUNDS ARE A STABILISING FACTOR FOR THE STOCK MARKET, WHY ARE DEVELOPED MARKETS SO VOLATILE?Factors Effecting Investment Time Horizons Confid

14、ence in Long Term Trends Confidence in Information Disclosure Volatility of Markets Liquidity of Markets Profit Forecast Public Scrutiny of PerformanceEACM100:EqualWeighted(RebalancedAnnually)IndexofHedgeFundIndicesdescribedonPreviousSlideReturn and Risk Tradeoff: 1/1990-12/2000EACM 100Event DrivenR

15、elative ValueS&P/Lehman Port.Global MacroEquity Hedge Lehman BondS&P 5000.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%Annualized Standard DeviationAnnualized ReturnRisk and Return of Stock, Bond and Hedge Funds: 1/1990-12/2000100% EACM 10050% S&P 500 and 50% Leh. Bros. Bond100% Lehman Bo

16、nd100% S&P 5000.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%Portfolio Annualized Standard DeviationPortfolio Annualized ReturnChina versus Western Markets Limited sense of Accountability Little Understanding of Risk Chinese Business Philosophy Reluctance to Incentivise Executive Managers Entrepreneurs Understand